As the US grows older, is the decline as superpower inevitable? | DW News
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- Опубліковано 20 тра 2024
- The US birth rate dropped in 2023 to its lowest level in a century. As a result the United States is aging like never before.
It’s just one of the problematic realities highlighted in a new study prepared for the Pentagon.
The Rand study focuses on the relative decline in US standing, one that is accelerating. It lists many reasons, including addiction to luxury and decadence, loss of civic virtue, military overstretch, self-centered elites and environmental abuse.
DW talks to the lead author of another study that suggests countries - like their populations - age. And the older they get, the greater the probability of their demise.
00:00 Background
01:30 Marten Scheffer, Theoretical biologist
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#usa #superpower
The wealthiest in the US sold out the middle class
That happened a long time ago. About 1980. Though I wouldn’t say the wealthy sold out the middle class so much as the white middle class sold itself out. They voted for the politicians who fed on their insecurity by scapegoating others.
70% wealth belong to people in a small middle east country.
why do the rich always want slaves instead of a fair and functioning society
This is what happens when you adopt neoliberal economic policy.
The repeal of regulations and redistribution of extreme wealth through taxation results in the flawed, steam age algorithm of capitalism to work unimpeded, resulting in the bulk of the money supply to become stagnant capital, this in turn results lower living standards, low velocity of money, inexistent upward mobility, economic stagnation. Etc.
Not to mention that the reduced tax money from all these tax cuts has stagnated the field that made the US a global superpower: publicly funded scientific megaprojects.
@@happymelon7129
Sorry to say but that's not the case
The US is suffering from the repeal of the new deal regulations.
This has resulted in the algorithms of a steam age system with flawed mathematics (capitalism) to run with no correction system.
The result is the reduction of the slice of the money supply that the general population has access to as more and more becomes stagnant capital.
This in turn reduces living standards, purchasing power and the velocity of money, allows for monopolies and oligopolies to form and incentivises outsourcing.
This then bankrupts local and small businesses, ends upward mobility, dries up the budget that the US could invest in education and publicly funded scientific megaprojects (what made the US a superpower) and throws the US into a mentality of antagonism against it's own allies as it engages in a race to the bottom.
In short, you can thank Reagan for this mess.
"Addiction to luxury and decadence, a loss of civil virtue, military overreach, self-centered elites, and environmental abuse." And above all-greed. That's the U. S., summarized.
well SAID!!
Just the same as how the old Roman empire fell because decades of decadence.
The US government spends too much money interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, such as the Vietnam War, the Korean War, the Afghanistan War, etc., but has not considered spending the money on the American people. The streets of Los Angeles are full of homeless people and the streets of Philadelphia are overcrowded with drug addicts. I am Chinese China also has hundreds of millions of people struggling with poverty. If the people of China and the United States both focus on the world peace and stability, and work together on global temperature rise poses a serious threat to the survival of all mankind, and cooperate in issues such as new energy development, nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence control, the future of our world will be brighter
@@TinyBlitz8How to define the decline of an empire? It's an honest question.
@@dariomendoza191 Unfortunately.
Rome fell the Egyptians fell every power falls nothing stays the same way forever
Thank God.
While it's true that every empire eventually falls, just saying this fact is not terribly useful. Why is the US empore falling now, and not later? We should also look at the specifics, and not just historical fate. Below are some reasons.
First, mistaking war as a solution to economic problems. Instead of spending money, time, energy and brain power on economic solutions for economic problems, the US spends all these on war as solution.
Second, destroying the financial system, and I don't mean just the US financial system. I also mean the global financial system, which the US controls, and which allows the US to print money and have the world shoulder the burden of money printing overcapcity.
But printing money like there's no tomorrow is not all. When the US and EU seized Russian reserves, I and those with a common sense understanding of trust knew that the dollar was on the path to the sunset. If you can't trust a bank, you wouldn't put money in it. Simple as that.
Third, the political system is broken. I won't elaborate as UT would censor me. But you know what I mean.
the US knows this, which is why they will do everything possible to consolidate their power as long as possible. which is why even though I am anti-china and anti-russia, I am not pro-US. As they are only doing things that will eventually benefit themselves.
@@timmy-wj2hc Mecca, Beijing, Delhi, Lagos, Sao Paulo will rise.
Then stop begging US for money.
Egyptian, Rome, Umayyad, Qing, Mughal, Ottoman, Britain, USSR they all fell!
Qing is a dynasty... But China outlived all of those empire to date.
I don't understand what the video is trying to get at. There are some arguments for the US declining in power, but the claims, or implied claims this video, or at least the first speaker (not the one who was interviewed) made was incoherent. Is he saying the US is declining as a power because the US as a country is getting older? The US is only 248 years old. It is many hundreds of years younger than Britain was in say 1880 at the peak of its power. By that logic, the US could stay a top power for centuries to come.
Is he saying the US is declining in power because the average American is getting older as a result of a declining birthrate? That might be a good argument, except for the fact that almost the entire developed world, as well as the US' biggest geopolitical rival, China, have the same problem, and WORSE. This is to say that to the extent that a declining birthrate hurts the US, any possible rival to the US (besides India, who is decades from challenging the US in overall power) is being hurt worse.
It is true that the US' relative power now is not as great as say in 1945 right after WW2 or in 1991 right after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But in terms of staying the top overall power, the US only has one rival; China. And China is about to have a huge demographic crisis. Honestly, unless there is an implosion within the US, the US could stay the top power in the world for the entirety of the 21st century. Now, in this reality, there'd be other areas of the world with regional powers, more so than there was in say 1995. But the US would still be the clear number 1 power in the world
@@AW-zk5qbhe’s afraid to say the obvious
@@AW-zk5qbBy older they mean fertility rates, Lotta old people and not enough new people being born. Back in the day people had bigger families to help around the homestead. Nowadays children are just seen as an expensive nuisance, no foresight for the future...
@@AW-zk5qbagreed, while I definitely think it's inevitable that the US will lose its number one title, it's not anytime soon and even when it does it will still remain in the top three major powers alongside India and China. Being all speculative isn't very productive and I'm sure the US will do its utmost to delay it falling from number one. Even then, everyone is acting like the US will fall off from relevancy like it'll magically fall from being one of the worlds major economies. It just isn't realistic.
I like experts that are not afraid to admit the limits of their expertise. The guest does not pretend to have all the answers.
You would love Peter Zeihan
Zeihan is amazing. I rarely click on it, but he can generate a lot of conviction from little knowledge. A real "expert" so to speak.
This guest makes money off of people thinking the US is collapsing.
Can you throw more light on why you mentioned Peter Zeihan?@@WackadoodleMalarkey
True. Truly intelligent people are those who realize the outer edge of their knowledge is NOT the outer edge of the universe.
All countries that are developed with high income will have a higher aging population and lower birth rate. We see that in EU, SK, Japan and China.
I wouldn’t refer to China high income in fact I believe it’s been said that China is the first country to have a higher GDP before becoming a wealthy society in terms of GDP per capita.
Most countries have low birth rates now, even religious countries in the middle east
@@Chris-pq3wp Incorrect. They are still rising slower but rising. Even Iran a dictatorship had population increase. Easterners value family and tradition. Western culture ruined your current generation
@@Chris-pq3wp Come and see how religious the people of Middle East are.😂😂
China isn’t high income
" the most dangerous person is not a powerful man, but a powerful man losing power" - ida tarbell
aka, Trump
So many really capable leaders in the US. The choice between Trump or Biden is a bad joke.
General Hodges for president!
@@Kartoffelsuppe_m_Wursteinlage Hodges is a war monger fighting Russia to the last Ukranian.
The most dangerous knife is one that is sharp, that you think is dull
Why are men obsessed with having power?
Americas downfall was the push of capital over labor. You had it good in the 60s and 70s. But corporate greed made america collapse. Its too bad too. Lastest almost as long a rome
Hahahaha are you kidding lmao. Rome from 780 bc to 1453 ad lol America 1950 to 2015 lol.
@@liv2510to be fair 1776-2024, rome (yes cliche) wasnt built in a day and neither was the US, but you are correct that the US has only even existed 250ish years while rome lasted a millenia and a half, though rising and declining for many of those years. The US isnt going anywhere anytime soon and they're still economic and military giants, things do happen a lot quicker nowadays however so i wouldnt count on them reaching a millenia as the hegemon
Long live the CCCP and the CPC. 🚩💪
Workers of the World, Unite!💪
I'm sorry downfall, collapse? Since when has America collapsed? Must have missed that. Last I checked we have no military anywhere close to our NATO alliance. Last I checked our GDP is still the highest despite having less than a third of the population of China. Oh and China is not looking so hot right now. So I repeat, what in God's name are you talking about collapse? America is stronger than it has ever been in its history.
America has had no downfall. We are dialing back to be self sustainable. We grow our own food. We produce our own gas, oil, energy on a whole. Now we expanding our semiconductor production and soon we will need nobody else. We will also take care of nobody else. Tired of carrying the weight of the world when we don't need to.
This always has been and will be the norm, no one stays at the top forever.
Yeah but America we’re just a flash in the pan compared to the real powers of history
Then stop begging them for money.
Empires Rise and Empires Fall, it's happened throughout History.
The neocons swore in the 1990s after the end of the Cold War, that the US will remain the only power in the world, and it will never again allow another power to rise. Fukuyama even wrote a book 'End of History'. America would reign for ever, and there will be no more history.
@@blackout07blueWhy? If giving money is the only way they can contjnue the illusion of still being a superpower, why should we not exploit this win-win situation?
I'm 41 years old. I live in Boston. There's no way I can afford a place large enough for a family even on two incomes. But Jeff bezos can have 2 Hawaiian Islands, praise capitalism! 🙄
You got something better?
@@dustintacohands1107 Social democracy, simpel, but You americans seem to HATE everything that has the word social in it.
Captialism isn't the problem. Crony capitalism is.
@@CrusterfunkShenanigans yep it’s got a lot of death and stupidity associated with it.
Besides government is always garbage why do I need more of it?? I have enough already
@@Mr.Coffee576 Capitalism is an intermediary phase that can evolve only into socialism or devolve into neo-feudalism. Take your pick, but i doubt you'll get to be one of the new neo feudal Lords.
Perhaps expensive health care and one of the highest child mortality among western countries.
And child kidnappings.
Very simple: Whatever goes up, must come down! It is foolish to forget this. History has always pointed this
Too expensive to raise kids. 😢
dont worry, immigrants dont mind replacing you
@@simba8665 The more the merrier!
@@simba8665I will replace you
@@simba8665 Good, just like his kind replaced the Natives. Circle of life...
@@simba8665 We breed with each other lol. The entire nation is immigrants...
Honestly every single country seems to be in decline. From all the info Ive seen we are are not thinking our futures will be better.
Asia rises. Probably because LGBTQ liberal values aren't accepted there
@baronvonjo. You are looking only at the west.
@@katong1953 Name one country that is developed and doesn't have a declining population.
Even China which still isn't fully developed in all regions, has a worse population decline problem than the USA.
Maybe India, but its a long road and good luck with climate change before reaching the goal.
Corporations and governments want slaves. That is why they are worried.The world saw more peace when the population was balanced. A balanced world population is the only way to prevent WW3 or an environmental catastrophe.
@@gudnikristinn As long as China has one of the largest population on earth, I doubt its going to be an issue.
There are far more concerning news from USA.
The credit card debts, real estate market, prices skyrocketing for energy, groceries, , low wages, debt traps like cars, rents, mortgages, study credits.
We will hear complete other news in the months to come.
Not at all. Europe has mad news but it’s hidden by its media.
This is recent and truly troubling.
@@firstnamerequiredlastnameo3473 If I were president I'd do a lot
And almost everyone holding guns.... It will scary to imagine when it's fall imploded while people shooting each other's like while trying to plundere each others
Age is not the problem. The people here seem to have lost there common sense, moral compass and the rule of law is in jeopardy. The Constitution is hanging on by a thread. The American dream seems to be failing.
It's not failing but instead the truth about white lies is full display for all to see...
The Diversity dividend at work
I don't think the american dream was ever really a thing, to be completely honest.
Lmao. Literally every country is dealing with a far-right. Difference is US only has 2 parties.
@@atestzen5230 I’m sure that sounded smart in your head.
Few people can afford the basics of life, much less the extreme expense of raising children in the US
Plus they would be raising children in a system that supports wars and genocide overseas. And it has had plenty of practice with wars, slavery, and genocide at home going back 400 yrs. It's a terrible system, which is impervious to reform.
exactly. i won't bring a child into this mess....
@@PauloAdriano-zo2ng
Supporting a defensive war or a war to help people isn't bad.
But none of that has to do with decline or birth rates.
You can't look at the US rise and say it happened without war. Or that birth rates were about whatever issue you have .
@@GorgieClarissa
This reason doesn't really make sense. It's fatalistic. It's like you want the species to die cause it might die.
People blaming expense aren't being honest. The poor are the ones having kids.
And the poorest countries.
So it's kinda BS.
Especially when you look at free education countries and it's not any different.
The United States is at a critical juncture in its history. It have reached a point where the status quo is no longer acceptable, and change is necessary. To accomplish this, So it needs a new revolution - one that will bring about real, lasting change. This revolution will require courage, determination, and a willingness to challenge the status quo.
Government Debt : 34 Trillion
except that doesn’t matter. They make their own money.
@blackout07blue
... increasing inflation included.
most of that debt is to US citizens, and the US Dollar being the world's reserve currency offsets much of the problems of the debt
@AW-zk5qb
1.3 trillion in credit card debt with interest rates of 17-22%.
Late payment rates and payment defaults are increasing enormously.
People are exhausted and don't know how to pay all the bills.
Your gdp can handle it, you still are tge most consumeristic country in the world, have the strongest military and are the world reserve currency, every wealthy guy like to hoard usd ect, you underestimate your own country power
37 year ago , U$ has more than 50 midia company.
Now 90% are under just 6 cooperate, own by 15 people.
The main reason why a small middle east country able keep congress inline with them.
Sending tax $
Lutz, A. (2012, July 14). These 6 corporations control 90% of the media in America. Business Insider.
Who cares? The internet destroyed the business, the same way sneaker killed the shoe shine boy
Corcoran, M. (2016, March 30). Twenty years of media consolidation has not been good for our democracy. Moyers & Company.
USA has much higher levels of immigration compared to the likes of Japan, China and parts of the EU. So the population can remain young while the native born rate might decrease.
Agreed, great point 👍
Very true and is a large reason why this video isn’t accurate- it misses that crucial point that isn’t seen almost anywhere else in the west
Immigration to the US also changes American values too and what they see as more important. Americans of European ancestry will be an ethnic minority by the 2040s.
The video doesn't examine the fact that the US has one hand behind its back. We could always have corporate taxes and a housing program to fix things. The US also has access to space astroid mining which provides the nation with a new world of resources.
@@darrinm486 Astroid mining isn’t popular yet and is actually quite terrifying to any economy and would require national funding for such a project because any corporate entity that does this would immediately crash the price of the materials mine and breaking the market with it
Birth rates are declining everywhere. The US rate remains higher than most other advanced countries plus it attracts and accommodates significant immigration such that its population is growing and will do so for the foreseeable future. So if we are talking decline we are saying so while remaining ahead of its immediate competition in terms of hegemony. Is that really decline?
It would be helpful if in your notes you would indicate the title of Scheffer's paper and how one could get a copy to read.
It may be in decline, but that doesn't mean that the US is falling (like Rome). The Romans also experienced peaks and lows in their power. Imagine what their news would have said when their legions were destroyed in the Teutoburg Forest. "Roman Army annihilated in Germania, is Italy next?". And that battle took place 120 years before the Roman Empire reached the absolute height of its power. So, calm down. The US isn't going anywhere and I am thankful for that.
Excellent analysis. Thank you. 😊
I don't understand what the video is trying to get at. There are some arguments for the US declining in power, but the claims, or implied claims this video, or at least the first speaker (not the one who was interviewed) made was incoherent. Is he saying the US is declining as a power because the US as a country is getting older? The US is only 248 years old. It is many hundreds of years younger than Britain was in say 1880 at the peak of its power. By that logic, the US could stay a top power for centuries to come.
Is he saying the US is declining in power because the average American is getting older as a result of a declining birthrate? That might be a good argument, except for the fact that almost the entire developed world, as well as the US' biggest geopolitical rival, China, have the same problem, and WORSE. This is to say that to the extent that a declining birthrate hurts the US, any possible rival to the US (besides India, who is decades from challenging the US in overall power) is being hurt worse.
It is true that the US' relative power now is not as great as say in 1945 right after WW2 or in 1991 right after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But in terms of staying the top overall power, the US only has one rival; China. And China is about to have a huge demographic crisis. Honestly, unless there is an implosion within the US, the US could stay the top power in the world for the entirety of the 21st century. Now, in this reality, there'd be other areas of the world with regional powers, more so than there was in say 1995. But the US would still be the clear number 1 power in the world
Poor little boy, see what is happening. US are very few moves away from collapse but what does fall mean? Fall mean not bankrupt. It means they can no longer do what they want. Bossing around and invading other countries, regime changes, stealing etc..,. these are acts of greed and pride. It is bound to fail and US is the pinnacle in these acts and reaching a point to fail
@@AW-zk5qb Exactly, thank you for your comment. And even if China surpasses the US in terms of economic power, that doesn't mean that the US will just roll over and disappear. It will still be an incredibly powerful and prosperous nation and the leader of the Western world. I mean the Roman Empire and the Chinese Empire also co-existed and having one nation as the single super power has not really been the status quo throughout history, so if anything we are returning to a "normal" state of affairs.
True, the US will still be here, but it will not #1 anymore. Rising Eurasia is a potential for the future #1. Its growth is slow but steady. The expanding BRICS economic association is showing signs of becoming the future world dominating economic force.
BRICS has an advantage of being economic based, not military based, mutual respect among members, mutual help (re: China's building of infrastructure in other, smaller counties), gold based currencies, a new international commerce currency plus continued use of national currencies. The new BRICS invented currency will displace the unstable American petro dollar.
Russia (the R in BRICS) is a major player and is detaching from the West. Russia never got acceptance into the EU clique when it was interested for better commerce. Russia tried to westernize itself for acceptance by the West, but respectful acceptance never came.
So many really capable leaders in the US. The choice between Trump or Biden is a bad joke.
Many coutries are experiencing falling birthrate from europe to asia. South korea, japan is predicted to go extinct in the not so near future. China's population is expected to halved in 50yrs. US, is also experiencing falling birthrate but unlike other nations, more people are migrating to the US and thus replenishing its falling local population.
Falling local population means changes in political and world police atittude
Definitely it will affect foreign policy
To win, one must have soft power with hard power to back it up in case of external attempts at destabilization. Soft power comes from principled actions; not by deceit, lies, hollow talk, and broken commitments. The success of hard power is limited even over its own populace.
Jimmy Carter called it in speech on oil. We are in a time of loosing confidence.
Just one look at Mr Scheffer and I know: he is an expert on aging.
😂
One of the biggest strengths of the US is its diversity and steady flow of skilled immigrants. Unless something catastrophic happens this big ship is going to sail fine for a long time.
But their eurocentric policy will shift as demographic changes hAPPENES
@@joexavier4070 That is Europe's hope ...
@@eddastrohmayer251 I really don't know,where is my comment?
@@joexavier4070 YT as well as DW often censor comments... "Western style of freedom of speech"...
@@joexavier4070 Censored by YT or DW ...
I still feel that we haven't seen anything yet when it comes to America. America is the comeback kid always. Even Giants have set backs. Don't discount America just yet.
Required definitely
The US rose and peaked within a single generation and has been in deep decline since the 70s -- not exactly the stuff of "empires," is it?
And the Boomers destroyed America
US population
1920 - 90% white
1970 - 85% white
2020 - 57% white !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Who prevented them from procreating and having more babies?
Quit the blame game.
1600 100%Native American& 0%white
2020 0.7%Native American&
57%white
Actually it's less than that cuz they miss classified a lot of Hispanics and Arabs as Caucasians
Looks like an interesting paper. I wonder if it makes a difference between internal and external factors for the decline and maybe their interaction. Especially considering the chaotic internal situation in the US.
Nice to know things are so peachy in Europe that they have time to worry about the US.
"The closer the collapse of the Empire, the crazier its laws are."
How are our laws crazier than they ever were prior?
What laws are crazy besides some republicans states but the patriot law was worse and the usa survive it and the gfc.
They might diminish a bit but they have allies in almost all continents
US has enjoyed their dollar preference for a very long time.
The time has come to return the excess they have taken from the world.
Try that.
That’s not happening in a hot minute; the reserve currency remains because despite policy it is almost impossible for us to have the destabilizing effects of demographic collapse, political turmoil, or what have you relative to China which is the only other candidate/ literal insanity to change the reserve currency
Who currency you are going to use ? The British pound from a country that relies on the London financial district? The Japanese yen from a country that is stagnant for decades because of the usa? The euro with a treat of w•r looming over our heads? The yuan that one’s trusts their accountings?
It must be noted the cloud creat aftermath all those state which directly or indirectly connected with US Hegemony would also collapse? Kindly discuss
Every year there’s a new study about the US in decline yet the opposite keeps happening
Definitely us ride as a solo world power is over...
@@joexavier4070 there has always been other world powers, it was never “solo”, but it’s still bigger than all the others
If the USA are ageing and declining then what words to use to describe situation of China or Europe? Standing at the brink of grave?
China is still at its infancy. Europe is in the brick of death
Worry for yourself first
Yes.
coincidentally, last year the average age of the PRC passed the average age of the USA. The average age of PRC citizens is now 40, whereas for the US it is 39.
@@pccitizen1647 We don’t have anything to worry about though, we are miles ahead of Europe and China economically and security wise we are about the most secure states in the world which is so secure our population wants to return to isolation because we don’t have to care till the world forces us to(which is very rare and unlikely in the current world order of today).
This is very silly.the us has always been kinda the same.Europe just loves talking about decline and cycles they feel better about themselves
Well, things are going up and down,
Thus some are lost and some have won
Though sometimes heavy lies the crown,
May those devoted carry on
(in memory of R.W. Emerson)
Highly recommend everyone to read 1177 BCE by Eric Cline who discussed the Late Bronze Age collapse in comparison to our time now. An important read
That isn’t surprising, although birth rates for ourselves isn’t as dramatic nor important compared to Europe or any other country for that matter because we have one of the highest immigration rate in the world which contributes to the fact our population is only projected to keep growing- a rare phenomenon in the West.
But the countries where immigrants come from also have low birth rates and immigrants are also having less kids, yes the population might grow but down the road, you will have too many old people because immigrants also age
@@wamnicho Not really though; for South America(especially Argentina, Peru, and Brazil) this is the case but in states around the Caribbean birth rates haven’t dropped much and I don’t suspect it will+we can encourage immigration from elsewhere and encourage workers from abroad which would be the cream of the crop. My concern with the whole immigration thing is Mexico actually; the PRI(1913-1999)which had kept Mexico is a world below the US and notorious for its corruption and protectionisms is gone and liberal forces have emerged that actually are raising the people from where they were a decade prior. Long term more immigrants will want to stay in Mexico rather than here and Mexico is although the place that, once the domestic violence is gone, will be the grounds for progress and equal playing ground a Latin American worker would be better off in rather than challenge our highly competitive businesses.
@@jakebhenry2228 Its been shown once they get into the US they have less kids cause they have access to wide spread birth control and better economics really shows in their second generation.
Net migration. If immigration and emigration are considered together, net migration in Europe from 2000 to 2010 was plus 1.54 million people per year. From 2011 to 2021, it was 1.32 million per year.
FDR and the New Deal invested infrastructure, worker skills, and R&D. In 1980 that all stopped.
It didn’t stop, it has merely become static and isn’t moving up or down-economically all areas are similar to where they were relative to total spending(which has decreased due to Republican pressure to do so).
I was just laid off and now I'm unemployeded with only enough for two months rent. There's also a 5-7 Week hold on Colorado unemployment.
This is spot on!
Never mind the US birth rate
I wanted children but it's impossible. I don't make enough
The current State - as in “a state of being” is pretty boring and also tiring. What’s next ? Virtual reality so we can alter our state.. oh and legal fun, drugs.
Usa really needs a restart if it wants to stay on track.
American printing money from last 50+ years and China + EU is supporting in this business but they lost their culture and population 😇
😂 not a chance. From my understanding, our military is 14x bigger than it's nearest competitor.
Thats not true.
That's not true and you guys cant even recruit. No one wants to join😂😂😂
But what is the point..... nuclear weapons are enough to hold that powerful military...
@@VIKAS_PATEL1997 if nukes are getting involved in the warfare, all bets are off.
@@miguelmelchior986 what makes you doubt it?
"When there is a person, there is a problem. When there is no person, there is no problem."
-Joseph Stalin
Re the aging population of the USA, have a look at an age pyramid of the USA (google is your friend), then compare it to an age pyramid of Germany. If you want a real shocker, look at an age pyramid of Italy, or even worse, South Korea.
And, if ageing does become a problem for the USA, they can readopt an approach that has served them well since their founding. Let in lots of immigrants.
Usa as a world superpower is over
Amazing how much of the decline happened in the last four years
He literally said we can't determine if it will collapse because we can't base it off of premodern civilization since they aren't the same as contemporary times. Then goes on to try to explain why it will collapse. Is it just me or is it this whole piece a waste of time.
This is just wishful thinking on the part of Europeans. When I was coming of age, everyone was predicting the end of the US. The US had lost the war in Vietnam, Americans were sitting in long lines to buy gas for their cars, inflation was much, much higher than today, there was Watergate, an 8.3% mortgage was considered excellent, manufacturing was in huge decline. Everyone was predicting the Soviets would win the Cold War. Then, the Japanese were going to be the next superpower, and all Americans would be working for the Japanese.
People forget all the doom and gloom predictions of the 1970s.
Before that, in the 1930s, everyone was betting against the US and putting their money on the Fascists and Communists. But, that’s forgotten now.
When the Civil War broke out in the 1860’s, the conventional wisdom in Europe was the American experiment had failed, and many elites were relieved.
My point is, people often predict the demise of the US…and then forget.
Perception and wishful thinking don’t always equal reality.
yea but then again we have never been 34 trillion in debt without a plan of action to at least stop from going into more debt.
@@jonnym4670 Keep in mind, most of the debt (70%) is owed to Americans, primarily the US Federal Reserve. I’m not saying the debt doesn’t concern me, but in some ways it demonstrates investor confidence in the safety of investing in the US. The US can carry a $34 trillion debt without paying high interest rates because it is still considered a good investment. For historical perspective, people were worrying about the federal deficits in the 1970s, too. Nevertheless, I think we should be bringing the deficits down gradually.
@@greble11 they keep lower the interest rate year after so we can meet it they cant lower it much more and once that payment is missed any confidence is gone
Location , location, location. If you won the lottery, and were look-
King to buy a country to live in, the first one the real estate agent would show you would be the United States of America.
Twain was referring to the erroneous reporting of his death, but he could have been talking about the overreporting of the demise of the United States.
It's in a wonderful neighborhood, the views are marvelous, and there are some terrific water features, the transport links are excel-lent, and the neighbors? The neighbors are great, no trouble at all.
If you broke this living space up into numerous sections it would considerably lower its value, especially if the tenants did not all speak the same language and paid the rent in different currencies, but as one home, for one family-it can't be bettered.
There are fifty American states, but they add up to one nation in a way the twenty-eight sovereign states of the European Union never can.
Prisoners of Geography
Tim Marshall
That's what you get when you exempt everybody for own gain.
The trolls in this thread are ridiculous. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency. The US is the largest producer of oil. It has the biggest military in the world. It has a constant refresh of immigrants and just one of its corporations -- Apple -- has a market cap 50% of the size of the entire German GDP.
Sure, inevitably all states change somehow, and empires grow and fall. But the US isn't there yet. Not even close. Democracy is in decline all around the world. The end of the Cold War has brought new challenges. The demoralizing attitude from this professor and diminishment of the American experiment is kind of sad. If he's concerned about birth rates in the US, perhaps he'd be better off lecturing Republicans and a huge number of non-voters about the importance of a single-payer health care system and mandatory parental leave policies. Maybe starting a public campaign to encourage more young men to choose commitment and marriage over casual sex might help too.
Yeah, as a studier of political science and education major I find his suggestions extremely one sided and doomer; we are double the economy we were back in 2010 for example. The whole idea that we are in decline is absurd, although our global influence certainly is as we resettle back into isolationist politics but that doesn’t take into consideration the booming economy and booming commerce that is making that economy last and almost eternally so should we play our cards rights.
Thanks:
Typical German thinking . . .. After safeguarding Germany for the last 50 years, this is how you pay America back with a HIT Peace . . . . America is still on top and will be for the Next 100 years, can't wait for Poland & Ukraine to replace Germany as the defenders of Democracy in Europe as Germany continues to appease PUTIN at every turn . . . Shameful . . . .
Hello from Asia the US is about 30 years behide and pretty outdated...stop reading outdated information....The US military just a bunch of sitting ducks...
It may not have the biggest but it sure has the most expensive military in the world.
In any case USA is no longer what it was 10-20 years ago. And especially 80's.
This is an obvious decline
Uh huh. Whose Navy’s patrol the world’s oceans? Who’s got the best economy by far. Which nation do you think is really keeping Russia out of Europe. Come on. People been trying start these rumors for decades now. Besides everyone’s economy depends on everyone else’s. Globalization at its finest. If we go down then we all go down together 😂
Dude us not declining but as a solo world superpower ride over
@@joexavier4070 China is literally the only nation in the 21st century that could challenge the US for World Hegemony, and the US is ahead of China in every metric of power and influence; military, economy, cultural influence, political influence, technology, soft power. Economy is the only one of these topics that China could pass the US any time soon, and they are still $9 trillion behind and are actually growing slower than the US now. And China is about to hit a huge demographic crisis and many countries are pushing away from China. Of course no one can predict the future, and the US has its problems to sort out, but beyond an internal collapse of the US, the US could stay the world's top power for the rest of this century. Its relative power won't be as great as say in 1945 right after WW2 or 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but we could very easily be in the year 2070 and the US still be the top power in the world
@@AW-zk5qb ì don't think u never seen a bigger picture, a multipolar world is evolving ,it's not solely depends on china but rather than giving every country to create it own kind of democracy u failed understand how us involved in policy making every country around the world that has been dented it's part of declining mode ,also their dominence over lot of sector got lot of challengers my point is still valid us as a solo world power is gone ,of course u from us so I can understand ur perception about world is always dominated by the us the way us media feeds u
@@AW-zk5qb I doubt us has any more ,military ,economic power outside of it's spectrum anymore as a soft power its influence is remaining balanced but cultural woke definitely is not influencical
Yea great economy with grocery prices and all the layoffs. BTW as India grows China Russia and India will rule the seas
Oh well.
Dw talking about a "decline" but I hear militia here on a daily basis talking about different strategies to take government buildings and seize power.
Of course, mothers are not being supported like in several countries in Europe, my wife got 3 months of maternity leave and I am not talking about child care, which is crazy expensive, no wonder families don’t are tempted to have more children, or not even one.
Birth rates are still higher than anywhere else seen in Europe and immigration makes any decline in population effectively unthinkable for at least the next 30 years; Europe isn’t at that level yet
@@jakebhenry2228 Net migration. If immigration and emigration are considered together, net migration in Europe from 2000 to 2010 was plus 1.54 million people per year. From 2011 to 2021, it was 1.32 million per year.
@@arnodobler1096 Significant but not enough to offset the demographic crisis and lower population growth relative to her w
@@jakebhenry2228 to her w ???
@@arnodobler1096 Migration isn't a good thing
Just look at the Dutch and the British, history will repeat itself.
What happened to dutch Nd brits
@@joexavier4070 both were superpower at one time with the world's reserved currency but eventually declined.
@@DDGGVVMM Please, just look at the geography of the UK and Netherlands and their respective population and GDP and then compare it to that of the US. The US is mightier than both of those Empires ever were.
@@DDGGVVMM 👍
@@Melior_Traiano Source: Trust me bro
What goes up has to come down!
As an American, I would welcome this. Finally being able to withdraw properly from our commitments with the world and close our door to the outside setting. It will not happen though, our allies and partners security and life quality that they throw in my face is too dependent on USA hegemony.
US became superpower 80 years ago…. Dudes!!
That was back then. Today that power (based on military might) is declining. Fancy war toys do not sustain a country's true greatness. However, the historical ignorant do naively believe that might makes right.
one of the big reason the us became a superpower was because of its Manufactuing sector but that's been sold out
Scholtz is weak first he refuses to send Taurus and then he blocks asset transfer
DW, Sakartvelo protests need coverage!
Short answer yes!
Never mind the babies, are economy is a wreck and the interest we pay on our deficit now exceeds the repayment on the deficit.
The appearance of superpower or empire are an illusion and the time is fast approaching when we will have to decommission most of our navy and Air Force.
Every year people say the same thing and America gets stronger
Sorry dear...data shows otherwise their population is increasing due to immigration but ethnic Europeans in us in a declining mode ,so the eurocentric policy is shifting towards non centric that is the declining of us
Also political ,military influence and economic influence of usa which made them powerful also in declining mode as gaza war intensifies as their declining more visible thus trigger made people to think more about a multipolar world order
@@joexavier4070 You think immigrants are inferior or something? I think you are lost, the cross burning is that way =>
@@joexavier4070 What does it matter if ethnic Europeans decrease in population? We have integration systems that raise people of any race to a higher level of living and are much more used to it to European systems which because of the Welfare model they aren’t able to do nearly as efficiently. Also Eurocentrism will always be our interest regardless of majority or minority ethnic Europeans make up the state because economically we are interconnected y’all are our largest consumers.
@@joexavier4070 China is literally the only nation in the 21st century that could challenge the US for World Hegemony, and the US is ahead of China in every metric of power and influence; military, economy, cultural influence, political influence, technology, soft power. Economy is the only one of these topics that China could pass the US any time soon, and they are still $9 trillion behind and are actually growing slower than the US now. And China is about to hit a huge demographic crisis and many countries are pushing away from China. Of course no one can predict the future, and the US has its problems to sort out, but beyond an internal collapse of the US, the US could stay the world's top power for the rest of this century. Its relative power won't be as great as say in 1945 right after WW2 or 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but we could very easily be in the year 2070 and the US still be the top power in the world
Money is all that matters
The Highlighted question was will America decline as a superpower. Our military might is very powerful, our system of government is very, very good, I am learning as long as people abide by it, the people, I admit, are struggling with what seems to be an identity crisis. From my point of view, there are a few major sources that are messing with the American people, one would be the monopolized capitalist structure of the modern economy, the labour force is practically already under an oppressive regime while the profits are skyrocketing towards the already wealthy, to remedy this, there needs to be more competition against these enormous companies and a higher progressive tax on the top 1% won't hurt much. These actions may bring more stability and balance for the people. Right now, we have very, very wealthy interest groups who are a minority that are getting their way in a democracy, let me show a symptom, whenever there is a poll, and within that popularity poll the topic is favoured by 70-+ percent and the system of governance doesn't support that *will* the system is not 🚫 working for the people as much as it should. The government as a whole are not listening to the will of the people in a democracy which is a system of governance of the people, by the people, and *for* the people. Money, in short, is ruining our democratic system by blending the system with capitalism where governance is an open market where justice ⚖️ is bought, policy is bought, and thusly the poor 99% are being left behind without much of a voice because they cannot pay their dues even though they pay their taxes while the wealthy do not 🚫.
Another influence that is deteriorating the will of the people is the social distortions and cancel culture movements. This is where there is a moral compass that acts like they are the superior moral compass and everyone else is basically corrupt, immoral, poisonous, and whichever degrading, disparaging, description they want to put on other people. This voice is quite loud and influencial by putting insecurities and doubts into the minds of people while twisting their held beliefs to suit their needs of moral and systematic domination.
Just like its own citizens have lost interest in towns and cities foreigners might also lose interest in the whole country and it will become irrelevant where nothing happens people will move on to the next big thing, I don't think it's going to decline-decay
The US doesn’t need kids to work those sophisticated weapon systems.
That europe begs for.
8 billion people on the planet. When it doubles, we can come back to this subject.
The fact is America is not just a state, it is an empire. And the life-span of empires is 200-300 years.
Their government is so vested in woke culture. Why will they not experience population decline?
Germany needs provide more support to the US to ensure the world order is maintained
Germany need support from Russia to maintain its economic growth..
I think it’s the other way round actually; our economy is booming and is double to what it was in 2010 while Germany in the last 2 years has begun to stagnate slightly.
@@mominurrahman2558Russias economy has the size of Ny city ……. No way that Russia can help anyone. It can’t even help it self 😂
@@user-gt3ur4mq6u But its size and resources are not..
@@miguelmelchior986 The entire Russian oil and gas industry exports have the same size as the turnover of Volkswagen group. 1 German company outperforms the entire Russian sector…..
25% of Russians have no access to indoor plumbing. The minimum wage is 200$ a month and also the countries poverty line with 16% of people being bellow it.
And now you want to compare this to Germany the 3rd biggest industrial nation in Europe with a GDP per capita 6-7 times higher than Russia and tell me that they are dependent on Russia for economic performance?
Russia has not 1 top 100 company. Not one noticeable technology company. The only valuable thing they can produce is digging oil out of the ground.
No car brand, no fashion brand, no computers, no phones, no semiconductors, no aviation industry which can compete. Nothing ….. only oil … and I don’t know how many times someone said Russia will now produce all these things them self 😂🤣 and since 2014 …… nothing.
Russia would need 200% growth to reach the same level as the gdp of Germany.
All 145 mio Russians, with all oil and gas exports and its military complex, are economically competing with ….. let’s say Paris and Frankfurt combined.
2 cities with the areas around, can outperform the entire Russian economy.
Now think what kind of tremendous failure Putin and his government must be to make such a joke out of Russia.
Chinese even older
their government is only like 100 years old though??
@@dustintacohands1107 Imperial China has been around for thousands of years, pretending to be "Communist" or whatever is just a paint change.
@@dustintacohands1107 so?... chinese civilization is still chinese civilization.
@@diamondlion47 are you saying Winnie the Pooh is the emperor now???!!?!
@@gtaraya true a fish taco is a taco I will consider this over dinner
Each system has its limitations, the end of Capitalist system is now.
Nothing lasts forever. It's sad,isn't it?
Nah, it gets boring after while
As an American, I don't really want it to be a giant empire that rules over all other nations. I've seen what evils occur when one entity has too much power in the world. Unfortunately, Idk if there's a way to gracefully go from world empire back to a republic without a catastrophic collapse.
We've never been a global empire as much as the leader of a global maritime trade coalition based on similar democratic values. That's very sustainable.
It doesn’t matter the way in which return into isolation less we for some reason re-embrace protectionist economic policies and deter business and immigrant, if we don’t do this we are fine.
@@jakebhenry2228look like that is going to happen pretty soon
Instead of arming Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, US tax payer money should be spent on infrastructure, healthcare and education.
Our education is already extremely high(highest funding-per-student)- it’s just the number of teachers, their pay, and socio-economics keeping it seem so terrible(which as an ed major I can say it is at least on the employment level)
Good way to help dethrone your country as number 1😂 it’s doesn’t even account for 2% of gdp ,Americans need to study their own country
@@jakebhenry2228 Spend the money on education, not indoctrination. Will get better results.
@@PerceivedREALITY999 Indoctrination? What public schools are sectarian or push politics because it’s strictly illegal and teachers can get into serious trouble
@@jakebhenry2228 I'm referring to corrupting young minds. Do you know what they teach young kids at school these days?
The longest dynasty, empire, etc is the Tang Dynasty in ancient China, it lasted 700+ years. If you study China Ancient History, Tang Dynasty was the Richest dynasty in ancient China. It empire position was not inheritable by son of empire but by merit of knowledge. It also had a proper tax system which the rich paid tax and the poor was taken care off. The people in closed to 500 years lived well and it was also the growth of culture and many things... yet it ended! America...matter of time.
Make sense in the history
As an Albanian, may the US continue prospering and growing stronger. 🇦🇱🇺🇸
The obsession ya'll have with the USA downfall... keep wishing though :D
It's a very appealing narrative to many types of haters lol
So everything is fine and dandy ?
@@Mr.Coffee576 Compared to how both this video and this commenters suggest, we are in heaven already.
As a Solo superpower ride is over ,us now going through a period where they have to accept the fact multipolar world is raising
@@joexavier4070 China is literally the only nation in the 21st century that could challenge the US for World Hegemony, and the US is ahead of China in every metric of power and influence; military, economy, cultural influence, political influence, technology, soft power. Economy is the only one of these topics that China could pass the US any time soon, and they are still $9 trillion behind and are actually growing slower than the US now. And China is about to hit a huge demographic crisis and many countries are pushing away from China. Of course no one can predict the future, and the US has its problems to sort out, but beyond an internal collapse of the US, the US could stay the world's top power for the rest of this century. Its relative power won't be as great as say in 1945 right after WW2 or 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but we could very easily be in the year 2070 and the US still be the top power in the world
Short answer? Yes.
I mean it is a global trend, women demand more autonomy
The US will diminish for a time but assuming it doesn’t tear itself apart it will rise again as a super power in time.
Its recourses and geography just ensure that.
Exactly, geography is destiny and ours is unmatched. Thank the Founders and early Presidents for acquiring this vast territory.
@@reallyhappenings5597like russians 😂
@@joexavier4070 Russia is mostly limited to being a land power, which is inferior to being a land and sea power.
@@reallyhappenings5597 china will fill that gap
Nope US is falling 🤣🤣
...and then the world will tear itself apart
No, the US is trying to do that to the world as it goes down.
More like Heal and Prosper.
@@katong1953 No, we are trying to leave the world behind because a majority of the population just doesn’t care for it and because we have nothing to fear.
I hope so.
That way we wouldn't have to give almost 1 trillion dollars to the military to fight foreign fights and instead invest in improving the lives of the people within the country.
We’ll be fine
Fall of the modern Roman Empire
As they all do..
Fall how? Our economy is stronger than ever, NATO is stronger than ever. America is stronger than its been in its entire history.
@@diamondlion47 Keep telling yourself that.... It seem Babylon is declining.
Greatest GDP in the world. Europe begs them for money. Lol
@@Exxperiment626 then stop begging america for money.
The end of the last world empire
So fast? The experiments on the American brand of capitalism, liberalism, governance system, and morality can only sustain an empire this long..
As long as you allow the few to have the vast majority of the wealth , societies will collapse. MIT predicted a collapse, the symptoms being noticeable by 2040. If child birth rate is a problem , then perhaps making it so that families are things that two adults can ACTUALLY AFFORD should be the priority.