154. Fiat History with Niall Ferguson
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- Опубліковано 6 лют 2023
- Description: Eminent historian Niall Ferguson joins us to discuss the history of fiat money, its relation to war, its development over the past century and the prospects for bitcoin. Why did Britain join World War I, and was it a wise choice? How eager were the British to join war? We debate whether it was the gold standard, or the suspension of the gold standard, that prevented recovery post-WWI and laid the foundation for World War II. And we discuss Professor Ferguson's views of bitcoin and its future prospects.
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Niall Ferguson: www.niallferguson.com/
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saifedean.com/thebitcoinstandard
Saifedean’s second book, The Fiat Standard:
saifedean.com/thefiatstandard
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My grandfather lost all his gold, which the Austrian government took from him and gave him paper currency (Schilling) which quickly devalued and was lost. It’s a lesson which my father always reminded me of.
Niall made a great point. I will start DCAing into 16th century houses. 100 euros every Friday no matter what.
And don't forget that you can always just take them with you should you need to leave in a hurry, say, due to war and the likes.
Really brilliant!
Yea, everybody in the UK has a few 16th Century Tudor houses in their portfolio (Not financial sdvice). 🙄
He gave reasons why you shouldn’t buy 16 century homes even though on paper they may have some appeal
Its clear he has not done his homework on the topic of bitcoin.
Saife did the reading , Niall did not, only one person wanted to learn something new here.
absolutely fantastic content....... good to see that Saif doesn't just invite nodding heads on to the show.......
Amazing how little views and likes Saif gets on youtube. So much value. My favorite channel. Clearly shadow banned. Time will show this genius channel. Props
Ahh so everyone should be a trained financial advisor to maintain their purchasing power, got it.
Financial literacy and basics of investing (distinct from speculating) can be learned by anyone. You don't need to be a professional advisor nor need to earn a bachelors degree. Most advisors do not have legitimate knowledge and university doesn't prepare you for anything practical in the field. You do however have to sift through a lot of bullshit as the field attracts charlatans and appeals to people's fantasy of becoming rich quick.
Great conversation . We, as bitcoiners, are VERY early.
I don't know Niall's work but after hearing Saife's praising couldn't help to feel a bit disappointed by some of his arguments or depth in perspective. For example, on the opinion over Bitcoin, Niall picks it up from the perspective of technological developments that is making money change from physical to digital and, as if someone is going to win this competition. Money is already digital and that is not important. What is important is that technology (internet's maturation, SHA-256, etc.. and Satoshi's genius) allowed for the creation of something truly revolutionary, a money that can't be controlled and inflated and that can be easily used by everyone on the planet.
Niall Ferguson haven’t discussed much about bitcoin, but in his latest book “ascent of Money” there’s a chapter with title “Silver to Ethereum”.
"That's a great argument to invest in real-estate" yes and then go through the hassle and side job or renting, insurance, maintenance, and property tax. The whole point is to store your money, not start a side business.
Good shit!!😂😂😂 double E
Early & Education.
Very instructive talk. Despite being a Bitcoin maxi, I really appreciate hearing different opinions from smart people like Niall.
Thanks Saifedean. Great content you never disappoint
Not even once? 🤔
Would be interesting to have a more formal debate about the moentary history of the past few hundred years. Have Saif pick 2 others and Nial also pick 2 others. I'd tune in for that in a heartbeat
Saif is a true educator, thanks to this pure signal guy, after following him for 5 years even I am smarter than Niel Ferg, haha. Unbelieveable!
Very interesting discussion, love hearing someone who challenges the inevitability of Bitcoin. I believe it is inevitable, but like to challenge my conviction to be sure I’m correct. Naill has some blind spots with regard to the lightening network and it’s efficiency in worldwide remittance. Thank you for putting out this content.
Brilliant conversation!
What a disappointment. Didn't realize how much of a mainstream historian he was. Thanks Saifedean, you did really great. It is always so depressing to see people insisting on their views without even knowing or studying the other views, or let alone other academic disciplines. The same is true for economics. The Austrians are always perfectly aware of the arguments and flaws of the economic alchemists, the alchemists, by contrast, never dive into other views. When I read Picetty's "Capital in the 21st century" I couldn't finde ONE reference to Menger, Böhm-Bawerk or Mises, all of which laid out the fundamentals of capital.
Not once did he mention technology or why it deflationary. This kind of framework and thinking will eventually fade away.
As the new generation rise up. New thoughts, and ways of life will be implemented.
It up to all, who believed in #prosperity, #hope, #abundance. To educate themselves, spouse, family members, & community about #bitcoin.
Don’t be selfish! At the end of the day, this is the only life we got. Build the world you want your children’s to live in.
Used examples in history to avoid total destruction.
I disagree. This is what a respectful debate between two differing opinions is supposed to look like.
@@annesuekocoyle1956 This was not my point. What I complain about is that they are all clueless.
Would be great to do a post-mortem on this episode. Seems like Nial has some significant blindspots and gaps in his knowledge. And a little too certain about some parts of the stories he spins.
Also quite a few times i saw him smuggling in as if it were uncontestable fact some pretty dubious perspectives.
Also was pretty astonished to hear him argue against the desirability of the possibility for there existing a safe way to save there near the end of the episode. Wow.
A wise old Asian man once told me “a Boomer cannot change his own stripes”. Not even worth wasting energy arguing.
Also the irony of him asserting that “one should NEVER be a fundamentalist about anything”, only to then argue that his historical perspective is the uncontested truth.
@@johncoltrane7017 Yes. I found that whole line really annoying and it seemed like he didn't even want to engage with the viewpoint seriously. The guy must know the way bitcoiners mean that. Namely that money is such a fundamental thing that influences so many other things that if there is a problem THERE it will ripple through. If you're gonna try to fix problems then try to find the root problem which if you solve THAT one alot of other ones disappear because they were manifestations of the root problem. Not so crazy to think problems in the money might be one of these. Money literally gives the power to direct human action on mass scale. It can shift the way society directs its resources. Just like many diseases may be the problem of a species not eating their natural diet. If you're feeding a lion rice, beans and sugary chocolate it'll get a lot of diseases. It isnt "fundamentalist" to suggest that fixing the diet may get rid of most or all of these diseases. It simply makes sense and is worth trying. Similarly if the water or the air is poisoned. All problems aren't created equal. All fixes won't do as much as any other. It is fundamentalist in a weird way to think that this cannot be the case, that it can never be the case that one cause is responsible for the vast majority of the problems in some area.
This guy's goal to me did not seem like it was search for truth. I did not get good vibes from this guy at all in terms of good faith.
Funny how Niall thinks he can understand history just by looking at it without understanding underlying laws.
Or economics
I also get the sense his reading and understanding is pretty narrow and that he doesn't know just how narrow it is. Would love for Saif to recommend him some books, or if he has read them to discuss them
Funny?
Legislation?
Niall Keynes
Awesome interview. It sounds like he has bought into the notion that we need inflationary money and things should produce yield (definite shitcoiner mentality :-) ). Was waiting for the Lightning Network to come up with the payment discussion. I love his comment that Agreement is Overrated!
His conviction is rooted in his 20th century education. Outside of his breakdown of history, he is saying a whole lot of nothing. He centered the majority of his dialog on price in a high time preference manner with little focus on purchasing power over time. The simple things will confound the wise.
This was a really interesting interview. Thanks for sharing this with us. Much respect.
Professor is 100% correctly diversification!!
great debate and discussion 👍
The Great Depression was not a consequence of World War II. It was a consequence of the U.S. Government and especially the Fed turning a rather normal market decline into a Depression. Former Fed President, Ben Bernake has written about this in some detail.
Interresting interview - glad to see that the guests sometimes aren't all on-board with Bitcoin and its inevitability. However I think it is astounding that Niall doesn't realize that he falls into his own definition when he says that "he isn't a fundamentalist on anything... because when you dive into a subject it becomes multifaceted and complex".
It sure does, but that doesn't mean that there is no such thing as "reality" - especially regarding engineered systems!
Many people might attribute "bad luck" to the fact that their car broke down - but from a mechanics perspective the fault, and thus the reason for the breakdown is searchable and findable. If you know how a car works, you know how to maintain it for optimal performance, and how to avoid most, if not all breakdowns.
The same goes for economics - if you look underneath the hood, you'll see a bunch of stuff happening, and you'll get a better picture of what is going on.
Niall for some reason refuses to even entertain the idea of looking further into the mechanism of economics - and acts all "cautious" about entertaining Saifedeans inputs. However he still manages to conclude that the current system works fine because of the historic outputs of the system... compared to what exactly?
That's like saying, that a car that only runs on two out of four cylinders is great, because the car eventually got to the destination - you are not acknowledging that the car could have been running on all four cylinders, and thus gotten to where it was going far more effective and reliably.
I think his logic is flawed in that regard - but nonetheless an interresting conversation - thanks Saifedean!
Not gonna go up this year. BTC up 45% this year lol. Niall NGMI
16th century houses in England as an inflation hedge? How do you buy $10, $100, $1000, or even $10k worth of that genius?!
Plus there’s the occasional fire risk, even at Windsor Castle. If you’re not a Royal, insurance is futile on a 500 year old irreplaceable house if it burns down.
Is it me or is btc up 40% already this year!?!
1:14:58 "I don't think Bitcoin is going to go up in price this year".
Famous last words 😂
The video was recorded in the second week of 2023. Bitcoin's price in USD went up approx 155% in 2023 😂.
Him practically bullying Saife and saying "that's not even debatable." Yeah, he's a bit arrogant.
Wow, we are so early - stack sats
disappearance of cash - interesting
Especially seeing in my country there is a popular initiative to have cash anchored to the constitution - i.e. not to be possible to remove it...
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It hasn’t been easy trying to invest as a newbie with few knowledge. I’m trying to create a new stream of passive income. How can i reach out to her? she could be of great help
@ROSEGARDNERBIS
dude doent know about the lightening network or any developments on layer 2 protocols he should have been called out on it adoption in Nigeria and other countries needs to read check your financial privilege Alex Gladstein other than that his historical analysis was enlightening
Is the Coinbits exchange good and reliable in Australia? Also, are these books and info therein, up-to-date? This tech is changing very rapidly.
Eminent.
Saife = Signal, Niall = Noise.
Once Germany invaded Belgium i feel British involvement was assured. However it is possible the British assistance may have arrived too late, which would of left Britain in a very difficult situation, which mirrors the situation they found themselves in 1795.
The views on Bitcoin were largely balanced. A little western leaning, perhaps unaware of Lightning but that isn't determinable... But the diatribe by Saif straight after that was far from convincing.
Anyone slating Niall for being uninformed needs to take a breath and come out of the bubble for a month or two so as to reassess bitcoin with fresh eyes.
Canada had all Britain's gold in WW 2: Operation Fish.
Ferguson's understanding of money is too rudimentary to really get the points Saifedeen is making.
Did he really make the claim that inflation was below the 2% target and when inflation went up Bitcoin fell in price, therefore Bitcoin isnt a hedge? Did I hear that correctly??
It's surreal to hear someone so highly educated on money not understand bitcoin to such a degree.
The older I get, the only thing I’m 100% confident of is that it’s a futile effort to try & change a Boomer’s opinion. They argue from their own egos , not the validity of what’s being argued. If you get them cornered, they’ll just resort to their social status / prestige as why they are right.
I wonder when this was recordeded. Ferguson says he expects no price rise for BTC this year, but also is referring to the California storms as contemporary.. could have been recorded in January before fh price rise from 16k to 22k
second week of January. Niall already rekt :P
Dunning Krugerisms
I'm about 98% in Bitcoin 😂. Freedom is ❤
Bretton Woods was not a gold standard? Wrong! Britain did not have a gold standard, that is why Britain suffered comparatively.
Niall kept referring to the Bitcoin’s peak as being 2020. Clearly he’s talking out of his rear-end, even casual bitcoiners know the peak was November 2021… weak…
How do you say WW1 was a central banker war without saying it was a central banker war in 107 minutes?
Maybe it wasn’t worth mentioning?
British participation in World War I may have been 'contingent', but if they had not declared war on Germany in 1914. it would have had to fight the Germans a few years later and without allies. Germany in World War I was not the Germany of World War II, but the brutalities of the German Army were not insignificant.
Every one in comments is saying this man and this guy, The most Known Financial Historian appeared like tom dk and harry on your channel.
Lol😂
wuf, so well read, so completly clueless about the deeper issues.
You bring up Rothschild and exonerate him right off the bat🙂
Sets my tin foil hat tingling lol
"It will never be as important as gold" LOL!
1:28:18 "if there were some magical asset that you could just save and put aside with 100% confidence that it would generate a real return of let's just say 5%, then there would be a tremendous rush to buy that asset. So you would almost certainly find that for a period the returns went sky high because it would be too easy. And I don't think life can be that easy"
😂🤣
Agreement is overrated.
TMI
For a guy who rails against fundamentalists, Niall really is fundamentally against fundamentalists. Crypto ice age? Utter nonsense.
Niall was proven completely wrong about bitcoins price------about 71,000 dollars today
Makes sense he lives in California. Prob not on the coast tho
you dont need to consciously asset allocate. You are asset allocating by not even asset allocating.
Niall quickly moved from the topic of (inevitable) future adoption by central banks, simply stating it hasn't happened yet. El Salvador doesn't even come up?
Bukele is a dictator who claims to support Bitcoin for no other reason that it helps him appear cutting edge and free market. You only need to look at the guy for one second to know he’s a c*nt.
Because El Salvador is a failed state?
1870THE
CORPORATE
BEGINNING
Niall has a very 21st century and British perspective! Germany would have won WW1 fairly easily and dominated the continent starting in 2016 Kaiser then doubles High Seas Fleet nd looks askance at Britain and empire! Germany was ahead technologically even in 1914. Asquith was correct that Germany could not be allowed to win that war!
You wrote starting In 2016?
If Germany won the war against Russia and France it would turn against UK as the next step. This is why they built naval to beat UK control of the seas. Germany would turn against UK empire. Yet these kinds of revisionist positions (e legitimate if based on primary historical sources) were fashionable in 2014.
It’s not that they would have turned against the UK, it’s that Germany was inevitably going to be the next global superpower before WW1 & the British Empire was on its way towards collapse. I cant blame the British for being opposed to a German run world. If I’m honest, I do like Germans individually but a German run world would have been a nightmare. Southern Europe today is falling so far behind due to German mercantilism & that’s just one continent, imagine them controlling half of Asia too?
As a society they have this crazy trait where they get extreme tunnel vision about how they understand themselves & how the world doesn’t find that appealing. Then they reach a point where they cannot extricate themselves from a situation without kind of going insane as a society. It’s one of these peculiarities that a radically platonic while being highly anti-Catholic culture (except Bavaria) emerged in the middle of Europe.
I liked all his answers except for “saving should be difficult” which makes no sense at all. But what could I expect… Niall is a pro-establishment guy. He is a Hoover Institution fellow. If you listen to him on their show Good Fellows, he is very pro-establishment.
"You wouldn't want to be 100% in Bitcoin" lol
So his advice is to invest in 16th century British housing? 🤦♂️
Great debate. Saife normally destroys people so good to see someone with the knowledge and eloquence to do battle. Personally I agree with Niall about convenience, privacy and therefore Bitcoin being marginalised and has made me question my conviction and weighting,
Niall is incredibly smug. He somehow completely misses the point about whether we _should_ have to invest instead of being able to just save without losing purchasing power
Ah, yes a system that bakes in the value of your work forever to be passed down from generation to generation without any loss. Sounds like … an aristocracy.
I want my central bank to own gold. Not shitty US Treasuries.
This guest is a wannabe elitist, thinking bitcoin adoption is dependent upon how many millionaires allocate or have a bitcoin position in their portfolio. This guy is the opposite to what & who bitcoin is for. Has he even read the white paper? How narrowminded of him to believe gold used as money began in England & after being corrected he then goes onto argue semantics about there being a difference between a gold standard & gold being used as money. I’m aware this author is not saifedean’s hero by any means however the expression comes to mind, “never meet your heroes”. For all the history the guest knows he appears to lack foresight, at least regarding bitcoin
Niall thinks your are going to back to the same pre war gold standard? lol.
The confidante ignorance infuriates me.
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what a useless interview. Saifedean Ammous is great. Niall Ferguson is high time preference and short sighted. this interview was borderline useless.
He’s an old boomer
©NOW CRYPTO HAS BECOME DOMINANT, PLEASE HOW CAN I MAKE A PROFITABLE INVESTMENT?
@Mark May
Please how can I get in contact with Mrs Taylor Ouellet? I have heard a lot of courageous testimonies about her.
I'm so happy for taking the bold step in investing a little start up capital with after a week I received my profits to my bank.
I think he is a keynesian. He thinks that wealth inequality matters for the production of superior goods. Poverty is not reduced by "redistribution" but by raising the standard of living. Which requires capital. He actually thinks inflation is a good thing because it redistribute wealth. What a fiat goober
He’s not even a Keynesian. He’s just not capable of thinking from first principles. Which is fine for a historian, history is ultimately subjective.
Your claim is poorly argued.
I do sense some arrogance and some disingenuousness in this guy
Arrogant man. Don’t like his attitude
This guy can't even pronounce his own name
I like both of these gentlemen but I'm surprised the Latin Monetary Union and its variants didn't make it into the histort=y/economics/gold discussion. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_Monetary_Union Only the Anglo view of this was discussed
It always amazes me how someone could know about bitcoin for so long yet be so damn ignorant
Bit coin has been diluted to .000025 btc per trade. Tomorrow it will be devalued to .000000025 per trade.
How is that disinflationary?
Why do you think the valuation of coin has gone to nothing.
Because btc is inherently inflationary and inherently unsustainable without global adoption.
And when WWW3 comes along and they cut all the internet btc is 0.000000000