Hi. This is the first time i watch your video but i'm really impressed. And i subcribe your chanel immediately after 5 minutes. You're honest, don't like most of trading youtuber out there. If you don't mind, could yoi share your backtest spreadsheet please?
That's how you can tell he actually makes profit with trading, because he doesn't need to sell courses to make money when he's already successful with trading.
this kind of conclusion is senseless, as all elements of strategy is equally important... you need good entry point, good timing perfect money management, discipline , mindset an also exit strategy ... all of the are crucial for LONG TERM success
I'd offer one additional piece of advice for when backtesting. Filter out the times of the day when you are not likely to trade. A number of signals will appear when you are sleeping, or at times when you prefer not to be trading and hence can distort the outcome. Try to backtest at least 100 times within the time zone you are working from. Other wise for newer traders wanting to learn the really essentials of constructing a profitable system, these are great videos.
the problem, when you backtest 100 times, the error marging is 20%. You backtest 1000 times, the error marging is 6,4%. you know the confidence interval in the law of probabilities, you will see that 100 times it is not at all significant
i would also like to add something to this. if you're trading on H1 timeframe, also make sure the price is above/below 200 EMA on a higher timeframe like H4 timeframe. And if you're trading on M15/M30 timeframe use H1 timeframe as the anchor timeframe.
Excellent point! I trade intraday off of the 5, 10 and 15 minute candles but I'm always in line with the the hourly and daily trend. I will also take small countertrend trades if going down at support, or if going up at resistance. Also keeping position sizes small and losses small really has helped me. Thanks for your comment!
@@asam In TradingView in the top left there are 3 dots on the far right of the bar for EMA that you added via strategies. Click settings on the bottom of the list that pops up when you click those dots. Change resolution to a time frame above yours. I have found in back testing I took less trades and had around the same win rate.
This is the first indicator and trading strategy that I have used that made me money when I first started trading. I managed to grow a measly 20 USD account to 500 USD but it was scalping with poor risk management but luckily it worked and it was like casino. Now, as a funded trader, I still use MACD and 200 EMA but with more confluence by adding price action and multi timeframe analysis.
Wow that's true, although mine always end up with losses, I think i still have alot to learn. How can one find the platfrom you trade with, Please can you share.?
The original and one of the best TR videos. One thing that really helped me is an almost 'throw-away' detail near the end about 'if you trade intraday and do 30 trades a month', I was doing too many trades on the one-minute chart and just getting a wavy flattish p/l curve. Just taking one or a maximum of two trades a day manually using TR's MACD system ( without any deviation from the rules in the vid) in only strongly trending markets (a strict rule) and on the 30m timeframe has improved my performance incredibly and can do the same for every interested hobby/amateur trader like me. As with all TR's vids there are so many gems crammed into 10 or 20 mins, it's well worth watching them on repeat several times over.
So with MACD(below/above zero line rule), we make sure the price has given a good discount/pullback. If we use a 50EMA instead of 200 EMA, the zero line rule MACD entry/pullback will go on the other side of the 50 EMA. If the price is below 50 EMA and there is a long crossover(and vice versa), the setup no longer fits the entry rules. In other words, using the 50EMA + MACD zero line rule won't give enough setups/opportunities. So it is better to use 200 EMA most of the time. On the other hand, I have tested 50EMA + MACD (no zero line rule) in the "Beep Boop Indicator" video. That indicator I made is based on MACD crossovers(no zero line rule) and uses 50 EMA to filter the trend. tradingrush.net/trscore/
This channel is awesome. Just what I have been looking for. Its refreshing not having 101 coursers for the bargain price of only $5000 thrown in my face every 2 minutes!
Had to come back and find this video I’ve been using this strategy for the last 4-5 months using a 1:4 risk to reward on each trade and I’ve made good profit wayyyyy more wins than losses.. I just wann thank you for taking the time to test these strategies for us may God bless you!
Subbed, this is the gold, love the simple and straightforward proof of concept. Important to note guys, notice when he places the backtest trades, he does so one candlestick AFTER the crossover. When you are live, the crossover wont be confirmed until candle close so the earliest possible time, is candle open for the candle after crossover.
This is the first Video on this channel, if you have any questions related to Trading, feel free to ask. Want me to make video on a specific trading strategy to show their real WIN RATE?? Mention that strategy name it in comments!! *Important : If you watch my videos, Understand why I test Strategies 100 times and not 10000 times* : ua-cam.com/video/G7C2mKg8W60/v-deo.html Subscribe for more videos :)
What time frame do you use to scalp? It's been hard for me to find actually It’s going to be on my way or not. I tries on Gbpusd but seem Doesn't respect that much.
i really appreciate your video. It is very helpful. I been wondering around trading for 2 years already. I tried a lot of indicator. Also I watched a lot video on youtube, but I couldn't figured a good way to trade for me. 2 days ago, I randomly found this video. I gave it a shot to see how it will work for me. So far I have won 6 and lost 3. When I save up good money. I will support you on patreon. Again I really appreciate your help a lot. P/s: I still watching this video again again and again to make sure I will learn every single thing from this video.
In addition to EMA 200 filter, I find that adding EMA 50/100 as filters are good too. for price to be below/above EMAs 50, 100 and 200 for sell/buy signal. And EMAs 50/100/200 have to be in sequence of top to bottom for buy and vice versa for sell. This seems to work well for filtering choppy zones.
Use a 5m chart, add a RSI indicator trade only above 50, and use trend-lines. If trendline is broken, 50 rsi is crossed and the MACD crossover occurs above the 50MA game on
i backtested as well. i ended with 68% win rate with 1:1.5 risk ratio. i also backtested with the macd buy signal when its above the zero line and got 64% win rate. so this just doubles your opportunities to trade but with the same win rate
Melcheko cool man, I’m using this strategy on a funded account, maybe we can keep in touch on discord or something? I’m happy to show you my backtesting results on the m15?
This strategy definitely works. In my experience the best results are gained when trading only at the busiest time of day for Forex, ie when the European/London markets are open, thus also including the morning session in the US.The key here is strict money management plus using the long term moving average to filter for trend/trade bias.
This is very good! Could you explain (show) in details how you make each trade? It would be very helpful for a beginner every single detail of one of your trade. Thank you!
I have an important question. When I'm trading on the 1 minute window in example, do I open the trade IMMEDIATELY after I see the lines cross (even if just for couple seconds) or do I wait for the entire minute pass to confirm that they crossed?
Hi, please check the EMA 6,13,23 used with the MACD. The 6 EMA is showing a leading indicator ahead of the MACD. It looks like a upside down Chineses hat.
Thanks for the great videos. I tested this tonight with real $ on the MES, 1:1.5 risk reward and went 6 for 6 in about 6 hours - 1 minute chart. Also used the RSI and MFI as confirmation to get in. Worked out nicely and I had time to make dinner and take breaks while I was waiting for the good entries to present again. Dig it, I do! Is this your most successful test to date?
hey i just wanted to say thank you. this strategy you went over is very valuable. more importantly you taught me about the combination of a trend and how to properly use the macd. I used to think mac d was not a valuable indicator but seems to be after learning and implementing it may be the most valuable indicator ever. lesson learned was: know what indicators are telling you, look into how they derive the data to display. thanks so much
Thanks for the video! Just saying honestly, this is the best trading video I have seen in my life! And I have been trading for 7 years! Empirical evidence is what we all need! Just the beautiful facts with 100 trades! Thanks again and I have subscribed! Following this video we can pretend we are Mr. Spock from Star Trek and play the profitable probability.
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This is what ive been thinking in my mind for awhile now. Any strategies can make money. We just need to get more than 50% winrate and good risk management and we will end up profitable.
You can be profitable with a, for example, 30% winrate. What about if your winning trades have a 1:6 ratio? Are you sure you need that 51% winrate to be profitable? Think about it
@Oka Dharma Putra What win-ratio target will you have? Also a 1-6? So... Are you sure trading the opposite you will got 70% winrate? It's not that simple.
Doesnt work in real time because the next candle affects the x over. So you cannot be sure of a crossover until the next candle which makes you too late.
could i get a copy of your backtesting spreadsheet? Would this work with micro e mini's futures? Will it work with renko bars instead of candlesticks? One of the best vids on trading btw, keep up the good work.
Finding the entry point is pretty straight forward, but how do you determine your stop loss and take profit levels, i.e. how big of a pip movement you should target, in order to correctly set the values for the 1.5 ratio? Update: Basically I think I got myself an answer, and if you are looking forward to making easy money, I am going to disappoint you. The way you correctly set the SL and TP levels is simply by experience and the ability to find other patterns in the market (this includes support and resistance levels, indication of trade volumes,...). Sure, you could experiment and probably get lucky, but the MACD indicator combined with the EMA, while being a great starting point to filter out trades which don't make sense at all, are pretty much just one of the tools to make experienced traders trade with even less risk. Good luck to you all. And remember, trend is your friend!
Wow literally the first things said in this video opened my eyes! I once watched a guy trade in his night kimono and all he ever tried to do was sell his indicator to the viewers.
Good lesson! I've been a fan of MACD for years, but I've switched to Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) which is really the same thing; only it's normalized from absolute dollar values to percentage values. I learned to love the histogram from Dr. Elder. The computer voice narration reminded me of some deadpan cartoon humor I used to watch way back around 2011. It is a UA-cam channel called 'Xtranormal'. Some of these are still on UA-cam. Great if you like droll and deadpan.
This is the 2nd time I've seen this video. You're doing an amazing service! I appreciate your efforts. You are truly helping traders that have been listening to trading experts convince them of never putting any indicator on their chart. I now get why they must do that. If their course is simply perfecting positions using indicators then they can't justify charging so much for their trading knowledge.
Please try this : -1min chart USDJPY -50EMA above 100EMA -price above the 50&100EMA -stochastic crossover in the oversold area =BUY [opposite setup for short positions] Tp:5pips Sl:5pips Break even when 2.5pips in profit
This is the only part he 'fudges'. He says "put the stop loss is below the pullback of the trend". Many times he just puts its below recent price action. Not a pull back.
What I don't understand is why put the first take profit if when the profit reaches 1 time the risk, you break even and move the take twice the risk so the first take profit is never reached
The strategy of how you set stop loss on this test was not mentioned and it's something that will have a serious effect on the outcome. What was the criteria for stop loss setting? Thanks for great work
Find the previous swing low/high. For most trades that is where your stop loss will be set. Then your take profits will be at 1.5 times that. So if you SL is 15pips down then your take profits will be 22.5 pips up. I have been back testing and trading this for a week now. Rules for stop loss that I came up with were as follows. Max SL is 20 pips on the 15 minute chart. If there are not swing lows/highs at my intended intry point then I just set a SL at 10 pips. So far I have achieved 70% win rate on EUR/USD but it is only 52% on the EUR/GBP. AUD/USD was also around 70%. On the 4hr chart I had no pip max/min because I didnt really need one when back testing. Over the last year it was 100% on the AUD/USD. I will admit I could have missed some trades on the 4hr chart but I was fairly thorough. 4H chart I risked more though. I did 1:3 ratio with a 10% risk per trade because the trades presented about once a month.
Yes, I have the same question. It's always going to be biased when you can see the chart ahead of where you're backtesting. You can see in the video he sets it different every time.
@@randomshiz4060 I have changed my strat up a bit. So far a standard 20 pip SL on the majors seems to work just fine. 20 pip SL, 30 pip take profits. Im trying to develope a better strat but that one has a solid win rate.
@@randomshiz4060 He was following a rule based system. His decision to use the swing high/low does affect the win/loss ratio but that would still be accurate. If he sometimes when 2 pips above the swing and sometimes did 5 pips, that would be a bad test. But if he chose the sh/sl everytime then it would be as accurate as any of these back tests can be. The part that ruins the test is that he puts the trade directly on top of the cross over(I made the same mistake) so that is what makes it inaccurate.
Loving your contributions to the trading community. Thanks! A suggestion . Can you please do a video on the MACD strategy on different timeframes to see which is most profitable.
After back-testing myself, I personally find that higher timeframes are more profitable and the strategy has a higher win rate however, can take significantly much more time to unfold as opposed to something like the hourly timeframe for example.
If you back test this yourself, you would learn this sooner than waiting for him to do it and post the results. Plus, you would have confidence in yourself in being able to do this rather than relying on someone else. At one point, he knew less than what you know right now, cause then he would have known nothing about trading! The only reason he is where he is now is because he put in the time and effort into learning. Your trading ideas and the chart results WILL teach you what you want to learn. All the best!
Hi, could you please explain me the concept? I'm not sure I understood it. Does he move the stop loss after he reaches the 1:1 of the trade? What is the 25% he is talking about in the beginning? Thanks if you will want to help me
@@Iamdjgio it's quite clear, he moves stops loss to breakeven but keeps the profit target, it's about managing the trade, so even if trade doesnt reach profit target, he doesnt lose original 1% risk.
Also bear in mind his risk to reward ratio is 1/1.5 but when he breaks even he changes it to 1/2 meaning for his risk of 1% which he cancels, he will collect 2%.
Ninjatrader has a market replay feature. So u cab replay any trading day and trade as if it's you're trading in real-time. N yea paper trading is the way to go. Do it til you find a strategy that will consistently yield profits.
I watched this video two weeks ago and combining this with the VWAP and what I currently use for trading has been a game changer. This has been in front of my eyes for two years and you explaining it made it so much clearer. In the last 1.5 weeks I have only lost two trades and they were the result of stop hunts. I’m trading NAS100 on the 3m TF and scalping/day trading the market. Yesterday alone I got 6 alerts and all 6 won. Some more than others. But this strategy combined with what I was doing before is a game changer. Thank you.
Free Football Bets I have combined the strategy he teaches using the MACD and VWAP to my own personal strategy that I have used. The teachings in his videos have just enhanced what I was doing previously and help me take higher quality set ups.
Awesome content! Been watching for awhile now and I have a comment/question... I am having some trouble understanding the correlation between the win $ amount calculation vs win rate % on the 1.5 to 1 ratio. In your backtesting, your 1.5 to 1 ratio is per trade, and since the 1 ratio is determined by the previous swing high/low, that is not a constant. Therefore the calculations you made on the 100 trades, just bc its 62% winrate or 50% winrate doesn't equate to profitability or loss. Two trades 1 to 1.5 could be $5 to $7.50 and be wins, but then the third 1 to 1.5 ratio trade could be $20 to $30 and was a loss. Net profit is -$5, but winrate is 66.66%. Can you elaborate on these calculations please, a little confused.
The percentage is 62%, regardless of possible profit. The position size could be correlated with the known price range and with a proper risk management mindset, a trader would simply recalculate to compensate. this means a loss will always be about 100$ and a win would be almost always be 150$.
wow! as a beginner, I started using MACD & MA to predict trend, now stumbled across your channel, it verifies the strategy validity. thanks for doing this video!
This channel is excellent - all education and highly useful / implementable strategies - no selling or nonsense. Absolutely brilliant and I hope the creator is making loads of money from it.
Thank you for giving back to the public. Straight data and honesty. This guy’s the actual Robin Hood, and money management lessons will build the middle class in dark months to come. Appreciate the fishing lesson.
The only problem I see is when price starts to range it can really chop you up if you're not careful and stack on the losses. An FX pair like GBPJPY can trend nice but can also do hardcore ranging sessions and just whip everyone about and it can do this for days maybe even weeks so if you can't identify when a pair starts ranging you're in big trouble.
This is the best trading video I have ever seen. I have wasted so much time on strategies and trying to use trend lines, but not anymore. Thanks so much. I feel more confident and relaxed trading now
sir can you add one more filter to your trades , ADX value should be more than 25 while taking any buy or sale trade and lets see what is accuracy after that, i think many of choppy trades would will be avoided
Rush, I've been trading for 15 years. When I look at the strategy and employ it real time MACD rarely pulls back to the other side of the zero line on nice trend pullbacks thus negating your entry. Any ideas on this?
I had test it on my own yesterday with m15 on eurusd, started with 10000 usd. Got 68% winrate. With profit gain of 98%. I don't know, but It seems kinda unrealistic. Started from 23 January 2020 until last week. Took me 5 hours though.
@@yeouweichung6953 yes, only eurusd as for now. This one I did not take into account the broker's spread & I also pick a trade without looking at the momentum (above zero or under zero). Whenever there is MACD cross, I take it. Just keeping it as amateur as possible🤞.
Update: I've taken into account the spread of 16pip, hold every trade max of 12 hours. Result : winrate=66% profit =124% max loss in a row=4 max win in a row = 9 Gonna test it again on another timeline and neutral market.
Can you test this.. make macd d 8,21,5.. add RSI.. when rsi signal crosses the 50 line either up or down .. take the trade only if the Macd D is crossing over going in the direction of rsi. Example:. line crosses rsi 50 line in up direction.. macd D is below the 0 line and also crossing in up direction.. opposite.. take trade when rsi crosses below 50 line and macd is crossing down and above the 0 line. The rsi replaces the 200 MA and doesn’t rely only on tend.,
@@tcavalo hi, when I plug the hma signal on the rsi, with both set to 48 and source as “Close” looking at many stocks the hma seems often like a straight line and doesn’t have many crossovers. Did I set the criteria correctly?
Great videos! I still can't figure out how I would download this app to my computer so I could test it on my trades. Seems like an android only app and I don't know how I would integrate that with chart trading. Any help?
I honestly have so much RESPECT for you & your videos. Very informative, straight forward & the animation is also great & easy to understand. PLEASE don’t ever change lol
This vid is a great eye opener! The real time recorded back test with the high speed run is an excellent way to communicate much info in a short time. Thanks for this wonderful presentation!
You have tu test this strategy on different timeframes and different markets. The win rate may change. I noticed, that in audusd, at 15 min time frame, the win rate is about 64%,but at 1 h time frame it's 48%. So, i will consider only the 15 min trades on aud usd. Btw if your win rate is 48% you are still gaining money
I like this idea of a sure entry point....but I'm confused on "when to exit" the position. Are you saying that when entering: find the support (which is RISK) and try for the profit of the same % above current price? (where you then exit 25% and try for 2x profit? something like that?) I'm trying to better understand the exit point to code into a rules engine.... thanks in advance to anyone that can help...
I think that’s what he means, yeah. Although personally I just go for a lesser target, say between 1.3 and 1.5 times the risk. I did some backtesting recently, got 67% win rate at 1.35x the risk on a 5 minute chart across three currency pairs
Subscribed immediately just after watching 2 minutes into the video. Great work. I'm a beginner. This is encouraging and motivational. I lost huge amounts of money as I didn't know money management. Thanks a lot. Love from India 🥰
Great information. I will be trying this indicator starting tomorrow. One thing I've noticed after reading a lot of the comments is you don't seem to answer any questions in the comment section. Still great information and I subscribed.
These videos your are doing exposing the probabilities of different strategies are amazing. Fantastic work. I've never back tested this way before, mostly because I didn't know how. I'm going to start back testing now. Could you also do a video on back testing? Also another suggestion would be a video of MACD divergence strategy.
I'm hooked to your channel now.. its going to be binge watching. All your videos are simply awesome, especially for someone like me who is a beginner. Thank you!!!
@@vegetaz1532 I'm trading just forex.. I decided to take a break from trading. This strategy like any other indicator strategy is a 50/50. If you trade this blindly I think you're going to win even less than 50% of your trades (because of the spreads). It's not that easy. You need to spot the right market conditions as well
Hi TR, thanks for the video! How do you set your stop loss and entry? I noticed you said that several winning trades came close to stopping out. How did you set the stop relative to the MACD crossover point?
This is how a trading video should be done. All facts and probabilities, zero fake hype or rented Lamborghinis. Bravo and subscribed
EXTREMELY straight to the point video! Congratulations my friend!
Exactly. The back testing was crystal clear
I'd rather see the facts and probabilities alongside the Lamborghinis.
i 100% agree.
Hi. This is the first time i watch your video but i'm really impressed. And i subcribe your chanel immediately after 5 minutes. You're honest, don't like most of trading youtuber out there. If you don't mind, could yoi share your backtest spreadsheet please?
FINALLY, A TRADING CHANNEL THAT DOESN'T SELL $500 COURSES. THANK YOU
That's how you can tell he actually makes profit with trading, because he doesn't need to sell courses to make money when he's already successful with trading.
$500 if you're lucky. Most cost $5,000, your unborn child, and a cup of crickets.
@@thrivetrading4411 do you think this is worth trying?
Ecksdee beautifully said.
How much would you be willing to pay? I'll sell you one at that price. LOL
This proofs
that money management is much more important than any trading system. Impressive.
Yes.. agree with you bro
this kind of conclusion is senseless, as all elements of strategy is equally important... you need good entry point, good timing perfect money management, discipline , mindset an also exit strategy ... all of the are crucial for LONG TERM success
Money management & technical indicator both combined strategy give u a better results
Proofs
Agreed
I just backtested this strategi 100 times and it gave the exact 62% win rate which is incredible it' the same. Good job man 👌
What signal did you used? I can‘t get results over 48%
Forex or stocks? Which timeframe? Thanks for your answer
@JQUICK21wow newbie
I'd offer one additional piece of advice for when backtesting. Filter out the times of the day when you are not likely to trade. A number of signals will appear when you are sleeping, or at times when you prefer not to be trading and hence can distort the outcome. Try to backtest at least 100 times within the time zone you are working from.
Other wise for newer traders wanting to learn the really essentials of constructing a profitable system, these are great videos.
Would it be right to say the 100x entries should be on the same Forex pairs? Not just 100 x across different pairs?
@@olumideawobowale2897 Yes and believe me, 100 is not a lot.
Thanks
the problem, when you backtest 100 times, the error marging is 20%. You backtest 1000 times, the error marging is 6,4%. you know the confidence interval in the law of probabilities, you will see that 100 times it is not at all significant
i would also like to add something to this. if you're trading on H1 timeframe, also make sure the price is above/below 200 EMA on a higher timeframe like H4 timeframe. And if you're trading on M15/M30 timeframe use H1 timeframe as the anchor timeframe.
Excellent point! I trade intraday off of the 5, 10 and 15 minute candles but I'm always in line with the the hourly and daily trend. I will also take small countertrend trades if going down at support, or if going up at resistance. Also keeping position sizes small and losses small really has helped me. Thanks for your comment!
How can you do that on Tradingview for example?
@@asam In TradingView in the top left there are 3 dots on the far right of the bar for EMA that you added via strategies. Click settings on the bottom of the list that pops up when you click those dots. Change resolution to a time frame above yours. I have found in back testing I took less trades and had around the same win rate.
ProjectAbsolute07 Hm. I have checked two of the EMA from the public library. They don't have the option to change the resolution.
Just use metatrader
'I do not wish to sell you anything'
*Proceeds to not sell me anything
Im sold.
lol right
same here hahaha
...but I accept donations lol..
Hahaha exactly
BOOOOOOM!!!
You’re the best! The fact that you don’t even sell courses or signal services just shows your intent
lol
tbf he does lol
The most common sense video on trading I have seen in a long time without all the blah blah blah BS from other channels. Risk management is the key!
This is the first indicator and trading strategy that I have used that made me money when I first started trading. I managed to grow a measly 20 USD account to 500 USD but it was scalping with poor risk management but luckily it worked and it was like casino. Now, as a funded trader, I still use MACD and 200 EMA but with more confluence by adding price action and multi timeframe analysis.
Bro no offense can I ask for your trading portfolio cause I'm planning to use this strategy too thank you in advance.
@Anna Lewis To avoid making losses while trading, you need to get full understanding and knowledge of trading and holding
You're right..most time having knowledge or insight about a particular activity can as well be a pleasing exercise.
That,s true most people today have been having a lot of failures in trading sector because of bad platform and poor orientation.
Wow that's true, although mine always end up with losses, I think i still have alot to learn. How can one find the platfrom you trade with, Please can you share.?
The original and one of the best TR videos. One thing that really helped me is an almost 'throw-away' detail near the end about 'if you trade intraday and do 30 trades a month', I was doing too many trades on the one-minute chart and just getting a wavy flattish p/l curve. Just taking one or a maximum of two trades a day manually using TR's MACD system ( without any deviation from the rules in the vid) in only strongly trending markets (a strict rule) and on the 30m timeframe has improved my performance incredibly and can do the same for every interested hobby/amateur trader like me. As with all TR's vids there are so many gems crammed into 10 or 20 mins, it's well worth watching them on repeat several times over.
Thanks!
Can you try the MACD / Stochastic Strategy using 50 EMA instead of 200 EMA? Please
So with MACD(below/above zero line rule), we make sure the price has given a good discount/pullback. If we use a 50EMA instead of 200 EMA, the zero line rule MACD entry/pullback will go on the other side of the 50 EMA. If the price is below 50 EMA and there is a long crossover(and vice versa), the setup no longer fits the entry rules. In other words, using the 50EMA + MACD zero line rule won't give enough setups/opportunities. So it is better to use 200 EMA most of the time. On the other hand, I have tested 50EMA + MACD (no zero line rule) in the "Beep Boop Indicator" video. That indicator I made is based on MACD crossovers(no zero line rule) and uses 50 EMA to filter the trend. tradingrush.net/trscore/
This channel is awesome. Just what I have been looking for. Its refreshing not having 101 coursers for the bargain price of only $5000 thrown in my face every 2 minutes!
I can’t thank you enough. Imagine what the world would be like if there were more people like you. Thank you!
I don’t comment much on UA-cam videos. With that being said, I’m very happy to have found you. Keep up the content!
Had to come back and find this video I’ve been using this strategy for the last 4-5 months using a 1:4 risk to reward on each trade and I’ve made good profit wayyyyy more wins than losses.. I just wann thank you for taking the time to test these strategies for us may God bless you!
Wow! You have a higher than 50% winrate with 1:4 RR? How?
What's your win rate with 1:4 RR?
With that rr and win rate u should be a millionaire 😂😂
Congratulations and please never sell out. I watched about 30 channels out there. Yours is definely the most sincere one. Keep up this great work.
Subbed, this is the gold, love the simple and straightforward proof of concept.
Important to note guys, notice when he places the backtest trades, he does so one candlestick AFTER the crossover. When you are live, the crossover wont be confirmed until candle close so the earliest possible time, is candle open for the candle after crossover.
was confused about this before, thanks for clearing it up!
That is indeed also the flaw about MACD, signals are a little delayed!
This is the first Video on this channel, if you have any questions related to Trading, feel free to ask.
Want me to make video on a specific trading strategy to show their real WIN RATE?? Mention that strategy name it in comments!!
*Important : If you watch my videos, Understand why I test Strategies 100 times and not 10000 times* : ua-cam.com/video/G7C2mKg8W60/v-deo.html
Subscribe for more videos :)
Could you please share the empty excel sheet of the win/loss profit/loss?
I already did! Check out this video on how to download it : ua-cam.com/video/fLKd7uKZOvA/v-deo.html
sir...did it work on equity with day time frame ?
Beat resource channel for trading strategies ever.
I watched out all videos but unfortunately could not find how to screen stocks and create the daily watchlist :(
I think you just made me 100% more profitable on my scalps. You deserve all the blessings in life for this!
How do you scalp with macd??
@@faceit3568 In the same way you would use it to day trade.
What time frame do you use to scalp? It's been hard for me to find actually It’s going to be on my way or not. I tries on Gbpusd but seem Doesn't respect that much.
@@faceit3568 I scalp on tick charts.
@@faceit3568 The same principles from other time frames apply except the holding period is seconds not minutes.
i really appreciate your video. It is very helpful. I been wondering around trading for 2 years already. I tried a lot of indicator. Also I watched a lot video on youtube, but I couldn't figured a good way to trade for me. 2 days ago, I randomly found this video. I gave it a shot to see how it will work for me. So far I have won 6 and lost 3. When I save up good money. I will support you on patreon. Again I really appreciate your help a lot.
P/s: I still watching this video again again and again to make sure I will learn every single thing from this video.
In addition to EMA 200 filter, I find that adding EMA 50/100 as filters are good too. for price to be below/above EMAs 50, 100 and 200 for sell/buy signal. And EMAs 50/100/200 have to be in sequence of top to bottom for buy and vice versa for sell. This seems to work well for filtering choppy zones.
I do this too, using 200/100/50 and they have to be inline, good stuff
@@sunzbckk same. I removed 20 as it seems to be overkill, although Win rate is better but way less trades. 50/100/200 way to go :)
I use 50/200 ema. Doesn't matter where price is. 50 above 200, only buy, vice versa.
The best forex trading education channel I've ever seen . Thanks a lot for your sharing knowledge !!!
Use a 5m chart, add a RSI indicator trade only above 50, and use trend-lines. If trendline is broken, 50 rsi is crossed and the MACD crossover occurs above the 50MA game on
you're doing god's work mate. Probabilities are what traders need to learn before strategies.
i backtested as well. i ended with 68% win rate with 1:1.5 risk ratio.
i also backtested with the macd buy signal when its above the zero line and got 64% win rate. so this just doubles your opportunities to trade but with the same win rate
Thanks for sharing, which time frame did you use? Did you test 100?
@@sunzbckk i did 2hr aggregation and yes
Melcheko cool man, I’m using this strategy on a funded account, maybe we can keep in touch on discord or something? I’m happy to show you my backtesting results on the m15?
@@sunzbckk yeah sure
Melcheko comment once you’ve added me so I know
This strategy definitely works. In my experience the best results are gained when trading only at the busiest time of day for Forex, ie when the European/London markets are open, thus also including the morning session in the US.The key here is strict money management plus using the long term moving average to filter for trend/trade bias.
Are you using this strategy also mate? I’m trading it on london session only too
@@sunzbckk and how's the result
Kannan Manoj I backtested it on EU with a 2R target, got 52% wr over 100 trades, so did really well
@@sunzbckk wow and sir wat was the time frame , thanks in advance
@@sunzbckk sir time frame and stop loss pips plsssss
This is very good!
Could you explain (show) in details how you make each trade? It would be very helpful for a beginner every single detail of one of your trade. Thank you!
I have an important question. When I'm trading on the 1 minute window in example, do I open the trade IMMEDIATELY after I see the lines cross (even if just for couple seconds) or do I wait for the entire minute pass to confirm that they crossed?
wait for candle close
Finally after 4 years of searching....! I found GOLD...
Yes i found after 5 years of searching
i came here looking for copper
and i found gold
I found same, searching since 2017
Yes! Completely agree. This is a great find.
I havent lost a trade and ive done 7 of them!!! Just pair it with a stochastic and a VWAP he made a video about and your wins will go up
This, this guy. He is the man we need. Thank you.
Wow. This is the best trading education channel I’ve seen yet. Without even hint of hype, and free. Well played sir. I hope more find this.
You have no idea how much we appreciate this. Truly amazing videos on this channel. Will be binge watching the rest soon. Thanks again!
Hi, please check the EMA 6,13,23 used with the MACD. The 6 EMA is showing a leading indicator ahead of the MACD. It looks like a upside down Chineses hat.
Thanks for the great videos. I tested this tonight with real $ on the MES, 1:1.5 risk reward and went 6 for 6 in about 6 hours - 1 minute chart. Also used the RSI and MFI as confirmation to get in. Worked out nicely and I had time to make dinner and take breaks while I was waiting for the good entries to present again. Dig it, I do! Is this your most successful test to date?
Can u explain further about your strategy?
Can you please explain a little
hey i just wanted to say thank you. this strategy you went over is very valuable. more importantly you taught me about the combination of a trend and how to properly use the macd. I used to think mac d was not a valuable indicator but seems to be after learning and implementing it may be the most valuable indicator ever. lesson learned was: know what indicators are telling you, look into how they derive the data to display. thanks so much
Thanks for the video! Just saying honestly, this is the best trading video I have seen in my life! And I have been trading for 7 years! Empirical evidence is what we all need! Just the beautiful facts with 100 trades! Thanks again and I have subscribed! Following this video we can pretend we are Mr. Spock from Star Trek and play the profitable probability.
agree these vids are awesome
Hello
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Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency...isn’t it always better to get in early? Just push a button on the app once every 24-hours...and next thing you know you are mining Pi.
Pi doesn’t have value, but hopefully, as more and more people join...it will be worth something. I mean, bitcoin started without value...now look at it.
Are you a full time trader since 7 years?
Thanks a lot I never had no strategies to use but yo channel helped me a lot. You the best.
This is what ive been thinking in my mind for awhile now. Any strategies can make money. We just need to get more than 50% winrate and good risk management and we will end up profitable.
You can be profitable with a, for example, 30% winrate. What about if your winning trades have a 1:6 ratio? Are you sure you need that 51% winrate to be profitable? Think about it
@Oka Dharma Putra What win-ratio target will you have? Also a 1-6? So... Are you sure trading the opposite you will got 70% winrate? It's not that simple.
i made from 1,000 to 100,000 just by 3 trade. risking 10% of account. R to R ratio is 1:10 and win percentage is 30%.
Sungjin Hong can you explain further?
@@seoul_Jin500 why not risking 50 percent?)))
4:38 buy setup: above 200EMA, MACD crossover, below zero line
I am so thankful for this video. This guy literally saved us hours of testing.
Doesnt work in real time because the next candle affects the x over. So you cannot be sure of a crossover until the next candle which makes you too late.
could i get a copy of your backtesting spreadsheet? Would this work with micro e mini's futures? Will it work with renko bars instead of candlesticks? One of the best vids on trading btw, keep up the good work.
Clear and simple. This is the way it should be done. Facts and backtesting with indicators that everybody can have access to without paying $$$$$
Finding the entry point is pretty straight forward, but how do you determine your stop loss and take profit levels, i.e. how big of a pip movement you should target, in order to correctly set the values for the 1.5 ratio?
Update: Basically I think I got myself an answer, and if you are looking forward to making easy money, I am going to disappoint you. The way you correctly set the SL and TP levels is simply by experience and the ability to find other patterns in the market (this includes support and resistance levels, indication of trade volumes,...).
Sure, you could experiment and probably get lucky, but the MACD indicator combined with the EMA, while being a great starting point to filter out trades which don't make sense at all, are pretty much just one of the tools to make experienced traders trade with even less risk.
Good luck to you all. And remember, trend is your friend!
I was thinking the same .
Use the ATR indicator, I use a "double-ATR stop loss" method then you can set TP accordingly to that.
@@TheKannanmnj I have updated my original comment with a finding of mine, and a most probable answer to my question.
@@luongbachnguyen155 Thank you for the tip, mate.
This was the best non sugar coated straight to the fact video ever. Thank you very much. You really made my day.
The universe is really amazing. You are a gift.
This guy is good unlike other youtube channel. He uses pure fact and testing probability.
Makes sense, like poker, you can't go all in on every hand. Take the difference in % win loss, be consistent.
I use this analogy all the time, Poker is effectively a game about risk management.
What an easy, beginner strategy for someone like myself to learn how to trade. You just earned another subscriber.
Wow literally the first things said in this video opened my eyes! I once watched a guy trade in his night kimono and all he ever tried to do was sell his indicator to the viewers.
Good lesson! I've been a fan of MACD for years, but I've switched to Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) which is really the same thing; only it's normalized from absolute dollar values to percentage values. I learned to love the histogram from Dr. Elder.
The computer voice narration reminded me of some deadpan cartoon humor I used to watch way back around 2011.
It is a UA-cam channel called 'Xtranormal'. Some of these are still on UA-cam. Great if you like droll and deadpan.
This is the 2nd time I've seen this video. You're doing an amazing service! I appreciate your efforts. You are truly helping traders that have been listening to trading experts convince them of never putting any indicator on their chart. I now get why they must do that. If their course is simply perfecting positions using indicators then they can't justify charging so much for their trading knowledge.
Please try this :
-1min chart USDJPY
-50EMA above 100EMA
-price above the 50&100EMA
-stochastic crossover in the oversold area
=BUY [opposite setup for short positions]
Tp:5pips
Sl:5pips
Break even when 2.5pips in profit
How are you determining the stop loss level when backtesting this strategy?
I'm also wondering how he does it.
for what i understand your stop loss must below your profit target,if your profit target 150 your stop loss should around 100 or below..
This is the only part he 'fudges'. He says "put the stop loss is below the pullback of the trend". Many times he just puts its below recent price action. Not a pull back.
@@ElxlAniMesssssss yeah I understood that too
What I don't understand is why put the first take profit if when the profit reaches 1 time the risk, you break even and move the take twice the risk so the first take profit is never reached
Instantly subscribed. Thanks for not filling your video with wasted time and getting straight to the point
The strategy of how you set stop loss on this test was not mentioned and it's something that will have a serious effect on the outcome. What was the criteria for stop loss setting? Thanks for great work
Find the previous swing low/high. For most trades that is where your stop loss will be set. Then your take profits will be at 1.5 times that. So if you SL is 15pips down then your take profits will be 22.5 pips up. I have been back testing and trading this for a week now. Rules for stop loss that I came up with were as follows. Max SL is 20 pips on the 15 minute chart. If there are not swing lows/highs at my intended intry point then I just set a SL at 10 pips. So far I have achieved 70% win rate on EUR/USD but it is only 52% on the EUR/GBP. AUD/USD was also around 70%. On the 4hr chart I had no pip max/min because I didnt really need one when back testing. Over the last year it was 100% on the AUD/USD. I will admit I could have missed some trades on the 4hr chart but I was fairly thorough. 4H chart I risked more though. I did 1:3 ratio with a 10% risk per trade because the trades presented about once a month.
Yes, I have the same question. It's always going to be biased when you can see the chart ahead of where you're backtesting. You can see in the video he sets it different every time.
@@randomshiz4060 I have changed my strat up a bit. So far a standard 20 pip SL on the majors seems to work just fine. 20 pip SL, 30 pip take profits. Im trying to develope a better strat but that one has a solid win rate.
@@bnkiBirbz Thanks. My point is that he is setting it differently each time, and that will affect the win/loss ratio. It's not a clean test.
@@randomshiz4060 He was following a rule based system. His decision to use the swing high/low does affect the win/loss ratio but that would still be accurate. If he sometimes when 2 pips above the swing and sometimes did 5 pips, that would be a bad test. But if he chose the sh/sl everytime then it would be as accurate as any of these back tests can be. The part that ruins the test is that he puts the trade directly on top of the cross over(I made the same mistake) so that is what makes it inaccurate.
Nice approach. Congrats! I appreciate your genuineness. Will be a regular follower for sure.
Loving your contributions to the trading community. Thanks! A suggestion . Can you please do a video on the MACD strategy on different timeframes to see which is most profitable.
After back-testing myself, I personally find that higher timeframes are more profitable and the strategy has a higher win rate however, can take significantly much more time to unfold as opposed to something like the hourly timeframe for example.
If you back test this yourself, you would learn this sooner than waiting for him to do it and post the results. Plus, you would have confidence in yourself in being able to do this rather than relying on someone else. At one point, he knew less than what you know right now, cause then he would have known nothing about trading! The only reason he is where he is now is because he put in the time and effort into learning. Your trading ideas and the chart results WILL teach you what you want to learn. All the best!
Absolute golden tip @ 2:30 ...have watched many times....thank you @TRADING RUSH!
Hi, could you please explain me the concept? I'm not sure I understood it. Does he move the stop loss after he reaches the 1:1 of the trade? What is the 25% he is talking about in the beginning? Thanks if you will want to help me
@@Iamdjgio it's quite clear, he moves stops loss to breakeven but keeps the profit target, it's about managing the trade, so even if trade doesnt reach profit target, he doesnt lose original 1% risk.
@@Iamdjgio where does he mention 25%
@@theforeignspeculator thank you very much for the confirmation! He talks about taking off 25% of the trade at 02:27
Also bear in mind his risk to reward ratio is 1/1.5 but when he breaks even he changes it to 1/2 meaning for his risk of 1% which he cancels, he will collect 2%.
Im relatively new and I'm risking 2.5% per trade but my capital is fairly small for trading and I really can't go to much lower
Maybe consider using a demo-account and safing up some more money.
Can pick some mini futures. If still risky, paper trading and save more money can be a good idea.
Ninjatrader has a market replay feature. So u cab replay any trading day and trade as if it's you're trading in real-time. N yea paper trading is the way to go. Do it til you find a strategy that will consistently yield profits.
I watched this video two weeks ago and combining this with the VWAP and what I currently use for trading has been a game changer. This has been in front of my eyes for two years and you explaining it made it so much clearer. In the last 1.5 weeks I have only lost two trades and they were the result of stop hunts. I’m trading NAS100 on the 3m TF and scalping/day trading the market. Yesterday alone I got 6 alerts and all 6 won. Some more than others. But this strategy combined with what I was doing before is a game changer. Thank you.
Can you explain a bit more please ?
Free Football Bets I have combined the strategy he teaches using the MACD and VWAP to my own personal strategy that I have used. The teachings in his videos have just enhanced what I was doing previously and help me take higher quality set ups.
Can i know your stratergy mate ? sounds interesting!
Awesome content! Been watching for awhile now and I have a comment/question... I am having some trouble understanding the correlation between the win $ amount calculation vs win rate % on the 1.5 to 1 ratio. In your backtesting, your 1.5 to 1 ratio is per trade, and since the 1 ratio is determined by the previous swing high/low, that is not a constant. Therefore the calculations you made on the 100 trades, just bc its 62% winrate or 50% winrate doesn't equate to profitability or loss. Two trades 1 to 1.5 could be $5 to $7.50 and be wins, but then the third 1 to 1.5 ratio trade could be $20 to $30 and was a loss. Net profit is -$5, but winrate is 66.66%. Can you elaborate on these calculations please, a little confused.
The percentage is 62%, regardless of possible profit. The position size could be correlated with the known price range and with a proper risk management mindset, a trader would simply recalculate to compensate. this means a loss will always be about 100$ and a win would be almost always be 150$.
@@zatnicatienth Can you make an example how to calculate it?
@@thearchive_4966 Just search for an online position size calculator.
@@thearchive_4966 Search for mt4 position size calculator for metatrader
A certain percentage of the deposit is always used to calculate the position size. And although trade size changes, the percentage stays the same.
wow! as a beginner, I started using MACD & MA to predict trend, now stumbled across your channel, it verifies the strategy validity. thanks for doing this video!
Excellent. The best post on this tough profession out there! Many thanks.
Great video! I agree most probably don't know their win rate, and even worse, most don't stick to their stop loss.
My MACD in FXCM doesn't have the 2 lines, how do i set it up to have the additional 2 lines in macd
This channel is excellent - all education and highly useful / implementable strategies - no selling or nonsense. Absolutely brilliant and I hope the creator is making loads of money from it.
Thank you for giving back to the public. Straight data and honesty. This guy’s the actual Robin Hood, and money management lessons will build the middle class in dark months to come. Appreciate the fishing lesson.
Thanks for this video. Would you recommend to close the trade based on the indicator instead of using target profit?
Fantastic video. Quick question: what timeframe did you use for backtesting? Is it the 30 minute like at the beginning of the video?
he said any timeframe
The most no BS trading channel I've ever seen on UA-cam. Very straight forward and to the point. Thank you for uploading this. I'm subscribing!!
I LOVE and appreciate what u do here more than I could ever explain
The only problem I see is when price starts to range it can really chop you up if you're not careful and stack on the losses. An FX pair like GBPJPY can trend nice but can also do hardcore ranging sessions and just whip everyone about and it can do this for days maybe even weeks so if you can't identify when a pair starts ranging you're in big trouble.
This is the best trading video I have ever seen. I have wasted so much time on strategies and trying to use trend lines, but not anymore. Thanks so much. I feel more confident and relaxed trading now
Yes trendlines are so unpreditctable, follow the NNFX way 🙌
Does this work for scalping? As in the 1 to 5 minute time frame?
sir can you add one more filter to your trades , ADX value should be more than 25 while taking any buy or sale trade and lets see what is accuracy after that, i think many of choppy trades would will be avoided
Rush, I've been trading for 15 years. When I look at the strategy and employ it real time MACD rarely pulls back to the other side of the zero line on nice trend pullbacks thus negating your entry. Any ideas on this?
lol how did he get the 100 trades for the backtest then?
Thank you! To be honest I don’t like to subscribe fast... but I did on this channel, this guy deserves it 100%
I had test it on my own yesterday with m15 on eurusd, started with 10000 usd. Got 68% winrate. With profit gain of 98%. I don't know, but It seems kinda unrealistic. Started from 23 January 2020 until last week. Took me 5 hours though.
Yes that is a good win rate and great return on investment :)
bro , are u only do eruusd ?
@@yeouweichung6953 yes, only eurusd as for now. This one I did not take into account the broker's spread & I also pick a trade without looking at the momentum (above zero or under zero). Whenever there is MACD cross, I take it. Just keeping it as amateur as possible🤞.
Update: I've taken into account the spread of 16pip, hold every trade max of 12 hours.
Result :
winrate=66%
profit =124%
max loss in a row=4
max win in a row = 9
Gonna test it again on another timeline and neutral market.
@@ikramshamshuddin8806 thank you bro
Can you test this.. make macd d 8,21,5.. add RSI.. when rsi signal crosses the 50 line either up or down .. take the trade only if the Macd D is crossing over going in the direction of rsi. Example:. line crosses rsi 50 line in up direction.. macd D is below the 0 line and also crossing in up direction.. opposite.. take trade when rsi crosses below 50 line and macd is crossing down and above the 0 line. The rsi replaces the 200 MA and doesn’t rely only on tend.,
@@tcavalo thanks. Not familiar with HMA but will def look into it. 👍
@@tcavalo hi, when I plug the hma signal on the rsi, with both set to 48 and source as “Close” looking at many stocks the hma seems often like a straight line and doesn’t have many crossovers. Did I set the criteria correctly?
Great videos! I still can't figure out how I would download this app to my computer so I could test it on my trades. Seems like an android only app and I don't know how I would integrate that with chart trading. Any help?
I honestly have so much RESPECT for you & your videos. Very informative, straight forward & the animation is also great & easy to understand. PLEASE don’t ever change lol
Great content. Thank you. Would be nice if you could do similar back testing with different indicator combinations like 2 or 3 indicators.
This vid is a great eye opener! The real time recorded back test with the high speed run is an excellent way to communicate much info in a short time. Thanks for this wonderful presentation!
I have tried the strategy 200 times on the 1 hour chart, the win rate was 58% for 1:1.5 risk ratio
Which time frame?
You have tu test this strategy on different timeframes and different markets. The win rate may change. I noticed, that in audusd, at 15 min time frame, the win rate is about 64%,but at 1 h time frame it's 48%. So, i will consider only the 15 min trades on aud usd. Btw if your win rate is 48% you are still gaining money
did you try it with other pairs and timeframes?
@@norbyvevo4634 Wow this is quite incredible. You got discord brother?
How is it going guys
Wow i been searching a Chart strategy and this channel is really the best of all.
I like this idea of a sure entry point....but I'm confused on "when to exit" the position. Are you saying that when entering: find the support (which is RISK) and try for the profit of the same % above current price? (where you then exit 25% and try for 2x profit? something like that?) I'm trying to better understand the exit point to code into a rules engine.... thanks in advance to anyone that can help...
I think that’s what he means, yeah. Although personally I just go for a lesser target, say between 1.3 and 1.5 times the risk. I did some backtesting recently, got 67% win rate at 1.35x the risk on a 5 minute chart across three currency pairs
@@lewiscoates1691 can you please tell me what are those pairs? EU EJ AU?
Beautiful. This is one of the few you tuber I found genuine. Subscribed and gave two likes. One on TV and one on phone. He deserves this.
Thanks for sharing... You just increase my confidence level... You are blessed.
Timeless advice from solid research! Very well said and done! Thank you!
Subscribed immediately just after watching 2 minutes into the video. Great work. I'm a beginner. This is encouraging and motivational. I lost huge amounts of money as I didn't know money management. Thanks a lot. Love from India 🥰
Me too boss
@@TheKannanmnj Are u a day trader?
Great information. I will be trying this indicator starting tomorrow. One thing I've noticed after reading a lot of the comments is you don't seem to answer any questions in the comment section. Still great information and I subscribed.
First video I've watched that actually has meaningful information. Thankyou
These videos your are doing exposing the probabilities of different strategies are amazing. Fantastic work. I've never back tested this way before, mostly because I didn't know how. I'm going to start back testing now. Could you also do a video on back testing? Also another suggestion would be a video of MACD divergence strategy.
TheNativeTwo did you backtest it? How did it do? I am also backtesting it
Combine MACD with Connor's RSI for incredible results.
show data
What connor's rsi is?
I'm hooked to your channel now.. its going to be binge watching. All your videos are simply awesome, especially for someone like me who is a beginner. Thank you!!!
Just started trading live this strategy. First 4 trades, 4 losses... good start
Yeah, don’t let the losses get to u, money management is key. Make more than those losses :)
how is it going now? what are you trading on?
@@vegetaz1532 I'm trading just forex.. I decided to take a break from trading. This strategy like any other indicator strategy is a 50/50. If you trade this blindly I think you're going to win even less than 50% of your trades (because of the spreads). It's not that easy. You need to spot the right market conditions as well
@@vegetaz1532 hey buddy! Let me help you get started okay?
@@jenniferstones3250 ok
Thanks for the beautiful video. Can you pls tell what tool u used for back testing?
Seems pretty interesting
Hi TR, thanks for the video! How do you set your stop loss and entry? I noticed you said that several winning trades came close to stopping out. How did you set the stop relative to the MACD crossover point?