Finally! What is the probability that someone can actually explain Baye's Theorem simply? The answer is Bionic Turtle (oh and thanks for not using cancer as an example. Ive actually survived cancer and it's pretty weird having it used so casually)
Awesome video! Especially the diagram/figure you used to describe was extra helpful. Now I'm modeling my problems with this kind of diagram and Bayes' Theorem has never been this easy before!! Thanks a lot!!! God bless u!
This concept has been very confusing to me. I have problem with calculating probability in general. My professor's lecture is rather useless. I spent few hours searching for better answers until I found your video. Your video helped a lot.. It clears my mind. Thank you for your time and your excellent illustration!
@apanapane thanks for correction! Candidly, I was not aware of distinction between probability/likelihood; i thought maybe it could implicitly be considered a posterior probability; or Gujarati seems to say that "posterior probability" would be okay here. Questions: 1. is posterior probability ~ likelihood, and 2. can you point me to reference? Thanks for your comment (no worries on nit-pick: being précise is good and you are polite about it). Thanks, David
@england7676 yes, thank you, you are absolutely correct of course. I meant to use P(U | G)P(G) + P(U | G')P(G') which is equal to yours and equals P(U). I'll see if i can annotate a correction. thanks you
It was highly informational, but I had a doubt, at around 2:08 shouldn't the equation be: p(G|U)={P(U|G)P(G)}/{P(U and G)+P(U and G')} ? I would appreciate if you clarify...
In this video I explain what conditional probabilities are and I show how to calculate them in Excel and how to interpret them, using Solver to implicitly apply Bayes' theorem. Though in spanish, subtitles in english are available: ua-cam.com/video/rxHd7td6Xo0/v-deo.html.
I couldn't solve this problem on my own.. Would you mind giving me some advice? I tried to use what I learned from your lecture to solve this problem. Still couldn't. thank you very much! Consider the hypothesis H = the earth is flat. A medieval person is certain that this hypothesis is true. He now receives evidence that the earth is round. What will be his posterior belief according to Bayes’ rule?
It's friday and I am at home studying for the CFA level I..... I was having problems understaind this concept.....thanks to this video.... i will go get drunk ;)
Actually, it's statistically incorrect to say that "given that the stock went up the probability that the economy went up was x%". You see, either the stock went up or it didn't, which would correspond to probabilities 100% or 0%. The correct term to use, to be a bit nitpicky, is "given that the stock went up, the the likelihood that the economy went up is x%". It's important to separate probability from likelihood. Other than that, nice video. :) Sorry for being such a nit-picking person.
i learnt in India. my school teacher was equally good. only better. love David's explanation but my teacher was awesome too. I learnt through these tree forms.
my lecturer took 30 minutes but only making me more confused
you took 6 minutes and I'm all clear! thank you
Finally! What is the probability that someone can actually explain Baye's Theorem simply? The answer is Bionic Turtle (oh and thanks for not using cancer as an example. Ive actually survived cancer and it's pretty weird having it used so casually)
Awesome video! Especially the diagram/figure you used to describe was extra helpful. Now I'm modeling my problems with this kind of diagram and Bayes' Theorem has never been this easy before!! Thanks a lot!!! God bless u!
+Saad Abdullah You're welcome! We are glad that our video helped you so much!
God bless you people, who post such well-presented videos for the casually curious!
best explanation I've seen on UA-cam
This concept has been very confusing to me. I have problem with calculating probability in general. My professor's lecture is rather useless. I spent few hours searching for better answers until I found your video. Your video helped a lot.. It clears my mind. Thank you for your time and your excellent illustration!
@2:05 P(U) in the denominator is not P(U|G)+P(U|G') its actually P(UG)+P(UG') which intern transforms to P(U|G)P(G)+P(U|G')p(G')
the best explanation, I have seen so far!)
I love using the tree approach. its so much easier to me . THANK YOU FOR POSTING THIS.
Lucid and clear explanation. Thank you David
The tree help us a lot when we do the Bayes theorem question! Thanks :D
@apanapane thanks for correction! Candidly, I was not aware of distinction between probability/likelihood; i thought maybe it could implicitly be considered a posterior probability; or Gujarati seems to say that "posterior probability" would be okay here. Questions: 1. is posterior probability ~ likelihood, and 2. can you point me to reference? Thanks for your comment (no worries on nit-pick: being précise is good and you are polite about it). Thanks, David
@england7676 yes, thank you, you are absolutely correct of course. I meant to use P(U | G)P(G) + P(U | G')P(G') which is equal to yours and equals P(U). I'll see if i can annotate a correction. thanks you
had to watch it twice, but made total sense. thanks so much!
Thank you so much!
You just helped me pass my stats mid term!
You explained this so much better than my statistics professor and my textbook combined. Thank you, you're brilliant!
THANK YOU!!! Really helpful. Clearest and easiest explanation so far :)
+Lorena You're welcome! We are happy to hear that our video was helpful. Thank you for watching!
Thank you . I hope you make more like these. Explained very well with the aid of pictures.
Seems like it means it is easier for indices to go up than individual stocks?
It was highly informational, but I had a doubt, at around 2:08 shouldn't the equation be:
p(G|U)={P(U|G)P(G)}/{P(U and G)+P(U and G')} ? I would appreciate if you clarify...
I'm not gonna go so far and say that i love you, but that was a major help!
@apanapane So can you please explain the difference between probability and likelihood? Maybe adding in a short example? Thanks!
Great video. Great delivery.
great video. Graphics helped a lot.
In bayes theorm if I know the value of p(symptoms/disease) let's 0.3 so,can I take p(~ymtm/dise)= p(ymtm/~dise) = (1-p(symtm/dis))?
how do i calc the prob a given a.P(A/A).i may sound dumb but pls help
In this video I explain what conditional probabilities are and I show how to calculate them in Excel and how to interpret them, using Solver to implicitly apply Bayes' theorem. Though in spanish, subtitles in english are available: ua-cam.com/video/rxHd7td6Xo0/v-deo.html.
GREAT VISUALS HELPED A LOT!!!!!!!
very simplistic approach...thanks
thanks a lot.. This video was very helpful when i was preparing for my stats exam.
That is very beautifully explained!!!!
Awesome video... very easy to understand.
Rock-solid video; very well-explained
@england7676 okay, i annotated correction @ 2:01
Finally something helpful
The best explanation. Thank you
Visual was great, thanks.
Great vid. Helped a lot
I couldn't solve this problem on my own.. Would you mind giving me some advice? I tried to use what I learned from your lecture to solve this problem. Still couldn't. thank you very much!
Consider the hypothesis H = the earth is flat. A medieval person is certain that this hypothesis is true. He now receives evidence that the earth is round. What will be his posterior belief according to Bayes’ rule?
Hello, I wonder whether the fraudulent transaction examples used in the instructional video Fundamentals of probability is incorrect. My ans is 9.09%
That was great. Really helped my understanding!
thnx for that it really helped me get the idea of bayes formula
thank you so much!! you just saved my life
It's friday and I am at home studying for the CFA level I..... I was having problems understaind this concept.....thanks to this video.... i will go get drunk ;)
Pretty intuitive, thanks a lot!
wow! thank you for the great lecture.
Thank you so much!
You're welcome!
Great explanation.. I wish u were a professor in my college :)
Good explanation !
It seems like decisions are not dichotomized in just yes or no as many might think,other wise ti would result in a 50/50% chance for every node...
شكرا جزيلا على الشرح الممتع
the bottom equation at 2:05 is wrong.
very nice explanation.
Thank you for watching!
Very helpful. Thank you!
Finally I got it, Thanks a 1,000,000
like this very much, thanks teacher..
Exactly. It is likelyhood estimation. It means the result is fixed.
really helpful really thx really clear explanation
You're welcome! Thank you for watching!
thanks alot David!
Yes sure, this was helpful
love you, master......
thks for the video, very helpful!
Thank you very clear.
Thanks ..good example..
but its written there...Econ grow=G and Up=U !! or maybe I got ur question wrong...donno!
nice video great job
Bayes Formula is Just finding things in Reverse Direction using Probability + Conditional probabilities
nice, thx for the video!
THANK YOU!
It was helpful thank you
really helpful thanks!
VERY GOOD!
thank you!!!
Thanks
Thank you for watching!
thanks, i dig that now.
THANK YOU..
This should be applied to government instead of our current political dogma.
very good !
Thank you for watching!
I LOVE YOU!
that's my youtube audience, drunks...you've inspired me to drink now, too
simple and great :)
We are happy to hear that our video was helpful! Thank you for watching!
nice video thank you
How about defining U and G early on in the video? Half of the audience is going to tune out at that point.
thanks
thanks....
that was great
kia baat hay. MeansSuperb
Thank you for watching!
ممتاز
Actually, it's statistically incorrect to say that "given that the stock went up the probability that the economy went up was x%".
You see, either the stock went up or it didn't, which would correspond to probabilities 100% or 0%. The correct term to use, to be a bit nitpicky, is "given that the stock went up, the the likelihood that the economy went up is x%".
It's important to separate probability from likelihood. Other than that, nice video. :) Sorry for being such a nit-picking person.
so which door did the little guy go through!?!
just kidding xD
hahaha, oh wow, that was easy to understand.
Indian education system should learn to explain things visually, with real life examples
i learnt in India. my school teacher was equally good. only better. love David's explanation but my teacher was awesome too. I learnt through these tree forms.
lol
Connect is useless!
Thank you!