The REAL reason Tesla is 'delaying' NOT cancelling Model 2 production
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- Опубліковано 15 кві 2024
- The REAL reason Tesla is 'delaying' NOT cancelling Model 2 production
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Tesla shares took a hit so I guess we will be getting 10 propoganda-filled videos a day now.
Sam…. You have to cover the Negative as well as the Positive to be considered an Honest Reporter.
Why doesn’t Tesla just say what the plans are.
Because Elon is paranoid and insane.
they want to wait till 8/8 to say anything I am assuming
osbourne effect. if they say the model 2 is coming it could crash sales the current models that Tesla is producing.
Because in part, the rumors are likely true.
@@kurtlowder3276 Wouldn’t Robotaxi also do that?
Tony Seba never said that the curve of improvement and cost reduction in EVs had to be smooth. It turns out, the advances are happening in "spurts." The batteries, the cars, and the production process all had to be reinvented and then reinvented again. When batteries became safer, longer lasting, faster charging, less expensive and with higher energy density, Tesla could NOT make 20M cars using the older ones. With 48V electrical architecture, ethernet signaling, wire steering and brakes, and mature sensing technology for FSD, it became cost prohibitive to design the cars the "old" way and then transition to the new later on. These changes enabled radical redesign of the production process from moving production "lines" to sub-stations where the front, back and central sections are first put together and then securely connected. Worse, fewer consumers buy the older versions because they know that in 2-3 years the cars will be so much better and cheaper. Only Elon could maneuver through all this, but even for him it's a bumpy ride.
Agree EVS become obsolete after 3 years.
So it's not cancelled. Just delayed to ♾️.
Reuters stated model 2 cancelled....within 24hrs Musk stated on Twitter this was untrue.
Not what he said - he said Reuters was lying but refused to say what they were lying about, which implied there was some truth in what they said.
@@michaelnurse9089 if it were really false...he could sue.....he has not
Elon lies about almost everything.
It’s just one of many things Reuters has come out with that turned out to be drivel. I seem to remember when the model three first arrived we had the same rubbish about it will never scale. And when mask said the model Y would be the best selling car in the world they scoffed about that as well. Pontificating while doing nothing is incredibly easy. Building millions of cars a year is a little more tricky.
And the day after that Tesla cancelled the model 2
Sam, you talk about others making exaggerated statements. Wasn't your promise to shut down your channel if the stories about layoffs at Tesla were untrue its own exaggeration? And then you went back to that video and edited out that statement? That is dishonest and dishonorable. You can't ignore that whole mess. Just come clean and put it behind you so you can reclaim your credibility, mate.
I think you will find he mentioned it was allegedly due to a profit warning. Tesla are making loads of money and until there is any outlook on the profit situation then I guess Sam’s statement stands.
All over his channel people want him to address this yet he gives a blind eye, he's a Tesla king bot
yes why not just admit her was wrong and move on
@@hypnotechnoTotally agree! 👍
the guy is a fanatic living in a dream world.
Just checked State Farm insurance about insuring F150 lightning, going to cost me almost 35% more a year than an ice F150
Depends on what trim you get. Get the higher trim F150, and your insurance will be the same
I believe Sam may be right on this one. CATL's new battery hasn't started production yet and that battery along with the unboxed manufacturing will not only reduce the cost of production but will allow Tesla to earn even more on the new car while still keeping it at 25k. I think Texas was where they were going to build their battery but it made more sense to use CATL'S as it's 30% better on density and 30% cheaper per CATL.
Tesla and the Viking are Not Cancelling!!!
Wait, didn't the Viking say that in one of this videos, if Tesla lays off workers he will delete his channel?! Aha!
@@BillAnt He did, but he lies a lot!!
@@BillAntSo he lied?
@@tatata1543 yep he lied .. he didnt close his account
Funny to follow this mass delusion and how it evolves what he supposedly said. YOU are the liers. I managed to watch the original video twice before it got hidden.
You have no "word " , so sam didn't scram is it a scam ,,,,
One of my rural neighbors bought a 1st gen Leaf. The older Leaf is okay for the five mile trips into town - the batteries can overheat on longer trips in the Texas summer.
I wish there were an affordable "Lego" battery with cooling that can be assembled by EV repair
shops to upgrade older EVs like the 2012 Leaf.
Carwow did a review recently on the 1st gen Leaf and were impressed by it as a daily run around and not a bad car by Nissan. Apparently, the Leaf has a big following/fan base and can buy replacement batteries, newer technology batteries with more range, etc.. It was very interesting.
New Teslas with LiFePo4 batteries will last 1.5m miles. Current ones last 500k miles. The Leaf was just early technology (like early cars which would explode) and I feel bad for your friend.
They have something like that for old Prius hybrids it seems. Maybe it is coming.
Yes, loads of places will replace Leaf batteries with newer gear, doesn't mean there's one usefully near to your friend though. But it's not a car that's as important as say, a classic Beetle or Mini so it's not exactly exciting for the car monkeys to work on products for.
I cannot begin to imagine the amount of supplier development and coordination required to build a new mega factory in Mexico… especially when investors/lenders are hesitant right now
Mothballed. It's easy to say that they haven't cancelled it. They could take it back up in five years. So for all intents and purposes, they have put it in the deep freeze.
Getting a bit desperate now😂.
The RoboTaxi and the Model are the same car, with or without a steering wheel. Elon probably got so exited about FSD 12 that he decided to make the first production lines without the steering wheel. But if government approval of FSD doesn't come in time, they'll add the steering wheels back in and sell Model 2 instead.
I thought you were shutting down if Tesla made mass lay offs ?
Just bullshit then?
Bruh, why the hate? Chi lax
He actually deleted that video.
@@austinpowers1999 no hate ... the internet just caught out a liar
@@vandamonium1731 so you never lie?
@@austinpowers1999 if I lied in my job I'm sure there are some vary high powered individuals in large cooperative positions would like to have a chat with me as well as as some legal representatives.... As my mom would say you may not catch a thief but you will always catch a liar
how is Tesla considered an energy company yet they don’t even make their own batteries? And I thought you were deleting your channel?
They do make batteries, just not all of them.
Don’t do it Mr Sam
If Tesla wants to produce the Model 2 in the numbers, the cost and timelines they want, then I can think of no other place that will meet Tesla's goals than Tesla Shanghai.
Will the USA ban these Chinese made vehicles? Would the USA market therefore be accessed through the Mexican factory?
US is becoming anti china…. not good idea
At the currency exchange rate, India makes more sense than Mexico or China.
Tesla would be doomed without the Model 2. They need to be shifting high volumes of cars and they need at least one more model to strengthen their brand. I wonder whether Elon Musk has been too distracted by Twitter… to focus enough attention on Tesla. He probably could have done with that $40 billion to invest in Tesla.
Tesla is presented with the problem that a Mexican Model 2 is still going to be more expensive to manufacture than a Chinese equivalent made in Shanghai. Unless Chinese cars are artificially jacked up in price via punative tariffs that a US BUYER would have to pay to get one, Tesla would have to compete on features, or patriotism (to Mexico? unlikely), or performance, or styling, to win market share. High loan rates would work against volume sales in the present Fed Reserve environment, and CATL batteries would have to be made in the US to get the current Federal subsidies, for people with high enough taxes to use them. SO, it is really a question of whether Tesla wants to cut margins to sell a cheaper car, to poorer customers who can't benefit from the $7500 tax break right now, or get all their ducks in line now to make a highly automated modular-assembly factory that can produce cheaper to make cars a bit later, after all the Mexican infrastructure is in place, and the suppliers have arrived and set up their businesses. Meanwhile, used EVs last a long time, and that is what poorer people who want EVs will buy.
You are providing the most benevolent interpretation of the available facts. You could be right, and only time will tell. What we do know is that Reuters based its report of the Model 2 cancellation on internal documents, not off-the-record comments from unspecified sources. And Drew Baglino, who focused on powertrain and energy systems (not autonomous software), is GONE. And we have the promise of a robotaxi unveiling on 8/8. Another interpretation which would also fit the available facts is that the CEO is steering the company away from the dual Model 2/robotaxi strategy to a singular focus on the robotaxi and autonomous driving as growth drivers for the company, and those that are not on board with this strategy are either leaving Tesla or being let go.
Sam, why didn't Elon confirm any of the things you suggest?
Because that's not going to happen, this bloke is just trying to save face after he was caught out yesterday.
I'd wait until after the Ludicrous event and Robotaxi event for more news. Elon trying to keep X the go to for all his news.
@@saibtsheb5590 Not trying. Using it for all Tesla news
?????
I feel sure you are right. There are a couple of other factors. Tesla needs to build a thousand or more robotaxis to put through all the regulatory hurdles in each of the states of the USA and the countries of the world. Once the robotaxi is into its regulation phase Tesla can start on the model 2. Secondly, once robotaxis are seen to be coming, providing point to point transport at less than the cost of car ownership of even a small car, the market for small cars is likely to diminish considerably It is prudent for Tesla to give the robotaxi some lead time. Especially when people are putting off buying a new car. The current market is perfect for robotaxi.
robotaxi make sense in a city not anywhere else
@@joeblack4026 Robotaxis will simply be like a normal taxi except have no driver. I don't think they will be any cheaper to use. People will still want there own car.
Robotaxi and the model 2 will be based on the same platform.
Makes sense to do them both at the same time.
Tesla's just putting the 'Model 2' on pause to build anticipation, it's like waiting for your favorite dessert after dinner! 🍰😂
Why would they build the smallest car to date in the land of the giants, surely Berlin would be the best place to make it and distribute around Europe where they actually buy smaller car
True. But then, Volkswagen have their ID3 and ID4 platform vehicles which aren’t selling as well as they planned them to. EVs aren’t the car most people are going for.
@@sullivanrachael but that's a 35k car and a pretty average one at that, this would be a MG4 competitor and I'm pretty sure people would rather have a Tesla than a MG or Leaf or Vauxhall Corsa E
@@sullivanrachael ID3 (size 3 car) has the same price of Model 3 (size 4 car), with less range, heavier car and not so good. Megane is a little better but expensive too, and the higher batterie is "small".
in Europe, we're used to 5 door hatchbacks with 1000 km range and very low energy consumption. at 20k€ maximum, brand new.
@@sullivanrachael..is EV in general? No, it’s all the OTHER EV that are not selling. Tesla still has waiting lists for its EV.
In other words, they cant work how to make money on the Model 2, so they are falling back to the insane, ludicrous product line.
No, timing is just bad.
1. Global car sales for the last year are at about 50% of the year before.
2. Interest rates are high right now so buyers are waiting if they can
3. Robotaxi comes first because it seems to be 10x more profitable than a model 2.
Indeed.
@@michaelnurse9089Bullshit! Where did you get that car sales dropped 50%. They certainly didn't drop in Aust.
@@user-yh6xf3wl1hcorrect. Global car sales went up about 8% from 2022-2023. He needs to get off the crack pipe
Chinese will find easier to take over the global market
Im a project manager, the vast majority of projects that get paused are eventually cancelled or recreated in a form that doesnt resemble the origional in any appreciable manner. There will be no Tesla model 2 in production for the forseeaeable future. The good news is that in the meantime the Citroen E-C3, BYD Dolphin or equivalents will sell in droves (outside of the US).
Exactly, it the kind of language managers and politicians use when they don’t want to take the flak when they uturn on a policy or project. It will be quietly buried. RIP MODEL 2😢
From what I heard. Texas was going to build a test line to work out the Unboxed production. then once solved, Giga Mexico would do most of the heavy lifting for that model. I would also expect Giga Berlin and China to build this model as well. I don't foresee this compact model (unnamed as of now) selling all that well in the US long term as most Americans like their BIG vehicles. Europe and China, I believe, will be the biggest customers of this model.
Would be easier to unbox model Y because you have all the parts and you know they fit. Speeding the process, pass the tech onto new models. All the parts in Texas, just move them, preassemble and figure how to ramp. Lower cost and less tooling.
Sam, the 10% cut in work force is going on at Tesla, obviously there's no demand for Tesla EV and no reason to develop the Model 2, no reason to build any more factory in Mexico or elsewhere. Elon Musk is to blame for Tesla's troubles, IMO.
As a Tesla owner of a Model 3 I think they should focus on offering much longer range using the latest technology(will open up a new market for people who believe that they need the range), get proper rain sensors, park sensors and blinker stalks, HUD. After this they can build this cheaper model. FSD seems still to be years away-especially in Europe.
There has been a lot of confusing too about your speeches in previous videos about Tesla situation and you channel updates.
I think the battery issue is central, you're right. No affordable long range batteries, no Model 2.
I think you are correct, with the head of power engineer resigning, alarm bells are ringing about the progress or lack there of the latest 4680 battery which impacts the range and costs of all Tesla models. Particularly when the Chinese and German automobile and battery manufacturers are now producing their 46 range of batteries with Improved chemistry, new shape, and how the cells are packed will mean higher energy density by 20%, longer range by 30%, and faster charging by 30%, while reducing the carbon footprint of the production process by 60% when compared to the current generation.
@@DC.409 the 4680 cell was never going to go in the model 2. any 4680 production is testing for the cyber truck. As CAL recently stated a 60 kWh LFP battery will cost less than $3000 by the middle of 2024, price of the battery pack isn’t an issue but may be availability is.
@@ouethojlkjn If that was the case, it would explain why the Model 2 was binned. Chinese and European manufacturers are moving to a 46 architecture to improve performance and reduce costs. Yes the CATL LFP is already being used by Daimler Trucks for the new long range Actros 600, they are well advanced building their second factory in Hungary.
@@DC.409 i have also just read that the new small BYD Seagull uses Sodium Ion Batteries - probably cheaper again. It may be that Tesla have already decided they cannot compete with these small cheap cars - but what answer does the rest of the industry have?
@@ouethojlkjn Nissan has just shown photographs of the installation of their solid state production line. BMW has shown its 46 cell series production line working. Mercedes are using the LFA batteries for the Daimler Trucks. The astute legacy manufacturers are pursuing various projects running in parallel, solid state batteries, LFP batteries, hydrogen fuel cells, hydrogen ammonia and water ice engines. Presently batteries are heavy they are all pursuing the Colin Chapman logic of simplify and add lightness. They have got the simplify bit sorted with electric motors it’s the add lightness bit they all need to sort.
this is a good thing.... Batteries going into Tesla semi - they run 7+ hours a day. Saves lots of CO2. Batteries in small cars which at nest would be run for 2hrs a day. For the planet - they should be used where they can do the most good. As soon as the economics of electric trucks arrive - the move will be very swift indeed.
Love to see Tesla model 2 drive down the prices of the competition. And eventually there will arrive affordable cars. So Im a little bummed - but seeing more batteries go into truck is fantastic IMO
I am very frustrated by all the automotive companies pushing further and further the making of smaller EVs.
Are you even gonna make a video about Tesla firing 10% of their employees?
Like it’s still news and honestly more important than the other topics you talked about in recent days…😂
you have more chance of him making a video of the pollution lithium mining causes .................
So if he did i would not watch it. Dont watch any of his mush just happened to fall into the one where he said he would close his channel. People still support this channel and he cant even keep his word just sensationalise
@@larropowell3658 someone stated yesterday that the clip was going to be posted up on another channel somewhere,
Not surprised they would delay it with $20~$25k used Model 3s flooding the marked right now. The $25k Tesla already exists if you don't mind getting one that's a couple years old.
Wow, isn't fun to watch the Viking treat Tesla different than Toyota when they pull this type of thing. Tesla is doing a Toyota and I am mad because now there won't be any affordable EVs in the U.S. any time soon. By posturing like they are going to build an affordable car, and then not, they probably prevented the Bolt and Ford and Kea from filling the space.
Yes he bashes VW Toyota Nio every time they have a blip, yet defends Tesla to his bones
@@ciybersal3499cause he has stock
Your point that you are telling is that Tesla will wait for battery supply from CATL. And that is strange since car production is down in China. I would expect CATL to be happy having a new project.
I think Tesla will focus on other projects that pay more, and wait until the economy is improving.
BYD and CATL has jumped ahead for cheap EVs. The battery technology is evolving rapidly. Tesla is always on the edge of success or failure. Definitely will be made in Mexico to take advantage of NAFTA. Once CATL starts production of batteries in Mexico, Tesla may have a chance. If BYD gets factories up and running in Mexico before Tesla, it’s game over.
The problem is that I can't buy a Chinese EV in the U.S. Now there is none.
Sam, what if the delay is to wait until they have Optimus robots for the production line work? Keeps labor costs to a new minimum.
Sam, Watched a lot of your videos. Kudos. I will say there seems to be a preference/ bias for Tesla. Tesla has done a lot of good things and some bad things. Realistically they are the leading EV manufacturer, but Elon has a large tendency to over promise. Esp with time lines. Other manufacturers do as well as you often point out. I do wonder what happened to your Tesla layoff video, I can’t find it. Clearly they laid off 10% of their workforce and are struggling with the Cybertruck. The new LR Model Y will sell like gang busters once available, although I think sell even better if they combined it with a needed refresh. One of the biggest issues imho in the US is the number of Teslas on the road (I live in ATL), many look the same.
Why are Telsa investing in heavy manufacture ing equipment next to the Giga presses at Texes and continuing to buy as many battery cells as they can
Elon obviously does these things to manipulate his stock.
And his fanboys!!
Musk wants the stock to go down?
The compact car segment is notoriously low to no margin and traditionally used by auto makers as a "loss leader" segment. Said another way, how has the $25k Chevy Bolt done for GM? If you are invested in Tesla Stock b/c of its compact car/rumors, then you should sell all shares today and move on.
By the time the Redwood car is produced I wonder how much human labor will go into the manufacturing process due to the extensive use of robotics. Perhaps Tesla will then be at a point where labor costs will no longer be a major factor in selecting country of origin.
this is a really good point. I hadn’t thought about and of course Reiters haven’t. it may be entirely possible that automation is well ahead of what is known in the media. I know BMW have a similar program that they are working furiously on.
I reckon same and now :)
Now ur thinking
PreOrders for anything below $30k for a model 2 would go through the roof. Why not get preorders like the CT? Most of those preorders would convert if the price stays below that mark. Probably in the many millions all over the world.
Problem being us that the preorders for CT were made when the price was way below what it is now, there is a great deal of speculation that not many are going through with it and making a purchase.
Love your vids, Sam, but I think you've got this one wrong. "Model 2" AND robotaxi are both designed for production using the brand new unboxed production method. There's NO evidence in Giga Texas production being cancelled due to labour costs. Unboxed will be the most automated method in history and Elon stated that the production facility (I'm avoiding the term "production line" as it's not a line) WILL be in Austin because that's where the best engineers/designers are. It WILL be built in Austin but all of the first models produced will be robotaxi. "Model 2" (the one with the steering wheel) will come after that *on the same production facility* and by that time the Mexico factory will be there.
My guess is that they'll build vehicles so fast, they'll outstrip not the demand for robotaxis but the cities that will allow them to operate there. I'm expecting a small number of high profile pilot schemes, and any excess production will simply be used up as consumer models of the vehicle platform. If this unboxed method is that good, I think they'll be able to change models really easily. It may just be, 'miss out these 3 steps, send the car to step 14 and 15' and it becomes a robotaxi with no steering wheel and a sealed dash or something. It might even be possible to update one vehicle to the other in the future as required (I mean, obviously it's possible since everything can be disassembled but possible and easily done by a garage).
Agreed.! Get a small fleet of Robotaxis going and then crank out the model 2.
Elon himself said that things were taking too long... so they would start production in Texas ahead of Mexico.
Does that sound like an abandoned project?
Reuters is retarded and legacy media sucks.
The robotaxi will have to prove to governments and to the insurance companies that it reduces accidents on public roads and is in fact safer than a human driver. Until that data is available Tesla will need to build the Model 2 for human drivers.
The legislation allowing it at all is a bigger hurdle but is already underway. The FSD is just an unknowable amount of time/data until it tips over. My expectation is they'll deploy the first cars to places like San Francisco that already allow Waymo etc, and once it's proven not to run people over, other cities and countries will tick the box and let similar test programs start in targeted cities where it's the most useful anyway. Then it'll fall like dominos. End of the day, if SF needs 10,000 robotaxis to eliminate all it's taxis (made up figure) it would take Tesla several months of production ramping from when they pull the trigger to even build them. Each similar city that permits a pilot scheme, will need a bit less time but they'll be production constrained for years
So they can sell say, 10,000 robotaxis, and any other cars they make have steering wheels and go direct to consumers. They won't have trouble shifting any of them.
109%
On paper there's a difference between a 'pause' and a cancellation. In practice, a 'pause' happens until people forget about it, then the cancellation happens quietly with little press attention. It's usually a face-saving measure and nothing more.
There's cutting through hyperbole and inaccurate reporting, and then there's stretching things to make it sound like you weren't wrong by believing everything a company (run by a known liar) says.
It does make sense that the cheaper retail vehicle will only be built right away in Mexico. If that is the case then it won't be available until around 2026-2027. That is a long time away for people to wait. Most people simply won't wait that long. They will get something else. Tesla take a hit on this. The only retail sector that Tesla has not tapped into yet is the below $25,000 sector. The fact that this is potentially a long time away, well. People won't wait and forget about the Robotaxi. That won't hit the streets for years yet. Tesla has not handled this well.
Sam, I think Tesla will still make the robo-taxi in Austin at first.
Tedka knows that their will be years between running taxis in a few choice cities like San Fran and New York versus the entire country.
So I believe the Austin plant will be sufficient to build the initial taxi fleet for the early adopter cities.
Tesla's will work out all the bugs in their taxis software, data center, and fleet management/cleaning before needing to ramp.... by that time I think they will have Giga Mexico ready to go.
As to batteries, a lot of the folks over the 4680 and Cathode buildout in Austin were let go in this RIF. Elon is not happy with their progress. Elon may now be thinking to go full on with building the CATL battery production but scale it up to support the taxis fleet. 4680 production may be completely shifted somehow or continued with new leadership.
There was no way they were going to build M2 this year. Juniper will be later this year and M2 will be late next year. People dont understand how long it takes to design, build, and test a new vehicle assembly line.
M2 2026
The model 2 was going to be in Mexico, but was pulled back to Austin Tx to co-locate engineering and the initial production line. Profit isn't the issue. Ramp an optimally effecient production line with new technology BEFORE building multiple other factories which can then be built effeciently and quickly using proven technology. Think of Austin like the initial 4680 battery proto line at Kato road where the 4680 production line was matured. It could even run with no profit because building a new technology line first remote from engineering would be prohibitively costly in both time and money, if it could be done at all.
100% correct. But because it takes 100+ words to explain this 99% of keyboard warriors not going to read it.
We know from Franz that convincing Elon to make the Model 2 was a chore. Elon thinks the robotaxis are a better investment. The reality there is not that FSD will work soon but rather what government regulations need to be created to allow FSD to be used on public roads. The Model 2 will not have such limitations holding back its sales.
The high interest rates are cutting into automotive sales in general. Combine this with the unanticipated EV industry price war in China and Tesla must be scaling back to balance the books. Something’s gotta give to deal with market conditions. Scaling back during the upcoming recession is necessary financial prudence.
If I remember correctly Tesla plans to build 4 million Model 2 EVs a year in Mexico. That means this plant will export the Model 2 to the global market. With the Model 2 being built in Mexico will likely make it a compelling EV in the global south and open markets to consumers who may not care to buy product made in America.
Car sales are down across the board. Honda sold just 200,000 civics in US last year. I don’t think an economy EV will sell much this year in US. Focusing on FSD is smarter . Build model 2 in China and Mexico for export
They haven’t even started the plant in Mexico? It’s as good as cancelled if they can’t get the Model 2 out the door until TWO years from now!
Good take on all the news, but Sam please, address this question of your statement on shutting down the channel to shut these guys up.
April fools
Yes. Elon needs to push CATL to speed up
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All these stories about not being cancelled are just to keep the share prices high, Tesla/musk are going around the houses again as the the cyber truck. Delays after delays then prices are not what was stated.
Sorry, the Mexico plant pause makes no sense. This plant is 2 years from volume production if they break ground today. They have $30b in the bank. Building the plant and holding off on installation of machinery and hiring might make sense but they have the money to build the shell right now. Scrapping M2 in Austin Also doesn't make sense, the line was well along in construction.
Pausing the work during the company restructuring... OK, I see that.
So there are 2 unanswered questions that need clearing up. I understand the need for tight control of info during a restructuring and the danger to sales of the Osborne effect, but the fate of the Mexico plant is now a Big WTF combined with rumors that Reuters is spreading about M2 (Name the thing or its the Model 2). Ping ponging M2 back and forth from Austin to Mexico also seems unlikely.
Really can't wait to 8/8 to get clarity on M2 and Mexico or the stock will continue to be attacked by the usual suspects and that will bring unnecessary instability.
Musk predicted 2024 was going to be a slow year (China real estate collapse wiped out a lot of people's savings, US Trillion dollar binges hike inflation And Rates). This would be the time to restructure while record breaking production wouldn't be helpful.
Certainly the rest of the car industry is hurting as well.
Gotta have suppliers
This channel has turned out to be a 'spin' channel for Tesla based on pure speculation
Nah, labour is a fraction of the cost, it honestly doesn't matter at the scale they operate at and robots don't get paid anyway. They've said they'll build out the line in Texas to work on the engineering, get it in a good enough state and then install a duplicate in Mexico, which makes a lot of sense since their existing team don't have to live in Mexico to perform that task, or worse, commute regularly to it.
In any case, the Mexico factory isn't even built yet so they are nowhere near installing machines there. You can't have a gigapress just sitting around under tarpaulin for nine months while builders faff about. We'll know when it kicks off since the drone people will be out, and we'll be able to see how quickly they can build one. Prediction, not as fast as Shanghai - unless, they've learned so much from builds that they've also got a way to lay foundations quicker. I mean, if Boring Company are doing anything like what they should have been doing, they'd be able to lay sewage and utility pipes super easily - but my guess is on a such a project they just cut and shut the underground stuff as there's no existing infrastructure to weave tunnels under and around.
Elon said during the Q4 earnings call that the main reason they want to begin producing the M2 in Texas is because the manufacturing process is supposed to be all-new. This is not sort of an off-the-shelf 'it-just-works' type of thing (direct quote from that call). So, in order to adopt the all-new process, they need Tesla engineers to be sleeping on the manufacturing line, basically.
Now if that is no longer the case, then either the engineers working on that all new production process are all going to relocate to Mexico or China... or they've scrapped the idea of reinventing the process altogether, and they will just build a smaller car based on the M3 / MY process. My bet is the latter.
And it looks like I would have won that bet. The all-new production platform is out of the picture, as per the Q1 investors deck:
"These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up. This update may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected."
It has been said that M2 would be manufactured in China and probably in Mexico. Producing in US may be only happen with lots of government funding and concessions and even higher automation.
People have very short memories. Months ago Tesla stated that they needed the China suppliers chain to be localy in order to reduce cost. The Model 2 is extremeny related to the FSD. The Optimus project is also very tied to the FSD AI, so it makes a lot of sense to push for the FSD AI first in order to make the other 3 projects (Model 2, Robotaxi, Optimus) avery attractive purchase.
It will be cancelled, if Musk's compensation packet is approved (vote on June 3rd). Tesla has to take a loan that is in the same ballpark, what Musk paid for Twitter, if it is approved. They do not have cash for it.
Tesla Model 2 is the stepping stone to the Robotaxi.
If they want the Robotaxi, they need to now focus on the Model 2.
I too am very surprized/disappointed Tesla is pulling back on the Model 2.
Very. IF TRUE i think Elon is frankly risking his entire company right now.
He is positioned to lead with the Model 2.
Pulling back on his future most profitable model anywhere, just as it is about to be released, is a serious miscalculation.
Really.
Elon I completely support you, but this is a catastrophic mistake.
The Model 2 should be developed and released, in the USA, immediately.
Made in America.
Now.
A recurring problem at Tesla seems to be economic paranoia. The economy is fine. Stocks are up. Economy is growing faster that it has in decades. Jobs are easy to get. Tesla has an interest rate problem which is can solve through something like GMAC and it has a production problem which was self inflicted by a stall out in factory production and getting distracted by CT. The blame for this goes to the top.
I have always thought this whole issue was about spreading uncertainty to avoid the Osborn effect on the 3/Y and also a positive response to the latest FSD incarnation and its impact on Robotaxi plans. If model 2 were to be cancelled, where would lead Mexico and India ?
I don't know how Mr Musk and the Tesla team are doing so well with all the things they've got going on I'm quite baffled
The line to build the model 2 isn't even built yet. Like I have said many times Elon's outbursts on X have all an underlying tone of interest rates, it's too expensive to borrow the money to expand rapidly at the moment. Yes they have the cash but they rather borrow at low rates.
The reason the Model 2 was to initially be produced in TX was because that is where the experts at setting up the lines lived. Then that was to be copied in Mexico. Shouldn't that be in the conversation?
Model 2 is going to be several segments built on one architecture using multiple factories, as a guess as to Teslas long range plan to produce 20 million cars a year.
😂
Sounds like they are still going to build them in Texas to work out the process. They just don't plan to sell them to consumers. Robo taxis only
As late as 2026 is a long time & they very well may have a lot more competition to contend with. Think of those 'hords' coming up behind them.
Model 2 production is only going to work if the volumes are huge, and that's going to involve the Unboxed process. If the Robotaxi is going to share most of the platform, it could be that Tesla will make that with the Unboxed method to test it out. Robotaxi production volumes are never going to be anywhere near as big as the Model 2. Even if Level 5 autonomy was here now, the idea that Robotaxis would somehow displace a significant amount of car ownership doesn't make sense. Sure, it might reduce the cost of taking a Taxi, but who uses Taxis anyway? Compared to the number of people using other public transport and their own cars, it's tiny. The only people who are going to lose out are Taxi drivers, and there will likely be a few more of them.
If I have a car at home, I'm sure as hell not going to take a Taxi anywhere, be it driven by a human or AI.
Probably feeling the need to focus on the Model Y refresh.
model "2" is as important as model y. they have to bring it to market and all problems are solved, because it will sell even better than y. in markets like germany the model 3 isnt selling well enough. its y und 2 what really moves. i anticipate if tesla is concentrating on juniper and something smaller than 3, it will be able to beat even the chinese makers. remember, in europe markets the people tend to suvs much more than to cars like sedans (model 3). the y sells 5 to 6 times as much as model 3 for example in germany.
And I would also advise Elon to make a more attractive financing offer for the Model Y, because there is currently an extremely negative mood in Germany and a lot of uncertainty when it comes to e-mobility. inflation is high, the economy is weakened. the people hold their money. In order to counter this stupid trend, very strong short-term and temporary impulses are necessary, in my opinion. tesla is very, very important for the ev market. especially in germany.
People in Germany are totally unsettled because completely contradictory political signals are being given. For example, official e-mobility is preferred, but in return electricity is becoming increasingly expensive and gasoline remains relatively cheap. A very important electric bonus has also abruptly disappeared in Germany, and people are buying combustion engines like crazy again.
tesla has the might to change this trend. i hope they know it and act like that. even if this imposes a temporarily lower benefit, the long term effects will be absolutely satisfying. proper anticipation is key now.
All Tesla need to do is re-engineer the model three into a hatchback. I don’t know why they insist on not doing this. I can only imagine they think it will cannibalise their own model Y sales. I think demand varies with countries because here in the UK there are only 23 available for delivery model threes in the entire country. So someone is buying them!! And of course by buying them I mean renting. This makes it easier for people to think short term because it’s not their problem after three years when they hand the keys back.
@@ouethojlkjn would be a good idea, yes. Simply a shortened Model 3.
@@ouethojlkjn ok, in germany no one wats sedans. Model 3 sells, yes, but notmally no one buys sedans.
Tesla is having some growing pains at the moment. Producing cars with faults, non desirable features, stock price crashing, poor sales, etc. You can see why they’ve put off the model 2
i wonder if it is because they have reached a step that they need either a new factory or space to build to make progress on the model 2 so they have shifted towards robotaxi while they wait for whatever is stopping them.
Robotaxi will need FSD to be FULL. and that is why they have the free month of FSD they need the data and for a month they will get it.
Tesla seems to be doing 25 things at once while they are still building the factory or making expansions or...
so putting something on the back burner may mean a delay on release (tesla has never done this) or a change in what will actually be built (again tesla would never).
There are so many things being adjusted and worked on i dont know how they keep up... and now they have the juice peddle issue on the cybertruck causing a slight backup of 600-800 cybertrucks on the outbound and overflow lots while they do the fix.
Still remember Electric Viking said CCP could be holding up model 2 giga factory may be because Telsa will overtake China manufacturers
Hahaha that theory fell through!
Model 2 was approved but Tesla have Not yet get Model 2 & factory ready in Mexico or China.
Whatever, other China small size cars are here abet very expensive in EU, & may be in UK too
Not what EU is saying cheap China BEV, China BEV ain't cheap in EU though at present
After the first delays of the Mexico Gigafactory by Mexican bureaucrats, Mexico effort was suspended and I believe will be cancelled. India may be on the front burner. The robocab will be built in Austin and hopefully Texas cities will be the initial test market for a run of 12K units for test. Data from this will then be used for NTSC validation of FSC software.
Problem there is that the states have to approve it individually.
KEY FACT: MUSK HAS MADE NO CLEAR POSITIVE STATEMENT ON MODEL 2 Sam & co should not have to speculate
The $25K Tesla never made any sense to me. For a low price you need a big production run, for big sales you need big range, for big range you need a big (>50kWh) battery, to fit that battery you need a pretty big car. So now you basically have a Model 3 and that can't be build for $25K and even if it could it would wipe out sales of the real Model 3.
They could possibly be saving it for their India factory that was being talked about recently.
You have understood wrongly the physics of the equation vehicle size/battery size/range. It goes the exact inverse that you wrote.
When you grow the size of a vehicle, you have to grow the capacity of the battery over-proportionally to maintain an identical range, which in turns increase weight, which in turns require a bigger battery. This can turn into a vicious circle, and end up with a monstrosity such as the Hummer EV.
Inversely, if you go towards a smaller vehicle, you enter into a virtuous circle, and can save a lot on battery size, and hence weight and costs.
So a compact model, with a height identical to the Model 3, but 2-3'' narrower and 25-30'' shorter, would weigh 25-30% less, and be fine with a ca. 40 kWh battery, which will give it a range somewhat longer than the Model 3 RWD.
With the manufacturing volume of such a vehicle, my best guess... but that part is only a guess... is that it will come out at a price of less than $25k.
@@st-ex8506 The most efficient EV currently available needs 24kWh for 100 miles so your 40kWh battery would get it ~160 miles of range. Nobody actually buys low range EVs like that anymore. If we assume that the mass market demands 300 miles of range you would actually need more like a 70kWh battery to hit the really big sales numbers. So no, there will be no Model 2.
@@tellyboy17 @tellyboy17 The Aptera is an EV, isn't it? It gets 250 miles of range on a 25 kWh battery. THAT on is probably the most efficient EV. Your example is a SMALL EV, not an efficient one! The Nissan Leaf, which has a 24 kWh battery, perhaps?
But closer to our topic:
- The Model 3 RWD gets 272 miles of range with a 57.5 kWh battery.
- A "Model 2", assuming same aerodynamic coefficient (it will likely be better), same drive train efficiency (it will likely be better, if only because of narrower tires), and assuming the dimensions and weight reductions I mentioned in my previous comment, putting it in the compact car category, will need a battery around 25% smaller to get the same range, so in the 40-45 kWh range... demonstrably NOT in the 70 kWh range!!!
- The mass market does NOT need 300 miles of range for a car that will NOT be a "road cruiser", but much more of a commuter. I have that much range with my Model 3 LR, and I maybe need it 2 or 3 times a year despite me driving quite a lot! It's a lot of weight to move around uselessly 98% of the time, and a lot of cash invested in a marginally useful capability.
Range, over ca. 200 miles of real-life range, is a pretty useless luxury... what is necessary is a good charging network, and Tesla has an outstanding one in most places. I agree that if you live in ND, then it might perhaps be a good idea to wait a few more years before buying an EV. But over here in Europe, we can travel everywhere with ZERO range anxiety.
The "Model 2" is much awaited in Europe, where even the Model 3 is too much of a car, in both size and price, for a large chunk of the market.
@@st-ex8506 Nobody buys Aptera. Nobody buys Leaf. Doesn't matter what you tell people what they need, the mass market will decide for itself what it needs. If the range isn't there, the sales aren't there. An improvement of 25% over current best practice for a real car will not happen. So yeah, maybe if Tesla gets 275 miles out of 57kWh my initial estimate of 50kWh is closer to the mark (but not for a 300 miles EV..)and that takes us back to the Model 3 equivalent car. Again: Model 2 will not happen.
$20K price will be tough as dollar continues to devalue.
This guy never says anything bad about poor quality tesla , he gets paid from tesla probably
Stick around he’s legit
If they've finally got self-driving on the cusp of working then making robo-taxis is much more profitable then selling cars and Y's and 3's are more appealing for renting than mini cars.
Even if they have (and not many are buying it) they then have to jump through the regulatory hoops IN EVERY STATE to get approval and what do you think will happen after the first fatality involving a robotaxi (whether it was the Tesia at fault or not)? One of the biggest questions is who is liable in the case of an accident? I can see Tesla’s lawyers being extremely busy.🙂
@@tatata1543 Teslas will have to have 5% or less the death rate of non autonomous cars to get accepted.
They will start production in Texas, perfect it, and then start producing in Mexico when the factory is ready.
I wouldn't hurry to release a cheap car. Chinese companies are going to fight to the death for a while after which a settled market will be ready to enter.
Time will tell.
Built somewhere out of the states and it won't benefit from the federal tax credit.
Cheers mate
I expect the next generation car to be built almost 100% automated with minimal workers
Ok, lets have a talk about LABOR. Model 2 Unboxed should reduce Man hours by a large margin. Labor should be a factor, but not the only factor. Environmental and regulatory costs , supply chain, Taxes, transportation. That is where the costs exceed LABOR. I do not agree with delaying model 2 in favor of FSD TAXI, as no city or state has yet allowed that vehicle or business model to exist.
I am in it for shareholder value. The stock was supported and has a high PE. based on shareholder belief in the visions and plans that have been stated by Elon. If they cannot grab a direction and bring it to fruition, Why are we in it?. I have always believed that this company could and would make a car that destroys the entire industry for cost and price. Cost is the keyword here.
Elon is pulling a Henry Ford, for cost and sales and volume and margins and vertical intergration as a business model. This is History. I wont take $420, soo treat me like a shareholder. Don`t beat me up so you can steal it back in a tender offer.
The tragedy of EVS takes place in the Congo where children are enslaved and suffer and die in the cobalt mines. Lithium mines also kill people living near them.
Tesla make model 2,but then realised,it can sell it for more then 25k,it will call it Robo Taxi,very simply.
Sam, you are right, it's all about timing.
More time to get the CATL high efficiency batteries into production, more time to fine tune the Model 2 design, and more time to allow the sub contractors to get setup in Mexico to provide parts.
Put Optimus In SUPPLIERS factories
The Chinese already have cars at this $25,000 price. I think the technical aspects of sub-sections of the car maybe proving more difficult....and these aspects are crucial to delivering at such a low price. Of course I know nothing and this is just a guess.