Yeah. It's unlikely, but just remember: it keeps getting more and more likely after each attack. The odds of missing two attacks in a row at 50% chance is 25%, but after missing the first, the odds of missing both jump to that 50%.
@@Fryes_Husband yeah I realized a bit too late, maybe she just got distracted when she saw a water skeeter under her feet, if your played Awakening, her C support with her sibling shows that she freaks out over a bug
odds of diamant missing six 51% chances in a row = (49%)⁶ ≈ 1.38% lucina hitting two 3% crits = (3%)² = 0.09% multiplying both numbers to get the odds of both events happening in the same combat gives about 0.00125% trust no one, not even the combat forecast
@@daalexteam Not quite. The probability of Diamant getting a 2nd successful hit against Lucina on his 8th strike (negative binomial) is 0.0252. Over that time, Lucina crits Diamant twice over 14 strikes (binomial), with a probability of 0.05683. Multiplied together you get ~0.1435% for an arena like this to happen which is still pretty epic
technically the 51% hits for Diamant are slightly more due to how Engage calculates hit rates over 50% slightly differently, in the same way Fates and Echoes do
Probability goes out the window when it comes to a coin toss, which is exactly what 51% is. It's either gonna hit or it won't and since every attack is a separate coin toss the results will always be truly random and streaks of misses are just as likely as hitting even once.
Arenas in previous Fire Emblem games were pretty wild too, tbh. In FE6 and 7, on Hard Mode, if you went in with certain promoted classes like Generals or Valkyries, physical units vs Generals would break STR caps and, according to my math, would sometimes wind up pitting your unit vs Silver weapon wielding enemies with 40+ STR, when all stats except HP capped at 30, unless you used a legendary weapon and it's +5 boost pushed you over. For Valks, same just with Fimbulvitrs, Fenrir or Divine using magic units with 35+ MAG, when the highest MAG cap belonged to female Sages with 30, with Druids right behind them at 28 or 29, idr exactly. In FE7, I had Hector go in to the arena prior to the final showdown and he fought two Warriors with ?? Health, back when regular units health capped at 60. The only units to break the health limit were a few Morphs made from the souls of the Black Fang such as Brendan, Nergal and the Fire Dragon as the final boss. FE Fates arenas could be quite insane too, I had a Master Ninja Kana with capped SPD of about 49? Idr exactly how high it was, but she wound up getting doubled by a Swordmaster. Which means he had at least +4 SPD on her, so assuming I'm right and Kana had 49, the Swordmaster had minimum of 53 SPD, which to my knowledge is impossible without tonics or rallies. Granted she won that fight since she crit Lethality proc'd, but still.
In this case though it's just using the true odds of a 50% hit, aka a literal coin toss. The laws of probability go out the window with a coin toss. It's truly random and doesn't matter how many times you flip that coin, the results will never form a trend or pattern that can be used to predict the outcome.
Guys, that is totally normal, Lucina comes from Awakening, 3% crit rate is enough
If it’s not 100%, it’s 50%
Well... he got there eventually and that's what's important.
Diamant is also not weilding a sword during this match. I wonder if that has a lot to do with it since axes are weak against sword units.
Let's be honest, he was just taking it easy on her so it would actually be a close fight.
"I lost...?"
Yeah that about sums it up doesn't it!
The weirdness of RNG, you start winning by a large margin, then you just lose.
Math is fun
She hit 3 percent crits twice over you missing 50% on hit rate until the very end. *_Huh?_*
RNG giveth, RNG taketh away.
It's FE bro
Yeah. It's unlikely, but just remember: it keeps getting more and more likely after each attack. The odds of missing two attacks in a row at 50% chance is 25%, but after missing the first, the odds of missing both jump to that 50%.
Lucina just lost her footing at the end when she slipped on an icy chunk at the water floor which cost her match against Diamant
She's floating though
@@Fryes_Husband yeah I realized a bit too late, maybe she just got distracted when she saw a water skeeter under her feet, if your played Awakening, her C support with her sibling shows that she freaks out over a bug
Diamant’s axe proceeded to break her mask
Calling all statisticians: what the hell were the odds of this?
odds of diamant missing six 51% chances in a row = (49%)⁶ ≈ 1.38%
lucina hitting two 3% crits = (3%)² = 0.09%
multiplying both numbers to get the odds of both events happening in the same combat gives about 0.00125%
trust no one, not even the combat forecast
@@daalexteam Not quite. The probability of Diamant getting a 2nd successful hit against Lucina on his 8th strike (negative binomial) is 0.0252. Over that time, Lucina crits Diamant twice over 14 strikes (binomial), with a probability of 0.05683. Multiplied together you get ~0.1435% for an arena like this to happen which is still pretty epic
technically the 51% hits for Diamant are slightly more due to how Engage calculates hit rates over 50% slightly differently, in the same way Fates and Echoes do
how is this statistically improbable? You're all forgetting that dodge/crit stats can be raised significantly to the point of proc'ing 99% of the time
Alright, i have a question. Is it even a Maddening difficulty? Let's start with it first.
“I only need to hit you once dex nerd”
I don't remember Lucina moving at the speed... of Lyn in her base game. I guess she got stronger.
Nah, thats just Emblem Shenanigans.
Remember Heroic spirits in Fate Series?
Guess smash got her swole
That's just the emblem/engage form crit animation with a sword. Emblem Eirika uses it too.
I mean she could always learn astra so...
As always as long as the percentage is not 0, the situation is probable
fancy footwork vs brute force in a nutshell
This is just the "I only need to hit you once, DEX nerd" thing.
Diamant missed a total of 6 50/50s🫥
This video made Diamante look like a common Bandit.
Average Gacha gamer
That was some seriously bad luck on Diamant's part until the very end lol 51% should hit closer to every other time 😂
Probability goes out the window when it comes to a coin toss, which is exactly what 51% is. It's either gonna hit or it won't and since every attack is a separate coin toss the results will always be truly random and streaks of misses are just as likely as hitting even once.
Honestly those crit combos should have just gave astra damage instead.
Arenas in previous Fire Emblem games were pretty wild too, tbh. In FE6 and 7, on Hard Mode, if you went in with certain promoted classes like Generals or Valkyries, physical units vs Generals would break STR caps and, according to my math, would sometimes wind up pitting your unit vs Silver weapon wielding enemies with 40+ STR, when all stats except HP capped at 30, unless you used a legendary weapon and it's +5 boost pushed you over. For Valks, same just with Fimbulvitrs, Fenrir or Divine using magic units with 35+ MAG, when the highest MAG cap belonged to female Sages with 30, with Druids right behind them at 28 or 29, idr exactly. In FE7, I had Hector go in to the arena prior to the final showdown and he fought two Warriors with ?? Health, back when regular units health capped at 60. The only units to break the health limit were a few Morphs made from the souls of the Black Fang such as Brendan, Nergal and the Fire Dragon as the final boss.
FE Fates arenas could be quite insane too, I had a Master Ninja Kana with capped SPD of about 49? Idr exactly how high it was, but she wound up getting doubled by a Swordmaster. Which means he had at least +4 SPD on her, so assuming I'm right and Kana had 49, the Swordmaster had minimum of 53 SPD, which to my knowledge is impossible without tonics or rallies. Granted she won that fight since she crit Lethality proc'd, but still.
That was a close one
Engage arena is my favorite fighting game
Yes!! Don't get me wrong, I love the Worriors spin-offs, but can we PLEASE get Arc Systems or Capcom to take a crack at it!?
Oh, when I have less than a 100% hit rate, even by 90%, I miss
But when the enemies have like 10% , they’re able to hit me
It's FE bro
Lucina really did just try to paper cut Diamant to death
This fucking game shares rng gods with XCOM, I swear
And one of those gods is named Murphy
In this case though it's just using the true odds of a 50% hit, aka a literal coin toss. The laws of probability go out the window with a coin toss. It's truly random and doesn't matter how many times you flip that coin, the results will never form a trend or pattern that can be used to predict the outcome.
He had to hit her twice eventually with the amount of crits Lucina is getting
I guess Alear gave Yunaka Lucina's ring at the same time Diamant went to spar with her 🤣
0:25 Emblem Lucina: Missed.
oo round axe design look nice
Hey he won. That's all that matters. Go frickin Diamant!
Sounds about right
Wait, did Laura Bailey return to voice Lucina or that Alexis Tipton and I got so used to her voice that I defualt her voice to Lucina voice lol.
Alexis Tipton reprised her role for Engage, as she has continued to do ever since 2017 whenever there’s new Lucina dialogue.
Think default Lucina in Heroes is the last time Laura Bailey voiced Lucina. After that it’s all been Alexis
Laura Bailey doesn't do dubs for Japanese works anymore with the sole exception of coming back for Fruits Basket 2019.
This is just the Binding Blade arena
Hit with 51% is a miracle for me
This fight reminds me of Luffy vs Katakuri.
As Lucina, I can confirm I almost beat Diamant.
I getting PTSD flashbacks to Genealogy
TWO HITS.
Diamant is a god
How many Def has Diamand to tank so nicely ?
Not against mages AT ALL. One magic attack sends him to 1 HP.
@@zelxcdqgssui Def is not for mages, dude
STR+Faith builds VS DEX+INT builds in Dark Souls
What a nailbiter
Can you do Emblem VS Emblem in this mode?
Coughing Baby vs Hydrogen Bomb
Did dis woman landed her crit twice???
i feel one day of getting soft locked in there
We already have a measure and it takes too long in the end in a draw
Matemáticas hijos
Diamant doesn’t believe in the Dex stat
Let's see what you can't do sounds better
My boi Diamant just wanted to get beat up by a girl a lil bit is all, respec
This is definitely fire emblem in a nutshell 🤦🏾♂️
u heard it here first
3% > 51%
This has to be rigged !
That axe looks stupid
Literal skill issue
Women ☕☕☕
That is NOT a tomahawk, the hell?
It's FE bro