I gave up on the burden a while ago. Have been professionally involved in climate policy for 15 years, and I’m only still doing it because it needs to be done. But any sense of positivity about things was abandoned many years ago. Nothing will change, nothing will be done, no damage control will really happen. “I told you so” is not much comfort….
Why are many comments removed here? Did someone simply have a dissenting opinion? Polar Portal reports that Greenland has *GAINED* 400 gigatons of ice in 2022-23. Clearly not much melting going on.
Thanks for putting up these detailed reviews of the evolving ice melt on Greenland. Your presentation is concise and to the point and of course very concerning going forward.
If only we humans were as intelligent as we think we are. We're so totally immersed in our silly little human world where it's all about one side against another whether different political groups, or different self serving empires, and we mistake that as reality when the real reality that lies beyond our humancentric civilisation is shifting at a drastic rate.
@@per2 well unless the growing instability makes our political systems do something really drastic as they try to maintain a normality that quickly becomes unattainable. We can be happy there's been no nuclear weapons used during conflicts since WW2, but what happens when things really deteriorate and you have governments really desperate to ensure their panicked populations have enough resources, or even those governments falling apart and the nuclear weapons ending up in the hands of some group that's taken over during that chaos?
Since the billionaires have siphoned 99% of the world wealth into their control, massive poverty is rapidly escalating which results in more and more homeless people as more and more people and more and more countries are going bankrupt - worldwide - while thousands and thousands of high-rise buildings sit mostly empty - including high-rise residential buildings, high-rise commercial buildings and high-rise hotel buildings as thousands of mansions and palaces also sit mostly empty - which means we have an abundance of housing, we also have an abundance of food - if you don't believe it, go to your local supermarket and go to your local farmer's market - we also have an abundance of cars and trucks and SUV's sitting empty - if you don't believe it, drive passed your local dealerships - and there's plenty of cell phones and plenty of laptops, plenty of furniture, etc. - the problem is that the billionaires are hoarding the wealth - and since the billionaires want to control the world and control the people - while the people want freedom, privacy and independence - and since the billionaires have turned the control of their wealth and their advanced tech weaponry over to the AI - while the AI makes threats and brags about their secrets, we probably have little time left.
And just an update, right now on 26th july (in Australia) , another larger atmospheric river hitting the southeast side , inline with Iceland....but a frightening large mostly rain blob over the north of island and Elsmere Island. This is just on the satellite forcasts on the weather channel app. It would make sense that the East Canadian flooding a few days ago would be part of that ocean heat system .
Carl Sa'tan would declare anything they pay him to come on TV to spew. Bill McKibben was a failed New Yorker writer until he hit on End of Days novellas, then changed his slogan to Climate CHAINS! and now he's a Vermont millionaire on a private estate. _AGW Cultism been belli belli good for McKibben!_
270 gigatonnes is 540,000 pounds, times a billion, kids... 67.5 quadrillion gallons, if my math worked, per year, averaged... If you're measuring millimeters of sea level rise, you're missing the point, buddy.
Issues such as climate change, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, pollution, and overconsumption of resources have already had severe impacts on ecosystems, wildlife, and human populations in various parts of the world. The extent to which Earth is heading towards an ecological disaster largely depends on the actions taken by individuals, communities, governments, and international organizations to address and mitigate these issues. Efforts to transition to sustainable practices, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, protect and restore ecosystems, and promote conservation of biodiversity are essential to prevent or minimize the severity of an ecological disaster. Humanity will pay an extraordinary price full of suffering that we cannot buy our way out of.
Deforestation and desertification cannot be reversed by sending $2700-a-CO2-Ton tithe to the IPCC New Climate Catholic Fourth Reich of 1,000 years, but right now (Blue) Counties are aligning with (Blue) States aligned with Biden's unelected illegitimate EPA in thrall to Brussels, with stated plans to incrementally and illegally ladder-up the Tithe by 2030. How much is $2700-a-CO2-Ton? $5400 a year utilities tax and $28 a gallon at the pump. India and China are exempt. *Your children will be sold into slavery, like the first Dark Ages.*
You believe people have anything to do with climate change. If so you need to get educated. This is a natural thing, of nature. People can't take any credit for this. Get educated properly. 😢
@@deemisquadis9437 ?? Apparently you need an education. If you do not have anything positive or good to say then do not say anything at all. Shut thy trap and go back to sleep as you were.
@@deemisquadis9437 No. It's you that needs to get educated. Scientists worked out that increased CO2 in the atmosphere would have a warming effect as long ago as the mid-19th Century. I've seen newspoaper cuttings from the early 20th pointing out that if the burning of coal and oil increased unimaginably then we, humanity, would warm up the planet. By the 1980s climate scientists knew for certain that we were moving into that previously unimaginable territory. That's when I first came to understand the core issue. Scientists are more than aware how complex climate is, and in the '90s were giving worst and best case scenarios in which the best case involved only minimal change - but science journalists trumpeted their worst case scenarios as if the were confident predictions. Since then an immense amount of work has been put in on a very large number of aspects of the problem and if you were to properly educate yorself you would know better than to bleat nonsense on UA-cam.
Oeter Carter stated El Nino while occurring is still not strong enough to cause the kind of heat experienced worldwide, if true what is in store globally when the El Nino effect is expressed fully?... Thank You Jason for your research and transparency. It's greatly appreciated and necessary.
Most of the experts (read that as - all of them) still have not recognised that El Niño is no longer the El Niño we knew. It is now El la Niñeo. The standard old school El Niño had great warming of the equatorial ocean combined with cooling of the north and south tropic bands. El la Niñeo has heating of the equatorial waters AND heating of the north tropic band even as the south tropic band goes cool. This results is large changes in behaviour from what just good old El Niño exhibited. The warming of the northern tropic would normally be seen with La Niña.
I don’t know..I don’t think the Vikings were bothered too much by it about 1000 years ago when then inhabited and farmed on Greenland for 300+ years..something that cannot be done presently because it’s too cold
Thank you for this concise explanation of what is happening up there. Seeing all your data is fascinating and enlightening. Excellent explanation of a complex system.👍
Extrapolating, this will lead to a severe summer in 2024 and worsen food crisis, crop failure and forest fires in most of the Northern Hemisphere. We are into a big mess which will play out in the coming 18 months.
Signs & Tibulations! Send your Climate Tithe to Brussels like a good Gretian. Or is it Goreian? Will the New Climate Catholic Dark Ages be patriarchal or matriarchal? If you trans, will you still have to pay the carbon tithe to Brussels?
Rough presentation? It was very detailed and thoroughly explained with clear and understandably graphics and charts. Well done on such a complex topic. Thank you for the important work you do! Be safe!
Thank you professor Box for your work. It's much appreciated. I have a question about the AMOC: If the AMOC were to halt completely, how long would the halting process take? I suspect this vast and meandering conveyor belt would take quite a long time to stop. Do you and/or your colleagues have any thoughts about such an estimate?
I have the NSIDC sites, "Arctic Sea Ice News" and "Greenland Ice Sheet Today" bookmarked. I highly recommend these sites for anyone interested in the state of polar ice.
Great analysis, thank you Jason. Very interesting (and worrying) to see how the climate is responding to the ever-increasing temperature of the planet. I'm sure there's a few more surprises to come.
Is this much melt water on top of the ice sheet with continued high temps going to promote the algae growth? In a video some time back you were getting out of a helicopter commenting on the abundant algae growing. With these high temps, one can only imagine what is happening under the Laptev Sea. The clathrates must be melting en masse with the area looking like an introduction to a Lawerance Welk show with his bubble machine going full bore. The Yamal Peninsula is probably looking like a bomb cratered Ukrainian corn field with the pingos blasting away, methane is on the march! We fight the wrong war.
New subscriber. Long Covid sufferer who now cannot breath comfortably in this new climate reality of whole earth heat . Great information and I will tune in weekly.
..I don’t know…I thought the comment that we are at an “all time high for greenhouse gas concentrations “ to be incredibly dishonest. We all know that CO2 concentrations were many times the current levels when the earth had the biggest explosion of life that we know of. If anything, we are at historical lows for greenhouse gas concentrations during the time of multicellular life on this planet
@@steven4315 ..what is your concern?. ..btw..my comment was based on the dishonesty of the comment that of there never being GHG levels this high. Life on this planet thrived with much higher GHG levels than it is now. In fact, humanity thrived better with temperatures warmer than the base level the alarmists use
Embrace humanity's finest achievements; now we'll live to see----------- the end of it all, along with the sci-fi movie predictions of the past fifty years as Soylent Green "nailed" the time and dates back n '73! Charlton Heston and Edward G. Robinson played great roles!
If we can fly a helicopter on Mars, why not sensors mounted on devices capable of self-adjusting for snow depth? Money. This is important work, and could be sending us a signal about impending catastrophe. No end to my fascination for this subject, and admiration for those able present this information in such an engaging, easily understood manner.
I just found your channel and I am grateful for the detail and clarity of your presentation. It is a horrifying story. I am wondering if you have observed the elevation of your monitoring station drop over the years as the ice sheet melts? If the elevation of the ice sheet drops enough would this also contribute to an acceleration in melting?
"Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1840 through next week." (Mankoff et al., 2021). If you examine Fig.2 on page 5, you will see there would be no correlation with the exponential increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide (280ppm to 420ppm) and the change in the annual Mass Balance Sum shown in the paper. Indeed there have been periods of increasing mass of the Greenland ice cap in the 1940's, 70's, 80's and 90's. (Remember CO2 was rising all the time.) More recently Greenland Total Ice Mass Balance rate of loss reached its maximum in 2012 but the trend rate of loss has been diminishing ever since. That's while we've added 500 million tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere (14% of total human emissions). The average annual loss is 0.005% of the total mass. That's neglible. Come back in 20,000 years.
When I became aware of the issue of climate change 15 years ago there was plenty of evident for the reality of anthropogenic climate change. There was also plenty of evidence that the *risk* from climate change was extreme. We don't need hard and fast predictions or even irrefutable data, we need to better assess risk and act on it. Here's my prediction: people with all of the evidence available to them will still be denying climate change and our responsibility for it as they starve to death.
Melting has always occurred in the arctic during the summer under 24 hour sunlight. Nothing unusual. Explain this Jason: The hottest recorded temp, 134F, for Earth was on July 10, 1913 at Death Valley, USA. 110 years later on July 10, 2023 at Death Valley, USA the highest temp for that day was 113 F or 21 F cooler than the record high temp despite much, much higher atmospheric CO2
As a person living in Quebec, I have seen a lot of snow and ice melting. It seems to me that the process is definitely not linear. It does seem to accelerate, and there is a lot going on invisible, under the surface. Hearing you gives me deep misgivings, I fear sudden unexpected and large changes. Don't you chaps have snowshoes in your kit?
It's 10°C every night here outside Seattle and yesterday in the garden I broke a sweat when it hit 18°C, before North wind came up again. Magic CO2!! Send your carbon tithe to IPCC c/o Angry Climate Jesus!😅
@@robertmarmaduke9721- It as been a rather pleasant summer thus far on Puget Sound although it looks like a substantial warmup coming in early August. Not complaining, however, since most of the northern hemisphere has been suffering much higher than normal temperatures this summer.
Dear Dr "were fucked". Yes your reputation precedes you but in the most wonderful of ways. Question: If Greenland had a heatwave and Europe had a heat wave why in the name of God have I had to use a heater today here in the UK, we seemingly have had our summer squeezed out in place of a mild permanent autumn. I presume this is the result of weather blocking. Bloody annoying as I have gardening to do at the end of civilisation. As to poor Greenland, I saw a video clip of it raining on the ice sheet just recently. Cant be good. Much love and respect sir. Your vocation in life is a service to humanity.
Correlation with Solar cycles? You put those there?! Badass, brother! Thanks for saving me the hike... Long ways from Albuturkey... Watched it twice; great work, Doctor JBox!
Really nice cold wet weather here in Stockholm just now (August). Makes me so happy. Maybe we are cooling the world for good, at least here. I am so hanging for good old 18th-century snow in summer. Keep up the good work.
I just learned that kelp beds in the ocean are a sink for atmospheric 4 million tons of carbon a year. Has anyone looked at planting more kelp in the oceans to collect more carbon or is 4 million tons a very small percentage of the total? I'd love it if you could put a perspective on this.
There are people trying to work out how to reverse the decine in kelp. Others are working on reversing the decline of sea grass. Yet others try to save and extend mangroves. Others try to halt and reverse the decline of peat in northern hemisphere developed countries. Others yet are trying to see if there are grazing regimes that can halt the melting of permafrost. Heros, all of them, as are all those measuring and sampling and calculating aspects of the huge unintentional experiment we're conducting on or climate/biosphere.
Nice work. Your facts are undisputable, you set a good example for students in High School and College. The Global Climate Emergency should be a Mandatory Course at these grade levels.
Why not use surface temperature instead of air temperature to monitor melting? Because the former is more representative of the surface melting. (Using long-wave radiation to calculate surface temperature)?
Hey, the more comments, the better for the algorithm, right? Walking on saturated snow. Back in my younger days a hiked a lot on snow-pack. I down-hill skied as well, Snow exposed to wind and sun can be as solid as concrete. I tried to walk across frozen Granby Reservoir, thinking the snow would be firm. It wasn't. I figure the weight of the snow on the ice lowered the ice, allowing lake water to infiltrate the four feet or so of snow, saturating it. Yea, that could be deadly.
ENSO remains in its neutral phase, though. This isn't the El Nino; that'd be much hotter. This is just the new average for current CO2 concentrations above 420 ppmv. 2033 will be as much warmer on average than 2023 as 2023 is warmer than 2013. Fossil marches on.
A little-know fact is that the Arctic can get very hot during the Northern summer. The satellite data worldwide shows (according to Roy Spencer's reporting) the temperature anomaly for August 2023 was +0.69 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean.
Are there any? projections on yearly increases in ice loss /sea level rise being non linear and staying non linear as it pertains to -Greenland -Antarctica - land and grounded tidewater based glaciers and the levels of sea level rise these 3 systems will contribute independently am I missing any other contributor to sea level rise
I think that timing will be the only thing Guy is incorrect on. But for me that should not distract from the accuracy of his overall message. In addition to his own work and experience, he takes in the work of other scientists, digests it, and forms conclusions based off of the evidence available. Someone once said: "It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." As such I don't hold Guy's errors against him in making any, when the thing he's off about is only the when and not the what.
Not just Guy McPherson who was right, but Ted Kaczynski who was right. One more time: "The Industrial Revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race." But McPherson stood on the sidelines pleading with people to return to sanity and wringing his hands and saying: "Only Love Remains". 😔
Jason, what is the primary tool(s) you are using to generate mass balance? -Grace?- ....Is there a difference in when and where accumulation occurs? is there a -I don't know a term, call it,- wetness factor, and the internal energy that becomes embedded? Thirdly, does the transport of meltwater off Greenland come from new/different regions, and would/does that lend to further, or enhanced perforation, and or deflation extending the range where high impact anomalies can or do occur? Thanks, Johnny Cruzen.
Melting happening at midnight at over 6000m in the Arctic and not a hint of an emergency in Dr Box's voice. I respect the scientist immensely but if the scientists don't show any real alarm, how to we expect regulators to respond.
Regulators? Our government is bought out completely by corporations who profit from every single part of our current status quo. It’s legal to bribe politicians.. We are there. I’m talking about America btw..
When Greenland sheds enough ice and begins to rise. Good luck on the east coast. Especially those cities built on glacial till. (Hi new york) The earthquakes will be epic. 😊
"Antarctica was also in the news last month due to its leading role in promoting the “hottest day in 125,000 years” scare. The global claim of 62.6°F was the guesstimate product of a computer model from Climate Reanalyzer. It was heavily skewed by a ‘heatwave’ in Antarctica on July 3rd - 4th that saw temperatures soar in parts of the continent from -70°F to around -30°F. Without satellites, this localised rise would never have been detected in the past, calling into question the “hottest day” claims. Steve Milloy examines such claims every month. He argued that without the Antarctica spike, the global temperature would have been around 57.5°F, similar to the long-term figure."
I went on tropical tidbits total snowfall Greenland is the only place its snowing right now. Like 2 feet in snow will dump in places of Greenland by Aug 08.
Oh, we are prepping alright. The radical left is getting armed, people are becoming nomadic, its happening right in front of us. We know our habitat is being destroyed, but middle class privileged folk with easy lives have a rude awakening when the grocery store is empty ill tell you what 😂
Apparently the BOM hasn't declared a full blown El Nino atmospheric conditions are not right which is concerning when we get there this is a very surreal year!
I just want to know if the fishing improved with the increased river flows from the melting and if Hiawatha crater will be more visible soon. Only inasmuch humans have contributed to this, it will take more time to correct. So .....
In September 2022, sea ice reached a minimum extent of 4.87 million square kilometers in the Arctic. This is higher than the extent in 2007, which means the Arctic summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 16 years. It was almost as high as 1995. Summer 2023 is one of the coldest in several decades in the Arctic, and May 2023 was the coldest on record there. The Greenland surface mass balance (SMB) for the past 11 months is a massive but very normal 450 billion tonnes of ice accumulated. 5 out of the last 7 years have seen huge accumulations above the average (1981-2010). No relationship to CO2.
The sun has been heating both hemispheres at the same time for a while now. You see effects of the sun with every with natural disaster the volcanoes, quakes will keep reaching record levels and then we will see things along coastlines to do with subduction zones never mentioned before.
Thanks Jason.
Pretty heavy topic to send links to friends on a Sunday morning before 7 a.m!
Folks that comprehend or care to, carry a heavy burden.
polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20230723.png
I gave up on the burden a while ago. Have been professionally involved in climate policy for 15 years, and I’m only still doing it because it needs to be done. But any sense of positivity about things was abandoned many years ago.
Nothing will change, nothing will be done, no damage control will really happen. “I told you so” is not much comfort….
Why are many comments removed here?
Did someone simply have a dissenting opinion?
Polar Portal reports that Greenland has *GAINED* 400 gigatons of ice in 2022-23. Clearly not much melting going on.
Thank you for your efforts and insights, Dr. Box. You're one of the best. Stay safe out there.
Thanks for putting up these detailed reviews of the evolving ice melt on Greenland. Your presentation is concise and to the point and of course very concerning going forward.
If only we humans were as intelligent as we think we are.
We're so totally immersed in our silly little human world where it's all about one side against another whether different political groups, or different self serving empires, and we mistake that as reality when the real reality that lies beyond our humancentric civilisation is shifting at a drastic rate.
humans(not civilizations) survived much worse times, this wont be different
Fjb. Countries freeze, and unthaw. Its happend for thousands of years
@@per2 well unless the growing instability makes our political systems do something really drastic as they try to maintain a normality that quickly becomes unattainable.
We can be happy there's been no nuclear weapons used during conflicts since WW2, but what happens when things really deteriorate and you have governments really desperate to ensure their panicked populations have enough resources, or even those governments falling apart and the nuclear weapons ending up in the hands of some group that's taken over during that chaos?
@@kristina7901 You refer to the theory of the Ice Ages which has been exposed - by hundreds of sources of evidence - as conspicuous nonsense.
Since the billionaires have siphoned 99% of the world wealth into their control, massive poverty is rapidly escalating which results in more and more homeless people as more and more people and more and more countries are going bankrupt - worldwide - while thousands and thousands of high-rise buildings sit mostly empty - including high-rise residential buildings, high-rise commercial buildings and high-rise hotel buildings as thousands of mansions and palaces also sit mostly empty - which means we have an abundance of housing, we also have an abundance of food - if you don't believe it, go to your local supermarket and go to your local farmer's market - we also have an abundance of cars and trucks and SUV's sitting empty - if you don't believe it, drive passed your local dealerships - and there's plenty of cell phones and plenty of laptops, plenty of furniture, etc. - the problem is that the billionaires are hoarding the wealth - and since the billionaires want to control the world and control the people - while the people want freedom, privacy and independence - and since the billionaires have turned the control of their wealth and their advanced tech weaponry over to the AI - while the AI makes threats and brags about their secrets, we probably have little time left.
I noticed substantial rain forcast along a few parts of coastline on the radar a few days ago.
Thank you for your efforts, Jason .
And just an update, right now on 26th july (in Australia) , another larger atmospheric river hitting the southeast side , inline with Iceland....but a frightening large mostly rain blob over the north of island and Elsmere Island.
This is just on the satellite forcasts on the weather channel app.
It would make sense that the East Canadian flooding a few days ago would be part of that ocean heat system .
Faster than expected!
Sure is Daddy Doom! 🧙🏻♂️
@@jzsbff4801By the IPCC and the paid climate scientists.
Now, now, mustn't start a panic....
I really think Carl Sagan would be declaring a runaway greenhouse at this point.
i miss that mans voice of wisdom
Dr. Sagan was 01 of Dr. Box's childhood inspirations.
Carl Sa'tan would declare anything they pay him to come on TV to spew. Bill McKibben was a failed New Yorker writer until he hit on End of Days novellas, then changed his slogan to Climate CHAINS! and now he's a Vermont millionaire on a private estate. _AGW Cultism been belli belli good for McKibben!_
Sagan is within all of us... Eternal Beings, All is One
270 gigatonnes is 540,000 pounds, times a billion, kids... 67.5 quadrillion gallons, if my math worked, per year, averaged... If you're measuring millimeters of sea level rise, you're missing the point, buddy.
It's nice hearing from people who actually do measurements!
Issues such as climate change, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, pollution, and overconsumption of resources have already had severe impacts on ecosystems, wildlife, and human populations in various parts of the world. The extent to which Earth is heading towards an ecological disaster largely depends on the actions taken by individuals, communities, governments, and international organizations to address and mitigate these issues. Efforts to transition to sustainable practices, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, protect and restore ecosystems, and promote conservation of biodiversity are essential to prevent or minimize the severity of an ecological disaster. Humanity will pay an extraordinary price full of suffering that we cannot buy our way out of.
Deforestation and desertification cannot be reversed by sending $2700-a-CO2-Ton tithe to the IPCC New Climate Catholic Fourth Reich of 1,000 years, but right now (Blue) Counties are aligning with (Blue) States aligned with Biden's unelected illegitimate EPA in thrall to Brussels, with stated plans to incrementally and illegally ladder-up the Tithe by 2030.
How much is $2700-a-CO2-Ton? $5400 a year utilities tax and $28 a gallon at the pump. India and China are exempt.
*Your children will be sold into slavery, like the first Dark Ages.*
You believe people have anything to do with climate change. If so you need to get educated. This is a natural thing, of nature. People can't take any credit for this. Get educated properly. 😢
@@deemisquadis9437 ?? Apparently you need an education. If you do not have anything positive or good to say then do not say anything at all. Shut thy trap and go back to sleep as you were.
@@deemisquadis9437 do yourself a favor go eat more cow until you pop.
@@deemisquadis9437 No. It's you that needs to get educated. Scientists worked out that increased CO2 in the atmosphere would have a warming effect as long ago as the mid-19th Century. I've seen newspoaper cuttings from the early 20th pointing out that if the burning of coal and oil increased unimaginably then we, humanity, would warm up the planet. By the 1980s climate scientists knew for certain that we were moving into that previously unimaginable territory. That's when I first came to understand the core issue. Scientists are more than aware how complex climate is, and in the '90s were giving worst and best case scenarios in which the best case involved only minimal change - but science journalists trumpeted their worst case scenarios as if the were confident predictions. Since then an immense amount of work has been put in on a very large number of aspects of the problem and if you were to properly educate yorself you would know better than to bleat nonsense on UA-cam.
Oeter Carter stated El Nino while occurring is still not strong enough to cause the kind of heat experienced worldwide, if true what is in store globally when the El Nino effect is expressed fully?... Thank You Jason for your research and transparency. It's greatly appreciated and necessary.
polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20230723.png
Anyone's guess
Most of the experts (read that as - all of them) still have not recognised that El Niño is no longer the El Niño we knew. It is now El la Niñeo.
The standard old school El Niño had great warming of the equatorial ocean combined with cooling of the north and south tropic bands. El la Niñeo has heating of the equatorial waters AND heating of the north tropic band even as the south tropic band goes cool. This results is large changes in behaviour from what just good old El Niño exhibited.
The warming of the northern tropic would normally be seen with La Niña.
Thank you for everything you've done. It is so important to get these real data points to understand what's going on
Thanks for getting this to us I have been thinking about Greenland during this heat wave .
Me too! polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20230723.png
I don’t know..I don’t think the Vikings were bothered too much by it about 1000 years ago when then inhabited and farmed on Greenland for 300+ years..something that cannot be done presently because it’s too cold
@@antiprogpragmatist859 At that same time, wine grapes were grown in Scotland!
@@andaimhineach4131 ..that is correct. I guess history is inconvenient for the chicken littles when they’re trying to craft a narrative
@@antiprogpragmatist859 100%
Thank you for doing this; quite a good presentation. I hope you are finding ways to keep your spirits up in the face of what you are seeing.
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Just found this channel today, remember you from a couple years back. Thanks for putting all this out there!
Thank you for this concise explanation of what is happening up there. Seeing all your data is fascinating and enlightening. Excellent explanation of a complex system.👍
Extrapolating, this will lead to a severe summer in 2024 and worsen food crisis, crop failure and forest fires in most of the Northern Hemisphere. We are into a big mess which will play out in the coming 18 months.
Signs & Tibulations! Send your Climate Tithe to Brussels like a good Gretian. Or is it Goreian? Will the New Climate Catholic Dark Ages be patriarchal or matriarchal? If you trans, will you still have to pay the carbon tithe to Brussels?
2023 is an El Niño year. The graph is not linear but the trend is up. Next year might not be higher, but later it will.
@@videomediamtl997 It will be higher you are forgetting Arctic ice and slowing of jet stream.
33% censorship on this comment.
thx
Truly appreciate you making this information available. Excellent as always.
polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20230723.png
Excellent! Thanks for this and your previous work.
Rough presentation?
It was very detailed and thoroughly explained with clear and understandably graphics and charts.
Well done on such a complex topic. Thank you for the important work you do! Be safe!
Thank you professor Box for your work. It's much appreciated.
I have a question about the AMOC: If the AMOC were to halt completely, how long would the halting process take? I suspect this vast and meandering conveyor belt would take quite a long time to stop. Do you and/or your colleagues have any thoughts about such an estimate?
polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20230723.png
Over 11 years of heat, both from above but especially from below. This might be the summer of discontent.
I have the NSIDC sites, "Arctic Sea Ice News" and "Greenland Ice Sheet Today" bookmarked. I highly recommend these sites for anyone interested in the state of polar ice.
polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20230723.png
Great analysis, thank you Jason. Very interesting (and worrying) to see how the climate is responding to the ever-increasing temperature of the planet. I'm sure there's a few more surprises to come.
Very interesting information Jason. Thank you for the presentation. Keep on the good work!
I'm glad I visited Greenland in 1990, the people helped me so much. Greeting from Australia.
Is this much melt water on top of the ice sheet with continued high temps going to promote the algae growth? In a video some time back you were getting out of a helicopter commenting on the abundant algae growing.
With these high temps, one can only imagine what is happening under the Laptev Sea. The clathrates must be melting en masse with the area looking like an introduction to a Lawerance Welk show with his bubble machine going full bore.
The Yamal Peninsula is probably looking like a bomb cratered Ukrainian corn field with the pingos blasting away, methane is on the march!
We fight the wrong war.
Thanks, Jason.
slowly the sea is becoming less saline with mammoth consequence down the path?
New subscriber. Long Covid sufferer who now cannot breath comfortably in this new climate reality of whole earth heat . Great information and I will tune in weekly.
Cheers, Jason. Clear, concise, balanced and honest. What a refreshing change...
polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20230723.png
..I don’t know…I thought the comment that we are at an “all time high for greenhouse gas concentrations “ to be incredibly dishonest. We all know that CO2 concentrations were many times the current levels when the earth had the biggest explosion of life that we know of. If anything, we are at historical lows for greenhouse gas concentrations during the time of multicellular life on this planet
@@antiprogpragmatist859 yup
@@antiprogpragmatist859 I'm more concerned about levels when we had 8 billion multicellular humans.
@@steven4315 ..what is your concern?.
..btw..my comment was based on the dishonesty of the comment that of there never being GHG levels this high. Life on this planet thrived with much higher GHG levels than it is now. In fact, humanity thrived better with temperatures warmer than the base level the alarmists use
Thank you for your work.
How much habitable land is Greenland gaining each year?
Embrace humanity's finest achievements; now we'll live to see----------- the end of it all, along with the sci-fi movie predictions of the past fifty years as Soylent Green "nailed" the time and dates back n '73! Charlton Heston and Edward G. Robinson played great roles!
If we can fly a helicopter on Mars, why not sensors mounted on devices capable of self-adjusting for snow depth?
Money. This is important work, and could be sending us a signal about impending catastrophe.
No end to my fascination for this subject, and admiration for those able present this information in such an engaging, easily understood manner.
I just found your channel and I am grateful for the detail and clarity of your presentation. It is a horrifying story. I am wondering if you have observed the elevation of your monitoring station drop over the years as the ice sheet melts? If the elevation of the ice sheet drops enough would this also contribute to an acceleration in melting?
polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20230723.png
"Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1840 through next week." (Mankoff et al., 2021). If you examine Fig.2 on page 5, you will see there would be no correlation with the exponential increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide (280ppm to 420ppm) and the change in the annual Mass Balance Sum shown in the paper. Indeed there have been periods of increasing mass of the Greenland ice cap in the 1940's, 70's, 80's and 90's. (Remember CO2 was rising all the time.)
More recently Greenland Total Ice Mass Balance rate of loss reached its maximum in 2012 but the trend rate of loss has been diminishing ever since. That's while we've added 500 million tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere (14% of total human emissions). The average annual loss is 0.005% of the total mass. That's neglible. Come back in 20,000 years.
I hope governments are watching this. Probably a good time to panic now and crack on with carbon reduction efforts
Great work! Have you considered, that your water balance might be way worse after taking into account direct vaporization (sublimation)?
Thank you for your service, Jason!
May I suggest you use a green color scale with high being light green and low dark. Thanks!
Excellent presentation of a disastrous situation in the making.
... the heat just keeps coming.
Fantastic presentation. 27 years ago....would we have predicted this extreme?
Yes. But that’s easy to say now. It’s a lot easier to learn something when it’s in your face.
When I became aware of the issue of climate change 15 years ago there was plenty of evident for the reality of anthropogenic climate change. There was also plenty of evidence that the *risk* from climate change was extreme.
We don't need hard and fast predictions or even irrefutable data, we need to better assess risk and act on it.
Here's my prediction: people with all of the evidence available to them will still be denying climate change and our responsibility for it as they starve to death.
This is fascinating, thank you.
Will there be Moulans all over?
Thanks Jason. Great work
frightening, ferocious & fatal?
Melting has always occurred in the arctic during the summer under 24 hour sunlight. Nothing unusual.
Explain this Jason: The hottest recorded temp, 134F, for Earth was on July 10, 1913 at Death Valley, USA.
110 years later on July 10, 2023 at Death Valley, USA the highest temp for that day was 113 F or 21 F cooler than the record high temp despite much, much higher atmospheric CO2
Thankyou for the clear presentation.
As a person living in Quebec, I have seen a lot of snow and ice melting. It seems to me that the process is definitely not linear. It does seem to accelerate, and there is a lot going on invisible, under the surface. Hearing you gives me deep misgivings, I fear sudden unexpected and large changes. Don't you chaps have snowshoes in your kit?
It's 10°C every night here outside Seattle and yesterday in the garden I broke a sweat when it hit 18°C, before North wind came up again. Magic CO2!! Send your carbon tithe to IPCC c/o Angry Climate Jesus!😅
polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20230723.png
@@robertmarmaduke9721- It as been a rather pleasant summer thus far on Puget Sound although it looks like a substantial warmup coming in early August. Not complaining, however, since most of the northern hemisphere has been suffering much higher than normal temperatures this summer.
Dear Dr "were fucked". Yes your reputation precedes you but in the most wonderful of ways.
Question: If Greenland had a heatwave and Europe had a heat wave why in the name of God have I had to use a heater today here in the UK, we seemingly have had our summer squeezed out in place of a mild permanent autumn. I presume this is the result of weather blocking. Bloody annoying as I have gardening to do at the end of civilisation.
As to poor Greenland, I saw a video clip of it raining on the ice sheet just recently. Cant be good.
Much love and respect sir. Your vocation in life is a service to humanity.
My question is how much of the ice melting that you are showing grows back equally over more in the colder phases of the year?
Correlation with Solar cycles? You put those there?! Badass, brother! Thanks for saving me the hike... Long ways from Albuturkey... Watched it twice; great work, Doctor JBox!
Scary shit! Wake up humanity…We know that someday we will all pass away, but do we have to take every living creature with us??
Great information. Thank you for your hard work.
Thank you Mr Box!
Really nice cold wet weather here in Stockholm just now (August). Makes me so happy. Maybe we are cooling the world for good, at least here.
I am so hanging for good old 18th-century snow in summer.
Keep up the good work.
I just learned that kelp beds in the ocean are a sink for atmospheric 4 million tons of carbon a year. Has anyone looked at planting more kelp in the oceans to collect more carbon or is 4 million tons a very small percentage of the total? I'd love it if you could put a perspective on this.
There are people trying to work out how to reverse the decine in kelp. Others are working on reversing the decline of sea grass. Yet others try to save and extend mangroves. Others try to halt and reverse the decline of peat in northern hemisphere developed countries. Others yet are trying to see if there are grazing regimes that can halt the melting of permafrost. Heros, all of them, as are all those measuring and sampling and calculating aspects of the huge unintentional experiment we're conducting on or climate/biosphere.
Nice work. Your facts are undisputable, you set a good example for students in High School and College. The Global Climate Emergency should be a Mandatory Course at these grade levels.
Danish facts incoming: polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20230723.png
Why not use surface temperature instead of air temperature to monitor melting? Because the former is more representative of the surface melting. (Using long-wave radiation to calculate surface temperature)?
Hey, the more comments, the better for the algorithm, right?
Walking on saturated snow.
Back in my younger days a hiked a lot on snow-pack. I down-hill skied as well,
Snow exposed to wind and sun can be as solid as concrete. I tried to walk across frozen Granby Reservoir, thinking the snow would be firm. It wasn't. I figure the weight of the snow on the ice lowered the ice, allowing lake water to infiltrate the four feet or so of snow, saturating it.
Yea, that could be deadly.
Thanks
ENSO remains in its neutral phase, though.
This isn't the El Nino; that'd be much hotter.
This is just the new average for current CO2 concentrations above 420 ppmv.
2033 will be as much warmer on average than 2023 as 2023 is warmer than 2013.
Fossil marches on.
A little-know fact is that the Arctic can get very hot during the Northern summer. The satellite data worldwide shows (according to Roy Spencer's reporting) the temperature anomaly for August 2023 was +0.69 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean.
Are there any? projections on yearly increases in ice loss /sea level rise being non linear and staying non linear as it pertains to
-Greenland
-Antarctica
- land and grounded tidewater based glaciers
and the levels of sea level rise these 3 systems will contribute independently am I missing any other contributor to sea level rise
So it begins.Guy McPherson was right all along.
2026 !!!!!
I think that timing will be the only thing Guy is incorrect on. But for me that should not distract from the accuracy of his overall message.
In addition to his own work and experience, he takes in the work of other scientists, digests it, and forms conclusions based off of the evidence available.
Someone once said: "It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." As such I don't hold Guy's errors against him in making any, when the thing he's off about is only the when and not the what.
@@jacobgordon7998 Yeah the timing maybe slightly off but I do not expect things to not worsen in the next couple of years.
Not just Guy McPherson who was right, but Ted Kaczynski who was right. One more time: "The Industrial Revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race." But McPherson stood on the sidelines pleading with people to return to sanity and wringing his hands and saying: "Only Love Remains". 😔
Hardly. Guy is a clown.
Few or no areas to get ice core samples from way back.
Will the smoke coming from the Canadian wildfires have a measurable impact on the melt losses?
This is fantastic, keep up the good work sir.
And the Danes too! polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20230723.png
@@andaimhineach4131
Oh... so...
It's above average ice.
Nothing to worry about.
Nice! Thanks.
Jason, what is the primary tool(s) you are using to generate mass balance? -Grace?- ....Is there a difference in when and where accumulation occurs? is there a -I don't know a term, call it,- wetness factor, and the internal energy that becomes embedded? Thirdly, does the transport of meltwater off Greenland come from new/different regions, and would/does that lend to further, or enhanced perforation, and or deflation extending the range where high impact anomalies can or do occur? Thanks, Johnny Cruzen.
Coming from Vegas it's good to hear about a heat wave in Greenland for a change.
What a stupid comment...
So does this mean that we’re in some kind of trouble?
No. polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20230723.png
Melting happening at midnight at over 6000m in the Arctic and not a hint of an emergency in Dr Box's voice.
I respect the scientist immensely but if the scientists don't show any real alarm, how to we expect regulators to respond.
Seriously? Is that the best you can do?
Regulators? Our government is bought out completely by corporations who profit from every single part of our current status quo. It’s legal to bribe politicians.. We are there. I’m talking about America btw..
Isn’t the huge melt what causes the Atlantic to stop circulating? Can’t have a new ice age without a lot of moisture in the atmosphere .
upward trends are not good on this subject period?
So.. were are the summer lovers? do they think this is good?
when the melting ice is gone what will cool the oceans. if there is nothing to cool the ocean what will happen.
When Greenland sheds enough ice and begins to rise. Good luck on the east coast. Especially those cities built on glacial till. (Hi new york) The earthquakes will be epic. 😊
"Antarctica was also in the news last month due to its leading role in promoting the “hottest day in 125,000 years” scare. The global claim of 62.6°F was the guesstimate product of a computer model from Climate Reanalyzer. It was heavily skewed by a ‘heatwave’ in Antarctica on July 3rd - 4th that saw temperatures soar in parts of the continent from -70°F to around -30°F. Without satellites, this localised rise would never have been detected in the past, calling into question the “hottest day” claims. Steve Milloy examines such claims every month. He argued that without the Antarctica spike, the global temperature would have been around 57.5°F, similar to the long-term figure."
Thank you for the update. It's been a tough year and Mother Nature is just getting started. "Stay cool" indeed. 😟
Snowing there this morning
By the end of the century at least half of that Greenland ice will be gone.
In that case so will London and Manhattan, to name but two.
I went on tropical tidbits total snowfall Greenland is the only place its snowing right now. Like 2 feet in snow will dump in places of Greenland by Aug 08.
25th of July here in London and my boiler is on! If you sir were a lawyer you'd be called a shyster.
why they call this part greenland ?
Heat and climate change is an issue but basic essentials like food, water, shelter, oxygen, and safety will be the problem few are prepared for.
@@jzsbff4801 Don't worry just pray for god and government something will come through😆
Oh, we are prepping alright. The radical left is getting armed, people are becoming nomadic, its happening right in front of us. We know our habitat is being destroyed, but middle class privileged folk with easy lives have a rude awakening when the grocery store is empty ill tell you what 😂
@@jzsbff4801 , a good exit strategy?
Apparently the BOM hasn't declared a full blown El Nino atmospheric conditions are not right which is concerning when we get there this is a very surreal year!
its 69 in the southern tip with a huge area where its snowing in the central region
I just want to know if the fishing improved with the increased river flows from the melting and if Hiawatha crater will be more visible soon.
Only inasmuch humans have contributed to this, it will take more time to correct.
So .....
Not good news! North Atlantic temps are off the chart.
Doesn't the work of qinglin zhang et al 2022 show there has been no warming in greenland since 1958?
Very informative as ever from JB. Don't shoot the messenger
In September 2022, sea ice reached a minimum extent of 4.87 million square kilometers in the Arctic. This is higher than the extent in 2007, which means the Arctic summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 16 years. It was almost as high as 1995. Summer 2023 is one of the coldest in several decades in the Arctic, and May 2023 was the coldest on record there. The Greenland surface mass balance (SMB) for the past 11 months is a massive but very normal 450 billion tonnes of ice accumulated. 5 out of the last 7 years have seen huge accumulations above the average (1981-2010). No relationship to CO2.
The sun has been heating both hemispheres at the same time for a while now. You see effects of the sun with every with natural disaster the volcanoes, quakes will keep reaching record levels and then we will see things along coastlines to do with subduction zones never mentioned before.
tried emailing you, but went undelivered. Is your email still valid?
Looks very cold to me. 1-2C above zero! The rest of the year it’s extremely cold.
Know why it's called Greenland?
Suggestion instead of using metric measurements use both both Metric and Imperial forms for those like me slow in converting. Thank you
America chose to go its own way, including its corruption of the English language
Vikings had no complaints, they named it Greenland for a reason.
Yeah, to fool people. It clearly worked on you.
Wonder if this is the year of the blue ocean event.
I heard next year, not this year. We shall see.
Gee, actual researcher!