Appreciate all your discussions!! I am not in the medical field - just a grandma - and would appreciate anyone here to comment. If indeed it is still the facts that 80% who get COVID19 will either be the asymptomatic or mild case; 20% showing more symptoms of which 5% severe cases. And, if the vulnerable group is still the 60 plus elder age plus of course those younger who may have preconditions than my question is this: vaccines are for the elderly, medical staff and those with preconditions who may be younger: but for the majority in the 80% bracket, they do not need to get the vaccine for if they even get COVID19 they may never know it ... COVID19 is unlike many other viruses as it is relatively selective in age group compared to annual flu which impacts all ages. Why are we applying one shoe fit all when this is not the case.
Although all reasons mentioned for falling death rate are valid, surely the main reason is that early in the pandemic, as the pandemic swept through Europe, the number of cases represented such a minute percentage of the actual infections and therefore case fatality rate was way over estimated. Only people presenting at hospitals with serious disease were being tested. Data from UK suggests that actual infections were in excess of 200,000 per day although reported cases were only approx 8,000. With subsequent screen testing, a much higher percentage of infections are now being detected.
Hospital personal also have more experience on how to treat people diagnosed with COVID-19 after working with COVID-19 patients for months. Dexamethason as anti-inflamatory medication, low-molecular Heparin as anti-coagulation and just admittance of Oxigen while only as a last resort putting patients on ventilators have caused a major decline in deathrates. But yes, if we can learn anything from this debacle is that we should not trust in models that easy. It are models for a reason and models pretty much never describe true reality, because of not understood or misunderstood mechanisms in the real world. They can be used as a fun tools for education or for very, very simple and small subjects. Never for state, country of world wide modelling.
I agree. Using IFR = 0.4 - 0.5 and the current case rate 2,500/d yields a death rate of 10/d. Similar calculations hold true for Spain and France. Unfortunately, although building from a low base the death rate is climbing exponentially, with a doubling rate of just over a week. We could see death rates similar to those seen in April in 3 -4 weeks, with France following with a 2 week lag and the UK with a 3 - 4 week lag. This could be exacerbated by schools and universities re-opening. (Data from our world in data 7-day rolling average).
@@christopherrobinson7541 Schools and universities have been open for several months now in Switzerland and were never closed in Sweden. We don't see any increase in fatality in these countries. All we can see in the data is a case-demic, because of extensive testing. The same case-demic we saw in 2009 in the Netherlands after the 'deadly' Mexican flu was announced. It turned out to be the mildest flu season recorded up to that date. Modelling predicted that thousands of Dutchies would die of the Mexican Flu. The Dutch bought 34 million hastily created vaccines, that gave a significant number of people Narcolepsy as a long term side-effect. The Dutch government had to pay millions of Euros to the victims and their families years later. The last case was settled only a few years ago. In the end around 600 people died, where normally in a flu season between an extra 2500 to 3500 deaths occur in the Netherlands... Test more and you will find more... The world has never tested for a virus on such a huge scale during our entire human history. But history has a tendency to repeat itself. Remember the 2009 Mexican flu and you know where this is going...
@@jimkasson6339 No I am not. CFR = deaths/cases and IFR = deaths/infected. CFR is prone to errors due to lack of testing and hence not identifying cases. IFR uses an estimation of those infected by serology. During the pandemic it can only be estimated. The true IFR can be calculated once it is over by counting the actual deaths and those actually infected. Over the next few weeks we should be able to confirm that the estimates I have used for IFR are correct. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) currently estimate IFR = 0.3%, which I think is a little too. The key statistics to watch are the doubling rates for cases and deaths and the rate at which the doubling rate falls.
Fascinating presentation by Manglik on how the AeroNabs team has carefully designed and structured their man-made molecules to block the viral cell spikes. BTW, their team is now in active discussions with commercial partners to ramp up manufacturing and clinical testing of AeroNabs. Keeping fingers crossed.
@@Rach1941 it really didnt sound like they had considered chemical toxicity and "incidental" effects, and certainly not long term effects of having these nabs around. some of our normal body cell functions require viral-like interactions
@tzipporah batami i dont think they are getting their aeronabs from llamas. they were just using llamas as an example of a species that has nano-blockers. i would be worried about chimpanzee adenovirus vaccines causing some unintended consequence.
I share Dr Gandhi's enthusiasm for masking, but to push back a bit. I have heard that even asymptomatic cases of Covid-19 can have lungs seen on CT and x-ray showing damaged lungs and/or the so-called Covid pneumonia.
@@ms-jl6dl That is fantastic. Not ALL lungs show ground-glass opacities. Don't think it deserves the "nothing to see tag." But it's a free world, I guess.
If everyone takes vitamin d until levels are mid range 60ng/ml, zinc, quercitin and vitamin c, you shouldn't have to be worrying about those lungs. It is doctors who are doing nothing when when patients are first infected that are allowing the damage to occur in the first place. I wish I understood the mental condition that afflicts doctors.
I'd like to know if most or all countries are using the same testing methods outside of the distinction of testing everyone as opposed to just symptomatic people. Is the familiar nasal probe that we see here n America being used universally to test ?
Could the lower fatality rate be due to the decrease in vitamin D deficiency in the northern hemisphere populations that normally accompanies the summer months and the beneficial effect of greater sun exposure?
Anyone that is interested in actual science would understand the path to the quickest end to this pandemic with the least amount of casualties is through acquired antibody T-cell immunization, not by wearing masks and compulsive hand sanitizing. Dr David Katz understands and explains epidemiology and it's effects and patterns better than any epidemiologist speaking out today . (MPIE) mass population immunization by exposure (herd immunity) is the only way low level virulence / high contagious types of viruses ever come to an end, through virulence dilution by infection saturation through out the healthy population. This is absolutely nothing new however and is precisely how all these outbreaks have ever ended. History dictates that a vaccine will not be effective for SARS-COV-2, as they have never been effective for any Cor/viruses or flu for that matter due to the rapid antigenic shift (mutating) properties within the viral RNA polymerase Ribosome's replication system deep inside the cells nucleus. By the time a vaccine is developed and tested the viral RNA genomic blueprint will have altered just enough to make the vaccines effectiveness nullified and useless and round it goes with microbiologists/chemists always playing this dog chasing it's own tail catch up game with a perpetually error prone mutating and weakening virus. The risk and damage with this virus by all the evidence and numbers is incredibly low and it is long overdue time for the world leaders to acknowledge this epidemiological fact and reality, instead of this constant round and round cycle from the community of infectious disease experts and media trying desperately to remain relevant and prove to the world they were right. ua-cam.com/video/urCPH8W2M4Y/v-deo.html
Just a thought how about temperature? I might have missed it but nobody seems to raise the question if the warmer weather conditions (summer) might also have played a role in the reduction of viral load inoculations. From a scientific point of view It will be interesting to observe what is going to happen as winter kicks in and people will spend more time indoors.
I'm a little surprised that Dr. Rutherford took uncritically the research alleging 260,000 cases attributable to the Sturgis Rally. This was not peer-reviewed. South Dakota itself recorded a spike of about 600 cases following this event, but this may partly reflect increased testing. It is difficult to see how the figures in the study can be justified.
Especially as the 'study" was completely blasted once actual peer reviewed. Disappointing! and they lose credibility when uncritically accepting GARBAGE like this
Yeah, but these fools believe it, hook, line, and sinker! In medicine it's anchoring error. They anchor on bikers being dumb rubes, when that's actually them!
Eric: Unless they hid very well. People need to remember that physicians have warned new retirees for decades that ceasing active living and just sitting on the sofa and resting in retirement produces a life expectancy of 6 months. It is the same with those over 80 who break a limb and start staying home, resting on the sofa to heal. Their life expectancy is 6 months. For those during the pandemic who went into hiding in March and who have been resting on the sofa and not persuing an active exercise plan, 6 months are rapidly passing. Hopefully, those who went into hiding in March and have been having supplies delivered to their door have found some physical exercise since to prevent their cardiovascular system from shutting down too fast and too far. Shifting from an active lifestyle to a passive lifestyle can be done, but it has to be done gradually. Physicians have been saying for years that the minimum level of physical activity required to promote health is walking around the block once a day. Housewifery is not an exception. Homemakers have been documented as walking 10 miles a day while doing their chores.
@@crusindc5282 Not true for all couch sitters or bedridden. Know quite a few in their 70s and 80s who lived for many years with plenty of comorbidiities AND unable to walk a few feet. One in her mid 80s lived to her 90s could not walk even a few inches. There's plenty more of them; but usually not discussed that much. It's not their will to live or eating a healthy diet or being surrounded by family, so probably more genetics.
Yes, summer. What about summer?! Good point. Also, what about previous infections - do they confer possible protection? I work with mostly homeless people - people who've had a ton of previous infections. We are pretty rigorous with the mask wearing. But overall, few infections and those who got infected before they came to us, recovered well. (More than one has said they thought they got the infection AT the hospital.)
Ivor Cummins (data-analist and engineer) explains it perfectly in the link I post here: ua-cam.com/video/FU3OibcindQ/v-deo.html&ab_channel=IvorCummins The disease followed a seasonal trend. It did not matter to the outcome (in fatality) what harsh, severe or mild lockdown measures were taken between the different European countries. Our politicians are suffering a delusion of grandeur, when they claim their lockdown measures saved lives. The only diseases that dropped significantly down, were STD's... People had less loose sexual contact during the lockdown...
30: UV rays in sunlight. One of New York City's challenges is the vast canyons between skyscrapers where the sunlight barely reaches , so that the U V rays are unable to cleanse the sidewalks. One article mentioned that being airborne results in SARS2 eventually falling to the ground or floor, where it is picked up on shoes and taken home to be deposited on the carpeting. Once on the home carpeting, SARS2 can be picked up on pet fur and also on clothes, if adults it children survive okay in the floor. People were advised to remove their shoes upon entering their home.
Could the aeronabs be used to spray in a patient room when the pt has a high viral load and or is receiving aerosolizing treatments? Plus could people who can't get vaccines (Cancer and other immune suppressed patients) to protect them? And lastly what happens if you're allergic?
There are nightly gatherings of everyone off of work all over California where I live. Parties with music, Casinos, not to mention all the homeless and social rights movements.
I don't have any medical background, but am an engineer with a special interest in mathematics. If you just compare the COVID-19 new cases vs deaths between the US and UK, this observation is correct that the death rate is down stable despite the new surging cases. However, if you look at numbers for India and Brazil, the death rates are still proportional to the new case numbers. These four countries are very interesting to observe since they're fairly big in size and major COVID-19 suffering regions. Also, two of them have medical infrastructures while the other two don't. It seems that the new cases are more directly related to prevention measures each country adopts and the death rates are to their ability to treat the patients effectively. It'll be interesting to locate a country or two that shows what happens if both prevention measures and medical infrastructures are present and work well together. There are few countries in that happy category and no, Sweden is not one of them. It's Singapore, New Zealand, Taiwan, and South Korea. Their accumulated total cases, new cases, and death rates are unbelievably low; to the point of making the flu being 5 times more lethal than COVID-19.
The Aeronabs research sounds fascinating-- but the first question that comes to mind is, there's more than one spike protein on a Sars-Cov12 molecule, is there not? If so, to what extent is the viral replication/spread impaired if not *all* of the spike proteins on a given virus molecule are bound to an Aeronab?
@tzipporah batami I don't get what you're saying. Is there only one spike on a Sars-Cov12 molecule, or like all the pictures I've seen, it's covered with them? And if it's covered with them, do you have to block each and every spike with a separate Aeronab, or every other one, or 50% of them, etc., or what, to be effective? If you only block ONE spike with an Aeronab, isn't that virus molecule still able to attach to ACE2 via one of its other spikes?
Reduction of "raw" case fatality rate in the summer could be due to better detection of cases, especially asymptomatic and mild cases (both in young and older people). Masking may be a factor, but I would not consider this to be proven until other changes between spring and summer have been ruled out or quantified with regard to their effect on the actual infection fatality rate.
What about the risk of SARS-CoV-2 aerosol transmission enhancement by cigarette/cigar/pipe smoke micro/nanoparticles, or by such from other combustion processes (including ritual incense usage too) contributing in a kind of vectorial way? If such pathway, one maybe could explain the higher indoor infection probability as well as such pretty high one (not easily understood super spreading situation) outside in the open.
Franz: Indoor dynamics have been readily explained by SHOES. SARS2, being airborne, eventually falls to the ground or to the floors in businesses. From there, they are picked up by shoes. When people reach home and walk around on their carpeting, SARS2 deposits on the carpeting. From there it can be picked up by pets, by children playing on the carpeting, and by adults who sit on the floor, etc. People were advised to remove their shoes at the door of their home.
@@crusindc5282 Thanks. As to the retarded, indirect dynamics alone, your shoes-statement certainly is correct. But considering the viral flux/load, the aerosol pathway seems to be the direct and dominant one. Contact infection (apart from such in Covid-19 ICUs and other hospital/medical sites) is known to be a subdominant route, at least for severe outcomes.
Vitamin D is NOT really a vitamin and a functional immune system is important. If one believes insulin can lower blood sugar, why can’t one believe that the hormone Vitamin D can help a functioning immune system. Both are hormones and have profound effects on the body.
What does she mean “we didn’t know about masking?!” We’ve used masking in Medicine for over one hundred years by now. Now, were you to wait for the perfect EBM paper on masking, you would still be not wearing a mask...
not only that, we knew specifically that masking was working to lower transmission in China for SARS-nCOV-2. what seems new is that disease severity is lower or asymptomatic with lower dose due to masking
We've used masking in Medicine for over one hundred years by now to prevent unnecessary infections in already vulnerable patients. It was in the majority of the situations NOT to protect the healthcare workers themselves. The exemptions are for the personal working with diagnosed and positive tested, sick, symptomatic patients on infectious disease departments. In this case we would only wear medical masks and not NON-medical masks that are now being used and promoted worldwide for some unscientific and unmedical reason. They simply do not work and it has somehow become like a religious believe that these NON-medical masks somehow magically work and prevent infections. All data collected over one hundred years of medical mask wearing, gives a protective percentage between 14% to max 17%. For non-medical masks, there simply is zero evidence that they work. There is actually some small (not conclusive evidence, so more research is needed) that these non-medical masks might work contra dictionary. To protect the healthcare workers from numerous infectious diseases, we use vaccines and common sense hygienic measures. We are not allowed to wear jewelry during our work (bacteria, viruses and fungi hide on the surface of jewelry and can spread around that way). We wash our hands with hand-alcohol after every patient room we visit (all patients in the same room are considered to have already infected each other by being in the same room and living together). We even have policies to make sure you have short cut nails, because bacteria, viruses and fungi can hide under dirty nails and cause spread. As for vaccines, I had to take for example Tuberculosis & Hepatitis C vaccines to even be able to start as an intern in hospitals. Not only to protect me, but also to protect vulnerable patients who would get infected by me if I somehow got infected by another patient or colleague with Tuberculosis or Hepatitis C. I would drag it through the entire hospital. Infecting colleagues, who on their turn would infect more patients and colleagues.
Actually East Asian nation got a lot of experience with masks during Sars. I watched interviews with head of S. Korea and Taiwan health depts, both claimed only N95 or KN95 masks were at all effective.
@@rh001YT effective at doing what? if your goal is not spreading disease at all, N95 might be the answer. if your goal is spreading asymptomatic COVID19 (aka immunity to SARS-nCov-2) then plebian masks seem to be the answer.
I'm wondering 1. Why there needs to a vaccine at all, if universal masking can can be a "poor man's vaccine"? 2. If universal masking drops dose levels and leads to herd immunity, can we simply continue with masking? I understand the medical community and public health entities develop policy based on data. 3. Have we collected enough data to say we do not actually need a vaccine or at the very least a very small proportion of the population really needs a vaccine?
Jennifer Winsor at first I thought the same thing, but I think we are finding there are long-term neurological effects so avoiding any infection would be better than surviving mild infection. Like shingles from childhood affect adults much later, we don’t know how surviving even mild COVID 19 might really damage or shorten people’s lives.
Jennifer: Do you really want the 4 or 5 year version of the pandemic? How long do you imagine full penetration of SARS2 would take? Epidemiologists say 4 years. Bill Gates mentioned 5.
What about fecal spray from party people overusing small number of toilets over and over and over again? Fecal infection lingers for months. Sturgis bikers use indoor bathrooms.
Saying that there’s been a very small amount of reinfections in these last months, and then postulating it won’t happen more and more (in a scenario representing a risk of exponential nature) is committing the Thanksgiving day turkey fallacy.
@@ghwk-phd2784 if they admit the actual mortality rate is low and stop the lockdown/masking, they would have to spend more money on treatment for the increased numbers that do get infected non-mildly. experience has already shown they dont want the short term expense nor to increase the capacity of hospitals.
@@hank-uh1zq No, I did see that, but I think that saying that "noone is dying" when in fact hundreds are dying is wrong. And then to put the lower case-to-death ratio down to HCQ when it is adequately explained by the four factors Doctor Gandhi explained I consider to be equally wrong. AG3NT came across as yet another true believer in HCQ.
With the death rate so low amongst kids and students and they it wouldn't be better to get it from asymptomatic people to produce more herd immunity that deaths amongst college and grade schools and regular school is low
david flavin I just said to another person, that for sure my first reaction was the same, but I think we are finding there are long-term neurological effects so avoiding any infection would be better than surviving mild infection. Like shingles from childhood affect adults much later, we don’t know how surviving even mild COVID 19 might really damage health or shorten people’s lives.
David: And each child's death breaks it's mothers heart. You have kids you are willing to throw away to achieve herd immunity? Most parents will protect their children first and foremost and let the herd fend for itself.
The fires are terrible and due to climate change in addition huge reduction of Forests plus Interspersed mass water dousing stations through forest areas in huge cleared areas is essential .
data "suggests transmission is driven by a relatively small number of high-risk, close contacts"....that means sexual activity...prolonged very close contact and heavy breathing. Worldometer coronavirus page, sorted by deaths, clearly shows, with a few exceptions, that nations (because of their culture) with less promiscuity (pre-marital, extra-marital and gay sex) have lowest death rates. Sort on death rate because nations vary too much on testing. Islamic and Asian cultures (but not India) all have low death rates. No factor links the low death rate nations/cultures except for sex activity. They differ in pop density, mass transportation, diet, race/ethnicity, industrialization, climate, etc. And it is clear from the death rate sort that nations with highest death rate are the sexually liberated nations.
@@crusindc5282 As far as nursing homes go, neither Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan or Singapore experienced the nursing home calamities experienced by some of the Western developed nations. CV19 most likely entered the Western nursing homes via the staff some of whom were likely sexually promiscuous and patients, already with various illnesses were not able to fend off cv19. Also early on the staff in the nursing homes were not wearing masks all the time like they are now. My sister is a hospital admin and organized all the stuff needed for massive hospitalization that never came. She then was assigned to help solve the nursing home problem at one of the hospital chains' nursing home. She and other experts determined by testing staff that CV19 was definitely entering via the staff. The staff was mostly Filipino and Latino and that nursing home served a lower income demographic. My sister's daughter is an admin at an elder care home...they're not all that sick and ill, just dementia, difficulty walking and dressing, stuff like that. No CV19 deaths there. It's an elder care home that serves a high income community, probably mostly Republican. My neice is not sexually promiscuous. I've not yet had a chance to ask her about the make up of the staff.
I was looking forward to this but when you said Climate Change for the cause of CA fires, and not arson and poor forest management, you lost me. Good bye.
Any updates on AeroNabs?
Dr. Aashish Manglik’s idea about Aeronabs is very novel, very bright and very practical. Wish all the best on the Project.
Always great to watch!
Appreciate all your discussions!! I am not in the medical field - just a grandma - and would appreciate anyone here to comment. If indeed it is still the facts that 80% who get COVID19 will either be the asymptomatic or mild case; 20% showing more symptoms of which 5% severe cases. And, if the vulnerable group is still the 60 plus elder age plus of course those younger who may have preconditions than my question is this: vaccines are for the elderly, medical staff and those with preconditions who may be younger: but for the majority in the 80% bracket, they do not need to get the vaccine for if they even get COVID19 they may never know it ... COVID19 is unlike many other viruses as it is relatively selective in age group compared to annual flu which impacts all ages. Why are we applying one shoe fit all when this is not the case.
Although all reasons mentioned for falling death rate are valid, surely the main reason is that early in the pandemic, as the pandemic swept through Europe, the number of cases represented such a minute percentage of the actual infections and therefore case fatality rate was way over estimated. Only people presenting at hospitals with serious disease were being tested. Data from UK suggests that actual infections were in excess of 200,000 per day although reported cases were only approx 8,000. With subsequent screen testing, a much higher percentage of infections are now being detected.
Hospital personal also have more experience on how to treat people diagnosed with COVID-19 after working with COVID-19 patients for months. Dexamethason as anti-inflamatory medication, low-molecular Heparin as anti-coagulation and just admittance of Oxigen while only as a last resort putting patients on ventilators have caused a major decline in deathrates.
But yes, if we can learn anything from this debacle is that we should not trust in models that easy. It are models for a reason and models pretty much never describe true reality, because of not understood or misunderstood mechanisms in the real world. They can be used as a fun tools for education or for very, very simple and small subjects. Never for state, country of world wide modelling.
I agree. Using IFR = 0.4 - 0.5 and the current case rate 2,500/d yields a death rate of 10/d. Similar calculations hold true for Spain and France. Unfortunately, although building from a low base the death rate is climbing exponentially, with a doubling rate of just over a week. We could see death rates similar to those seen in April in 3 -4 weeks, with France following with a 2 week lag and the UK with a 3 - 4 week lag. This could be exacerbated by schools and universities re-opening.
(Data from our world in data 7-day rolling average).
@@christopherrobinson7541 Schools and universities have been open for several months now in Switzerland and were never closed in Sweden. We don't see any increase in fatality in these countries.
All we can see in the data is a case-demic, because of extensive testing. The same case-demic we saw in 2009 in the Netherlands after the 'deadly' Mexican flu was announced. It turned out to be the mildest flu season recorded up to that date. Modelling predicted that thousands of Dutchies would die of the Mexican Flu. The Dutch bought 34 million hastily created vaccines, that gave a significant number of people Narcolepsy as a long term side-effect. The Dutch government had to pay millions of Euros to the victims and their families years later. The last case was settled only a few years ago. In the end around 600 people died, where normally in a flu season between an extra 2500 to 3500 deaths occur in the Netherlands...
Test more and you will find more... The world has never tested for a virus on such a huge scale during our entire human history. But history has a tendency to repeat itself. Remember the 2009 Mexican flu and you know where this is going...
You are confusing CFR and IFR.
@@jimkasson6339 No I am not. CFR = deaths/cases and IFR = deaths/infected. CFR is prone to errors due to lack of testing and hence not identifying cases. IFR uses an estimation of those infected by serology. During the pandemic it can only be estimated. The true IFR can be calculated once it is over by counting the actual deaths and those actually infected.
Over the next few weeks we should be able to confirm that the estimates I have used for IFR are correct. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) currently estimate IFR = 0.3%, which I think is a little too.
The key statistics to watch are the doubling rates for cases and deaths and the rate at which the doubling rate falls.
I’m been waiting for this update about AeroNabs .
Fascinating presentation by Manglik on how the AeroNabs team has carefully designed and structured their man-made molecules to block the viral cell spikes. BTW, their team is now in active discussions with commercial partners to ramp up manufacturing and clinical testing of AeroNabs. Keeping fingers crossed.
@@Rach1941 it really didnt sound like they had considered chemical toxicity and "incidental" effects, and certainly not long term effects of having these nabs around. some of our normal body cell functions require viral-like interactions
@tzipporah batami i dont think they are getting their aeronabs from llamas. they were just using llamas as an example of a species that has nano-blockers. i would be worried about chimpanzee adenovirus vaccines causing some unintended consequence.
I wish we would get yet another update. I don't know why this is not popular?
Great presentation by Dr. Gandhi
Thank you for these fascinating presentations.
I share Dr Gandhi's enthusiasm for masking, but to push back a bit. I have heard that even asymptomatic cases of Covid-19 can have lungs seen on CT and x-ray showing damaged lungs and/or the so-called Covid pneumonia.
You don't use chicken wire to prevent you from mosquitoes.
I had covid on 19.may and I did an x-ray of my longs 3 weeks ago-nothing to see.
So,not true.
@@ms-jl6dl That is fantastic. Not ALL lungs show ground-glass opacities. Don't think it deserves the "nothing to see tag." But it's a free world, I guess.
If everyone takes vitamin d until levels are mid range 60ng/ml, zinc, quercitin and vitamin c, you shouldn't have to be worrying about those lungs.
It is doctors who are doing nothing when when patients are first infected that are allowing the damage to occur in the first place.
I wish I understood the mental condition that afflicts doctors.
I'd like to know if most or all countries are using the same testing methods outside of the distinction of testing everyone as opposed to just symptomatic people. Is the familiar nasal probe that we see here n America being used universally to test ?
Great work. Thanks for upload and sharing knowledge
Dr T
Could the lower fatality rate be due to the decrease in vitamin D deficiency in the northern hemisphere populations that normally accompanies the summer months and the beneficial effect of greater sun exposure?
That and they definitely know how to treat this disease a lot better now.
Anyone that is interested in actual science would understand the path to the quickest end to this pandemic with the least amount of casualties is through acquired antibody T-cell immunization, not by wearing masks and compulsive hand sanitizing.
Dr David Katz understands and explains epidemiology and it's effects and patterns better than any epidemiologist speaking out today . (MPIE) mass population immunization by exposure (herd immunity) is the only way low level virulence / high contagious types of viruses ever come to an end, through virulence dilution by infection saturation through out the healthy population. This is absolutely nothing new however and is precisely how all these outbreaks have ever ended. History dictates that a vaccine will not be effective for SARS-COV-2, as they have never been effective for any Cor/viruses or flu for that matter due to the rapid antigenic shift (mutating) properties within the viral RNA polymerase Ribosome's replication system deep inside the cells nucleus. By the time a vaccine is developed and tested the viral RNA genomic blueprint will have altered just enough to make the vaccines effectiveness nullified and useless and round it goes with microbiologists/chemists always playing this dog chasing it's own tail catch up game with a perpetually error prone mutating and weakening virus. The risk and damage with this virus by all the evidence and numbers is incredibly low and it is long overdue time for the world leaders to acknowledge this epidemiological fact and reality, instead of this constant round and round cycle from the community of infectious disease experts and media trying desperately to remain relevant and prove to the world they were right. ua-cam.com/video/urCPH8W2M4Y/v-deo.html
Is there a way to get tested for T-cell immunity for those that have already had the virus ?
Just a thought how about temperature? I might have missed it but nobody seems to raise the question if the warmer weather conditions (summer) might also have played a role in the reduction of viral load inoculations. From a scientific point of view It will be interesting to observe what is going to happen as winter kicks in and people will spend more time indoors.
Gracias por el vidéo
I'm a little surprised that Dr. Rutherford took uncritically the research alleging 260,000 cases attributable to the Sturgis Rally. This was not peer-reviewed. South Dakota itself recorded a spike of about 600 cases following this event, but this may partly reflect increased testing. It is difficult to see how the figures in the study can be justified.
Especially as the 'study" was completely blasted once actual peer reviewed. Disappointing! and they lose credibility when uncritically accepting GARBAGE like this
Yeah, but these fools believe it, hook, line, and sinker! In medicine it's anchoring error. They anchor on bikers being dumb rubes, when that's actually them!
Typical. And they wonder why folks don't trust them...
I believe that the most vulnerable have been infected earlier.
Eric: Unless they hid very well.
People need to remember that physicians have warned new retirees for decades that ceasing active living and just sitting on the sofa and resting in retirement produces a life expectancy of 6 months.
It is the same with those over 80 who break a limb and start staying home, resting on the sofa to heal. Their life expectancy is 6 months.
For those during the pandemic who went into hiding in March and who have been resting on the sofa and not persuing an active exercise plan, 6 months are rapidly passing.
Hopefully, those who went into hiding in March and have been having supplies delivered to their door have found some physical exercise since to prevent their cardiovascular system from shutting down too fast and too far.
Shifting from an active lifestyle to a passive lifestyle can be done, but it has to be done gradually. Physicians have been saying for years that the minimum level of physical activity required to promote health is walking around the block once a day.
Housewifery is not an exception. Homemakers have been documented as walking 10 miles a day while doing their chores.
@@crusindc5282 Not true for all couch sitters or bedridden. Know quite a few in their 70s and 80s who lived for many years with plenty of comorbidiities AND unable to walk a few feet. One in her mid 80s lived to her 90s could not walk even a few inches. There's plenty more of them; but usually not discussed that much. It's not their will to live or eating a healthy diet or being surrounded by family, so probably more genetics.
Maybe? Maybe not? At 38:30 the issue of mortality decreasing among all age groups is discussed.
This is the correct answer (also the use of steroids has improved outcomes significantly).
Is AeroNabs in clinical trials anywhere?
is AeroNab in clinical tests?
Yes, age, masking etc. But was sun light a factor?
And other vitamins and nutrients that effect viral resistance.
Yes, summer. What about summer?! Good point. Also, what about previous infections - do they confer possible protection? I work with mostly homeless people - people who've had a ton of previous infections. We are pretty rigorous with the mask wearing. But overall, few infections and those who got infected before they came to us, recovered well. (More than one has said they thought they got the infection AT the hospital.)
Ivor Cummins (data-analist and engineer) explains it perfectly in the link I post here:
ua-cam.com/video/FU3OibcindQ/v-deo.html&ab_channel=IvorCummins
The disease followed a seasonal trend. It did not matter to the outcome (in fatality) what harsh, severe or mild lockdown measures were taken between the different European countries. Our politicians are suffering a delusion of grandeur, when they claim their lockdown measures saved lives. The only diseases that dropped significantly down, were STD's... People had less loose sexual contact during the lockdown...
30: UV rays in sunlight.
One of New York City's challenges is the vast canyons between skyscrapers where the sunlight barely reaches , so that the U V rays are unable to cleanse the sidewalks.
One article mentioned that being airborne results in SARS2 eventually falling to the ground or floor, where it is picked up on shoes and taken home to be deposited on the carpeting.
Once on the home carpeting, SARS2 can be picked up on pet fur and also on clothes, if adults it children survive okay in the floor.
People were advised to remove their shoes upon entering their home.
Sunlight and vitamin d in nursing homes is notoriously low.
Could the aeronabs be used to spray in a patient room when the pt has a high viral load and or is receiving aerosolizing treatments? Plus could people who can't get vaccines (Cancer and other immune suppressed patients) to protect them? And lastly what happens if you're allergic?
Use UV-C lighting. A new type of light only in space and now manufactured.
There are nightly gatherings of everyone off of work all over California where I live. Parties with music, Casinos, not to mention all the homeless and social rights movements.
I don't have any medical background, but am an engineer with a special interest in mathematics. If you just compare the COVID-19 new cases vs deaths between the US and UK, this observation is correct that the death rate is down stable despite the new surging cases. However, if you look at numbers for India and Brazil, the death rates are still proportional to the new case numbers.
These four countries are very interesting to observe since they're fairly big in size and major COVID-19 suffering regions. Also, two of them have medical infrastructures while the other two don't. It seems that the new cases are more directly related to prevention measures each country adopts and the death rates are to their ability to treat the patients effectively.
It'll be interesting to locate a country or two that shows what happens if both prevention measures and medical infrastructures are present and work well together. There are few countries in that happy category and no, Sweden is not one of them. It's Singapore, New Zealand, Taiwan, and South Korea. Their accumulated total cases, new cases, and death rates are unbelievably low; to the point of making the flu being 5 times more lethal than COVID-19.
The Aeronabs research sounds fascinating-- but the first question that comes to mind is, there's more than one spike protein on a Sars-Cov12 molecule, is there not? If so, to what extent is the viral replication/spread impaired if not *all* of the spike proteins on a given virus molecule are bound to an Aeronab?
@tzipporah batami I don't get what you're saying. Is there only one spike on a Sars-Cov12 molecule, or like all the pictures I've seen, it's covered with them? And if it's covered with them, do you have to block each and every spike with a separate Aeronab, or every other one, or 50% of them, etc., or what, to be effective? If you only block ONE spike with an Aeronab, isn't that virus molecule still able to attach to ACE2 via one of its other spikes?
@tzipporah batami So one AeroNab molecule can block *all* of a single Sars-Cov12 molecule's spikes?
Reduction of "raw" case fatality rate in the summer could be due to better detection of cases, especially asymptomatic and mild cases (both in young and older people). Masking may be a factor, but I would not consider this to be proven until other changes between spring and summer have been ruled out or quantified with regard to their effect on the actual infection fatality rate.
What about the risk of SARS-CoV-2 aerosol transmission enhancement by cigarette/cigar/pipe smoke micro/nanoparticles, or by such from other combustion processes (including ritual incense usage too) contributing in a kind of vectorial way? If such pathway, one maybe could explain the higher indoor infection probability as well as such pretty high one (not easily understood super spreading situation) outside in the open.
Franz: Indoor dynamics have been readily explained by SHOES. SARS2, being airborne, eventually falls to the ground or to the floors in businesses. From there, they are picked up by shoes.
When people reach home and walk around on their carpeting, SARS2 deposits on the carpeting. From there it can be picked up by pets, by children playing on the carpeting, and by adults who sit on the floor, etc.
People were advised to remove their shoes at the door of their home.
@@crusindc5282 Thanks. As to the retarded, indirect dynamics alone, your shoes-statement certainly is correct. But considering the viral flux/load, the aerosol pathway seems to be the direct and dominant one. Contact infection (apart from such in Covid-19 ICUs and other hospital/medical sites) is known to be a subdominant route, at least for severe outcomes.
Are people taking more Vitamin D suppliments? Sales data?
They should be. Here is a good vid about a study in Spain and vit D. He gives sources.ua-cam.com/video/V8Ks9fUh2k8/v-deo.html
Andrew Paterson Here. 👋🏽
Thanks
The Oxford vaccine trial was announced as continuing on 12th Sept, following independent safety review of the incident.
That’s good
Vitamin D is NOT really a vitamin and a functional immune system is important. If one believes insulin can lower blood sugar, why can’t one believe that the hormone Vitamin D can help a functioning immune system. Both are hormones and have profound effects on the body.
Amazing work. Thanks.
Thank you for the excellent info !
900,000 people are passing through TSA everyday.Down from usual 2.2 million.Still a Super Spreader event everyday
it's nearly always totally harmless
The difference in severe cases between NY and LA could be vitamin D levels difference in both populations.
There's no effective test for covid
What about the vitamin D levels? As shown in other countries
What does she mean “we didn’t know about masking?!” We’ve used masking in Medicine for over one hundred years by now. Now, were you to wait for the perfect EBM paper on masking, you would still be not wearing a mask...
I was thinking that also.
not only that, we knew specifically that masking was working to lower transmission in China for SARS-nCOV-2. what seems new is that disease severity is lower or asymptomatic with lower dose due to masking
We've used masking in Medicine for over one hundred years by now to prevent unnecessary infections in already vulnerable patients. It was in the majority of the situations NOT to protect the healthcare workers themselves. The exemptions are for the personal working with diagnosed and positive tested, sick, symptomatic patients on infectious disease departments. In this case we would only wear medical masks and not NON-medical masks that are now being used and promoted worldwide for some unscientific and unmedical reason. They simply do not work and it has somehow become like a religious believe that these NON-medical masks somehow magically work and prevent infections. All data collected over one hundred years of medical mask wearing, gives a protective percentage between 14% to max 17%. For non-medical masks, there simply is zero evidence that they work. There is actually some small (not conclusive evidence, so more research is needed) that these non-medical masks might work contra dictionary.
To protect the healthcare workers from numerous infectious diseases, we use vaccines and common sense hygienic measures. We are not allowed to wear jewelry during our work (bacteria, viruses and fungi hide on the surface of jewelry and can spread around that way). We wash our hands with hand-alcohol after every patient room we visit (all patients in the same room are considered to have already infected each other by being in the same room and living together). We even have policies to make sure you have short cut nails, because bacteria, viruses and fungi can hide under dirty nails and cause spread. As for vaccines, I had to take for example Tuberculosis & Hepatitis C vaccines to even be able to start as an intern in hospitals. Not only to protect me, but also to protect vulnerable patients who would get infected by me if I somehow got infected by another patient or colleague with Tuberculosis or Hepatitis C. I would drag it through the entire hospital. Infecting colleagues, who on their turn would infect more patients and colleagues.
Actually East Asian nation got a lot of experience with masks during Sars. I watched interviews with head of S. Korea and Taiwan health depts, both claimed only N95 or KN95 masks were at all effective.
@@rh001YT effective at doing what? if your goal is not spreading disease at all, N95 might be the answer. if your goal is spreading asymptomatic COVID19 (aka immunity to SARS-nCov-2) then plebian masks seem to be the answer.
I'm wondering 1. Why there needs to a vaccine at all, if universal masking can can be a "poor man's vaccine"? 2. If universal masking drops dose levels and leads to herd immunity, can we simply continue with masking? I understand the medical community and public health entities develop policy based on data. 3. Have we collected enough data to say we do not actually need a vaccine or at the very least a very small proportion of the population really needs a vaccine?
Jennifer Winsor at first I thought the same thing, but I think we are finding there are long-term neurological effects so avoiding any infection would be better than surviving mild infection. Like shingles from childhood affect adults much later, we don’t know how surviving even mild COVID 19 might really damage or shorten people’s lives.
Jennifer: Do you really want the 4 or 5 year version of the pandemic? How long do you imagine full penetration of SARS2 would take? Epidemiologists say 4 years. Bill Gates mentioned 5.
The Aeronab idea is wonderful; and who's to say that the next corona virus doesn't react the same way?!
Would these AeroNabs provoke an immune response ?
According to what he said their only action is on the virus itself, it does not touch the human side of things.
What about fecal spray from party people overusing small number of toilets over and over and over again? Fecal infection lingers for months. Sturgis bikers use indoor bathrooms.
Wait until winter to determine long term mortality rates....
Saunas help immune system followed by cold. Virus hates hot? Over 79 degrees?
Saying that there’s been a very small amount of reinfections in these last months, and then postulating it won’t happen more and more (in a scenario representing a risk of exponential nature) is committing the Thanksgiving day turkey fallacy.
which only happens in US and Canada?
@@ghwk-phd2784 if they admit the actual mortality rate is low and stop the lockdown/masking, they would have to spend more money on treatment for the increased numbers that do get infected non-mildly. experience has already shown they dont want the short term expense nor to increase the capacity of hospitals.
@@ghwk-phd2784 Anyone who understands science can see a straw man argument
@@krishna-e-bera: precisely!
The old are hunkered down. The young are getting infected. The old that didn't pay attention are now gone.
No one is dying in Spain because they use HCQ now. Early treatment is key.
71 died from Covid-19 in Spain yesterday according to Worldometer. 481 in the last seven-day period.
AG3NT O Would you please explain more? Has anything changed. WRT HCQ guidance in Spain?
Ulf Narverud I guess you missed the part of the presentation regarding a detachment of cases and deaths. Maybe that was the OP’s point.
@@hank-uh1zq No, I did see that, but I think that saying that "noone is dying" when in fact hundreds are dying is wrong. And then to put the lower case-to-death ratio down to HCQ when it is adequately explained by the four factors Doctor Gandhi explained I consider to be equally wrong. AG3NT came across as yet another true believer in HCQ.
I should not of used "No one". The graph showed the death rate has dropped quite considerably.
With the death rate so low amongst kids and students and they it wouldn't be better to get it from asymptomatic people to produce more herd immunity that deaths amongst college and grade schools and regular school is low
david flavin I just said to another person, that for sure my first reaction was the same, but I think we are finding there are long-term neurological effects so avoiding any infection would be better than surviving mild infection. Like shingles from childhood affect adults much later, we don’t know how surviving even mild COVID 19 might really damage health or shorten people’s lives.
David: And each child's death breaks it's mothers heart. You have kids you are willing to throw away to achieve herd
immunity?
Most parents will protect their children first and foremost and let the herd fend for itself.
Please cut the Housing lease
Dr. George Rutherford inspiration is high pitched. I am concerned he has tracheal stenosis. He needs to be checked before it's too late.
The fires are terrible and due to climate change in addition huge reduction of Forests plus Interspersed mass water dousing stations through forest areas in huge cleared areas is essential .
climate change, lol
Masking hamsters in a small study in from China? Why don’t you do a randomized trial for masks on humans?
Estimate: 266796 cases. Why not 266797? bah
data "suggests transmission is driven by a relatively small number of high-risk, close contacts"....that means sexual activity...prolonged very close contact and heavy breathing. Worldometer coronavirus page, sorted by deaths, clearly shows, with a few exceptions, that nations (because of their culture) with less promiscuity (pre-marital, extra-marital and gay sex) have lowest death rates. Sort on death rate because nations vary too much on testing. Islamic and Asian cultures (but not India) all have low death rates. No factor links the low death rate nations/cultures except for sex activity. They differ in pop density, mass transportation, diet, race/ethnicity, industrialization, climate, etc. And it is clear from the death rate sort that nations with highest death rate are the sexually liberated nations.
Rh: Yup, that certainly explains all the nursing home deaths.
Highly developed nations have a vastly larger elderly population.
@@crusindc5282 As far as nursing homes go, neither Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan or Singapore experienced the nursing home calamities experienced by some of the Western developed nations.
CV19 most likely entered the Western nursing homes via the staff some of whom were likely sexually promiscuous and patients, already with various illnesses were not able to fend off cv19. Also early on the staff in the nursing homes were not wearing masks all the time like they are now. My sister is a hospital admin and organized all the stuff needed for massive hospitalization that never came. She then was assigned to help solve the nursing home problem at one of the hospital chains' nursing home. She and other experts determined by testing staff that CV19 was definitely entering via the staff. The staff was mostly Filipino and Latino and that nursing home served a lower income demographic. My sister's daughter is an admin at an elder care home...they're not all that sick and ill, just dementia, difficulty walking and dressing, stuff like that. No CV19 deaths there. It's an elder care home that serves a high income community, probably mostly Republican. My neice is not sexually promiscuous. I've not yet had a chance to ask her about the make up of the staff.
Monica hot
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"I'm hamstrung by my Judeo-Christian heritage with bad at the bottom and good at that top". Oh puh-lease, that's the same worldwide.
I would guess is he has taken his social justice training.
Sad those people who graduated top of their class.
The bawdy handle crucially wander because banana noticeably grease barring a cute kilogram. crabby, known mary
I was looking forward to this but when you said Climate Change for the cause of CA fires, and not arson and poor forest management, you lost me. Good bye.
@peter Sounds kinda condescending but G-d bless.
Ken MH ~ wake up folks… its called SCIENCE. Learn it, live it, love it.
@@klutzykate123 Thanks. Have a degree in "science" and have been studying the issue for years. Global Warning is a hoax. G-d bless.
Ken MH ~ uh-huh… sure you do. ☮️
@@klutzykate123 So, are you saying I am lying? G-d bless!
Lost me with the mention of climate change unfortunately