lolno. Intel aren't allowed to sell to china aka the biggest market in the world while at the same time have to cope with stupidly high fed rate propping USD into stupidly high position. Of course their revenue earning would not be up to par. Their problem is literally big brother Mark my word, nvidia won't be much different
@@ZETA14.88 intel can sell to China... CPUs aren't blacklisted, it's GPUs (only high ends) that are. What they can't sell is the x86 architecture but it's not even a relevant architecture anymore, nowadays people are going ARM even for desktop and China is pushing hard for RISC-V
Intel is never going away, the worst worst worst case scenario is AMD, Nvidia or Qualcomm would acquire (or would be arranged to acquire) them. I don't think United States (the country itself) would allow Intel to be wiped out from the face of earth as it would be an embarrassment to the likes of China.
@@nk2012 Their bonds are still investment grade. Intel is going to be around for some time but the stock will likely not recover. As long as they make their bond payments I will be happy but the bonds will also not produce capital gains on lower interest rates.
As an Intel employee who recently joined the company as GPU design engineer. I can tell you that inside the company we are taking GPU market very seriously and increasing the hiring in this segment also thinking of pushing new Architectures in the future. As an employee I'll try my level best to get my part of the act. But the manufacturing end will leak money for next 2 years or so till they ramp up the scale
brother come down ! As an Intel employee tell your guys from the CPU department that they should first produce proper CPU chips, where proper quality control takes place!!!. And when you have recovered from the damage that was done a long time ago, you can think about GPUs. big brain time 😂
@@BasicBeach89 unfortunately they are in different division. I'm in GPU and AI domain. I heard about this and tried to raise this in today's broader meeting. But ofcourse u know how they'll give some boiler plate reply 😞 I was disappointed by the news myself
@@BasicBeach89 also I'm not in any managerial position or something to do cross department coarse correction. I'm just an RTL design engineer who joined the company 2 months ago and all of my work goes to working on the GPU IPs
@@bhuvaneshs.k638 all good. I didn't mean anything bad to you.. I'm just disappointed with Intel and their CPUs. Because I have a 13900k myself and it's been running with the BIOS default settings for 1.5 years and I can tell you one thing, despite my custom water cooling, the thing gets hotter than a volcano... how could Intel miss that?? like how? Blame the motherboard manufacturer and then find out that the microcode is flawed from the ground up! WoW. Is it now like with game manufacturers where they sell beta CPUs to a full finished product and customers then try to fix the CPUs afterwards by reporting errors to Intel?? I don't understand the world anymore🤧
In addition, the idea of P-cores and E-cores is a brilliant , if it only worked properly. Download Process Lasso yourself if you have an Intel 13th-14th generation and look at the work distribution of the respective cores while you play a game or any program that demands a lot of CPU power. It doesn't even work properly....
@@Topsquadjapani’m gonna buy intel, i think it’s a great buy currently. i just dont expect to turn profit within a week or few months, im willing to hold for years. im betting that once newer Intel US fabs open and they have a year or two, they’ll introduce cutting edge chips.
I just see intel as a horrendous value trap. Just because a stock has been discounted horrendously doesnt mean its a good buy. They failed and suck in all areas. I’d much rather buy something like amazon or crowdstike that are market leaders, grow exponentially yet are discounted for dumb reasons
@@iCozzh also intel would of made a nice profit , if their were not expanding .. they made 12 billion one 3 months and call that dead ..fxck out of here
A lot of people say that Intel's foundry would NEVER copy designs from others....because that's suicidal for business. It's called "gleaning" information. WHY WOULD anyone spend billions in latest R&D only to hand the blueprints over to one of the fiercest competitors?? A.I chips? GPU? Server chips? Mobile chips? I mean you have to be crazy and naive to do that. Intel says you can "trust us" because they're "separate" companies. Smh. This I fear the most, is where INTEL went "all out" but went into tunnel vision. The thing about these FABS....if you aren't constantly making money from them, they will become your BIGGEST profit killer. The maintenance alonge on these machines, will be in the millions annually.
Intel brand of reliability is also being hit hard with the 13th and 14th Gen CPU issues. It is bad news when Datacenter companies jump from I9 CPU to AMD.
Just wonder why data centers had not switched to AMD earlier. AMD CPUs have incredilble number of cores and super data center friendly for economics reasons. That will benefit the customers as well.
Wait until it's below $10, then take out a sofi personal loan and max out all your credit cards so that you have $700k and invest it all in deep out of the money call options expiring in 6 months. Thank me for your yacht later 🙏
I have been wondering for years how Intel can stay in business and the stock not crash. Now I know, it is because people who think they know how to invest push money into the stock. I am glad they are losing tons of money, they had no business making it in the first place.
Good job, I'm thinking whether to wait to average down or buy them now but i don't see any short term change yet. Did you check out SPCE and a potential turn around?
It does not recover, the only it comes back if there's a 20 Billion dollar bailout or something of that nature. With no intervention the company goes bankrupt. All you need to do is analyze their balance sheets, they barely have any cashflow and they have double the employees of nvidia.
When everyone tells you to dump Intel and buy NVDIA, probably it's right time to buy Intel as a contrary bet. This has worked for me several times. Just keep a view of holding them for at least 3 year and ther is chance you will double your investment.
They take a large L, tell short term shareholders to piss off, and revisit below $10 after axing financial engineering and investing into massive capex and R&D. Or they can just gradually fade into irrelevance sucking up tax payer money.
What is the similarity between Intel and Boeing? They're run by bean counters. Once you get rid of top level engineering management and replace with bean counters, it's all downhill literally.
"$50 billion(Chips Act's budget)? well, that is a good start" said Morris Chang, TSMC founder, to Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, in 2022. You guys have no clue that $50 billion is just an appetizer in the chip manufacturing.
I believe that the most optimistic scenario you mentioned will not happen. According to Intel's latest Lunar Lake CPU architecture diagram, Intel Foundry is not involved in manufacturing any core parts of the chip. We do not see Intel 18A, and we don't even see Intel 3. This proves that Intel Foundry cannot ensure the yield rate of its own products, making it impossible to scale up production. The current profits of Intel Foundry are still primarily provided by Intel 7. This means that the advanced process nodes cannot provide reliable production yields.
Dude are you lost .. the foundries take years to make .. they now have two high na machines .. that tsmc does not have , these take even month to install .. Ohio foundry opens 2027 .. idk what ur smoking but all this takes years
@@thepunish3r735 Intel needs longer to figure out how to use them given their lack of experience with ASML machines. They'll still probably have terrible yield. At this point you can't trust Pat's word, he's clearly a snake oil salesman.
@@thepunish3r735 I believe you haven't grasped the core issue. High NA does not guarantee that Intel will gain an advantage over TSMC. TSMC hasn't immediately adopted High NA due to costs and the fact that existing technology can achieve 2nm without the most advanced lithography machines. Even if Intel successfully produces Intel 14A using High NA, if it doesn't have any significant performance advantage over N2B, customers won't pay for such high-cost technology. Don't forget that TSMC's first-generation 7nm was completed using DUV, while it took Intel five years to break through to 10nm using DUV. Moreover, regarding the Ohio factory you mentioned for 2027, don't forget that this factory is planned to be operational by 2025. Given Intel's current capital expenditure reduction, do you really think the 2027 timeline can be guaranteed? Without continued subsidies, I believe the progress of the Ohio factory will be further delayed.
@@hamadayoko oo their is soo many what ifs and I know exactly the issues they face .. they have made the 5 nodes in 4 years goal .. they are way behind on servers and ai .. they have been trying anything and everything to make the high na production cheaper and have plans.. I know none of this is guaranteed…. But I seen companies like Apple and Tesla in worse condition pull it off
@@diamondlion47 correction ! they helped make the machine ..they have many plans on how to make it cheaper to mass produced ..caz it is more expensive to make compared to the older model
Intel is fast becoming an acquisition target. It is not beyond expectation that a competitor and/or VC will buy Intel for its IP and other assets. There is probably a strong, profitable core business in Intel still but it requires drastic surgery to realise that. To be fair to Pat, he is fighting a couple of decades of Intel’s previous complacency and under investment in R&D. I believe (sadly as an ex employee) that Intel needs to stop thinking in terms of being the market leader (not sure it is anyway) and transform in to a lean disrupter like AMD was several years back. This means focusing on what they are good at and dumping the rest. For example, is Intel’s in-house FABs really a competitive advantage anymore? What about investing in ARM, RISC V, Graphine technology? Intel is trying to do too much and it simply does not have the resources anymore.
If Intel keeps being obsessive about investing in their unprofitable foundry business, they're going to be the next Kodak very soon... Jack of all trades, Master of none..
@@romant8596 their foundries are going strong .. 2 high na machines now .,how many does tsmc have …zero …they are going strong .. take 3-5 years to build
@@thepunish3r735 So what? TSMC spends more, 30 billions per year, and they already have 92% of the market share in advanced chips. Intel is not even a top 10 foundry, they need to focus on what they're good at.
I would agree to you, but there is expertise issue. To drop one area and invest to another you need either to grow expertise by doing several years bad products or hire engineers that already have related experience. 1s option is not for Intel because Intel already looses money (investing to fabs). 2d option as well - they will have to "buy" a lot of people with experience and do competitive products from the scratch hoping first or second generation will be better than others analogs. So I believe Intel is doing right think in the situation it is in, there is no easy solution
Yea man unless do don't do a EVGA intha GPU sectors..gen thy all ag tolti good to Bay Intel AMD or Nvidia .. intha log hall . I've do not all ar acesebel as I tha tha momnet .so yea ... Etc
Miss the ARM CPU entry into the PC market recently by Qualcomm and probably soon by others. This will put even more pressure on the margins for Intel core product.
@@diamondlion47apple? are you serious you cannot compare closed vs open however you can compare the performance doesn't matter if it's only in their products though
@@diamondlion47 AMD missed the boat with DPU's and has for the moment no answer for a ARM based CPU besides the Ryzen. Yes Qualcomm has many issues and you are right the ARM CPU is too expensive for the moment. But the feasibility has now been shown for the PC market reactions are mostly positive from suppliers and press so Microsoft + partners have to work on improvements. I'm sure other players will now also come into this market soon to bring the cost down.
Intel is very reluctant, to say the least, to get into any RISC architecture, such as ARM or R8SC-V. True that the PC business are reluctant to go that direction, with the exception for Apple. But even so, it's a disadvantage to be locked into an maybe obsolete architecture. Apple's ARM-based CPUs seems to show the way. If AMD would do the same, Intel would probably fall behind, reluctant to drop their x86 architecture. It's kind of a Kodak situation!
I love my Intel stock and I keep buying more! Their new 7 layers factory will leap-frog all the competition for even one of the many reasons: That foundry will be the only 7 layers capable foundry. Loving it! Even TSMC foundry is limited to 5 layers, and one does not build a new foundry "overnight". 🙂
I would say one problem is intel does not have arm lisence and second intel and foundry is problematic cause intel is also a rival against other manufacturers and secrets of other comes to them via manufacturing competitors processors and it is problem. Direction is toward arm based processors cause those are more power efficient than x86 and cheaper to manufacture, intel problems are complex.
To ace calculus, you need to first pass trigonometry. All advanced node manufacturing will be outsourced to TSMC. Intel has very little foundation in advanced nodes below 7nm. Their new manufacturing capacities in AZ and OH are largely financed by private equity and they are not hopeful. The word “competitive” is just not part of Intel’s future.
this is the time to buy there stock newbies. let it bottom out and put your pension on them balloning back up when there new manufactories open up. they will be secretly buying back there own stock .
Since Gelsinger took the helm in the beginning of 2021 the company's revenus and earnings heave gone steadily down like a down escalator. How long before he gets replaced? Hopefully it happens soon. He may be a brilliant engineer but his expertise at running a conglomerate is lacking.
Don't waste your time with dying trash companies. Take ur osses and move on , maybe they'll come back but it's a gamble at that point and you might be waiting years. Not worth
X86/X64 is dead. Being second best at x86/x64 CPU architecture is like being the 2nd best buggy whip company when the model t was rolling off assembly lines. Nobody will use Intel Fabs - Intel is a direct competitor with Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD, Marvell, Realtek and anyone else. Glad we gave them 10 Ga-Bazillion in the CHIPS Act before they sink.
Just an FYI: The "7nm, 3nm, 20A" names are just marketing-fluff. It has nothing to do with the actual size, performance or transistor-density of the products. There are even differences between different manufacurer's on how much a node improves in diferent areas of the chip, even though the average desity is identical. All it means is really, "better than last one". 3nm does NOT have 133% better transistor-density than 7nm.
Thanks for the analysis - it's always interesting when a stock is universally hated. What source of info would you pay attention to in checking on the progress of Intel's tech development?
i can offer some tech info about TSMC. This week, ( some said last week) , TSMC is starting 2nm trail massive production for a big company... You know who.
but the world is shifting towards x86 architecture to arm based one, eventually Microsoft Windows have to work on ARM and it will happen soon. so there is no steam left with intel to become something great. RIP intel.
Intel is a geopolitical play, just like Boeing, US government will not allow Intell to go under. e.gTrump may levy punitive tariff against TSMC which would completely change the game in Intel's favor.
in 2022, when Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, visited Taiwan, Morris Chang, TSMC founder, told her in front of our president's face.... "naive". ( literarily, you can google and find the article in POLITICAL website) Chip manufacturing is never about money or government support. Can American engineers get a call at Saturday midnight and return back to the fab within 45 mins to solve the problems? i am afraid the answer is no. not to mention the labor union will be pissed. look at TSMC's fab building in AZ... started from 2021, June meanwhile, TSMC's fab building in Japan, started from 2022, April now the one in Japan is done on 2024, Feb takes only 20 months to finish. and ready for massive produce in 2024 Q4 and the one in AZ? the information we get here is the massive production should be 2025 Q1. how could Americans compete with this speed? the core issue is never about the money... it is about the spirit of manufacturing, which Americans have lost long time ago. Therefore not just chip making, other traditional industry of America, like cars, is the same. When Trump got gun shot and that famous photo went viral on internet, within 2 hours, the T shirts with that photo are already made in China, ready for selling to Trump's supporters. nowadays, Americans care about labor right more, i have to say. ( take that as a compliment, trust me, many Taiwanese are jealous ) from what you said, it seems Americans are ready for Protectionism
The problem really is Intel's chip manufacturing can't keep up. It costs too much money, and they apparently could not break over the 7 nm threshold. It's not something you can just comfortly manage in a short period of time. You need a large group of elite engineers and past development experience to overcome this. And at this moment, they are falling too much behind TSMC. I don't believe they can overcome these by tariff... At this point, they manufacturing ability may have already fallen behind some Chinese companies...
1. "Intel is a geopolitical play". So is TSMC. 2. "US government will not allow Intell to go under", You better think twice. 3. Trump? well.. Last month we didn't even know Biden would drop out the race, and you pin Intel's future on unpredictable future?
unfortunately there are other American chip manufacturing companies like qualcomm and amd no point in keeping intel around at this point. Only reason they would save it, is to avoid the massive job loss.
Haha 😅, Andrew Grove rolling over in his grave, Oh, how the mighty have fallen ! For a semi company that ratted on China but cudnt perform. Suspension of dividends was Coup de Grace 4 investors
Split the company and give chip manufacturers to TSMC. The rest of the Intel will soar. Or maybe China occupied Taiwan, effectively make Intel the No.1 chip manufacturer again.
"$50 billion(Chips Act's budget)? well, that is a good start" said Morris Chang, TSMC founder, to Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, in 2022. $50 billion is just an appetizer in the chip manufacturing.
Lol, you do realize that the whole intel investment was initiated because they know Taiwan will be returned to China in the near to medium term, right?
People will be calling it a value buy when it drops to $10. Just wait and watch. Tsmc chips are 7-10 years ahead of intel. They will continue to lose the pc market.
AMD has a great CEO. Good CPUs and GPUs. Intel has a CEO. Failing CPUs, no one trusts them because they didn't let the customers know. GPUs 3 generation behind. Intel stock will fall for a long time.
Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $25K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires
The writing was on the wall when they prioritized financial engineering over actual engineering.
yup
I think Intel's problems started when they hired accountants and business people to lead a hardcore tech company.
lolno. Intel aren't allowed to sell to china aka the biggest market in the world while at the same time have to cope with stupidly high fed rate propping USD into stupidly high position. Of course their revenue earning would not be up to par. Their problem is literally big brother
Mark my word, nvidia won't be much different
@@ZETA14.88 intel can sell to China... CPUs aren't blacklisted, it's GPUs (only high ends) that are. What they can't sell is the x86 architecture but it's not even a relevant architecture anymore, nowadays people are going ARM even for desktop and China is pushing hard for RISC-V
You don’t need to be that to understand old capital is less productive than new.
That's the entire US in a nutshell. And then they get surprised why sanctions no longer work, lol
@@dicecorporation That's the problem with the old elites, they are one-trick ponies, they repeat the same things.
Intel is never going away, the worst worst worst case scenario is AMD, Nvidia or Qualcomm would acquire (or would be arranged to acquire) them. I don't think United States (the country itself) would allow Intel to be wiped out from the face of earth as it would be an embarrassment to the likes of China.
US will not save Intel.
if yo have to talk about intel this way, its all i need to know that it isnt a good investment.
How are you sure? They are in trouble
@@nk2012 Their bonds are still investment grade. Intel is going to be around for some time but the stock will likely not recover. As long as they make their bond payments I will be happy but the bonds will also not produce capital gains on lower interest rates.
As an Intel employee who recently joined the company as GPU design engineer. I can tell you that inside the company we are taking GPU market very seriously and increasing the hiring in this segment also thinking of pushing new Architectures in the future.
As an employee I'll try my level best to get my part of the act. But the manufacturing end will leak money for next 2 years or so till they ramp up the scale
brother come down ! As an Intel employee tell your guys from the CPU department that they should first produce proper CPU chips, where proper quality control takes place!!!. And when you have recovered from the damage that was done a long time ago, you can think about GPUs. big brain time 😂
@@BasicBeach89 unfortunately they are in different division. I'm in GPU and AI domain. I heard about this and tried to raise this in today's broader meeting. But ofcourse u know how they'll give some boiler plate reply 😞
I was disappointed by the news myself
@@BasicBeach89 also I'm not in any managerial position or something to do cross department coarse correction. I'm just an RTL design engineer who joined the company 2 months ago and all of my work goes to working on the GPU IPs
@@bhuvaneshs.k638 all good. I didn't mean anything bad to you.. I'm just disappointed with Intel and their CPUs. Because I have a 13900k myself and it's been running with the BIOS default settings for 1.5 years and I can tell you one thing, despite my custom water cooling, the thing gets hotter than a volcano... how could Intel miss that?? like how? Blame the motherboard manufacturer and then find out that the microcode is flawed from the ground up! WoW. Is it now like with game manufacturers where they sell beta CPUs to a full finished product and customers then try to fix the CPUs afterwards by reporting errors to Intel?? I don't understand the world anymore🤧
In addition, the idea of P-cores and E-cores is a brilliant , if it only worked properly. Download Process Lasso yourself if you have an Intel 13th-14th generation and look at the work distribution of the respective cores while you play a game or any program that demands a lot of CPU power. It doesn't even work properly....
POV: Invested 700k of your grandma's inheritance to you in Intel 5 days ago...
Grandma would be burning after reading this coment ;)
Good luck I bought the dip as well. I’ll check back in a year
@@Topsquadjapani’m gonna buy intel, i think it’s a great buy currently. i just dont expect to turn profit within a week or few months, im willing to hold for years. im betting that once newer Intel US fabs open and they have a year or two, they’ll introduce cutting edge chips.
@@biz6361
Be to late.
Tsmc already have the lead making all comparators chip's.
They have nothing tsmc can not already offer.
Intel also buying tsmc.
I just see intel as a horrendous value trap. Just because a stock has been discounted horrendously doesnt mean its a good buy. They failed and suck in all areas. I’d much rather buy something like amazon or crowdstike that are market leaders, grow exponentially yet are discounted for dumb reasons
Intel has invested more than 3 times their market cap 😂..take years, but their heading in the right direction
@@thepunish3r735 theyre heading one way, straight down
@@iCozzh well yea , why wouldn’t they be.. they said the same thing about apple .. Amazon ..Tesla…all dropping of 90 percent from their highs
@@iCozzh according to the stock split ..Tesla was valued at .30 cents a share .. or 3$ at the time ..but the split gave u 10 shares for every 1
@@iCozzh also intel would of made a nice profit , if their were not expanding .. they made 12 billion one 3 months and call that dead ..fxck out of here
A lot of people say that Intel's foundry would NEVER copy designs from others....because that's suicidal for business. It's called "gleaning" information. WHY WOULD anyone spend billions in latest R&D only to hand the blueprints over to one of the fiercest competitors?? A.I chips? GPU? Server chips? Mobile chips? I mean you have to be crazy and naive to do that. Intel says you can "trust us" because they're "separate" companies. Smh. This I fear the most, is where INTEL went "all out" but went into tunnel vision. The thing about these FABS....if you aren't constantly making money from them, they will become your BIGGEST profit killer. The maintenance alonge on these machines, will be in the millions annually.
Intel like Boeing was the best company during their prime time, until they lost their way. Can Intel recover ? I doubt at least in the next 10 years.
Intel brand of reliability is also being hit hard with the 13th and 14th Gen CPU issues.
It is bad news when Datacenter companies jump from I9 CPU to AMD.
Just wonder why data centers had not switched to AMD earlier. AMD CPUs have incredilble number of cores and super data center friendly for economics reasons. That will benefit the customers as well.
@@wanyelandy8847 yet, Intel's cores are still faster.
Soooo should I buy? Or wait for it to fall below $10? Explain it to me like i'm high (because I am).
Wait until it's below $10, then take out a sofi personal loan and max out all your credit cards so that you have $700k and invest it all in deep out of the money call options expiring in 6 months. Thank me for your yacht later 🙏
@@investingsucks will do
@HeavyDutyMr that is what people though when it was at $30. This stock is an easy way to lose your money.
Short
Look at the current price. Then go bet on that number in roulette. Statistically you have a higher chance making money that way.
I have been wondering for years how Intel can stay in business and the stock not crash. Now I know, it is because people who think they know how to invest push money into the stock. I am glad they are losing tons of money, they had no business making it in the first place.
Hello, what is your analysis of Navitas semiconductor stock price? Thanks in advance
Good job, I'm thinking whether to wait to average down or buy them now but i don't see any short term change yet.
Did you check out SPCE and a potential turn around?
I just got you on my recommendation page randomly and I'm really thankful I did... a really informative video!
so, is it a good timing to by some shares? it is like 20 dollars each.
It does not recover, the only it comes back if there's a 20 Billion dollar bailout or something of that nature. With no intervention the company goes bankrupt. All you need to do is analyze their balance sheets, they barely have any cashflow and they have double the employees of nvidia.
Biden gave Intel 8 billions, I think.
Intel is one of the companies listed as a national security issue for the US. They will never fail like GM, Boeing and Honeywell.
When everyone tells you to dump Intel and buy NVDIA, probably it's right time to buy Intel as a contrary bet. This has worked for me several times. Just keep a view of holding them for at least 3 year and ther is chance you will double your investment.
Why not avoid the risk and buy a semiconductor ETF
Look at the management top to bottom.
They take a large L, tell short term shareholders to piss off, and revisit below $10 after axing financial engineering and investing into massive capex and R&D. Or they can just gradually fade into irrelevance sucking up tax payer money.
What is the similarity between Intel and Boeing? They're run by bean counters. Once you get rid of top level engineering management and replace with bean counters, it's all downhill literally.
Business people running a tech company is like rookies call the shots. This is the result
"$50 billion(Chips Act's budget)? well, that is a good start" said Morris Chang, TSMC founder, to Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, in 2022.
You guys have no clue that $50 billion is just an appetizer in the chip manufacturing.
Does it still pay dividends?
They said they will stop
Nobody stays on top forever. Intel's moment in the sun was over long ago.
I believe that the most optimistic scenario you mentioned will not happen. According to Intel's latest Lunar Lake CPU architecture diagram, Intel Foundry is not involved in manufacturing any core parts of the chip. We do not see Intel 18A, and we don't even see Intel 3. This proves that Intel Foundry cannot ensure the yield rate of its own products, making it impossible to scale up production. The current profits of Intel Foundry are still primarily provided by Intel 7. This means that the advanced process nodes cannot provide reliable production yields.
Dude are you lost .. the foundries take years to make .. they now have two high na machines .. that tsmc does not have , these take even month to install .. Ohio foundry opens 2027 .. idk what ur smoking but all this takes years
@@thepunish3r735 Intel needs longer to figure out how to use them given their lack of experience with ASML machines. They'll still probably have terrible yield. At this point you can't trust Pat's word, he's clearly a snake oil salesman.
@@thepunish3r735 I believe you haven't grasped the core issue. High NA does not guarantee that Intel will gain an advantage over TSMC. TSMC hasn't immediately adopted High NA due to costs and the fact that existing technology can achieve 2nm without the most advanced lithography machines. Even if Intel successfully produces Intel 14A using High NA, if it doesn't have any significant performance advantage over N2B, customers won't pay for such high-cost technology. Don't forget that TSMC's first-generation 7nm was completed using DUV, while it took Intel five years to break through to 10nm using DUV.
Moreover, regarding the Ohio factory you mentioned for 2027, don't forget that this factory is planned to be operational by 2025. Given Intel's current capital expenditure reduction, do you really think the 2027 timeline can be guaranteed? Without continued subsidies, I believe the progress of the Ohio factory will be further delayed.
@@hamadayoko oo their is soo many what ifs and I know exactly the issues they face .. they have made the 5 nodes in 4 years goal .. they are way behind on servers and ai .. they have been trying anything and everything to make the high na production cheaper and have plans.. I know none of this is guaranteed…. But I seen companies like Apple and Tesla in worse condition pull it off
@@diamondlion47 correction ! they helped make the machine ..they have many plans on how to make it cheaper to mass produced ..caz it is more expensive to make compared to the older model
when you are relived to learn that you are the second worst managed company in the U.S behind Boeing, you know you fucked up.
Intel is fast becoming an acquisition target. It is not beyond expectation that a competitor and/or VC will buy Intel for its IP and other assets. There is probably a strong, profitable core business in Intel still but it requires drastic surgery to realise that. To be fair to Pat, he is fighting a couple of decades of Intel’s previous complacency and under investment in R&D. I believe (sadly as an ex employee) that Intel needs to stop thinking in terms of being the market leader (not sure it is anyway) and transform in to a lean disrupter like AMD was several years back. This means focusing on what they are good at and dumping the rest. For example, is Intel’s in-house FABs really a competitive advantage anymore? What about investing in ARM, RISC V, Graphine technology? Intel is trying to do too much and it simply does not have the resources anymore.
Intel spends more on r/d than everyone combined .. biulding foundries worth more than their current market cap .. not gonna happen
If Intel keeps being obsessive about investing in their unprofitable foundry business, they're going to be the next Kodak very soon... Jack of all trades, Master of none..
@@romant8596 their foundries are going strong .. 2 high na machines now .,how many does tsmc have …zero …they are going strong .. take 3-5 years to build
@@thepunish3r735 So what? TSMC spends more, 30 billions per year, and they already have 92% of the market share in advanced chips. Intel is not even a top 10 foundry, they need to focus on what they're good at.
I would agree to you, but there is expertise issue. To drop one area and invest to another you need either to grow expertise by doing several years bad products or hire engineers that already have related experience. 1s option is not for Intel because Intel already looses money (investing to fabs). 2d option as well - they will have to "buy" a lot of people with experience and do competitive products from the scratch hoping first or second generation will be better than others analogs.
So I believe Intel is doing right think in the situation it is in, there is no easy solution
Intel is in a position to be incredibly successful, do not however underestimate the effect of poor management and individualistic politics.
Stopping dividend might be needed but is usually a no no for any stock
Buy low, sell high.
Now, remember that.😅
Yea man unless do don't do a EVGA intha GPU sectors..gen thy all ag tolti good to Bay Intel AMD or Nvidia .. intha log hall . I've do not all ar acesebel as I tha tha momnet .so yea ... Etc
Miss the ARM CPU entry into the PC market recently by Qualcomm and probably soon by others. This will put even more pressure on the margins for Intel core product.
Eh, I think more market share will go to AMD and Apple. Qualcomm has too many issues and are too expensive.
@@diamondlion47apple? are you serious you cannot compare closed vs open however you can compare the performance doesn't matter if it's only in their products though
@@diamondlion47 AMD missed the boat with DPU's and has for the moment no answer for a ARM based CPU besides the Ryzen. Yes Qualcomm has many issues and you are right the ARM CPU is too expensive for the moment. But the feasibility has now been shown for the PC market reactions are mostly positive from suppliers and press so Microsoft + partners have to work on improvements. I'm sure other players will now also come into this market soon to bring the cost down.
Only the paranoid survive.
Guess they stopped being paranoid
Interesting analysis! Thank you.
Intel is very reluctant, to say the least, to get into any RISC architecture, such as ARM or R8SC-V.
True that the PC business are reluctant to go that direction, with the exception for Apple. But even so, it's a disadvantage to be locked into an maybe obsolete architecture.
Apple's ARM-based CPUs seems to show the way. If AMD would do the same, Intel would probably fall behind, reluctant to drop their x86 architecture.
It's kind of a Kodak situation!
I love my Intel stock and I keep buying more! Their new 7 layers factory will leap-frog all the competition for even one of the many reasons: That foundry will be the only 7 layers capable foundry. Loving it!
Even TSMC foundry is limited to 5 layers, and one does not build a new foundry "overnight". 🙂
😂😂😂
So much promise but no "walk". Wake me up when it becomes real and not a fairytale
who build fabs in usa where cost is x3.....compared to TSMC
or in Ireland where it costs 4x
@@gungagalunga9040 hahahaah
It will recover if you can afford it id suggest buying it while it's cheap in 5 year share will reach new highes
Excellent analysis.
Can you do an analysis for a German company called Xfab ?
Dollar cost average in now.
The deep analysis is appreciated. Subbed
I would say one problem is intel does not have arm lisence and second intel and foundry is problematic cause intel is also a rival against other manufacturers and secrets of other comes to them via manufacturing competitors processors and it is problem. Direction is toward arm based processors cause those are more power efficient than x86 and cheaper to manufacture, intel problems are complex.
Having a Chinese CEO of INTEL is the only way to make intel great again
To ace calculus, you need to first pass trigonometry. All advanced node manufacturing will be outsourced to TSMC. Intel has very little foundation in advanced nodes below 7nm. Their new manufacturing capacities in AZ and OH are largely financed by private equity and they are not hopeful. The word “competitive” is just not part of Intel’s future.
Chip's and science act also helped global founderies .
this is the time to buy there stock newbies. let it bottom out and put your pension on them balloning back up when there new manufactories open up. they will be secretly buying back there own stock .
I just hold all three. TSMC, Intel and Global Foundries.
Intel sounds like Boeing of the semiconductor, is that why they failed?
Please don’t give ten billion to this company.
Since Gelsinger took the helm in the beginning of 2021 the company's revenus and earnings heave gone steadily down like a down escalator. How long before he gets replaced? Hopefully it happens soon. He may be a brilliant engineer but his expertise at running a conglomerate is lacking.
im so glad that its so down rn, this a great time to buy this cornerstone company
They will be kept afloat for sure, but too many problems to get turned around within the decade.
Dude well done! Very informative
indeed
Intel is looking more and more like IBM 2.0
Happy as hell to buy a thousand at 19.90
Finally a mature well done analysis on the fundamentals of Intel.
Send it to the TRUCK STOP!!!!!
No. That company is PayPal.
Value trap meaning.
Buy under 10 in 2031 if exists.
Don't waste your time with dying trash companies. Take ur osses and move on , maybe they'll come back but it's a gamble at that point and you might be waiting years. Not worth
X86/X64 is dead. Being second best at x86/x64 CPU architecture is like being the 2nd best buggy whip company when the model t was rolling off assembly lines. Nobody will use Intel Fabs - Intel is a direct competitor with Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD, Marvell, Realtek and anyone else.
Glad we gave them 10 Ga-Bazillion in the CHIPS Act before they sink.
Just an FYI:
The "7nm, 3nm, 20A" names are just marketing-fluff. It has nothing to do with the actual size, performance or transistor-density of the products. There are even differences between different manufacurer's on how much a node improves in diferent areas of the chip, even though the average desity is identical.
All it means is really, "better than last one". 3nm does NOT have 133% better transistor-density than 7nm.
1nm and 2nm fabs are being built in Taiwan and S Korea right now
Got my long call in
Ceos are tanking Intel. Failure of 13th and 14th gen chips hasnt helped. Customers have lost faith in Intel stock..
Intel, Boeing, GE, Ford. Oh my.
amazing content could easily be 500k channel
Is Intel 7 really 7?
I can tell you how,
Just can’t
Intel is going to be next BlackBerry
As soon as foundry will breakeven and they fix the problems in their gaming processor. Story will change
@@f.a.4077in what decade?
@larryc1616 Don't buy intel if you don’t have investment digestion of 3 years. That is my view.
Thanks for the analysis - it's always interesting when a stock is universally hated. What source of info would you pay attention to in checking on the progress of Intel's tech development?
Pretty much just have to go with their press releases. The tech is complex so I tried to simplify in this video
i can offer some tech info about TSMC.
This week, ( some said last week) , TSMC is starting 2nm trail massive production for a big company... You know who.
Great analysis!
Excellent video!
but the world is shifting towards x86 architecture to arm based one, eventually Microsoft Windows have to work on ARM and it will happen soon. so there is no steam left with intel to become something great. RIP intel.
Bought on Friday under $21
Bought in at 19.60
Great analysis!
5:15 ASML is actually the most important one as they have a monopoly in the machines that make the chips
Buy this for the short cover rip thats coming. Failed company
Better to just buy puts on any dead cat bounce.
Whats their obsession with lakes??
haahhaahha
Intel is a geopolitical play, just like Boeing, US government will not allow Intell to go under. e.gTrump may levy punitive tariff against TSMC which would completely change the game in Intel's favor.
in 2022, when Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, visited Taiwan, Morris Chang, TSMC founder, told her in front of our president's face.... "naive". ( literarily, you can google and find the article in POLITICAL website)
Chip manufacturing is never about money or government support.
Can American engineers get a call at Saturday midnight and return back to the fab within 45 mins to solve the problems? i am afraid the answer is no. not to mention the labor union will be pissed.
look at TSMC's fab building in AZ... started from 2021, June
meanwhile, TSMC's fab building in Japan, started from 2022, April
now the one in Japan is done on 2024, Feb takes only 20 months to finish.
and ready for massive produce in 2024 Q4
and the one in AZ? the information we get here is the massive production should be 2025 Q1.
how could Americans compete with this speed?
the core issue is never about the money... it is about the spirit of manufacturing, which Americans have lost long time ago. Therefore not just chip making, other traditional industry of America, like cars, is the same.
When Trump got gun shot and that famous photo went viral on internet, within 2 hours, the T shirts with that photo are already made in China, ready for selling to Trump's supporters.
nowadays, Americans care about labor right more, i have to say. ( take that as a compliment, trust me, many Taiwanese are jealous )
from what you said, it seems Americans are ready for Protectionism
The problem really is Intel's chip manufacturing can't keep up. It costs too much money, and they apparently could not break over the 7 nm threshold. It's not something you can just comfortly manage in a short period of time. You need a large group of elite engineers and past development experience to overcome this. And at this moment, they are falling too much behind TSMC. I don't believe they can overcome these by tariff... At this point, they manufacturing ability may have already fallen behind some Chinese companies...
1. "Intel is a geopolitical play". So is TSMC.
2. "US government will not allow Intell to go under", You better think twice.
3. Trump? well.. Last month we didn't even know Biden would drop out the race, and you pin Intel's future on unpredictable future?
BTW, since this year, when i buy flight tickets, i start to take the airplane type as a factor.
unfortunately there are other American chip manufacturing companies like qualcomm and amd no point in keeping intel around at this point. Only reason they would save it, is to avoid the massive job loss.
Buy today be rich Oct 17th guaranteed. Intel is going to lead the market for years to come. If you read you too know this. 3 to 5 times by Dec 2024!
Haha 😅, Andrew Grove rolling over in his grave, Oh, how the mighty have fallen ! For a semi company that ratted on China but cudnt perform. Suspension of dividends was Coup de Grace 4 investors
intel need to bring back the extreme series cpu line up
Split the company and give chip manufacturers to TSMC. The rest of the Intel will soar. Or maybe China occupied Taiwan, effectively make Intel the No.1 chip manufacturer again.
"$50 billion(Chips Act's budget)? well, that is a good start" said Morris Chang, TSMC founder, to Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, in 2022.
$50 billion is just an appetizer in the chip manufacturing.
Lol, you do realize that the whole intel investment was initiated because they know Taiwan will be returned to China in the near to medium term, right?
agree
Still looks expensive
How is it expensive with a P/B of 0,7? The P/E will likely fall to a much lower value when the companys investments will show results.
@@johnmoller9222 Revenues are declining, or stagnant at best. Its a shrinking industry. P/S no good for me.
AMD was bad until Lisa Gu came in. good business is based on good leaders. i hope Pat Gelsinger can turn around Intel
You should to buy a better mic.
First time in this channel. Thank you for your content.
I should
"How can Intel recover"
Too big to fail?
I just want my damn money back.
100% 😂
There cooked
'Sponsors of tomorrow ' - what overconfidence
Great video and insights. Keep it up!
Intel can’t recover, AMD to the moon 🌖
People will be calling it a value buy when it drops to $10. Just wait and watch. Tsmc chips are 7-10 years ahead of intel. They will continue to lose the pc market.
Intel are tsmc customers.
It’s good to go for semiconductors ETF
AMD has a great CEO.
Good CPUs and GPUs.
Intel has a CEO.
Failing CPUs, no one trusts them because they didn't let the customers know.
GPUs 3 generation behind.
Intel stock will fall for a long time.
Having a Chinese CEO of INTEL is the only way to make intel great again
Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $25K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires
or that 25k can turn to 0
she's mostly on Telegrams, with the user name.
dorianjtownsend 💯
Once they can this CEO Intel will turnaround and the sky's the limit. It will happen within the next year or two.
They should close their Israeli fab . They pay more to hire Israelis staff than Americans.
BDS Apartheid Israel
ICC Arrest Netanyahu
FREE PALESTINE
Having a Chinese CEO of INTEL is the only way to make intel great again