Lok Sabha 2024 Prediction By Yashwant Deshmukh, C-Voter | Vikram Chandra | The India Story
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- Опубліковано 21 тра 2024
- The countdown to June 4 has begun: not only India, but the rest of the world is also awaiting the results of the biggest democratic exercise on the planet. Five phases of Lok Sabha elections 2024 have concluded, and we are less than 72 hours away from the sixth phase. Where do the elections stand now, with India just two weeks away from the big verdict? What could the next two phases have in store? On ‘The India Story: Road To 2024’, editorji’s Vikram Chandra caught up with one of India’s top psephologists, Yashwant Deshmukh of C-Voter, to discuss these questions.
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It is the same Yashwant Deshmukh, same C Voter Survey, which gave Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh to Congress very recently and even giving advantage in Rajasthan !
Most of his Surveys try to report against BJP and in favour of Congress !
PK does the opposite. It's all very entertaining.
If U say bjp is winning that is not sensation,say bjp loosing it becomes a breaking news, moreover vikram is an anti bjp journalist he favour something which gives him happiness. Desmukh has to be care about it.
Nobody takes him seriously. He just pushes the agenda of the opposition. He .very cunningly avoids giving clear cut analysis, so that he can deny later on.
Mr Vikram looks very depressed after hearing Mr Desmukh 😂 One can very well understand why. 😂
Nobody talking about women voter. Yashwant sir knows where BJP losing? But where gaining he doesn't know😅 In bengal BJP gaining or no?
Women voters are more voting bjp. It is a proven fact.
He has given red flags states like UP Bihar Maharashtra and West Bengal just read his cryptic tone again.
@@sensibleenergy we will see on 4th bjp is crossing 325 at minimum
@@anupinkumar7398Karnataka assembly elections of 2023 women tilted to Cong. Guess it changes according to region.
Bjp may gain seat in bengal but modi and amit shah have opened pandora box for bengal society.
So it will be difficult and take long time to erase sorrow, pain, tear and hatred in the future
C voter has a miserable record. No wonder he isn’t sticking his neck out. A more realistic scenario is BJP winning a majority like in 2014 because they made mistakes in Bihar, Maharashtra and Haryana. UP, MP, Raj, Guj and Chattisgarh would be swept by BJP and that will help them sail through. But worrying signs for BJP. Without Modi the party won’t be able to cross 150.
But Modi himself was very central to these mistakes. Guess it's a paradox haha!
They need Yogi. If they run with Amit Shah in 2029, they will lose.
@@hema_caravan10 years, you do make some mistakes. But despite that u are getting back in power.
They will turn neutrals to left if they bring togi@@pnthrillz
Maharashtra they are already running on 29 seats. At max they will lose 5 seats. Still they will have the same seats as they won in 2019.
According to this discussion, BJP is lossing in all states, whether big or small. Then how come BJP will get 300 and above? This is a very ridiculous discussion without any meaning but full of contradiction..
Are you dumb ? BJP is loosing insignificant seats like 2/3 seats in 4-5states … in total 15seats … and gaining in UP , West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Naidu …
Hope you educate yourself
BJP is gaining in many states, for example Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal, Assam, AP and most probably few seate in Tamilnadu also
2024 is almost a repetition of 2019 elections. BJP will lose few seats in Rajasthan, Karnataka, Haryana but will gain few in Telangana, Odisa, UP and Bengal. So, net net it'll be 300 for BJP.
It will be reputation of 2004, the India Shining of the BJP. The voters are in the same mind set against the imaginary success of the BJP!
Odisha*
Yes corect mp gujarat clean sweap
UP BJP is going under 50
Wake up your dream is over bjp is winning atleast 70/80@@madhavanunni7335
C voter surveyed around 57k voters in 542 PCs.That means around 107 voters per constituency.If Every PC have around 7-8 lac voters,that means the sample size is 0.015%,which is statistically insignificant.
also they do this on telephone, believe in states like UP and Bihar no one would openly criticize or praise government, you need to be on ground like Rajiv Ranjan
Exactly anyone with even with 12th class probability one can guess these surveys are highly insignificant.... And these survey results are nothing but "mathematical heresay"....;
@sensibleenergy
All these are wrong some way or other.
Only thing is that bjp will get minimum 55 to 65
Based on probability.
Criticising political people in UP, bihar is nightmare for people . Have you ever heard any person saying my MLA is under-performer or not up to mark , he is scumbag, don’t work for people, his job is to route govt contract, scheme, illegal money from land grabbing and dispute all for himself and his family members. But people at these places will definitely raise their voices against prime minister and chief minister, because they know the political who lives near to them will come to them and make their life hell whereas PM or CM don’t care their unnecessary allegations, as it was supposed to be raised at local level, but we fear our lives and well being of our family members. This is the kind of fractured democracy we are into .
Satta mein badlav aaye na aaye, Deshmukh ji ke opinion mein badlav zaroor dikh raha hein 😂
It's true that things are changed if any one deny then I think he was not on the ground but the big but is bjp is on too higher side bjp is loosing few seat and most of the seats margins will get down and other bjp making over his all losses from South so bjp may be repeat 2019 may be few seat less or few seat high
"Nobody is saying BJP will lose 5 to 10 seats in their traditional strongholds" well, yogendra yadav was trying hard to create a false narrative before phase 4, 5, 6 and 7 knowing fully well that these phases favor the BJP
false narrative will be known after elections. 400 paar and all of godi media has been doing false narrative for ages. that said even deshmukh said there is a possibility of shift in up, maharasthra and bihar.
It is safe to assume Yogendra yadav has some sort of access to exit poll data as he helped set those processes up in india. Even known rss man like Prabhu Chawla saying kaante ki takkar after 5 rounds..no clear winner till now..again another man we can assume has some access to exit poll info
@@raghuvirkhanna7636Yogendra Yadav states disclaimers upfront: "I'm not doing any scientific survey, I'm more an activist". But giving his numbers anyway. He did start with the prediction of win for BJP, but changing it with each phase.
@@hema_caravan the reason everyone takes Yogendra yadav seriously is because of his background.thats the whole reason bjp had to get PK to bat for them to avoid possible damage in last 2 phases.now if you see both their predictions they are actually converging..Yogendra sayw bjp will not cross 250. Latest from PK is I don't see bjp falling below 270..so there actually isn't much of a material difference.
When has C Voter predicted successfully and how they can be experts when everytime they falter
Cvoter is rarely right in predicting election results.
Had AAP leader sent bouncers to beat yogendra Yadav and Prashant Bhushan long back? did they beat them ??? ha,ha,ha
Mark my words
Bjp 330 plus
NDA 370 PLUS 100%
Yeshvant Deshmukh may not a bad pollster but his agency C. Voter is very very poor.
Actually that is fact i really very surprised that the party like bjp has done blunder giving tickets in Uttar Pradesh the things bjp is safe is uttar Pradesh is Rashan and the vote difference is too high so bjo may not losse the seats effectively but margings are narrowed
How many seats you are expecting in UP?
@@TusharKashyap-nr4kl it will between 60 to 65
@@piyushtripathi7712 i think BJP will be 65 and with allies 68
@@TusharKashyap-nr4kl till now any thing can happen in Uttar pradesh so let's cross the figures
@@piyushtripathi7712 yes , mujhe lagta hai ki women me Modi ki wave hai UP , Bihar me , Men vs Men me takkar h
BJP ko women vote bacha rha h har jagah
Welcome to all
good analysis
Good discussion.both the guys well conversant.with the subject
No violence in west bengal because Hindus are not afraid of mamata banerjee 😮😮😮😮
Sirs,
1.Allin all an average of all 16 general elections is 52 -53 percent of turnout.
2.Above 65 percent turnout was came only after Modi entered the central politics.
3.2019 turnout was highest then all.
4.So, when we take 2019 for an analysis that all went to wrong.
5.1977 Anti emergency wave had seen at North lndia that turnout was 60.49 percent.
6.1984 turnout after Indiragandhi association was 64.01.
7.Accordings these datas that the present turnout has not been telling nothing to new.
I think overall there would be only 3 percent drop max to max if we think its all bjp loss bjp still wins with 10 crore votes
i want to see arguement what yashwant will speak on 4 june....he does just one thing he pick up 2019 vote share and do 2 3 prcnt here and there....according to him free ration work for bjp in up and bihar........but why the same scheme wont work for congress in karnataka and telangana and himachal and rajasthan
Yep it also means BJP has done way more than just giving 'free ration" which is another false narrative created by the ecosystem of congress when elections are going on for 2 months hoping that they can gain few seats here and there. When are they going to learn or honestly acknowledge that elections are won due to multiple reasons? Until they do that, it is impossible for the congress to come back to power
One word trust! If people don't have trust on you...even if you give away gold for free...they ll trash you to ditch. That's what happening to congress which did ruthless corruption from 2009-14 hiding behind manmohan....Aadharsh scam, AgustaWestland scam, 2G, coal scam, Aircel maxis scam, National herald scam...ill run out of space if I have to list everything they did
If experts analyst bases from 2019 then all will be wrong
Saw Vikram after long on TV! His cheeks look puffed up considerably!
The turnout percentage are inaccurate because the voter lists are not updated before the elections. The last time it was updated in my constituency was 3-4 years ago. Lakhs of people have moved out/in since then
PEENAZ TYAGI JI KO 1000 TOPOO KI SALAMI 💣💣💣💣💣💣💣
i gave u example of a seat in sirsa loksabha to show impact of pulwama.............here in 2014 bjp gets 20000 votes only and in 2019 they 5.5 lakh votes on same seat............sudden rise of 5.3 lakh vote how?????
If that was the case, why would BJP scored zero in Andhra, TN, Kerala and just got 2 seats in Punjab? Point is BJP gained only in its traditional seats due to multiple reasons not just "pulwama" and pointing to it as the only reason was done by pseudos to dilute BJP's work done in so many areas from infrastructure/ core structural reforms to social schemes. This dishonest narrative building by the ecosystem of the opposition is going to cost them 2024 as well.
Vanitasharma...
5 year gap is not sudden rise
vikram chandra dream dream dream. see the anxiety in this guy's face
Why get personal? Stick to the topic. Don’t troll.
@@sunilj10 VIKRAM CHANDRA IS EXTREMELY BIASED.. THE GUY US TRYING TO PUT WORDS INTO THE MOUTH.
@@sunilj10 crooks rajdeep, yougendra yadav, karan thapar gangs will tal
k about EVM on june 4
The real truth is the in today's political milieu, politicians are JUST interested in fighting and winning elections, in POWER CONSOLIDATION, and least interested in SERVING THE MASSES, in any substantive way. Manipur, Delhi, Karnataka, etc. are glaring examples of POWER POLITICS, not RESPONSIBILITY TAKING
It is only 350 seats. Opposition to be thumps sucking.
In maharastra in constituencies where contest is between ncp ( ajith) and congress or ncp sarat hindutwa voters are not showing intest to vote. Simillaly in constuencies where the contest is between uddav sena and bjp or shinde sena ncp and congress voters are not showing interest to vote. Simillarly minority voters. That may be the reason for drop in vote percentage in maharashtra.
What is the number
Allow Yashwant to complete.
If you listen carefully, while talking about BJP this guy was telling “we”. and opposition “they”. Before election why opinion polls in TV was trying to tally BJP’s claim of 370? These guys have no credibility.
Deshmukh has clearly stated: more turnout in tighter fights, and also less turnout in places where it’s lopsided. He also mentioned 3 states. Obviously advantage BJP because most were lopsided last election and the 3 states where BJP can only gain.
All this is ignored, and the host says: turnout doesn’t mean anything.
Strange conclusion, but ok. I guess everyone has their own reasons to look the other way.
every time the voting percentage improves in hindi belt it was a whitewash from BJP, low voter turn out in hindi belts is defintely not a good sign for BJP that's why Modi did Managalsutra, Bhains, Mandir, bla bla bla
Lower voter turnout favors the incumbent because the margin of victory for bjp has been around 50% in the last election. Also, opposition is terrible, same old daily comments followed by vacations. No real visionary leader. As for what people say during elections, media catches two sentences from 1000-2000 sentences.
It’s ok, everyone has to make a living. I see a Modi 3rd term, let’s see what the actual results are on June 4th.
@@SG-jk7py I'm not saying BJP is not coming either historically whenever voter turnout increases in Hindi belts it improved the tally of BJP, that's what I mean but if someone is saying ab ki baar 400 paar than he seriously needs a psychiatrist having seen the ground reports all over India, in my opinion BJP may cross 240 to 250 and NDA will cross just about the majority mark
@@sensibleenergy Sure, everyone can interpret as they please. My assessment: BJP will do very well in the Hindi belt as always. It will also gain in WB, Odisha, Telangana. Overall, it should hit 300, compensating for whatever losses in karnataka, if much. If you are an NDA supporter, there might be some concern with JDU and Shiv Sena. TDP is going to win. In short, BJP will get an easy majority, and NDA overall might not be as good as people thought. Let’s see on June 4th, for now it’s all speculation.
Sir,Plz.be mind it,in BJP(NDA) PM candidature is only Modi where as in Indi bloc every party supreme will aspirant to become as PM if it so can Congi digest and also nation.So 3.0 will be NaMo no doubt.
how did Manmohan Sir got elected? it's stupidity to say coalition government will fight for PM post, it never happened in past neither is going to happen.
Good to see Vikram and Yashwant engage in a very informed discussion 🎉🎉
All of this , may give soothing effect to everyone any party.. the reality will be 4th June 2024. that is all.
he was horribly wrong in predicting in haryana assembly ......he pick 2019 vote share or 56 prcnt of bjp and predict 80 seat for bjp and in real bjp got 36 prcnt vote which drop by 20 prcnt and seat were 40 ......he cant predict a state how can u believe he can do for whole country
Vikram talk about the new political party in Goa. Revolutionary Goans Party will win in Goa
WHY RAHUL RAN AWAY FROM AMETI?
Why contesting in 2 seats?
These are indicators of debacle of opposition.
SUPER NDA will definitely cross 400
Vikram looks like Prem Chopra now ❤
After the results, we will be talking about female voters and it is going to tilt the whole equation.
How much money did you get to declare your conclusion like this?
India 300+
Amit Shah has given large number os seats to sitting MPs to cut Yogi short....plus his meeting with Raja bhaiya in Bangalore and subsequent actions raise suspicion
Even known RSS man like Prabhu Chawla saying after 5 phases kaante ki Thakkar.. it is safe to assume he has access to exit poll data( also possibly true for Yogendra yadav)
What are you congratulating the Election Commission for? Denying opposition leaders tickets?
Meaningless discussion.Yashwant is not sticking his neck out on anything.This is a issueless election and resembles state and not national elections.Nothing really to discuss and obvious BJP is back offsetting small losses from newer areas in East and South.One would have expected a better Quality discussion on strategy,tactics rather than a singular narrative on castes.The Opposition lost the plot losing Nitish.In Maharashtra,BJP will retain its seats and its the alliance which has to prove its existence and relevance but it has the symbol which matters in rural areas.If Priyanka takes over they can plan for 2029 or leave it to kichdi again.
the way BJP is suppressing the opposition with cases and horse trading I doubt opposition even able to stand fighting in 2029, it's a last try from opposition in my opinion otherwise we're heading towards gujarat surat model
Vikram you're looking very tired. Hope all is well with you
Worst case for bjp is 283 and best case is 350. I believe bjp will hit 310
Janta jaag gayi hai. Wo khud hi correct predictions kar sakti hai.
Rozi roti ka problem ho raha predictions katnewaalon k!!😭😭
This expert is a classic Fence Sitter! This is because he talks both ways. While saying that Voter turnout basically doesn't indicate any slant towards any Party, this Yeshwant is basing his conclusions precisely on the Voter turn out!
His statements don't get us out of Square 1!😂😂
The final result will depend on more on how much BJP losses as compared to on how much INDIA alliance wins .....less than 272 seats for NDA alliance would be a big chance for the opposition to form the government
Yashwant Deshmukh already a biased person No credibility! BJP 310
Spoon of soniya gandhi like pranoy roy,vinod dua,ravish kumar,PP bajpai,Abhisar sharma,Ajit anjum,
In West Bengal, the Left votes went to BJP last time. If the Left comes back to them BJP 😮
Ye Chandra ko bhi NDTV ne bhaga diya???😂😂😂😂😂😂
BJP will win wirh thumping majority. Jai Shree Ram.
Those political who have not got cadres pays money to party workers during elections for petrol and for other expenses like breakfasts cold drinks etc and on polling day minimum of two thousands as booth expenses but in present elections opposition parties are neither paying any perks or motivating supporters in reality Neta didn't trust who ever approached them. So enthusiasm is completely lacking in this election
OMG, Vikram Chandra. I completely forgot he existed. He used to be a big thing a decade ago. I wish if Barkha and Rajdeep were made as irrelevant as he has become.
jaisi karni waisi bharni
Till 4th June BJP has to lose by heavy margins
After 4th June there will be only Vilaap in opposition 😂😂😂😂
So uch analysis when you can know outcome as soon as June 4 🤣🤣🤣🤣 And on that day every pollster will be wrong.
What the hell is yashwant saying. Absolute nonsense.
Bjp 280
Allies of bjp 60
Total 340
BJP either Minimum 300+ OR Maximum BJP+NDA 400+
Maharashtra UBT Vs Shivsena Direct fighting in 10 Seats ..
BJP Fighting UBT in 2 Seats Results 41+ Sharad Pawar+Congress lost case......
Deshmukh never had a right guess.. only knows good English and surviving. I am sure by 4th june, he will change his stance.
It is not correct to compare 2004 and 2024. No resemblance. Lot of changes in many many aspects. Do not worry. Bjp will definitely form the government once again with the seats of 345 to 370 for nda. That is all.
NDA will come close to 400. Not sure if they can cross it. They need 400+ now. Really important decisions coming up. One nation one elction, UCC, Delimitation, Women Reservation, 5 Trillion Economy and Industrialization. Need Modiji to be a real dictator now and hammer these reforms through and through
What is the final conclusion Mr Deshmukh? You seems more confused then Maharashtra voters.
"PM carpet bombing Uttranchal with rallies" 😂😂
Yeshwant is one guy shw some neutrality in hus assessment.
As of 2019 if we analyse
C voters (287 Seats)
servey against
Axis my India (339-365 =>352)
Then its seams that c voters gave 20 to 25% less seats to BJP
So overall conclusion is either he is beginner or he predicts based on chaos in media environment in poll predictions
People are simply tired and lost faith in the political class across the board
God bless you Mr Vikram ,God is kind .
Sabar karo baap firse aa rahe hain
Ur baap whr??
Yaar tum to sensible baatain kerte, clear propaganda chala rahe ho dikh raha hai, and V chandra looking jr. Soros
2024 will surprise all including Poll predictors.
It will not be 3 - 5 seats drop in already saturated BJP states like people predict or repeat 2019 result.
Some Key swing states like Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, UP, Bihar, Bengal & Assam will go 90% strike rate with NDA and BJP will clean sweep with 320 - 330 seats alone
Or else, the same 9 states will go 80% strike rate against NDA and BJP will come down to 135 - 145 seats.
People won't give hung verdict like in 1990s era.
2024 is not a done deal.
tell me when last time c-voter survey was correct ,
just consider these point.
silent voter for bjp ,those not come in public
Modi Scheme eneficiary
1.Food security
2.Gas connection to poor people
3.mudra loan
4.toilets Made for poor
5. 2.5:lacs for poor family
6.Women Self group
7. 6000 amount for farmer
8 . Rs 5 lac heath card for poor familyv
apart from beneficiary
Road ,railways ,airports,infrastructure development
world 5th economy
Ram temple
370
CAA
UCC is intiate
Now people like US ,we are with modi & BJP since 2014
Yashwant Deshmukh is hiding behind the turn out percentage to not give us a clear picture just because I think his RSS inclinations, no one is asking him to compare the results with voting percentages yet he's doing that😊. but the fact of the matter is he has clearly given indications of red flags for the states like Bihar, West Bengal, UP and Maharashtra just try to assess what he said about all these states I can only conclude loses for BJP
This man is so ill informed ... No deep down analysis at all.. He is going around and saying that Maharashtra turnout is heavily down but the fact is that its actually up from last time... Marginally... It was 61.02% and now its 61.29℅...even a common man is more sensible than this so called experts..
Same case for bengal too... He is saying turnout is up in bengal from last time but it's actually down by 2-3 percent from last time...and he says that the turnout in bengal is great... But sir it has always been high in bengal irrespective of whether there is a fight or no fight.. He is a sham!!
Vikram Chandra is alive......look at him seems suffering from hypertension, sugar thyroid sleep deprived puffy eyes and too many drinks......take rest sleep well.
It is looking like,
A professional way discussion
But not depends recent
Developments taken place
In Opposition party
Like price rice,
Unemployment,
Agnipath
Ect.,
Thae discussion is not
Like at present situation changed by the voters
Price rise, inflation, state of economy or unemployment are spoken and discussed only by educated idiots who claim they are intellectuals. those issues were there even during Nehru period. He, His daughter and grandson kept those issues alive for 60 years and still won. My father was also unemployed when Nehru was the PM. My mother also complained of rise of prices of urad dhal and onion.
So it is all useless. Most of the Indian voters go by Charisma, party affiliation, caste and Religious factors. why doesnt Modiji get votes from muslims and Christians, when they have never been harmed. Why shud i vote Modiji when I have gained nothing from him. what have people of Amethi and Raebariely got from the Congress family which has kept them poor for decades. Still some are fascinated by Priyanka as she resembles Indira
The simple fact is Congress has lost votes from all sections of the society becos of its corruption, arrogance and anti- India, anti-Hindu stand. Rahul looks so immatured on the scene and he has speeded up the process of death for Congress.
The so called pundits are idiots. The so called experts are fools. They raise a few issues becos they have been paid
This is also a repeat of 2019, where BJP may gain 5 to 10 seats overall and end up with 310 to 315
Congress may improve marginally to 56 seats like a dull student getting 22% this time bettering the last exam in which he got 18%
This yashwant Deshmukh is always wrong...from 2014 to 2024 almost all his prediction were wrong
bjp alliance 420 or more...congress alliance can only hope they cant cross 400..they still wont be able to stop modi becoming pm 3rd time in a row
Only Modiji 🎉🎉🎉
Yashwant Deshmukh cannot speak English to save his life …. His English is terrible and he is struggling to speak in English . He has also never to the best of my memory never got a single poll prediction right ever ….
Never ever never! Which what when how English is this?
Anchor y do u interfere in between, no no no
Kehna kya chahte Ho.
BJP 354+-6 seats winning.
C voter your survey again wrong nda 411-424 Congress under50seats
one cant see bjp cross250
Confusion 😂
In UP - Modi plus Yogi are going to better all predictions. On the whole, BJP will win more than 310 seats because of gains in states like Orissa, Bengal and Telengana (at least 30) making up for any losses elsewhere. And in any case, as long as they have a comfortable majority, who cares.
BJP sores beyond 359 by its own NDA will reach 400+ TMC gone 0nly 2 seats. Telengana 4seats to congress. TN also BJP wave at least ten seats. Only state may be having no BJP is Sankaracharya’s state kerala
BJP win 357
Evm is like: abhi hum jinda hai😂😂😂😂
😂😂
Sir...I know how desperate u r ..... infact whole previous ndtv journalist.....r wishing to hear bjp losing..... wait for 4th
Yes we are waiting but how bjp people are managing elections is exposed to everyone. every time bjp gets caught red handed doing bogus voting. Recent examples being a boy casting 8 votes to bjp, chandigarh elections etc.
By fair means your party won't be able to cross even 35 in UP.
Bjp will win but will get only 230 seats not 400
anitya . nothing is parmanent
Soros Putra Vikram Channdra
Yes all ex NDTV are same