Time series forecasting: Exploring hybrid strategies with singular spectrum analysis

Distinguished Visitor Lecture - QUT Centre for Data Science
Speaker: Professor Paulo Canas Rodrigues, Professor of Statistics at the Federal University of Bahia (Brazil) and the Head & Principal Investigator of the Statistical Learning Laboratory (SaLLy).
Abstract: Time series forecasting plays a key role in areas such as energy, environment, economy, and finances. Hybrid methodologies, combining the results of statistical, mathematical, and machine learning methods, have become popular for time series analysis and forecasting, as they allow researchers to compensate for the limitations of one approach with the strengths of the other and combine them into new frameworks while improving forecasting accuracy. In this class of methods, algorithms for time series forecasting are applied sequentially, i.e., the second algorithm is applied to the residuals that were not captured by the first one. In this seminar, I will discuss several hybrid strategies for time series forecasting that use singular spectrum analysis, classical time series models, and recurrent neural networks, with application to electricity load forecasting and to PM10 (inhalable particles, with diameters that are generally 10 micrometers and smaller) forecasting. I will also discuss some other ongoing research projects.
Bio: Paulo Canas Rodrigues is a Professor of Statistics at the Federal University of Bahia and the Head & Principal Investigator of the Statistical Learning Laboratory (SaLLy). He completed his Ph.D. in Statistics at the Nova University of Lisbon, Portugal (2012), and his Aggregation (Habilitation) in Mathematics, with a specialization in Statistics and Stochastic Processes, at the Lisbon University, Portugal (2019). His research in statistical learning, statistics, and data science resulted in more than 90 scientific papers in collaboration with 132 co-authors from 62 universities in 24 countries and delivered more than 150 invited talks and seminars. He was Vice-President of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics (ISBIS; 2009-2011, 2011-2013), President of the Brazilian Region of the International Biometric Society (RBras; 2018-2020; 2020-2022), Co-Founder and Chairman of the Latin American Regional Section of the International Association for Statistical Computing (2017-2019), and the Chair of the Special Interest Group on Data Science of the International Statistical Institute (2021-2023). He co-founded the Latin American Conference on Statistical Computing (LACSC) and the Conference on Statistics and Data Science (CSDS). Among other activities, he is currently the President of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics (ISBIS), President-Elect of the International Association for Statistical Computing, Member of the Representative Council of the International Biometric Society, member of the Board of Directors of the Brazilian Statistical Association, and ex-officio Council Member of the International Statistical Institute.

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All the going back and forth in the slides is distracting and confusing for the audience.