Hahahahaha I did find that funny, how he repeatedly references the author's clear intentions but rebukes them xD I like these theories better though. More intricate :D
the main problem is probably that GRRM never wrote a game of thrones with the intention that Joffrey was the one who tried to have Bran killed, since in the first book it isn't even up for question to the viewers that someone besides Jaime and Cersei tried to have him killed.
@@ufoash1066well, was the conversation Jon had with Mance in the same book? It’s just like GRRM to say “I reveal it in this book”, and reveal it but distract you with a more obvious but wrong solution to the mystery in the same book.
@bobmcbob9856 To be quite fair, GRRM says that ASOS would reveal who tried to have Bran killed and it's in ASOS that we learn that Mance infiltrated Winterfell with a bag of silver. So if you support the theory that it was Mance, GRRM's words about how ASOS would reveal the truth about the matter still make sense.
Hold on Mance, the Stark children weren't allowed to bring their wolves to the feast. Jon notes this, Ghost was only able to come in because they weren't anywhere the dais. (Jon I aGoT)
Uchiha Shadow I know, my point was that he forgets sometimes, so maybe while writing the ch. With Mance talking to Jon, he forgot that most of the wolves were not at the feast
Me when I first finished the books: “I won’t watch theory videos, I don’t want possible spoilers” Me, one year later: *watches these videos again ad again*
Bran has a dire wolf named Summer. Robb has a dire wolf named Grey Wind. Bran nearly dies. Grey Wind and Death. Greyscale is called the Grey Death. Shireen tried to kill Bran, CONFIRMED.
I always just kind of assumed it was either Joffrey or Littlefinger, and when you first brought up Mance I didn't buy it at all, but you completely convinced me! It makes way more sense than if it had been Joffrey! Littlefinger is equally plausible if you only look at in-canon material, but GRRM said he'd reveal the murderer in aSoS. In that book, nothing is really revealed about Littlefinger that implies his involvement. Mance, on the other hand, has that really weird and out of place exposition dump/monologue to Jon, where he for whatever reason reveals he went to Winterfell around that time.
We put so much thought into this stuff. I swear we give GRRM far too much credit. If half of what we obsess about in these books is actually resolved by the final installment, it would be a miracle. I won't be holding my breath
Mance wouldn’t need to scale the wall, he could have easily gone through the weirwood gate at the nightfort, as he IS a black brother. This also wouldn’t be something he would mention to John, in order to keep this option available.
If Mance knew about the Black Gate, he would have led the Wildlings through it. It seems to be a well kept secret that was perhaps discovered by Bloodraven or Coldhands
@@Palisades2 and considering Mance was stationed primarily at the Shadow Tower, way off at the western end of the wall, there's no reason he would ever visit the unmanned Nightfort and discover the black gate. I also wonder if the gate is capable of determining the current status of a black brother; i.e. whether they're a deserter/wight or if it let's you in as long as you have said your vows in front of a weirwood at any time.
@@Palisades2 Mance could easily believe it's Magic only allows for a Black Brother who swore in front of a weirwood to pass through the gate. He might not be willing to risk some magical retribution by trying to bring a Wildling along. Awkward if you try and bring your wildlings through a magic gate, only to have a massive block of ice fall and crush them. I think there's definitely merit to the idea that Mance may know about the Black Gate. I think he knows a few secrets about the North others have long forgotten. The sort of man who believes there are truths in old stories told to children...
There is another downside to the Mance theory: he leaves north of the wall, unknowing wheather or not his plan is successful, and unable to coordinate events in it's aftermath. Personaly, Littlefinger is the culprit, assuming a raven can go from Winterfell to King's Landing and back in three weeks.
Ognjen Garić ehh, if the son of the warden of the north is murdered, Mance will find out about it. He did find out the king was going to winterfell afterall
I don't think Littlefinger needed to have communicated with his man in Winterfell. He could've sent him to Winterfell with the instruction of delivering the box to Luwin and then attempting to murder *someone*. Doesn't matter who, doesn't matter if it works, only that the dagger is found. Bran falling from the tower is certainly convenient, but I don't think it was necessary to Littlefinger's plan.
The Order of the Green Hand did a video about this. They think that Littlefinger may have been visited by the three-eyed crow and developed Warg ability himself. Like Bran wargs Hodor, Littlefinger wargs Joffrey. That would fit everything in and solve the distance communication problem. Then they follow up that logic showing some Littlefinger quotes about "knowing a man's desires allows you to move him" and some other xampels where Littlefinger may have infleunced Joffrey.
The idea of Littlefinger being a supernatural warg does fit with the other all-powerful weaklings in the story (Bran, Sweetrobin, Tyrion, Varys, Bloodraven), but if Littlefinger had such abilities you'd expect them to show up more than these scant few occasions. Also, the ability to warg is generally thought to be passed down genetically, and we have no reason to think that Baelish's bloodline contains this ability. I think the point of Littlefinger's character in general is that he doesn't need any supernatural abilities or outrageous amounts of power to manipulate people, he can do it simply with his intellect.
Little Finger would not send a raven with a message like that. It would be way too dangerous and he's way too careful. Just look at the secrecy involved in sending his (Lysa's) message to Catelyn.
Val's discussion with Jon seems to be one from fear. If she saw Bran on Hodor's back I do not think she would have responded with the same hatred. That was just specific to the greyscale which may have some unknown property that only the wildlings remember. Val doesn't want to kill Shireen out of mercy, but out of sheer terror and disgust.
Preston Jacobs - The conversation between Mance and Jon Snow that you cite throughout this video also took place within Storm of Swords, which qualifies it as another possible choice for the explanation of Bran's attempted murder that GRRM mentioned.
I love that, in the intro, the ornate dragonbone and Valyrian steel dagger has become just an iron dagger from Skyrim. The thing that you gather raw materials for and just spam out to grind up your smithing skill because it's so basic and worthless. Should've gone with the dagger from Skyrim that has a hilt of fine metal and a blade of dragonbone, just to fuck with people.
I think Mance is the more likely culprit. Firstly, it's more interesting and that's right up GRRM's alley. Secondly, there was a good chance that Littlefinger's agent, if that's what the catspaw was, would be captured and interrogated, possibly tortured especially if Robert decided to get involved to help out Ned. He could betray who he worked for. Now it's probable that many of Baelish's agents don't know who they work for, just being ears on the street looking to make a quick buck. But Baelish wouldn't have many ears in the North, meaning he would need to place his agents more carefully into more dedicated positions, meaning they would more strongly tie back to him, and he'd be less likely to risk their capture. As random people selling information would be very unreliable. Especially seeing as the Starks were loved by the common folk living near Winterfell. Also, with less agents, he might have doubled up on the one he used, meaning if the agent was captured it could risk the knowledge of Lysa's letter being made public Mance on the other hand, could have scoped out the freeriders to find a likely assassin, and also made it clear he would be hanging around Winterfell to take his silver back by force if the job was not done. And once the job was done, or at least attempted, he doesn't have to worry about it tying back to him at all. Even if the Catspaw lived and was interrogated to describe the man who hired him, everyone would assume the man responsible would be journeying south, where the Starks had enemies and where he could blend in with Robert's procession. No one would think the killer is heading north. Also, as for it being more interesting, Jon and Mance still have potential to interact with each other in the story, if Jon is resurrected. And if Resurrected Jon is changed in personality, to some degree like Lady Stoneheart, he might be extremely vengeful if he were to find out Mance tried to kill his little brother.
Wouldnt Bran's fall give Doran an opportunity to make his enemies fight each other? Ser Aron Santagar controlled the actual access to the dagger and he had the specific knowledge of the dagger. If all the Doran Hype is real he shouldve been involved with the conflict from the start, he at least had the means of communication, motive and a asset in place to make a move and like the other suspects all the results benifit him as well. Moreover the note wouldnt Mance in all his interactions with Jon say something about a potential mecry killing of his little half brother? Besides killing Starks would enrage the North and make them hate wildlings even more? it seems counter productive. I cant be sure but Varys and Little Finger seemed to improvise together on the dagger which leads me to suspect the other master schemer in the story.
Great videos, as always. I enjoy your analyses on all of these subjects, thank you for that. However, this mystery has been solved. In the official World of Ice and Fire mobile app, it explicitly states that it was Joffrey. It reads, "After overhearing Robert's claim that men could end the suffering of a horse with a broken leg or a dog that has gone blind, but that they are too weak to end the suffering of a crippled child, Joffrey steals a Valyrian dagger from his father and hires a servant to kill Bran."
This became my favorite theory/analysis since the faceless man video. I accepted littlefinger did it some time ago, but you opened up my mind once again to the possibilities
Hope it's been closed by now. Preston's garnered quite a following, and for no good reason. Perhaps it's just a matter of being an early bird to catch the worm, but there are so many better ASOIAF theory channels out there who don't implicated Mance in everything that I just don't know why anyone would take Preston seriously anymore.
But the 2nd main reason Preston said Mance was because he would be "compassionate" to kill infected or injured kids. The other reason, being create chaos for Wildling benefit. Stealing Robert's dagger as a symbol of Mance's bravery is very Wildling doctrine.
The second point is more to show that Mance was capable of killing an innocent and disabled child to further his motives because he would see it as a mercy rather than a cold blooded murder. It is there to solidify Perston's first reason which many might dismiss claiming Mance is not so cruel to kill a innocent boy just to create conflict. This means he can sacrifice Bran to accomplish his goal but doesn't mean he would go out of his way to kill Bran.
I must say Preston, I love your theories. With that said, I actually feel like this is the theory that has, by far, the most likely probability of being true. Littlefinger being the culprit is an old thought of mine and Mance actually had quite a bit of compelling reasoning.
Great video! I thought for sure you were going to say Littlefinger was the culprit, but now I think Mance is much more likely. I've always thought he was really suspicious! His reasons for getting south of the wall never made sense to me. I wonder if he wasn't given some kind of prophecy by a woods witch north of the wall and then tried to kill Bran because he is the most magical Stark child and certain to have an integral part in any magical conflict to happen during the coming winter.
I've always believed Mance sent the catspaw based solely on the bag of silver. Joffrey is a blood royal and heir to the iron throne. He doesn't even carry money and if he did he wouldn't have silver. Mance makes note of the direwolf, mhich means he tells the catspaw that Bran will be alone when he knows he won't. The direwolf predictably kills the catspaw, which means Bran wasn't meant to be killed. Like Discord and the apple "For the fairest," the point was to sow conflict. You bring up a great point about the insane journey given the risks. And if I'm not mistaken the journey back is when he first meets Dalla, his supposed "true queen" who pretty much knows everything and will bear his child. Pretty successful mission all in all. Maybe the MOST SUCCESSFUL MISSION OF ALL TIME. Given that Mance is currently in Winterfell again, I have to wonder if on his first journey to Winterfell he was meant to leave something and this time he is meant to retrieve it.
My theory is that Mance actually came to Winterfell to steal away Sansa for his queen, but it fails when she ends up going south with the King. Meanwhile, he learns about Bran and the Lannister feud, so he capitalizes on the opportunity.
Everytime I hear a new theory of yours I think that is ludicrous! But then slowly, listening to all the evidence, I begin to believe it... I guess I've now become a fully fledged song-of-ice-and-fire-conspiracy, nut :-P
Perhaps Littlefinger sent an agent from the beginning, with the implicatory dagger, with the express purpose of assasinating either a Stark or someone close to the Starks. It just so happened that Bran became the ideal target. Littlefinger understands the opportunity the dagger gives him well before he even plots to kill Jon Arryn. Think of what he has before enacting that plot. He has Lysa and the dagger. Surely while brooding over his plans he thinks of placing the dagger in the hands of an assasin. So it doesn't seem unlikely that he would have the foresight to send the agent with the King's band north to further spark tension between the Starks and Lannisters. That also explains why the catspaw would have the dagger in the first place, paid in silver by the agent who presumably has the intelligience to target Bran however many days after the Lannisters leave.
I think that the reveal of who sent a dagger to murder Bran was not when Joffrey was talking about valyrian steel but rather when Tyrion told that he would never have bet against his own kin, thus revealing Petyrs lie about the dagger. Thus i conclude it was littlefinger
Production values coming along nicely. Great discussion, never would have thought of Mance. Another issue is Mance is playing with fire as Bran is now part of his Tree-god net so...
Mance doesn't just ride to *Winterfell* He rides *past* Winterfell, a day's ride *south* of Winterfell. It's just one day, though it stills adds another 24 hours to Mance's travels, and he travels *south* no less. Having said that, I *do* think Mance is the likeliest candidate for hiring the catspaw. Plus, he *tells* Jon this tale of riding to Winterfell to see the king *in* A Storm of Swords, the book GRRM said would reveal who was behind the catspaw once and for all (and he wouldn't lie to Jeff). P.S. And Val means that hemlock is a secure way to *kill* a child with greyscale when she says it's a "sure cure", rather than *save* it, right? And *why* does her cartoon character look so butch? You could support individual antlers 12ft in length on that neck.
As for little finger- I thought the ravens are the purview of the masters so how would little fingers catspaw get the dagger & be instructed to use it to kill Bran. Also was he supposed to leave it there to be discovered because the catspaw kept saying that no one was supposed to be there?
Preston, have you ever done a video on who the hooded man who almost stabs theon in DwD might be? He only released his blade and spared him when he saw that theon was tortured and broken. It's a mystery I'd love to hear your insight on. If he was supposed to be there, he'd already know theon was in winterfell. If he wasn't, how'd he get in?
I believe it was LittleFinger. Everything fits so perfectly togethor yet with Mance it's still not certain how that certain dagger played in and if the catspaw succeeded or not, if that would of caused the war as a whole. Yea it did, but there were alot of other things that helped, like Jon Arryns death, Roberts Death, and that was by Littlefinger trying to start the war. It would make sense that the catspaw part was by Little Finger too.
Once again Preston, you amaze me with your deduction and reasoning. Normally I try not to believe theories, but "Killing Bran" is one of the few amazing, exceptions. Keep up the good work dude 👌
A thought, if it was Joffrey he may have given the highly valuable dagger as part of the payment, or even the entire payment, the silver could have been the assassin's life savings.
Maybe mance stole the knife and just picked out the hardest-to-miss knife he could find so that they knew for certain that the person who hired the catspaw was with Robert
Why does anyone think the Dagger was Littlefinger’s to begin with? Just as he lied that it went to Tyrion, he likely lied that it was his to begin with.
As Mance has bragged about climbing towers to infiltrate, I think it makes more sense that he stole the dagger and gave it to the catspaw rather the the catspaw stole it. Mance could have snuck into Roberts room and stole it
Doesn't it make more sense that Cersei tried to do it and tried to set up Tyrion since she hates him? Cersei is an idiot, so in her mind she would be killing Bran to cover up the affair, and setting up Tyrion as the culprit to try and get rid of him. Of course, since it's Cersei the plan falls through, but that seems to make the most sense to me.
Spoiler alert for Dream of Spring: It actually was Tyrion who tried to kill Bran all along. Future-Bran used the Weirwood Net to influence past-Tyrion to give the dagger to the Catspaw. Bran attempted to fucking kill himself in the past after watching the Game of Thrones finale, supposing that if he weren't in the picture, Jon or Gendry or literally anybody else might end up as King for a more satisfying conclusion.
living the new format i had a few questions preston: when is the tyrell master plan coming you teased it in one your dorne videos do you think lewin martell was complicit in the dornish masterplan since you claimed it was made before elia died
There seems problems with all of these angles. I think the question becomes more interesting if you ask: why would someone want to burn the library down?
I often rewatch your videos, and the videos of others (though frankly yours are among the best), before re-reading the books. I often think Mance is the most likely to have been the one who attacks Bran. I like your theory, and the only details I think you've missed a couple of things. But I think you brought it up in another video. That Mance using Robert's dagger might be an attempt to drive a wedge between Stark and Baratheon. Also, I wonder if the library fire, regardless of who hired the catspaw, was an attempt to specifically destroy key knowledge. Afterall Tyron mentions explicitly that their library had a number of rare books and scrolls. It's luck that he took certain books with him to the wall. Maybe there were certain histories which explained how previous Kings of the North defeated their contemporary King beyond the wall. As for the travel, I feel like this is Mance trying to mess with Jon. I believe, with little evidence other than connecting some off the cuff remarks and other dots throughout the series that if Mance did go to Winterfell it was as a passenger on a ship to White Harbour from Eastwatch by the sea. Haggen talks about trading with the men at Eastwatch and it is ruled by a Pyke, someone who seems more likely to bend the rules rather than be a stickler especially as they are clearly having issues haggling for trade goods. This might imply that they are interested in any money they can get their hands on, and potentially easily bribed. It's not like anyone north of the wall has use for money, which begs the question as to how Mance got the coin in the first place, for all we know he was a regular at East watch playing his lute for sailors, which might imply relationships and familiarity with the ships and their crew, which again might imply this as his route. It's a huge stretch but it makes way more sense to me that he didn't actually do the epic trek that he claimed. Why would he tell Jon this though? I think it's too see how gullible he is and also to see how well he knows the wall and the lands surrounding it. I'd wager that any veterans of the watch would call him a liar to his face. That his trek would be impossible. This is all a bit wild, but it's certainly possible, especially as it is Mance we're talking about here. Thoughts? I don't like reading too much into things, but I feel like this fits nicely based off of some subtle hints elsewhere in the series.
new theory: Preston Jacobs is Bill Bill O'Reilly. Bill tiles his books " Killing (name of character)" just like this video. Bill is no longer working, Preston is uploading more often. Coincidence? I think not.
It could have been something like this: after Bran is in a coma, Cersei and Jamie talk about maybe killing bran, either as an act of mercy so a child isn't in a coma for the rest of his life, or so that bran doesn't wake up and tell how he fell. While discussing this, an agent overhears them, sends a detailed letter about what's going on, littlefinger decides to improvise a plan to cause more chaos on top of the chaos from John Arryn's death and manages to make cersei hire a catspaw to kill bran, while making her think it was her idea. Mance Rayder notices the catspaw or sees the catspaw being hired and during a point where the festivities are dying down a bit, confronts the catspaw in a dark area and using his wilding charm, gets as much info about the reason and the event surrounding the catspaw's arrival as possible, and after he learned everything he could, including Bran in a coma, he hires (maybe partly as a merciful act) and gives silver on the spot to the catspaw, telling the catspaw what to do and what exactly to say ("it would be a mercy. He's dead already") and later providing the catspaw with Robert's dagger, stolen from his own tent. After, he was probably going to sneak out back over the wall to his army and wait as Ned gathered up his forces, along with Robert who would probably order the realm to gather up their forces as well to deal with Mance for both intruding on stark lands, killing bran and (for more selfish reasons) wanting him to pay for making Robert look like a fool by sneaking into his tent and stealing from Robert. once the Realm crossed the Wall, with the support of the Night's Watch , Mance would meet them with his army and organize a meeting with the generals and the lords and king etc. to tell them what was going on, hopefully creating and alliance that could hopefully come up with a plan to stop the Others. This plan didn't work though because of the chaos caused by misinterpretation of clues, missed details, Cersei trying to keep quiet on her part and Littlefinger being very good at improvising and lying. After, with the chaos of the war and the Others increasing the speed at which they gather their army, Mance became desperate and decided to hide as many of his people away from the Others as he could while he led the rest of his people, along with the giants, to force the Night's watch and the north at least to fight back and either lose and be forced to listen to the Wildlings about the Others or be forced to fight the Others after beating the Wildling attack
"Why would you provide the dagger" What if the dagger was the payment? We're told by Robb that he was paid 90 silver stags due to what was found among his possessions, but how did they come to that conclusion? Did they just assume all the money sitting there was his fee, it's not impossible that some or all of it was money from the last job he did.
inoccence v arrogance and mercy v vicious are actually perfect parallels, helping us to understand joffs character better, as well as confirming that through any view point familiar enough with joffreys intentions, could conclude that he had done the deed. Joff fancied himself the former, and thought he understood the former as necessary evils rather than as his own flaws. He considered himself infallible in every respect for his supposed royalty. If going north served any poetic purpose for the boy, it was at least to provide evidence that those beliefs were unfounded. The errors inherent to the tale, i think, are the characters, not a fault in the diligence of our author.
I don't think creating turmoil would've been what Mance was up to in Winterfell, in A Dance With Dragons we find out Mance has been spending his time in Winterfell searching through the crypts, my guess is he was there to look for the Horn of Winter, if he could find it and bring down the Wall, that would change everything
Not to mention that creating a feud between the King and the Warden of the North would be great for the wildling invention. If Mance was the one ordering the assassination, would it not make sense for him wanting the blade to be Roberts? He couldn't have known that Littlefinger would implicate the Lannisters to essentially create the war of the five kings. He could however have guessed that using the Kings dagger, would create a conflict between Ned and Robert, weakening the North. Sure, he might know that Ned and Robert are good friends, leading Ned to suspect the Lannisters instead, which would still create tension between the WotN and the King, forcing Robert to choose between his wife and friend. What I am trying to say is: If Mance was trying to get Bran killed, it would make more sense to do so hoping the Warden of the North would get on bad terms with the King. More so than trying to start a war. Seeing as the war would be a long shot, that he couldn't have predicted. Weakening the North however, would be something to hope for in this situation. So he might have intentionally chosen the dagger because it was Roberts.
I’d like to propose Two Dagger Theory: the idea that Littlefinger’s valyrian steel, dragonbone hilt dagger was actually two different daggers the whole time. The first one is the one lost in a bet on Joffery’s name day, where Littlefinger can say he lost it in a bet to whoever within the King’s circle he feels like. Meanwhile he has the second dagger, of similar description, that he can use for whatever nefarious deeds he so desires. So losing the bet wasn’t so much a master plan for months in the future, but more planting a tool he could potentially use later (and he, in fact, did use later).
Dammid I had this entire comment already typed out, and then UA-cam decided to act up because I used the tap button. Anyways: You're wrong about little finger's agent. 1. The agent wouldn't be able to communicate with Little Finger. That could only be done with a raven trained to fly to Winterfell from Kingslanding, and it's Kingslanding counterpart. The raven from Winterfell is in possession of Measter Luwin, and would be missed. Especially with the concerns the Starks had regarding Kingslanding and the South. The raven from Kingslanding might be possible. I don't think Maester Pycell would be competent enough to miss it (Maester Pycell is an incompetent oaf). But traveling all the way with a raven from Kingslanding to Winterfell would be difficult under normal circumstances. It'd be neigh impossible to do so while traveling with the Kings party. 2. Little finger would only arm the catspawn with the dagger if he wanted the dagger to be found by the starks. But that would require the catspawn to be caught with it during the act. The starks might be naive, but they wouldn't believe an assassin would leave a valarian dagger at the scene of the crime. 3. The catspawn is: 3a. Loyal waiting for a week after being paid to do the job. 3b. Competent though overzealous lighting the library on fire to create a distraction. 3c. Determined. Continuing the attempt with Catlyn in the room. 3d. Moral. Having to convince himself it's a mercy to kill the child. 3e. Disposable (see point 2) Little finger might be able to get an agent that's some or even most of these things, but not all. He can't inspire loyalty from smart honourable people. And if he somehow could, that agent would be too valuable sacrifice just so he could later lie to Catlyn that the dagger belonged to Tyrion. And there's something you're not seeing about Mance either. You're right climbing the wall alone is dangerous, walking across the gift and new gift alone as a wildling is dangerous. Buying a horse on Ulmer lands alone is dangerous. Mance would be safer if he travelled with a loyal friend. We only have Mance word for it that he traveled alone, mance who wouldn't want to tell John that he traveld with the would be assassin of his brother. Mance traveled to Winterfell not just to see all the faces he wanted to see (although I honestly think that might have played a role). But also to raid Winterfells libary and explore the catacombs. Keeping that in mind the catspawn suddendly makes more sense. loyal. Mance is certainly capable of inspiring loyalty. Competent and suddendly not overzealous. Burning the library no longer only creates a distraction, but also hides the fact that Mance raided it before. Stealing scroles that the Starks would miss, and aid him in his eventual conquest of the North. Determined. The catspawn would be from the Free folk and understand that this move would destabilize the North and 7 Kingdoms. Making the future of the Free folk easier. Moral. Killing a child like Brann would be the moral thing according to Free Folk, even though they might find it hard. No longer disposable. The assassin wasn't meant to fail, and wasn't meant to be caught. The catspawn understood the value of Valerian steel, and stole it when it saw the chance. He was meant to escape with it.
My issue with the Littlefinger agent theory is that, at that point in time, Littlefinger was still obsessed with Catelyn and one would assume that he would instruct the agent not to hurt her (or perhaps not to hurt any other Stark besides Bran if he was trying to avoid specificity). I can’t remember the scene verbatim but I seem to recall the catspaw coming at Catelyn with pretty murderous intent. I like the idea of Mance but then there is the issue of killing the child of one’s host. If we take him at his word and he assumed that guest right would preclude him from being executed then one would assume that it would ‘cut both ways’. Unless the fact that he was no longer a guest at Winterfell when the assault happened avoids this? Or sending an agent was meant to absolve him of guilt because he didn’t actually commit the deed? But then Walder Frey never killed any wedding guests himself but he is rightfully condemned as having defiled guest right. I have no idea. But great video as always!
The argument about providing a dagger can be easily resolved. The dagger was given to kill Bran because it was as payment, the dagger would be very rare and expensive.
Do you think the fact that the word "bran" actually means "crow" or "raven" (I'm not sure which) in one or possibly more of celtic languages is an allusion or just a coincidence?
I know I'm late too this but I've just reread the Cat chapter where Littlefinger says Tyrion won the dagger from him. What's going on with Varys at the end of the chapter? It says he's looking at Catelyn's face as Lf tells her about the daggers "owner. " 1) Why doesn't he out Lf as a liar? 2) If this info is new to him why is his attention on Cat not the person speaking?
I remember Preston said something about that in a littlefinger video. The reason Varys said nothing is because telling the truth that it was Robert's dagger would escalate things in king's landing potentially starting a war. Littlefinger pins it on Tyrion who is conveniently not in king's landing and an easy scapegoat. Varys doesn't want screw up the realm just yet because Aegon and the golden company are not ready to invade.
Maybe, but if it was intended to be that it would be weird for him to actually use it for the kill, or for the culprit to instruct him to use it. Unnecessarily conspicuous and a real waste if it gets lost somehow. Also, it's honestly way too valuable for that dirt job. And then giving it to the catspaw beforehand.. he would totally run off with something that rare. It's a good thought tho, and there are probably points speaking for that idea, points I can't see right now because I'm personally arguing against it and also sleep deprived.
@@glanni Remember: some people are dumb, and carrying a hidden weapon inside a known place of commerce etc. was forbidden back then. So no, he might not even have his sword/dagger with him inside Winterfell. 🤔
Great video Preston. Just one note: I don't think Mance's trip to Winterfell was just made on a whim. Most probably, I think it was a covert intelligence gathering mission. If you are planning on a large scale invasion and you expect the Starks fighting you once you cross the Wall, you might want to catch a glimpse of the roads and defenses - as well as the men you are going up against themselves.
The box with the lens arrived BEFORE Bran's fall. IIRC, it was the night of the welcoming feast. The letter was the final piece to get Ned to head south. I do agree that this was likely a Littlefinger plant. Remember, Kat did not leave Bran's bedside even to wish Ned farewell, so the whole scene with Lewin, Ned, and Kat had to be prior to the fall. I do like the idea that Mance may have been behind it though. As for the dagger, just because Littlefinger claimed it was his does NOT make it his -- it could have been the catspaws all along. Claiming it was his would allow Littlefinger to sow even more distrust and discord into the mix. He would never turn down such an opportunity.
Now, should we determine the degree to which Littlefinger and the Mance may have been in communication or cahoots. After all, neither of them have the stability or security of T7KoW at heart. And both are resourceful traders in goods, information and intrigue.
An argument against Littlefinger sending the catspaw is that it was supposed to be mercy. Nothing about Petyr suggests he would do this for mercy, and that aspect is fairly important in this whole debacle. We even have a direct comparison - Robert explicitly refers to killing a dog when he goes blind, and Baelish keeps an old, blind dog alive at the Fingers.
well you have to remember he said to Catlyn she wasn't supposed to be there. so if he got away with it it wouldn't have mattered what knife killed the boy. because he wouldnt leave the blade behind.
May I offer a reason Joffrey might have supplied the dagger? A fancy dagger, that was worth keeping? The point, for a vicious and cruel prince, was to keep the dagger as a trophy. The dagger that killed Brandon Stark, the crippled prince of Winterfell. After all, the catspaw was not supposed to be discovered, and the idea of the catspaw being caught, and the dagger traced back, wasn't even considered. Could have happened. I don't say it did, I say it could have.
To be honest, the Little Finger plan doesn't need active communication, only 2 spies: One spy waits on Winterfell (or the surrounding area) and the other is part of Robert's tail. The spy from the tail brings the looking glass and the message to the master, while giving the spy in Winterfell the dagger and the order "if you have the opportunity to kill one of the Stark sons, do it and leave the dagger".
Awww was hoping you'd go Full Preston 😉 I've thought it was Mande for a while but have always been stumped by how exactly he got his hands on the dagger. It's the fly in the ointment for any theory I think ... Are you sure you're done with murder mysteries? What about Doreah? She might not have been murdered, but she has a weird death. Regardless, great video and looking forward to the night's watch series! 😊
Mance Rayder makes the most sense. IMO Mance is the most interesting side character, as he seems to embody everything that is wanted in a king. Plus he's 10 times more educated, intelligent, and cultured than any wildling we see. Mance is more like a westerosi nobleman than a half wildling half knights watchman.
GRRM: “Here’s who is responsible for sending the cats paw.”
PJ: “Will we ever find out the truth?”
Hahahahaha I did find that funny, how he repeatedly references the author's clear intentions but rebukes them xD
I like these theories better though. More intricate :D
the main problem is probably that GRRM never wrote a game of thrones with the intention that Joffrey was the one who tried to have Bran killed, since in the first book it isn't even up for question to the viewers that someone besides Jaime and Cersei tried to have him killed.
@@ufoash1066well, was the conversation Jon had with Mance in the same book? It’s just like GRRM to say “I reveal it in this book”, and reveal it but distract you with a more obvious but wrong solution to the mystery in the same book.
@bobmcbob9856 To be quite fair, GRRM says that ASOS would reveal who tried to have Bran killed and it's in ASOS that we learn that Mance infiltrated Winterfell with a bag of silver.
So if you support the theory that it was Mance, GRRM's words about how ASOS would reveal the truth about the matter still make sense.
I just want to say how much I appreciate your terrible intros. It's an art form.
It's literally painful lol
They’re not terrible at all, pretty peaceful
My brain trembles everytime I see it
"The War of Five Kings played right into Mance's hand... I mean, besides Stannis."
Stannis is the exception. Cue the Mannistage.
That travelling dagger cracks me up.
Thanks a lot, Preston
Hold on Mance, the Stark children weren't allowed to bring their wolves to the feast. Jon notes this, Ghost was only able to come in because they weren't anywhere the dais. (Jon I aGoT)
Good catch! Damn, was Mance even there? Did his agent go?
ArcticTemper
true, but according to Jon I, Bran wasn't even at the feast either so....
ArcticTemper Because Rattleshit told him who was coming with him.
GRRM said that Bran was at the feast, he just forgot to mention him.
Uchiha Shadow
I know, my point was that he forgets sometimes, so maybe while writing the ch. With Mance talking to Jon, he forgot that most of the wolves were not at the feast
Wait so your telling me Sir Pounce didn't send the catspaw?!
Chad Summerchild you would think Tommen would have noted Ser Punce only having 3 paws left if he did
...I fucking hate you Chad.
Chad Summerchild LOL FUCKING CHAD
Chad Summerchild shut the fuck up no one likes you
It's you're, Chad. Fuck.
Me when I first finished the books: “I won’t watch theory videos, I don’t want possible spoilers”
Me, one year later: *watches these videos again ad again*
@@Richard_Nickerson still, ruins the shock therapy
@@putraduha3176 not when the books are taking forever
@@theboy1625 If the books ever come out at all it will be shock enough.
Bran has a dire wolf named Summer.
Robb has a dire wolf named Grey Wind.
Bran nearly dies.
Grey Wind and Death.
Greyscale is called the Grey Death.
Shireen tried to kill Bran, CONFIRMED.
I always just kind of assumed it was either Joffrey or Littlefinger, and when you first brought up Mance I didn't buy it at all, but you completely convinced me! It makes way more sense than if it had been Joffrey!
Littlefinger is equally plausible if you only look at in-canon material, but GRRM said he'd reveal the murderer in aSoS. In that book, nothing is really revealed about Littlefinger that implies his involvement.
Mance, on the other hand, has that really weird and out of place exposition dump/monologue to Jon, where he for whatever reason reveals he went to Winterfell around that time.
"Will we ever find out..." if we did; would you take it at face value?
obviously not
No, then he'd be out of content
We put so much thought into this stuff.
I swear we give GRRM far too much credit. If half of what we obsess about in these books is actually resolved by the final installment, it would be a miracle. I won't be holding my breath
Someone finally says it out loud
Mance wouldn’t need to scale the wall, he could have easily gone through the weirwood gate at the nightfort, as he IS a black brother. This also wouldn’t be something he would mention to John, in order to keep this option available.
He could have gone through the gate, but just told Jon he climbed the wall.
If Mance knew about the Black Gate, he would have led the Wildlings through it. It seems to be a well kept secret that was perhaps discovered by Bloodraven or Coldhands
@@Palisades2 and considering Mance was stationed primarily at the Shadow Tower, way off at the western end of the wall, there's no reason he would ever visit the unmanned Nightfort and discover the black gate. I also wonder if the gate is capable of determining the current status of a black brother; i.e. whether they're a deserter/wight or if it let's you in as long as you have said your vows in front of a weirwood at any time.
@@Palisades2 Mance could easily believe it's Magic only allows for a Black Brother who swore in front of a weirwood to pass through the gate. He might not be willing to risk some magical retribution by trying to bring a Wildling along. Awkward if you try and bring your wildlings through a magic gate, only to have a massive block of ice fall and crush them. I think there's definitely merit to the idea that Mance may know about the Black Gate. I think he knows a few secrets about the North others have long forgotten. The sort of man who believes there are truths in old stories told to children...
Bloodraven did it to ensure a time paradox wasnt created
?
There is another downside to the Mance theory: he leaves north of the wall, unknowing wheather or not his plan is successful, and unable to coordinate events in it's aftermath. Personaly, Littlefinger is the culprit, assuming a raven can go from Winterfell to King's Landing and back in three weeks.
Ognjen Garić ehh, if the son of the warden of the north is murdered, Mance will find out about it. He did find out the king was going to winterfell afterall
I don't think Littlefinger needed to have communicated with his man in Winterfell. He could've sent him to Winterfell with the instruction of delivering the box to Luwin and then attempting to murder *someone*. Doesn't matter who, doesn't matter if it works, only that the dagger is found. Bran falling from the tower is certainly convenient, but I don't think it was necessary to Littlefinger's plan.
The Order of the Green Hand did a video about this. They think that Littlefinger may have been visited by the three-eyed crow and developed Warg ability himself. Like Bran wargs Hodor, Littlefinger wargs Joffrey. That would fit everything in and solve the distance communication problem. Then they follow up that logic showing some Littlefinger quotes about "knowing a man's desires allows you to move him" and some other xampels where Littlefinger may have infleunced Joffrey.
The idea of Littlefinger being a supernatural warg does fit with the other all-powerful weaklings in the story (Bran, Sweetrobin, Tyrion, Varys, Bloodraven), but if Littlefinger had such abilities you'd expect them to show up more than these scant few occasions. Also, the ability to warg is generally thought to be passed down genetically, and we have no reason to think that Baelish's bloodline contains this ability. I think the point of Littlefinger's character in general is that he doesn't need any supernatural abilities or outrageous amounts of power to manipulate people, he can do it simply with his intellect.
Little Finger would not send a raven with a message like that. It would be way too dangerous and he's way too careful. Just look at the secrecy involved in sending his (Lysa's) message to Catelyn.
Val's discussion with Jon seems to be one from fear. If she saw Bran on Hodor's back I do not think she would have responded with the same hatred. That was just specific to the greyscale which may have some unknown property that only the wildlings remember. Val doesn't want to kill Shireen out of mercy, but out of sheer terror and disgust.
I think it's both. Preston's point still works
Preston Jacobs - The conversation between Mance and Jon Snow that you cite throughout this video also took place within Storm of Swords, which qualifies it as another possible choice for the explanation of Bran's attempted murder that GRRM mentioned.
I love that, in the intro, the ornate dragonbone and Valyrian steel dagger has become just an iron dagger from Skyrim. The thing that you gather raw materials for and just spam out to grind up your smithing skill because it's so basic and worthless.
Should've gone with the dagger from Skyrim that has a hilt of fine metal and a blade of dragonbone, just to fuck with people.
LightningNC nah, maybe Preston just searched "dagger" in the Google and picked the first image he found
The dagger, being of valyrian steel and thus worth a great deal of money, was probably part of the bribe in any scenario.
Tommen is never suspected. Yet I would say he has a motive. Bran beats him badly at sparring. Just a thought.
I think Mance is the more likely culprit. Firstly, it's more interesting and that's right up GRRM's alley. Secondly, there was a good chance that Littlefinger's agent, if that's what the catspaw was, would be captured and interrogated, possibly tortured especially if Robert decided to get involved to help out Ned. He could betray who he worked for. Now it's probable that many of Baelish's agents don't know who they work for, just being ears on the street looking to make a quick buck. But Baelish wouldn't have many ears in the North, meaning he would need to place his agents more carefully into more dedicated positions, meaning they would more strongly tie back to him, and he'd be less likely to risk their capture. As random people selling information would be very unreliable. Especially seeing as the Starks were loved by the common folk living near Winterfell. Also, with less agents, he might have doubled up on the one he used, meaning if the agent was captured it could risk the knowledge of Lysa's letter being made public
Mance on the other hand, could have scoped out the freeriders to find a likely assassin, and also made it clear he would be hanging around Winterfell to take his silver back by force if the job was not done. And once the job was done, or at least attempted, he doesn't have to worry about it tying back to him at all. Even if the Catspaw lived and was interrogated to describe the man who hired him, everyone would assume the man responsible would be journeying south, where the Starks had enemies and where he could blend in with Robert's procession. No one would think the killer is heading north. Also, as for it being more interesting, Jon and Mance still have potential to interact with each other in the story, if Jon is resurrected. And if Resurrected Jon is changed in personality, to some degree like Lady Stoneheart, he might be extremely vengeful if he were to find out Mance tried to kill his little brother.
Wouldnt Bran's fall give Doran an opportunity to make his enemies fight each other? Ser Aron Santagar controlled the actual access to the dagger and he had the specific knowledge of the dagger. If all the Doran Hype is real he shouldve been involved with the conflict from the start, he at least had the means of communication, motive and a asset in place to make a move and like the other suspects all the results benifit him as well. Moreover the note wouldnt Mance in all his interactions with Jon say something about a potential mecry killing of his little half brother? Besides killing Starks would enrage the North and make them hate wildlings even more? it seems counter productive. I cant be sure but Varys and Little Finger seemed to improvise together on the dagger which leads me to suspect the other master schemer in the story.
Maarten Kros I
But.... have you considered a time travelling foetus?
But... Cell doesn't exist in the Westerosi timeline! Or does he? :O
@@nikhiliyengar1510 Dragon Ball is Westeros in the future CONFIRMED! A++ Deduction
"....and we're back"
CreepyPasta Al Dente best 3 words of the day
Great videos, as always. I enjoy your analyses on all of these subjects, thank you for that. However, this mystery has been solved. In the official World of Ice and Fire mobile app, it explicitly states that it was Joffrey. It reads, "After overhearing Robert's claim that men could end the suffering of a horse with a broken leg or a dog that has gone blind, but that they are too weak to end the suffering of a crippled child, Joffrey steals a Valyrian dagger from his father and hires a servant to kill Bran."
This became my favorite theory/analysis since the faceless man video. I accepted littlefinger did it some time ago, but you opened up my mind once again to the possibilities
Hope it's been closed by now. Preston's garnered quite a following, and for no good reason. Perhaps it's just a matter of being an early bird to catch the worm, but there are so many better ASOIAF theory channels out there who don't implicated Mance in everything that I just don't know why anyone would take Preston seriously anymore.
Wouldnt Mance want to kill Bran himself then? to make sure its done right? Mance hiring a dedicated cats paw that waits weeks to go after Bran?
Holypikemanz success is not necessary, Bran dead works just as well as Bran alive, if the end goal is merely conflict.
Holypikemanz how does mance get Roberts dagger though?
But the 2nd main reason Preston said Mance was because he would be "compassionate" to kill infected or injured kids. The other reason, being create chaos for Wildling benefit. Stealing Robert's dagger as a symbol of Mance's bravery is very Wildling doctrine.
The second point is more to show that Mance was capable of killing an innocent and disabled child to further his motives because he would see it as a mercy rather than a cold blooded murder. It is there to solidify Perston's first reason which many might dismiss claiming Mance is not so cruel to kill a innocent boy just to create conflict. This means he can sacrifice Bran to accomplish his goal but doesn't mean he would go out of his way to kill Bran.
Holypikemanz to me whether it works or not it still creates turmoil which is mances primary motivation.
I must say Preston, I love your theories. With that said, I actually feel like this is the theory that has, by far, the most likely probability of being true. Littlefinger being the culprit is an old thought of mine and Mance actually had quite a bit of compelling reasoning.
I love your theory vids so much that I keeping rewatching them all. Thank you for all the work you put into these ASOIAF theory vids!
Great video! I thought for sure you were going to say Littlefinger was the culprit, but now I think Mance is much more likely. I've always thought he was really suspicious! His reasons for getting south of the wall never made sense to me. I wonder if he wasn't given some kind of prophecy by a woods witch north of the wall and then tried to kill Bran because he is the most magical Stark child and certain to have an integral part in any magical conflict to happen during the coming winter.
Val, the wilding princess we need, not the one we deserve *cape flip*
Marion Bricaud him too
I've always believed Mance sent the catspaw based solely on the bag of silver. Joffrey is a blood royal and heir to the iron throne. He doesn't even carry money and if he did he wouldn't have silver.
Mance makes note of the direwolf, mhich means he tells the catspaw that Bran will be alone when he knows he won't. The direwolf predictably kills the catspaw, which means Bran wasn't meant to be killed. Like Discord and the apple "For the fairest," the point was to sow conflict.
You bring up a great point about the insane journey given the risks. And if I'm not mistaken the journey back is when he first meets Dalla, his supposed "true queen" who pretty much knows everything and will bear his child. Pretty successful mission all in all. Maybe the MOST SUCCESSFUL MISSION OF ALL TIME.
Given that Mance is currently in Winterfell again, I have to wonder if on his first journey to Winterfell he was meant to leave something and this time he is meant to retrieve it.
My theory is that Mance actually came to Winterfell to steal away Sansa for his queen, but it fails when she ends up going south with the King. Meanwhile, he learns about Bran and the Lannister feud, so he capitalizes on the opportunity.
Everytime I hear a new theory of yours I think that is ludicrous! But then slowly, listening to all the evidence, I begin to believe it... I guess I've now become a fully fledged song-of-ice-and-fire-conspiracy, nut :-P
Who else is loving the new presentation style. Good work Preston!
I love your content. I've read the books 5 times and listened to the audiobooks at least 60. I just started the wheel of time and cant get enough.
Perhaps Littlefinger sent an agent from the beginning, with the implicatory dagger, with the express purpose of assasinating either a Stark or someone close to the Starks. It just so happened that Bran became the ideal target. Littlefinger understands the opportunity the dagger gives him well before he even plots to kill Jon Arryn. Think of what he has before enacting that plot. He has Lysa and the dagger. Surely while brooding over his plans he thinks of placing the dagger in the hands of an assasin. So it doesn't seem unlikely that he would have the foresight to send the agent with the King's band north to further spark tension between the Starks and Lannisters. That also explains why the catspaw would have the dagger in the first place, paid in silver by the agent who presumably has the intelligience to target Bran however many days after the Lannisters leave.
The greatest enigma is how on Macomber did Mance Ryder got the Valyrian steel dagger?
He (PJ) clearly hasn't thought of that, and probably doesn't want you to think too hard on it either
@@danielallen4450 Or maybe he (MR) maxxed at throwing dice and obtained it by winning the dagger at that game :/
@@Kriegerdammerung Maybe. That’s a good shout
I think that the reveal of who sent a dagger to murder Bran was not when Joffrey was talking about valyrian steel but rather when Tyrion told that he would never have bet against his own kin, thus revealing Petyrs lie about the dagger. Thus i conclude it was littlefinger
New house words for Preston Jacobs: "Making mountains out of molehills since the 70s"
Production values coming along nicely. Great discussion, never would have thought of Mance. Another issue is Mance is playing with fire as Bran is now part of his Tree-god net so...
nice mance theory. well supported. looking forward to the Night's Watch videos. lots of good stuff to delve into there.
Mance doesn't just ride to *Winterfell*
He rides *past* Winterfell, a day's ride *south* of Winterfell. It's just one day, though it stills adds another 24 hours to Mance's travels, and he travels *south* no less.
Having said that, I *do* think Mance is the likeliest candidate for hiring the catspaw. Plus, he *tells* Jon this tale of riding to Winterfell to see the king *in* A Storm of Swords, the book GRRM said would reveal who was behind the catspaw once and for all (and he wouldn't lie to Jeff).
P.S. And Val means that hemlock is a secure way to *kill* a child with greyscale when she says it's a "sure cure", rather than *save* it, right? And *why* does her cartoon character look so butch? You could support individual antlers 12ft in length on that neck.
Yay, it's out! Still love this intro though. Not so much as the Purple Wedding one, but the new intros are really spectacular, Preston.
As for little finger- I thought the ravens are the purview of the masters so how would little fingers catspaw get the dagger & be instructed to use it to kill Bran. Also was he supposed to leave it there to be discovered because the catspaw kept saying that no one was supposed to be there?
The best way to make both theories true : Mance Rayder is Littlefinger's agent in Winterfell! ^^
Preston, have you ever done a video on who the hooded man who almost stabs theon in DwD might be? He only released his blade and spared him when he saw that theon was tortured and broken. It's a mystery I'd love to hear your insight on. If he was supposed to be there, he'd already know theon was in winterfell. If he wasn't, how'd he get in?
Loving your content, keep going with the crazy theories!
I believe it was LittleFinger. Everything fits so perfectly togethor yet with Mance it's still not certain how that certain dagger played in and if the catspaw succeeded or not, if that would of caused the war as a whole. Yea it did, but there were alot of other things that helped, like Jon Arryns death, Roberts Death, and that was by Littlefinger trying to start the war. It would make sense that the catspaw part was by Little Finger too.
Once again Preston, you amaze me with your deduction and reasoning. Normally I try not to believe theories, but "Killing Bran" is one of the few amazing, exceptions. Keep up the good work dude 👌
THANK YOU GOD FINALLY
I was about to lose it Preston I couldn't go another day.
Love your videos! :D
A thought, if it was Joffrey he may have given the highly valuable dagger as part of the payment, or even the entire payment, the silver could have been the assassin's life savings.
Maybe mance stole the knife and just picked out the hardest-to-miss knife he could find so that they knew for certain that the person who hired the catspaw was with Robert
Why does anyone think the Dagger was Littlefinger’s to begin with? Just as he lied that it went to Tyrion, he likely lied that it was his to begin with.
it'd be really funny if it were a red herring sandwich and Geroge sent the dagger personally.
Yeees. I have been looking forward to the Nights Watch series for a long time!
As Mance has bragged about climbing towers to infiltrate, I think it makes more sense that he stole the dagger and gave it to the catspaw rather the the catspaw stole it. Mance could have snuck into Roberts room and stole it
Doesn't it make more sense that Cersei tried to do it and tried to set up Tyrion since she hates him? Cersei is an idiot, so in her mind she would be killing Bran to cover up the affair, and setting up Tyrion as the culprit to try and get rid of him. Of course, since it's Cersei the plan falls through, but that seems to make the most sense to me.
I don't think Tyrion actually ever owned the blade
Spoiler alert for Dream of Spring: It actually was Tyrion who tried to kill Bran all along. Future-Bran used the Weirwood Net to influence past-Tyrion to give the dagger to the Catspaw. Bran attempted to fucking kill himself in the past after watching the Game of Thrones finale, supposing that if he weren't in the picture, Jon or Gendry or literally anybody else might end up as King for a more satisfying conclusion.
Very interesting. I'm really hyped for the Night's Watch videos!
living the new format i had a few questions preston:
when is the tyrell master plan coming you teased it in one your dorne videos
do you think lewin martell was complicit in the dornish masterplan since you claimed it was made before elia died
Thanks for the video, I'm new to your channel but your quickly becoming my favorite.
Mance could not have been beyond the Wall when he heard the news because he was there faster than Benjin!
There seems problems with all of these angles. I think the question becomes more interesting if you ask: why would someone want to burn the library down?
for me it has to be littlefinger . its more likely that mance came to winterfell to look for the horn of winter in the stark crypts
I often rewatch your videos, and the videos of others (though frankly yours are among the best), before re-reading the books.
I often think Mance is the most likely to have been the one who attacks Bran. I like your theory, and the only details I think you've missed a couple of things. But I think you brought it up in another video. That Mance using Robert's dagger might be an attempt to drive a wedge between Stark and Baratheon.
Also, I wonder if the library fire, regardless of who hired the catspaw, was an attempt to specifically destroy key knowledge. Afterall Tyron mentions explicitly that their library had a number of rare books and scrolls. It's luck that he took certain books with him to the wall. Maybe there were certain histories which explained how previous Kings of the North defeated their contemporary King beyond the wall.
As for the travel, I feel like this is Mance trying to mess with Jon. I believe, with little evidence other than connecting some off the cuff remarks and other dots throughout the series that if Mance did go to Winterfell it was as a passenger on a ship to White Harbour from Eastwatch by the sea. Haggen talks about trading with the men at Eastwatch and it is ruled by a Pyke, someone who seems more likely to bend the rules rather than be a stickler especially as they are clearly having issues haggling for trade goods. This might imply that they are interested in any money they can get their hands on, and potentially easily bribed. It's not like anyone north of the wall has use for money, which begs the question as to how Mance got the coin in the first place, for all we know he was a regular at East watch playing his lute for sailors, which might imply relationships and familiarity with the ships and their crew, which again might imply this as his route. It's a huge stretch but it makes way more sense to me that he didn't actually do the epic trek that he claimed. Why would he tell Jon this though? I think it's too see how gullible he is and also to see how well he knows the wall and the lands surrounding it. I'd wager that any veterans of the watch would call him a liar to his face. That his trek would be impossible. This is all a bit wild, but it's certainly possible, especially as it is Mance we're talking about here. Thoughts? I don't like reading too much into things, but I feel like this fits nicely based off of some subtle hints elsewhere in the series.
YES PJ AND AltshiftX both released GOT videos today. I gotta say, today was a good day
new theory: Preston Jacobs is Bill Bill O'Reilly. Bill tiles his books " Killing (name of character)" just like this video. Bill is no longer working, Preston is uploading more often. Coincidence? I think not.
It could have been something like this: after Bran is in a coma, Cersei and Jamie talk about maybe killing bran, either as an act of mercy so a child isn't in a coma for the rest of his life, or so that bran doesn't wake up and tell how he fell. While discussing this, an agent overhears them, sends a detailed letter about what's going on, littlefinger decides to improvise a plan to cause more chaos on top of the chaos from John Arryn's death and manages to make cersei hire a catspaw to kill bran, while making her think it was her idea. Mance Rayder notices the catspaw or sees the catspaw being hired and during a point where the festivities are dying down a bit, confronts the catspaw in a dark area and using his wilding charm, gets as much info about the reason and the event surrounding the catspaw's arrival as possible, and after he learned everything he could, including Bran in a coma, he hires (maybe partly as a merciful act) and gives silver on the spot to the catspaw, telling the catspaw what to do and what exactly to say ("it would be a mercy. He's dead already") and later providing the catspaw with Robert's dagger, stolen from his own tent. After, he was probably going to sneak out back over the wall to his army and wait as Ned gathered up his forces, along with Robert who would probably order the realm to gather up their forces as well to deal with Mance for both intruding on stark lands, killing bran and (for more selfish reasons) wanting him to pay for making Robert look like a fool by sneaking into his tent and stealing from Robert. once the Realm crossed the Wall, with the support of the Night's Watch , Mance would meet them with his army and organize a meeting with the generals and the lords and king etc. to tell them what was going on, hopefully creating and alliance that could hopefully come up with a plan to stop the Others. This plan didn't work though because of the chaos caused by misinterpretation of clues, missed details, Cersei trying to keep quiet on her part and Littlefinger being very good at improvising and lying. After, with the chaos of the war and the Others increasing the speed at which they gather their army, Mance became desperate and decided to hide as many of his people away from the Others as he could while he led the rest of his people, along with the giants, to force the Night's watch and the north at least to fight back and either lose and be forced to listen to the Wildlings about the Others or be forced to fight the Others after beating the Wildling attack
"Why would you provide the dagger"
What if the dagger was the payment? We're told by Robb that he was paid 90 silver stags due to what was found among his possessions, but how did they come to that conclusion? Did they just assume all the money sitting there was his fee, it's not impossible that some or all of it was money from the last job he did.
inoccence v arrogance and mercy v vicious are actually perfect parallels, helping us to understand joffs character better, as well as confirming that through any view point familiar enough with joffreys intentions, could conclude that he had done the deed. Joff fancied himself the former, and thought he understood the former as necessary evils rather than as his own flaws. He considered himself infallible in every respect for his supposed royalty. If going north served any poetic purpose for the boy, it was at least to provide evidence that those beliefs were unfounded. The errors inherent to the tale, i think, are the characters, not a fault in the diligence of our author.
Hey Preston just wanted to say I love you videos man
I don't think creating turmoil would've been what Mance was up to in Winterfell, in A Dance With Dragons we find out Mance has been spending his time in Winterfell searching through the crypts, my guess is he was there to look for the Horn of Winter, if he could find it and bring down the Wall, that would change everything
Not to mention that creating a feud between the King and the Warden of the North would be great for the wildling invention. If Mance was the one ordering the assassination, would it not make sense for him wanting the blade to be Roberts? He couldn't have known that Littlefinger would implicate the Lannisters to essentially create the war of the five kings. He could however have guessed that using the Kings dagger, would create a conflict between Ned and Robert, weakening the North. Sure, he might know that Ned and Robert are good friends, leading Ned to suspect the Lannisters instead, which would still create tension between the WotN and the King, forcing Robert to choose between his wife and friend.
What I am trying to say is: If Mance was trying to get Bran killed, it would make more sense to do so hoping the Warden of the North would get on bad terms with the King. More so than trying to start a war. Seeing as the war would be a long shot, that he couldn't have predicted. Weakening the North however, would be something to hope for in this situation. So he might have intentionally chosen the dagger because it was Roberts.
I’d like to propose Two Dagger Theory: the idea that Littlefinger’s valyrian steel, dragonbone hilt dagger was actually two different daggers the whole time. The first one is the one lost in a bet on Joffery’s name day, where Littlefinger can say he lost it in a bet to whoever within the King’s circle he feels like. Meanwhile he has the second dagger, of similar description, that he can use for whatever nefarious deeds he so desires. So losing the bet wasn’t so much a master plan for months in the future, but more planting a tool he could potentially use later (and he, in fact, did use later).
If this is how GRRM 'clears up' his mysteries, it makes me worry a little about the mysteries that have yet to be explained...
Dammid I had this entire comment already typed out, and then UA-cam decided to act up because I used the tap button.
Anyways:
You're wrong about little finger's agent.
1. The agent wouldn't be able to communicate with Little Finger. That could only be done with a raven trained to fly to Winterfell from Kingslanding, and it's Kingslanding counterpart. The raven from Winterfell is in possession of Measter Luwin, and would be missed. Especially with the concerns the Starks had regarding Kingslanding and the South.
The raven from Kingslanding might be possible. I don't think Maester Pycell would be competent enough to miss it (Maester Pycell is an incompetent oaf). But traveling all the way with a raven from Kingslanding to Winterfell would be difficult under normal circumstances. It'd be neigh impossible to do so while traveling with the Kings party.
2. Little finger would only arm the catspawn with the dagger if he wanted the dagger to be found by the starks. But that would require the catspawn to be caught with it during the act. The starks might be naive, but they wouldn't believe an assassin would leave a valarian dagger at the scene of the crime.
3. The catspawn is:
3a. Loyal waiting for a week after being paid to do the job.
3b. Competent though overzealous lighting the library on fire to create a distraction.
3c. Determined. Continuing the attempt with Catlyn in the room.
3d. Moral. Having to convince himself it's a mercy to kill the child.
3e. Disposable (see point 2)
Little finger might be able to get an agent that's some or even most of these things, but not all. He can't inspire loyalty from smart honourable people. And if he somehow could, that agent would be too valuable sacrifice just so he could later lie to Catlyn that the dagger belonged to Tyrion.
And there's something you're not seeing about Mance either.
You're right climbing the wall alone is dangerous, walking across the gift and new gift alone as a wildling is dangerous. Buying a horse on Ulmer lands alone is dangerous. Mance would be safer if he travelled with a loyal friend. We only have Mance word for it that he traveled alone, mance who wouldn't want to tell John that he traveld with the would be assassin of his brother.
Mance traveled to Winterfell not just to see all the faces he wanted to see (although I honestly think that might have played a role). But also to raid Winterfells libary and explore the catacombs. Keeping that in mind the catspawn suddendly makes more sense.
loyal. Mance is certainly capable of inspiring loyalty.
Competent and suddendly not overzealous. Burning the library no longer only creates a distraction, but also hides the fact that Mance raided it before. Stealing scroles that the Starks would miss, and aid him in his eventual conquest of the North.
Determined. The catspawn would be from the Free folk and understand that this move would destabilize the North and 7 Kingdoms. Making the future of the Free folk easier.
Moral. Killing a child like Brann would be the moral thing according to Free Folk, even though they might find it hard.
No longer disposable. The assassin wasn't meant to fail, and wasn't meant to be caught. The catspawn understood the value of Valerian steel, and stole it when it saw the chance. He was meant to escape with it.
Excellent points!
My issue with the Littlefinger agent theory is that, at that point in time, Littlefinger was still obsessed with Catelyn and one would assume that he would instruct the agent not to hurt her (or perhaps not to hurt any other Stark besides Bran if he was trying to avoid specificity). I can’t remember the scene verbatim but I seem to recall the catspaw coming at Catelyn with pretty murderous intent.
I like the idea of Mance but then there is the issue of killing the child of one’s host. If we take him at his word and he assumed that guest right would preclude him from being executed then one would assume that it would ‘cut both ways’. Unless the fact that he was no longer a guest at Winterfell when the assault happened avoids this? Or sending an agent was meant to absolve him of guilt because he didn’t actually commit the deed? But then Walder Frey never killed any wedding guests himself but he is rightfully condemned as having defiled guest right.
I have no idea. But great video as always!
Elementary, my dear Watson. Great analysis(1&2)
The argument about providing a dagger can be easily resolved. The dagger was given to kill Bran because it was as payment, the dagger would be very rare and expensive.
Do you think the fact that the word "bran" actually means "crow" or "raven" (I'm not sure which) in one or possibly more of celtic languages is an allusion or just a coincidence?
@@Richard_Nickerson Especially every member of House Shett.
I know I'm late too this but I've just reread the Cat chapter where Littlefinger says Tyrion won the dagger from him. What's going on with Varys at the end of the chapter? It says he's looking at Catelyn's face as Lf tells her about the daggers "owner. " 1) Why doesn't he out Lf as a liar? 2) If this info is new to him why is his attention on Cat not the person speaking?
I remember Preston said something about that in a littlefinger video. The reason Varys said nothing is because telling the truth that it was Robert's dagger would escalate things in king's landing potentially starting a war. Littlefinger pins it on Tyrion who is conveniently not in king's landing and an easy scapegoat. Varys doesn't want screw up the realm just yet because Aegon and the golden company are not ready to invade.
You havent thought the dagger being a part of payment since its valuable...
Maybe, but if it was intended to be that it would be weird for him to actually use it for the kill, or for the culprit to instruct him to use it. Unnecessarily conspicuous and a real waste if it gets lost somehow.
Also, it's honestly way too valuable for that dirt job. And then giving it to the catspaw beforehand.. he would totally run off with something that rare.
It's a good thought tho, and there are probably points speaking for that idea, points I can't see right now because I'm personally arguing against it and also sleep deprived.
@@glanni Remember: some people are dumb, and carrying a hidden weapon inside a known place of commerce etc. was forbidden back then. So no, he might not even have his sword/dagger with him inside Winterfell. 🤔
you might be wrong about Mance, but your ability to think out of box is beyond measures!! take a bow!
Great video Preston. Just one note:
I don't think Mance's trip to Winterfell was just made on a whim. Most probably, I think it was a covert intelligence gathering mission. If you are planning on a large scale invasion and you expect the Starks fighting you once you cross the Wall, you might want to catch a glimpse of the roads and defenses - as well as the men you are going up against themselves.
The box with the lens arrived BEFORE Bran's fall. IIRC, it was the night of the welcoming feast. The letter was the final piece to get Ned to head south. I do agree that this was likely a Littlefinger plant. Remember, Kat did not leave Bran's bedside even to wish Ned farewell, so the whole scene with Lewin, Ned, and Kat had to be prior to the fall.
I do like the idea that Mance may have been behind it though. As for the dagger, just because Littlefinger claimed it was his does NOT make it his -- it could have been the catspaws all along. Claiming it was his would allow Littlefinger to sow even more distrust and discord into the mix. He would never turn down such an opportunity.
Now, should we determine the degree to which Littlefinger and the Mance may have been in communication or cahoots. After all, neither of them have the stability or security of T7KoW at heart. And both are resourceful traders in goods, information and intrigue.
I feel as if I’m being schooled by Sherlock Holmes himself.
I would like to see you make a Q&A video for all the murder mysteries :)
The Interesting Nerd Club just released a video about the cat's paw, also suggesting that Mance was behind it. I like this theory!
Excellent video, and one that sounds pretty logical.
This is absolutely wrong lol but I really like the Mance spin. You do a great job with connecting random dots. Keep it up
An argument against Littlefinger sending the catspaw is that it was supposed to be mercy. Nothing about Petyr suggests he would do this for mercy, and that aspect is fairly important in this whole debacle. We even have a direct comparison - Robert explicitly refers to killing a dog when he goes blind, and Baelish keeps an old, blind dog alive at the Fingers.
Some moe evidence for mance, grrm said the mystery would be relieved in asos the same book where we learn mance went south of the wall
The same book we learn that Littlefinger was manipulating things at Winterfell early on.
So in the end, GRRM said he would give us the solution and then proceeds to give us 3 different solutions.
Cheeky bastard he is!
well you have to remember he said to Catlyn she wasn't supposed to be there. so if he got away with it it wouldn't have mattered what knife killed the boy. because he wouldnt leave the blade behind.
May I offer a reason Joffrey might have supplied the dagger? A fancy dagger, that was worth keeping? The point, for a vicious and cruel prince, was to keep the dagger as a trophy. The dagger that killed Brandon Stark, the crippled prince of Winterfell. After all, the catspaw was not supposed to be discovered, and the idea of the catspaw being caught, and the dagger traced back, wasn't even considered. Could have happened. I don't say it did, I say it could have.
Maybe a faceless man dropped the box office in luwins chambers he says his servants saw NO ONE leave the box behind
A video from Preston AND altshiftx at the same time? Today was a good day.
To be honest, the Little Finger plan doesn't need active communication, only 2 spies:
One spy waits on Winterfell (or the surrounding area) and the other is part of Robert's tail.
The spy from the tail brings the looking glass and the message to the master, while giving the spy in Winterfell the dagger and the order "if you have the opportunity to kill one of the Stark sons, do it and leave the dagger".
Awww was hoping you'd go Full Preston 😉 I've thought it was Mande for a while but have always been stumped by how exactly he got his hands on the dagger. It's the fly in the ointment for any theory I think ... Are you sure you're done with murder mysteries? What about Doreah? She might not have been murdered, but she has a weird death. Regardless, great video and looking forward to the night's watch series! 😊
I like the "I'm probably wrong about half of this" at the end. I feel like that every time I mention a theory.
Mance Rayder makes the most sense.
IMO Mance is the most interesting side character, as he seems to embody everything that is wanted in a king. Plus he's 10 times more educated, intelligent, and cultured than any wildling we see. Mance is more like a westerosi nobleman than a half wildling half knights watchman.