Trev as someone who spent time working as a scout for PBR. The reason kids care about their velo at their showcase is because it’s the most important thing. More important than actually pitching well. We had velo requirements in order to post a kid on the pbr website. Even if the kid gave up a Buncha runs we would still post videos that make him look good because he throws hard and someone will sign him. On the flip side a kid can throw a perfect game but if he throws only 79 at 16 and we wouldn’t post them because it will actually hurt them. Colleges would see his velo without seeing him ever pitch and cross him off their list. The velo problem will never go away for kids until it isn’t the most important thing that scouts, colleges, and mlb teams look at.
What about spin rate? Is that accounted for at all? Guys used to pitch 9 innings. Satchel pitches every other day. Maddox and finesse pitchers don’t seem to have the TJ problem. Maybe accounting for spin rate will take the pressure off velo alone
@@ryanharber4512 at scouting events we would have a track man or something similar to track spin rate. But we wouldn’t have them at the tournaments. Colleges look at it but for example, it would be like a guy throws 88 and the college scout is trying to figure out if his stuff is d3 or d2 level.
@@nickfiscella9267 I don’t think it will until someone proves they can compete at an mlb level topping out at less than 88 in the 2020’s Which will never happen because they don’t make it that far. the d2 college I go to all the starters throw in the mid 90s.
@@nickfiscella9267 plus there are guys who already have the best stuff who also throw 100. U cant convince jacob degrom to stop throwing his 94 mph, 3000 rpm slider
it's a problem at all levels. i'm a junior in highschool and i had tommy john surgery 3 months ago because of heavy velocity training that wore down my arm. only gets worse the higher the level sadly
if you’re doing the ‘lose your DH’ rule, the DH should be replaced with the starting pitcher so it’s an actual disadvantage, and don’t just let them get pinch hit for, allow that only for injuries.
re MLB Pitcher injuries, the main point here is that velocity is the golden ticket to an MLB Prospect scouting report. scouts will always feel more comfortable selling a prospect if they have 'elite' fastball velocity. the trickle effect of this is the main cause of this MLB issue. until there is a philosophy shift in MLB organizations prioritizing availability as the best ability, there won't be a resolution.
It feels like hard throwing starters are turning into the running backs of the mlb. Heavy usage early in their careers, by the time they are 30 a lot of their arms are shot
It's a bit of Catch-22. MLB teams don't want their star pitchers getting hurt, but so many teams are (as Trev pointed out) using velocity as a way to judge their potential. If a team wants fewer pitchers going under the knife, they should have fewer high-velo arms in their organization. And I think Trev is bang on, maybe high velocity isn't as effective in suppressing offense as many believe.
They need to play fewer games, shorten the season. They're expecting dudes to throw 95+ from February preseason to October now. I don't think anyone's arm can hold up that long
@@gstlb Having pitchers going deep enough to call games again has been my dream for years. I used to love the hype around pitching matchups. Feels like we lost something with that going away. If everyone got rid of their starters though, I would probably stop watching all together. The concept of an "Opener" is repulsive to me. Just feels like a way for teams to grind through and burn out undervalued talent before they hit their 6 years of MLB service time.
Fastball velocity is the exit velocity equivalent for pitchers. It’s flashy, and if you throw it that hard you have a bigger margin for error, just the same as a really hard hit grounder might eat up an infielder. To take the message of lower velocity pitching to the younger generation, we need superstars who are lower velo pitchers, and that’s so much harder to promote when it’s NOT as exciting as the radar gun lighting up in triple digits. Even early in my Yankees watching days, Betances and Chapman making the tv score bug light up in literal fire with each fastball got me so hyped. We need to sensationalise DOTTED pitches. PAINTED, on the black. We need some way to make THAT as exciting as a 101mph fastball dead centre of the zone, and that’s HARD when umpires are much more impactful on the results of a pitcher’s well placed pitches, than the fast ones.
But Mr. Plouffe if the balls were the issue, what kind if ball are kids using in middle and high school? It's the emphasis on pitching velo fromm that tender age that if a 16 yr old kid doesn't hit the 85mph mark, he has no future as a pitcher.
i don’t know if you’re trolling or not, but he’s talking about the ball being an issue for major leaguers. actual MLB pitchers have said the same thing. and trev mentioned the emphasis on velocity for the kids, esp on baseball today. he talked about a lot of things being wrong so idk why you just picked out that one thing.
Sorry to sound as a throller but i didn't watch this ep live and i just reacted on the ball issue since kids have being getting the TJS as early as high school and college, so the ball is not totally the issue, but it was my baď, sorry to sound like a troll.
I think it’s funny that we’re talking about speed limits and stuff to de-incentivize throwing too hard, but isn’t the consequence of throwing too hard exactly what’s happening? Throw too hard and hurt your arm and then jeopardize your ability to throw going forward or like in Shane Bieber’s case jeopardize your free agency year, I don’t think there needs to be any other consequence, no one other than the pitchers themselves have any ability to force them to throw hard enough to hurt themselves. I agree that we should do something for the kids though, I like no radar guns. Growing up I was always one of the hardest throwers in the leagues I played in, but there was only one time I was ever clocked and I didn’t even see the number. All that mattered to me while pitching was limiting hits and walks, I’d rather be able to keep playing baseball and throw a little less velocity than hit some arbitrary velo number and not be able to play.
Policing people’s velocities or setting velocity limits based on body types would make me check out of baseball. The answer is murky and multi-faceted, and it likely is rooted in changing how youth baseball works. Also, getting rid of radar guns in non-pro settings would likely further benefit the wealthy as they would go to outside facilities for velocity-based training. Kids who can’t afford to go to fancy facilities or pay private coaches will be at a further disadvantage to be noticed if their velocities aren’t formally recognized by their high school or college. Limiting the craze on velocity for youth ball is a great idea, but it’s tricky to enforce across the board
Adding another couple points to my last comment. There are a lot of things that play into why kids get scouted based on velo. 1 the batters they’re facing likely are never a good indicator for the types of batters they want to be facing. 2 it’s way easier/faster to get the velo data to scouts than it is to get them all their in game performance data. 3 it’s like scouting a 7’ basketball player because “you can’t teach height” and much like you talked about Aroldis having the body to throw like that although we’ve figured out how to teach velo you can’t teach a body to be sustainable while throwing like that. We need to put a focus back on players listening to their bodies and knowing when they’re pushing too hard. Maybe an alternative to looking at velo for scouting young pitchers could be live pitching sessions against some higher level hitting (recently retired higher level ball players, minor leaguers, college hitters) that will give a better idea of pitching approach and mental toughness than just saying this dude can throw 96 at full effort with no regard for control. It takes more work and more people, but it would give you a better idea of how a pitcher can handle a higher skilled hitter. It’s like driveline where the focus is how well they attack at bats instead of velo and spin rate etc… and maybe that already exists, but it just doesn’t get the attention it should. Banning radar guns until pro ball would help put the focus on that. Chasing velo is just so ridiculous because it’s such an arbitrary number. Jolly’s video on Freddy Peralta (I think that was the one) which talks about perceived velo and how even though he doesn’t throw 100 it looks like it’s way faster than it is and it’s effective shows exactly why chasing 100 for example is such a silly idea.
It’s actually insane to me how people can doubt the fact it’s the increase importance in velocity. People blaming the pitch clock are the exact people who didn’t want the pitch clock, they’re just reaching for reasons to get rid of it
I feel like pitchers need to follow what Jordan hicks is doing. We know he can throw 100+ but he’s throttled down a little to sit around 96ish. Seems much more sustainable
As a guy who watches football as my first sport and baseball second, this reminds me a lot of when the concussion movie was released. The solution ended up being teaching kids and, more importantly, coaches, how to teach kids to play football a safer way.
The concussion problem in football is not even close to being solved. Repeated head trauma is an integral part of the game, as long as football is played, CTE will continue to affect many of its participants. Same with boxing, you can somewhat lower the dangers with less hard sparring for example but when it comes down to it, one unavoidable fact just cannot be worked around. Repeated head trauma is bad for your short and long term health. Essentially the same thing with baseball. Throwing a baseball this hard will ruin your elbow. Just no way around that unfortunately.
@@masonhiemstra2188 You said that was the solution to the concussion problem. What I'm telling you is that there's no way to play football that doesn't include head trauma and therefore CTE. You presented it like something that has been solved, but it hasn't and won't be solved. The core problem is unsolvable. There is no "safe" way to play football.
@Greenkeeper132 There is a safer way to play, and that's all that I said. I never said concussions would be fully gone from the game, just like torn UCL's will always be a part of baseball, but there is a way to make it SAFER not completely safe and void of all risk. Everyone who signs up to play a sport understands that there is a risk of injury.
@@masonhiemstra2188 You said "The solution ended up being". Even if that change has had any effect whatsoever, we won't know until years down the line. The "solution" of playing the game in a safer way is mostly make-believe. People want to play and watch football and so they tell themselves they're doing it in a responsible way now. There has been no solution and nothing so far that suggests the game is even relatively safer than it was before the publications of papers on CTE.
I like the idea of a velocity maximum - even if not in the Major Leagues, at the youth level. I played in leagues growing up where kids under 14 weren't allowed to throw curveballs, etc since the idea was that their arms weren't developed yet. I don't know how much sense that makes, but having some amount of maximum makes a lot of sense to me.
Almost all pitching injuries happen because chasing velo and are one of 3 issues - and # of pitches not the issue 1) over throwing - chasing velo compounded by... 2) cascading conditioning needed... legs, shoulder, arm, elbow. If one isn't good the problem cascades as it goes from what should be stronger to weaker and critically... 3) many players not warmed up enough before trying to throw too hard - going zero to 100 on throwing.
I read someone say that the TJ rates have gone up so much because there's no break. There's school teams, travel teams, select teams, off-season training, etc. There's no recovery period.
The late Dr. Frank Jobe, for listeners that don't know who he was, he's the the orthoped that perform the first surgery on a pitcher elbow and that pitcher was Tommy John and the surgery started referred to as the TJS, well Dr. Jobe once stated that the elbow ligament fully matures up until the age of 26. So make your conclusion
Always throwing at max effort is part of the pitching injuries. Maddox talked about this. The pitch clock was implemented to get them to stop, and instead they're just trying to blow through it and getting hurt.
Baseball needs to change! Bring back the art of pitching. Velocity, as Trev pointed out, does not stop hitters from hitting. All it does is cause injuries.
Agree with everything Trevor said about the Pitcher Injury topic. I think tendon and ligament exercises do exist and are working Generally speaking but i'm far from a expert and i don't know how much they are used in Baseball.
The reason for so many injuries is TJ surgery. Pitchers used to know not to go all out constantly or their career would end. Now they go 100 percent all the time knowing they can get TJ when the arm goes out.
25 seconds to stop the guys who would take forever to pitch. But this is ridiculous. Some games the commercials are longer than the innings!!! Someone explain to me how that’s more fun to watch? Bryce Harper said it best “we just want our game back”
Hank Aaron: 3771 hits, 624 2B, 98 3B, 755 HR, most for a RH batter. Most total bases, all-time. Most RBI, all-time. This man is UNDERRATED. And a class act. I know that's not what we're talking about, but as class an act as this game has ever seen.
Look at Bryce Elder as another example. He barely clears 90 on his 4-seamer, but any success he had, the reactions were always "I don't know how he does it" or "he's getting lucky." Maybe, just maybe, there's more to getting guys out than velo.
Except Elder was definitely getting lucky. All of his peripheral numbers showed it. Batters hit the ball well above league average exit velo against him, had above league average barrel rates against him, and had a FIP of almost 4.5 which shows his defense did most of the heavy lifting. Velo isn't everything, but Bryce Elder's extremely lucky first half last year isn't the argument for that.
@@apacheman3131 I don't think you can say that so definitively. Two of your stats involved the league average, but think about what that means in a league that prioritizes swing and miss. You're using a relative stat. You're comparing his exit velos to that of the broader league that's obsessed with no contact at all. In other words, maybe Elder's avg exit velo is just fine, and it's the league that's creating unrealistic, unsustainable exit velo numbers that end up getting used as the measuring stick. It's not Elder. It's the measuring stick. Moreover, know what isn't captured in these peripherals? Availability. I'd rather have a guy who can consistently give me 180 innings with a 4 ERA than a guy who gives me 160 innings, a ton of K's, and 2 years before he blows out his elbow.
Plenty of examples of that over the years too. Maddux, Stroman, an Hendricks to name a few I can think of off the top of my head. All guys that barely throw/threw above 90 that have all had success in their careers. If you can locate, sequence and tunnel really well you can still get big leaguers out.
@@Gnar_Doggkershaw lost his velocity years ago and look how effective he still is. but he does struggle with injuries, mainly back ones. he didn’t need surgery on his arm until his mid 30s (this past offseason)
There is also a problem where coaches and organizations get paid based on success. So these organizations don't necessarily have the players best interests on their minds because there is an endless supply of high velocity pitchers waiting for their shot. So given players desire to max out, and organizations encouraging (enabling) it, you can't stop it. There will need to be some significant data that demonstrates *something* where at a certain point velocity has diminishing returns, not including the injures.
Ligaments can only handle so much pressure before snapping. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the UCL can only handle 9 lbs of pressure, and a 90 MPH fastball puts an average of 11 lbs of pressure on the ucl. It's a velocity and mechanical issue, along with grip and the arm action of certain breaking pitches. I'd also like to add that when you artificially increase offense, you're going to cause pitchers to take risks and push themselves to the brink.
Baseball pitchers have become the new NFL running back- expendable. You better have a minor league system full of 'em because you are going to need them. Of course we could go back to teaching pitchers to win with location and pitch sequencing- see Greg Maddux- and not push EVERYONE to throw over 95. A pitcher with great mechanics and location can get by with 92. Oh, and having a few knuckleballers in your system wouldn't hurt.
The idea of opening the strike zone has me thinking, wouldn't it be better to shrink it instead? that way it promotes more pin point accuracy since fast throwers have less control?
21:10 I'm pretty sure this would be cause a massive Streisand effect. Also when you look historically at league wide OPS why do you assume hitters have not gotten better too? The pitchers have definitely gotten better and now throw harder, why do you assume that hitters have not seen a general improvement as well over time? Only focusing on OPS trends and whether or not pitchers throw hard seems like a one dimensional analysis, especially when there's hitters to consider as well.
I've learned a fair amount about arm shoulder ligaments/tendons since I got really into rock climbing the last couple years, queue the memes, but its surprising how most docs don't have an a lot knowledge to draw from when figuring out what to about ligaments/tendon issues. We can repair tears after they occur, but when it comes to training and prevention it's the Wild West. If you have a tendonitis flair it's almost always rest and take ibuprofen, but sometimes my tendonitis flairs bc I'm resting. So many tiny tears can occur within the shoulder/elbow due to repetitive use weakening ligaments/tendons over time. It is s incredibly hard to tell what's sore from use and what is injured in these parts of the body. Not to mention figuring out load management is super subjective to the individual. The science just isn't where we need it to be.
I think all the stress goes through your ucl when pitching no matter what other physical traits you have. So these tall muscular dudes ultimately you can't make your ligament stronger
@@manager4409 you can strengthen your ligament, its just takes alot longer than muscle and I imagine the ucl is very difficult to isolate. And these guys are wearing it down every 5/6 day. There is a study (Minimizing Injury and Maximizing Return to Play: Lessons from engineered ligaments" by Keith Baar") on light loading ligaments daily over time to increase their strength. This study was regarding knees ligaments, but some climbers have used this to create a finger training protocol which led to some pretty amazing results. It also led to a lot of debate on if it made them stronger or if it just led to their tendons being healthier. Sorry if I nerded out too much there.
When i left High school in 92 the magic number was 90mph. Scouts would say- if you hit 90 at the tryout, we'll draft you. Also, guys in the high 90s still get their tits ripped. Look at Kopech.
These players are the case study for what is going on, if you want to get into the why's behind the injuries study these pitchers, there could be so many factors as to why but how much everything comes into play who knows
I will suggest a simple but drastic little change that will crumble all the game's structure: bring down the balls and strikes count from 4-3 to 3-2 and get rid of the pitch clock and the radar please. Plus on a 2-1 count you can foul up to 5 times one additional foul you're out. That will reduce the # of pitches and the workload on every pitcher
Really sad that it’s becoming more of a problem with the younger players. I remember when I played, it was all about velo, no matter if you hit 4 batters a game or walked 6 batters. If you were one of the harder pitchers around you were looked at.
Look at a guy like Merrill Kelly. The guy isn’t throwing hard but is just getting better and better as time goes on. Control is still king but it’s easier to find a guy these days that throws 98 than finding a guy that can consistently hit the corners.
Maybe what MLB needs isn't faster pitching, but more variation in pitching. It's tough to adjust to 2019 Gerrit Cole one night and 2019 Zack Greinke the next, or Tim Wakefield and peak Craig Kimbrel in the same game.
Maybe recruiting changes mindset on velocity. Instead of thinking velocity is a plus but maybe start thinking of it as a liability. Idk it’s a rough issue to tackle
The research seems to show that throwing more pitches in the early year (move from seasonal to all year baseball) and kids throwing types of pitches too early are also factors in the big increase in injuries. Kids are trying to throw harder but it can't great for 8 year olds to be throwing curveballs given the amount of stress that puts on an arm. Regarding pitch clock, if they are rushing, then most likely it throws off the mechanics. That seems to be the case with Strider (or his ongoing poor mechanics at times)
It's obvious they need to shorten the number of games. They have a whole preseason so in February they're already throwing hard then 162 games into October. The human body can't take that
I wonder if there is a test that can be done to determine how strong a players ligaments are? Sort of like a bone density test? There have been studies on cadavers to determine how strong a UCL is, I wonder if this can be correlated to some kind of test on living tissue. Such as , this UCL handled 80 pounds before tearing and has a 'ligament density' of X. This players UCL also has a density of X, so we can expect his UCL to withstand 80 lbs of force. Something like that.
Do you think there is anything to the fact that young pitchers are being babied all the way up the ranks now as well? Maybe having young players throw lots of pitches actually strengthens the elbow rather than damages it? That along with new mechanics for added velo and spin rate.
It’s a tough issue no doubt. Obviously you can’t cap a speed limit in the majors cuz a huge part of the game is seeing pitchers deal their best stuff and this would just destroy baseballs watchability. I think the most obvious answer is having rules and limits for kids in little league in travel ball. It’s rough because u can’t monitor what a kid does on his own time and if he wanted to increase velo/ learn new pitches he could. I think there are rules that can be put into youth baseball such as no pitches that can damage the arm more like sliders, curveballs etc. also a velo limit could make sense. As far as majors the simple answer is just having pitchers pitch less. It sucks cuz everyone wants to see the studs on the mound as much as possible. But an appearances, innings, and pitch limits could be potential rules we see down the line in the future. Tommy John seems at least once seems inevitable for any high volume pitchers, but these rules seem reasonable to at least lower arm damage and younger ages and see pitchers not have to get Tommy John until later in their career. Idk. Just a brainstorm of ideas that could help
Maybe there is something to being built like a Defensive End like Aroldis Chapman in order to handle throwing 100+ mph consistently, or it could be because he's a reliever.
On board with most of everything said except Trev's comment about historical OPS. The reason OPS hasn't changed much is BECAUSE of pitchers throwing harder and getting better. If they didn't, while batters improved, then OPS would be near record high. All you have to do is look at the batter stats against each MPH to get immediate proof... And batters are struggling against those pitches DESPITE the fact that the accuracy on them tends to be lacking.
I have 2 takes on this, and they are both nearing "Old man yells at clouds" territory but I thino they hold some merit. Look at the guys that had major success and avoided injuries, like Mark Buerhle, and diagnose what they did that took stress off of their elbow. With so much biomechanics data out there, someone is gonna find a middleground where you can have the break and pitching success while protecting the ligaments. My other take is far more aggressive, but its worth discussing. You can physically pitch without a UCL, guys did it historically... what if you took guys with torn UCL's and found ways to effectively pitch without it. Can't tear what's already torn.
The Tigers started off hot, but I am still VERY worried about this team. Their offense is nonexistent and this has been the case for years. Their pitching might keep them competitive, but I expect lots of low scoring close games.
Guys throwing 110 percent at all times for velocity and then being rushed with pitch clock. Old school pitchers even Verlander in his career found the zone first couple innings and threw harder as the game went on. Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens those types of pitchers threw hard last few innings of start. I agree with Trev
For my O's, we're struggling to hit. But what do we have in spades down the organization? Hitting. So not currently worried. Would prefer to see Stowers, Holiday and Mayo/Norby over Hays, Mateo and Kemp though
Hey guys I'm a DPT (doctor of physical therapy) at Steadman-Hawkins clinic in Denver. We see a lot of athletes, our shoulder/elbow surgeon is the surgeon for the Rockies. I'd love to chime in if you're lookin for a pro.
Conversations like this always intrigue me because it reminds me of game theory, not in the mathematical sense but in video game sense. I think the word is heuristics for the study of how to win these “game” settings the most optimally. We have created a set of rules on how to win the game, so strategies develop to win the game. The meta game is looking how these strategies compare to each other. The cycle usually starts with the meta game developing, we have to start somewhere, so first the rules set the stage. These strategies are either focused on maximizing Offense or defense or in this case batters (runs scored) or pitching/fielding(run prevention). As the MLB are the Game Master, determining what rules consist the game. Changing them as needed to try to balance the strategies ensuring there is sufficient counter play and so that one strategy is not far superior to rest. However the MLB (and to an extent all Game Masters) suck as this because for a strategy to be effective and worthwhile over being average at everything it has to be inherently unfair. The players never usually realize this at first as they play within the confines of the rules ever pushing on the edge. For example, batters dominated under hand pitching so then pitchers started throwing overhand. But sometimes the rules need to be changed because the meta has been solved under its current conditions such as in the case of decreasing the number of balls for a walk from 6 to 5 to 4. As pitching out competed batting, exploiting that weakness in the rule set. However these is a weird case where a strategy is being pushed to the limits against all logic. And that’s what Plouffe’s comment “Why hasn’t OPS gone down” was a perfect analysis of the baseball meta game. We are pushing a run prevention strategy beyond its value. There is a point where throwing harder does not have the same value as we think we do from a non-meta perspective. And once the greater expanse of baseball decision makers realize that the hopefully the focus on Velo will be toned down. If not I could see MLB stepping in with a rule change and I do not envy the person who has to think of an elegant solution to this problem
They touched on this idea, but I think it’s maybe feasible. If a pitch in MLB is thrown faster than a predefined limit, (95? 92?) it’s an automatic ball. The limit could drop to all levels. It would have obvious downsides but it would bring up a generation of pitchers that rely more location and movement. This way you would still see freaks and the best of best, just using a slightly different skill set. Not sure I like it, but maybe it has to be done.
What's that saying from Sandy Koufax? He didn't become a good pitcher from figuring out how to make batters miss. He became a good pitcher when he figured out how to make batters hit - specifically, for an easy out. I think pitchers and scouts are too hung up on strikeouts when they should be focusing on the easy out. I personally think the strikeout statistic is overrated. The goal is to get three outs in under nine pitches.
Ligaments can get stronger, but it's hard to say how exactly to train them. I can't cite the study in particular, but soccer players have been found to have much thicker ACL's than non-athletes. The problem with the UCL is that it's taking all the load of the throw and can't keep up with the ramping up to high workloads at the major league level. longer arms and higher velocity makes it worse. I don't think the answer is less throwing, I think it's more consistent workloads. Nolan Ryan built up his arm by throwing newspapers as a kid, and building it up to eventually having an incredibly long career. Problem is that high school kids are treated as being bulletproof and often think that they are. I overthrew when I was a senior in high school and if I had to guess, I had a UCL injury that went untreated. Inconsistent workload was my problem.
From the moment a kid steps onto a baseball field for the first time, parents/players should know arm injuries are on the table. The sport is built around throwing a ball in the most unnatural way possible. Combine that with: players not taking care of their arm until high school/college, "velocity epidemic," and banning sticky stuff all leads to an increased change of TJ. Blaming the pitch clock is *mostly* a scapegoat answer by MLBPA to get rid of something players don't want. Ironically, there is a correlation between pitchers attending Driveline in the offseason and arm injuries (but that's not a conversation they want to have).
I think the balls are a little bit of the problem too. Just squeeze a ball and then squeeze it a little more, and you'll feel the difference close to your elbow. But yeah the max pitching every pitch needs to be stopped.
lower the amount of pitchers on a team so starters have to last more innings. return to 4 starters rotations. Those are some ideas to force pitcher to take care of their arms
What about a large universal innings bonus? Let's say you hit 150 innings as a starting pitcher, you automatically get a million dollar bonus (paid for by the MLB and not the owners? idk). This would incentivize young players who haven't reached free agency yet to find new ways to reach those innings, which would require them to focus on location and pitch-mix. To incentivize the teams, you could offer a luxury tax discount if your "innings over 162/number of pitchers used in a season" is below a certain number
If league wide OPS hasnt changed with increase in Velo then the correlation could also be hitters are better and less velo.woild result in OPS increase
Hitters aren’t better. Contact is among the lowest ever. They just ‘adjusted’ to way F baseball and turn the game into home run derby. That was their counter to velo and spin
Crazy thought now but looking long term and really taking a step back. Speed limit. Make it 90 or 95, same as the wearhouse Blitzball rule. 90-95 is a redo, over 95 is a ball.
MLB: fans want less velo because the games are getting boring so we're going to make you speed up between pitches and make the ball harder to grip to force you to throw less hard. Players: I don't wanna. Also, my arm hurts now.
The more pitchers are coddled, the more they get hurt. It isn't about rest or pitch limits. It's about velo and spin. It's about Driveline and throwing weighted balls.
The increase in fine-tuned mechanics and analytics is what's stressing this type of injury. Every pitcher tunes every pitch in their arsenal to give maximum effectiveness. Seems to me like this strategy of maximizing your stuff via mechanical analysis is the problem. Every pitcher is hell bent on throwing the nastiest shit. Scouts demand multiple+offerings.
I’m not sure when pitchers started throwing at 100% max effort on every pitch. Probably about 20 years ago or so. Velo is king from the time these guys are in HS. Not a mystery.
Trev as someone who spent time working as a scout for PBR. The reason kids care about their velo at their showcase is because it’s the most important thing. More important than actually pitching well. We had velo requirements in order to post a kid on the pbr website. Even if the kid gave up a Buncha runs we would still post videos that make him look good because he throws hard and someone will sign him. On the flip side a kid can throw a perfect game but if he throws only 79 at 16 and we wouldn’t post them because it will actually hurt them. Colleges would see his velo without seeing him ever pitch and cross him off their list. The velo problem will never go away for kids until it isn’t the most important thing that scouts, colleges, and mlb teams look at.
What about spin rate? Is that accounted for at all?
Guys used to pitch 9 innings. Satchel pitches every other day. Maddox and finesse pitchers don’t seem to have the TJ problem.
Maybe accounting for spin rate will take the pressure off velo alone
You answered your own concern at the end there. Different skills will become more desirable as the league, scouts, and universities catch up.
@@ryanharber4512 at scouting events we would have a track man or something similar to track spin rate. But we wouldn’t have them at the tournaments. Colleges look at it but for example, it would be like a guy throws 88 and the college scout is trying to figure out if his stuff is d3 or d2 level.
@@nickfiscella9267 I don’t think it will until someone proves they can compete at an mlb level topping out at less than 88 in the 2020’s Which will never happen because they don’t make it that far. the d2 college I go to all the starters throw in the mid 90s.
@@nickfiscella9267 plus there are guys who already have the best stuff who also throw 100. U cant convince jacob degrom to stop throwing his 94 mph, 3000 rpm slider
it's a problem at all levels. i'm a junior in highschool and i had tommy john surgery 3 months ago because of heavy velocity training that wore down my arm. only gets worse the higher the level sadly
Damn bro, hope your recovery is going well!
Best of luck w your recovery man!
hope u have a good recovery
I knew something was coming but “more margarine for the pancakes” really got me
if you’re doing the ‘lose your DH’ rule, the DH should be replaced with the starting pitcher so it’s an actual disadvantage, and don’t just let them get pinch hit for, allow that only for injuries.
re MLB Pitcher injuries, the main point here is that velocity is the golden ticket to an MLB Prospect scouting report. scouts will always feel more comfortable selling a prospect if they have 'elite' fastball velocity. the trickle effect of this is the main cause of this MLB issue. until there is a philosophy shift in MLB organizations prioritizing availability as the best ability, there won't be a resolution.
It feels like hard throwing starters are turning into the running backs of the mlb. Heavy usage early in their careers, by the time they are 30 a lot of their arms are shot
I could not agree more. You have hit the anilin the head.
Jake calling Jimmy “Jom” reminds me of when I met the talking baseball crew at a Phillies game and accidentally called Jimmy “jommy.” So embarrassing😂
It's a bit of Catch-22. MLB teams don't want their star pitchers getting hurt, but so many teams are (as Trev pointed out) using velocity as a way to judge their potential. If a team wants fewer pitchers going under the knife, they should have fewer high-velo arms in their organization. And I think Trev is bang on, maybe high velocity isn't as effective in suppressing offense as many believe.
Keep the pitch clock rule in effect, raise the mound again, and forbid pitches from exceeding 90 mph (call it a ball).
They need to play fewer games, shorten the season. They're expecting dudes to throw 95+ from February preseason to October now. I don't think anyone's arm can hold up that long
I'm over v.lo. Bring back eephuses and knuckleballs.
Agreed
Bring back the screwball
Or at least bring back pitching styles where starters can go 9 innings regularly or else just do away with starting pitching altogether
@@gstlb Having pitchers going deep enough to call games again has been my dream for years. I used to love the hype around pitching matchups. Feels like we lost something with that going away.
If everyone got rid of their starters though, I would probably stop watching all together. The concept of an "Opener" is repulsive to me. Just feels like a way for teams to grind through and burn out undervalued talent before they hit their 6 years of MLB service time.
All scouts care about is velocity hence why all the injuries. Velo is the main issue
Greg Maddox over there laughing n blowing that 88 mph 2 seamer by dudes
Fastball velocity is the exit velocity equivalent for pitchers. It’s flashy, and if you throw it that hard you have a bigger margin for error, just the same as a really hard hit grounder might eat up an infielder. To take the message of lower velocity pitching to the younger generation, we need superstars who are lower velo pitchers, and that’s so much harder to promote when it’s NOT as exciting as the radar gun lighting up in triple digits. Even early in my Yankees watching days, Betances and Chapman making the tv score bug light up in literal fire with each fastball got me so hyped. We need to sensationalise DOTTED pitches. PAINTED, on the black. We need some way to make THAT as exciting as a 101mph fastball dead centre of the zone, and that’s HARD when umpires are much more impactful on the results of a pitcher’s well placed pitches, than the fast ones.
Bring on the robo umps please.
But Mr. Plouffe if the balls were the issue, what kind if ball are kids using in middle and high school? It's the emphasis on pitching velo fromm that tender age that if a 16 yr old kid doesn't hit the 85mph mark, he has no future as a pitcher.
i don’t know if you’re trolling or not, but he’s talking about the ball being an issue for major leaguers. actual MLB pitchers have said the same thing. and trev mentioned the emphasis on velocity for the kids, esp on baseball today. he talked about a lot of things being wrong so idk why you just picked out that one thing.
Sorry to sound as a throller but i didn't watch this ep live and i just reacted on the ball issue since kids have being getting the TJS as early as high school and college, so the ball is not totally the issue, but it was my baď, sorry to sound like a troll.
I think it’s funny that we’re talking about speed limits and stuff to de-incentivize throwing too hard, but isn’t the consequence of throwing too hard exactly what’s happening? Throw too hard and hurt your arm and then jeopardize your ability to throw going forward or like in Shane Bieber’s case jeopardize your free agency year, I don’t think there needs to be any other consequence, no one other than the pitchers themselves have any ability to force them to throw hard enough to hurt themselves.
I agree that we should do something for the kids though, I like no radar guns. Growing up I was always one of the hardest throwers in the leagues I played in, but there was only one time I was ever clocked and I didn’t even see the number. All that mattered to me while pitching was limiting hits and walks, I’d rather be able to keep playing baseball and throw a little less velocity than hit some arbitrary velo number and not be able to play.
Policing people’s velocities or setting velocity limits based on body types would make me check out of baseball. The answer is murky and multi-faceted, and it likely is rooted in changing how youth baseball works.
Also, getting rid of radar guns in non-pro settings would likely further benefit the wealthy as they would go to outside facilities for velocity-based training. Kids who can’t afford to go to fancy facilities or pay private coaches will be at a further disadvantage to be noticed if their velocities aren’t formally recognized by their high school or college. Limiting the craze on velocity for youth ball is a great idea, but it’s tricky to enforce across the board
Adding another couple points to my last comment. There are a lot of things that play into why kids get scouted based on velo. 1 the batters they’re facing likely are never a good indicator for the types of batters they want to be facing. 2 it’s way easier/faster to get the velo data to scouts than it is to get them all their in game performance data. 3 it’s like scouting a 7’ basketball player because “you can’t teach height” and much like you talked about Aroldis having the body to throw like that although we’ve figured out how to teach velo you can’t teach a body to be sustainable while throwing like that. We need to put a focus back on players listening to their bodies and knowing when they’re pushing too hard. Maybe an alternative to looking at velo for scouting young pitchers could be live pitching sessions against some higher level hitting (recently retired higher level ball players, minor leaguers, college hitters) that will give a better idea of pitching approach and mental toughness than just saying this dude can throw 96 at full effort with no regard for control. It takes more work and more people, but it would give you a better idea of how a pitcher can handle a higher skilled hitter. It’s like driveline where the focus is how well they attack at bats instead of velo and spin rate etc… and maybe that already exists, but it just doesn’t get the attention it should. Banning radar guns until pro ball would help put the focus on that.
Chasing velo is just so ridiculous because it’s such an arbitrary number. Jolly’s video on Freddy Peralta (I think that was the one) which talks about perceived velo and how even though he doesn’t throw 100 it looks like it’s way faster than it is and it’s effective shows exactly why chasing 100 for example is such a silly idea.
It’s actually insane to me how people can doubt the fact it’s the increase importance in velocity. People blaming the pitch clock are the exact people who didn’t want the pitch clock, they’re just reaching for reasons to get rid of it
Nailed it, brother
yup. it’s confirmation bias for them.
100 💯
HELLO AND WELCOME TO TALKIN’ BASEBALL
I feel like pitchers need to follow what Jordan hicks is doing. We know he can throw 100+ but he’s throttled down a little to sit around 96ish. Seems much more sustainable
As a royals fan this is teh best we’ve looked in a while and this team feels different
Jake said “Riley, Harris, and Olson” so fast, I was trying to figure out who Riley Harrison Olson was 😭
As a guy who watches football as my first sport and baseball second, this reminds me a lot of when the concussion movie was released. The solution ended up being teaching kids and, more importantly, coaches, how to teach kids to play football a safer way.
The concussion problem in football is not even close to being solved. Repeated head trauma is an integral part of the game, as long as football is played, CTE will continue to affect many of its participants.
Same with boxing, you can somewhat lower the dangers with less hard sparring for example but when it comes down to it, one unavoidable fact just cannot be worked around. Repeated head trauma is bad for your short and long term health.
Essentially the same thing with baseball. Throwing a baseball this hard will ruin your elbow. Just no way around that unfortunately.
@@Greenkeeper132 I don't think I ever said it was solved. I said the solution was to teach kids how to play the game right.
@@masonhiemstra2188 You said that was the solution to the concussion problem. What I'm telling you is that there's no way to play football that doesn't include head trauma and therefore CTE. You presented it like something that has been solved, but it hasn't and won't be solved. The core problem is unsolvable. There is no "safe" way to play football.
@Greenkeeper132 There is a safer way to play, and that's all that I said. I never said concussions would be fully gone from the game, just like torn UCL's will always be a part of baseball, but there is a way to make it SAFER not completely safe and void of all risk. Everyone who signs up to play a sport understands that there is a risk of injury.
@@masonhiemstra2188 You said "The solution ended up being". Even if that change has had any effect whatsoever, we won't know until years down the line. The "solution" of playing the game in a safer way is mostly make-believe. People want to play and watch football and so they tell themselves they're doing it in a responsible way now. There has been no solution and nothing so far that suggests the game is even relatively safer than it was before the publications of papers on CTE.
I was always told, pitching is like real estate.... location, location, location
I like the idea of a velocity maximum - even if not in the Major Leagues, at the youth level. I played in leagues growing up where kids under 14 weren't allowed to throw curveballs, etc since the idea was that their arms weren't developed yet. I don't know how much sense that makes, but having some amount of maximum makes a lot of sense to me.
Almost all pitching injuries happen because chasing velo and are one of 3 issues - and # of pitches not the issue
1) over throwing - chasing velo compounded by...
2) cascading conditioning needed... legs, shoulder, arm, elbow. If one isn't good the problem cascades as it goes from what should be stronger to weaker and critically...
3) many players not warmed up enough before trying to throw too hard - going zero to 100 on throwing.
This idea that the pitchclock is responsible for the increase in arm injuries is ludicrous.
I read someone say that the TJ rates have gone up so much because there's no break. There's school teams, travel teams, select teams, off-season training, etc. There's no recovery period.
wearing shorts in any weather as long as you have hoodies on top is a Cali guy thing for sure
I do this in Minnesota when it is negative temperatures out
And southern. Definitely GA/FL
The late Dr. Frank Jobe, for listeners that don't know who he was, he's the the orthoped that perform the first surgery on a pitcher elbow and that pitcher was Tommy John and the surgery started referred to as the TJS, well Dr. Jobe once stated that the elbow ligament fully matures up until the age of 26. So make your conclusion
Always throwing at max effort is part of the pitching injuries. Maddox talked about this. The pitch clock was implemented to get them to stop, and instead they're just trying to blow through it and getting hurt.
Highest OPS in the last 100 years is the year 2000 with an average OPS of .782
Sweet feeling, having picked up both Melendez and O’Neill this week in fantasy before listening to this!
They should legalize at least one sticky substance. Glassnow said it himself.
Baseball needs to change! Bring back the art of pitching.
Velocity, as Trev pointed out, does not stop hitters from hitting. All it does is cause injuries.
High of 55 is definitely shorts weather
“Get your Angels jokes in everyone” I died😂…I’m an Angels fan
Agree with everything Trevor said about the Pitcher Injury topic. I think tendon and ligament exercises do exist and are working Generally speaking but i'm far from a expert and i don't know how much they are used in Baseball.
The reason for so many injuries is TJ surgery. Pitchers used to know not to go all out constantly or their career would end. Now they go 100 percent all the time knowing they can get TJ when the arm goes out.
Ligaments absolutely get stronger, but not if you constantly abuse them. Pitching is a completely abnormal activity to do on a regular basis.
25 seconds to stop the guys who would take forever to pitch. But this is ridiculous. Some games the commercials are longer than the innings!!! Someone explain to me how that’s more fun to watch? Bryce Harper said it best “we just want our game back”
Hank Aaron: 3771 hits, 624 2B, 98 3B, 755 HR, most for a RH batter. Most total bases, all-time. Most RBI, all-time.
This man is UNDERRATED. And a class act. I know that's not what we're talking about, but as class an act as this game has ever seen.
Remember when the kiss of death for a pitcher was the rotator cuff? Never ever hear about the rotator cuff anymore. Why is that Trev?
What about a speed limit for the first 6 innings or for the starting pitcher, but no limit for relievers after 6th inning?
I'm a 12u coach an I preach accuracy over velocity because you can always build velocity accuracy is alot harder to achieve .
Players want throw harder, create more spin on the ball. It’s not the pitch clock let them bring back grip sauce
Is it pitch clock, velo, and the cheese?
Look at Bryce Elder as another example. He barely clears 90 on his 4-seamer, but any success he had, the reactions were always "I don't know how he does it" or "he's getting lucky." Maybe, just maybe, there's more to getting guys out than velo.
Except Elder was definitely getting lucky. All of his peripheral numbers showed it. Batters hit the ball well above league average exit velo against him, had above league average barrel rates against him, and had a FIP of almost 4.5 which shows his defense did most of the heavy lifting.
Velo isn't everything, but Bryce Elder's extremely lucky first half last year isn't the argument for that.
@@apacheman3131 I don't think you can say that so definitively. Two of your stats involved the league average, but think about what that means in a league that prioritizes swing and miss.
You're using a relative stat. You're comparing his exit velos to that of the broader league that's obsessed with no contact at all. In other words, maybe Elder's avg exit velo is just fine, and it's the league that's creating unrealistic, unsustainable exit velo numbers that end up getting used as the measuring stick. It's not Elder. It's the measuring stick.
Moreover, know what isn't captured in these peripherals? Availability. I'd rather have a guy who can consistently give me 180 innings with a 4 ERA than a guy who gives me 160 innings, a ton of K's, and 2 years before he blows out his elbow.
Plenty of examples of that over the years too. Maddux, Stroman, an Hendricks to name a few I can think of off the top of my head. All guys that barely throw/threw above 90 that have all had success in their careers.
If you can locate, sequence and tunnel really well you can still get big leaguers out.
@@Gnar_Doggkershaw lost his velocity years ago and look how effective he still is. but he does struggle with injuries, mainly back ones. he didn’t need surgery on his arm until his mid 30s (this past offseason)
There is also a problem where coaches and organizations get paid based on success. So these organizations don't necessarily have the players best interests on their minds because there is an endless supply of high velocity pitchers waiting for their shot. So given players desire to max out, and organizations encouraging (enabling) it, you can't stop it. There will need to be some significant data that demonstrates *something* where at a certain point velocity has diminishing returns, not including the injures.
Anyone know who makes the sweater Trevor is wearing?
Ligaments can only handle so much pressure before snapping. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the UCL can only handle 9 lbs of pressure, and a 90 MPH fastball puts an average of 11 lbs of pressure on the ucl. It's a velocity and mechanical issue, along with grip and the arm action of certain breaking pitches. I'd also like to add that when you artificially increase offense, you're going to cause pitchers to take risks and push themselves to the brink.
Baseball pitchers have become the new NFL running back- expendable. You better have a minor league system full of 'em because you are going to need them. Of course we could go back to teaching pitchers to win with location and pitch sequencing- see Greg Maddux- and not push EVERYONE to throw over 95. A pitcher with great mechanics and location can get by with 92. Oh, and having a few knuckleballers in your system wouldn't hurt.
I think increasing the amount of roster spots on teams to spread the load more could help with the pitching injuries
My arm hurts too
Can anyone tell me what song is playing when the boys are doing the league recaps
The idea of opening the strike zone has me thinking, wouldn't it be better to shrink it instead? that way it promotes more pin point accuracy since fast throwers have less control?
21:10 I'm pretty sure this would be cause a massive Streisand effect. Also when you look historically at league wide OPS why do you assume hitters have not gotten better too? The pitchers have definitely gotten better and now throw harder, why do you assume that hitters have not seen a general improvement as well over time? Only focusing on OPS trends and whether or not pitchers throw hard seems like a one dimensional analysis, especially when there's hitters to consider as well.
I've learned a fair amount about arm shoulder ligaments/tendons since I got really into rock climbing the last couple years, queue the memes, but its surprising how most docs don't have an a lot knowledge to draw from when figuring out what to about ligaments/tendon issues. We can repair tears after they occur, but when it comes to training and prevention it's the Wild West. If you have a tendonitis flair it's almost always rest and take ibuprofen, but sometimes my tendonitis flairs bc I'm resting. So many tiny tears can occur within the shoulder/elbow due to repetitive use weakening ligaments/tendons over time. It is s incredibly hard to tell what's sore from use and what is injured in these parts of the body. Not to mention figuring out load management is super subjective to the individual. The science just isn't where we need it to be.
I think all the stress goes through your ucl when pitching no matter what other physical traits you have. So these tall muscular dudes ultimately you can't make your ligament stronger
@@manager4409 you can strengthen your ligament, its just takes alot longer than muscle and I imagine the ucl is very difficult to isolate. And these guys are wearing it down every 5/6 day. There is a study
(Minimizing Injury and Maximizing Return to Play: Lessons from engineered ligaments" by Keith Baar") on light loading ligaments daily over time to increase their strength. This study was regarding knees ligaments, but some climbers have used this to create a finger training protocol which led to some pretty amazing results. It also led to a lot of debate on if it made them stronger or if it just led to their tendons being healthier. Sorry if I nerded out too much there.
When i left High school in 92 the magic number was 90mph. Scouts would say- if you hit 90 at the tryout, we'll draft you. Also, guys in the high 90s still get their tits ripped. Look at Kopech.
These players are the case study for what is going on, if you want to get into the why's behind the injuries study these pitchers, there could be so many factors as to why but how much everything comes into play who knows
I will suggest a simple but drastic little change that will crumble all the game's structure: bring down the balls and strikes count from 4-3 to 3-2 and get rid of the pitch clock and the radar please. Plus on a 2-1 count you can foul up to 5 times one additional foul you're out. That will reduce the # of pitches and the workload on every pitcher
Really sad that it’s becoming more of a problem with the younger players. I remember when I played, it was all about velo, no matter if you hit 4 batters a game or walked 6 batters. If you were one of the harder pitchers around you were looked at.
Look at a guy like Merrill Kelly. The guy isn’t throwing hard but is just getting better and better as time goes on. Control is still king but it’s easier to find a guy these days that throws 98 than finding a guy that can consistently hit the corners.
Maybe what MLB needs isn't faster pitching, but more variation in pitching. It's tough to adjust to 2019 Gerrit Cole one night and 2019 Zack Greinke the next, or Tim Wakefield and peak Craig Kimbrel in the same game.
the way jake says ligament as ligment is crazy
Maybe recruiting changes mindset on velocity. Instead of thinking velocity is a plus but maybe start thinking of it as a liability. Idk it’s a rough issue to tackle
Kelnic aint striking out alot, thats for sure. Must be a Seattle thing!
I live on the Oregon coast and wear shorts all year long. Rain or shine.
The research seems to show that throwing more pitches in the early year (move from seasonal to all year baseball) and kids throwing types of pitches too early are also factors in the big increase in injuries. Kids are trying to throw harder but it can't great for 8 year olds to be throwing curveballs given the amount of stress that puts on an arm. Regarding pitch clock, if they are rushing, then most likely it throws off the mechanics. That seems to be the case with Strider (or his ongoing poor mechanics at times)
It's obvious they need to shorten the number of games. They have a whole preseason so in February they're already throwing hard then 162 games into October. The human body can't take that
I wonder if there is a test that can be done to determine how strong a players ligaments are? Sort of like a bone density test? There have been studies on cadavers to determine how strong a UCL is, I wonder if this can be correlated to some kind of test on living tissue. Such as , this UCL handled 80 pounds before tearing and has a 'ligament density' of X. This players UCL also has a density of X, so we can expect his UCL to withstand 80 lbs of force. Something like that.
Do you think there is anything to the fact that young pitchers are being babied all the way up the ranks now as well? Maybe having young players throw lots of pitches actually strengthens the elbow rather than damages it? That along with new mechanics for added velo and spin rate.
It’s a tough issue no doubt. Obviously you can’t cap a speed limit in the majors cuz a huge part of the game is seeing pitchers deal their best stuff and this would just destroy baseballs watchability. I think the most obvious answer is having rules and limits for kids in little league in travel ball. It’s rough because u can’t monitor what a kid does on his own time and if he wanted to increase velo/ learn new pitches he could. I think there are rules that can be put into youth baseball such as no pitches that can damage the arm more like sliders, curveballs etc. also a velo limit could make sense. As far as majors the simple answer is just having pitchers pitch less. It sucks cuz everyone wants to see the studs on the mound as much as possible. But an appearances, innings, and pitch limits could be potential rules we see down the line in the future. Tommy John seems at least once seems inevitable for any high volume pitchers, but these rules seem reasonable to at least lower arm damage and younger ages and see pitchers not have to get Tommy John until later in their career. Idk. Just a brainstorm of ideas that could help
Maybe there is something to being built like a Defensive End like Aroldis Chapman in order to handle throwing 100+ mph consistently, or it could be because he's a reliever.
On board with most of everything said except Trev's comment about historical OPS. The reason OPS hasn't changed much is BECAUSE of pitchers throwing harder and getting better. If they didn't, while batters improved, then OPS would be near record high.
All you have to do is look at the batter stats against each MPH to get immediate proof...
And batters are struggling against those pitches DESPITE the fact that the accuracy on them tends to be lacking.
I have 2 takes on this, and they are both nearing "Old man yells at clouds" territory but I thino they hold some merit.
Look at the guys that had major success and avoided injuries, like Mark Buerhle, and diagnose what they did that took stress off of their elbow. With so much biomechanics data out there, someone is gonna find a middleground where you can have the break and pitching success while protecting the ligaments.
My other take is far more aggressive, but its worth discussing. You can physically pitch without a UCL, guys did it historically... what if you took guys with torn UCL's and found ways to effectively pitch without it. Can't tear what's already torn.
The Tigers started off hot, but I am still VERY worried about this team. Their offense is nonexistent and this has been the case for years. Their pitching might keep them competitive, but I expect lots of low scoring close games.
I wear shorts down to around 0 degrees, but thats because I live in the mountains of Colorado and cold is all we know 🙁
Guys throwing 110 percent at all times for velocity and then being rushed with pitch clock. Old school pitchers even Verlander in his career found the zone first couple innings and threw harder as the game went on. Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens those types of pitchers threw hard last few innings of start. I agree with Trev
For my O's, we're struggling to hit. But what do we have in spades down the organization? Hitting. So not currently worried. Would prefer to see Stowers, Holiday and Mayo/Norby over Hays, Mateo and Kemp though
Hey guys I'm a DPT (doctor of physical therapy) at Steadman-Hawkins clinic in Denver. We see a lot of athletes, our shoulder/elbow surgeon is the surgeon for the Rockies. I'd love to chime in if you're lookin for a pro.
Conversations like this always intrigue me because it reminds me of game theory, not in the mathematical sense but in video game sense. I think the word is heuristics for the study of how to win these “game” settings the most optimally. We have created a set of rules on how to win the game, so strategies develop to win the game. The meta game is looking how these strategies compare to each other. The cycle usually starts with the meta game developing, we have to start somewhere, so first the rules set the stage. These strategies are either focused on maximizing Offense or defense or in this case batters (runs scored) or pitching/fielding(run prevention). As the MLB are the Game Master, determining what rules consist the game. Changing them as needed to try to balance the strategies ensuring there is sufficient counter play and so that one strategy is not far superior to rest.
However the MLB (and to an extent all Game Masters) suck as this because for a strategy to be effective and worthwhile over being average at everything it has to be inherently unfair. The players never usually realize this at first as they play within the confines of the rules ever pushing on the edge.
For example, batters dominated under hand pitching so then pitchers started throwing overhand. But sometimes the rules need to be changed because the meta has been solved under its current conditions such as in the case of decreasing the number of balls for a walk from 6 to 5 to 4. As pitching out competed batting, exploiting that weakness in the rule set.
However these is a weird case where a strategy is being pushed to the limits against all logic. And that’s what Plouffe’s comment “Why hasn’t OPS gone down” was a perfect analysis of the baseball meta game. We are pushing a run prevention strategy beyond its value. There is a point where throwing harder does not have the same value as we think we do from a non-meta perspective. And once the greater expanse of baseball decision makers realize that the hopefully the focus on Velo will be toned down. If not I could see MLB stepping in with a rule change and I do not envy the person who has to think of an elegant solution to this problem
They touched on this idea, but I think it’s maybe feasible.
If a pitch in MLB is thrown faster than a predefined limit, (95? 92?) it’s an automatic ball.
The limit could drop to all levels.
It would have obvious downsides but it would bring up a generation of pitchers that rely more location and movement. This way you would still see freaks and the best of best, just using a slightly different skill set.
Not sure I like it, but maybe it has to be done.
Yes, your ligaments and tendons do get stronger with training, it’s just not at the same rate as your muscles
talkin baseball is so good
This issue long predates pitch clock. Pitch clock doesn't help.
What's that saying from Sandy Koufax? He didn't become a good pitcher from figuring out how to make batters miss. He became a good pitcher when he figured out how to make batters hit - specifically, for an easy out. I think pitchers and scouts are too hung up on strikeouts when they should be focusing on the easy out. I personally think the strikeout statistic is overrated. The goal is to get three outs in under nine pitches.
Ligaments can get stronger, but it's hard to say how exactly to train them. I can't cite the study in particular, but soccer players have been found to have much thicker ACL's than non-athletes. The problem with the UCL is that it's taking all the load of the throw and can't keep up with the ramping up to high workloads at the major league level. longer arms and higher velocity makes it worse. I don't think the answer is less throwing, I think it's more consistent workloads. Nolan Ryan built up his arm by throwing newspapers as a kid, and building it up to eventually having an incredibly long career. Problem is that high school kids are treated as being bulletproof and often think that they are. I overthrew when I was a senior in high school and if I had to guess, I had a UCL injury that went untreated. Inconsistent workload was my problem.
Thank you, pitch count!
From the moment a kid steps onto a baseball field for the first time, parents/players should know arm injuries are on the table. The sport is built around throwing a ball in the most unnatural way possible. Combine that with: players not taking care of their arm until high school/college, "velocity epidemic," and banning sticky stuff all leads to an increased change of TJ.
Blaming the pitch clock is *mostly* a scapegoat answer by MLBPA to get rid of something players don't want.
Ironically, there is a correlation between pitchers attending Driveline in the offseason and arm injuries (but that's not a conversation they want to have).
I think the balls are a little bit of the problem too. Just squeeze a ball and then squeeze it a little more, and you'll feel the difference close to your elbow. But yeah the max pitching every pitch needs to be stopped.
lower the amount of pitchers on a team so starters have to last more innings. return to 4 starters rotations. Those are some ideas to force pitcher to take care of their arms
What about a large universal innings bonus?
Let's say you hit 150 innings as a starting pitcher, you automatically get a million dollar bonus (paid for by the MLB and not the owners? idk). This would incentivize young players who haven't reached free agency yet to find new ways to reach those innings, which would require them to focus on location and pitch-mix.
To incentivize the teams, you could offer a luxury tax discount if your "innings over 162/number of pitchers used in a season" is below a certain number
It was the removal of the sticky baseballs.
If league wide OPS hasnt changed with increase in Velo then the correlation could also be hitters are better and less velo.woild result in OPS increase
Hitters aren’t better. Contact is among the lowest ever. They just ‘adjusted’ to way F baseball and turn the game into home run derby. That was their counter to velo and spin
Shout out Jackson Merrill with his first career 4 hit day
Crazy thought now but looking long term and really taking a step back.
Speed limit.
Make it 90 or 95, same as the wearhouse Blitzball rule. 90-95 is a redo, over 95 is a ball.
I now made it to the part where Jake mentions this same thing.....
New rule: Any pitch over 95mph is called a ball.
MLB: fans want less velo because the games are getting boring so we're going to make you speed up between pitches and make the ball harder to grip to force you to throw less hard.
Players: I don't wanna. Also, my arm hurts now.
Class ep lads!
The more pitchers are coddled, the more they get hurt. It isn't about rest or pitch limits. It's about velo and spin. It's about Driveline and throwing weighted balls.
Bingo
The increase in fine-tuned mechanics and analytics is what's stressing this type of injury.
Every pitcher tunes every pitch in their arsenal to give maximum effectiveness.
Seems to me like this strategy of maximizing your stuff via mechanical analysis is the problem.
Every pitcher is hell bent on throwing the nastiest shit. Scouts demand multiple+offerings.
I’m not sure when pitchers started throwing at 100% max effort on every pitch. Probably about 20 years ago or so. Velo is king from the time these guys are in HS. Not a mystery.