What is hybrid warfare? - Kilcullen's theory about liminal maneuver
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- Опубліковано 26 чер 2024
- I look at hybrid warfare and explain why some people believe it is just a fancy buzz word. David Kilcullen's theory about liminal maneuver is a good tool to make it more practical.
0:00 Intro
0:39 What is hybrid warfare?
2:01 Not only about Russia
2:26 Just a buzz word?
4:45 Kilcullen's theory about liminal maneuver
5:22 The three thresholds
7:02 The temporal dimension to liminal maneuver
8:57 The liminal zone
9:23 The thresholds are not static
10:36 Five processes in responding to hybrid attack
David Kilcullen's article "The Evolution of Unconventional Warfare" in Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies: sjms.nu/articles/10.31374/sjm...
Thanks, Anders, for putting a complex subject into a coherent framework. You should be lecturing this for newspapers, journalists, politicians, and some Scandinavian TV channels. I'm glad I found this channel. It adds a lot of sense when we live in these challenging times. Cheers.
This man is Gifted! An uncanny ability to explain complex concepts so the underlying principles are clearly understood by just about any viewer. Definitely more. Thank you Anders!
Great content, I'm now a subscriber. Being Swedish I like the Scandinavian perspective of the channel.
Fascinating and extremely eloquent. More please
Sir
Just continue. You are excellent
Great video on the topic.
And good job with the new setup/graphic. Makes the whole experience feel more professional.
Thanks. I'm glad you like it. 😊
Very useful indeed! I've listened to countless experts lately about the current new cold war and yours are by far most to the point and without any of the "mystic Russia" nonsense.
Good clear explanation, thanks!
Great content, you are a talented teacher, much obliged.
This liminal theory reminds me of Knowledge Acquisition Theory. One becomes aware there might be something to know, one inquires until one knows there is something to know but doesn't know what it is. This enquiry also shapes the thing to be known.
Known things are interacted with the unknown, how are the known things effected? The choice of known things for interaction shapes the unknown.
Partial ideas for what the unknown thing is emerge. One tests these ideas for what the thing is, this produces more ideas for the thing. Repeat until one thinks one can place the thing in the known category.
Keep the phenomenon in the known category until an exception occurs, the black swan.
This is why we have a conformational bias. This is conformational reasoning as compared to disconfirming reasoning. Disconfirming reasoning can occur in the enquiry stage but to place a phenomenon in the known category is conformational until it is disconfirmed. This is true because human experience is finite, not all possible combinations of interaction can be experienced.
Tack för en mycket intressant kanal.
The mythical Trojan Horse is liminal or hybrid warfare from 28 centuries ago! Or Caesar and the Helvetii situation at the beginning of the Gallic wars is also an example from 21 centuries ago!
It's only a spontaneous reaction without much analysis but, being an Ancient History geek, I will try and rethink some of the episodes of this part of History with this very interesting analysis tool!
Very informative and straightforward. A++ content right here.
Your intelligence and objectivity is admirable, Thank you for these videos!
Excellent video. Thanks
Just come to this after watching Perun's piece on Turkey, and it has greatly increased my understanding and appreciation of the wide-ranging and interconnected parts of the puzzle in the current conflict. Thank you so much for taking the time to explain technical military/political stuff to us, the general populace.
Love from Venezuela, you are the best!
Russia has been quietly taking over the coastline of the Black Sea since 1998. The reasons for this are to gain control over the sea lanes, but also gain control of the minerals on the sea bed and mine them. These are rare minerals used for electrical storage which will be necessary when Europe has no use for Russia's export of gas and oil. It is also quietly establishing bases for when the Arctic sea-ways and the back door to China become available.
*How the US developed 'hybrid warfare' to control the world*
ua-cam.com/video/cHflXcHU7ok/v-deo.htmlsi=mHfX5Rc9ZcPuXsoW
Short video about pipeline "accident" in the context of hybrid warfare?
It happened, check the recent uploads for the channel! He even linked back to this older video.
@@Anolaana I saw it!
Very informative, and a topic very relevant these days. I even see Prigozhin's trolls have found their way here so we can experience the concept first hand.
I think it's realistic to think that we are moving into a new stage in history and new ways of waging war will develop. Think about how democracy changed warfare and Napoleon was able to take advantage of a simple change of politics. The Civil War through the world wars was a time of bringing in new technologies and learning how to use it. The has not been a major war that has used the new weapons and other technologies. We also have had th3 governments and trade and tqx structures set up after the last major wars mature and begin to shoq stress and falt lines that open new ways of control of the the combatants. We should expect changes in how wars arw fought.
Denne kanal og Perun's synes jeg giver den mest sobre dækning af krigen i Ukraine. Se også DasPanzernuseum 's Ukraine-Special2
I 100% agree.
DasPanzermuseum Ukraine-Special 2: Panzereinsatz nach sowjetischer Doktrin? - Thanks for the recommendation.
Could you please include a comment on what "liminal" means. It seems to be the central element of your discussion, but I am not sure what exactly you are talking about. Does "liminal" mean "secret " or "hidden" in general, or are there other aspects or conditions that are also implied by that word.
Only as I am writing this did I think of the word "subliminal", but even then it's a word that gets casually used, so I might be missing some technical point of your argument.
Just a few seconds after I paused the video to write the above comment, he does explain what he means by "liminal".
@@edwardblair4096 He's a very gifted lecturer. And, FYI, I think even now, you can press the three dots to the right - and either delete or edit any comment you post.
Just so others that might not know, would see this, I will leave a message: "Liminal" means, steps or thresholds (so door step would be called limines - or some variation of that word in Latin) or boundary. Subliminal means below the threshold of what you perceive consciously. But in case of liminal warfare it talks about the aspects of what is now known as Hybrid Warfare not from the perspective of Hybridizing tools used to accomplish maneuver, but in terms of military/political thresholds that an opponent (usually a country) has. You design operation to fit in between specific thresholds and if it is successful in keeping within those thresholds for long enough time, you achieve some additional goals beyond what similar maneuver that would be done with traditional military force, could achieve.
*David Kilcullen's article* (link in the description section below the video) also talks about Liminal warfare, ab out 3/4 down. I recommend reading it, it is very informative.
- - - - - - - - - -
*"Subliminal"* - small story (unconnected).
Since the late 80's I was fan of Dansih rock band "D.A.D" formerly known as "Disneyland After Dark" - until they in autumn 1989 got legal issues with the Walt Disney company and had to change their name.
A couple of months later, so their name now being D.A.D, I watched their 3rd concert after a USA tour and got hold on a very special T-shirt they had been giving away to the press and such during the USA tour.
It was plain olive/ military green except a small sentense in yellow: _"Subliminal message."_ Until you started washing the T-shirt more and more, driving colour out of the cloth but not of the print in exactly the same as the original colour, thus revealing this old now "illegal" name _"Disneyland After Dark."_ I only very carefully washed that T-shirt three times ever.
As they had only produced 100 of these T-shirts, gave the very most of them away on the USA tour (I guess most are lost by now), only very few even reached Europe and maybe four (of which my brother and I had two) reached Denmark, I think that T-shirt of mine must be quite rare by now.
The fact that Russia has not been able to call out Western HW means they do not really expect an attack by NATO. HW by nature is an offensive tactic. It also reveals the scale of Russian objectives.
eres el mejor te quiero mi calvito
God gennemgang :)
Anders, we had issues with the eu long before brexit. Cameron just gave us the chance to vote about it...
Thats clear - I think his point is that foreign activities to influence the eesult, is an example of hybrid warfareIt ItIS known that the russians did so in the US-presidential election, In the Brexit, and also other elections. It is part of their way to weaken the West.
Even the wiki article is clear that the alleged interference has had no direct evidence to support the notion.
This from the "Russia Report" from the ISC. "...stated that no government ministry took significant interest or specific responsibility in investigation, and that the British intelligence community believed election integrity was not a major focus."
also: "The report describes the United Kingdom as one of Russia's "top targets" and said it is "seen as central to the Western anti-Russian lobby"."
In other words we are a target because we are seen as a threat to their campaign. Good. Perhaps they don't bother with other European nations because it isn't necessary.
"A working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research claims the influence of Twitter bots may have been significant enough to impact the result, roughly calculating that automated accounts may have ultimately been responsible for around 1.76 percentage points of the 'Leave' vote share."
This is an American body, there's no justification given for this number.
Perhaps we should take a moment to recall the grotesque propaganda of the Remain campaign. The Nissan senior executive dragooned in to threaten the inevitable shutting down of the Sunderland plant springs to mind. Over two billion pounds invested since then, and still counting.
Asymmetrical warfare usually references the non lethal measures.
No asymmetric warfare, that's guerrilla/insurgent warfare against conventional armies.
Why has everybody settled into this explaination for “Hybrid” warfare? Everybody is discussion “Grey-zone” warfare and confusing it with Hybrid.
A sudden thought came to me the other day:
Is Brexit a Russian success in hybride warfare? Russia had clearly a great interest in Britain out of EU - if possibly also out of NATO.
If that is so one must say that it is a first-rate succes. And clear enough a victory that putin is unable to brag about - which (as far as I understand the first 'lesson') is what it is all abiut.
*How the US developed 'hybrid warfare' to control the world*
ua-cam.com/video/cHflXcHU7ok/v-deo.htmlsi=mHfX5Rc9ZcPuXsoW
Ok, russia this, russia that, what about all the crap the US has been doing with the color revolutions, south and central americas, middle east, that doesn't qualify?
What-aboutism ...what does it change?
I was wondering the same thing ! It’s as if hybrid warfare is synonymous with Russia or the Soviet Union. USA is very much involved in it as well but not a single example was given.
He did explain it quite well though but the beginning was a bit biased. I mean blaming Russia for Brexit?!
Change Russia with USA or Britain and we get a few hundred years of history explained. Sooo, who should we beleive.
Do the British blame brexit on the Russian? 🤣🤣🤣
The Russians meddled, but most of us don't consider it an important factor.
@@johnridout6540 The difference between ideas was so smalll that I think the russians trolls won this battle. That is the power of the actual media. You can be very selective of yours propaganda's target.
@@xpainx5185 We'd already had years of anti EU propaganda from a large part of our press.
After Obama's "back of the queue" comment it was clear than anyone who could meddle would, doesn't invalidate anyone's vote though.
You discredit your analysis with the "blame everything on the Russians" mantra. The British working class were totally pissed off with the EU, and thankfully they hold a majority in UK relative those self-interested in remaining - mostly metropolitan service industry types.
"Henry" how are things in St Petersburg or wherever the troll farms are today?
@@clausbecker9350 Fine thanks - look me up on LinkedIn ;)
Why would the working class be pissed off with EU?
You're reading things into the video he doesn't say.
In fact, consider this: UK media and people having anti-EU sentiments makes it a good target for Russia. This doesn't mean everything is fabricated nor that people and organisations involved are all working with (or pro-)Russia.
Why might Russia want to do this? It weakens the UK (I'm aware some might argue otherwise, but it's what I think). It weakens the EU. It diminishes relations between the two. This might not directly lead to a concrete gain for Russia but enough of these things might lead to opportunities they otherwise might not have had.
But I'm not an expert on this, so.. what do I know, anyway.
You are correct Henry. The disinformation campaign by Russia is not about them influencing elections. It's that they spread the idea that they can influence elections, therefore the elections are not valid. Those on the losing side of an election, amplify the idea, because it's easier to say "Russian disinformation has brainwashed voters", than accept that the majority of the population doesn't share their belief, and change their policy. They then use "Russian disinformation" as a label for opposing voices, and ask the social media platforms to censor these views. This ultimately does a lot more damage to democracy than a few troll farms.
Boring