What Does "A 50% Chance of Rain" Actually Mean?
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- Опубліковано 28 лип 2017
- Your friendly local weather person says there's a 10% chance it will rain today, so you throw on your flip-flops and head out to enjoy a beautiful day. Next thing you know, you're running through puddles, trying to get out of a torrential downpour. Bad luck or bad weather person?
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Sources:
www.weather.gov/ffc/pop
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It means it's gonna rain if you have something important to do. And stay sunny if you don't have to do anything
[Yoshikage_Kira] quite the opposite I'd say. It means it'll stay sunny when you are working and rain when you have the day off!
Nani?!
Or it'll rain when you have no umbrella but not rain when you remember to bring it.
Solis yare
Solis anata ga watashi no shubui desu ka?
I still don't understand meteorologists on the TV. I've never heard them actually talk about meteors.
Master Therion Badum-PISH!
Master Therion meteorology is the study of the sky, basically...
Haha, funny joke!
GamingW/O Friends There's always one :D Just a little word play!
"Meteor" is baSICALLY "anything that falls from the sky", not just fancy spacerocks.
I enjoy seeing a 100% chance of rain, only to find out that it doesn't end up raining...
I enjoy seeing a 0% chance of rain, only to find out that it ends up raining...
oh man i miss seeing the storms stride down a valley on legs of lightning! & being 30 miles out from a town in the desert,,i miss the stars.dont miss the heat or allergies though lol
3C Kitani by definition, the meteorologist could have 0% confidence in their answer. they aren't lying.
I think there's also an incentive to overestimate rain because weather forecasters get more negative feedback when the weather is worse than they predicted.
BumblebeeCannon i hate that too
You should tell this to the cows. Apparently, whenever it's supposed to rain, they will all group up together and lie down in the field. Supposedly they do it to keep each _udder_ dry, but who knows.
60 Second Success nice.
Hahaha. Each udder! :-)
60 Second Success they do it to reserve heat
60 Second Success you are telling me they getting wet
60 Second Success this is funny and smart at the same time 😎😂😂😎
I always figured that a 50% chance of rain meant that there was just as good a chance of rain as there is no rain and so it's basically just like saying "we have no idea if it's going to rain or not"
Man i allways feel like such a smart ass when i tell my friends about stuff i learned from this channel.
Same! But I rather be a smart ass than a dumb ass
Don't, it'll make you such a bore at parties. I suggest you become a normal person, and take up squash. I don't know what that is either, but it's a conversational topic.
me too except i dont have friends
You lucky fuckers get all the breaks. When I was young I had to go down to the library and read encyclopedias all day long to find out the same things that you kids find out in 10 minutes at home, scratching yourself in your underwear. Now get off my lawn!!
+Zom Bee Nature
17? God, I wish I was anywhere near 17. I've got a kid that's nearly 17.
THE Meteorologist IN MY AREA IS NOT THAT CONFINDENT HE'S ALWAYS CHANGING HIS MIND
lol @ that copy/paste
ITS MY BEST FRIEND ;)
Because weather is ALWAYS changing.
50% chance of rain ? how do i get this ability? is it a passive ability?
Tell Me This 😂😂
your enchanting must not be a high enough level yet
The ability slows down the movement speed of any opponent in the affected area. It's actually pretty useful
Yes, it's a passive, but to get it you need to first go to the Cloud Palace of Zeus and defeat him to obtain the Pendent of Rain then you need to travel all the way down to the ocean and toss it in, making the ocean split in half, after walking for 3.14159265459 miles you have to perform a traditional African rain dance. After that a door should appear and after you go inside you'll have to face Jeff Kaplan in a 1v1 duel, which you'll probably lose, since Jeff has a 99.9999999% of winning, and after he kills you your game is completely reset, but if you do beat him, he'll teach you the ability. Of course though, he'll only teach you it if you have a Trophy from a gaming competition in South Korea along with the tears of a unicorn, blood of a dragon, and star dust from the center of the universe, oh, and an enchanting skill of 50.
How often can it proc?
The "short straw" comment betrays an anti-rain bias. Some of us like rain.
Not if you're working out in the open. While it's raining.
Nah even then. Sometimes _especially_ then.
brian554xx Your comment betrays an anti short straw bias. Some of us like short straws.
LegolasGuk 👏 ❤👍
1:38 not to mention that meteorologists/broadcasters are highly confident they have the right answer
Always wondered this, thanks for the video!
So this is slightly different than I had it explained to me once by a local meteorologist.
They told me the way it was calculated (estimated, really) was more like this:
X% chance of rain was based on the number of times it rained in circumstances nearly identical to the current ones, whatever they may be.
For instance, if they say it’s a 60% chance of rain, it means that in the past when the weather was recorded, when circumstances (temperature, humidity, fronts, etc.) were similar to the current ones, it rained 60% of the time, so there is a 60% chance that it might rain now, as these circumstances are similar to those past ones.
Not sure if this is even right, but it makes sense to me.
That's how it *should* be done but due to lack of monitoring through the years there's still big holes in the empirical data to base such predictions on.
So instead they just decided to take a couple of kinda relevant numbers, do some arbitrary mathematics on them to come up with a number that means nothing.
Perfect! Great job. Meteorologist here.
Thanks for explaining, I've always wondered about that
THANK U! U EXPLAINED THIS PERFECTLY!
yay your back Michael!
I always assumed it meant approximations in land mass area, so 50% meant about half the region the meteorologist covers was expected to receive rain. Seems I was not too far off, though I had no idea that confidence level was a factor in the calculation. Interesting to know!
I’m pretty sure you’re right. I was always under the assumption 50% chance of rain meant 50% of that area will be raining.
Oh goody, one of the variables in the equation is completely subjective... And this is why I trust my window as my weather forecast.
thank you!
One time I checked the weather forecast. It said 0% chance of rain at that time. Meanwhile, it was raining out.
A week ago it happened again! On a related note, I should find a better forcast service.
This raises more questions than answers.
Hi Hank and the rest of scishow!!!
"The short straw" I live in the Valley. We get ecstatic when it actually rains. We see rain in the forecast and go, "Yeah, right."
I remember Pittsburgh local news station's favorite go-to was 30%. 30% chance of rain all week long. Which taken as an aggregate, was almost always guaranteed to be right, since it basically rains twice a week in Pittsburgh. Which is 30% of 7 days.
I live rain so much when it’s raining I love to hear the sound and watch the clouds how beautiful they are ❤😂
This is fitting, given the fact that my house just flooded a bit yesterday after two back to back flash floods
have wanted to know this for sooo long
wut..?
Ur mum
This is why I use the long radar to watch the weather. Once you have learned how to read what you are looking at. You are able to plan outside events better, but you have to stay daily updated on the radar, as it can change day to day.
It might rain or it might not. Depending on where you are. At a certain time of day. Sounds pretty useful to me.
"What Does "A 50% Chance of Rain" Actually Mean?"
Well it's a determination made by the Bullshitometer...
I've read multiple articles that say that PoP does not give you the chance of being rained on in your area, when that is literally exactly what it means.
Clear to Partly Cloudy with a Slight Chance of Rain.
More weather stuff!
GOD THANK YOU FOR THIS
Exactly. In our area they always teach that, PoP means what percent of the area will get precipitation, not the chance it will rain. And they are often wrong, this year.
You learn new things every day. Today I learned that I will never understand meteorologists. I was not sure before, but now it's a fact.
I thought that the answer was going to be obvious, but I didn't realize that land area was taken into account. The equation makes a lot of sense!
“I’m 50% sure that there’s a 50% chance of raining tomorrow” bru what?? 😭
"10% chance of rain" - you SHOULD expect to experience rain one in every ten times you see this!
You really had some tongue twisters in this one!
Its the man who does not blink!
It just means that it will Definitely Rain if you have forgotten to bring your umbrella but won't rain if you have it.
The weather in 100 years can be forecast with absolute certainty but not even close this afternoon's weather. Thus preach the Al Gorites.
Wow, more complicated than I thought... I just thought it was the chance of rain happening at some point during the day of the forecast.
It means there's a 50% it won't rain
It means a 50% chance that it *will* rain
;)
but it means theres a 50% chance it wont
That explains why the weather report is usually not right for where we are.
There's a 50% chance it's already raining
What is the threshold used to determine which symbol to use for a given day when generating an extended forecast graphic?
For example, a "rain" graphic may appear on a forecast for a day later in the week, but it would be unlikely said day would bring nonstop or even a 12+ hour majority of rain during the 24 hour period.
So I may want to have access to forecasts for many small local areas and for each hour of the day. And then lookup those forecasts that would apply to where I plan to be that day.
and this is why it's better to trust the doppler radar
I watch my weather rock and listen for the rain-stick. :o)
Ryukachoo which isn’t a forecast...
Makes sense.
It's still has yet to forecast falling space rocks
Always thought it mean't the local weather person didn't have a clue if was going to rain or not.
Basically the prediction is always right no matter how wrong it is.
The only job you can always be wrong about and never get fired.
I'm 100% confident that Aranda's new hair is looking fine
It's always at 10% in GA
in south texas rain is drawing the long straw
His voice was interrupting the conversation his hands were having.
If the video game XCOM has taught me anything, it's to never assume percentage probability is in any way accurate.
Cloudy with a Chance of Meteorologists.
I went to Florida once, and there is a 60% chance that it was going to rain. We didn't go to the waterpark that day. The next day it was a 30% chance of rain so we went and ended up getting rained on.
Could you please explain transposable elements in maize for us?
getting rain is drawing the short straw? I live in Phoenix, and we treasure every day that we are lucky enough to get rain.
It means "We haven't got the foggiest idea!"
I remember one day that produced supercell thunderstorms and a tornado with wrap around rain curtains. The forecast had been 15% chance of rain. "It probably won't rain on your picnic." the meteorologist said.
This was very helpful... except that since the meteorologists admit to being inconsistent we don't really know what a particular forecast means.
Personally, I would rather see the % based on the chance of rain anywhere in the zone. If we knew there was a 10% or a 100% chance of rain within the city limits, we would know what to expect. Here in SF if you're dealing with the leading edge of a front either everyone is going to get wet or no one is. So the % would tell us if the front is going to reach us.
For the trailing edge, we would know the rain would be localized so a 10% chance would mean the back end of the front looks really dry and we probably won't get anything while 100% would tell us that some place are going to get clobbered.
its only the "short straw" if you didnt want it to rain
100% reason to remember the rain
Perfect video! That’s a subscribe from me, dawg.
Before the video I thought I knew what it meant, now I don't...
What a coincidence. I just checked the weather forecast 5 min ago and it said 50% chance of precipitation tomorrow
A meteorologist is just about the only occupation where you can be wrong consistently and still keep a job.
50% change - maybe it will or maybe it won't. We re used to that in the UK.
There's always a 50% chance of rain. It either rains or it doesn't 50/50
How exactly do you measure "level of confidence"?
I know this video is old but I've been directed here by Hank's new video on '5 Ways Humans Make It Rain". Wanna hear about "picking the short straw"?? In June, 2010, I left for a wedding in the morning. The forecasts locally were very positive, gave the area for the entire day a 5% chance of precipitation. And around here, 5% is more along the lines of 0%. This was what was expected in the weekly forecasts as well. I believe we weren't even on the map for any risks according to national metrology. So I went to my friend's wedding. My husband had to stay home because he had just had surgery on his ankle. So I took a friend. My home is in NW Ohio, and the wedding was about 4 hours away in Coshocton, Ohio, in SE Ohio. But I had a bad feeling and I had no idea why. After the wedding, we all went back to a cottage they had rented for a small party, and behind the cottage was a tributary. It was part of a whole system that begins at Lake Erie. We were outside for about 2 hours or so... beautiful weather, sun was out, it was a perfect day overall. But the tributary began as just another typical, tiny river and in 2 hours, it had burst it's banks and was creeping up to the backyard. Creepy AF, but I wasn't putting 2 and 2 together. So my friend and I, around 1am, head out to our hotel room, blah blah blah, I get us checked in, it's all good. I sat down, turned on my cell phone, and as soon as it found a tower, I couldn't even count how many text messages were sent to me. When it finally stopped, I called my husband. Before I could even say hello, I could hear tornado sirens. 5% chance of precipitation turned into 4 EF4 tornadoes that destroyed my whole town. Now that is seriously drawing the short straw right there.
Yeah, last Tuesday it was raining like the end of the World, with furious winds and thunder. Looked at the phone weather and it said for that particular hour "Partially clouded with 30% chance of rain" ¬¬
1:01 - them's gaming words
That sounds so subjective
It means you can safely take only half of the umbrella with you.
Do a video of what makes all garbage have that very distinct smell
And don't forget this about the weather guessers: Just two weeks before the cold snap in Texas the guessers were predicting WARMER than average for the rest of the winter. Guess they got that one right also.
I was led to believe that, here in the UK, probability of precipitation was based on the percentage of computer models run where the outcome was rain.
1. Why short straw? I love rain.
2. Where is the facial hair?
love you scishow
To further understand the likelihood of rain, it would be beneficial to know the size of the forecast area in question. Is this my neighborhood district, city, county, etc?
Nate Silver says some meteorologists have a wet bias because surprise rain draws more complaints than surprise sunshine.
I used to work at a golf course and we would be staring at the weather radar all the time to see if it'll rain on days when they say it has a 60% chance. It all depends on the wind and number of green cells. Sure, it's only an hour or so of warning, but it's more accurate than just looking at the forecast.
yeah,,alot of them have been wrong for my area this last summer used to you could count on the3 day forecast being close to it,, but now its all nope , makes me wonder how the eclipse will affect the weather?
Ahh the bleached tips are back!
#question If a water strider gets under water - can it get back on the surface or does it have to swim to the shore and dry off before it can?
It means...
if you bring umbrella then no rain, if you forget umbrella then heavy rain
My meteorologist friend says that he will still go to an outdoor event as long as the probability is below 80%.
I can smell Rain. Not many people can. It smells like a mild flowery scent, BTW it's not actually the rain itself but a combination of the air pressure and humidity. So you can smell it, before it starts raining sometimes hours before.
We can get a better forecast with the"Electric Theory". Not only is cloud formation understood but natural disasters like earthquakes can be more accurately anticipated.
So it never rains here cus I don't have enough confidence :(
we are basically the batman's of nature if we dont have the ability to fly me create a plane, not as fast as a cheetah? just make a car. it actually makes the other superheros look like primative creatures compared to batman
Here's an idea for an episode. The effect of weather on people's moods. Like how people living here in washington get depressed every fall.
well i sure hope it doesnt ran on my trip coming friday :(
If the entire forecast area gets rain tho, call your meteorologist and complain. Because either his confidence was far too low or the extrapolation of the forecast area was far too narrow.