Great video. I didn't know there was formal bubble theory with general deliniated stages of development. I'm somewhat gambling on the current risk asset bubble. I think it's different this time because of the unprecedented Fed monetary stimulus. Will be watching very closely for any signs of inflation and Fed hawkishness that may lead to a quick unwinding of their bond holdings and lending rates. And watching China now on rumor of them dumping US bonds. Someday I hope to stop all this nonsense and just sit in CDs and AAA bonds paying like 10% or more.
This video actually aged incredibly well, what with the covid-19 correction happening only 2 years after this video posted. I wonder what phase of the market we are in now, however? (Nov 2023).
Brilliant video, thanks Tim! IMHO you can chuck CAPE etc out of the window as we are still at emergency interest rate levels, and the US tax bill has just pushed the "melt up" one stage back in the cycle - it's a huge boost to earnings...
Somaro Jamie - I buy and sell the High Yield ETF HYG in a kind of dance with Fed policy. I never hold too much for long, no set buy or sell pattern. But I always stick in for the monthly dividends. And PFF is another ETF composed of preferred shares that pays like 6%. But I'm told it's dangerous because of callable and rate risk.
Not sure I agree with you there Dan. My video merely aimed to give a synopsis of a popular paper out at the time, after several of my viewers asked for one. Naturally, no-one (including Jereny Grantham, the author) has the power to 100% predict what will happen to markets - his thoughts (and those of others) are however a useful framework which can help investors as they weigh up their own asset allocations. After a spell of stock market exuberance (which seems to be creeping back now), his cautious thoughts remain relevant for those who have never lived through a large equity market correction. Whilst I am something of a long-term optimist when it comes to the global economy and markets, that does not preclude me from analysing what people like Grantham have to say about the short-medium term.
I disagree with you Sir. As for today 09/06/2020 we have seen all things done by central banks especially FEDs to keep the Stocks go up. To start, the gentleman mentioned Tax Cut from Trump which automatically pumped trillions on Shares Buybacks. A lot of Banking Guardrails put in place by Obama were removed by Trump to create the illusion of the “Roaring Economy”. FEDs Repo Operation last year buying Trash Corporate Bonds, the same ones that profited from Tax Cut. Trillions of free money was rained down on people to “help” them dealing with Covid-19. I mean damn al these for sure will throw any forecast off because are unconventional, not to mention even illegal moves those done from FEDs.
Great video. I didn't know there was formal bubble theory with general deliniated stages of development. I'm somewhat gambling on the current risk asset bubble. I think it's different this time because of the unprecedented Fed monetary stimulus. Will be watching very closely for any signs of inflation and Fed hawkishness that may lead to a quick unwinding of their bond holdings and lending rates. And watching China now on rumor of them dumping US bonds. Someday I hope to stop all this nonsense and just sit in CDs and AAA bonds paying like 10% or more.
Tek Sight buy crypto. Precious metals. And mining stocks. There is your hedge.
crazy reading this comment in 2022
This video actually aged incredibly well, what with the covid-19 correction happening only 2 years after this video posted. I wonder what phase of the market we are in now, however? (Nov 2023).
Looking back, this video has aged very well. Jan 11th 2018 video goes live. Jan 26th 2018 Market top. Market corrected ~9% by February 2018.
Excellent analysis and teaching method! Thank you for what you do!
Thank You. Good quality, very informative and a person with passion , for what he does !
Looks like you got this right but it seems way more applicable to what is going on right now
Agree. Don’t recall anything as mad as this in 2018 when the video was made. Sounds much more like the last few months.
@@rinmlo and only getting worse...
Brilliant video, thanks Tim! IMHO you can chuck CAPE etc out of the window as we are still at emergency interest rate levels, and the US tax bill has just pushed the "melt up" one stage back in the cycle - it's a huge boost to earnings...
Another great video Tim. I wonder if you could add the Boom in Kodak's share price this week to the "froth" or over exuberance in the market today!
Is it possible to buy any non junk bonds at a decent interest rate now?
Somaro Jamie - I buy and sell the High Yield ETF HYG in a kind of dance with Fed policy. I never hold too much for long, no set buy or sell pattern. But I always stick in for the monthly dividends. And PFF is another ETF composed of preferred shares that pays like 6%. But I'm told it's dangerous because of callable and rate risk.
Never heard of a melt up before! Thanks for the info!
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Don't just look at Shiller P/E, judge it in relation to interest rates. Shiller P/E is expensive at 60 given current interest rates.
Buy the dip
Sell when you cant find anything worth buying. Unfortunately you get fooled by suddenly too many new speculative opportunities.
You were wrong Sir
Not sure I agree with you there Dan. My video merely aimed to give a synopsis of a popular paper out at the time, after several of my viewers asked for one. Naturally, no-one (including Jereny Grantham, the author) has the power to 100% predict what will happen to markets - his thoughts (and those of others) are however a useful framework which can help investors as they weigh up their own asset allocations. After a spell of stock market exuberance (which seems to be creeping back now), his cautious thoughts remain relevant for those who have never lived through a large equity market correction. Whilst I am something of a long-term optimist when it comes to the global economy and markets, that does not preclude me from analysing what people like Grantham have to say about the short-medium term.
You can't say anybody's wrong unless you have your own rebuttal
@@KillikFinanceVideos good presentation! It looks like we are approaching this moment.
Melt up bro
I disagree with you Sir. As for today 09/06/2020 we have seen all things done by central banks especially FEDs to keep the Stocks go up.
To start, the gentleman mentioned Tax Cut from Trump which automatically pumped trillions on Shares Buybacks. A lot of Banking Guardrails put in place by Obama were removed by Trump to create the illusion of the “Roaring Economy”. FEDs Repo Operation last year buying Trash Corporate Bonds, the same ones that profited from Tax Cut. Trillions of free money was rained down on people to “help” them dealing with Covid-19. I mean damn al these for sure will throw any forecast off because are unconventional, not to mention even illegal moves those done from FEDs.