I have to admit he is consistent. He was arrogant and smug predicting Trump would lose. He is still arrogant and smug after Trump won and his prediction was WRONG.
His “Keys” make sense. However, in this election, he was ridiculously biased in interpreting his own “Keys”. One Key is “No serious contest for the Party nomination”. Yet, he totally ignored the historical fact that the Democratic Party elite of Obama, Pelosi, et al, staged a SOFT COUP against the winner of their own Democratic Party Primary. 🙄
@beberivera7011 you look for rasism desperately. Fact is overwhelming majority of the country is not racist and sexist. Refer to Wisconsin senate vs presidential race for the sexism... And for the rasism argument.. Well there certainly is rasism when you see so many black people say they are voting Harris because she is black. Show me 1 person who has said he is voting for Trump because he is white.. Who is rasist. I am waiting!
But the point is that we still elected him. Which this video is about, why somebody was elected . So the argument on the reaction isn't valid considering he was elected twice so you can't blame racism this time. @@beberivera7011
@@beberivera7011 The Democrats have been bleeding minority voters for years. Enough of the weird social issues and get back to helping the working class. It's that simple.
Best so far! 👍👍👍👍👍👍 Now, he's in Stage 1 of the grieving process - "denial". Next comes "anger" and then "bargaining".. when he gets to "acceptance" he might have something useful to say.
@@pexxajohannes1506I went to a top 50 university and had junior professors, some not even 2 years into teaching. 65k a semester, 2 semester a year. 3k at community college and 7/8 professors I’ve had have at least one doctorate and have no political lean. It’s a scam with a side of brainwashing guaranteed. Leaving that school saved my brain.
He was biased in applying the keys. He gave Kamala contest even though there was no primary. He gave Kamala long and short term economy, even though family buying power has dropped (GDP is no longer connected to individuals) He didn't count the immigration crisis as social unrest. He didn't count the Afghanistan withdrawal and Ukraine as foreign policy failures.
1 more key he failed to apply is the scandal key. The American people found out Joe Biden doesn't have the mental capacity to run the country, and the administration covered it up.
well remember Dems have blamed every racial/victim/gender group for failing them except for black women....this guy likely bought into the traditional viewpoint that all such groups should vote as they are mandated to
Most of you guys are being unfair to him. I think his keys are a bit off in the way they predict elections, but to accuse him of bias when he predicted a Trump win, against the vast majority of the polls, in 2016?
but how can you explain his trump prediction in 2016? i think he tries to be as little biased as possible when calculating his keys. at the end of the day he has an 80% success rate
The fact that he blames misogyny, racism and xenophobia should tell you how arrogant and bias this guy really is.. People dont have the same voting priorities as you do.. that doesn’t make them misogynistic, racist or xenophobic just because they didn’t put your issues at the top of their list.
Exactly! My concerning issues on voting for a president are not based if they prioritize trans operations, abortions and other freak show issues, mine like the rest of the country are concerned about a roof over their head and not having to work 3 fulltime jobs just to have one. We would like a nights rest too if that is at all possible and maybe some extra's like some groceries after paying the rent. The rags I wear, a doctor, transportation, that all comes last in priority with the bidenomics economy that was going to continue and get even worse for struggling Americans. What makes anyone think that will change with Harris in charge, she's already in charge and the country is a mess.
The main issue he lives in a rich white neighbourhood, while everyone else has to suffer the consequences of the retttttarded leftist ideology in the real world. Obviously he'll act like a delusional boomer about it
The economy is factored in twice into the keys, and exit polls showed it was mostly Republicans who were going to vote for Trump anyway that cared about the border as their #1 issue.
@@deckofcards87when your entire career is based on making predictions on elections I’m certain that getting it wrong will also mean losing your job too since no one is going to rely on you. Just saying
Clinton election and re-election, Bush re-election, Obama re-election were so obviously going to happen I dont think you'd need "keys" to predict them.
@@wildie__3956 ...NBC is spinning off MSNBC and others. This election will signal the extinction of leftist cable news networks, as they've been exposed for massive, wholesale lies. Only Fox News and Fox Business will survive. Your prediction will suffer like Lichtman's.
@@philipm5043It also doesn't help that he flops back and forth on whether his keys predict a popular vote, electoral college, or combined victory to make his record look better. His keys are way too subjective, and his methods are as unscientific as the polls. There is a control for bias, and it bit him in the ass when his own biases became unreasonable.
First time I heard this guy speak and I hate him already. His arrogance is just off the charts. Won’t even try to say even for a little bit that he was wrong. Not a real man.
@@parhhesiaYou can say it verbally in 10 seconds but in 6:00 he goes on a temper tantrum about everyone else around him his wrong. Actions speak louder than words.
I am not defending Alan, but he has every right to disrespect the American people. They just voted in a rapist, pathological liar, misogynist, racist, adulterer, and supreme con-artist. So, yeah, the American people fully merit being disrespected. Of course, I don't mean the ones who didn't vote for the criminal. For those, I feel very sorry for them to have co-exist with imbeciles, and have to suffer crooks being in charge of their country.
Then perhaps we should say that an uninformed electorate is the greatest threat to democracy. Anyone that intentionally or unintentionally votes against their own best interest really deserves no respect because society as a whole suffers the consequences.
@@yohan2437 You don't get to decide what other peoples' interests are, dimwit. Learn some humility, idiotic comments like that are why you drive people away.
The key system is actually a useful system, but it wasn’t applied correctly. He’s right that elections are a referendum on incumbents, not campaigns. If people have less money in their pocket, they’ll usually vote for the party not in charge, regardless of candidates. If the Republican Party fails to improve people’s lives over the next 4 years, they will suffer the same fate.
This time around there were many of his so-called "keys" that actually were almost of no importance or relevance and seemed to not take into account one or more intangibles that shouldn't be dismissed, like the last pre-election jobs report that only added 12,000 jobs instead of a hoped for 100 thousand jobs???
But that means that using recessions as a metric for the short- and long-term economic keys is wrong. The system is thus flawed, and it should be as humans are emotional beings. Rational homo-economicus does not exist. Of course, all this plays into the idea of factoring misinformation, which makes perfect sense in a digital age.
Open border is another significant factor played here . Litchmen ignored fundamental issues and used misinformation to make judgement. Americans actually realized who is real dictator in the country .
Yes, I went through the keys and it was very different from what he was saying. He wanted things to shake out a certain way and he couldn't overcome his own bias.
he only judges the sitting party not the opposition, its what they've done over the 4 years he basis the keys on. nothing to do with which party he supports as he has said forever, hes not biased he just got this wrong due to the changes the dems did with the leader, ive always found him fair and honest, maybe you just havent seen enough of him to judge fairly.
@@billymanilli There were likely just as many or more voters who voted for Kamala simply because she was a woman as those who voted for Trump simply because he wasn't.
@@billymanillimisogyny had nothing to do with it either. People will vote for a woman if she has good policies. Kamala basically said she would change nothing during bidens term, which means she'll repeat the same policies. Nobody wants more of the same.
Wasn't his name, "Allan"? Are not "ego" and "emotions" two, rather than one, keys? I'm in tune to that discord... Such a melody is in leiu of fun, no mistake about it... 🤓🎹🎼🤡📃🔍
Classic shoot the messenger. His track record and the fact that NOBODY saw such a decisive tRump victory doesn’t make him a clown. I sense extreme disappointment… if so, join the (huge) club.
Is predicting 8/10 elections even that impressive? Some of them are just obvious. I think I predicated 5/6. 2024 felt like Trump would win, clear message again, economics and immigration on his side, Democrats fumbled it on picking the right candidate, had a weak message and took some damage over all the woke stuff. 2020 felt like it would go to Biden, largely due to the pandemic and Trump didn't debate well either. 2016 felt like Trump, a maverick candidate and outsider with a clear message promising to fight for Americans, v Clinton a Washington careerist, struggling with the FBI email issue hanging over her. 2008 and 2012 Obama was clear favourite, great candidate, clear message of hope and change, after the Iraq fiasco and credit crunch. 2004 I really thought Kerry would win, but got that completely wrong.
You lied to the Democrats and your keys were completely useless because you interpreted the keys according to what you wanted and not based on the realities on the ground. Who cares about a malfunctioning key?
People need to understand what Lying actually is. A lie is when you know something is incorrect and you say it anyway. It is impossible to lie about who will win an Election, because there is no way to actually know who will win. He thought she would win, he was simply Wrong but it's not a Lie
"Lied"??? He expressed his opinion based on a system he's worked with for decades. Believe it or not, opinions are neither truthful nor false, they are simply opinions. This time his system failed him. That's not a lie, it's an error.
@57Strudel , I listened to him several times discussing his keys and it was easy to tell that his analysis was far removed from objectivity based on his famous keys. He was literally predicting the outcome he wanted. The last interview I heard from him was telling in that he only questioned polls results that favored Trump, and kept saying the pools' results were understating the Democrats voters. I started questioning his magic keys even more from that moment. Finally, to err is human, but he needs to admit that he was wrong and stop blaming people like Elon Musk for the failure of his keys.
Maybe he needs another key to explain why Harris got 12 million less votes than Biden, while Trump essentially got the same number of votes that he had in 2020.
@@sirtom14 What utter rubbish. Trump was 2,000,000 votes down, lol. Trumps votes were also 8,630,271 LESS than Bidens. Trump can only beat women . Can't beat a man.
Except he's predicted wins for Reagan, Bush, and Trump. He's mentioned many times that when he predicted Trump back in 2016, it made him very unpopular in DC.
@@Newbie_John Don't explain things to people who love Trump. They don't see things for what they are at all. Problem is, democrats are just as clueless.
@ read my post after this one. I admit 1992 2016 were tough to pick. 1992 had Perot as a third party to make it tricky and 2016 was tough because Trump was inexperienced. However i felt the energy leaning Trump in 2016. If you look at both of those elections, Trump won by a total of 70,000 votes and three swing states and Bill Clinton one with a minority of the vote. Those two were hard to call. But every other election since 1980 were obvious. 2000 was harder but Gore was a horrible candidate. 1972 was easy has hell while 1976 was tough but I’d have picked Carter. Cmon, if you’re a political junkie 90% of President elections are easy. This professor is a pinhead.
@@Frankaziza1 Keep in mind that in 1982, Reagan's popularity was low and a lot of people thought he would not win re-election, but the keys said otherwise. Obviously the former changed, but even the "easy" elections sometimes weren't easy when he made the prediction. Romney was the favorite until very late in the campaign, even 2004 was far from a guarantee.
The guy's a joke! He allowed his bias to influence his interpretation of the keys. He's just totally discredited himself and nobody should ever put a mic in front of him again.
The whole country is part of the problem, including this guy. Democrats and republicans are both equally responsible for the problem. Both sides are not based in reality anymore, just completely clueless as a whole.
He's an excellent history professor, doubt he's going to have trouble with employment anytime soon. He's not making any excuses for his error, he's had a good track record regardless.
@Deathkill06 lol it sounded to me like he is. Bro got waited till the whole map turn red then blamed elon musk and all other factors. The whole world can see what was going to happen months away except for him and while he's high in his imaginary keys.
Why not go an pay someone to TEACH YOU how to pay attention? You nit wits come on here posting foolishness and donl't know a damn thing. The man ALSO predicted Trump winning in 2016 and his loss in 2020. get over your brainless worship of Trump for a minute...THINK!!!! Or just pay attention,.
He's right. Racism and sexism DEFINITELY played a part. If you think otherwise then you are a fool, which is what I think you are for making that comment.
5:10 she says maybe a 14th key to fix your prediction. As she finishes her question the time is 5:14. Trump is being removed per 14th amendment on Jan 6th. Trump was born on the 14th
@@georgemorgan6119 Trump didnt build wall or have mexico pay for it. Why should we trust him on any of that? He didn't do anything about woke in 2016. Damn maga cant think.
@@georgemorgan6119 Its all that and some sexism. Come now. We know women are the first to hate on another one. plenty of men see having a woman leader as emasculating or that they would be too weak to stand up to other leaders. Worlds filled with that.
Technically the system he made would have been right had he properly assigned those "keys". "Charisma" is not a Kamala trait by any stretch of the imagination. 😂
The economy is where he went wrong. They (mainstream media, economists, government officials) keep saying the economy is great, wonderful, never better! However, everyday Americans are struggling. You can say it is amazing until the end of time, but if it doesn't translate into daily living, you will lose that argument. He sounds very bitter.
@@sec9788It is true that the economy was great. It was great for them (the rich and politicians), but not for the average person. Therefore, they were correct. When they spoke, just change the perspective, and you will see what they are truly saying. Liars.
Everyday Americans parents smart enough to understand inflation and supply and demand. We have a horrible education system and most Americans are not that intelligent. Fact.
Yeah I wanted Harris to win and wanted to go off what he was saying but I was always confused running his keys myself said Trump would win because of the economy he still has a good system he was just biased in this election and al gore was debatable a lot said gore won with independent recounts in Florida The keys itself being right has a nearly perfect track record still him himself got his own keys wrong. But I can respect giving a bold prediction people like Nate silver are cheap saying it’s 50/50 or 60/40 because you’ll never be wrong saying either side could win
That's because most people are completely economically illiterate, they don't seem to grasp that we live in a free market and the President doesn't control the price of goods. Prices are high because people are buying the goods, there is no incentive for corporations (whose primary objective is to make money) to lower prices. Basic supply and demand. The only recourse is to increase wages, and if people think that is going to be Trump and the Republican's objective, the American people are greatly mistaken. Trump and Republican's have and always will be on the side of corporations, not working people. Ignorance has won yet again. When will people wake up, Trump is not coming to save them, just another one of his grifts
CNN is becoming more of a comedy show than a news channel. People don’t come here to see the news anymore…they come for the meltdowns, false propaganda, and a laugh. 😅
Exactly. He admitted this in countless interviews he wanted Harris to win. That's when I knew his prediction was bullsh**. In his 13 key model he checked off, "Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero." He gave the Biden/Harris team that and I'm like WHAT!!! Harris neither Biden are charismatic. He also checked off for them, "Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term." which is a lie because The Israel/Palestine conflict was a huge form of social unrest in America and around the world in general. I believe this is specifically why Harris narrowly lost Michigan, one of the most heavily populated Arab American states. He checked off for them "Long-Term and Short-Term economy" and he cities a bunch of magazines and articles explaining why inflation is down. But what he didn't realize is perception is everything. Yes inflation maybe down but the average person pockets is still hurting. Purchasing power is down, but he wouldn't understand that because he is rich. So, it was no surprise to me his prediction was totally off. And he's openly called Trump in interview after interview, "A danger to democracy" which tells you he was rooting for the Democrats.
No kidding. This Lichtman is a hack with an massive ego. I am so tired of Elon Musk, the Renaissance man of the 21st century, who has done more for humanity than anyone else being disrespected. Don't bet against Elon. You will lose EVERY time. Yeah, I love the guy!
@@Boris80b by doing nothing, just speaking his mind, like the democrats. If youre poor, just be poor. No need to have hissy fits over someone with money simply because you're sitting in a hole still. Keep trying to cope, Boris. LOL.
The economy is objectively good in every way. Inflation is right at the ideal point of 2%, the stock market is booming (don't tell me the stock market doesn't matter, you'd be bragging about it if it were under Trump and it matters for people's 401K), unemployment is at record lows, real wages are rising, US manufacturing is booming, etc.
@@Owen_loves_Butters Lol we have a 9.3% credit card delinquency rate (worst since Q1 2012) inflation over 4 years is 20%, and real wage growth since biden got in is 1%. At surface, jobs look good but full time jobs have dropped YoY and a huge reason employment, (a trailing variable) is high is that more americans then ever have a second or third job. Lastly CPI which has gone down is not close to the full picture as deficit spending does not translate into CPI (although it provides QE even if rates are high) and Real estate is not weighed in the CPI index which would show the worst housing market since 2008… Back to school skippy!
@Owen_loves_Butters None of those metrics matter for the average person. Most of the flipped voters don't have anything invested in the stock market or even in housing. Inflation may be down but the ratio between prices of goods and median income is drastically higher than it has historically been. Reigning inflation back to normal doesn't change this ratio, and it's what we feel the most. Unemployment is actually rising, and the jobs that are being made are lower paying government jobs rather than those in the private sector, and underemployment (people who are over qualified for the positions they are in) continues to spike. You can say Republicans are lying about the economy to people but the truth is that people vote because their quality of life is either better or worse than it has been, and clearly voting Trump indicates we are unhappy with the state of the US and want change.
Also manufacturing has dipped YoY by 250K jobs… And the stock market is a terrible way to judge the economy as in the fall of 2007 the stock market hit record highs one year later Lehman brothers failed… A few NPR statistics later some people believe they are ready to be the next Alan Greenspan, truly stunning.
He's got a book To sell I'm sure there will be a lot of recalls now You sound like one of those people that probably believed him and are still in shock that Trump has taken everything including from popular vote from the Latinos and blacks, Alan's agent made sure CNN went softball on him
Besides the fact that he attacked her intelligence, alluded to her sex life in a lewd manner, effectively used the b word, and generally has a track record for misogynistic statements, he is also totally unfit for the job moreso than any potus in US history. No other Presidents had top generals and their own former cabinet numbers calling them a threat to our way of life. Kamala should have won on the sole basis that she can at least show up to an interview and speak coherently about her resume. The only reasonable explanation is that people were voting for what his identity represents to them compared to hers. Even if it was for the cost of living factor, it's because they instinctively perceive him as the strong male capable of solving problems where in their opinion a woman cannot. There was an overwhelming consensus from economists that Kamala's plan was better at tackling inflation and growing the economy. She just didn't have the gender factor on her side since Trump has no factor on his side beyond that, and yet still managed to win.
@@woah455The average Trump voter didn’t vote for her not because she was a woman, but because she lied, she flip flopped, she dodged questions, she would word salad, she didn’t show herself, she would endlessly blame Trump instead of supporting herself, she shamed black people and women for not voting for her, she put on a facade depending on what audience she was talking to, she prided herself on being a middle class kid which is in speculation, she cared more about people outside the country than inside (supporting Israel but barely helping the people of the hurricane), she has openly called the 18-24 demographic “stupid”, she uses tax dollars for surgeries on illegal inmates, she sugarcoated Biden’s cognitive state, and the list may go on
The only way for Lichtman's system to approach being scientific is for each of its subjective keys to be decided by polls, which would be laughably ironic.
He is treated like a genius for predicting who gets elected while most of the time, the average person can tell you who is going to win. Knowing absolutely nothing still gives you a 50% chance of getting it right.
Exactly right. If you look at the ones he's correctly predicted, only a couple were surprising. 2024 was only surprising to the folks who watch mainstream media and/or live in a bubble. The fact that he didn't see a tsunami outweighs the fact that he didn't see a wave.
exactly. survivorship bias. Take 1000 'experts' to predict the last 10 elections. One of them... 1 in 2 to the 10th power...(1024) will get it right out of sheer chance. This dude very well may have 'survived' to this point out of sheer chance. Best not to listen to any of these types for future things etc etc.
I predicted Trump and am down here in uganda east africa! 🇺🇬 you only need to know politics to know this. Coming from a highly politicized country with a five tier political decentralized system, i predicted trump and got it right both times. And am no genius!
Remember he did pick Trump in 2016, so it's not like he didn't go against the grain of popular opinion, but his 13 Keys never accounted for a Presidential Canidate that was installed, not elected, that is a major reason Kamala Harris was universally panned from this election because she did not earn the right to eve be running for President, and the Democrats think the American people are stupid not to notice this as a major flaw in the canidate. His 13 Keys should of recognized the same, apparently he picked Trump again while he was going against Biden, but the moment they switch him out, he switched his pick and his 13 Keys system fell apart.
The Keys weren't wrong. He let his bias get in the way of a true prediction. Especially the charisma (fight me all you want trump appeals to alot of peoples grievances) ,and the economy and primary keys. Apply them objectively and a trump win would've been predicted.
Nope.....the Keys simply didn't account for modern era forces such as widespread disinformation, which DJT and team used extensively to convince millions they were disadvantaged victims of "the Establishment" when, in fact, these people have a life their grandparents couldn't dream of. People with that delusion will act irrationally and even vote for a convicted felon. This was Trump's greatest victory, and America's greatest political disaster.
Central PA Harris voter here. My neighbors (who I’m friendly with) all voted for Trump. Main concerns: identity politics (trans athletes competing in women’s sports, pronoun talk, etc), immigration, spending money on wars like Ukraine when Americans are hurting, and inflation. That’s it. That’s why we lost. We try to cater to every single group. Respect everybody……but you don’t have to get approval from every single group and their issue. Start giving people in the middle (slightly left….slightly right) what they need and want. Otherwise, you lose. It’s not about key theory from 30 years ago. I’m dumb and can see it. Why can’t you?
OR lets TRUE democracy prevail and let there be multiparty system and let each party cater to a group that they can then represent in the government and have policies which are sort of on ALL sides. As of today policies are mostly on side of lobbies and financiers rather than people since two party system has been compromised and people feel disenfranchised. Result is apparent with 13 million FEWER people voting THIS critical election. Worth another experiment
Absolutely correct. No Democrat ever looks to the true outcome to evaluate their dipsh’t predictions. Why would you want to do that. You stick to your guns bud. Just don’t expect a call from me for your 🤔.. Ummmm, services.
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #60 РОЖДЕНИЕ ЛОЛОЛОШКИ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YoR0pAV9FVQ/mqdefault.jpg)
People are enjoying the fact that he was wrong because he was so smug and arrogant in his prediction.
he wasn't t smug he said anything is possible
@@supersayan8179 he was pretty smug and arrogant here and in other interviews like the one with The Hill.
He is very smug
@@arielsanchez465
The Dems are always smug and arrogant.
Correct @@supersayan8179
He had the keys but Trump changed the locks
😂😂😂😂ouch..
Clever!!
❤it 😂
He has his keys but then allowed his own political leanings to affect his interpretation.
That is hilarious! I really appreciate the wittiness of you people commenting
I have to admit he is consistent. He was arrogant and smug predicting Trump would lose. He is still arrogant and smug after Trump won and his prediction was WRONG.
He must have been watching smug arrogant trump.
He hasn't been wrong, in being wrong. 😂
I made it to work 11 times out of 12. I'm an expert driver now 😎
Yea, but smug arrogant Trump wasn't wrong about his prediction. That's the big difference.
@@Justme-zo1hw
You mad 😆😆😆
This guy is not only insufferable, he's wrong
intuitively dishonest, disingenous. not competant to his academic credentials.
He's a total goof 😅
His “Keys” make sense. However, in this election, he was ridiculously biased in interpreting his own “Keys”. One Key is “No serious contest for the Party nomination”. Yet, he totally ignored the historical fact that the Democratic Party elite of Obama, Pelosi, et al, staged a SOFT COUP against the winner of their own Democratic Party Primary. 🙄
I see now he hates Trump, his personal feelings screwed him. Professor,what a joke they are.
Bro's ego got checked 😂
Dude I see you everywhere, from bodybuilding to UFC to politics
@bychen5011 I watch a lot of UA-cam 😂
😂😂😂😂😂 GOD is great not your stupid prophecy…. Or this stupid fake channel……
@DrBeauHightower what up man! 😂
I mean everybody has an ego, regardless of who you are, being wrong once out of eleven elections is bound to hurt your ego
You blame rasicm??? Obama was elected twice with overwhelming support
And the response to that was a polarization of racist constituents.
@beberivera7011 you look for rasism desperately. Fact is overwhelming majority of the country is not racist and sexist. Refer to Wisconsin senate vs presidential race for the sexism... And for the rasism argument.. Well there certainly is rasism when you see so many black people say they are voting Harris because she is black. Show me 1 person who has said he is voting for Trump because he is white.. Who is rasist. I am waiting!
That why the white voters have enough of colour people..
But the point is that we still elected him. Which this video is about, why somebody was elected . So the argument on the reaction isn't valid considering he was elected twice so you can't blame racism this time. @@beberivera7011
@@beberivera7011 The Democrats have been bleeding minority voters for years. Enough of the weird social issues and get back to helping the working class. It's that simple.
The keys were correct. How he interpreted them was incorrect.
Exactly
😂 He's biased af
Exactly. He gave the "economy" key to kamala. If you take that away all of a sudden his keys predict a trump win
Exactly 😂😂and he doesn’t want to admit that 😂😂
He literally said Biden and Kamala had a good economy it was 100% his interpretation
Blaming the population for being wrong is insane.
His stage 5 TDS skewed his interpretation of the keys.
Best so far! 👍👍👍👍👍👍
Now, he's in Stage 1 of the grieving process - "denial". Next comes "anger" and then "bargaining".. when he gets to "acceptance" he might have something useful to say.
Exactly. His keys if interpreted correctly should give a more accurate prediction
why dont u move to ruzzia ?
exactly
Where did you get your medical license from? Trump won because Musk helped him cheat. He's going to get caught. ;)
Blaming everyone and everything else but yourself is an interesting strategy to take….
“It’s a bold strategy cotton, let’s see how it plays out.”
Preach!🇺🇸
Imagine this dude being a professor in Dem shit university...😢
@@pexxajohannes1506and also imagine how many generations he "teach" , all those right now have deep psychological issues probably 😂
@@pexxajohannes1506I went to a top 50 university and had junior professors, some not even 2 years into teaching. 65k a semester, 2 semester a year.
3k at community college and 7/8 professors I’ve had have at least one doctorate and have no political lean.
It’s a scam with a side of brainwashing guaranteed. Leaving that school saved my brain.
So basically it's not the keys that got it wrong, it's the voters who voted wrong.
Whatever helps you sleep buddy.
Their prediction models were designed to predict what relatively normal people would do, not what MAGAs would do.
Funny!
@@onetwo19 there is something very wrong going on here...........
The keys were actually right
His interpretation was wrong
But he's too proud to clearly articulate that
Lmao 😂
I gradually began to hate them.
No, the keys were not wrong… I’m just a f&$kin moron
Hahaha🤣. True!!!
😅😅😅😅😂😂😂😂
Haha
No the keys were wrong AND I’m a f ing moron
Yes, a moron, and also a xenophobic, misogynist, racist who thinks Elon Musk is a smart guy.
Good. We've fixed one for 2028 - a few million to go.
He was biased in applying the keys. He gave Kamala contest even though there was no primary. He gave Kamala long and short term economy, even though family buying power has dropped (GDP is no longer connected to individuals) He didn't count the immigration crisis as social unrest. He didn't count the Afghanistan withdrawal and Ukraine as foreign policy failures.
Hiding biden senility and his removal from the campaign wud also turn the scandal key.
He also didn't count the Palestinian protests as social unrest.
1 more key he failed to apply is the scandal key. The American people found out Joe Biden doesn't have the mental capacity to run the country, and the administration covered it up.
Really the biggest problem I can see is that he is clearly biased, which does not allow him to objectively look at the keys
@@EricW-f7l Yes, you need two people, one from each side to interpret the keys.
He didn’t consider the 14th key, his emotion.
My rule # 1. Never listen to your emotion.
I don't know about never. Sometimes intuition is correct.
You didn't watch the video. Or you didn't understand it.
@@DeborahCoolerprobably both.
That's not your rule #1. It's not even your rule #3,427. It's not your rule at all.
@@HallofKnowledge sure, Spock. You must be fun at parties, you emotionless robot 🤣🤣
He can argue all day long, in the end HIS predicion was WRONG period.❤
So basically his keys didn't work because people didn't vote the way he wanted
Exactly !!
@@bigwill8145 hmmm…he predicted pre-Treason Donnie would win back in 2016 and then lose in 2020. I guess his record of predicting isn’t too bad.
Lol. He was paid to make this prediction
well remember Dems have blamed every racial/victim/gender group for failing them except for black women....this guy likely bought into the traditional viewpoint that all such groups should vote as they are mandated to
You know he predicted trump in 2016 right? You can try to split sides here but he's very neutral in his predictions.
"I was 100% wrong...but I want to sound right about it." ~Allan We Got Licht Man
Thats what jews do best lol
Typical behavior by a Democratic party supporter predicting elections "scientifically". Total BS-slinger.
😂😂😂😂😂😂
The keys were probably right, but the way he interpreted it was soo biased. But he's too proud.
This is what happens when your personal beliefs hide your process to interpret data.
When you wear a run like his, you can’t claim that your hair got in your eyes.
Most of you guys are being unfair to him. I think his keys are a bit off in the way they predict elections, but to accuse him of bias when he predicted a Trump win, against the vast majority of the polls, in 2016?
So corrupted by his mind even he not believe on his own key data. Remind me “lord of the Ring” 😅
but how can you explain his trump prediction in 2016? i think he tries to be as little biased as possible when calculating his keys. at the end of the day he has an 80% success rate
He's keys are set up to his bias.
He didn’t want to admit, he was wrong. Period. His explanations are, in my opinion, not credible.
The fact that he blames misogyny, racism and xenophobia should tell you how arrogant and bias this guy really is..
People dont have the same voting priorities as you do.. that doesn’t make them misogynistic, racist or xenophobic just because they didn’t put your issues at the top of their list.
Exactly! My concerning issues on voting for a president are not based if they prioritize trans operations, abortions and other freak show issues, mine like the rest of the country are concerned about a roof over their head and not having to work 3 fulltime jobs just to have one. We would like a nights rest too if that is at all possible and maybe some extra's like some groceries after paying the rent. The rags I wear, a doctor, transportation, that all comes last in priority with the bidenomics economy that was going to continue and get even worse for struggling Americans. What makes anyone think that will change with Harris in charge, she's already in charge and the country is a mess.
A lot of libertarians who voted for Jo Jorgensen and Spike cohen (a woman and a Jew) myself included voted for trump because were sick of this shit.
The main issue he lives in a rich white neighbourhood, while everyone else has to suffer the consequences of the retttttarded leftist ideology in the real world. Obviously he'll act like a delusional boomer about it
@@jodee4684 Your main concern was the economy and so you voted for tariffs? 🤭
You don’t need 13 keys. You need only the border and the economy
The economy is factored in twice into the keys, and exit polls showed it was mostly Republicans who were going to vote for Trump anyway that cared about the border as their #1 issue.
Key 1 is the border safe?
Key 2 is the economy prosperous and people pay reasonable amounts of money for food and gas
I was confident that Trump was going to win and I don't even live in the USA.
@@StimParavane everyone knew he was gonna win, except for this schmuck
@@Master-Blaster-4x4 Not at all. Clearly the people who consumed the corporate liberal media believed Kamala was going to win.
Bro woke up on nov. 6th and his career was GONE 🤣
LOL
I'm sure his career's just fine, it's his rep that's screwed
It should have been gone when he predicted Gore would beat Bush. 80% accuracy isn't newsworthy.
@@deckofcards87when your entire career is based on making predictions on elections I’m certain that getting it wrong will also mean losing your job too since no one is going to rely on you. Just saying
Clinton election and re-election, Bush re-election, Obama re-election were so obviously going to happen I dont think you'd need "keys" to predict them.
I used the Keys and I had Trump winning 😂
Witnessing the death of a career.....
Hopefully, lol. What a smug idiot. Trump Derangement Syndrome will turn anyone who has it into an idiot.
Nah, like the other so-called experts on cable news, he'll continue to spew his biased diatribes.
@@wildie__3956 ...NBC is spinning off MSNBC and others. This election will signal the extinction of leftist cable news networks, as they've been exposed for massive, wholesale lies. Only Fox News and Fox Business will survive. Your prediction will suffer like Lichtman's.
One mistake in 40 yrs,u never made a mistake 😂😂😂
One mistake out of 40 yrs,like u never made a mistake 😂😂😂
Did he just blame eveyone else other than himself?????🤣🤣
Welcome to the world of democrats
Yes
Yes, his prediction was not wrong, but the voters who tampered with his prediction were wrong. 😂
The woke way
@@AspiePilo82LOL 😂
Looks like he lost his keys. This man isnt worth listening to at all.
@@AlexFromnic but you did anyway.
Seriously? Yeah, he’s arrogant but, does anyone bat 100%?
@@projectkj7643if he wasnt so certain about his prediction, people wouldve given him a pass.
@@projectkj7643you mean 1,000.
@@philipm5043It also doesn't help that he flops back and forth on whether his keys predict a popular vote, electoral college, or combined victory to make his record look better. His keys are way too subjective, and his methods are as unscientific as the polls. There is a control for bias, and it bit him in the ass when his own biases became unreasonable.
First time I heard this guy speak and I hate him already. His arrogance is just off the charts. Won’t even try to say even for a little bit that he was wrong. Not a real man.
Watch till the end.
@@parhhesiaYou can say it verbally in 10 seconds but in 6:00 he goes on a temper tantrum about everyone else around him his wrong. Actions speak louder than words.
You called it wrong cause you chose to ignore what the last 4 years have given us. Put your ego in your pocket.
Get out of your bubble, everyone told him he was wrong. He wasnt objectivly looking at his keys
You mean the 14th key: fascism.
@@ImListeningToReason or maybe it has something to do with Trump and Mike Johnson’s election “SECRET”
You mean his keys are utter bullshit pseudo science right 👍
Yes his TDS or maybe too much hair dye affected his judgement! Perhaps too much glue if it's a toupee?
@@mr.meeseeks6307 His TDS got the better of him this time…
My man stayed up 3 full nights to deliver this response
Stayed up for 3 days? Dude looks half dead. 😂
Don’t you dare “blaspheme” Allan Lichtman. 😂
Rumor has it Alan is still locked out of his house after forgetting how to turn his keys.
Rumor has it that the election wasn't fair. When you have a walking bank ( Elon Musk) buying votes for Trump, impossible for any key to work
lol HAHAHA
Lol
Hahahahahhahaha
😂😂😂😂
The Prof doesnt wanna admit that his interpretation was wrong. Other comentators used his keys and interpretation and declared a Trump victory.
Oh bull$hit. PROVIDE EVIDENCE otherwise shut up
What commentator?
@@RH-kd3gcNate Silver
@@RH-kd3gc @stateofdaniel
@@RH-kd3gc Several. PBD, Timcast, Mehan kelly... etc.
He didn't answer his own keys objectively. He relied on propaganda to answer his keys.
trump voters are the propagandized
@geewhizinfo yes. Yet blames disinformation on the other side. Guy needs to go away.
@@geewhizinfo 😂😂😂😂😂
Padlock changed 😅
If he wants it to be scientific, he needs to not have bias. He should not care who gets elected.
He knows zero about the community and the American people..
He's not doing anymore interviews, but then he quickly did an interview. 😂
Lol
It was a lecture
Humility and ownership would go a long way Alan, rather than disrespecting the American people.
@@megag52 very well said
I am not defending Alan, but he has every right to disrespect the American people. They just voted in a rapist, pathological liar, misogynist, racist, adulterer, and supreme con-artist. So, yeah, the American people fully merit being disrespected. Of course, I don't mean the ones who didn't vote for the criminal. For those, I feel very sorry for them to have co-exist with imbeciles, and have to suffer crooks being in charge of their country.
Then perhaps we should say that an uninformed electorate is the greatest threat to democracy. Anyone that intentionally or unintentionally votes against their own best interest really deserves no respect because society as a whole suffers the consequences.
@@yohan2437 You don't get to decide what other peoples' interests are, dimwit. Learn some humility, idiotic comments like that are why you drive people away.
@@decimustv4257You must take issue with almost all Americans, considering Clinton and Biden also fit your description of Trump.
The key system is actually a useful system, but it wasn’t applied correctly. He’s right that elections are a referendum on incumbents, not campaigns. If people have less money in their pocket, they’ll usually vote for the party not in charge, regardless of candidates. If the Republican Party fails to improve people’s lives over the next 4 years, they will suffer the same fate.
Guy is a liberal fan boy. Election was a blowout proving his system is worthless.
This time around there were many of his so-called "keys" that actually were almost of no importance or relevance and seemed to not take into account one or more intangibles that shouldn't be dismissed, like the last pre-election jobs report that only added 12,000 jobs instead of a hoped for 100 thousand jobs???
But that means that using recessions as a metric for the short- and long-term economic keys is wrong. The system is thus flawed, and it should be as humans are emotional beings. Rational homo-economicus does not exist. Of course, all this plays into the idea of factoring misinformation, which makes perfect sense in a digital age.
@@HarvesterYT You're assuming there will be an election in 2028. I'd suggest you don't count on it.
Open border is another significant factor played here . Litchmen ignored fundamental issues and used misinformation to make judgement. Americans actually realized who is real dictator in the country .
If Lichtman just followed his own keys, he would’ve been right….
He is wrong because he is biased.
I'm beginning to think he's a psyOp merchant.
No he is not, you are mad and WRONG. Allan was right for 40 elections in a row. He has the RIGHT to be smug and you have the right to stop crying.
Yes, I went through the keys and it was very different from what he was saying. He wanted things to shake out a certain way and he couldn't overcome his own bias.
he only judges the sitting party not the opposition, its what they've done over the 4 years he basis the keys on. nothing to do with which party he supports as he has said forever, hes not biased he just got this wrong due to the changes the dems did with the leader, ive always found him fair and honest, maybe you just havent seen enough of him to judge fairly.
You know he’s a Republican right
Such a clown. He was wrong because of "racism, misogyny..blah blah blah"
Yeah... I don't think "racism" had too much to do with it... However, "misogyny"... Pretty hard to miss it, really.
@@billymanilli There were likely just as many or more voters who voted for Kamala simply because she was a woman as those who voted for Trump simply because he wasn't.
Trump billionaire thats what ppl dont understand.. the isms work on regular ppl
@@billymanillimisogyny had nothing to do with it either. People will vote for a woman if she has good policies. Kamala basically said she would change nothing during bidens term, which means she'll repeat the same policies. Nobody wants more of the same.
Literally. Like what the hell was he yapping about?
An arrogant, out of touch academic. They live in an insulated bubble.
Lichtman, YOU'RE FIRED!
Guy is a bloody clown. He had only one key- his ego and emotions
Wasn't his name, "Allan"? Are not "ego" and "emotions" two, rather than one, keys?
I'm in tune to that discord...
Such a melody is in leiu of fun, no mistake about it...
🤓🎹🎼🤡📃🔍
he's a small hat clown
lol😂
😅😂😂😅
Classic shoot the messenger. His track record and the fact that NOBODY saw such a decisive tRump victory doesn’t make him a clown. I sense extreme disappointment… if so, join the (huge) club.
"I don't know shit about shit" - Lichtman
non political, straight forward, this is the comment that matters.
I wanna like your comment, but you have 69 likes! I won't be the person who changes that! 😂
Wiser words have rarely been said
Shichtman
Not true! He knows where to buy the best toupees!
The best part is his formula was correct but he wanted to see only what he wanted to see and did not pay attention to his own formula!!
Exactly! He underestimated.
You are right. And that make him a liar, like the main stream media (which now is the last stream media, very soon to disappear).
Is predicting 8/10 elections even that impressive? Some of them are just obvious.
I think I predicated 5/6.
2024 felt like Trump would win, clear message again, economics and immigration on his side, Democrats fumbled it on picking the right candidate, had a weak message and took some damage over all the woke stuff.
2020 felt like it would go to Biden, largely due to the pandemic and Trump didn't debate well either.
2016 felt like Trump, a maverick candidate and outsider with a clear message promising to fight for Americans, v Clinton a Washington careerist, struggling with the FBI email issue hanging over her.
2008 and 2012 Obama was clear favourite, great candidate, clear message of hope and change, after the Iraq fiasco and credit crunch.
2004 I really thought Kerry would win, but got that completely wrong.
You lied to the Democrats and your keys were completely useless because you interpreted the keys according to what you wanted and not based on the realities on the ground. Who cares about a malfunctioning key?
He didn't lie, he presented his model
People need to understand what Lying actually is. A lie is when you know something is incorrect and you say it anyway. It is impossible to lie about who will win an Election, because there is no way to actually know who will win. He thought she would win, he was simply Wrong but it's not a Lie
"Lied"??? He expressed his opinion based on a system he's worked with for decades. Believe it or not, opinions are neither truthful nor false, they are simply opinions. This time his system failed him. That's not a lie, it's an error.
@57Strudel , I listened to him several times discussing his keys and it was easy to tell that his analysis was far removed from objectivity based on his famous keys. He was literally predicting the outcome he wanted. The last interview I heard from him was telling in that he only questioned polls results that favored Trump, and kept saying the pools' results were understating the Democrats voters. I started questioning his magic keys even more from that moment. Finally, to err is human, but he needs to admit that he was wrong and stop blaming people like Elon Musk for the failure of his keys.
@@57Strudelwe dont wanna hear his lousy opinion😂
Arrogant, biased, and smug. Blames voters instead of the democrats.
Democrats are also voters.
Maybe he needs another key to explain why Harris got 12 million less votes than Biden, while Trump essentially got the same number of votes that he had in 2020.
The party.....@@peterangoli7449
He did blame democrats for turning against their own candidate.
@@sirtom14 What utter rubbish. Trump was 2,000,000 votes down, lol.
Trumps votes were also 8,630,271 LESS than Bidens.
Trump can only beat women . Can't beat a man.
He doesn’t like being wrong,does he 😂.
Denial is the first stage.
😂😂😂
He lives in Washington DC, so it's no suprise he is biased.
He predicted trumps win in 2016
Except he's predicted wins for Reagan, Bush, and Trump. He's mentioned many times that when he predicted Trump back in 2016, it made him very unpopular in DC.
@@Newbie_John Don't explain things to people who love Trump. They don't see things for what they are at all. Problem is, democrats are just as clueless.
The keys said Trump would win
My $2,000 also said trump would win and now that $2,000 is $3800
My 401K said "thank you" to the Trump win!
Yeah, he switched some of them and implied Trump was the incumbent when he ran the model. I saw what he put in lmao
Lots cheating going on needs to be investigated so it can be fair election!!!!
Oh, they did, did they? HOW IS THAT?
Too funny! CNN and Allan Lichtman going down the tubes in the same night
I can’t get over this guys arrogance. It’s easier to pick a presidential election then it is to pick a Super Bowl winner
boo
cry
Then why did literally everyone else get 2016 wrong?
@ read my post after this one. I admit 1992 2016 were tough to pick. 1992 had Perot as a third party to make it tricky and 2016 was tough because Trump was inexperienced. However i felt the energy leaning Trump in 2016. If you look at both of those elections, Trump won by a total of 70,000 votes and three swing states and Bill Clinton one with a minority of the vote. Those two were hard to call. But every other election since 1980 were obvious. 2000 was harder but Gore was a horrible candidate. 1972 was easy has hell while 1976 was tough but I’d have picked Carter. Cmon, if you’re a political junkie 90% of President elections are easy. This professor is a pinhead.
@@Frankaziza1 Keep in mind that in 1982, Reagan's popularity was low and a lot of people thought he would not win re-election, but the keys said otherwise. Obviously the former changed, but even the "easy" elections sometimes weren't easy when he made the prediction. Romney was the favorite until very late in the campaign, even 2004 was far from a guarantee.
Let’s see u pick the winner for 40 yrs! Jealousy is a medical issue 😂😂😂
The guy's a joke! He allowed his bias to influence his interpretation of the keys. He's just totally discredited himself and nobody should ever put a mic in front of him again.
This guy is part of the problem.
He's just a Democrat Bot!
@@EdBenjiHe said Trump would win in 2016.
So how is he a bot?
And cnn
The whole country is part of the problem, including this guy. Democrats and republicans are both equally responsible for the problem. Both sides are not based in reality anymore, just completely clueless as a whole.
He still doesn't get it!
13 keys to unemployment 🤣
I HOPE ALLAN GOES TO HELL, FOR GIVING MILLIONS FALSE HOPE AND SECURITY
😂😂😂😂😂this guy is useless 13 useless keys
He's an excellent history professor, doubt he's going to have trouble with employment anytime soon. He's not making any excuses for his error, he's had a good track record regardless.
Lol, with a 9 out of 11 success rate? Fat chance. You'll see him again in 4 years
@Deathkill06 lol it sounded to me like he is. Bro got waited till the whole map turn red then blamed elon musk and all other factors. The whole world can see what was going to happen months away except for him and while he's high in his imaginary keys.
dude let his bias in
Why not go an pay someone to TEACH YOU how to pay attention? You nit wits come on here posting foolishness and donl't know a damn thing. The man ALSO predicted Trump winning in 2016 and his loss in 2020. get over your brainless worship of Trump for a minute...THINK!!!! Or just pay attention,.
Yes, if you look at the keys they point to a Trump win
He did
💯
Predicted Trump in 2016
Racism, sexism. Give it a break.
He's right. Racism and sexism DEFINITELY played a part. If you think otherwise then you are a fool, which is what I think you are for making that comment.
5:10 she says maybe a 14th key to fix your prediction. As she finishes her question the time is 5:14. Trump is being removed per 14th amendment on Jan 6th.
Trump was born on the 14th
@decimustv4257 yeah sure could not possibly have been the economy, inflation, border, crime, woke ridiculousness, free speech, etc etc
@@georgemorgan6119 Trump didnt build wall or have mexico pay for it. Why should we trust him on any of that? He didn't do anything about woke in 2016. Damn maga cant think.
@@georgemorgan6119 Its all that and some sexism. Come now. We know women are the first to hate on another one. plenty of men see having a woman leader as emasculating or that they would be too weak to stand up to other leaders. Worlds filled with that.
Trump ended Lichtman's prediction career. It is beautiful.
The guy is still shell shocked. He needs tot see a few weeks off to reflect on his bias.
He lost credibility over this prediction failure.
Allan was also wrong about 2000 but he still whines that it was stolen from Gore.
Twice😂
❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
She is containing her laughter at his nonsense lol
I thought the identical thing!!
Hearing CNN tell people that Elon Musk is the king of Disinformation LOL
Yes, we already know that facts are irrelevant to phony patriot MAGA cultists. This election proved it again.
So true. I don't know how they could say that with a straight face.
The truth matters unless your maga
Because they think their viewers are dumb
@@RakeshKumar_07 CNN's viewers ARE dumb
Your KEYS have a VIAS component….YOU! PLEASE, PLEASE stop embarrassing yourself. ❤️🇺🇸TRUMP🇺🇸❤️
Him and his keys.
😂😂😂😂😂
"Muh keys were right, but misogyny and racism!" 😂😂😂
SMH
musk and rogan robbed average joe
Technically the system he made would have been right had he properly assigned those "keys". "Charisma" is not a Kamala trait by any stretch of the imagination. 😂
@@MartinLV.Sit down fascist.
Maybe his keys were right. Maybe we have a stolen election? Would that surprise you?
The economy is where he went wrong. They (mainstream media, economists, government officials) keep saying the economy is great, wonderful, never better! However, everyday Americans are struggling. You can say it is amazing until the end of time, but if it doesn't translate into daily living, you will lose that argument.
He sounds very bitter.
Cause he’s out of a JOB! Alan LICHTMAN: YOU’RE FIRED!!! Bwahahahahahahaaa 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@sec9788It is true that the economy was great. It was great for them (the rich and politicians), but not for the average person. Therefore, they were correct. When they spoke, just change the perspective, and you will see what they are truly saying. Liars.
Everyday Americans parents smart enough to understand inflation and supply and demand. We have a horrible education system and most Americans are not that intelligent. Fact.
Yeah I wanted Harris to win and wanted to go off what he was saying but I was always confused running his keys myself said Trump would win because of the economy he still has a good system he was just biased in this election and al gore was debatable a lot said gore won with independent recounts in Florida The keys itself being right has a nearly perfect track record still him himself got his own keys wrong. But I can respect giving a bold prediction people like Nate silver are cheap saying it’s 50/50 or 60/40 because you’ll never be wrong saying either side could win
That's because most people are completely economically illiterate, they don't seem to grasp that we live in a free market and the President doesn't control the price of goods. Prices are high because people are buying the goods, there is no incentive for corporations (whose primary objective is to make money) to lower prices. Basic supply and demand. The only recourse is to increase wages, and if people think that is going to be Trump and the Republican's objective, the American people are greatly mistaken. Trump and Republican's have and always will be on the side of corporations, not working people. Ignorance has won yet again. When will people wake up, Trump is not coming to save them, just another one of his grifts
I loved it when Piers Morgan allowed the Young Turk & our professor here 2 get into it! Was great TV
CNN has been my favorite channel for 3 days straight
3 day s! So you don't have a job to go like,us????😅
Not all people work all day like you@@cynthiag6243
CNN is becoming more of a comedy show than a news channel. People don’t come here to see the news anymore…they come for the meltdowns, false propaganda, and a laugh. 😅
🤣🤣🤣
😂😂
The toupee glue is eating away his brain
Lol....nice
😂 He should get a gray hairpiece, it would look more natural for someone who's pushing 80. And maybe push that hairline back to a realistic spot.
You are too funny🤣😂👍
😂😂😂
but it is a good toupee , at first believable
What he really told us was who he wanted to win.
Provide EVIDENCE, otherwise, SHUT UP
BINGO!
@@lunaticfringe896How about a timeout for you? 🤣🤣🤣
yes exactly
Exactly. He admitted this in countless interviews he wanted Harris to win. That's when I knew his prediction was bullsh**. In his 13 key model he checked off, "Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero." He gave the Biden/Harris team that and I'm like WHAT!!! Harris neither Biden are charismatic.
He also checked off for them, "Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term." which is a lie because The Israel/Palestine conflict was a huge form of social unrest in America and around the world in general. I believe this is specifically why Harris narrowly lost Michigan, one of the most heavily populated Arab American states.
He checked off for them "Long-Term and Short-Term economy" and he cities a bunch of magazines and articles explaining why inflation is down. But what he didn't realize is perception is everything. Yes inflation maybe down but the average person pockets is still hurting. Purchasing power is down, but he wouldn't understand that because he is rich.
So, it was no surprise to me his prediction was totally off. And he's openly called Trump in interview after interview, "A danger to democracy" which tells you he was rooting for the Democrats.
When in doubt………blame everyone, but yourself.
These people live in a parallel reality, total mediocrity.
I didn't need to watch the video to know he was going to blame Elon Musk😂😂
No shit 😂😂
No kidding. This Lichtman is a hack with an massive ego. I am so tired of Elon Musk, the Renaissance man of the 21st century, who has done more for humanity than anyone else being disrespected. Don't bet against Elon. You will lose EVERY time. Yeah, I love the guy!
Gotta love it when Musk is defended
@@Boris80b by doing nothing, just speaking his mind, like the democrats. If youre poor, just be poor. No need to have hissy fits over someone with money simply because you're sitting in a hole still.
Keep trying to cope, Boris. LOL.
@@Boris80b yeah once we reck this world where else would we go? at least musk got a plan b
That guy sells snake oil on the side if you wanna buy some
The “not-winners” are turning on and eating each other.
What did ya expect from a small hat?
He shall be known as „Allan Lichtman Balls“ from now on
Alan literally thought the economy was good when that was Americans #1 problem….🙄
The economy is objectively good in every way. Inflation is right at the ideal point of 2%, the stock market is booming (don't tell me the stock market doesn't matter, you'd be bragging about it if it were under Trump and it matters for people's 401K), unemployment is at record lows, real wages are rising, US manufacturing is booming, etc.
@@Owen_loves_Butters Lol we have a 9.3% credit card delinquency rate (worst since Q1 2012) inflation over 4 years is 20%, and real wage growth since biden got in is 1%. At surface, jobs look good but full time jobs have dropped YoY and a huge reason employment, (a trailing variable) is high is that more americans then ever have a second or third job. Lastly CPI which has gone down is not close to the full picture as deficit spending does not translate into CPI (although it provides QE even if rates are high) and Real estate is not weighed in the CPI index which would show the worst housing market since 2008… Back to school skippy!
@Owen_loves_Butters None of those metrics matter for the average person. Most of the flipped voters don't have anything invested in the stock market or even in housing. Inflation may be down but the ratio between prices of goods and median income is drastically higher than it has historically been. Reigning inflation back to normal doesn't change this ratio, and it's what we feel the most. Unemployment is actually rising, and the jobs that are being made are lower paying government jobs rather than those in the private sector, and underemployment (people who are over qualified for the positions they are in) continues to spike. You can say Republicans are lying about the economy to people but the truth is that people vote because their quality of life is either better or worse than it has been, and clearly voting Trump indicates we are unhappy with the state of the US and want change.
Also manufacturing has dipped YoY by 250K jobs… And the stock market is a terrible way to judge the economy as in the fall of 2007 the stock market hit record highs one year later Lehman brothers failed… A few NPR statistics later some people believe they are ready to be the next Alan Greenspan, truly stunning.
@@Owen_loves_ButtersShut up, the economy stinks! 😂😂😂
It’s amazing to me how hard people work at coming up with reasons other than the obvious. The American people want Trump.
Or maybe its because a huge percentage of the left are Pro-Palestine?🤔😔
This is what happens when you only watch corporate media!
Funny coming from a Ben Shapiro w@nker on traitortrump food stamps!
Yes
Why are you here?
Corrupt dems. Educated ?. U lied and u lost. Facebook did that too. Dummy . Go back to school.
@@sleepyandhollow. Because we watch all media for a balanced view of the world, not a far left bubble.
He's trying to squirm out of it! Is it always racism, sexism and some phobia when you lose?
At least he came out to interview in just one day
Publicity hounds like him usually do.
😂how on earth is he a publicity hound ?? It's election time. He predicted the election. Easy
He's got a book To sell I'm sure there will be a lot of recalls now
You sound like one of those people that probably believed him and are still in shock that Trump has taken everything including from popular vote from the Latinos and blacks, Alan's agent made sure CNN went softball on him
But he still tried to blame his total failure on others.
Hell he showed his face faster than full-diaper Biden and his Kameltoe.
Lichtman, you're fired!
MISOGINY????? Get the hell out. You’re done.
Yes, misoginy also. Sit down.
Besides the fact that he attacked her intelligence, alluded to her sex life in a lewd manner, effectively used the b word, and generally has a track record for misogynistic statements, he is also totally unfit for the job moreso than any potus in US history. No other Presidents had top generals and their own former cabinet numbers calling them a threat to our way of life. Kamala should have won on the sole basis that she can at least show up to an interview and speak coherently about her resume. The only reasonable explanation is that people were voting for what his identity represents to them compared to hers. Even if it was for the cost of living factor, it's because they instinctively perceive him as the strong male capable of solving problems where in their opinion a woman cannot. There was an overwhelming consensus from economists that Kamala's plan was better at tackling inflation and growing the economy. She just didn't have the gender factor on her side since Trump has no factor on his side beyond that, and yet still managed to win.
@@woah455 Sure, blame misogyny and not the fact Kamala was shoehorned in and ran a sh*t campaign 😂
@@woah455The average Trump voter didn’t vote for her not because she was a woman, but because she lied, she flip flopped, she dodged questions, she would word salad, she didn’t show herself, she would endlessly blame Trump instead of supporting herself, she shamed black people and women for not voting for her, she put on a facade depending on what audience she was talking to, she prided herself on being a middle class kid which is in speculation, she cared more about people outside the country than inside (supporting Israel but barely helping the people of the hurricane), she has openly called the 18-24 demographic “stupid”, she uses tax dollars for surgeries on illegal inmates, she sugarcoated Biden’s cognitive state, and the list may go on
Anyone who wouldn't vote for Kamala because she was a woman would never vote for a democrat anyway. This election was not lost because of misogyny.
The guy just completely exposed himself with this interview. Career over
Other than indoctrinating 19-year-olds in class…….🫤
The only way for Lichtman's system to approach being scientific is for each of its subjective keys to be decided by polls, which would be laughably ironic.
He is treated like a genius for predicting who gets elected while most of the time, the average person can tell you who is going to win. Knowing absolutely nothing still gives you a 50% chance of getting it right.
Exactly right. If you look at the ones he's correctly predicted, only a couple were surprising. 2024 was only surprising to the folks who watch mainstream media and/or live in a bubble. The fact that he didn't see a tsunami outweighs the fact that he didn't see a wave.
exactly. survivorship bias. Take 1000 'experts' to predict the last 10 elections. One of them... 1 in 2 to the 10th power...(1024) will get it right out of sheer chance. This dude very well may have 'survived' to this point out of sheer chance. Best not to listen to any of these types for future things etc etc.
I predicted Trump and am down here in uganda east africa! 🇺🇬 you only need to know politics to know this. Coming from a highly politicized country with a five tier political decentralized system, i predicted trump and got it right both times. And am no genius!
Exactly. But I mean his methodology is quite structured and smart for anyone to use. Just shame he let his bias get in the way.
@@boulevard14 Agreed
He is a jerk. Can’t admit mistake and instead looking for excuses
No he is not, you are mad and WRONG. Allan was right for 40 elections in a row. He has the RIGHT to be smug and you have the right to stop crying.
Trump?
Cry harder. Get ready to cry more once that recession hits.
40 elections? that would make him over 200 years old@@d4mterro320
Remember he did pick Trump in 2016, so it's not like he didn't go against the grain of popular opinion, but his 13 Keys never accounted for a Presidential Canidate that was installed, not elected, that is a major reason Kamala Harris was universally panned from this election because she did not earn the right to eve be running for President, and the Democrats think the American people are stupid not to notice this as a major flaw in the canidate. His 13 Keys should of recognized the same, apparently he picked Trump again while he was going against Biden, but the moment they switch him out, he switched his pick and his 13 Keys system fell apart.
He didn't account for people praying.
Hallelujah thank you jesus
A-men!
Yes the power of God is the best to pick the God fearing ppl
Need more keys to prevent error, like the key of common sense. And don't let personal views get in your way of best judgement.
I told you Mr. Litchman , remember sometimes you can lost your keys and be stranded in front of the door 😂😂😂
Perhaps common sense should be added to his key chain!
There’s no excuse for this one either. She got destroyed.
The Keys weren't wrong. He let his bias get in the way of a true prediction. Especially the charisma (fight me all you want trump appeals to alot of peoples grievances) ,and the economy and primary keys. Apply them objectively and a trump win would've been predicted.
I was just reading his keys they prove Trump would win if all were answered correctly. You are right….his bias got in the way.
His keys were right. Trump ran a resist campaign.
Nope.....the Keys simply didn't account for modern era forces such as widespread disinformation, which DJT and team used extensively to convince millions they were disadvantaged victims of "the Establishment" when, in fact, these people have a life their grandparents couldn't dream of. People with that delusion will act irrationally and even vote for a convicted felon. This was Trump's greatest victory, and America's greatest political disaster.
I completely agree.
🎯
Don't ever believe this idiot. Your fired.
They were your predictions too, CNN.
My condolences. 💐
😂😂
Central PA Harris voter here. My neighbors (who I’m friendly with) all voted for Trump. Main concerns: identity politics (trans athletes competing in women’s sports, pronoun talk, etc), immigration, spending money on wars like Ukraine when Americans are hurting, and inflation. That’s it. That’s why we lost.
We try to cater to every single group. Respect everybody……but you don’t have to get approval from every single group and their issue. Start giving people in the middle (slightly left….slightly right) what they need and want. Otherwise, you lose. It’s not about key theory from 30 years ago. I’m dumb and can see it. Why can’t you?
Categorizing, at its essence, is division.
Your neighbors are Putinists.
Do you go to the Central Hotel (Bar, Restaurant ) at all. I live 2 houses down.
You know you went in that booth and voted from Trump. Don't be ashamed. Kamala just didn't cut it.
OR lets TRUE democracy prevail and let there be multiparty system and let each party cater to a group that they can then represent in the government and have policies which are sort of on ALL sides. As of today policies are mostly on side of lobbies and financiers rather than people since two party system has been compromised and people feel disenfranchised. Result is apparent with 13 million FEWER people voting THIS critical election. Worth another experiment
And he was wrong
Nostradamus was also a fake
the keys werent wrong, he was just biased
@@WilliamLi-nd4lzexactly. He was way too biased and used his keys to push his agenda. Had he objectively applied the keys he would've called Trump
Nostradamus correctly predicted that Turmp would be Hilter and that Joy Behar would be Miss USA
He tried to use his “keys” as a cudgel to hammer a square peg into a round hole. Even a 3 year old knows that doesn’t work.
So what will you say about him getting every single election from 1984 to 2020 right. He is human. He is allowed to make a mistake.
Absolutely correct. No Democrat ever looks to the true outcome to evaluate their dipsh’t predictions. Why would you want to do that. You stick to your guns bud. Just don’t expect a call from me for your 🤔.. Ummmm, services.
Just like no one cares about Movie critics, no one cares about political analyst's opinions.
Polls and experts are and have been useless since 2016 the political landscape has undergone a fundamental change time to rethink everything.
Hw predicted Trump in 2016..despite lots of people saying no way
The reason polls are so wrong now is online media. And such things.