QuakeCoRE Seminar: The Future of Earthquake Simulators for Hazard Assessment in Aotearoa NZ (2024)

QuakeCoRE Seminar Series: The Future of Earthquake Simulators for Hazard Assessment in Aotearoa New Zealand - Andy Nicol (2024)
Presenter: Andy Nicol (University of Canterbury)
Abstract:
Earthquake simulators are increasingly being used to understand seismic processes and hazards. These models use a 3D model of active faults together with approximations of earthquake physics to produce moderate to great earthquakes over geological timescales (up to millions of years). They provide information about ground motions and surface displacements, which can inform multiple perils. Over the last 5 years, we have developed multiple RSQSim simulator models for Aotearoa New Zealand (A-NZ). These models provide insights into the range of possible earthquake sequences and scenarios for both high slip-rate faults (e.g., Alpine Fault and Hikurangi subduction thrust), and low-seismic areas. However, the current earthquake simulations are first-generation and must evolve in the coming years to improve their underpinning physics and utility for seismic, tsunami and landslide hazard assessment. In this talk, I will summarise the present status of earthquake simulations in A-NZ and discuss the future work necessary before these models should be used to inform life-safety decisions. In my view, over the next 5-10 years, earthquake simulators will become increasingly important for hazard and risk assessment in A-NZ.
Bio:
Andy is a professor of Geosciences at the University of Canterbury in the School of Earth and Environment, having previously worked at GNS Science for 20 years. He studies earthquakes in Aotearoa New Zealand and overseas to understand better earthquake processes and seismic hazards. His research interests include historical and prehistorical earthquakes, changes in earthquake behaviour in space and through time, quantification of sample incompleteness, seismicity induced by human activity and earthquake simulators. Andy is co-leader of the Resilience to Natures Challenges Earthquake and Tsunami theme, a member of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Core Team and an Associate Editor for NZJGG. He has published over 300 research papers, book chapters and reports, and collaborates widely with national and international researchers.