As long as Saudi Arabia supports putin, Russia will continue to rake in oil profits. The sanctions are totally useless as long as India and China buy Russian oil .
I'm reminded of the Soviet Union. From 1983 to 1990 its reported GDP went from 4.2 trillian (USD) to 8.2 trillion (37% higher than the US's GDP for 1990). That's right a reported GDP growth of near 100% over 7 years(that's like 9.7% per year). The following year the USSR fell apart due to economic collapse. Go figure...
Russia is just pumping all the money they have in reserves towards the war. This is not sustainable. An economy with a growing real estate bubble is also looking great from GDP and will look amazing until the bubble bursts. I am still amazed how so many economists just look at the GDP to evaluate how good is an economy.
Because most Journalist aren't real journalist anymore. They wanna make the news not report factualy on it. I can't even really blame a lot of them they have to sell a product to and factual news isn't that sellable and cost a lot of money sensation sells and not doing research is cheap.
I have the view that there is both positive and negative GDP. Positive GDP contributes to the wellbeing of the population, whether that is in manufacturing, agriculture or services. Negative GDP does not contribute to wellbeing and much of Russian expenditure falls into this category, for example army trucks, tanks and munitions destroyed in war. It can be argued that only positive GDP improves the wealth of a nation. Negative GDP detracts from that wealth.
the russian reserve fund is used up already. its why the russian rouble has been weakening for a good 8 months. putin is printing roubles now to finance his war. the biggest weapon now is inflation.
I once dug into the IMF a bit and found that they have a very high percentage of Russians working for them. There predictions in regards to Russia have always been screwed.
Honestly, that doesnt matter. Why? Well, the IMF as a rule almost always does not question the numbers that are provided to them by other countries. So some autocracy can cook the books, make up utter nonsense, send the data they want the IMF to see and hide the rest and the IMF will just publish it and say "Yep, looks good to me."
Pouring money into military production is a main reason why Ruzzian GDP is decent. This, however, is not sustainable, and anything produced will be destroyed in Ukraine. Adding their staggering losses of young people in the war to all this, their economy will suffer for generations.
there is no trickle down effect from making a tank or shell and using it up. its worse because putin is printing roubles to finance his war for a good 6 months at least the way the rouble weakened. putins russian reserve fund is used up and the russian budget is in deficit. the russian economy wont grow but rather contract with 25 percent of the russian budget going to the war. the soviets did the same thing putting 38 percent of their budget to the war in the 1980's and they went kaput in 1990.
LOL...that mentality makes me realize why some Russian alphabet characters are backwards in a Western perspective...the world sees Russia suffering, sad what those beautiful people will have of a legacy when finished.
@@ChadLuciano The majority choose and want this though, Russian victimhood is always forced on the world, for a nation that believes in showing strength all the time its a very weak trait to have!.
It can when they can involve their citizens into war bonds. But you know the effect might be their liberalization as ordinary citizens will have more possessions due to looting from conquered territories.
@@schwarzflammenkaiser2347that’s because all inflation is personal inflation, if you don’t drive a car but car prices are rapidly increasing, it really doesn’t affect you.
When a country believes that claiming they shot their own aeroplane down - or that careless smoking destroyed their Navy's flagship - makes them look better than admitting Ukraine did it, you know what kind of stupid you are dealing with.
Have you watched this clipp? This wasn't about Russia cooking the books. This was about western media doing a bad job of explaining what the numbers mean. O i'm pretty sure Russia is cooking the books to but in this case they didn't need to.
Brilliant presentation Joe...as always. Misinformation regarding the state of the Russian economy are in hyperdrive...and people fall for it. We can argue the information sources but I don't see how anyone can look at the facts and believe Russia is doing well... absolutely insane.
Joe , a really good baseline , thank you . 1 further point - the growth that Russia is generating this year & last year is largely to produce bombs and bullets … so if ~45 % of government budget is on the military , and say half If this is wages and half is ‘materiel’ which is subsequently blown up … then I think net net after deducting production of expendable military stuff the Russian real economy is shrinking , the country’s wealth is declining . Also given the Reduction in spending on health and education … it’s fair to conclude Russia is poorer both materially and in health ! The success of the 3 day special military operation knows no boundaries … ! Thank you Joe
The United States is doing just that, right now, and for many years. The US has had a negative trade balance consistently since the 70's, and it's been growing in the last couple of decades.
They are still exporting a lot of oil though. The west needs to make up their minds about which side they are on and act accordingly (and most of all - consistently).
They're already importing petrol and have banned it's export for 6 months as of March. Gazprom just made a huge loss as it's export market - the EU - is permanently gone.
Twice in the past 110 years the Russian economy has collapsed under the pressure of financing a war. Putin keeps referencing Russian history, and clearly he is on a path to recreating this aspect as well.
Country xyz is gonna collaps soon! Dictator xyz is hanging in the ropes! Since 20 years Iran is supposed to have the bomb. Russia is out of missiles. Chinas economy is soon to implode. Are you not getting tired of all thise predictions? Read the last WorldBank report about RU economy. Tells the whole opposite. Remember we just got booted bye theTaliban.
@@LanaLender the mistake is having dictatorships with no ftreedom of press or speech or even access to information join the management board and therefore the numbers become a joke.
"The IMF has lowered the forecast for eurozone GDP growth in 2024 to 0.8%," Then if Russia's GDP is falling, how can we characterize what is happening in European countries?
The communists slowed Russia's development for more than 70 years in the last century. The current administration is trying to do the same. There are similar events everywhere. Germany's last century was stolen by certain parties. The same is true in China. And in many other places. North America has been a little slower here, so far, but... Advasary is coming.. Ephesians 6:12 Politics is theater.
I understand what you are saying, but economic troubles anywhere make the world a less stable place. If the Marshall Islands have economic trouble, it has minimal global effect and aid can be forthcoming. If the largest country in the world, Russia, has economic trouble it is not easily remedied... especially when the trouble is from misleadership.
Well this is bad news for Ukraine to. ! because it means Russia can finace this war a littlebit longer without effecting normale Russians to much. 2 They need to win or go bankrupt (yes Ukraine will go bankrupt to but its that already without western support wich it will get).
@@flagmichael Russia is the largest country in the World by land mass, however it could be argued that it's illegal and aggressive behaviour coupled with its relatively lowly economy makes it more of a burden than an advantage to World Trade, currently it is the architect of its own downfall which it has tried to engineer onto Europe which has suffered a minor recession but by 2025 that will be remedied and all whilst changing it's major energy supplier and be subject to Russia stealing it's capital from private enterprises, this will not be forgotten in the decades to follow and Russia's most lucrative energy market is lost forever and it will have to pay a very high premium for capital in the future, China is it's only saviour at present but they have more than a few problems themselves and the big picture outlook is not good for Russia, whoever gets in charge following Putin's reign, whenever that may be!?!
I used to work for a newspaper. Journalists are not economists. Many are not good at math. You have to be careful where you get your information. Thanks Joe!
Nope but the should be real good in finding out information and giving it to expert so they can report on it. Problem is Journalist nowadays just aren't real good in their core buisness. Because they don't do there core buisness anymore. Wich is explaining the news nowadays they are more about creating the news.
Scandal sheet Journalists look for the sensational headline, Russia's economy is best performing, sanctions are not working etc. not any of the actual facts, like Russia is spending 350 billion on its defence budget in 2024 up from 105 billion in 2023 that alone is a shortfall of 180 billion on Russia's 2024 reserves, and over half of the 350 billion defence budget ends up in Putin's and his cronies pockets!?!
its about cash flow, russia has a negative cash flow with russian reserve fund used up and russian budget in deficit. its why the rouble has weakened so much in last 6 months, putin printing roubles to finance his war in ukraine. he keeps doing that inflation is gonna callapse the russian economy. russia is on borrowed time with putin printing roubles to pay for his war in ukraine.
Because people just see numbers and seldom bother with the context of the numbers. GDP is a good measure of a country's economic performance. It never explains the context for that number so people think the lack of context is the context.
I think you misunderstood the video. GDP matters a lot. The point being made is that a percentage of GDP depends on multiple factors including how much GDP is made. If your GDP is $100 per year and it goes up by 100% then it would be $200 per year but if you compare that to a GDP of 3 trillion dollars a year then it's not in the same league even if a growth of 100% is a good achievement. Like if I get a raise in a year it will obviously be great for me. But if my neighbor gets a raise that is 10x times higher than my raise he can buy a much better new car. It doesn't mean my raise didn't matter or won't make a difference. It's just if everyone else did better than me then I lost out by not getting as big a raise. That is the point made.
GDP is a way to measure the economic activity in a country and that is actually a useful and valuable metric. But there is destructive and constructive activity and GDP does not say anything about what kind of activity is going on. This is what so many people miss. --- Let's say you build a house. That adds to the GDP so it seems positive. But let's say it turns out nobody wants to buy the house, or maybe it's so poorly built it's safe to live in (or maybe even both). Eventually you have to tear the house down and that's an economic activity too so you add even more to the GDP. But in the end you haven't added anything of actual value, all that GDP you created was just a waste of time and money. --- Russia doesn't do it that way of course; they don't waste money on boring things like housings and infrastructure. They spend it on fighting wars instead but that too is a destructive economic activity; it adds to the GDP but not to the wealth of the nation.
1. GDP DOES matter bc it indicates the economic health of a country. 2. ___ THE Main Point ___ Russia's "growth" is temporary and driven by artificial forces (force-fed War Time Economy). 3. The IMF face-value predictions are misleading bc they suggest Russia's economy is strong - it is not. It is cannibalizing itself to feed the war machine. 4. Their growth is NOT due to healthy, growing, Normal consumer economy = where companies serve Russia's consumers and Russia's export economy.
GDP is a very misleading measurement of a country's success or failure. For example, the Republic of Ireland has a very high GDP, but their economy is heavilly supported by the state acting as a tax haven for major international companies. In reality, wages are reasonable, but prices are high and there is a major housing crisis. The IMF accepts data from sovereign countries without detailed analysis.
Thats because most people don't understand what GDP really means the IMF data from Ireland is probable correct but GDP doesn't mean all that much for an individuale. It doesn't even mean all that much for a country unless you relate it to other numbers. Only the USA and China have high enough numbers % wise of the entire globe that you know they can put a real dent for the rest of the world into things if something really goes wrong there.
@@raybod1775 Thats the first time i heard that one. Not saying you are wrong cause i normaly only look at GDP per capita wich is much more relevant then just GDP.
@@raybod1775 it had. you live in the past: "In 2008, the eurozone and the US had equivalent gross domestic products (GDP) at current prices of $14.2 trillion and $14.8 trillion respectively (€13.1 trillion and €13.6 trillion). Fifteen years on, the eurozone's GDP is just over $15 trillion, while US GDP has soared to $26.9 trillion."
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld at Yale says there are a number of Russians on the IMF staff, and the IMF uses data provided by Russia, so IMF data on Russia is complete bologna.
@@SrdjanBasaric-w2s Yes we do believe Russia will collapse comrade, I wouldn't believe Putin, he's a serial liar, it's day 700 and odd of a three day war already comrade, if you hadn't noticed and the cost to Russia has been huge for less than 5% of Ukraine land since the illegal 2022 invasion (Following the 2014 illegal invasion) and the US and Europe are just gearing up their "wartime" economies!?!
another important point about the Russian GDP growth is what constitutes this growth - it is a very unproductive growth and it drives them into debt. They produce a lot of stuff that gets destroyed within days, weeks or months on the Ukrainian front. There is not much use or productivity gained from it. It's not an investment in network of highways or railroads that facilitates the transportation of goods and people. It's not an investment in the higher education system that will produce highly skilled and highly productive labor force in future. They are not increasing the production of goods and services that will improve the living standard for the average Russian. Instead, they make old technology weapons and send a big chunk of their productive labor potential to their deaths in Ukraine. Well done Putin, you really transformed the lives of Russians
They could have an incredible country with a truly booming economy, phenomenal infrastructure, schools, hospitals, housing, everything. All would benefit. All would live in peace and interact with the rest of the world. But no .. vast corruption in their govt destroys this and a madman dictator with crazy imperialistic dreams turns Russia into a hell hole. It seems it’s always that way with Russia. Idk how the Russian people put up with it.
If you believe the IMF, I have a nice harbour bridge to sell you. The IMF and the World Bank couldn't forecast the weather, let alone what will happen in the world economy. Show these people the respect they deserve: NIL
One other point that you failed to ascribe to the so called 'war economy' is that the state which is directly funding this economy has limited funds. Sooner rather than later, the cash will simply run out. At current rates of expenditure, it has been estimated by some economists that the state reserves will last only for another six months.
Russia's economy is based on packs of lies and its hard to determine the full extent of its shortcomings and the way it will bend things to make it fit, even by reducing pensions, disability, healthcare etc., it has greatly reduced the prison budget for example, it would be better that the West puts Russia down for two more years at this rate of war effort to help sustain Ukraine's funding and equipment required during this time, this will also coincide with the time approximately that Russia's Soviet Stock Piles will be depleted, hopefully it will only last six months but we have to be realistic for Ukraine's sake, we do not want another funding gap, and even if Russia is booted out then the borders need securing with strong land defences and air defences!?!
Reuters published an article in january claiming RU could even afford an oil price of 60usd for some years before they run out of cash. They seem to have reduced social spending very much and tried to balance the budget. I really have no knowledge if this assessment is correct, and the article might be flawed because there could be many "hidden" budgets and the drone strikes had no impact yet. I guess Ukraine needs to step up the refinery strikes much much more to knock down the war economy.
In all fairness Joe has pointed out again and again that the war economy depletes the state's reserves. And apart from that, it kills the regular economy leaving the country in a very tough position once the war ends. It is easier to conserve your clients than gain new ones.
@@hessidave China and India were buying more crude though back in January plus the latest Russian block on exporting refined oil products hadn't started. That forecast would be very much revised downwards now. Even with reducing social spending the vast increase in military production is eating into Russian cash reserves, we just don't know how fast they are being used up.
I learned from the Enforcer last night that 60% of Russia's economy is dependent on oil and gas. And one of their major companies that produce that 60% got hit by a drone! One of those factories alone provides 7% of 60% by its lonesome!
@@antony6799 oil is the only money maker for russia right now. if you think russia produces anything else the world is buying you are not in touch with reality. when russia lost eu as an energy customer, the russians lost 51 percent of their energy gdp to eu by pipeline over night. no small number of ships can make up that volume in sales. the transit time by pipeline is 2 days max, versus a ship which can be weeks or a month to get back to port to reload. in terms of gas 82 percent of russian gas went to eu by pipeline. russia cant sell that excess now to anyone else cuz there are no pipelines that can handle that volume. there is a chinese pipeline but its already operating at full capacity.
A good example of using a [relatively] advantageous rise was Trump saying during the 2020 election that the Dow Jones had had its greatest rise that year under his watch. Well, technically yes, it went up, but after a disastrous dive due to Covid early in the year. When he was making that statement, the Dow had not yet rebounded to its pre-covid level, but trying to implicate things were just great belied the longer trend - just like you point out with GDP.
are you trying to compare the russian economic gdp that was 1.9 trillion before the war and likely 900 billion and shrinking now to the american economy that is diversified and has a 20 trillion a year economic gdp? is that what you are trying to do?
@@mrjerzheel yes but that was because of the mid east oil embargo. they were deliberately trying to slow the world economies and drop the oil price as well as american inflation which they did. it dropped oil to 10 dollars a barrel in the mid 80's. its also why the ussr went bankrupt in 1990. you cant compare russian economic gdp to american also. russia doesnt have a diversified economy like the americans. and americans have a 20 trillion dollar a year economy. i believe russian economic gdp before war was only 1.9 trillion, and now its likely 900 billion and shrinking. other than oil and a few other commodities, russia doesnt produce anything the world wants. its why russia has a cash flow problem now and their budget is in deficit with putin having used up the russian reserve fund he built up over 8 years. its why the rouble has lost value last 6 months because putin is printing roubles to finance his war in ukraine now. its why the russian economy is on the clock now as inflation rises from putin printing roubles to finance his war.
when they stopped reporting using accepted methods, changed finance ministers till they got one that would cover it up, you couldn't have any other outcome.
Given a choice between Russia with a GDP of just under $2T economy and Canada's just over $2T economy, I think it is obvious where one would want to live.
russia had an economic gdp before war of 1.9 trillion. russian economic gdp likely 900 billion now and shrinking. besides putin used up his reserve fund and put the russian budget into deficit. last 6 months putin has been printing roubles to finance his war the way the rouble weakened. russian economy on the clock as inflation climbs higher as putin prints more roubles.
@@giovanni-ed7zq Wrong. The Russian national wealth fund only declined by about $20B over the last year. It STILL has about $135B to work with. This isn't over yet.
It also matters that all the investments in the war economy are (largely) not productive investments. Once the investments have been spent, the funds are gone and will not have contributed to growth in the future.
The bigger question is who calculates Russian GDP & in what currency? How does Russia lose most of its enormous European gas markets, much of its refined products exports & so many of its oil markets that is has to hugely discount its oil exports + reductions in almost all of its other export markets & post any economic growth? Spending reserves is not real economic growth. It is like so much of China's GDP growth is related to its massive debt financed infrastructure & construction markets to create huge quantities of empty buildings + government controlled GDP calculations. Also real inflation adjusted GDP would tell the more true story.
This is similar to two family members getting a raise. One gets a 5% raise and the other gets a 2% raise. The 5% looks good on paper until you see that is someone making $10.00 and hour and the 2% raise is someone making $35.00 an hour.
GDP growth is a good measure of economic success in a free market, but under socialism or other interventionist economies, it tell you nothing beyond how much money the government is spending. That's why dictatorships like Nazi Germany and Mao's China initially seemed to be doing well for the first five to ten years, despite the fact that their economies were severely weakening.
@@mrjerzheel but the resource sector is very capital intensive and often high tech. Russia lacks both to sustain its oil industry. Especially with the challenges posed by the climate there.
@@mrjerzheel 67 percent of russian households outside of the cities dont even have running toilets. regardless the russian economy is heavily sanctioned now. putin used up the reserve fund and put the russian budget into deficit so the russians have negative cash flow. its why the rouble weakened last 6 months because putin was printing roubles to pay for his war. so with inflation, the russian economy is now on borrowed time and on the clock.
@@lowdpacks7874 no actually its reality. the russian oil and gas industry was run on western technology and expertise. when the western companies left they could no longer get parts. its why russian oil production is dropping because they cant replace the broken or worn parts. in addition those limited refineries ukraine hitting in russia , well its likely russia cant repair those because they cant get western parts. also creates a bottleneck of russian crude and they either have to sell at deeper discounts to chinese and indians at 40-50 percent or they have to shut off the pumping of crude at their wells.
I don't think so. If you look at the total nominal GDP in 2015 compared to 2013, it almost halved... from $2.3 trillion in '13 to $1.3 trillion in '15, acc to the IMF. So there must've been a strong Ruble devaluation. (however, the PPP-adjusted value was much less affected)
@@dyawr Look at the crude oil prices. In mid-2014 it was like $130 a barrel, while in 2015 as low as $48! To my understanding, this had a bigger impact on Russian economy than the sanctions (which only affected the growth by 0.5% or so, as far as I remember the calculations by some experts).
@@joojoojeejee6058 the difference now is putin used up his russian reserve fund and put the russian budget into deficit. and putin is printing roubles to finance his war in ukraine for a good 6 months at least the way the rouble weakened.
Probably to keep the Russians to Bury their heads on the sand while making the West wake up from the slumber because that momentary "advantage" of Russia can still affect the outcome of the Ukraine War.
@@carolwilliams8511 If the IMF starts calling people liars, they've taken a side in a fight when they want to be an arbiter providing guidance and perspective to the international community. I doubt economists there are just looking for a paycheck.
We are already seeing it in increased numbers of companied going bankrupt this year over last year and decreases in oil and gas production....decreases in exports, shortages of labour at factories etc etc
It’s more to do with the US dollar strengthening, so naturally the US economy will become a larger share. In GDP PPP growth, Europe’s growth has been pretty much equivalent to the US. Saying economies are tanking if the US dollar strengthens is not accurate.
@@StPiter111 " Crimean exclusive champagne " Classic gopnik. Champagne can by definition only come from the district of Champagne in France, literally.
Gazprom just announced a €6.38 billion (629 Billion Rubles) loss for 2023. Russia's share of Global GDP is also declining, from 3.7% to 2.9% between 2008-2024. It's expected to keep declining to 2.71% by 2029. You don't need to be an expert to see that Russia's revanchism has completely flopped.
nah you need to check that you are not only subscribed but also have selected to receive regular updates. You need to click on the subscribed button and make sure notifications are not set to "none"
Am I right in thinking that how a country achieved growth is not taken into account in GDP figures, ie growth could be paid for by spending national savings or by borrowing? Russia spent 20 years accumulating a national wealth fund. If the war and GDP is being funded by using the savings, there could be a cliff edge when those savings run out. Yesterday one YT channel stated Gazprom had now declared it was operating at a loss, not a profit, a sign of problems ahead? The Russian pundits on RT domestic broadcasts recently have been talking about Russia is really at war with the west, and was thinking in terms of that war continuing through to at least 2030. China is thought to consider 2027 as a date by which China could go to war over Taiwan. It is speculated that if China goes to war over Taiwan, Russia could time its expansion of war in Europe to take advantage of America's commitment to the Indo Pacific. Unless Russia is soundly defeated or goes bankrupt, I think the military spending will aim to be continued to modernise and rebuild Russia's military far beyond any ceasefire in Ukraine. The USSR built huge stocks of weapons, year upon year since WW2, which is how Russia has been able to sustain its current high losses of equipment. If Putin is still in power, I think he will aim to continue the USSR philosophy regarding the military.
You are right. GDP is gross domestic production. How that growth is achieved is not a consideraton. Nor is whether the gdp is actually part of the local economy. As an example a lot of the gdp growth in Africa is actually foreign multinationals extracting natural resources, with a fragment of that wealth going to the locals.
They're already using up their post WWII stocks. They've been using mid century tanks in Ukraine since last year. If NATO actually took the Russia threat seriously (they don't) and really threw their political and economic weight behind preparing for war, they could completely eclipse anything Russia is capable of. Russia is on 100% war footing. NATO hasn't even bothered to dust off its boxing gloves yet.
Problem for russia is many fold; 1) Sanctions are cutting its imports and exports....and its ability to manufacture, and secondary sanctions are now cutting off the loopholes they had been using. 2) russia spent most of its wealth fund at the end of 2023 paying off last years deficit, as well as a big chunk of money they had in chinese banks and their gold reserves, so their piggybank is almost empty. and 3) the large stockpiles of weapons from the last 40 years has already been used up. Anything from 1945-1955 is useless, and old ammo has a high failure rate. russia isnt making new tanks, it is refurbishing older tanks that were stored, but due to lack of proper maintenance dont work anymore....meaning they have to replace parts and spend more money on an old tank they already paid for. With over half of russia tanks and armoured vehicles already destroyed they are scraping the bottom of the barrel now. With black market items from china and turkey being sanctioned as well as any 3rd party countries, there is less and less for russia to work with, just as ukraine is getting larger military aid packages, with newer, more accurate, more long distance and more lethal weapons and ammo. russia is going bankrupt AND being defeated at the same time.
@@jtf2dan I'm in agreement with your projection except for the time, I think Russia has a year left in National Wealth Fund and in stored equipment, although Ukraine looks like it is accelerating the economic decline through hitting the refineries.
@@dyawr But they are still growing faster than the West currently, so the gap will reduce, Germany and UK are growing at 0% while Russia is growing at 3% last year and this year
@@antony6799 Sir, *why don't u watch the video?* It precisely explains this very well. Russia *is not* growing faster than the West, on the contrary, the gap between it & Western countries is increasing. For example, this year it's simply bouncing back from last year's recession, that's why its growth rate is higher...
@@dyawr The video ignores a lot of factors that could have benefited Russia's economy, like the demographic boost of 7 million new Russia speaking citizens that they got from Eastern Ukraine, even if you account for the deaths, Russia is now significantly better demographically than they were in 2022, exports have also increased beyond pre war levels
If you only look at GDP, then you’re only looking at a small portion of the equation. This is one of the biggest problems with a western countries. It’s an accounting problem, that means you can’t just look at income, you also have to look at debt / expenses. Russia beats all of those countries.
Joe I like how you mentioned how many paetreon supporters other UA-camrs like you have, that may prompt some to help support you, since many people rally around their favorites and want to see them on top!
I believe there's more to this analysis. 1st, using year 0 as a starting point, with a 5% drop in GDP in year 1, then growth in year 2 must be ça 5.5% to get to the same level as year 0. The calculation isn't linear. Second, depending on the source, Russian military spending is between 6% and 7.6% of GDP IN 2024 (ca 40% of the central government budget), and only the multiplier effect of higher salaries offered by the defence industry will reach the average consumer. Ammunition and other war materièl is produced and quickly destroyed. Hence, consumer welfare is actually reduced by at least 3%.
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Daily dose of anti-Russian propaganda 👍
@@cranberryeater7459If you think it's propaganda, what is the alternative? 🤔
As long as Saudi Arabia supports putin, Russia will continue to rake in oil profits. The sanctions are totally useless as long as India and China buy Russian oil .
Please also make a video about the financials of gazprom. The posted currently a huge loss
@@cranberryeater7459 "propaganda" - Any well researched facts ruSSian cope bots can't argue.
I'm reminded of the Soviet Union. From 1983 to 1990 its reported GDP went from 4.2 trillian (USD) to 8.2 trillion (37% higher than the US's GDP for 1990). That's right a reported GDP growth of near 100% over 7 years(that's like 9.7% per year). The following year the USSR fell apart due to economic collapse. Go figure...
Russia is just pumping all the money they have in reserves towards the war. This is not sustainable. An economy with a growing real estate bubble is also looking great from GDP and will look amazing until the bubble bursts. I am still amazed how so many economists just look at the GDP to evaluate how good is an economy.
Because most Journalist aren't real journalist anymore. They wanna make the news not report factualy on it. I can't even really blame a lot of them they have to sell a product to and factual news isn't that sellable and cost a lot of money sensation sells and not doing research is cheap.
Economics was created by the Rothchildes to extend the reach of their influence as Banksters.
I have the view that there is both positive and negative GDP. Positive GDP contributes to the wellbeing of the population, whether that is in manufacturing, agriculture or services. Negative GDP does not contribute to wellbeing and much of Russian expenditure falls into this category, for example army trucks, tanks and munitions destroyed in war. It can be argued that only positive GDP improves the wealth of a nation. Negative GDP detracts from that wealth.
ruSSia only produces single use articles - tanks with detachable turrets, sinking ships, diving planes, ammunition, vodka, meat waves.
the russian reserve fund is used up already. its why the russian rouble has been weakening for a good 8 months. putin is printing roubles now to finance his war. the biggest weapon now is inflation.
I once dug into the IMF a bit and found that they have a very high percentage of Russians working for them. There predictions in regards to Russia have always been screwed.
Interesting...
Honestly, that doesnt matter. Why? Well, the IMF as a rule almost always does not question the numbers that are provided to them by other countries.
So some autocracy can cook the books, make up utter nonsense, send the data they want the IMF to see and hide the rest and the IMF will just publish it and say "Yep, looks good to me."
You are spot on and same with all the big organisations as same with China , all corrupted propaganda for their own deluded world they live in.
@@2639thebossi have been saying this for years. IMF, World Bank etc DO NOT verify the numbers they are being given. Its absolutely laughable.
@2639theboss yes, china is especially guilty of this and have been caught several time publishing fake GDP data.
Pouring money into military production is a main reason why Ruzzian GDP is decent. This, however, is not sustainable, and anything produced will be destroyed in Ukraine.
Adding their staggering losses of young people in the war to all this, their economy will suffer for generations.
there is no trickle down effect from making a tank or shell and using it up. its worse because putin is printing roubles to finance his war for a good 6 months at least the way the rouble weakened. putins russian reserve fund is used up and the russian budget is in deficit. the russian economy wont grow but rather contract with 25 percent of the russian budget going to the war. the soviets did the same thing putting 38 percent of their budget to the war in the 1980's and they went kaput in 1990.
In Russia they measure GDP in vodka consumption
GDVC
The higher the consumption, the worse their economy is!
@@drewmalesky9869 or simply GDC measured in Giga Liters (GL/person)
😂😊👍
At least they use the metric system like any other sane country on planet earth.
You can have economic "growth" from digging a hole and filling it in again! War spending is just digging a hole!
Currently Russia is digging a lot of holes and sending their families Chinese cars!?!
Bravo 👈🏾
In Rossiiya, economy doesn’t make war, war makes economy
Temporarily at least.
LOL...that mentality makes me realize why some Russian alphabet characters are backwards in a Western perspective...the world sees Russia suffering, sad what those beautiful people will have of a legacy when finished.
@@ChadLuciano The majority choose and want this though, Russian victimhood is always forced on the world, for a nation that believes in showing strength all the time its a very weak trait to have!.
A war economy is short term
It also cripples your workforce
Dead and wounded young men
give a weak workforce👎👎🇺🇦🇺🇦
It can when they can involve their citizens into war bonds. But you know the effect might be their liberalization as ordinary citizens will have more possessions due to looting from conquered territories.
The published inflation rate of 7% is a great Russian fairytale
To be fair i feel like most Inflation rates out there don´t reflect the reality of the situation.
@@schwarzflammenkaiser2347that’s because all inflation is personal inflation, if you don’t drive a car but car prices are rapidly increasing, it really doesn’t affect you.
They just shaved off 10%😂😂 classic move
@@Nun195 True but it does reflect the avarage spending power of a society and thats what finance a war (well any governement but especially a war).
If it was YoY then its quite accurate.
Russia cooking the books. Predictably poorly. Good job Joe.
When a country believes that claiming they shot their own aeroplane down - or that careless smoking destroyed their Navy's flagship - makes them look better than admitting Ukraine did it, you know what kind of stupid you are dealing with.
Have you watched this clipp? This wasn't about Russia cooking the books. This was about western media doing a bad job of explaining what the numbers mean.
O i'm pretty sure Russia is cooking the books to but in this case they didn't need to.
Brilliant presentation Joe...as always. Misinformation regarding the state of the Russian economy are in hyperdrive...and people fall for it. We can argue the information sources but I don't see how anyone can look at the facts and believe Russia is doing well... absolutely insane.
@@arturobianco848 Problem is that the media is reporting figures based on those cooked accounting books. So, we have bad reporting based on bad data.
@@arturobianco848 Learn to spell Ivan, it blows your cover
The presentation at 9:05 was especially helpful for understanding how sporadic fluctuations do damage to the long perspective in almost anything.
Joe , a really good baseline , thank you . 1 further point - the growth that Russia is generating this year & last year is largely to produce bombs and bullets … so if ~45 % of government budget is on the military , and say half If this is wages and half is ‘materiel’ which is subsequently blown up … then I think net net after deducting production of expendable military stuff the Russian real economy is shrinking , the country’s wealth is declining . Also given the Reduction in spending on health and education … it’s fair to conclude Russia is poorer both materially and in health !
The success of the 3 day special military operation knows no boundaries … !
Thank you Joe
Hi Joe
Best wishes from Alberta Canada.
Thank you for this update. Slava Ukraini
Ukraine is done my friend. It will become a landlocked nation.
That was a very good explanation! Thank you, Joe!
Well done. Very good analysis. Thank you.
The Ruzzian economy is growing in the sense that a man who eats his own legs will put on weight. Not a great long-term strategy however...
What a good analogy!
@@JaneSoole Only if one assumes that the bones will be consumed as well..... perhaps washed down with a good chianti?
He wouldn't necessarily put on weight by eating his own legs unless he's at a calorie surplus. In your analogy, where are the russians pooping?
Thanks for the work you do Joe!
Thank you very much for putting those growth figures into perspective.
If they import but not export it will come to a end
They will never admit it though.
The United States is doing just that, right now, and for many years. The US has had a negative trade balance consistently since the 70's, and it's been growing in the last couple of decades.
What currency was the trade imbalance measured in? Oh, that’s USD. Who manages liquidity of that currency?
They are still exporting a lot of oil though. The west needs to make up their minds about which side they are on and act accordingly (and most of all - consistently).
They're already importing petrol and have banned it's export for 6 months as of March.
Gazprom just made a huge loss as it's export market - the EU - is permanently gone.
Russia is now a house of cards, so many things can send the cards crashing down. No longer if, but when.
Twice in the past 110 years the Russian economy has collapsed under the pressure of financing a war. Putin keeps referencing Russian history, and clearly he is on a path to recreating this aspect as well.
Exactly....and if putin tries mobilizing a large chunk again it will be the straw that breaks the camels back!
He has already broke the camels back, he's just flogging it now!?!
Country xyz is gonna collaps soon!
Dictator xyz is hanging in the ropes!
Since 20 years Iran is supposed to have the bomb. Russia is out of missiles. Chinas economy is soon to implode.
Are you not getting tired of all thise predictions? Read the last WorldBank report about RU economy. Tells the whole opposite.
Remember we just got booted bye theTaliban.
You men like when Hitler said " we just need to kick the door in and the whole rotten structure collapses"
In Russia GDP stands going down permanently.
Really? "The International Monetary Fund has raised the forecast for the growth of the Russian economy in 2024 from 2.6% to 3.2%. " Is this a mistake?
@@LanaLender the mistake is having dictatorships with no ftreedom of press or speech or even access to information join the management board and therefore the numbers become a joke.
"The IMF has lowered the forecast for eurozone GDP growth in 2024 to 0.8%," Then if Russia's GDP is falling, how can we characterize what is happening in European countries?
The communists slowed Russia's development for more than 70 years in the last century. The current administration is trying to do the same.
There are similar events everywhere.
Germany's last century was stolen by certain parties.
The same is true in China.
And in many other places.
North America has been a little slower here, so far, but...
Advasary is coming..
Ephesians 6:12
Politics is theater.
@@LanaLender I would refer you to the video you are commenting on.
Thank you Joe!!!!
You've just answered the question(s) I wanted to know the answer to Joe. Great vid as always. Cheers!
Thanks Joe much appreciated 👍
Always love hearing about the ruZZian economy, especially when it's bad news.
Right on Toby.
I understand what you are saying, but economic troubles anywhere make the world a less stable place. If the Marshall Islands have economic trouble, it has minimal global effect and aid can be forthcoming. If the largest country in the world, Russia, has economic trouble it is not easily remedied... especially when the trouble is from misleadership.
I'll do as I please. Thank you.
Well this is bad news for Ukraine to. ! because it means Russia can finace this war a littlebit longer without effecting normale Russians to much.
2 They need to win or go bankrupt (yes Ukraine will go bankrupt to but its that already without western support wich it will get).
@@flagmichael Russia is the largest country in the World by land mass, however it could be argued that it's illegal and aggressive behaviour coupled with its relatively lowly economy makes it more of a burden than an advantage to World Trade, currently it is the architect of its own downfall which it has tried to engineer onto Europe which has suffered a minor recession but by 2025 that will be remedied and all whilst changing it's major energy supplier and be subject to Russia stealing it's capital from private enterprises, this will not be forgotten in the decades to follow and Russia's most lucrative energy market is lost forever and it will have to pay a very high premium for capital in the future, China is it's only saviour at present but they have more than a few problems themselves and the big picture outlook is not good for Russia, whoever gets in charge following Putin's reign, whenever that may be!?!
I used to work for a newspaper. Journalists are not economists. Many are not good at math. You have to be careful where you get your information. Thanks Joe!
Nope but the should be real good in finding out information and giving it to expert so they can report on it. Problem is Journalist nowadays just aren't real good in their core buisness.
Because they don't do there core buisness anymore. Wich is explaining the news nowadays they are more about creating the news.
I mean look at how much China's growth has slowed as reaches developed status.
Scandal sheet Journalists look for the sensational headline, Russia's economy is best performing, sanctions are not working etc. not any of the actual facts, like Russia is spending 350 billion on its defence budget in 2024 up from 105 billion in 2023 that alone is a shortfall of 180 billion on Russia's 2024 reserves, and over half of the 350 billion defence budget ends up in Putin's and his cronies pockets!?!
Bot.
its about cash flow, russia has a negative cash flow with russian reserve fund used up and russian budget in deficit. its why the rouble has weakened so much in last 6 months, putin printing roubles to finance his war in ukraine. he keeps doing that inflation is gonna callapse the russian economy. russia is on borrowed time with putin printing roubles to pay for his war in ukraine.
❤Thanks Joe!❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
As the Finns say, "Everything in ruzzia is shit except piss."
Thanks for your opinion ❤ love from Ruzzia
That would make a good shirt lol
Cue the Orcobots screaming purchasing power parity without the slighest clue what it means.
Thank you
So GDP doesn't really matter. So why are we so fixated on it.
Comparing growth percentage in a vacuum is misleading. GDP is still a good metric.
Because people just see numbers and seldom bother with the context of the numbers. GDP is a good measure of a country's economic performance. It never explains the context for that number so people think the lack of context is the context.
I think you misunderstood the video. GDP matters a lot. The point being made is that a percentage of GDP depends on multiple factors including how much GDP is made. If your GDP is $100 per year and it goes up by 100% then it would be $200 per year but if you compare that to a GDP of 3 trillion dollars a year then it's not in the same league even if a growth of 100% is a good achievement.
Like if I get a raise in a year it will obviously be great for me. But if my neighbor gets a raise that is 10x times higher than my raise he can buy a much better new car.
It doesn't mean my raise didn't matter or won't make a difference. It's just if everyone else did better than me then I lost out by not getting as big a raise. That is the point made.
GDP is a way to measure the economic activity in a country and that is actually a useful and valuable metric. But there is destructive and constructive activity and GDP does not say anything about what kind of activity is going on. This is what so many people miss.
---
Let's say you build a house. That adds to the GDP so it seems positive.
But let's say it turns out nobody wants to buy the house, or maybe it's so poorly built it's safe to live in (or maybe even both).
Eventually you have to tear the house down and that's an economic activity too so you add even more to the GDP. But in the end you haven't added anything of actual value, all that GDP you created was just a waste of time and money.
---
Russia doesn't do it that way of course; they don't waste money on boring things like housings and infrastructure. They spend it on fighting wars instead but that too is a destructive economic activity; it adds to the GDP but not to the wealth of the nation.
1. GDP DOES matter bc it indicates the economic health of a country.
2. ___ THE Main Point ___ Russia's "growth" is temporary and driven by artificial forces (force-fed War Time Economy).
3. The IMF face-value predictions are misleading bc they suggest Russia's economy is strong - it is not. It is cannibalizing itself to feed the war machine.
4. Their growth is NOT due to healthy, growing, Normal consumer economy = where companies serve Russia's consumers and Russia's export economy.
GDP is a very misleading measurement of a country's success or failure. For example, the Republic of Ireland has a very high GDP, but their economy is heavilly supported by the state acting as a tax haven for major international companies. In reality, wages are reasonable, but prices are high and there is a major housing crisis. The IMF accepts data from sovereign countries without detailed analysis.
I agree but lets not forget that countries like Ireland are not the rule. Most countries are strucured "normally" and are therefore comparable.
Thats because most people don't understand what GDP really means the IMF data from Ireland is probable correct but GDP doesn't mean all that much for an individuale. It doesn't even mean all that much for a country unless you relate it to other numbers. Only the USA and China have high enough numbers % wise of the entire globe that you know they can put a real dent for the rest of the world into things if something really goes wrong there.
@@arturobianco848 Eurozone has a larger economy than the U.S.
@@raybod1775 Thats the first time i heard that one. Not saying you are wrong cause i normaly only look at GDP per capita wich is much more relevant then just GDP.
@@raybod1775 it had. you live in the past: "In 2008, the eurozone and the US had equivalent gross domestic products (GDP) at current prices of $14.2 trillion and $14.8 trillion respectively (€13.1 trillion and €13.6 trillion). Fifteen years on, the eurozone's GDP is just over $15 trillion, while US GDP has soared to $26.9 trillion."
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld at Yale says there are a number of Russians on the IMF staff, and the IMF uses data provided by Russia, so IMF data on Russia is complete bologna.
Sounds like your coping
especially liked the summary and conclusion remarks
Great stuff as usuall Joe. Always an educaiton. Thanks a million.
The rushist empire is starting to crumble
Dont say?
Should be faster!
MUGA
When will it collapse? You have a fixed date?
@@SrdjanBasaric-w2s Yes we do believe Russia will collapse comrade, I wouldn't believe Putin, he's a serial liar, it's day 700 and odd of a three day war already comrade, if you hadn't noticed and the cost to Russia has been huge for less than 5% of Ukraine land since the illegal 2022 invasion (Following the 2014 illegal invasion) and the US and Europe are just gearing up their "wartime" economies!?!
another important point about the Russian GDP growth is what constitutes this growth - it is a very unproductive growth and it drives them into debt. They produce a lot of stuff that gets destroyed within days, weeks or months on the Ukrainian front. There is not much use or productivity gained from it. It's not an investment in network of highways or railroads that facilitates the transportation of goods and people. It's not an investment in the higher education system that will produce highly skilled and highly productive labor force in future. They are not increasing the production of goods and services that will improve the living standard for the average Russian. Instead, they make old technology weapons and send a big chunk of their productive labor potential to their deaths in Ukraine. Well done Putin, you really transformed the lives of Russians
They could have an incredible country with a truly booming economy, phenomenal infrastructure, schools, hospitals, housing, everything. All would benefit. All would live in peace and interact with the rest of the world. But no .. vast corruption in their govt destroys this and a madman dictator with crazy imperialistic dreams turns Russia into a hell hole. It seems it’s always that way with Russia. Idk how the Russian people put up with it.
If you believe the IMF, I have a nice harbour bridge to sell you. The IMF and the World Bank couldn't forecast the weather, let alone what will happen in the world economy. Show these people the respect they deserve: NIL
Thank you for this analysis.
A good, crisp, and clear explanation of your position. Thank you for helping us to better understand what is happening. 😊
One other point that you failed to ascribe to the so called 'war economy' is that the state which is directly funding this economy has limited funds. Sooner rather than later, the cash will simply run out. At current rates of expenditure, it has been estimated by some economists that the state reserves will last only for another six months.
Russia's economy is based on packs of lies and its hard to determine the full extent of its shortcomings and the way it will bend things to make it fit, even by reducing pensions, disability, healthcare etc., it has greatly reduced the prison budget for example, it would be better that the West puts Russia down for two more years at this rate of war effort to help sustain Ukraine's funding and equipment required during this time, this will also coincide with the time approximately that Russia's Soviet Stock Piles will be depleted, hopefully it will only last six months but we have to be realistic for Ukraine's sake, we do not want another funding gap, and even if Russia is booted out then the borders need securing with strong land defences and air defences!?!
Reuters published an article in january claiming RU could even afford an oil price of 60usd for some years before they run out of cash. They seem to have reduced social spending very much and tried to balance the budget. I really have no knowledge if this assessment is correct, and the article might be flawed because there could be many "hidden" budgets and the drone strikes had no impact yet. I guess Ukraine needs to step up the refinery strikes much much more to knock down the war economy.
In all fairness Joe has pointed out again and again that the war economy depletes the state's reserves. And apart from that, it kills the regular economy leaving the country in a very tough position once the war ends. It is easier to conserve your clients than gain new ones.
@@hessidave China and India were buying more crude though back in January plus the latest Russian block on exporting refined oil products hadn't started. That forecast would be very much revised downwards now. Even with reducing social spending the vast increase in military production is eating into Russian cash reserves, we just don't know how fast they are being used up.
different from afghanistan in the '80s,now xi jinping is there to give a hand if needed...so the war economy could handle a decade easily...
Thanks
I learned from the Enforcer last night that 60% of Russia's economy is dependent on oil and gas. And one of their major companies that produce that 60% got hit by a drone! One of those factories alone provides 7% of 60% by its lonesome!
A simple look at the data shows that it's only 20-30% of the economy
@@antony6799 thanks. Now that I think about it one company doing all that is almost impossible.
@@antony6799 oil is the only money maker for russia right now. if you think russia produces anything else the world is buying you are not in touch with reality. when russia lost eu as an energy customer, the russians lost 51 percent of their energy gdp to eu by pipeline over night. no small number of ships can make up that volume in sales. the transit time by pipeline is 2 days max, versus a ship which can be weeks or a month to get back to port to reload.
in terms of gas 82 percent of russian gas went to eu by pipeline. russia cant sell that excess now to anyone else cuz there are no pipelines that can handle that volume. there is a chinese pipeline but its already operating at full capacity.
You really surprised me with Magic Spoon!
A good example of using a [relatively] advantageous rise was Trump saying during the 2020 election that the Dow Jones had had its greatest rise that year under his watch. Well, technically yes, it went up, but after a disastrous dive due to Covid early in the year. When he was making that statement, the Dow had not yet rebounded to its pre-covid level, but trying to implicate things were just great belied the longer trend - just like you point out with GDP.
Yeah, we call it cherry picking.
are you trying to compare the russian economic gdp that was 1.9 trillion before the war and likely 900 billion and shrinking now to the american economy that is diversified and has a 20 trillion a year economic gdp? is that what you are trying to do?
Joe Thanks for posting this video
US grew 17% in 1941 and had a drop of 11% in 1946
the americans have a diversified economy, the russians dont.
Good explanation, Joe, and thanks for doing the math for those of not so gifted in that area. Cheers from Canada.
17% interest rates are NOT a sign of great financial health everywhere else in the world
in the 80s US had interest rates higher than 17%
@@mrjerzheel and a major market correction too.
@@mrjerzheel yes but that was because of the mid east oil embargo. they were deliberately trying to slow the world economies and drop the oil price as well as american inflation which they did. it dropped oil to 10 dollars a barrel in the mid 80's. its also why the ussr went bankrupt in 1990.
you cant compare russian economic gdp to american also. russia doesnt have a diversified economy like the americans. and americans have a 20 trillion dollar a year economy. i believe russian economic gdp before war was only 1.9 trillion, and now its likely 900 billion and shrinking. other than oil and a few other commodities, russia doesnt produce anything the world wants. its why russia has a cash flow problem now and their budget is in deficit with putin having used up the russian reserve fund he built up over 8 years. its why the rouble has lost value last 6 months because putin is printing roubles to finance his war in ukraine now. its why the russian economy is on the clock now as inflation rises from putin printing roubles to finance his war.
Danke!
The experts call it the Base Effects
when they stopped reporting using accepted methods, changed finance ministers till they got one that would cover it up, you couldn't have any other outcome.
Given a choice between Russia with a GDP of just under $2T economy and Canada's just over $2T economy, I think it is obvious where one would want to live.
Canada is an overrated dump, most immigrants are leaving now
russia had an economic gdp before war of 1.9 trillion. russian economic gdp likely 900 billion now and shrinking. besides putin used up his reserve fund and put the russian budget into deficit. last 6 months putin has been printing roubles to finance his war the way the rouble weakened. russian economy on the clock as inflation climbs higher as putin prints more roubles.
@@giovanni-ed7zq Wrong. The Russian national wealth fund only declined by about $20B over the last year. It STILL has about $135B to work with. This isn't over yet.
It also matters that all the investments in the war economy are (largely) not productive investments. Once the investments have been spent, the funds are gone and will not have contributed to growth in the future.
The riussians are hoping, if everyone thinks they are well, support for Ukraine will stop.
The bigger question is who calculates Russian GDP & in what currency? How does Russia lose most of its enormous European gas markets, much of its refined products exports & so many of its oil markets that is has to hugely discount its oil exports + reductions in almost all of its other export markets & post any economic growth? Spending reserves is not real economic growth. It is like so much of China's GDP growth is related to its massive debt financed infrastructure & construction markets to create huge quantities of empty buildings + government controlled GDP calculations. Also real inflation adjusted GDP would tell the more true story.
Why does the IMF of all organizations put out such BOGUS headlines ? Unprofessional !
Thanks for being the PRO in the room, JoeBlogs !!
You misunderstood, it's the *mainstream media* that published these headlines. The IMF and other organizations just publish the data...
Thanks Joe. Excellent treatment of the subject.
This is similar to two family members getting a raise. One gets a 5% raise and the other gets a 2% raise. The 5% looks good on paper until you see that is someone making $10.00 and hour and the 2% raise is someone making $35.00 an hour.
Gazprom looks like they are now in difficulty it has just been reported.
GDP growth is a good measure of economic success in a free market, but under socialism or other interventionist economies, it tell you nothing beyond how much money the government is spending. That's why dictatorships like Nazi Germany and Mao's China initially seemed to be doing well for the first five to ten years, despite the fact that their economies were severely weakening.
It's easier to tell it this way: after a 50% drop, you need to grow by *100%* just to get back to where you started.
😮The size of the Russian economy = that of Spain.
Just a large country with a lot of old weapons.
But 70% of gdp is used for war.
Russia is a very large country with vast mineral/natural resource wealth
@@mrjerzheel but the resource sector is very capital intensive and often high tech.
Russia lacks both to sustain its oil industry. Especially with the challenges posed by the climate there.
@@somethinglikethat2176you need to stop smoking crack cocaine😂
@@mrjerzheel 67 percent of russian households outside of the cities dont even have running toilets. regardless the russian economy is heavily sanctioned now. putin used up the reserve fund and put the russian budget into deficit so the russians have negative cash flow. its why the rouble weakened last 6 months because putin was printing roubles to pay for his war. so with inflation, the russian economy is now on borrowed time and on the clock.
@@lowdpacks7874 no actually its reality. the russian oil and gas industry was run on western technology and expertise. when the western companies left they could no longer get parts. its why russian oil production is dropping because they cant replace the broken or worn parts. in addition those limited refineries ukraine hitting in russia , well its likely russia cant repair those because they cant get western parts. also creates a bottleneck of russian crude and they either have to sell at deeper discounts to chinese and indians at 40-50 percent or they have to shut off the pumping of crude at their wells.
GDP RUSSIA 2023 = 1.8 trilion
GDP TEXAS 2023 = 2.5 trilions
The most fun thing about Magicspoon is that you can watch your favourite youtoubers - grown up men - eat cereal. 😆👍
Love your terrapin! The world is a wonderful place!
Russia's poor growth in 2014 and 2015 was arguably more about low crude oil prices than the relatively lax sanctions.
I don't think so. If you look at the total nominal GDP in 2015 compared to 2013, it almost halved... from $2.3 trillion in '13 to $1.3 trillion in '15, acc to the IMF. So there must've been a strong Ruble devaluation. (however, the PPP-adjusted value was much less affected)
@@dyawr Look at the crude oil prices. In mid-2014 it was like $130 a barrel, while in 2015 as low as $48! To my understanding, this had a bigger impact on Russian economy than the sanctions (which only affected the growth by 0.5% or so, as far as I remember the calculations by some experts).
@@joojoojeejee6058 the difference now is putin used up his russian reserve fund and put the russian budget into deficit. and putin is printing roubles to finance his war in ukraine for a good 6 months at least the way the rouble weakened.
Thanks!
So why is the IMF churning out such nonsense? Thanks for the clarification. Very fascinating!
Probably to keep the Russians to Bury their heads on the sand while making the West wake up from the slumber because that momentary "advantage" of Russia can still affect the outcome of the Ukraine War.
Not bothering to go deep enough. Just people doing their job but not being more conscientious than they need to be for their salary
IMF just publishes data. Media then squawks like chickens getting feed.
@@carolwilliams8511 If the IMF starts calling people liars, they've taken a side in a fight when they want to be an arbiter providing guidance and perspective to the international community. I doubt economists there are just looking for a paycheck.
GDP growth, is GFP growth, which is all they are tracking.
Could this be the calm before the storm????? Stay posted!!!!
When will we see the direct effects of the manpower shortage?
We are already seeing it in increased numbers of companied going bankrupt this year over last year and decreases in oil and gas production....decreases in exports, shortages of labour at factories etc etc
That was great, thank you.
US’s share of the world economy has actually grown in recent years, as China, Russia, Japan and Europe all tank.
It’s more to do with the US dollar strengthening, so naturally the US economy will become a larger share. In GDP PPP growth, Europe’s growth has been pretty much equivalent to the US. Saying economies are tanking if the US dollar strengthens is not accurate.
Well done, sir!
Is it worse than the last 12 times you talked about it?
Thanks buddy 😊. Keep it up 👍
Inb4 the botskis and Vatniks.
FU too😁
@@StPiter111🥔
@@ArKritz84 I prefer Crimean exclusive champagne and fresh strawberry 😁
@@StPiter111 You knew he was talking about you hahahha
@@StPiter111 " Crimean exclusive champagne "
Classic gopnik. Champagne can by definition only come from the district of Champagne in France, literally.
Gazprom just announced a €6.38 billion (629 Billion Rubles) loss for 2023. Russia's share of Global GDP is also declining, from 3.7% to 2.9% between 2008-2024. It's expected to keep declining to 2.71% by 2029. You don't need to be an expert to see that Russia's revanchism has completely flopped.
Western share of global GDP is also decreasing dummy, as Asia and Africa grow, the share of big economies drops
Thank you Joe.
It seems this channel is shadow banned, I really need to search the channel to know there's an update even though I'm subscribed.
Just subscribe?
Eh do you know how subscriptions work?
I am always getting the notifications of updates. Does it depend where people live perhaps?
It’s in my feed.
nah you need to check that you are not only subscribed but also have selected to receive regular updates. You need to click on the subscribed button and make sure notifications are not set to "none"
17:24 we should think in "GDP per capita", not in "GDP" alone...
Am I right in thinking that how a country achieved growth is not taken into account in GDP figures, ie growth could be paid for by spending national savings or by borrowing? Russia spent 20 years accumulating a national wealth fund. If the war and GDP is being funded by using the savings, there could be a cliff edge when those savings run out. Yesterday one YT channel stated Gazprom had now declared it was operating at a loss, not a profit, a sign of problems ahead?
The Russian pundits on RT domestic broadcasts recently have been talking about Russia is really at war with the west, and was thinking in terms of that war continuing through to at least 2030. China is thought to consider 2027 as a date by which China could go to war over Taiwan. It is speculated that if China goes to war over Taiwan, Russia could time its expansion of war in Europe to take advantage of America's commitment to the Indo Pacific.
Unless Russia is soundly defeated or goes bankrupt, I think the military spending will aim to be continued to modernise and rebuild Russia's military far beyond any ceasefire in Ukraine. The USSR built huge stocks of weapons, year upon year since WW2, which is how Russia has been able to sustain its current high losses of equipment. If Putin is still in power, I think he will aim to continue the USSR philosophy regarding the military.
You are right.
GDP is gross domestic production.
How that growth is achieved is not a consideraton. Nor is whether the gdp is actually part of the local economy.
As an example a lot of the gdp growth in Africa is actually foreign multinationals extracting natural resources, with a fragment of that wealth going to the locals.
They're already using up their post WWII stocks. They've been using mid century tanks in Ukraine since last year.
If NATO actually took the Russia threat seriously (they don't) and really threw their political and economic weight behind preparing for war, they could completely eclipse anything Russia is capable of.
Russia is on 100% war footing. NATO hasn't even bothered to dust off its boxing gloves yet.
Problem for russia is many fold; 1) Sanctions are cutting its imports and exports....and its ability to manufacture, and secondary sanctions are now cutting off the loopholes they had been using. 2) russia spent most of its wealth fund at the end of 2023 paying off last years deficit, as well as a big chunk of money they had in chinese banks and their gold reserves, so their piggybank is almost empty. and 3) the large stockpiles of weapons from the last 40 years has already been used up. Anything from 1945-1955 is useless, and old ammo has a high failure rate. russia isnt making new tanks, it is refurbishing older tanks that were stored, but due to lack of proper maintenance dont work anymore....meaning they have to replace parts and spend more money on an old tank they already paid for. With over half of russia tanks and armoured vehicles already destroyed they are scraping the bottom of the barrel now. With black market items from china and turkey being sanctioned as well as any 3rd party countries, there is less and less for russia to work with, just as ukraine is getting larger military aid packages, with newer, more accurate, more long distance and more lethal weapons and ammo. russia is going bankrupt AND being defeated at the same time.
@@jtf2dan I'm in agreement with your projection except for the time, I think Russia has a year left in National Wealth Fund and in stored equipment, although Ukraine looks like it is accelerating the economic decline through hitting the refineries.
Excellent presentation.
Per Capita figures show how poor Russia really is.
Ppp per capita is where the real truth is at
@@antony6799 It's not doing great there either... For example, it's only above Bulgaria in the EU.
@@dyawr But they are still growing faster than the West currently, so the gap will reduce, Germany and UK are growing at 0% while Russia is growing at 3% last year and this year
@@antony6799 Sir, *why don't u watch the video?* It precisely explains this very well. Russia *is not* growing faster than the West, on the contrary, the gap between it & Western countries is increasing. For example, this year it's simply bouncing back from last year's recession, that's why its growth rate is higher...
@@dyawr The video ignores a lot of factors that could have benefited Russia's economy, like the demographic boost of 7 million new Russia speaking citizens that they got from Eastern Ukraine, even if you account for the deaths, Russia is now significantly better demographically than they were in 2022, exports have also increased beyond pre war levels
You forgot to talk about the inflation rate and interest rate.
Joe eating fukin frootloops, best thing ever!😂
@@KingCold1986 Did you delete?
@@gnrseanra9070 delete what?
In fact GdP growth without context says nothing at all!
If you only look at GDP, then you’re only looking at a small portion of the equation. This is one of the biggest problems with a western countries. It’s an accounting problem, that means you can’t just look at income, you also have to look at debt / expenses. Russia beats all of those countries.
Joe I like how you mentioned how many paetreon supporters other UA-camrs like you have, that may prompt some to help support you, since many people rally around their favorites and want to see them on top!
😂🥳🎉🎊🎉🎊
This IMF report is further example of its incompetance.
USA is Screwed.. FJB.
It is always good for America when the Russians are angry and yelling about how .such they hate the US president.
This chart shows my appreciation for good content on this channel 📈
Nice lesson in stat. Enjoyed
Joe would you mind doing a video about the current state of the polish economy and how the war is affecting it? That would be interesting
I did not expect Matr McMucles and Joe Blogs to share a sponsor
Absolutely agree. The IMF is giving a forecast for political reasons.
I believe there's more to this analysis.
1st, using year 0 as a starting point, with a 5% drop in GDP in year 1, then growth in year 2 must be ça 5.5% to get to the same level as year 0. The calculation isn't linear.
Second, depending on the source, Russian military spending is between 6% and 7.6% of GDP IN 2024 (ca 40% of the central government budget), and only the multiplier effect of higher salaries offered by the defence industry will reach the average consumer. Ammunition and other war materièl is produced and quickly destroyed.
Hence, consumer welfare is actually reduced by at least 3%.
And don't forget that most of the goods that are counting as production is just being destroyed in Ukraine without adding anything to their economy.