i thing it should be 75/155 = 0.48 bec there is a small mistake by Total green should be 33 not 23, but stil great video i really like it, thx master Bazett for the video :)
@@shoaibhassan8918 0.75 is not correct. Just because it is NOT orange does not increase propability it is coming from HKP factory that much. Correct answer is 0.48 as mentioned.
To find the exact probability of being from HKP given the M&M is orange from your data, you could have simply just taken: 0.25/2 as the probability of being from HKP and being orange (0.205 + 0.25)/2 as the probability of getting orange Divide them and you get (0.25/2)/(0.205 + 0.25/2) = 0.25/(0.205 + 0.25) = 0.25/0.455 After putting that through a calculator, I get 0.549450 recurring etc etc which is approximately 55% (rounded up) Therefore, about 55% of the orange M&Ms come from Hackettstown. Also, I really enjoy your video and your animated explanation :D Looking forward to more AMAZING videos!
I like his way of teaching stats, thanks for explaining this stuff! You really helped a lot of us!(especially me, my exam's today) Edit: PS, you got a new sub!
I agree: Total of bottom row is 190 (not 200) which will change some probability calculations. But I enjoyed the chance to work it along with you and find your training very heuristic. THX!
You are brilliant! Would you please make more vedios on conditional , and, or probabilities. I hated stat and prob , but because of the way you explain so clear and relatable this subject is starting to make sense now. Thank you for your time!!
@@DrTrefor thats true the answer wont be affected. but my point is we cant just scratch away the column for orange. in the probablity calculation we have to take it as complement of orange, which are all other colours
In this video I explain what conditional probabilities are and I show how to calculate them in Excel and how to interpret them, using Solver to implicitly apply Bayes' theorem. Though in spanish, subtitles in english are available: ua-cam.com/video/rxHd7td6Xo0/v-deo.html.
Can you use this trick if you have more variables . A(orange,blue) B(gummibears,candybars,redM&M) C(the probability that you like the candy bag given A,B)
For the Not orange task why did we not do it this way: 12+13+13+25+12=75 /100 ( why did you not divide yours by 100) 25+27+23+45+25=155/200 ( why did you not divide yours by 200) Therefore 75/100 × 200/155 = 0.96
The total for the green column should have been 33 and not 23. If corrected Dr. Trefor would have gotten (12+13+13+25+12=75 ) / (25+27+33+45+25=155 ) =75/155 =0,4839 Intersect / Total
I cant understand how everyone is praising you when you missed up the most simple calculations. Sent me down a spiral. Nevertheless, thanks for the video.
Thanks for such great video. 08:41 (ua-cam.com/video/nz-ADHZrYxk/v-deo.html) why we divide by 155 both sides not 200 what will be the sample space in this example
Hi Soumya, I believe you can't apply Bernoulli distribution on this one, since we are dealing with multi factors (colors, locations). That's my understanding.
yes... its almost as if he has prior videos about this subject and it would be ridiculous to repeat and prove everything that he's already done in every single episode...
@kapilan sakthivel Yes, which would explain why no reference to where this critical expression was derived. Very easy to see visually in a Venn (5 seconds max?), but I'm sure many will take it as read.
i thing it should be 75/155 = 0.48 bec there is a small mistake by Total green should be 33 not 23, but stil great video i really like it, thx master Bazett for the video :)
i think, it should be (75/200)/(100/200) = 0.75
thanks for this, almost felt like my math was off.
thank you for clearing it up, i was going insane with calculator
@@shoaibhassan8918 0.75 is not correct. Just because it is NOT orange does not increase propability it is coming from HKP factory that much. Correct answer is 0.48 as mentioned.
The green total should be 33 not 23. 20 + 13 = 33. Then we would have 75/155 = 0.48. The video and explanation are both great.
Such clear and thoughtful explanations for this. Who would have thought that a multi-colored M&M grid would be such a resource!!!!
The most interesting and funny way to explain conditional probability ever!!
No more M&Ms for you. Just kidding. We appreciate the videos. Thanks a lot.
Very nice explanation! But the column green should equal to 33.:)
Jiahua Chen we would think🤔
lol and good save by the way😉
oh true, thank you!!
To find the exact probability of being from HKP given the M&M is orange from your data, you could have simply just taken:
0.25/2 as the probability of being from HKP and being orange
(0.205 + 0.25)/2 as the probability of getting orange
Divide them and you get
(0.25/2)/(0.205 + 0.25/2)
= 0.25/(0.205 + 0.25)
= 0.25/0.455
After putting that through a calculator, I get 0.549450 recurring etc etc which is approximately 55% (rounded up)
Therefore, about 55% of the orange M&Ms come from Hackettstown.
Also, I really enjoy your video and your animated explanation :D Looking forward to more AMAZING videos!
An incredibly well laid out video. You've gained a loyal subscriber!
I like his way of teaching stats, thanks for explaining this stuff! You really helped a lot of us!(especially me, my exam's today)
Edit: PS, you got a new sub!
I can't believe it can be this good
Ending was awesome.
this is easily the most underrated educational video :|
I agree: Total of bottom row is 190 (not 200) which will change some probability calculations. But I enjoyed the chance to work it along with you and find your training very heuristic. THX!
You are brilliant! Would you please make more vedios on conditional , and, or probabilities. I hated stat and prob , but because of the way you explain so clear and relatable this subject is starting to make sense now. Thank you for your time!!
Brilliant explanation Prof. Trefor
great sir,,, cleared my concepts of conditional probability .. thanks a lot for this amazing video
It is well explanatory I love it❤
makes learning fun and easy for everyone, Great 👍
8:43 - (12+13+13+25+12)/(25+27+23+45+25) can be written as
= P(HKP given Not Orange)/P(Not Orange)
= (155/45)/(155/25)
= 0.56?
Very nice explanation..Enjoyed thoroughly. Thanks.
Thank you Trefor you rock
Nice edit to fit where you are pointing
should the numerator and denominator both in the last example ( not orange) be divided by 200 only. please explain sir
@@DrTrefor thats true the answer wont be affected. but my point is we cant just scratch away the column for orange. in the probablity calculation we have to take it as complement of orange, which are all other colours
Thank you. We enjoyed this. Hope the toffee company gives you two pakets at least for this
Do we need to go to Hackettstown now?
In this video I explain what conditional probabilities are and I show how to calculate them in Excel and how to interpret them, using Solver to implicitly apply Bayes' theorem. Though in spanish, subtitles in english are available: ua-cam.com/video/rxHd7td6Xo0/v-deo.html.
Wouldn’t it be 25/200 times 100/200 because it’s and and and means multiplying the two individual probabilities, over 100/200?
I’m so confused
Can you use this trick if you have more variables .
A(orange,blue)
B(gummibears,candybars,redM&M)
C(the probability that you like the candy bag given A,B)
Thanks, that was helpful.
Thanks for such a great content. From Quetta, Balochistan, Pakistan.
You do know that one of the 'rules' of internet safety is to NOT give your location? Just looking out for you.
Plz make more videos and you are better than my teacher
if orange is canceled, it doesn't mean that p(not orange)= segma P(others)/ 155. The total is still 200.
Didn't know M&M's colours taste different.
please male applied statistic veideos...
thank you sir
For the Not orange task why did we not do it this way:
12+13+13+25+12=75 /100 ( why did you not divide yours by 100)
25+27+23+45+25=155/200 ( why did you not divide yours by 200)
Therefore 75/100 × 200/155 = 0.96
The total for the green column should have been 33 and not 23. If corrected Dr. Trefor would have gotten (12+13+13+25+12=75 ) / (25+27+33+45+25=155 )
=75/155
=0,4839
Intersect / Total
You are the best
Trefor, love the way you explain things. Greetings from Sao Paulo, Brazil!
"Data that I've found online"
I bet he collected the data himself
At the very end you said the probability of orange in your bag was 4/14 (ie 2/7), wouldn't this be 4/18 (ie 2/9) because there were 18 in total?
I thought the same
isnt it faster to just subtract orange from the total instead of just adding all the columns?
Get 100k subs soon
Going to happen soon for sure!
@@DrTrefor wish u
I cant understand how everyone is praising you when you missed up the most simple calculations. Sent me down a spiral. Nevertheless, thanks for the video.
Thanks for such great video.
08:41 (ua-cam.com/video/nz-ADHZrYxk/v-deo.html)
why we divide by 155 both sides not 200
what will be the sample space in this example
yes, we should be dividing by 200.
This would be right if most of the production ie 75% hapeens in cleveland.
A more realistic assumption or analysis should be that the market shares of the two cities are different not equal.
in the dinominator 155 or 145
Thanks for amazin lecture, but the third row adds up to 190 and not 200 :)
P(Entering Emeregency room|Diabetes after eating to much M&M) = ?
if you're wondering why your answer is wrong, then look at the 'Green' column. Here, 20 + 13 should equal to 33 but he mistakenly wrote 23. Good Luck!
48.39 percent ??
Why can the last answer not be 1-0.56=0.44?
Because not orange = 1-P(orange).
Hi Soumya, I believe you can't apply Bernoulli distribution on this one, since we are dealing with multi factors (colors, locations). That's my understanding.
this would come down to a the mass of people balanced to not being color blind🤔 they all taste the same😂
There are several errors made here. It has to be 25/100 from HKP
Ye
P(not orange/ hkp) = p(not orange intersection Hkp )/ p( Hkp)
= 12+13+13+25+12/ 12+13+13+25 +12
is my understanding correct ?
The formula at 4:16 seems to have come out of thin air with no explanation.
yes... its almost as if he has prior videos about this subject and it would be ridiculous to repeat and prove everything that he's already done in every single episode...
@kapilan sakthivel Yes, which would explain why no reference to where this critical expression was derived. Very easy to see visually in a Venn (5 seconds max?), but I'm sure many will take it as read.
Time to dissect boxes😉
Your bottom line total is 190.
🤔does play 001) make every
other color except orange😏
I'm not calling them racists🤔
not yet atleast😂.
Q Tē huh
48.39 percent ??