Why did Southampton's data gamble fail?
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- Опубліковано 11 жов 2024
- Southampton were the first team relegated from the Premier League this season and their recruitment has been heavily criticised. So how much has their data-driven strategy been exposed and how hard is it to sustain that level in the top flight? Matt Slater and The Athletic's Southampton experts Jacob Tanswell and Dan Sheldon joined Mark Chapman on Wednesday...
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#southampton #premierleague #relegation
Which Southampton players should get Premier League moves after their relegation? 👇
Roméo Lavia. The boy is a baller 💯💯
JWP obviously
Lavia , KWP , Kotchap and Salisu for sure
Kotchap? Catsup?
@@francolive5718 what
Mark in his Klopp era
Matt in his Shearer Era...
More David Badiel 😂
Remember when Southampton were like 4 wins from UCL? Football changes in a flash, that flash was even quicker for a club like Leicester
With all respect, the same for Chelsea...
4 wins.... So 12pts off. That's midtable lol
It was one win away under koeman missed it by 3pts to Man U the year Leicester won it.
They were 4 points off UCL, not 4 wins
@@jamesmichaels4979 reading comprehension is hard sometimes
Slightly different take: the worst clubs in the Premier League have gotten much much better - this side feels like it woild have easily stayed up 4 years ago
This isn't true, if this were the case the league would be becoming more equal. This would mean the number of points needed to win the league would decrease and the number of points needed to survive relegation would increase. The opposite is happening. The top of the league are pulling away and it's becoming a two tier system. You need more points than ever to win the league and fewer points than ever to stay up. You might well be able to stay up with 32 points this year. 20 years ago West Ham were relagated with 42
@@EpicSlug Two things can be true, and I believe they are. We have City/Pool with juggernauts. But then you have United/Tottenham et al. points totals falling off because the bottom of the league is now richer than Serie A. The veru cream can still beat the bottom but the results below that are equalizing.
@@EpicSlug ManCity was so so good, even at Europe level so it's more like Manchester City vs the rest. A feat similar to Liverpool last year was incredible. There should be a massive fortune + well run club to match ManCity. I can only expect Qatar & Ten Hag's ManUtd
@@EpicSlug No, a league can get universally better in comparison to other leagues and the same league's relative position in the past. What OP is implying is that Southampton 22/23 is a more talented squad in terms of world football than the lower table teams pre pandemic. And I would agree.
The premier league is the super league.
Pretty simple, They didn't understand which manager will suit the profile of players at their club to lead them.
Ah yes, Having the extremely talented Romeo Lavia/Ward-Prowse partnership in midfield but going for hoofball tactics despite having a short striker
@@Zahrul3 what can they do tbh? they lack presence in midfield when attacking, they cant rely on their to act as a target man because of his height, and jwp does not have the pace to bring the ball to the final third. lavia is primarily the bwm and even with a creative outlet (jwp) you cant really do much when your team just really cant win aerial duels in the final third
@@Zahrul3 maybe this would work much more effectively if they had a player like the partnership of toney and mbuemo
Brentford took a gamble on Toney who did a bit of gambling himself apparently.
they really gambled their bettings on the gambler himself
It was actually a big gamble on a BIG gambler.
I'd call that a win win.
Southampton haven't been the same since Nicola Cortese left the club, atleast that's my view as an outsider. Once he left, I believe that I saw they stopped giving chances to their academy players. With academy players, you need to give a run of games to the player and live and die with the results.
Ahhh, that explains that then. When I was growing up, a lot of kids in Bristol seemed to be on the books for Saints and I couldn't work out why (Norwich as well for some reason). I now live in Devon and they have 'Soccer Saints' Youth development centres.
I believe they had (possibly still do) an academy in Perth, Western Australia decades ago.
Lack of experience in the squad hurt them
One piece of data that is irrefutable is that whatever they do and however good their data analysis and decision making is, three teams will get relegated from the Premier League next year and the year after...
Since every EPL club uses data, there will still be 3 "data-driven" clubs who end up getting relegated. Thus, the separators become: what leadership structures are in place, who is interpreting the data more efficiently, how is the data being applied, and what data points matter more than others.
Data driven football clubs are like data driven businesses. Yes you need structure, but you also need to understand the skill in patience. Too often in business, an external factor forces decisions being made that overly bias the upside of data or overly negate the downside. Brentford & Brighton both appear to be clubs who understand that the data model will mean a path of steady rise. Yes both have over achieved this year, but in the context of a decade long strategy their growth is more incremental.
Coming in and spending big, for now results, doesn't reflect a data based strategy. Southampton once had an academy that was the envy of much of England. If they were to return to these ways, they could easily implement a data based model to rise to being a very strong club. But you need to have ownership and management who understand next year and 3 years from now, is as important as right now.
In business or sport, if you get stuck in a right now mentality, eventually you are over taken. Look at Chelsea, a huge amount of money spent for the right now, which will likely cause much pain in the future. Barcelona may have just won La Liga but they are a club who have made a decade of right now decisions, and their tipping moment is ever increasing.
The human element is most important and often lost.
Character counts for a lot, data could never quantify that.
They don't look for sprints / tackles made/attempted and hang their hats on xG and bet their house on it.
Even in basketball the Dallas Mavericks who hired a betting guy to lead their data department gave away their heart (Brunson who led a team of bums in New York to the Play offs) for nothing.
And a team like the Miami Heat made the conference finals purely cus they have more dawgs.
@@shadow_realm47 maybe not so much in the US but fascinating how the teams that always finish near the top in the European leagues have the biggest wage bill, have the most financial resources etc, does money buy character? Or people with character?
Data and how you interpret it is just a model. Some models are useful, but all models are wrong. The danger is when you have a data and a model that has been useful in the past you start to trust it too much and ignore what your eyes and ears tell you. It’s like the 737 max relying on data from a faulty air speed indicator and crashing into the ground, ignoring all the efforts from the pilots who are desperately trying to pull the plane up
As a masters student in data analysis, I offer the following observations; we need large, robust datasets of accurate, specific information to start with, we need to realise that we are dealing with probabilities not certainties and most importantly we need to ask the right questions in order to test our hypotheses. Then we can check out our outcomes. Southampton needed to simplify their decision making processes to ensure their premiership survival. Their model for staying in the division was clearly flawed.
If Southampton get the right manager in quickly, a season in the Championship could be great for their young players, thought the will lose the best ones.
You still have to be better than 3 other teams to stay in the league. I think some teams are fooled into believing that the data driven approach will see them on a steady upwards trajectory, especially if they enjoy initial success like Southampton did. Sometimes you require that innovation just to stay still though. I believe some years ago that Southampton thought they had established a solid footing in the league and planned to scale it further. They skewed too far away from a profile of players able to battle relegation and instead bought players with more of a developmental focus.
The reduction of knowledge to mere information is a serious problem of the modern world. So strange seeing this conceptual error find its way into football as well
Stats have their place. They take the objective measure of a player's performance. Touches by position, touches versus opponents, # of passes, passing completed, ground covered, tackles won/lost,, among many many others. But players have to do well in three tests: the eye test, the fitness/athleticism test, and the character test. In top leagues, fitness is critical, and your fitness can be scientifically measured and scientifically improved. Athleticism too can be measured and analyzed. And players in training should work on their weaknesses to improve. And character? Well, you have to do your due diligence there. The eye test is all about technique and decision making, and putting a stamp on the game.
Bottom line, teams with better players by those dimensions tend to beat teams with weaker players on those dimensions. The only thing that can't be truly measured is character--discipline, determination, fearlessness. Intellgence, however, CAN be measured.
Finally, you build a team from the back. Unless you can get great possession mids, you MUST have a solid defense. A quality goalkeeper will by himself win you 2 games a season, or more. A great back line will keep you in games against better teams. This has been Leeds problem this entire year. Their defense is not very good and they really did nothing in the transfer windows to really shore it up.
Because it was not really a “data era”. Since these new investors did not bring extra investment in the club, they had to come up with an angle to appease the supporters. “We don’t bring any funds, bur we bring knowledge and expertise”. Yeah right.
Well Southampton have splashed the cash under these news owners lol what are you waffling about.
We are all one family at Brentford . Up or down we stick together…..❤️🩹 🐝
Southampton are like any of the bottom 6 EPL sides. They needed a centre forward that would score 12 goals a season.
Nothing wrong with their signings persay, they just didnt buy a striker who could score 10 or 12 league goals.
In fact, they have never replaced Danny Ings
They lack experience you cant survive with 18-20 year old players who has never played prem football and a bunch of dead wood like Adam Armstrong and Theo Walcott who are not premier league quality anymore.
There are folk whom supported Cherries since the days of Ted MacDougall from villages or towns within the woods & hills between Bournemouth & Southampton whom have suffered ignominy from sfc supporters since the days of Bobby Stokes . WE aren’t complaining 😁❤️
The data model doesn't work across leagues and should only be used for arbitraging the output of a player vs the contract cost.
The idea is that data-driven thinking allows you to punch above your weight. You can still punch above your weight and be bad enough to be relegated.
Southampton were the trendy team, then it was Leicester, now its Brighton. Soon to be Brentford and after them..... probably Luton. Everything is cyclical.
Sunderland.
@@MichaelGGarry it will be Burnley, behave
@@jamesturner2914 Are Burnley successful for using a data-driven buy them young tactic? Or just spending their parachute money wisely? Because Sunderland are certainly the former.
@@MichaelGGarry Firstly, Burnley used their parachute payments to pay off club debts. Secondly, they had 60+ mill in player sales.
But look at who they have bought. Zaroury, Benson, Ekdal, Al Dhakil, Bastien, Foster, Muric. All cheap players, all worth lots more money than initially invested.
Burnley also own the IP for a new AI based scouting system, which bayern munich have just bought into. So they’re getting properly into the data.
Sunderland had their chance to use their “parachute payments” and didn’t. Also, look at Norwich and Watford- it doesn’t matter about getting paid you still have to play.
Selling Van Dijk, Mane, Lovren, Lallana, Chambers, Clyde, Shaw, Wanyama, Fonte, and Hojbjerg didn’t help.
All those players have something in common.
They all had character and weren't afraid to get stuck in, in addition to being solid with the ball at their feet.
And look at the money they made from those sales.
@@shadow_realm47 Southampton aren’t going to come straight back up so, hopefully, they made enough off those players to sustain them in the Championship for several years.
Wayne bridge
If football had wage and spending caps like basketball or NFL they would've kept them and probably won something along the way.
@@triplebeans4159 if NFL or basketball had pro/rel the leagues would be better
Never heard anyone who loves the sound of their own voice as much as Matt slater
Changing managers all the time is madness.
Chelsea also took the gamble by primarily using statistical datas for recruitment purposes and almost all of the signings that they’ve made especially in the Winter window haven’t turned out well for them. I’ve never seen an ownership that manages to destroy the legacy of the club that quickly than Todd Boehly and Eghbali did. This is coming from a Chelsea fan btw.
It hasn't worked yet. Let's see what Poch will do.
Boehly binged on Ted Lasso three seasons straight TWICE and by the end of it, he thought that he's an expert in football.
Data worked great at Southampton. But when you sell EVERY good player you find, eventually you are going down. Brentford will go down too in 1-5 years because they will also lose EVERY excellent player to teams that can pay more.
Personally thing there is only so many times you can sell your best players and then replace them with quality. There luck has run out!!
they haven't found a way to quantify heart.
They literally have. That is the whole premise of Moneyball.
You need a balanced team. Young and experienced players. An average age of 26 to 27. Both Leeds and Southampton have an average age of 25. Their teams are too young.
two words why we failed Rasmus Ankersen, he thinks he is a genius but he isn't
This was a long time coming for the Saints, they built a good side in the mid 2010s even when they lost players, the scouting was still good.
Lies, damn lies and statistics
Football isn't played on spreadsheets.
Imagine being this stupid and still go full Dunning Kruger
Or On Documents
tell that to brentford and brighton
Sure it is. League winners use them creatively all the time.
@@mrwabbit9576 they will go the Southampton way too.
It's simple. Football is about more than data. This is real life, not Football Manager. Football is more simple than people make it these days, with the whole xG and xA nonsense, and buying whole squads of players based on potential rather than players current levels
A relagation team can't afford to play money ball.
And Football is less data driven than baseball.
You can't buy and sell character it ain't cheap.
You need those dawgs to get results on those rainy Wednesday games.
Steal draws from soft clubs top 4 like Arsenal or Tottenham.
And brutalize relagation rivals in the theoretical 6 pointers.
And for a data driven team Soton have terrible xG.
This is real life. Hence why small clubs MUST seek bargains in the hope of profit.
context driven decisions use data analysis but purely data driven decisions can lead to blindsiding aspects such as form , threats from other teams and potential permutations of the other fixtures that are out of the locus of control for data means that it can be beneficial but depends on the interpretation . AI is going to revolutinse both gambling side of things and these kind of cuththroat applications of the AI applications in these industries. People will lose bets because the house has a better idea of their chances.
The real issue is the need for clubs to resort to talent gambling in the richest league in the world. It is a practice born of inequalities in the League.
It is forced as the league is inherently an unfair and biased competition.
Financial FairPlay is a farce with Premier League, FA and God Himself unable to drag owners who are now using the resources of countries through courts.
Meanwhile VAR/PGMOL have been infiltrated by a few individuals. It’s like a tidy locker room club, bantering about clubs and individuals on a subtle level.
These clubs can only make educated gambles, but are forced to repeat it as there is no protection to be able to retain their players they have gambled their futures on.
It’s like being at a one arm bandit that statistically takes everything back over time.
The list is endless and will continue Southampton is only the latest where time has run out and the croupier sweeps the chips off the table.
Stats do not win football matches.
The same will happen with Brighton. People keep arguing with me about it but they sell all the sir best players then buy complete unknowns and they will come unstuck with it in the next 5 or 6 years
Same will happen to 3 teams every year. Most teams in the league are only borrowing their status. Data first or not.
Football players aren't machines.
If a young player is performing really well, and ranking highly in performance metrics on five grand a week - and he gets a new contract for a hundred grand a week - do you think they will have the same drive to perform.
Some will, most won't. Hunger and will to win is not something that can be captured in data.
Last time they won trophy was my uncle Bobby Stokes goal in 1976
2010. Football League Trophy. But thank your uncle for beating Man Utd, David!
Their squad has been terrible for some time. The Chinese owners were terrible and ran the club down. They needed more than a couple of transfer windows of kids. They needed serious investment.
They needed to get veterans with big balls in cm cdm and cb.
You don't get chances if there's no one on the other end to get stuck in.
They press too much, get caught out and for a "data driven" team they have the worst xG in the league.
So they clearly lied about that.
And so many errors at the back, Jesus.
The EPL & EFL should ban all gambling companies sponsorships and shirt naming rights. Gambling is a seriously corrosive social issue that has terrible consequences.
Look how many of the senior people Southampton have lost this season . That’s one of the many reasons for the relegation
I didn’t realise that Data from Star Trek NG played for Southampton
Absolutely embarrassing season for us. Nathan Jones has been our worst ever manager. From European Football to Championship relegation in just eight seasons. We need to come back to the top flight quickly.
Probably because data doesnt factor in league quality and team quality and etc. Big club dont sign unproven talent like that so they dont have to worry. City didnt sign unproven players they signed prodigies who were ahead of their peers by a landslide.
If SFCs ‘ gravity was forced to extend 50 miles west to Bath City , & there wasn’t there any decent talent in the SW in Dorset or Devon , couldn’t they post a scout 60 miles South across the sea to France ?
If you sell your best players you will get relegated ask Leicester
Yup the value of old school solid players like Shmichael is under reported on statsheets.
@@shadow_realm47 Leicester is the opposite they kept Vardy Madison Barnes tielmans on big wages trying to be a big club there wage bill gotta out of hand and they didn't have the cash flow to freshen up the squad
I call it Karma.
Ralph Hassenhuttl was/is a good manager.
Southampton in their infinite wisdom decided to ditch him, but then for some inexplicable reason appointed a guy who has never really managed at Premier League level before and who in my own rather humble opinion isn't really EPL calibre and has yet to prove himself as such in Mr Nathan Jones.
Later on they decided to also ditch Jones but by which time the damage had already been done.
Welcome to the EFL Championship.
Meanwhile RH could still end up managing an EPL club next season.
That sexy Moneyball method needs nuance in order to work. Otherwise, it's just an overrated tool.
Great take!
On base percentage was extremely easy to identify. Easier again to sign when nobody else realises it.
With everyone using stats so heavily its harder to find undervalued stats.
They probably found great value players, but only 2 were good signings for the team.
Where if they overspent on 8 players that were good for the team they'd be a premier league club next year.
Statistics are easy to use but hard to understand.
xG also can't force young players to perform better. And you can't play mediocre players out of position for a better result in football.
Soton have terrible xG for a "data driven" team.
The team sorely lacks character and culture. And they can't make a simple pass without giving away the ball.
Cutbacks counter Catenaccio is the only way a weaker team can beat a stronger team.
Other than that keep the players fresh for the theoretical 6 pointers and park the bus against the top 5 hoping to steal a draw against soft teams top 5 like Spurs or Arsenal.
And in the premiership you can't just park the bus like in Italy Portugal or Netherlands and hope for a draw you need atleast one pace merchant on the team to hit back and keep the opposition honest.
What the Moneyball movie fails to mention is that the As had an All Star shortstop in Tejada and the 3 amazing starters in Mulder, Hudson, Zito.
@@IVIRnathanreilly Exactly 💯
I come to this channel for insight and knowledge; why is mark chapman here?
Ward-Prowse to Spurs must happen
he'd probably like to win trophies though or at least try his hand at European football
Rasmus Ankersen Sport Republic failed - they did not have proven PL experience on pitch or in dugout. Were better under Rupert Lowe and Ralph Hassenhuttl ..
It is not the data that failed them
That abysmal goalkeeper hasn’t helped them. Some big names in the Championship next season, it’ll be tough to get out of it.
football is played on grass wins again
Forget stats, just go for whoever Brighton wants. They will probably turn into a star player😂
if Southampton want to be winning the league they will need a bigger ground a billionaire owner and will never sell shirts like Man u or Liverpool for decades of success
Maybe a 2 year no EPL buyout clause (in all epl contracts), in the prem to stop big teams taking smaller teams best players.
Why would players sign that? If you introduce it as a regulation, it'll cripple the non-top6 teams' ability to sign.
So vague it wouldn't work. How would a "big" team be defined in a legal sense?
Terrible idea. You can't favour the weaker teams.
Kills trying to win on merit.
Weak teams with a few strong players are good for the league.
The Southampton players are not great at all. I actually think they'll struggle in the Championship next season too
Athletic has been cited as the source of Griezmann-Ronaldo swap in 2022. Obvious hoax and untrusted souce
Mark is right. The thing about the biggest clubs is that they can correct their mistakes.
Chelsea can buy Lukaku and win even when he doesn't work. City have spent insane money on defenders that didn't really work and still won.
Arsenal buy Pepe and it kills them for 5 years. Spurs waste the Bale money and it takes years to recover. That's a huge difference
Yup the club's that are 5-20 have to sell of their most decent player and hope that "the data" works on their next big gamble.
Nope city are just well run unlike Spurs and Arsenal City actually know how to offload dead wood unlike Arsenal and Spurs.
@@emilfrederiksen.1622 Preach that, so glad we lost Sterling and Jesus in the end. Sterling was always tinpot, and I loved Jesus but he was more of a winger when we needed a big lanky nine. Grealish > Sterling any day, finally proving the price tag
Nice to see Mark Chapman has turned his life around after killing John Lennon
Nathan Jones was the best bullshitter in Europe
2024: Saints Relagted To League One
They have been there before and survived.
Ward-Prowse,
Write da teme toon
Sing da teme toon.
People of a certain age will get it.
12 year old kids have the data