How Justin Trudeau won his THIRD term
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- Опубліковано 24 вер 2021
- Canada's prime minister just won't stop winning!
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My big takeaway: OOF
ok
oof indeed
Hi
*OOF*
How does a loser keep winning?????
"It did nothing, it was about nothing, and it cost $600 million dollars." Kind of just Canadian politics in a nutshell.
Pretty boring...
- The good kind of politics
@@jimmywest8684 ehh. Canadian politics may be boring, but its not because things are good in the hood. Its because Canadian politicians since Mulroney really are afraid to take action on anything, so we sit in a mediocre status quo while our geopolitical issues like the looming housing crisis, personal debt crisis, and the fact we are increasingly pushed to the backbenches in world politics continues to grow. Canada used to be a dynamic country that was very active in the world. Now we sit here in apathy.
You only wasted $600 million!? In the US that’s nothing!
@@ohio9499 Remember our economy is like, a 12th of the size. For us, it works out to about $15 per Canadian
@@ohio9499 well the recall election in california costed less and california has a larger population and gdp than canada.
I was so excited to finally get JJ’s opinion on the election. Unlike the election itself, it didn’t disappoint.
Re: the Green win in Ontario, I read the the Liberals backed the Green candidate over the NDP candidate. That definitely seemed like a strategic way to not get a NDP win that riding, as they could easier retake the seat from a Green than an NDP candidate next time.
@UCAXAFKeTfEBwtBgaT64ERFA yea what an a tool
An O’Toole
Nice insight and very unbiased.
And people are falling for the trap head first.
To be fair, the green candidate actually came in second in Kitchener-Centre in 2019, so it wasn’t like the Liberals just served it up to him.
Yeah, as an American, I was wondering what happened there since I assumed NDP would be the next logical choice, especially in the middle of Toronto, but that makes sense. Personally it seems like a failure to win that seat is a bigger indictment of Jagmeet Singh’s strategy.
The fact that a party got 5% of the people voting for them and still did not get eny seats out of 443 (5% of wich is more than 22) shows you how flawed this system is.
Sure, but what would be your solution to that? That 5% is spread out across the country and ridings are supposed to represent local regions.
@@owenchafer1083 use a popular vote instead, regional issues should be handled in provincial and municipal government elections
Here in America half the public flips out when someone wins the presidency with only 46% of the vote (versus someone who gets 48%). Meanwhile over in Canada you can become PM with less than a third of the vote and it's seen as just business as usual lol. Love how wildly different things are just walking over the border haha.
It's more that they flip out when the winning party got less votes than the losing party.
in Europe it can be even less than that, in Finland for example it can be with less than 20% 😂
The US president can do things traditionally only Kings and Emperors could do. Meanwhile, many PMs and chancellors get the boot the second 50%+1 in parliament want them out. It's not comparable.
@@Alias_Anybody The power of the US President is greatly overstated, congress is more powerful by far. Most of what the president can do can be stopped thanks to Checks And Balances. And frankly even much of the power recent presidents HAVE had, they weren't supposed to, and it is instead blatantly unconstitutional authoritarian bullshit like the flagrant abuse of the Executive Order far beyond the scope of what was originally intended, as well as a massive overexpansion of the executive branch and widescale corruption in the carrying out of said duties. And virtually all of this abuse of power and all this corruption is by one side of the aisle due to how completely partisan government staffing has become (over 95% of government employees in the capitol are now Democrats); these presidential powers would be greatly reduced if we brought government back to a more balanced state. But even given the current state of things, presidents are no where near as powerful as people think (or at least they aren't supposed to be).
US President has a lot more power. For example executive orders mean elections matter more. Other countries also use representative democracy which means that third parties hold seats so its very unlikely that a majority happens at all. Also coalitions are often formed between plurality and smaller parties which gives smaller parties a voice and limits the power of a low popularity government. In the UK which is another country to use first past the pole voting the leader has popular majority support most of the time and third parties exist allowing coalitions. So your comment makes little sense except to show how messed up American voting is
It’s interesting how you wish there were less Canadian parties. As an American I wish we had like at least a third party that mattered at all. There’s a popular sentiment here that if you vote for a third party you’re basically not voting at all
Sadly, it's the same in Canada
Well in our history we have only elected liberals or conservatives, but I wish we had term limits for the prime minister like you have for your president
Honestly I think term limits for everyone would fix a lot more than 3rd party but I’m not against it.
@@nickgennady I think term limits are good but that gives a lot of power to lobbyists I’m afraid.
@@GERMAN_ENGINEERING Dang I did not think of that. Lobbyists are ehh. One guy here on UA-cam who talks about "right to repair" lobbies a lot but he's not bad dude. I also think you can't just have people vote because a lot of people like in this case do not know the details of subject matter. But on the other side of things Lobbyists have there own interests and are corrupt as well. Very difficult world we live in.
Y’know, people talk a lot of shit about the American government system-often rightfully so-but it blows my mind how many countries give their leaders the power to call an election. I can’t imagine the chaos that would happen in the US if the president or house speaker had that kind of power.
If a US president had that power. We wouldn't have a US president. Because we wouldn't have a US. There’s no way we'd survive.
It gives the opposition the opportunity to gain control, so I don’t see how that’s a bad thing
As an American we're very accustomed to reflexively believing that our election system is one of the worst in the democratic world. I know that I am certainly frustrated by how "undemocratic" it can feel when parties that get a minority of the votes end up in control or how everyone feels forced to vote for one of two parties.
But then I look at Canada and see that the grass isn't necessarily all that much greener. Which is simply to say that every system has pluses and minuses, many of which you might not recognize until you see certain unintended consequences occur.
I still believe in electoral reform, but thanks to JJ's videos and the further research he's inspired I no longer believe in any sort of electoral miracle cure that will instantly solve all that ails us.
It is not that big of a power and you can lose quite easily if it comes off wrong
y'all have term limits tho, sadly, we do not.
JJ: "We have more parties than we need."
Me as a brazillian (with 32 oficial parties): "It seems nice to me."
as vezes eu me pergunto como qualquer político faz qualquer coisa.
In Pakistan we have 175 political parties 😂 but only three really matter
I'm Canadian and I'm embarrassed by how smug we are and self righteous.
As an American, I can say that having an election in the space of a month sounds incredible.
Yours only take three months.
That is definitely my biggest takeaway. There are many differences between Canada and the US where I'm not sure which is better, but I firmly believe we'd benefit from shorter election cycles.
@@JJMcCullough true, though the primaries take a year at times. But most Americans don't pay attention to them. Only political nerds like me.
@@charlieputzel7735 primary + campaign
@@JJMcCullough it's probably more like a year, for some reason...
Trudeau has been PM for almost half my life and Canada has gone downhill as long as I can remember.
So you’re saying that you’re 16 and don’t know anything. Noted.
@@justalecks1106what did Trudeau do which was great?
@@justalecks1106I'm 25 and I remember goimg stateside to get cheap shit.
I don’t think the solution is having less parties, I believe the solution is a Ranked Choice Voting system which will allow people to vote there conscious well only allowing people to win by winning the popular vote.
Edit: Thank you for all the likes everyone!
I think JJ would like to have only one Party in Kanada called the NSKAP.
Rank choice voting is a joke
@@acetorres8787 it really is just first past the post with extra steps. Needs to be a National list with a single seat per percentage allotment.
@@kadennelms8419 "with a single seat per percentage allotment." why?
If there are 349 seats and you get 10% of the votes, then you get 349*0.1=35 seats. I dont understand why 1 percentage point needs to represent 1 seat.
Also, alot of countries has a electoral threshhold. In Sweden it is 4%, if you get less votes you get no seats. Getting 5% will not give you 5% of the seats since those 5% is not 5% of votes for parties that reached the threshold. So a party who gets 5% might get 6-7% of the seats.
@@kadennelms8419 not at all. its a way to ensure that the party voted in is the party that is actually liked by the majority. in the UK, the tories tell the brexit party to stand down or else they both wont win. in aus, they can both run together, and whoever is more popular will win. combining that for local constituencies with the german MMP system means that the final parliament will be fully representative of the population, while each constituency still retains their own representative with the ability to improve their area.
As a German, i find it rather mind boggling how a lot of countries have an electoral system that so massively distorts the will of the voters while being tolerated by the public. I don't know if this is cultural, based on familiarity or just large parties not wanting to give up power.
Shout out to my fellow mixed member proportional bros on the other side of the world in New Zealand
This is related to the English idea of representation of a district. For example, in many english speaking nations, you elect your Congress or Parliament by having elected people from congressional districts/ridings who represent their district. Essentially, it is giving each district a voice in government. IF you have that, you have to allow for the possibility of the popular vote not always lining up with representation in government. For example if there were 5 districts and Party A won 2 of them by a combined 20 votes, and Party B won 3 of them by a combined 15 votes, Party B would get more representation in Congress even with less overall votes. The only way to make sure that the party with the most votes gets the most seats is to do proportion, which means that districts can no longer send representatives
Canada is a geographically huge country with incredibly diverse economies, social issues, and even culture. The defense for congressional representation is that it prevents regional interests from over-influencing the country through highly concentrated vote. The most obvious example would be Alberta, Canada's most right-wing province with a fairly heavy rural population and very high vested interest in oil & gas promotion and corporate subsidies. However the argument can be challenged considering that the Conservative party still remains fairly popular across the entire country. The opposite of this argument is that Ontario, Canada's most populated province, seemingly gets to decide the election each time without consideration for vested regional interests, however they leave out the fact that ~40% of the country lives here. In sum, how do you balance regional concentrated interests while maintaining balance with the entire country? The system we have doesn't seem to being doing this considering how big the seat gap was between the Liberals and Conservatives yet how close their popular vote count was, but I don't think that straight representation by population makes a lot of sense, either.
@@professionalgiraffe a more Americanized system would work lol
I don’t understand it with Canada, their system is just fundamentally undemocratic.
But i can explain why the US system is how it is. So the US is at heart a republic with each state gauranteed fair representation. The House of Representatives is a population based house while the Senate is state based. The house leans democratic while the senate leans republican. It’s all about the balance of power. The electoral college exists to force candidates to focus on more than 2 parts of the country to win, and it also leans republican. The goal was to protect the rights of the minority, meaning 51% couldn’t control the 49%. It has worked fairly well for 244 years tbh. One small hiccup in 1863 when the minority party got so mad they tried rebelling, but other than that the country has stayed pretty solid. Only 3 time has the loser old the popular vote become president too (Clinton in 1996, Bush in 2000, and Trump in 2016). If the US had a Canadian, British, or German system, the country would have torn itself apart a long time ago as they simply are not fair system, and you can tell by how solidly left those countries are.
@@professionalgiraffe I think Canada should do with the EU model. Sovereign provinces with free trade and circulation. And central body governing foreign policy, currency and citizenship only. Some provinces may be too poor to survive in such a system so some merging/annexing will be probably be necessary.
I like the theory everyone was so annoyed about the election that they just voted the same way they did last time just to spite Trudeau.
You’re not wrong. But mostly it’s because there are very few battleground ridings in Canada.
It must be awesome to be a backbench MP in a safe riding. Your opposition running around like crazy doing meet and greets and town halls and putting up signs and spending a war chest all to get less than 5% of the votes because they don’t have the correct meaningless label.
I did that lol not really to spite but i liked the setup as is
@@Bartonovich52 yeah like those guys in rural alberta they get 70% or more of the votes
@@SuperKing604 Would have been better with a change in government in site of 6 years of failure and scandals under the current government who have do nothing but lie to Canadians. Would have been money spent, if the result was different and the opposition won.
"Spite Trudeau" would have been to vote him out as Pm for a different party to form government. This was cowardly by voters to still trust the government after 6 years of nothing by lies and scandals. Yet again for 2nd time i a row, they lost the popular vote. More evidence of our rigged undemocratic system that benefits Liberals/governing party to give them 2x the seats except equal proportion based on votes=seats.
I have found in my own personal experience, one of the big reasons for lack of change in the Canadian political scene is the actual voting system. I know a lot more people would like to vote NDP or Green, but don’t because of stratigraphic voting and not enough people in the riding will vote for them.
because they are ..like myself unwilling to risk electing a economic and cultural dinosaur government like the conservatives
Spoiler effect.
@@johnmonteith156 The fact that Quebec vote BQ & get so many steats by virtue of the system mean the conservative barely have any chance of being a majority government. Mind you 2011 showed that if it's not BQ in Quebec it's NDP. Thing is no NDP leader has proven to unite and be as charismatic as Layton.
Also I'd rather have a minority convervative than LPC they legit are the worst of them all. They don't waste our money like the LPC does.
It's also pressure. People are pretty vocal about "wasting your vote" on a non popular party. I say vote how you really feel and don't allow others to influence you!
@@waterjade4198 Nope, vote how you want while the facists are united and will vote the same way.
I am not Canadian and knew nothing about Canadian politics - but now I know a lot more. Very educational ! Thank you!
Well, sincerely thank you for your interest in our country 🇨🇦
It's interesting how extraordinarily similar this is when compared with the politics we have here in the UK. Obviously there is a good reason that the two systems are so similar, but the trends you've highlighted in this video are so familiar.
Trudeau's decision to hold a snap election after two years and ultimately fail to make gains is reminiscent of Theresa May's failure to do the same in 2017. Admittedly, it does work sometimes, as Boris demonstrated for us in 2019.
The comparatively high vote share of the NDP, which results in a comparatively low seat count due to the distribution across the country, is the exact problem that the Lib Dems find themselves in every election.
The comparatively low, but highly concentrated, number of votes for Bloc Québécois is very similar to what happens with the SNP. Additionally, the SNP also manage to be the third largest party in Parlament despite only running in Scotland.
The greens having a single stronghold in Vancouver is very similar to their single stronghold in Brighton. Here, like in Canada, securing any other seats is seen as a win even though they get a reasonably high number of votes.
You shouldn't dismiss the effect of the People's Party either. Although they've kind of collapsed now, UKIP used to occupy the same space in the UK. They also would fail to win any seats, but the number of votes they took from the Tories was enough to put pressure on them to shift to the right in several areas. The conventional wisdom is that it was this pressure which led to the Conservatives promising to deliver the Brexit referendum. Ultimately, UKIP achieved their main goal without even getting an MP elected.
The other point of note is what you said at the end about fixed terms. We actually tried that, but with the caveat that a 2/3 majority could still vote for an early election. That ultimately changed nothing, as opposition parties tend to worry about looking weak if they try and avoid an election. It just led to a few weeks of gridlock instead, and the government are now in the process of repealing the fixed term parliament act.
These are excellent observations!
PM Trudeau's predecessor, Conservative Stephen Harper's government passed such a change, then called a snap election a couple of years later, making his law moot. Interestingly, he went from a majority to 2 consecutive minority governments.
Yeah same issues wherever the Brits were present at some point in history!!
The reason the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is completely useless is that, although a two thirds majority is needed to call an election under the provisions of the act, the government can just use a 50% majority to pass an entirely different act that overrides the FTPA and allows them to call one anyway. Which is exactly what they did in 2019 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019
i agree with much of your observations but I'd disagree with directly comparing UK 2017 to Canada 2021 as May lost her majority ( a far greater consequence) and there was effectively a second referendum on her Brexit deal expressed in that election.
JJ even though we disagree politically your coverage of Canadian politics is my favourite
Yup. It's amazing that I love his channel so much yet disagree with his politics. He does a good job at keeping things balanced and pointing out his biases when they come up.
I can say I would listen to a lot more right wing commentators if they were anything like JJ. He's even changed my views on a few things because he doesn't present his arguments in the same toxic disrespectful way most conservative pundits do.
Imagine that: persuading people by using respect and empathy in a calm and civil discussion. I've only heard of such a thing in legend...
@@thishandleistacken this is what conservatives look like in Canada? Jealous from the United States
@@chaosPneumatic same here. Personally, I don’t even like politics. Im still very new to it, but to me it has always just looked like everyone angrily trying to convince the other why their political stance is the best. JJ is the only reason why I even bother trying to stay in the know.
Hear hear
You are one of the best, if not the best, chronicler of Canadian politics I've seen. Impressed at your professionalism and attention to detail.
Justin keeps winning but its not Canadians voting him in😢
He wins because the elections are rigged
"Canadian election results are out- Everybody lost"
believe it or not, that's a great sucess for democracy
Yet again, one of the most engaging analyses of our election and it's underlying mechanisms I've ever seen. This video should be required viewing for highschool students!
I think Erin and that NDP leader look older than Justin even though they are younger.
This is the first time Ive actually heard someone say the word about in our stereotypical "about" Canadian way and I've Been living in Edmonton Alberta since 91.
"People want a system that preserves strong regional representation but also reflects the national will and these two objectives are just fundamentally at odds" - This is why "Mixed Member Proportional Representation" was recommended by the committee for electoral reform back in Trudeau's first term. It is the best system to marry those two ideals. You will still have local, regional representatives but the overall makeup of the house will reflect the national will. Of course, this will mostly come at the cost of Liberal power so Trudeau obviously reneged on his promise to bring about electoral change once this was recommended.
Bingo.
MMP would enshrine the broken party system. They should introduce ranked ballots (or range ballots) and remove party affiliation from the ballots. Back to the good old days when we had a thriving democracy :)
I like Mixed-member proportional representation, i am German and that is one thing i like about our political system.
However....
What JJ is referring to is the role of Quebec, under MMPR there is a local candidate, but the seat count reflects the popular vote, something that the BQ would be furious about. Under the current system the special role of Quebec is preserved, changing that could lead to new independence referendums and things like that. Also as you said the Liberals would loose, so they are not going to do ti anyway....but i still fear that could be a "topic too hot to touch".
The problem with this system is the fringe extremists views getting unproportionable power. There is a common mistake these days to want to throw out the old without a thought the the consequences of no recognizing what works. this how you create authoritarian systems.
@@johnmonteith156 can you explain how that relates to mmp voting?
I mean Doug Ford is a massive reason why a lot of Ontarians refused to vote for O'Toole (especially in the GTA). Most people think of "Conservatives" as one party and O'Toole backing Kenney's horrendous handling of COVID-19 cost him urban ridings in Alberta as well.
Hi verified
That’s not a rational reason to vote against O’Toole. That sounds like people making an excuse for doing something they were just going to do anyway.
@@JJMcCullough It's debatable how "rational" it is, but I guarantee you it played a part.
@@JJMcCullough I wouldn't just say that's an irrational choice, because unless the national conservative party rebukes one of their members, he still speaks on their behalf, at least to the general populace.
@@JJMcCullough don’t cry, don’t cry
I started talking about platforms with a co-worker. I was surprised when they said they hadn't read them and admitted "it didn't matter" as they already knew who they were voted for.
Cool man. Thanks. I dont follow Canadian politics but I found this very informative and interesting. So thanks. Bless you!
The German electoral system is quite effective in tackling problems like this one. Every district elects its own representative, but thanks to additional mandates that are given to the parties in accordance with the national popular vote, the share of seats really fits the percentage of votes they got on the national level.
MMP is great
@@jvanleeuwenCdn Reactionaries are reflexively opposed to things for emotional reasons. They are babies. I don't care what they think.
@@jvanleeuwenCdn this has the assumption, that there are rich people and poor people and you have no control over which you are.
I'm not Canadian (or German) but your MMP is quite well thought-out. I took a class in college (at university I mean) called "History of Europe 1914-present" and the professor told us of the problems that repeatedly plagued the Weimar Republic; and how they fixed them in your post-war constitution.
@@colinbisasky1134 I'm really surprised that the post-war constitution doesn't have a term limit on the office of chancellor after, you know... _him_ .
"It did nothing, it was about nothing and it cost $600 million." Okay, which comic book film are we discussing?
Seinfeld: The disaster movie
Excellent analysis J.J - a sense of objectivity and of genuinely looking at facts and results missing in so much political commentary. Would be amazing if we had someone similar to look at Australian elections, my prediction is that our next election could be very similar to Canada's - no change in the status quo.
There's absolutely nothing objective about this clown. He's a troll, and no one with half a brain takes him seriously.
Hey thanks, a lot of what this country is doing was confusing the hell out of me and this really helped me sort it out. Thanks again.
I actually laughed for like a minute when J.J. said “THE YOUNGS”
I laughed at all the clips of Singh trying to be "with it" before that.
Same. I'm closer to Singh's age than the demographic he's trying to appeal to, but those stunts make me cringe so hard, I almost wanna die on his behalf
Trust me, you dont want less parties. This just leads to "big tent" parties that arrogantly feel entitled to the votes of people who stongly disagree with the majority of their decisions.
"The grass is always greener on the other side" is one phenomena that will always remain true, I guess.
I’ll admit, we still have that (ie conservatives basically being the only right party) but at least our parties have to put a little effort into being competitive
our news is paid off propaganda with the media bail out fund. All the parties in the debate were authoritarian because Canadians are low info
@@MicahMicahel Well that’s a hot take
I feel like every time I've heard of a PM calling a premature election to win a majority in parliament it never goes particularly well for them.
Boris Johnson 2019
Should have waited, would have gone down the hill now....!
You’re the man JJ! Thanks for covering Canadian politics. UA-cam is saturated with so much American and global stuff it’s nice to get insights on the Canadian side!
For me small joke that continues to deliver funny is adding "the" to a group. "the youngs, the straights, the olds" hahah
Spent my first 18 years of life a liberal
Trudeau's failure in nearly every aspect has made me a conservative / swing voter
My personal opinion
tbh, that pushed me to NDP lol
rather not lose our economy with the conservatives at the helm again *cough* Harper
@@Awesome20801 yes that makes a lot of sense, not really.
@@Tricky-Dick im not even natively canadian and i understand your history better than you do lol
@@_viken who's history? Harper is famous in Canada for presiding over one of the countries best surplus budgets.
@@Awesome20801 You realise Harper brought Canada out of billions of dollars of debt and had us into a surplus for the first time in *decades* right?
WEF has manipulated this..there is no way we have that many sleeping ignorant people in this country...No way-No how! This BS needs to end!
One thing I learned from the Canadian election: Canadians call their electoral districts "ridings". I had to look it up, and it seems there are different names in English-speaking countries. Americans call them "election districts" or precincts; in the UK they're called "constituencies"; in Ireland they're called "electoral areas"; and Aussies and Kiwis call them "electorates". Fascinating stuff.
Americans call them districts, but not precincts. A precinct means something different-- it's basically a smaller voting area within a district, often used to better redraw districts and to report more detailed results from an election.
They are also constituencies in Canada that’s what it says in all our textbooks I guess the politicians are calling them ridings these days
@@etralin3dream983 we’ve always called them ridings in my 50 years
@@bobbyhulll8737 well all my textbooks in school called em constituencies
@@etralin3dream983 Not doubting that , who knows who wrote the text book .
JJ: Canada has too many political parties.
Germany: Halte mein Bier.
I'm Italian
Americans: You guys have other options?
@@alb8798 prove it
@@captainpep3 salve capitano! sono italiano e vivo a Roma, per dimostrarglielo parlerò di una grottesca vicenda che interessa la politica romana: lo sai che Roma sta vivendo una crisi che riguarda i cinghiali? Per qualche motivo Roma si trova invasa da questi affascinanti animali e quando dico invasa intendo letteralmente invasa. Una volta mi trovavo in un bar ed un simpatico cinghiale decise di entrare. Fu molto divertente ma anche spaventoso. Fortunatamente non sono eccessivamente pericolosi. La sindaca di Roma Virginia Raggi sostiene che la colpa sia della regione, in quanto è compito dell'amministrazione regionale occuparsi delle foreste e della fauna intorno Roma. Nicola Zingaretti, il presidente della regione, sostiene invece che i cinghiali provengano dalle campagne Romane e siano quindi un problema della città. Secondo il mio modesto parere questa è solo l'ennesima delle patetiche vicende che hanno riguardato la sindaca Raggi. La sua amministrazione si è rivelata un totale fiasco, non perchè non sia riuscita a risolvere nessuno dei problemi di Roma che sono complessi è difficilmente risolvibili con un solo mandato, ma perché alcuni di essi sono peggiorati. Roma e sommersa dalla spazzatura ed i trasporti pubblici sono un disastro, ormai è diventato un meme in Italia ma è tristemente vero, gli autobus a Roma prendono fuoco, non è la cosa più comune del mondo, ma è diventato tristemente un simbolo di questa amministrazione. Si vota domenica prossima e difficilmente Virginia Raggi potrà essere rieletta. Quindi sì, sono italiano.
@@alb8798 oh.
I love this video it is so helpful to explain Canadian Politics to Americans. Keep up the good work JJ. Love you ❤️.
You need to win 85% of Ontario's 121 seats out of 340 seats across canada, and you're more than half way to winning a majority government (170 seats) or almost a sure thing to leading a minority government. *It's ONE Province (Ontario) that controls the out come and put a Prime Minister into Office in canada.* In 2019 Trudeau Lost 90% of Canada, but won 95% of Ontario; Ontario put him back into power. It's not rocket science; it's not that hard to figure out how to win in Canada.
I have lived my entire life of 38 years in south western Ontario and the way you say “About” still makes me giggle.. 🙂
I have only heard the a boot accent from east coasters.
I think he putting it on
@@nobodythatyouknow241 I'm from NS and literally no one here talks like that, everyone says it's a BC thing here
@@cinquine1 lol I'm beginning to think its just a made up thing. I've been all over and haven't heard anyone speak like that naturally ever.
He's from Vancouver and nobody talks that way there either.
Why does he keep winning? Answer: Toronto.
@@grievuspwn4g3 can confirm, I live near that place and if you even say that the conservatives aren’t that bad, people will get HEATED
@@grievuspwn4g3 as long as doug is around, trudeau is guaranteed office.
Great Trudeau Ad (GTA)
I'm pretty sure the GTA is like 8 million people. So it makes sense that they're gonna be a big representation in government. People live in cities🤷♂️
it's called Dominion Voting Systems... head quarters in Toronto? It has worked so well here and in the States
Most proportional systems you could employ preserve strong regional representation and reflect the actual national vote. If a conservative wins in a riding with 33% of the vote how does that provide better representation for the 66% of folks who voted Liberal, NDP, Green etc. in that riding than if they had a slightly larger riding with a conservative AND a Lib, NDP, or Green rep?
FPTP is terrible at providing "strong regional representation". It's an inherently faulty way to approach democracy.
JJ just wants a $1 minimum wage and for no one to speak French ever again because he'd rather speak in a fake accent and suck off Bezos than try to learn French and understand the country.
12:42 Mixed-member proportional representation could do that. Have two ballots for regional vote and party vote and voters can cast their choices for both of those. The party vote will balance out the regional vote. It has worked in Germany and New Zealand as well as in the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments. It can also work in Canada.
It could be that your comment doesn‘t age well. The german system might produce a large number of MPs which are kind of unnecessary. The number of MPs supposed to be elected today is 598. The results coming in in about 18 hours might range in a total of 720 to 860 MPs!
@@uweschollmeyer9409 MMP doesn't require 600 MPs
@@SinnedNogara The basic question the whole thing boils down to is, whether you stress the proportional or the regional Element in MMP. The constitutional court has ruled that a distortion of the proportional representation of the party votes is acceptable only to a very limited range. That‘s why additional seats in parliament have been included to a very large extent four years ago. This time every forecast shows even more of that happening.
The issue is somehow related to J.J.‘s point on the discretionary powers of prime ministers in Canada (or most other british style governments): Merkel‘s party has blocked any more reasonable version of MMP for purely partisan reasons. But in the end, it doesn‘t change the overall result except for some microresults (MPs holding their too small constituencies) and it adds much unnecessary costs. So Germany‘s MMP is hardly a role model.
If regionalism is ignored, Canadians can voice any horror story to an MP to a party office in Ottawa.
@@uweschollmeyer9409 One thing you could do to change the system is to acknowledge the people that didn't vote. So if turnout is i.e. 80%, 20% of seats out of 299 remain empty, and the direct candidates from the-first-past-the-post votes will thereby be reduced as well.
Even though I'm American, I really enjoy these videos about Canadian politics. The outcome of this election wasn't much different from the 2019 election, but I find the concept of snap elections fascinating.
We have them in Ireland too but there not as frequent
@@DaraGaming42 Oh, I'll have to read up on that. Thanks!
I'm also American. I found JJ's channel through the suggestions tab, so since watching a few of his videos two years ago, I have been learning (on my own) about Canadian politics and feel informed enough to speak intelligently on the topic. I appreciate that he does his best to always give the most neutral view that he can
@@elineuenschwander4239 Yeah, JJ's great. I think I discovered him through Mr. Beat maybe just before last year's US election. He admits he has his own biases, as we all do, but he does a great job of showing all the facts and letting his audience decide what they think on their own. When I watch his videos, I feel they're always well thought out and informative, and I very rarely feel like I'm watching them through a conservative lens.
I am Canadian and am baffled. Felt like a fly by night election, if you could even call it that. SO weird. Doesnt inspire trust. At All
This video is bang on in its analysis.
I was a little confused because I’m not Canadian and the liberal and conservative colors are swapped (from Canada). Just something I noticed
@Zombie Skittles 2 They're not swapped, the entire world uses the colour red for left-wing parties and blue for right-wing parties, the U.S. is the one that swapped them around.
@@ginch8300 Ah. Thank you
@@zkittlesbutbetter no worries fam
In 2015 I voted for Trudeau, it was my first federal election and I was told harper was bad so I voted Liberal
In 2019 I was unhappy with the shame Trudeau had acquired for his numerous scandals, and I believed it was time for a change to conservative.
In 2021 I was disappointed in Trudeau for calling the election at all, and I didn't buy Otooles leftist rhetoric, and also didn't appreciate the parties making vaccination political, so I voted NDP.
behold, the rare swing voter!
The last time I voted it was Green, but I live on Vancouver Island, one of the few places they can actually win a seat.
Based
@Good Goy if you didn't vote conservative then you might as well have voted liberal. That was the only way to get that idiot out
@@korytoombs886 I wonder why Green Party leader Annamie Paul didn't run on Vancouver Island. She would have had a better chance to win there rather than in her native Toronto.
I’ve been waiting for JJ’s take on this. He’s my first source for analysis of Canadian politics.
Same
He's interesting both because he speaks well to non-Canadians and people who do not naturally enjoy politics and he's very entertaining, but he's just one very good source among many to me.
I appreciate that, despite having strong political views himself, his videos analysing politics always feel very objective and unbiased. Anyone involved in politics knows how hard it is to keep your own biases out of analysis enough that no political side finds your argument unfair.
@@diegoarmando5489 well certainly he’s not the ONLY one I like to hear from but he is my favourite for sure
You rely on a youtuber for political news. What has this world come to😭
We only have two parties in Canada.
Greens, NDP. Liberals and Conservatives are one Party and the other one is the PPC.
What the election really showcased was the Conservative party's willingness to cede ground in just about every conceivable facet of the political and cultural spheres. You'll never win any game you play if you always let your opponents define and alter the rules on a whim, and you'll never win an argument if you're letting your opponents decide the subject matter and define the language you use.
the conservative has never had a hard spoken loud leader, like robert borden in a long long time,
tool lost because he was meek and shy and did not stand out from the crowd, just compare him with trump
As an American I always thought that snap elections were one of the supposed advantages of parliamentary systems
Americans often think of them as a positive whereas non-Americans tend to be less of a fan
It sounds like a good system, but you have to remember that the snap elections happen if the party in power calls it, or other parties don't support the party in power. It used to happen often that minority governments would lose other parties and there would be elections. But recently, NDP (socialists) just blindly support Trudeau. So, even though Canadians are turning against Trudeau now, Trudeau won't call the election as he knows he will lose, and NDP keeps supporting Trudeau as they want to seem to be relevant, so we are stuck until 2025 with stupid Trudeau. In 2025, Libarals will lose big time and will have hard time coming back to power, I wonder if they will bring back Trudeau again like they did with his father.
The Political State of things right now.
Canada 🤦♂️
Australia 🤦♂️
United States🤦♂️
UK🤦♂️
New Zealand in the background all alone: *Sad noises...*
Good summary. To paraphrase former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, after 10 years in office the people get tired of you and want something else, so we will have Trudeau until 2025. So we may get Poilieve ,good or bad , due to Trudeau fatigue.
Just think about what would happen if Trudeau called another early election today.
Wouldn't have gone well
*Conclusions:* Nothing changed and voters don't even care about issues and stances anymore. They just vote for the same party regardless. This is very depressing.
or as Pres. Kennedy said "Party loyalty asks a bit much..."
I think this is also a big issue everywhere, because these political parties always run on polar opposite platforms, so even if you do care about the issues it barely matters. O'Toole was the first Conservative I've seen in a while even attempt to endorse some liberal ideals. But when parties are running polar opposites, we get kinda locked in whether we want to be or not.
You worried about climate change? Gotta vote a left wing party. Pro-life? Have to vote right wing. No liberal candidate would run on a pro-life platform.
O'Toole did try to bridge the gap but it was so "Out of nowhere" that people just didn't believe him (so essentially I agree with JJ).
Until we get consistent leaders willing to be a 'mixed bag' this situation is stuck the way it is...
Right, most people are not aware what is going on politically, nor do they actually look at party platforms to find one that more or less aligns with their values. Blend in a few wedge issues to sway the unsuspecting and impressionable, and you have a diarrhea soup.
JJ can we get a video on the German elections? Since it’s happening tomorrow, you can probably do an analysis of the results.
I don't know anything about German politics
Nazi party running again?
If you want a video on that... I actually made one this week! :)
@@JJMcCullough I’m not german but I wanna see this
@@JJMcCullough You didn't know anything about Indian politics either, but you made a video on that
Appreciate the knowledgeable commentary on the election. Not a whole lot of useful media coverage on the Canadian political system. Thanks for the hard work.
Also I think something like the electoral college wouldn’t be a terrible idea. To make it so all Canadian lifestyles, regions and cultures are represented in parliament.
next election will be either more Justiflation, or P.P.
Man, JJ, you always manage to present an analysis or an argument in such an interesting and respectful way. I always feel like I'm engaged in a genuine conversation.
So thankful that I found you all those years ago and to see you evolve in such exiting ways!
If you can tolerate an opposing view see my comments at the top of this discussion.
Another thought: Andrew Scheer tried to run as a Western Reform guy, and lost. Erin O’Toole switched to being an Eastern PCer - and not only also lost, but he got a near-identical result.
If the definition of “insanity” is doing the same thing twice and expecting a different result, then what is doing different things but still getting the same result?
These two heads of the conservative party sum up my view of the party right now. Scheer was an insider who lacked charisma, but represented the views of the rank and file. O'Toole on the other hand has more leadership and charisma, but feels like he is not the voice of the party itself.
its called deja Vu
Being doomed
It's not that clear cut, and the results were not identical at all. O'Toole actually picked up 7 new seats. The problem was that the PPC backlash cost him 9 old ones, and stopped him from picking up another dozen or so new ones. The Tories are between a rock and a hard place as long as the PPC are willing to play spoiler and the liberals remain charismatic. If someone figures out how to thread that needle and appeal to both sides, then they'll be the next PM.
The second time in a row the Conservatives won the plurality of the popular vote but the Liberals form government. And that's ok, they knew the rules going in. And I know that the left leaning parties combined got a majority, but that's not my point. The point is that the Canadian system allows for a party to win less votes yet govern. If the 3rd parties were a completely different ideology to the Liberals, then the Conservatives could have more votes but less seats. It's the same concept as the US.
I went to vote and they said I already voted. They filled out a form I had to sign. I wonder how many other Canadians this happened too
Did you sign it?
@@motherhoodsbeauty9279 I had to or I cannot vote
ive already decided if he gets voted back in one ore time im done with canada and im moving south.....im sick of being dragged through the dirt in my own country by someone who dosnt give a crap about its citizens
VIDEO IDEA: take the results of this election and plug them into a “potential” different system and see what the results would show. Obviously some assumptions would be needed.
Reforming the system:
Method 1: give the same seats by province but distribute them using D'Hondt's method (or other of the same kind)
Results 2021:
Conservative 118
Liberal: 115
NDP: 60
Bloc: 26
PPC: 14
Green: 5
Method 2: distribute all 338 seats using the same method at a national level (each voting counting the same).
Conservative 115
Liberal: 112
NDP: 61
Bloc: 26
PPC: 17
Green: 7
I ran the numbers from the 2019 election under the New Zealand/ German mixed member system and the result was still a Liberal minority although a smaller one. I intend the run the numbers on this election that way but I'm still sure the Liberals win because Alberta and Saskatchewan have only 48 seats between them and the Liberals will still win more seats than the conservatives in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario and BC.
I'm so gald you spent as much time covering the Bloc Québécois as you did with the other parties. Such a great gesture on your behalf knowing your views on Québecers ;)
He hates our guts.
I still enjoy his content for what it is.
yup the party with 0 and 2 seat got more view time then the third party in parlement, its like if you forget nearly 1/3 of the seat you wonder why they lose...
I'd say Canada does need electoral reform, because First-Past-the-Post is repeatedly leading to minority rule in your electorates and the federation at large. New Zealand once had the same problem. It became especially egregious from the late 1970s to the 1990s until our switch to MMP put an end to it.
1.4 million votes were scrapped Does this happen in every election and in such a volume
I voted...yes, I'm a Conservative in Ontario. The Tory won this riding, and everyone I spoke with agreed this election was not needed, nor wanted..
12:42 I think you should check out the German voting system! Here, we have 2 votes:
1.) Your regional representative (just like in Canada or the UK)
2.) The Party (a "state" list of party members to be more exact)
=> The number of seats in Parliament are proportional to the actual share of votes and every constituency has their representative.
Btw, as you probably already know, there will be a General Election here in Germany on Sunday(tomorrow), and that's gonna be super interesting after 16 years of Merkel and 12 years of the same coalition government.
How much of the popular vote did Merkel get
When Trinidad and Tobago was becoming a republic in the 70s, the commission on constitutional reform proposed this system. Sadly it was rejected and we still have the old first-past-the-post system.
@@JJMcCullough 32.9%
@@JJMcCullough Why? This will be the first election after Merkel.
Edit: I just read on a different comment you don't know much about German politics - no problem!
Is there a minimum 5% threshold like in NZ?
Dominion!
Because of Toronto and Vancouver pretty much. Big metropolitan areas only ever vote one way.
The issue isn't so much needing larger parties, as it's Canada getting over the taboo of coalition governments. European elections usually lead to minority governments as well, yet parties are able to set aside their differences to form a coalition government.
@@teriekwilliams2828 bruh
The coalition governments are not democratic as you get two very unpopular parties that will form a government over a popular government that just barely got a minority government. That's straight up theft of power.
@@teriekwilliams2828 Speak for yourself. The most productive government we've had in my lifetime here in Australia was under Julia Gillard with Labor being a minority government and having to form coalitions with a number of independents. Unfortunately a number of their better policies got scrapped or screwed up by the subsequent Liberal/National coalition government under Tony Abbott.
@@teriekwilliams2828 bruh.... they actually represent *ALL OF US* in coalition... everyone eats the pie, even though the bigger minorities get 1st pick cause... well... they got it by the will of the ppl????
@@Peglegkickboxer lol what? It's more democratic because the government is represented by all different kinds of voters. Whereas having only 2 parties only represents one and turns elections into sporting events like you see in the US.
J.J., I have thoroughly enjoyed this run of videos all themed around the election but analyzing it in different ways. I'd love to see you take on more elections around the world or even non-political Canadian events in a similar way- though for now I'm sure you're kinda sick of it.
Hey it’s the guy who did the Israeli elections video.
@@arjunamin9399 what israeli elections video? id love to find similar content like this but about israeli politics
@@SlantyOlis ua-cam.com/channels/hm6ruT0nyR-6BceX6qpgdg.html
@@SlantyOlis What he said
"... stagnant nature of Canadian politics..."
*laughs in February 2022*
What happened?
@@THEFabianValenzuela The trucker standoff?
@@nonmagicmike723 Oh
Maybe preferential voting could help. There's a great video by CGP Grey explaining it.
Perhaps getting rid of the "first past the post" system would be a better system.
10:00 “Who has established a personal fiefdom on Vancouver Island and will hold that seat for the rest of her life”😭😭
Yeah, I don't know about that one, she was down to 37% this time, which was quite a drop. That riding had been Conservative in the past before she won it.
The fundamental problem in Canadian politics is that out of the three big parties, two of them mostly refuse to try to court anyone outside of their core voter base (and as O'Tool's ousting shows, even attempting this will get you attacked by your own party). The NDP consistently refuse to explain how they would achieve their goals, or to otherwise provide realistic plans in favour of broad sweeping declarations that probably cannot be realized, while the conservatives consistently maintain outdated positions, both socially and economically, in defiance of facts, that guarantee 60% of the population would never ever consider voting for them.
The result is that the NDP and Conservatives are mostly too extreme of a difference for most voters to consider even if they dislike their normal party this time around.
I think Canadians are ignoring the issues in front of them, in blissful ignorance so they just voted what they always voted, it's really sad actually if you ask me
While, I agree proportional representation of the national electorate is important, I don’t think having fewer parties with a wider range of opinions within the party is a good solution to that. The two-party system we have in the US has both parties with a relatively diverse spectrum of opinions within each party (despite what Democrats may say about Republicans and visa versa). Yet, if anything, this diversity has voters of all stripes becoming both increasingly polarized while also increasingly less trustful or enthusiastic about either party. FiveThirtyEight had an article that explains this issue quite well called Why the Two Party System is Wrecking American Democracy.
Republicans do not now. The majority of republicans have gone full extremist now which is why democrats have learned now that whatever the disagreements they may have with a democratic candidate to always vote democrat in every ballot because if they divide their vote the republicans who are united in their extremism will all vote the same way to the most extremist candidate. .
@@lawtraf8008 I think it is fairly clear that the Republican party has been tracking rightward basically since Reagan. They’ve become so successful as to force the Democratic party rightward (at least economically) throughout the Clinton era into the Obama era and up to the present day. Currently, the Republican party has a clear balance toward a populist, nativist, authoritarian ideology that is far-right. But, I would counter that there are many party members that still track moderate, whose voices are now just less important. People like Mitt Romney, Chris Sununu, Susan Collins, are all examples. Even Kevin McCarthy had been seen as a fairly moderate republican in the past. That last example illustrates the danger of having a two party system because the extreme wing of the Republican party has caused moderates to become more extreme in order to hold onto positions of power. A multiparty system isn’t completely immune to this happening, but it would likely cloister institutional power in the hands of the moderate parties who could differentiate themselves from the extreme wings of the political spectrum, rather than simply the current left-right divide.
I would like to mention that political chaos doesn't just exist in America. In Germany, its government has to deal with a party in the coalition rebelling against the rest, and the Netherlands' government recently collapsed because one policy couldn't be decided upon. Not to mention that these governments take months to form, which is especially bad for national security - the delays in the 2000 election likely had an effect on why the government failed to stop 9/11, as forming the government took longer. While polarization may be a massive problem in America, it's not much better in countries with proportional representation.
I think regional representation is kind of smoke and mirrors at this point. How often does a MP vote against their party? But then again I'm very supportive of voting reform.
Sadly, you're right. MPs are supposed to represent their constituents views to the government, not vice versa. Party-line voting is a menace.
@@CanImperator but dude if they don’t vote in party lines, they won’t get promotions + will be treated badly in general by their party
@@CanImperator are you taking about all their constituents, or just the ones who voted for him/her? Our party systems don't allow much room for independent thought.
I think it would be good to have two MP representing the area. If one party wins over 70% of the vote, then two MP from same party goes to Parliament. If it's more like 50/50, or even 60/40, then one of each winning party goes to Parliament. Like one conservative and one liberal. I think that would represent each neighbourhood pretty well and also on a national scale? And possibly redraw the electoral district map every time census is complete based on actual population. Though, it would mean a whole lot of people sitting in parliament arguing about stuff, eating away our tax dollars lol...
@@mayloo2137 Also sadly true. As Rick Mercer said "Once they're sworn in, it's the last time they think for themselves"
Wow i feel like this video aged real fast, with the trampling of our (the people's) rights that is happening right now. I really wonder how the future will see this man.
(For the record, i didnt care about the trucker protest all that much. Kind of dumb to bother protesting something thats probably ending this spring or summer.)
I do however care about my rights.
Is the book going to come out soon? the Canadamon one
Excellent Canadian election sum-up as always, JJ ...my one disagreement is we need MORE parties (with seats, preferably) in a healthy parliament....not less parties.
Lex! My man.
Yeah, I may be biased as a European, but PLEASE don't become like your southern neighbor. The world doesn't need another cringy 2-party system.
@@FairyCRat ya, I find it very odd that JJ floated the idea of fewer, larger parties considering he knows well how the two party system in the US has contributed to polarization.
I can barely understand the current party’s much less agree with any of them
@@thomasgeschke9553 Conservatives know the only way to win the game is not to split the vote, that's FPTP plus FPTP has many other conservative friendly attributes such as letting fewer voices speak differently than mainstream and the mainstream is the conservative's bread and butter.
This election was literally the friends we made along the way
REFORM! - Preston Manning
Nice shirt btw!
6:00 Prince Edward Island is very much this way, where "Team Red" (Liberal) and "Team Blue" (PC) have little daylight between their ideologies, and there is tremendous "brand loyalty".
The whole country is like that because human nature is like that. Read some Haidt, it's good, if a little depressing lol. The ideological divide was extra annoying this year because libs pretended Trudeau was in the right for calling this election and that speaking up about it was "disrupting unity". That and the newly imported (American) conspiracies on the right.
The intuition before reason was just extra bizarre this year overall imo.
It's not unheard of in the Maritime provinces for business partners to have one run as PC and the other Liberal for the legislature.
This is an amazing well researched and investigatory analysis. Glad I stumbled upon this channel 2 weekends ago in the #Shorts Section of UA-cam. I've already made it through half your content I think!😂
600 000 000$ gone up in smoke. Damn fool!
I really like how you approached this and as an American I can agree I see the same thing in America people people are tribal and I think it is damaging democracy people don't care what politicians do at all, just what color they are.
JJ as someone who studies government I think you hit on something very crucial in a big country like Canada that I’d love to hear you share some thoughts on following this election: people wanting more accurate local AND national representation, or people just generally being unhappy with their electoral system as it currently stands. That’s been a big fight in the US and the UK for some time now too, and I think it would really be interesting to get your take on some proposed fixes.
I see a lotta comments here talking about Mixed Member Proportional (and for anyone who doesn’t know and wants to have their minds blown I’d definitely watch the German elections tomorrow. Lucas Bender just put out a great video on the German party system which will get you up to speed!). But there’s also many, many other ideas for electoral reform like Spain or Italy, which use a list proportional system, or Australia’s AV system, etc. so I’d love to hear what you have to say!
Thanks for the recommendation on the video about German politics, it was very informative.
Many Albertans, and Western Canadians in general, believe that the country is too large. Our Western votes rarely have an impact on elections, which are increasingly decided by urban Ontario and Quebec. Western Independence would turn our regional representation into national representation. We could actually have votes that count, rather than being ruled by someone 3400 km away who we didn't vote for.
In New Zealand we have a Mixed Member Proportional system. Which combines electorates and the national vote.
Democracy working as intended
How are the votes handled,combined ,stored,transferred?Have the software been vetted and by whom?Security is another big problem,who secures the systems?How often are they checked?