Venezuela, Guyana & The Essequibo Crisis - Posturing or a new Special Military Operation?
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- Опубліковано 25 чер 2024
- Until recently, the comparatively small nation of Guyana didn't make global news particularly often. What was reported was generally a good news story - With oil discoveries and growing production driving rapid economic growth in the historically poor nation.
Now the nation is in the global spotlight as with the escalation of a centuries old territorial dispute, and neighbouring Venezuela asserting an intention to incorporate more than two thirds of Guyana's current territory into Venezuela.
Is the move simply domestically focused theatre, an attempt to pressure Guyana and the USA, or the prelude to a South American take on the 'Special Military Operation?' In this episode we discuss the nations involved, their motivations, resources, and try to ask why this is happening, and what may come next.
One note: I want to feature up here I refer to Russia as an OPEC member as shorthand in this video. They are more accurately described as a member of OPEC+ .
Patreon:
/ perunau
Relevant Reading/sourcing (to be expanded)
On the 1899 Arbitration
Awardlegal.un.org/riaa/cases/vol_X...
1966 Agreement to Resolve the Controversy over the Frontier between Venezuela and British Guiana (Geneva Agreement)
peacemaker.un.org/sites/peace...
Relevant ICJ releases and hearing records:
www.icj-cij.org/case/171
ICJ Order of 1 December 2023
www.icj-cij.org/sites/default...
IMF Profile: Guyana
www.imf.org/external/datamapp...
IMF Profile: Venezuela
www.imf.org/external/datamapp...
Featured Reports:
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
edition.cnn.com/2023/12/06/am...
apnews.com/article/venezuela-...
www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
www.reuters.com/business/ener...
www.reuters.com/business/ener...
www.reuters.com/business/ener...
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular - I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Venezuela & Guyana
00:01:28 - What Am I Talking About?
00:02:34 - Venezuela
00:07:36 - Guyana
00:15:35 - Essequibo & Escalation
00:24:55 - Venezuela's Military
00:36:47 - Readiness, Manpower & Corruption
00:41:29 - Guyana's Military
00:43:30 - A Venezuelan Special Military Operation?
00:51:21 - Regional Actors
00:58:13 - A Risky Throw Of The Dice?
01:04:37 - Conclusion
01:05:36 - Channel Update
Firstly - I have COVID again and its awful. As a result this one might be a bit rougher than usual as I've often had to, for example, chop together bits of audio to remove coughs or parts where my voice didn't sound right. Apologies - hope it won't be an issue next week.
Secondly - thank you to all of you who voted for this topic. It was great to get a chance to jump over to South America for a week - and it really confirmed for me that I'd love to cover some of the major regional players like Brazil in the future.
Thirdly I want to make sure it's clear that I think it's important as always to distinguish between the actions of certain leaders (like Maduro) and the country they lead. For any Venezuelans watching (especially those of you who reached out and offered your thoughts and comments) - please don't take any slight against a particular leader as a negative statement towards the country or its people more broadly.
Finally - a note I want to add on listening back today. I refer to Russia as an OPEC member as shorthand - but it would be more accurate to describe them as part of OPEC+. That larger group has been at the fore recently - especially since late 2022's production cuts. The distinction doesn't impact the imperative of consumer countries to get more production online outside the OPEC+ grouping - but I thought it was worth a note.
Get well soon
Get well soon!
You took the vaxx, didn't you
Hi Perun, get better bro. It's not if you ever had Covid, now a days it's about how many times one gets Covid. Booster s for the win.
Hey, no worries- if necessary, take a break, I don't think anyone would mind.
An oil-rich nation lead by a dictator with a glorious stache is about to attack a small, neighbouring nation that also happens to be rich in oil.
We are witnessing history repeating itself.
that's it! there's a pattern here! damn, humanity seems to really never learn!
I await the inevitable Maduro hiding in a bunker memes.
Guyana is also English-speaking and has a very close connection to the UK. The parallels are staggering
If I'm honest the US is maybe done with Middle Eastern wars enough atm I could maybe see us not getting involved directly in something similar over there but in South America feels like we'd probably Monroe Doctrine all over Venezuela no matter how isolationist the population is feeling.
And now the US, China, and whatever’s left of Russia get to pretend to be concerned with maintaining some imaginary international jurisprudence by protecting a country most of their citizens don’t even know exists while secretly negotiating with both sides and picking whoever’s more willing to be a puppet/rentboy.
Gotta love the classics 😌
"Never rule out stupid" is a very important and often forgotten lesson when trying to predict what people will do. Thank you for including it.
As a Chilean historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
ironic. says the guy who listens to what this clown has to say
That's why I spare any thought to the possibility of a Taiwan invasion.
A rational, sane leader would have never invaded Ukraine, and yet here we are.
@@avpguy11 A rational, sane leader wouldn't have broken the Geneva Agreement of 1966,and yet here we are, with Guyana giving rights in the zone w/o the agreement of Venezuela, as the treaty demands!
"I've got COVID, therefore fuck it I'm still uploading a 1h+ high-quality video perfectly on schedule". Truly admiring your work ethics! Thank you
I really admire what he does. To be fair i would prefer for him to rest and recover. I think in healthy work ethics one should never feel obliged to work when ill. I hope he does not force himself to burnout.
My country, Paraguay, used to be led by a similarly insane dictator (Solano López), who believed that Paraguay should conquer Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina to find the way to the sea.
The result was the destruction of Paraguay as a state. I hope Venezuelans understand that it is not cool to wage a destructive war with little return, but, since Russia is the one in control of Venezuela, I have no faith on it.
That was such a tragic war and it's unfortunate that it's so unknown around the world.
Don't bet your car on it.
The fact you think lopez was a mad dictator just shows you are iliterate on the story of your own country, pityful.
@@eugenioderevell3826 So you suggest another destruction of Paraguay?
@@eugenioderevell3826 Say delusional Venezuelan.
As a Trinidadian, it is extremely concerning what going on with our neighbors. Of greater concern is the overwhelming lack of action from CARICOM.
Venezuela's published map of claimed territory has a chunk of Trinidadian water!
Do you have time to develop nukes?
@@RJStockton Lmao, what kind of question is that?
@@zagreus5773 A rhetoric one.
@@zagreus5773 A jokey one.
That reminds me of another dictator. Any signs Maduro is sitting on very long tables lately?
as a venezuelan myself i feel truly honored that perun is making a video about this situation.
love form venezuela, and i wish a quick recovery from covid.
cheers. And please don't take anything I say about Maduro as a slight against the country itself.
do you feel like Venezuelan soldiers will obey if they are ordered into a war?
obedience is part of a soldiers training since the dawn of time. whether the soldier stays obedient after a bit of enemy contact is another question @@Adonnus100
@@Adonnus100 soldiers will do what they are ordered to do, as long as they're paid. There are cases where this is not true. There are also cases of soldiers obeying orders without pay.
@@Adonnus100where does this sentiment come from? 99.999% of soldiers will obey orders, even if it doesn’t makes sense to others not involved.
As a Guyanese who has been watching your vids for a while now. Thanks for this
When you talked about deployed versus maintenance time, I remember joking back when I was in the Canadian navy that we're the only nation in the world who's submarines have spent more time in the air than our helicopters.
Venezuelan here. With all the clutter in the media lately thank you so much for presenting the situation with all its nuances as well as talking issues which have gone relatively unnoticed during the fast few days such as the manpower shortages.
I for one believe Maduro's play is for internal politics and a means of saving face after the opposition primaries. Most of the populace dislikes Maduro so I do not think he will gamble away what could very well be a disastrous war with awful consequences for his regime. Time will tell that hopefully that (a war) is not the case
This is not going to end well for Venezuelans
@@Deadflushwell at this point everything already didn't ended well for Venezuelans. It's not like it's cannot get worse, Maduro and his regime are extremely competent when it comes to make things worse, but the country's already so deep in brown sauce it's kinda strange to say "this is not going to end well".
@@DeadflushBest outcome for them is that Maduro chickens out and also loses grip on power. If he goes the Russian way his regime will probably weaken but the cost for average Venezuelans would be terrible obviously (not as bad as Guyanans, sure)
@link6248icp I believe you. It isn't the first time Maduro has threatened to invade a neighbor. Maduro has threatened to invade the Dutch ABC Islands, but then he decided to simply not do this. Maybe because he knew his Navy is sh*t and an attack on those islands would lead to a sort of NATO response. France, UK and the USA would've intervened and this would've meant game over for Maduro.
However, Guyana is different. Guyana is having that Ukraine problem that the longer you wait annexing Guyana, the harder it gets for Venezuela to do so. Also, Russia is begging Maduro to do so. Maybe China as well, because when the Venezuelans seize control over the oil platforms, China doesn't have to share ownership with the Americans anymore.
So maybe Maduro might be pushed over the edge this time. Especially since they know from that failed coup attempt from Trump's PMC the Americans are going to have a hard time in Guyana as well. It's those British Vietcong like special forces that are going to be a problem though. Maybe the Dutch special forces stationed at Suriname too if Geert Wilders isn't going to block this, a power he might have if he's able to convince the Dutch parliament to install his party's chairman Martin Bosma, a very good chairman, but unfortunately also a man that can become the Dutch Mike Johnson.
What do you mean "most of the populace dislikes Maduro"?! My leftist friends keep telling me that he is a hero of the people and has 123% approval rate!
So Emutopia can't use a internal referendum to claim the North Island of Kiwiland?
It was a referendum held by Kiwilander's in the North Island and we expect the international community to recognize our rightful control of it.
Of course it can! Just don't expect international recognition of the results.
There is no historical Kiwiland, only greater Emutopia!
I heard that Nicholas Burke Gaffe SPAMS his his contact info on COMPLETELY unrelated comment and is, as the Kiddos say, Highly SUS as a result
Threads@KennethMcKenzie-gm5vn
SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAMMITY SPAMMMMMMMMMMM@AmarachiLovington-ft3cz
As a chilean with an enormous venezuelan inmigrants in my country this is a gift for me to understand a rather unknown topic, thanks Perun
Of course there's no reason to think Putin's regime had any part in encouraging Maduro to take this path.
I mean, it's not in any way hoped this further distracts the US from its support for Ukraine...
Well… the irony is there… that convoy sure was something eh? Shame about those rockets
The US resolving this amounts to an Atlantic side CVBG doing the kind of Training Exercises they do anyways in the Caribbean.
Even at current reduced strength a single US CVN carries around half again the number of Fighters as possessed by the entire Venezuela Air Force, and they're going to tend to better equipped, trained etc. Venezuela actually doing anything like this in the USN's lake amounts to a invitation for the Venezuelan Air Force and Navy to be referred to in the past tense.
I have a friend in the Peace Corps in Guyana. He is afraid for the people he has made friends so this is a much appreciated video, thank you
Hey, what is the Guyanan Peace Corps? I mean that as a legit question. Is it like a militia to defend Guyana?
@@mercenarygundam1487 It's a volunteer agency that helps lower income countries with things that need technical skills like vaccines, environment, education...
@@mercenarygundam1487 It’s a US Agency that provides foreign aid to other countries through education, vaccines and all that :) It’s an entirely peaceful group. My friend is there teaching sustainability. Specifically because of the recently discovered resources there.
@Stubbert Oh, so they are like a humanitarian volunteer unit?
so, he is part of making sure the Guyanans dont get out from under the US(or is it still the french)...? I see...
Maduro, "We have to invade Guyana." Why, "They are deomcracy and are succeeding and we aren't"
It is not a democracy, it is not a nation.
Hmmmm sounds familiar
Sounds familiar
As a Chilean historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
Yeah, calling a referrendum on the matter. Typical dictatorship move
So, you have COVID and you still *on short notice* brought out an excellent video on a rapidly developing topic? What an absolute Chad.
Speaking of shifting focus to different areas for a change of pace: A video on Ethiopia's position with conflicts brewing over their damming of the Nile for hydro power (in particular with Egypt) and possibly Eritrea over sea access as a landlocked country - that would be informative for a potential future hotspot.
The damn never really mattered and now it specially doesn't matter as its already filling without affecting the downstream nations. The entire issue was just Egypt chest-thumping for propaganda reasons.
As to the sea access issue: that can easily end Ethiopia. Issue is similar in that at least for now the safe bet is Ethiopia is just chest thumping for the same reason Maduro is, political pressure in an attempt to fix their internal issues and shit economy.
But much like with Maduro, never rule out stupid. Ethiopia's "president" (heh) is ruling over a collapsing nation with ceaseless internal conflicts that make his nobel peace price look downright sarcastic, has recently gotten a substantial part of his army wiped out trying to invade Sudan and aid Somalia's efforts to invade Somaliland, has as such lost a lot of his capacity to keep the secessionists inactive, and has pushed for centralizing, authoritarian actions that have earned him the hatred of a significant portion of his population. He's dumb, desperate, and holds way too much power for any nation's good. That's practically the perfect concoction for a good old round of very stupid decissions leading to war.
Also an analysis of the recent Ethiopian Civil War, it was glossed over by so many news outlets and was pretty big (and insanely brutal and seesaw).
God damn...going from $19K PPP to $61K PPP...anyone who has ever gone from being poor to upper-middle class can imagine how that feels.
The government has that money. Best evidence I can find suggests there is no talk what-so-ever of a voucher process to actually give the money to the citizenry. Instead, they're going to spend the money directly on infrastructure...which usually means using the wealth to transform the ruling class into the super rich via insanely high government salaries for loyalty buying and corruption while the majority of the population continues living in abject poverty, just with better roads.
It’s unequal distribution the average fisherman is not receiving anything but prices are going up
@@Nick0wnszIf Guyana's government is smart they will consult with Norway and establish a sovereign wealth fund also set aside a percentage of profits as direct payments to all adult citizens.
The aspect of Guyana being non-OPEC means that there may be an additional pressure behind the scenes for Maduro to act, since there is so much money and power on the line. But having seen Ukraine, with a bunch of drones and an element of surprise, Guyana could perhaps find a way to cripple Venezuela's military early on
Guyana doesn't need to do anything. The US will wipe out Venezuela's military in a couple of hours and the rest of Latin America would support it since their ilegal migrants from Venezuela are plaguing the whole continent.
I would not call what Venezuela has a military, it's the saddest thing I have ever see.
@@jeckjeck3119 It might be depressing but, that doesn’t they aren’t something to be mindful of. Never underestimate your foe.
@@MultiKbarry
True, you don't need a powerful military for your actions to be felt decades later. Like with Mussolini.
As a Chilean historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
As a Brit, finding out that the lettuce could last longer than Maduro really made my day.
As a Chilean historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
Maduro the surname also means ripe plantain in some Spanish speaking countries. I like to call him Presidente Maduro Frito aka President Fried Banana for short.
@@user-cr1vw5qy6m It only means Ripe. Maduro Frito means Ripe Fried. Nonsense.
@@Vichikuma
I beg to differ, In Chile perhaps. You evidently have not been to many other Spanish speaking countries.
In Nicaragua and Costa Rica to name just two countries the term maduro means ripe plantain which is fried. There is even a dish called maduros en gloria. Which is over ripe plantain that it sprinkled with brown sugar, then baked. Um delicious!
I am very familiar with your country which has expressions, turns of phrase totally different to terms employed elsewhere. There are dozens of websites with photographs of maduros en gloria with recipes. Just because you are not familiar with the usage employed in another country does not make it incorrect.
Certain terms or phrases used in your country, polola, pololeando, quedar en pana, empanadas de pino, etc mean absolutely nothing in other countries.
The names of fruit and vegetables across Latin American can create headaches not only for non native speakers but also for native speakers of Spanish where terms and words do not mean the same from country to country, in some cases they mean the exact opposite.
A banana in Mexico is called a platano. In Central America a region I am very familiar with, that is incorrect as a banano is a banana and a platano is a plantain. One of the fruits common in your country and Peru for example Lucuma is simply unknown on other countries. I cannot place the proper accents because of the keyboard.
@@Vichikuma maduro nm CO, EC, BO (plátano guineo) ripe plantain n
Los maduros son bananos para cocinar.
Ripe plantains are bananas used for cooking.
So will Colombia be holding a referendum to incorporate Venezuela back into Greater Columbia?
Russia logic: Venezuela isn't a real country. It is part of Spain and should be brought back into the Empire.
I can hold a referendum to declare myself a nation state
COLOMBIA
Just wait until Spain does his referendum...😂
@@samuelgordino too asleep to get back gibraltar
A tangent, since sanctions are a hot topic in this story: Venezuela's latest bout of extreme poverty and starvation began a couple years before most sanctions hit, and before oil prices tanked in his regime. In 2012-2013 the venezuelan government established strict limitations on who can trade in dollars and how much, effectively nationalizing money exchange. In a matter of months the farms ran out of critical supplies and food was no longer being made.
You mean a government bean counter who has never left the city doesn't know what a farm needs to run effectively?! Colour me shocked
To add to that, one of the aspects that really broke our economy was that before the strict limitations of trade, everyone was gaming the system, the government was extremely generous with the access of dollar at the pegged rate so people just went to Cuba for example to withdraw 3k$ that onces you got to Venezuela you could sell them for about 5k$ in bolivars. Expand this to companies inflating invoice cost from thousand to hundred of thousands and you will actually see how we managed to break the economy in just about 2-3 years.
Pair that with price controls, expropiations, a bloated public Sector and general disdain in Venezuela for maintenance and we can see how we broke our economy
What a shock, a nu-Communist derived government causes a famine due to its staggering corruption and incompetence… history doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes.
I feel pity for the poor buggers that make up the bottom of Venezuelan society.
@@MartynWilkinson45it wasn’t a bean counter. It was done by a politician, who knows the consequences of their decision, in favor of his greedy voter base, who are too stupid to know the consequences of their decision.
As a Chilean historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
Prayers for our country Guyana 🇬🇾 we never had war here 🇬🇾. This matter was settled since 1899😢
Hopefully this will blow over as little more than a lot of rumbling and grumbling, but no hostile action.
@@dgs3002 Never discount the stupidity, the hubris of a dictator backed into a corner of his own making.
The Paris Arbitration of 1899 is the most fraudulent one in all history.
General Galtieri next door might be stupid enough to invade, being ready for war is the best guarantor of peace.
You also probably need a powerful backer, like Brazil or USA to open a military base to keep Venezuela away.
The world doesn't sent care about faith or .feelings you just sound ignorant
To add on the "zoom out a little" part of the video.
Basically next to Guyana is French Guyana, a French state with the European Space Agency main installations.
Meaning France and Europe have already high stakes in the region, even when discarding oil reserves.
I also consider this crisis as a good opportunity for europeans to get closer to Guyana officials, by supporting them militarily and economicaly.
Who knows what befriending a future oil state would give back later on?..
actually next to Guyana is Suriname that's next to french Guiana. all 3 guianas have border disputes with each other.
More oil from Gyana against OPEC crime syndicate?
@@justsaying4303
It could be a good occasion to straigh those questions out against a common foe to fight.
Especially since the Foreign Legion is based in Guyane.
As a Chilean historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
Guyana's situation has attracted great interests in India here. Guyana is deeply close to India more than any country else (perhaps only Suriname rivalled it), because over 30-40% of Guyanese populations are Indians, plus Guyana has many Indian festivals officially recognised by the government. Currently the President and Vice President of Guyana are both Indians (Irfaan Ali and Bharrat Jagdeo), the Vice President's name even resonated more to India because his first name, "Bharrat", means "India" in Sanskrit. Moreover, Guyana has been portrayed largely positive in India, because Guyana is, since independence, a neutral state and has no interest in going to war or join any military alliance.
To see a Putinist-style expansionist regime of Hispanic ancestry that already discriminated Indians to wage war against a country so close to India is shocking, and I heard even Indo-Guyanese students studying in India has urged Indian government to use all diplomatic channels to prevent Venezuela from launching a full-scale invasion of Guyana. However, the decision could not be done without the tacit approval from the Russians, since Putin and Maduro are allies. But by going as far as tacitly backing Venezuela's military buildup, Putin shows he is not a friend to any Indian or India, and that India is only used as a tool for Russian imperialists to propagate their "friendship" that, unfortunately, no longer exists due to recent disputes over currency paying and Russia's tacit support for China against India.
Don't worry, US will protect Guyana and take care of Maduro.
One have to be seriously hit in the head to think "Putin is a friend to any Indian or India, and totally not uses India as a tool for Russian imperialists". So much so one won't change his mind, no matter that pooteen really does.
@@zhoubaidinh403 Will we, though? We can't even seem to understand the basic idea of who won an election, so I don't know if we could get the legislature to agree long enough for a war to be declared without some big and immediate threat to the US. Giving Guyana weapons like we have been doing for Ukraine doesn't really seem to be a way to 'take care' of Maduro.
India rejected the free world over Ukraine. Serve your own interests as you say. Alone.
@@mashdown3 India has 1,4 billion and it has been struggling to feed. That's why it has imported from both Russia and Ukraine to feed citizens. You forget that India still resents the West over what happened in 1971, when the West backed genocidal Pakistan in Bangladesh. A wasted move.
India doesn't abandon the free world over Ukraine, but it has problems to deal at home. It is threatened by Pakistan and China, both are danger for the free world. If anything, the West should realise that they have the opportunities to fix the relations, cause India has been switching to Western weapons recently in the aftermath of Russia's treacherous acts against India. Your comment is hateful, ridiculous and totally out of touch.
When I first heard about this move by Venezuela my first thought was that it was prompted by the Russians to split the attention of the EU and US from the Ukraine as well as to prop up the political and economic needs of the Venezuelan administration.
Agree, had that same thought, however cynical it is. . . . .
I still believe that Putin has his hand in this. The latest military exercise in Russia was attended by Venezuelan troops.
It’s possible, but let’s be honest....the US could basically wipe out the Venezuelan military and barely break a sweat. The US could just send a Marine assault ship (aka mini carrier) with F-35s and a couple of destroyers, and heavy bombers from the US could fly nearly with impunity. These would support Brazil and Colombia, which would do most of the ground fighting. Britain and France might even get involved here since they have interests in the region.
The americans could deploy 10k men and 20 aircraft to guyana, which would probably be enough to keep maduro from having stupid ideas, and not even notice the burden. If they got the brazilians and/or british on board it would be even easier.
That would be incredibly destabilizing for BRICS. Having a Russian ally possibly fight Brazil isn’t very bright.
Greetings from Finland and thank you for another interesting video.
Unsurprisingly I think that Guyana should be allowed the chance and opportunity to better itself without power mad autocrat messing with it.
I wish good luck for the people of Guyana and Venezuela both. May you live free and safe.
Finland is ready to support Guyana by providing more ice-strengthened cruise ships to ram the Venezuelan navy. RCGS Resolute is a Finnish design.
There are no "oil rigs" off Guyana. There are FPSO's as in stationary ships which both drill and store/load oil onto tankers. Just two of them at present. At least 4 are scheduled. The oil has been exported to the US and Europe this far. Hess sold its share to Chevron. Other players are also attempting to develop oilfields, Shell and Total being two of them.
The oilfield service companies in Guyana are mostly American and most of them from Louisiana. These services range from supplying drilling fluids, to offshore workboats (up to 10,000 tons in size) and manufacturing of subsea production modules on the seabed.
Guyana has been looking for someone to build a refinery (approx 30,000 BPD) as well as to fund it. It would likely be more cost effective to sent the oil as a payment in kind for royalties and ship it to nearest efficient refineries, as in the US Gulf Coast and have the oil refined for it on a tolling agreement. The government originally wanted the refinery on Crab Island, a mangrove swamp on the Essequibo River, east bank.
The world needs more oil producers (Thanks to OPECs BS), and if said producer is a democracy, that's even better!
Less dependence on Middle East is always welcome.
Thank you, it's a really interesting problem, I imagine, that's a bare deep sea field, with effectively no land block for wind from most directions. Waves cannot be small, and being on a corner is likely facing cross-hatch seas.
@@up4open hurricanes never go into that area of the Caribbean. FPSOs are common off west Africa and off Australia. There are even a few off Louisiana.
There are more incentives for having a refinery in your own country, though, like jobs (meaning some of the money reaches your actual people) and possibly further development, some diversification of the economy, a bit more independence from foreign interests, and so on. Even if not the cheapest thing to start with, having some processing capacity of the raw materials you produce is usually a good idea.
As a latinamerican historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
Venezuela:
We had one of the most prosperous nations in the Western Hemisphere due to efficient exploitation of our vast oil reserves.
Then we nationalized the oil fields, let the marxist government run the oil fields and are now impoverished.
What's the solution?
Get more oil fields for the government!
This would actually be laughably farcical, if it wasn't going to result in combat and casualties.
They can barely get oil out of the ground.
Solution: let's drill from the sea floor.
@@badluck5647😂 too true
You people voted for this tyrant and the so called opposition just let him take power by not standing in elections I mean how thick and stupid is that. Hamas has brought about the destruction of Gaza and brought hell down upon a people, But it was those people that voted Hamas into power and voted for them to continue their terror campaign upon the people of Israel. There would be none of this going on in Gaza if Iran was no arming the terror groups and the people there had not voted hamas into power. The people in Venezuala brought all of this upon themselves by voting in Maduro.
prosperous for its bought off 1%. the rest was poor and massively disenfranchised by a massive wealth gap. so lets not look back with rose colored glasses. if previous regimes were able to share the wealth even a little v's airforce and army would not have rebelled against it which is where the cur gov came from. corruption is not a new phenomena tho many with agendas who cant see clearly like to think.
The government of Venezuela was spendthrift with the oil money long before Chavez.
Does Perun mention that Maduro has a parrot through which he can speak to Chavez’s ghost? Because Maduro says he does. His dealings with the supernatural should not be discounted in a scenario of war.
guyana has the obeahman and every other supernatural force from all its ethnic groups
To be fair, Mr rock is probably at least an 80% less crappy option than what the other 2 parties will put forth..... Also 10¢ a gallon is absolutely getting my vote
Patriotic colored rock in favor of cheap oil is indeed a sure winner!
Perun managing to work "The Bois" into geopolitical discussion with zero face curvature has me deceased
I love when UA-camrs get right down to businesses
There is a tiny difference between Russian aggression against Ukraine and Venezuela's possible aggression against Ecuador: Russia has nuclear weapons and can't be bombed into oblivion without repercussions.
Venezuela has not.
Its Guyana not Ecuador
@@ReZel80657 ofcourse. Guyana.
Venezuela: we want Ecuador
Colombia: what?
As noted in the video dufus.
I knew they forgot something when they went on their buying spree!
God seriously needs to get a new script. We already did the "Unpopular South American dictator invades small former british colony to legitimise himself" bit.
Well, this the era of reboots.
In previous times the French would be straight in with a bilateral defence agreement, Totale would start pumping oil as primary contractor and the Legion's capacity in French Guyana would be tripled.
Yeah, I think nowadays they are done with having soldiers die in other people's wars and being treated like shit for it.
Dude, please consult a world atlas before you embarrass yourself. French Guyana is a completely different country and doesn't even share a border with Guyana or Venezuela.
@@Sakeretsu They're definitely not done with that, the French military is all over Africa. Do the places known as Libya, Niger and Mali sound familiar to you? France gets a huge amount of energy resources (oil, uranium) from its former colonies, which makes "other people's wars" become their wars.
@@charleswyllie426 calm down fella, proximity is less important than intention. French already deploy anti-narcotics patrols in the waters off Guyana. They have the capability , but would be slow to overtly challenge the Monroe Doctrine
France coupd without much issue station DuGualle's CMAG and a couple Triomphants in the caribbean, issue an ultimatum at 7 in the morning, and remove Venezuelas entire military high command and its ability to mobilize by 8am the same day. I doubt the US would care much.
CORRECTION: 1:00 The ship collision was not accidental. The Naiguata (a 1,500 tonne Venezuelan patrol ship) repeatedly rammed the RCGS Resolute cruise ship in international waters trying to force her into a Venezuelan port. The Resolute has a reinforced ice breaking hull. The Naiguata sank.
I wonder if the RCGS Resolute painted a kill mark after sinking the Venezeulan warship?
@@Rob_F8FThat’s one hell of an advertising strategy.
“Sail the seas on the only cruise ship with a confirmed warship kill”
I remember that. 'The RCGS resolute, being a cruise liner specialised in penguin bothering, had a hull designed to bounce off icebergs. The patrol vessel on the other hand was only ever intended to handle water in it's liquid state'.
30:45 lol
Thanks for putting this out Perun. Ed Nash recently did a quick video, but to get your in-depth analysis out, to your informed audience, is really a very good thing.
As a Chilean historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
🥺 Get better Perun. Covid is no fun. Even in its minor form.
Also, I have been following this all last week. Fascinating. Thanks for covering this!
I think Venezuela has a few major risk factors for western intervention here:
1. Venezuela has long beeing a boogeyman for the political right, so they have no problems calling for an intervention.
2. Ukraine has re-awakened most of the political left to the possibility that dumb old invasions still occur and that wielding military power to defend a fellow democracy is actually good.
3. Venezuela's behaviour and motives are so transparent and easy to explain that it is not hard to mobilise voters against them.
4. Venezuela is so weak and isolated that unless Russia is willing to risk a major upset (during its own struggling invasion), any larger military could intervene at minimal risk. At the very least providing benefits like a no-fly zone and airstrikes if they can get a nearby airbase or operate carriers (i.e. most likely the US or Britain).
"Venezuela's behavior and motives are so transparent and easy to explain that it is not hard to mobilise voters against them".
I'm afraid you're giving to much credit to the ordinary voter. Russian behavior and motives in Ukraine also were (and are) laid bare. And yet, here we are, with the large part of GOP voters and politicians clearly on side of russia. Ronald Regan is rolling in his grave...
@@igorwoek502 Yes but the Venezuelans are Socialists.
The GOP aren't very fond of them.
@@igorwoek502 ukraine seems like a european problem(neighbor) and an african problem(food supplier)..... ukraine should appeal to african countries who do not want russia to hold food as a weapon over their heads to send recruits to fight for a free ukraine. Much of africa will become russian serfs if they let ukraine fall. USA should not be involved until europe ponies up the 100's of billions they have shirked in military investments over the past 40 years. Once a NATO ally is attacked, i'm all in. Until then - its your problem.
@@peetky8645 and there it is, the GOP programming.
@@igorwoek502we are not on the side of Russia, we’re just tired of supporting an obviously lost cause when we have our own problems to solve. Not wanting to support Ukraine does not equate to supporting Russia.
Guyana is smart to have all the major powers have roughly equal interest in it's independence. I wonder which party would be the main supporter of Guyana
Monroe Doctrine dictates that the US should, reality will tell however.
They have oil and are in our ballpark. I would not be surprised if one of the carrier fleets found a reason to be in South America soon.
The US should be, but I have my doubts that Republicans wouldn't bend over backwards to fellate Maduro.
They love themselves some strongman dictators.
The US, the West and likely most Latin America will. Given Guyana's reputation as a neutral nation with no disputes to other countries, Guyana is clearly not the aggressor here.
@@davidbowie5023 Yeah. It's illegal land stolen by Brits ;)
Let's goo, Perun covering current affairs in geopolitics has been on my Christmas list
Who, of us, before today, would of thought they'd ever watch a 1+ hour power-point presentation on Venezuelan military readiness ?
As someone who was training to be an intelligence analyst in 2019-2020, and was given Venezuela as a test case to keep track of during one of our semesters, I'm surprised... that it took this long.
Back when things were going off the cliff the first time with Maduro, and the opposition leader seemingly fled the country, and then *came back* a few days later, things were progressing very quickly, and then they slowed to a comparative crawl, channeling true "This is fine" energy for the next 3~4 years.
In 2020, I'd predicted with at least 75% confidence that the pace of events "in the next few months would dictate the pace of the next few years" after his rise to power. Which... Seems to have mostly held true.
Of course, I also wasn't aware of Guyana's oil resources back then either (it was only one semester, I didn't go too deeply into the neighbouring countries) so I didn't see this coming, but given the geopolitical and economic pressures Maduro has to exploit Venezuelan oil, it certainly makes sense.
And, being the self-styled 'strong-man' that he is, I suspect he means to follow through with the threats, even if they are a terrible idea. To not do so would make him appear weak and unreliable, unless he has something else to dangle in front of the media to draw their attention lined up.
Hopefully he's just sabre rattling.
As a Chilean historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
Do you think the U.S. will take advantage of Venezuelan aggression and gain favor with Guyana?
@maulga1559 Absolutely, yes.
The US already have economic ties and military exercises going on so, even if they don't think the threat is credible, it's still an opportunity for them to gain some good graces with Guyana to secure better business / political deals in the future.
But if they *do* think the threats are credible, then all the more reason to show some presence in the region and set boundaries.
In the end, it doesn't matter what Venezuela does; the US has an opportunity to establish itself as a closer ally with an up-and-coming oil-producing nation, which is only one short sea trip away from some of their most-established oil refining port cities.
If they didn't take that deal, I'd be worried something was wrong with the universe.
@@Maulga The US and Guyana already have good relations, and Guyana is one of the Central/South American countries in which, like in Panama, the United States performs "training maneuvers", which is Americanese for " The Green Berets are there."
@@VichikumaLet me guess: Ukraine is Russian huh?
in case anyone else was confused the River class OPV is not the 2002 UK river class OPV its the 1980 UK minesweeper river class converted to a OPV role
As a Chilean historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
@@Vichikuma ok but what boats do they have?
If Venezuela is unable to extract its own oil one may whine about sanctions but at the end of the day that appears to be a skill issue.
I couldn’t drill the oil under my house, I’d always need to leases to a company willing to wast money on exploration and building oil wells.
They need investment, too, but after Chavez stole from foreign investors, even Russia and China don't want to risk their money in the country.
@@tomtom3889 Yes. And if a country of 28 million can't build such a company that says a lot about their political leadership. Unsurprisingly the "leftist" president with single digit approval ratings can only look for outside enemies to blame.
"Skill issue" is the worst take I've ever seen
@@fra604 It's sort of true. PdVSA has massive problems like corruption, underinvestment, and mismanagement.
Massive props to Perun for his insane work ethic. Though i have to say, please take care of yourself, mate! "Australian defense analyst drops dead while editing Powerpoint slides" is not a headline i want to read.
The whole situation goes to show that even if you want to be a peaceful state and stay out of everyone's business, you had best have a good enough military to be a deterrent.
Not having anything worth stealing is a very effective strategy to prevent being robbed.
Sic vis pacem para bellum. The romans had it all down. No better deterrence than actual deterrence.
@@donkeysaurusrex7881the ground you stand on and your own able body can still be stolen from you
Now that Perun has made a PowerPoint presentation about the topic, shit is about to go down
"Never rule out stupid" - Ah yes, the critical error that lead me to say the Russian military would not cross the Ukrainian border in Febuary of 22.
You too? I made that very same prediction literally one day before Putin's Blunder started. Since then I prefer to keep my mouth shut and not taunt Murphy.
@@FrikInCasualMode ah, quiet, a nice choice.
Sometimes fate being a cruel mistress is one of of the reasons we prefer not to play with the fire that surrounds her
Maduro out here speedrunning his Saddam Hussein arc.
@@FrikInCasualMode Same! Also literally one day before! My mind was stuck in the mode of "Nah they won't do that BC it doesn't make military sense" forgetting how often in history people and nations do things that are stupid.
At last someone is clarifying these connections and I can now understand the causes of this conflict.
Thank you for your heroic research and production work during your illness.
Get well soon!
As a Chilean historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
Sunday used to be the day I was looking forward to the NFL football games, but this year, it's been the day I'm excited about the new Perun video.
Wasn't exactly expecting a video about my crazy neighbour. Awesome job as always Perun!
I was meant to go to Guyana for the peace corps in June until an injury stopped me two weeks out. A truly unique country with very little written about it. I hope the best for them and PRAY their government (often formed along ethnic lines) manages to use their new oil money to equitably and sustainably develop their country.
My buddy went to Guyana with the peace corps in June! Sorry to hear you didn’t get to go, small world though, huh?
At the moment I would kindly suggest that you F*K equity and buy stingers, javelins, drones and mortars instead.
New rule to live by: “Never rule out stupid.” Thank you for your fantastic work, Perun!
Given the spirit of the season, I feel that it is my duty to assert my ancestral familial claim to my neighbors tomato patch that my great great grand uncle lost in a hand of poker. My family has unilaterally disowned said uncle and rendered that contract null and void. Illegal foreign actors have until the end of the month before the Apache attack cardinals and armed raccoon divisions roll in to serve as security forces. I caution any international governments to think twice before interfering due to my identity as an unhinged paramilitary sovereign citizen. My crows will be vigilant against any foreign agents attempting to overthrow my unanimous and legal election to presidency.
As a Chilean historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
@@Vichikuma So why won't Maduro just wait for this matter to be settled through the international court?
@@0816M3RC Because nor Venezuela nor Guyana recognize it.
@@Vichikuma Well he has no right to take it by force.
@@Vichikuma As a Chilean Historian it appears what you know about the Russia-Ukrainian conflict can be transcribed on the back of a postage stamp with a childs crayon.....
The same thing once Bolivia's dictator Evo Morales, who is quite close to Putin (though not close enough like Maduro), tried with our country Chile, by demanding the re-annexation of Littoral territory, arguing it was part of Upper Peru during the Spanish Empire, and had several times raised claims and even sought to orchestrate sham referendum. The only difference is we laughed on Bolivia because we are stronger and has a far more competent military; despite this, we still provide Bolivia railways and ports to connect to the poorest nation in South America chance to develop the economy.
I am on the Guyanese side this time around. The border should be respected to what it is.
Boliva could not fight its way out of a wet paper bag they lost their coast in the war of the pacific 1879-1883 and got embarrssed by Paraguay in the chaco war 1932-1935
All true, but that’s the better part of 90 years ago. Things change a lot in that time.
@@Muljinn Thing changed better for Chile but the same for Bolivia. Chile is one of the richer nations in the whole Latin America, but Bolivia stays as one of the poorest nations in the same region. Chile also has more people than Bolivia (20 mil to 10 mil). Bolivia can do nothing.
@@davidbowie5023never underestimate The stupidity of humans😂
@@davidbowie5023Bolivia has around 12-13 mil currently but yeah your right we can’t do anything against any of our neighbors
Seems like Venezuela is "just" posturing, for the domestic audience and possible concession, but if nobody seems to care enough he will properly go for it.
Sometimes though such posturing captures the public imagination. Seeing that 95% of the public support the claim, it's going to be difficult for the gov't to not deliver something. The question is what exactly does the public expect to be delivered?
'You promised us a monster, Dr. Frankenstein. Where it it?'
Sorry to hear about the illness, take good care of yourself, avoid stress and get well soon.
This seems to be, IMHO, more like Saddam Hussein's Special Oil Seizure Operation than Russia's attack on Ukraine. That both imperialist operations resulted in notable failures, copying either one would seem to be very foolish, as stated in the video, and with an extremely low probability of success.
Maduro being a narcissistic political communist rather than a social improvement one suggests that, like others of that ilk [Hitler, Stalin, Saddam, Kim, Putin, etc.] he cares about his personal success first, his crackpot ideology second, the welfare of his supporters and goons third, and the welfare of the majority of his country's population not at all. He's more likely to paint himself orange and kiss up to Putin than to rationally tackle his country's problems. This means that the probability of his actually starting a war is higher than it should be.
Thanks for your predictably brilliant analyses!
8:45 i love how the River is orange. True art.
Thank you so much Perun for what was a thoroughly deep dive into the situation in Guyana. So great to see such analysis on a very current situation. Viva Guyana! Lots of these little problems all over the world where oil and gas is involved. I think such issues include off the coast of West Africa and East Mediterranean.
If the Maduro is interested in the foafo or “fuck around and find out” he’s in one hell of a surprise
Thank you for making it a clear point that these areas have thousands of years of indigenous history, even if said history might not be relevant to the conflict. It's so often forgotten that the Americas had a long and storied history long before any Europeans decided to show up.
You forget that showing up meant that they were not left to the dark ages, Or are you telling us in the jungles of the Americas it was teaming with Pastures, and Graham bells
@@kev897 I mean, there's been research in recent years showing massive settlement ruins hidden under the jungles of the Amazon and the Americas had multiple large centralized societies, some of which built cities bigger than anything Europe had at the time (Tenochtitlan).
It's also interesting that you assume that the native inhabitants of the Americas wouldn't have developed further and reached a level comparable to Europeans if left alone. That's a pretty weird take.....
@@kassthered8452
The fact that when Europe invaded,the natives did not use the wheel or metals is a pretty strong indicator that they will not have advanced on their own.And lets not forget the human sacrifices.
Are you trying to convince us that the genocide of millions of people by Conquerors and the Church was a good thing?@@kev897
@@georgecristiancripcia4819 Civilisations in the Fertile Crescent and India spent millennia without the wheel but at some poinz developed it. Why should the ones in America not eventually do the same? Also, the wheel wasn't as useful on the tight mountain paths of the Andes or in the deep jungle of Yucatan. People invent things for a reason, societal development isn't like a tech tree in a video game
And ah yes, the human sacrifices. A topic which has been blown out of proportion by European invaders looking for a justification to murder the native populations. Same invaders who came from countries where public executions where a regular occurrence.
Latin America is unbelievably fascinating. Of course, nobody cares until literally everyone suddenly cares, but that's sorta just what we gotta put up with😅
Get well soon, no complaines about this video. It was interesting and informative as always. Stellar work, especially under your current circumstances.
"Going to the moon faster than NASA" is now a quote that will live in my head rent free for all time.
😅
Also this quote could be read in two very deifferent ways 🤣
There are two little points I'd like to add to an otherwise excellent analysis:
1. If Russia is your main military ally and you are planning a military campaign of your own, you are shit out of luck, they're busy. Yes, Russia delivered a bunch of shiny equipment to Caracas, but that was years ago. And if you want to see this play out in real time: Armenia had a far stronger military connection to Russia, and the Kremlin effecively left them on 'read' as tanks were rolling through their land - as far as Armenia was concerned, anyway. If Venezuela was planning a major military invasion, then I don't think they can count on Russia to donate huge piles of military equipment again.
2. The varying degrees of escalation for Venezuela you discuss are good points, but that can also work in Guyana's favor. If Maduro declares that the Essequibo oil fields are Venezuelan and ExxonMobil needs to pay Caracas for the rights, I would not at all be surprised that the USS Nimitz and its friends show up in Georgetown because it's been far too long since they sampled the local cuisine _and no other reason._ It goes back to the points you made in your video about aircraft carriers, it's one of the ways in which the US can project power and protect their own interests without ever needing to fire a shot.
As a latin american historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
@@Winellaoose It's a way to stop UA-cam from censoring my comments. If I copy paste the text w/o modifications, it may not publish them. I am chilean, south american and latin american. However, if I were venezuelan it wouldn't change anything. My arguments aren't based on my nationality. Yours? I don't know, I haven't seen them.
@@Vichikuma They're not censored. They're blocked as spam, because you spammed the same wall of text at least 20 times in this comment section. How many rubles do you get paid for this work?
Dude the venezuelan government literally anexed the territory like 3 days after the referéndum.
Nothing has happened.
Mainly because the venezuelan government seems to not have the balls to enforce this "annexation"
So I believe this is all barking after all "the worst case scenario" already happened, and literally nothing happened.
@@Vichikuma by “censoring” you mean recognizing it for the spam it is. Brandolini’s Law makes it easy for you to copypasta that disinfo, and difficult to tackle it. All I’ll say about Russia is it has treated Ukraine in an imperialistic & colonialist manner for generations, it’s interfered with its fledgling democracy for 30 years by having its agents torch polling stations & poisoning pro-EU politicians like Yuschenko. As for Venezuela, VZ accepted the land exchange in 1905, only later declaring it null & void when they believed a Russian adjudicator was bribed by the British (ironic). I hope Maduro makes the mistake of believing the US & UK won’t anchor a strike group off Guyana’s coast to relentlessly pummel every Venezuelan military installation. Maduro’s regime would collapse in a month.
Great video. Frankly, while a lot of people are doing military analysis of this, for most of us non-Chavistas Venezuelans at home or abroad posturing and symbolism is where this is at. The chavistas have many, many defects, but they have a very laser-like focus on keeping power, so doing a lot of noise for internal reasons but absolutely nothing that can endanger said power like, you know, losing a war is what we expect. In fact, some of the things you mention already give us clear indications of this. The bill for the "Organic Law for the Defense of the Guayana Esequiba" has a provision about how anybody that has "publicly favored" the Guyanese position on the Esequibo is going to be barred from running for office. Now, what does that mean? Well, the main (read "real") opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado has publicly said that what Venezuela should do is prepare to defend the case at the ICJ... so she doesnt reject the ICJ jurisdiction, and that is also Guyana's position. Even before that, they already arrested people from her campaign staff on a ridiculous accusation that they were paid money by ExxonMobil to "sabotage the referendum", a.k.a saying dont vote, is a trap.
Meanwhile the creation of the "Guayana Esequiba" state is going on... by centering all activities on Tumeremo, a town some 100 Km from the border. Like, for example, the immediate set up of a SAIME office (well, a trailer) there to give national ID cards to people from the Esequibo region. Office that is now a destination for local Venezuelans trying to get their national id card because the SAIME offices they should go normally, well, you want an ID card, you have to pay a lot, wait a lot (as in days or weeks or months) and probably not get it anyway.
So, again, the correct and entertaining military force analysis is in almost all probability just a theoretical exercise. But well, of course, we cant rule out stupidity... but it would have to be incredibly stupid.
BTW, if you want another piece of data at the intersection of Venezuelan Army readiness and comedy, check the results of the two Venezuelan teams on the Tank Biathlon event of 2022 Russia's Army Games event. TLDR; they ended last, in one team like 12 minutes last, they hit almost no targets and they went off the marked path several times.
Good thing that invading the Esequibo with a tank is impossible, but well, if thats the elite imagine the average.
Meduro does seem like the type to charge his tanks right into the jungle thinking he's Germany through the Ardenne when he's more like Stalin in Finland.
I cannot put into words how excited I get every week when you post a new video.
Russia also has military bases in Venezuela and Putin has also dispatched advisors to devise plan for the conquest of Guyana. It is clear Putin wants Maduro to alleviate for Russia as his three-day war in Ukraine didn't come as predicted.
Yeah, one can see similarities between a possible Russian interest and friendly cooperation of Byelorussia and Venezuela. Like Bylorussia Russia could be suggesting that now is a good time to stir up only an appearance of trouble. No need to actually do anything that would cause sanctions, just start some rumors and move the military around a little bit. The USA isn't happy with the additional pressure of potential hotspot outbreaks, but what does Russia care about that?
Very Cold war mentality.
Sources, please?
Yeah, Putin is really keen to send his ships, planes and "mercenaries" to the other side of the world at the moment. He is also no doubt keen to sell all his surplus guns and ammo to a country currently experiencing hyperinflation and so with no means of paying for them. After all it is not as though he currently has any other use for them. Plus he is no doubt keen to provoke the Americans so much that not even Trump would stand for it.
Sheesh.
If I were the Guyanan government, I would be seeking a mutual defence treaty with the USA and going shopping for weapons and military expertise.
PERUN...You are a Genius!You have the High Level Niveau of Think Tank Military Advisor.If i Had a high risk PMC you are my Comrade!Grade A++
Damn. Get well soon mate, 8th wave is supposedly better than the last few waves but still I'm sure no fun. And thanks for covering this: your videos have turned into my go-to for a comprehensive analysis and run-down on current geopolitical events, and this one was no exception.
Has anyone explained to Venezuela that Guiana is a member of the commonwealth? Ask Argentina about how well their "SMO" went.
Unfortunately, not an apt comparison. The Falklands are an actual British territory, so they were defending their own turf.
The Commonwealth isn’t a military alliance, just a cultural and (marginally) economic group. Some of the members might send aid/money, but direct military intervention is… highly unlikely.
Direct military involvement in this case is pretty likely, and commonwealth nations would claim the fact that Guyana is a commonwealth nation as a reason (the true reason being oil, of course).
Conspicuously missing from the list of top corporate investors in Guiana was British Petroleum.
Following the above comment...I hope the new president of Argentina takes note of what is happening.
He has openly stated that he wants the Falklands "back"...though they never were Argentinian.
Similar ploy by Galteri when his popularity fell....cost the lives of many and with a negative result.
@@Muljinn I suspect that the USA might park a carrier battle group off the coast if Venezuela starts moving troops.
Amazing video as always! I hope you feel better soon. Thank you and the team for all the hard work!
I always appreciate you, a dedicated and Outstanding knowledgeable person, a teacher or a lecturer because I know and understand how worse and destructive is ignorance. Greeting you from Kampala🇺🇬 Many thanks, to Sunday Perun Power Points.
US Special Forces are in Guyana. The Guyana is a Commonwealth country and the UK said is will support Guyana. You know the chinese have their hand on this because they want access to the oil reserves in Guyana.
If they wanted oil then they could just help Venezuela rebuild its oil industry. Venezuela has been a massive old exporter for 70 years and collapsed only after idiotic government policies.
China knows that Venezuela doesn't have the money, expertise, or technology to get oil from the sea floor. You also won't find foreign companies using that technology in Venezuela because Chavez stole all the foreign investments from oil companies in the 2000s.
@@maxpower3990but Venezuelan oil is extremely low quality. Difficult and expensive to process.
Advisory/training engagement at that level by SF teams doesn't mean a defense treaty commitment. It means 'we'd like to establish some links, build some local relationships, and help make your troops a bit more professional'. It does not mean "we'll fight your war for you". Same goes for naval visits, etc.
Fun Fact: Venezuela entered an agreement to sell oil cheaply to China. What did the Chinese do? They re-sold all that oil to the U.S., because the U.S. has the only refineries in the world that can handle Venezuela's ultra-low quality crude.
Thank you for covering this story, it's not one I know much about. I hope you feel better soon!
Sorry to hear you're under the weather. Thank you for pushing through to provide another excellent video. Make sure you're taking care of yourself, friend.
If Maduro wants a war, he will probably cause a lot of headaches for himself. The US would almost certainly intervene - with its airforce alone, it could almost certainly massively disrupt Venezuelan military operations. And almost every other state in South America would not help Maduro - Russia might protest, but few would join them. China wouldn’t side with Venezuela due to China’s long-term stance of opposing the redrawing of national borders (except in the case of Taiwan which they’ve always considered their own).
If Venezuela tries to take Guyana, it will have to do so alone, and if it meets fierce US intervention (which it almost certainly will), the cavalry will not arrive. Also, with evidence of how badly corruption has hollowed out armies such as the Russian one, I shudder to think how badly the Venezuelan one will perform with its even more dismal pay, maintenance, resources and training.
Having said that, Venezuela might still win due to sheer numbers and the fact that their neighbour is very, very small - if it is left alone. But with so much oil, Uncle Sam isn’t going to let Guyana wage this war alone - that I can guarantee
I can't tell how big of a deal this situation is. It's buried in the news, but seems like it would be a big deal if this war started.
I feel the US navy should take an extended shoreleave for a carrier group at the fine ports of Guyana
This may be the only job that America's Little Crappy Ships are equipped to handle.
Those little ships have enough firepower to make clear that any escalation very unlikely
@@r2hildur Are you a LCS contractor? 🤣🤣🤣
I mean you build really sturdy, reliable, and well-rounded ships!
🤣🤣🤣Sorry, I just can't 🤣🤣🤣
@@Rob_F8F
LOL, US DOMINATES the sea.
Try something. Japan and Germany learned it the hard way why US should not be messed with.
@@Rob_F8FThey could probably serve sufficiently well as blockships. Bonus: No repair costs.
I held a referendum in my household, and by unanimous decision I have voted to incorporate the Perun youtube channel into my assets.
Yes, that's all my questions thoroughly answered.Yet again, a brilliant and clear explanation, so thank you Perun, and I hope you win your battle with coronavirus.
My experience with COVID is that rest is the most critical thing. PLEASE REST!
As always, top quality video.
BTW my wife and I were in Venezuela in 1995. We tried to describe where we had gone in Guyana. They couldn't understand. Then I would say "Zonas disputado" or something like that as that was how it was on the maps. They ALL understood.
You mention Russia being a member of OPEC at multiple points, which it isn't. And is in fact notoriously a thorn in the cartel's side, consistently trying to benefit from the cartel decreasing their supply quotas while not limiting their own exports.
It is a member of OPEC Plus, but that is a much less rigid structure than the real deal and usually relies on separate case by case deals when some collective action happens. Any Russian participation in oil supply restrictions tends to involve the Saudis coming over to Moscow to convince Putin. And then inevitably falls apart as Russia doesn't restrict the extraction as much as it promises to.
Thus reinforcing the argument that any promise/treaty with the Russian government isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.
I was entirely unaware of this flashpoint until this video--thanks for bringing attention to it, Perun!
Thank you Perun for the information not offered on other platforms, tailored to engage those with no military experience.
Get well soon Perun, Just focus on getting better. We can wait for your next vid.
Wait it goes from Essequibo to Essequiba if Venezuela takes over? So Venezuela is trying to trans Essequibo against its will?
How cool that you pick such an unexpected topic. Love it!
I really appreciate the coverage of this!
A product of the Spanish-Dutch conflict in the 16-19th centuries. The Dutch had colonised the territory belong to Guyana today, but Spain refuted Dutch attempt to colonise west of Esequibo river and had fought numerous wars there. However, the Dutch were able to rally indigenous allies and thus Spain failed to conquer the territory. However, Spain never abandoned the claim and had demanded the Netherlands to respect the Esequibo border, something the Netherlands had never abided. The Dutch sold the Guyanese colony to Britain in 1800s in exchange for a more peaceful eastern Guyana (now Suriname), and the British used past Dutch maps to design the border. So the British designed the border but it was the Dutch who planted the seeds on it. No wonder why Venezuelan regime sought a Crimea or Donetsk/Luhansk-style solution.
Your summary, is an excellent defense of Guyana. All the facts you mention support Guyana, not Venezuela. Claiming something, does not confer possession, or title. Possession, long uninterrupted possession supports Guyana.
As a Chilean historian, lately I have been truly surprised by the level of misinformation that prevails in the English-speaking media and social networks, especially regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that of Palestine and lately this one.
First of all, everyone has to understand the following: currently, as far as international law is concerned, the Essequibo region is a disputed territory pending adjudication. IT IS NOT FROM GUYANA. The 1966 Geneva Agreement establishes this.
Secondly, the current crisis has not been caused by Venezuela or Maduro, but by the violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement by Guyana, by granting rights to exploit the oil found in 2015 in the disputed territorial sea to ExxonMobil, when in the preamble of that Agreement establishes that any controversy on the matter must be resolved in a manner acceptable to both parties, and Venezuela opposes Exxon's actions in the area. Still, Guyana proceeded to give mining permits to Exxon anyway. That preamble, by the way, is the reason why, until before the arrival of Exxon, the riches and the Essequibo in general had remained without much activity, since both parties have not agreed on what to do there and, therefore, in compliance with the Agreement, not much, or anything, had been done then. In some videos in English, it is said that the lack of development in the area has been a defensive strategy by Guyana, so that if Venezuela invades it will have to cross a wild jungle. A complete and utter lie.
Third, the posthumous letter of the American lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost, who participated in the 1899 Paris Award, published in 1944, describes what that process was like from the inside. The corrupt, curiously, were not the Americans (neither the 2 judges nor the 5 lawyers from that country), but the 2 British judges and 5 lawyers, and above all, the Russian president of the court, who was a professor at the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh. But even before that, it should be said that at first the United Kingdom did not want to go to arbitration, and the United States forced them by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. The British then accepted but under the condition that Venezuela would not represent itself, because the United Kingdom would not deal with Venezuelans directly, as it considered them "inferior." This fact makes the Paris Award not only a fraudulent document but also evidence of the deep Anglo racism of the time. Going to the fraud within the Award, first say that the court had 3 months to resolve and did so in only 6 days. Mallet-Prevost details what the hell happened: the Russian president of the court was on the British side. He considered that the Russian and British Empires had the mission of civilizing the world, full of "barbarians", among them, the Venezuelans. This is the time of the "Great Game" between both empires, in which Central Asia was disputed. Furthermore, the British told the Americans that the Russian judge wanted this Award to be the first in history to be decided unanimously, in order to gain personal prestige. The British proposal for this unanimity was then to give the entire Essequibo region to the United Kingdom. If the American judges were against it, then the British and the Russian would even vote in favor of giving the UK the mouth of the Orinoco, winning 3 to 2 in court. The Americans then accepted the first alternative, which caused Venezuela to lose less territory. Thanks to Mallet-Prevost's posthumous letter, published in 1944, the Geneva Agreement of 1966 took place, in which the United Kingdom recognized the nullity of the Paris Award. The Agreement implicitly annuls it, recognizing its corrupt nature. The document then outlines the steps to resolve the issue that it recognizes as open and disputed. However, since then Guyana has been mainly responsible for the failure of these steps to bear fruit, because in reality what it seeks is to once again recognize the result of the Paris Award.
Finally, as I said above, the current crisis has been generated by Guyana, by violating the preamble of the Agreement. But it did it because Guyana in recent years has been completely bought by ExxonMobil, from politicians to cricket teams and environmentalists. This can be seen in Jake Tran's video “How Exxon stole a third world country (Documentary)” here on UA-cam. For Exxon, which has a CEO (Darren Woods) who makes $20 billion a year, buying all of Guyana was a bargain.
El Esequibo es de Venezuela.
@@Vichikuma Don't worry your little head about what people from the English-speaking world might opine or think vis a vis conflicts that do not concern you overmuch. We don't really care. We support Guyana in this transparent effort by the Maduro Frito dictatorship to deflect attention from the very real socioeconomic basket case that is Venezuela by presenting facts as they appear to us. We have refrained from personal attacks, but since you insist.
The Essequibo region is indeed a disputed territory, one that already has been adjudicated to the United Kingdom in the Paris award of 1899. The United Kingdom already possessed title of Essequibo through deed of sale from 1814 from the then Dutch Republic. The 1899 arbitration award was simply ratification of both possession and title.
“It is not from Guyana” means nothing in English. It is in fact meaningless as written and within the context you placed it in. It is a direct translation from Spanish “no es de Guyana”. Unfortunately, for you that is, it demonstrates a poor command of English. I have duly corrected your mistake, inserting the correct phrase which would be it “does not belong to Guyana”. The meaning it is not from Guyana would be akin to saying in Spanish “no es de alli”.
Re The Geneva Agreement…. It does no such thing. The document itself, is only four pages long comprised of 8 articles. The agreement at no point grants to Venezuela recognition that the 1899 Paris arbitration is null and void.
Here is article I which I have reproduced in its entirety
“A Mixed Commission shall be established with the task of seeking satisfactory solutions for the practical settlement of the controversy between Venezuela and the United Kingdom which has arisen as the result of the Venezuelan contention that the Arbitral Award of 1899 a about the frontier between British Guiana and Venezuela is null and void.”
It simply states that it has come to the attention of the United Kingdom as the party invested with British Guiana, the soon to be independent nation of Guyana, that Venezuela alleges that the Paris award of 1899 is null and void. The key word is contention, which means an allegation, an accusation, a belief, it does not imply in any way, shape or form acceptance of the same.
Re Not created by Venezuela. Virtually the entire world, most of Venezuela’s neighbors understand it to be so, except those blinded by reflexive ideological or sectarian grounds.
Re Guyana granting rights….. You are mistaken. Nowhere in the document does it expressly deny or prohibit either explicitly or implicitly Guyana from activities that are within the normal scope of a nation administering its territory. That is to say building roads, schools, custom houses, government offices, tourist facilities, bridges, airports, restrict economic activity as in oil exploration, the construction of oil wells, etc, etc, etc. Absolutely nothing. The pertinent section is contained in article V. Which I reproduce below.
By engaging in activities within the normal scope of a nation administering its territory Guyana has neither renounced or diminished its claim to the territory disputed by Venezuela. The first proviso of the aforementioned article clearly states that nothing contained therein meaning the Agreement can be interpreted to favor the right or diminution of the same of one over the other. Therefore, Guyana as the party in possession of Essequibo has the right to maintain, improve and develop its territory as it sees fit. Guyana has neither made a new claim, nor enlarged an existing claim. It is administering its territory as any nation would and should. In order to interpret Guyana’s efforts and actions in improving the living conditions, prosperity of its inhabitants there would have to be an explicit denial or prohibition in the wording of the Agreement that would specify what activities or actions would be a basis for asserting or denying a claim. The Geneva Agreement does not grant to Venezuela the right to interfere in Guyana in the legitimate administration, development, improvement of the territory that it deems its own. It can build an airport, pave a road, build a government office, offer mining concessions, oil concessions, etc It can do whatever it wants to develop and improve the lives of its people. In the same manner that the Geneva Agreement would not grant to Guyana the right to interfere, involve or deny Venezuela’s right to develop and improve the land awarded to Venezuela in the aforementioned 1899 Paris award. Venezuela was awarded roughly 5% of the disputed territories. Unlike Venezuela which claims and disputes the territories awarded to Guyana, Guyana has not encumbered, held under scrutiny or otherwise disputed the territories awarded to Venezuela.
“(1) In order to facilitate the greatest possible measure of cooperation and mutual understanding, nothing contained in this Agreement shall be interpreted as a renunciation or diminution by the United Kingdom, British Guiana or Venezuela of any basis of claim to territorial sovereignty in the territories of Venezuela or British Guiana, or of any previously asserted rights of or claims to such territorial sovereignty, or as prejudicing their position as regards their recognition or non-recognition of a right of, claim or basis of claim by any of them to such territorial sovereignty.
(2) No acts or activities taking place while this Agreement is in force shall constitute a basis for asserting, supporting or denying a claim to territorial sovereignty in the territories of Venezuela or British Guiana or create any rights of sovereignty in those territories, except in so far as such acts or activities result from any agreement reached by the Mixed Commission and accepted in writing by the Government of Guyana and the Government of Venezuela. No new claim, or enlargement of an existing claim, to territorial sovereignty in those territories shall be asserted while this Agreement is in force, nor shall any claim whatsoever be asserted otherwise than in the Mixed Commission while that Commission is in being.”
Re The Preamble. Venezuela has repeatedly failed to fulfill the letter and the spirit of the preamble, as Venezuela claims the entire portion of the territories awarded to Guyana, whilst Guyana does not claim the portion of the territories awarded to Venezuela. Venezuela and Guyana have spent years without arriving at a mutually agreed solution simply because Venezuela wants the entire Essequibo in Guyana’s possession, something that Guyana does not agree with as it feels that Venezuela is bound by the 1899 Paris award. In addition it has been mostly due to Venezuela’s intransigence in accepting arbitration as stipulated in Article IV that has frustrated any attempt to come to a solution. It has been Venezuela which has repeatedly denied international arbitration from the 1970’s to the present, consistently denying the competency of the International Court of Justice to rule on the dispute between the two countries. A point that was resolved when the International Court of Justice ruled in 2020 that it did indeed have the competency to adjudicate the matter.
Re preamble…without much activity…
That is simply not the case. Guyana until recently was amongst the poorest nations of the Western Hemisphere both in development, infrastructure, poverty, with an extremely small population in relation to its relatively large size. To this day, the overwhelming part of Guyana is ill served by roads, bridges, airports, bereft of large-scale infrastructure. It had neither the means nor the resources to develop, improve the living conditions of its people in and around the vicinity of its capital Georgetown, let alone areas of trackless, road less jungle. Nothing in the Geneva Agreement requires Guyana to remain poor or underdeveloped. As the Geneva Agreement keeps the status quo between the two parties as they existed before. It does not prevent Guyana from developing any part of its territory, nor does it give Venezuela to choose for, or determine for Guyana what activities, acts that it should or should not be engaged in. Guyana and British Guiana before it, were always endowed with possession and title over the Essequibo, Guyana from inception and British Guiana from deed of purchase in 1814 ratified and finalized by the 1899 Paris Award which did not substantially alter the reality on the ground, insofar it confirmed the lions share of the disputed territory in the hands of the nation that had possession of it.
Re Venezuelan invasion…. I do not pretend to know the inner workings of the Venezuelan armed forces. The Essequibo remains to this day an essentially densely forested trackless jungle. Most of the activity that has immeasurably improved the lives of the people of Guyana has occurred offshore. Within a short number of years, the per capita income of Guyana has grown by leaps and bounds. It is projected to be over $18000 in the present year of 2023 over six times higher than Venezuela, in the vicinity if somewhat higher than that of Chile.
The allegations made by a long dead American Jurist are just that. To label the proceedings corrupt without the subsequent determination by a duly constituted panel or council is to project rather than to verify or establish the veracity of the allegations. To place the proverbial horse before the carriage.
Despite the reflexive anti-American rhetoric posted by most if not all Venezuelans on this topic, you are correct to note that were it not for American pressure, involvement, there would have never been a Paris Arbitration. The United Kingdom felt it had no need to humor a conflicted, weak, divided nation in regards to a territory it had possessed prior to the independence of that nation. Not dissimilar to what Russia has been doing in Ukraine, except with missiles and bombs. However, I digress.
Re inferior. That is an inference. What is true is that Venezuela broke relations with the United Kingdom in 1887 so did not have legal standing or at the very least the UK considered it so, to preside in a tribunal with two jurists of the very same nation ie the United Kingdom that it broke relations with. Ergo it could not very well appear in a deliberative body with citizens of the nation that Venezuela broke relations with in the first place. So much Venezuela bile has been cast at the Russian Judge Friedrich Martins, who in fact was selected by the Venezuelan government from a pool of jurists. The irony!
Re The award process itself. I have placed a summary of the deliberations wherein I noted the facts as publicly known in somewhat the same manner as you did. However I did not politicize it, textualize it, as you were not there, nor have access to supportive documents. As I have pointed out to other posters, were it not for the two American jurists, the United Kingdom would have been awarded the entirety of the disputed territories. For that Venezuela should be grateful that Venezuela got to keep at the very least the mouth of the Orinoco delta.
The problem has always been for Venezuela is that it has never possessed, administered, peopled, managed or regulated the Essequibo, neither did Spain for that matter, not that it makes an iota of difference insofar they are different entities. The principle of uit posseditus juris is just that, a general guiding unenforceable principle that virtually not a single nation in the Western followed in its entirety.
The Mallet-Prevost letter is one of the reasons Venezuela chose to abrogate a ruling that it bound itself to. A unilateral decision that was neither recognized or accepted by either the United Kingdom or Guyana.
Once again, I hate to belabor this point, the United Kingdom at no point recognized the 1899 as being null and void. That is simply untrue.
Re Agreement…implicity…corrupt nature…. The wording in fact, is exactly the opposite. Per Article 1
“A Mixed Commission shall be established with the task of seeking satisfactory solutions for the practical settlement of the controversy between Venezuela and the United Kingdom which has arisen as the result of the Venezuelan contention that the Arbitral Award of 1899 about the frontier between British Guiana and Venezuela is null and void.”
The key words “Venezuelan contention”. That does not mean acceptance. There is no reasonable or ethical way to read it so, or understand it to mean acceptance. Once again, contention means allegation, belief, accusation, assertion with differing levels of accuracy, there might even be many other employable terms, acceptance however, is not one of them.
Re Agreement implicitly annuls it….. It in fact does the exact opposite. Nor can it be more clear in implicitly stating that "nothing… interpreted… renunciation….B G…claim." It is right there plain as sight. Article V preserves the right of the United Kingdom, British Guiana to consider the 1899 award as binding. In the same manner as it preserves the right of Venezuela to consider the 1899 award null and void. It does not confer validity or merit to either side. It is simply an agreement that states that Venezuela contends that the 1899 award is null and void, delineates and specifies the method of coming to a resolution, absent that, at proviso that the United Nations will decide in which form and forum the matter is to be adjudicated in binding arbitration. Nothing more, nothing less.
Partial reproduction of the pertinent article
"nothing contained in this Agreement shall be interpreted as a renunciation or diminution by the United Kingdom, British Guiana or Venezuela of any basis of claim to territorial sovereignty in the territories of Venezuela or British Guiana, or of any previously asserted rights of or claims to such territorial sovereignty, or as prejudicing their position as regards their recognition or non-recognition of a right of, claim or basis of claim by any of them to such territorial sovereignty."
Maduro as dictator of Venezuela is entirely responsible for this manufactured crisis, that has no other aim than to deflect from his disastrous leadership, if you can call it that, of Venezuela. A country that has become a laughingstock, one that has become a byword for futility, stagnation, despair, mismanagement and incompetence, for reducing the people of Venezuela to poverty. That the nation with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, could and can barely pump a third of its pre Maduro output. Has had 30000% inflation and higher. A failed nation that does not produce anything, make anything except economic and political emigrants. One that cannot feed and maintain its people in the manner they were accustomed to prior to the abyss. He and to a lesser extent his dictatorial predecessor Chavez is the direct cause of the exit of close to eight million of her citizens to other countries, including irony of ironies, to the Great Boogy man of the Chavista dictatorship the United States. The humiliation!
How is it, that a citizen of a nation that has conquered territories from at least two nations, seized lands at the very tip of the Continent, annexed a South Pacific Polynesian Island without any historical connection to itself (the main argument used by Venezuela) should take the cudgels against a small, underpopulated, peaceful nation that has finally achieved a modicum of prosperity that its people so richly deserve.
Apparently in some parts of the world reflexive ideology is more important than truth and justice.
Just for a quick context that didn't ring out quite as much as it should have: Guyana is a country that is about the size of France with a population of about half that of Estonia. And the area in question is 2/3 of the area containing less than a quarter of the population. So it has a population density roughly comparable to Alaska.
77.5k views 5 hours after release and only 6.5k upvotes. As a creator, this lack of engagement (that takes almost no effort or time) must be maddening and disappointing. Especially given the research and time that must go into these excellent and informative videos.
Given that people usually like at the end of the video, liking this one in general takes 1h.
Cheers mate, your opinion is always valuable and your videos remain well researched,, comprehensive resources.
Another Sunday another banger. Thanks for your hard work Perun! Makes my week better every time
That border was established 100 years ago and only after large oil reserves are discovered, Venezuela tries to assert control over that area? Can you get more obvious? Is there some international law that I am unaware of that says you can seize your neighbor's territory by public referendum?
i think its more of a russian law...
@@0topon - Yeah, Putin didn't even feel the need to put it to a vote.
Venezuela has claimed the territory for about 50 years or more, it is not something recent.
@@rafaelgomezestevez4217 - One of hundreds of border disputes around the world, I guess.
Thank you for another amazing update, Perun!
Thanks. I wanted to hear about this, very good analysis as usually