Market Crash Probability
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- Опубліковано 26 бер 2021
- We have seen some pockets of weakness in markets recently but there is still plenty of talk about a full-scale market crash
All investors are interested in market crashes either as a buying opportunity or due to fearing loss, so in my latest video I examine the probability of a stock market crash, correction and bear market and I look at market valuations so I can show you what returns are most likely after a period of extremely high P/E ratios.
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Why not just calculate all periods December to January ? Why skip so much data ?
Sooooo should i be worried about a crash?
This guys voice is very soothing... my anxiety of the stock market goes away when i hear his voice..
The only channel in youtube i visit for rational academic information without bias, clickbaits and stupid 🚀 emojis.
+1000
True!
Pension Craft to the moon!
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
The only other one that may have some value is Trader University, although it is somewhat focused on Bitcoin.
You can tell he's great at plots and numbers when you see the "Numerical recipes in C" book on the top left corner. :D
Lord, how I loved that book
reminds me the Matlab days and gnuplot lol :-)
*+1* *2* *1* *3* *5* *3* *2* *8* *7* *8* *5*
This has to be some of the best statistical analysis on UA-cam. I see I’m not the only one who enjoys seeing charts created using R. Thanks Ramin
Thanks @Atul that's very kind of you to say! Ramin
@@Pensioncraft Every time I watch your vids I focus on that freckle/mole on your nose. Having suffered from skin cancer myself I'd seriously suggest you visit a dematologist just to make sure it's not.
Your videos are some of my favorite on UA-cam.
Thank you for making these.
It's soooo refreshing to have financial content on UA-cam that's not click-bate 'the sky is falling'.
I i - thank you so much. I am glad you enjoyed it
No one can predict the markets and looking back at history and trying to do so is largely a waste of time.
Today, if you are already in the market (and the market is currently highly valued) it makes sense to hold a larger amount of cash to reinvest again when the market falls and is less expensive. Interest rates are low so the cost of holding cash is relatively low.
Take some profits now and wait for a drop is a better risk/reward situation than leaving it all in.
Buffett currently holds around 30% in cash which I think tells you that he is waiting patiently for a better time to put it to use.
Most forecasts i see, are based on scenarios and they try to pinpoint a future stock price, or market performance. This display of probabilty range here seems a bit more complicated at first but also a lot more trustworthy as basis for decision. Thanks for your work!
Thanks for another great video! This was timely for me personally. I do need to watch it a second time to better understand some of the concepts - sometimes takes a while to sink into my brain.
I have two channels that I trust relating to the stock market and you are one of them. Thank you for appearing so trustworthy. My intuition says yes, so lets go with it (Btw, that's also my answer for the current state of market affairs).
Great information. I am in my mid 50s so we tend to be a little concerned, so though I could go to cash, I stand to lose and maybe worse if staying out of the market for a long period. It's best to ride out these market corrections and stay calm and buy cheap through a market correction or crash.
Interesting to see financial analysis using RMS (Root-Mean-Square). This technique is used in volt meters to measure a.c. Waveforms.
Thanks Ramin for posting this, very thoughtful discussion on both sides of the argument
Enjoy your calm demeanor and logical thinking. The problem with statistical inference is that the future cannot be extrapolated from history. Many of the past crashes and corrections were engineered, either intentional or due to misfortune. For example: war, misguided government interference, the tech bubble, prime mortgage bubble, global pandemic, etc. One should give pause to the current unprecedented spending spree - this could backfire.
Holy moly, what a great magical number mumbo jumbo... have to watch it again. Thank you, very interesting 👍
I come here for great financial insight and amazing ggplot visuals! Great work as always 👌🏾
As a finance student I wish I had lectures like this. Amazing content!
So much value in this videos. I've gained so much knowledge about macroeconomics, inflation, interest rates in general let alone stock market. By far best financial videos on UA-cam allways presented calmly, soundly, friendly to the average investor. Some ppl on UA-cam I really like but their strategy is not really applicable to me, like investing in some chinese, russian value stocks etc.
Great bit of analysis Ramin - very interesting. Thanks!
Your videos are always well done. With the popularity of retail investing over the last couple years, it’s textbook applied info like this that helps distinguish the hype from the reality... I’d love to see a video discussing whether growth in the US markets or possibly undervalued Asian stocks/markets and compare the likely outcomes for which is more likely to offer better growth or returns OI.
Thnx for what you do!
Great maths. Enjoyed the video.
QE, and how long it stays for, is the only additional variable (pandemics and wars aside).
Really solid and impressive homework on all the graphs and analysis. Thanks for being a sober voice of reason. Another great vid from the JPowell doorstop guy!
Thank you Anthony Weitz. That's very kind
Ramin, I disagree that considering overlapping periods would be bad. If anything, it would give you more robust and less biased results. This is the principle behind statistical resampling methods (see "resampling with replacement" for examples), except in this case you really would want to have all the overlapping periods accounted for. Tallying results from Jan to Jan only doesn't really reflect market or investor behaviour.
Even without replacement or overlap, you shouldn't think of your samples as independent: these represent time series data, and are inherently autocorrelated whether or not they overlap.
You've really just chosen to take a measure of velocity (percent change per unit of time, which is a continuous variable), and to sample this velocity at discrete, regular intervals of 12 months. Because this is a continuous variable, there is nothing wrong with sampling this measure of velocity every month, or even every day, or every hour or every minute (if this data existed), regardless of the relative size of the overlap.
Thanks you! This is excellent and very refreshing to find something of substance, mathematically informed and well presented. Brilliant piece.
You're very welcome Herby Parker. I am glad you are enjoying them. Thanks Ramin
This is good analysis sir, market can crash 10% plus, so why pe dislike, they don't no about market. Thanks sir.
Such a great video. I don't remember how I found you Ramin, but your knowledge is so valuable! Thank you
Hi @TemptationJewellery thank you! And thanks for supporting us. Ramin.
Ramin, when the latest bull market ends and things get a bit more ugly (maybe this year?) will you post regularly to help us newbies understand what’s going on (and I guess reassure not to panic).
Have not participated in a bear market before so I can imagine it’s going to be a bit unnerving, so it would be good to have some kind of guide to help make sense of it as it progresses.
Thanks for your excellent work, have subbed as a patreon member.
Some of the best content on youtube, thanks
Hi Dankest Ranch - that is very kind of you. Thanks Ramin
First class vid ! How many of us wish we'd seen this years ago.
Excellent rational content! Thank you for sharing this information. I always enjoy how you carefully explain market statistics. A little bit of humour is always nice (Jerome Powell hanging conspicuously on a white wall) 😄
Excellent analysis Ramin. Thank you. I assume this is your original work.
BTW, I have been sharing your videos in many investment services I am part of and encouraged them to join. Your work definitively deserves to be fully supported.
Thank you again for your outstanding work. :)
Hi @maslam0000tube thank you! Yes this is my own work, it takes a while to do the preparation of the videos so it means a lot when someone says they like them. And also thank you very much for supporting us. Ramin.
See the books behind Ramin, and Ramin quoting Shuler, that's where it comes from. Ramin presents it well.
Although I don't fully agree on the final conclusion, I do like the analysis shared. The key becomes the ECY estimation that needs your forward looking rather than historical data only. Additionally, historical data doesn't tell you the full story at back for your prediction, but it does provide some leading signals for your market observations.
Are u a bear ? Coz I am lol
Great analysis! Always learning something new!
Glad to hear it Samer Ambumogli
My financial advisor told me to go ahead and dollar cost average invest into equities (both domestic and international) over the next 6 months and do NOT try wait for some correction or crash. Basically he said it’s impossible to accurately time the market so don’t try.
well. it is possible. we all predicted a fall in march when covid was confirmed. for the companies concerned, and hence taking the market down with a it, a bit.
next months its the same idea, possibly.
little less obvious.
but global banks are silently not lending money as easy as last year.
this will have a snowball effect on startups.
so i bet existing companies will grow bigger easier.
oil is going to be weird, pssibly just rise and rise, but allot of large scale manipulation is goign on, and since 6 months growing private trade. this makes it all even more unpredictable.
so in a way i wanted to disagree, because last year we could predict it. but next months. yeah its difficult to predict.
im betting etherium will do good, rolls royce too.
Really interesting and informative video - thank you for taking the time to prepare this as I can see a lot of work has gone into it. A much better use of your time than painting your wall 😆👍
Such great content, very educational.
Thank you Suds I am glad you find it helpful
Good stuff. Thanks Ramin.
Glad you enjoyed it @RM
buying probability distributions... awesome !!
thank you for your hard work to help us
It's my pleasure
Your videos are great, Thanks !
Hi Jose thank you very much! Ramin.
Guys please don't skip the Ads. Help this channel, humble request. Great channel with quality content.
Thank you @Debarghya Dasgupta i'm pleased you like my content and that's very kind of you to suggest. Ramin
@@Pensioncraft absolutely Sir. Love your content and presentation ❤️
As usual brilliant from PensionCraft & very interesting but not sure it is anything other than a 'good read'. Since there is no initial fail safe way of knowing whether a 30%+ drop is a short term crash [Spring 2020] or the beginning of a 25 year bear market [1929 onwards.] the ONLY way to deal with it is to invest a regular amount per month come what may. No sleepless nights that way.
Yes but depends how old you are
Top guy - really good well presented videos in just the right style
Much appreciated @mw01908
Thank you. New to channel. Found this intelligent, informative and interesting.
Welcome @patty sizer I am so glad you are enjoying the channel
Thank you Ramin for putting the numbers and facts here. I do believe one can make a thesis out of your video :D
Thanks and still watching Frank Melbourne Australia
Great video again! Thanks Ramin! Now ... how do I buy stocks during a sell-off, if I don´t sell previously some other part of my portfolio? Is it wise to cash in on fixed income allocations in order to buy stocks during a 10 %, a 20 % and / or a 30 % correction?
Great work, thanks for posting, keep it up!
Thanks for watching!
Excellent data driven information - thanks!
Glad it was helpful Chris J
Just wanted to say this is amazing research. I looked at something similar as I've done the 2000 IQ move of over allocating into renewable energy after an drop of approx 15%. I also sold some covered calls right after buying in. Well turns out the drop had another drop so I decided to sell Jun 2021 Cash Secured Puts at a strike price roughly 40% below the current market price for those stocks essentially saying I want upfront premium and that's the price where I'm willing to double down. Now in the scenario that it does happen thanks to the cash secured put premium and the covered calls I sold when I initially bought into the stocks I'm still going to be very close to the break even point. If it drops significantly below the strike price of those put options that's essentially where I'd be somewhat in the red, which is what I'd call the disaster scenario. Well the disaster scenario only has a 1.5% chance of happening. A 5-6% chance of a -30% scenario in the overall market seems like a very accurate estimate.
This is such valuable analysis. Thank you very much!
You're very welcome @Ollie Russell
wow a youtube channel based on fundamentals
a youtube channel done by someone who has an education and business in the topic the video is on !!
i'm subscribed
Hi @AcuDoc I appreciate that. Thank you for subscribing. Ramin
Excellent video
Thank you very much @sick_motion
Very good analysis. I have heard a lot lately that the crash of the market is coming this year. From the other side some people were just saying about corrections. After your video I can sleep well. I am ready for additional corrections later this year. Will be good opportunity to buy more stock with a discount 👍
Key point: you can only buy a dip if you are not already in. Hint: Buffet is sitting on 30% cash? Asset allocation.
@@advdad1129 this is generally a sub-optimal strategy because that spare cash could be sitting out the market for 5-10 years, and evidence suggests that this costs you more than the dip-buying will benefit you.
@@advdad1129 not according to the Cape yield as featured in this video.
@@JamyOats yeah but the Cape Yield is one of the very few measures that indicate the market is not wildly overpriced. Other ones like Buffet's Market to GDP ratio show the market as strongly overvalued. Who is right? hard to say
and 70%?
But what about the psychological aspect of waiting until there is a significant crash - i.e. significantly ramping up ones weekly/monthly investment strategy during a downturn when everyone else is in 'the eye of the storm, huddled together and telling themselves not to sell'? Knowing that you'll be achieving financial independence (especially if you're investing to secure future passive income by taking advantage of amazing yields) will allow you to feel giddy when there is blood in the streets... That makes it worthwhile for me, even if the odds are clearly against such a strategy.
I especially enjoy your informative, resourceful remarks and find your enunciation to be outstanding!
Thank you kindly Marvin
Excellent analysis, thank you so much
Glad you liked it @A Bajaj
Good discussion Ramin, enjoyed it. Markets are so volatile at the moment, up 2% one day, down 3% the next etc. My conclusion is that even the experts don't know what they're actually doing right now, so i'm not going to worry myself trying to figure out the same!
Agreed, and the ones who profess they know have a bridge to sell. Best not to worry about something that is important but at the same time not knowable; an idea from either Buffet or Lynch cannot remember.
Hi @talbotsunbeamer fund managers don't know what they're doing either, they just get paid a lot for their well-intentioned ignorance. That's why I think keeping it simple and grounding your portfolio in evidence is best for most people. Thanks, Ramin.
When I looked at the last 100 years of the Dow, I came to the conclusion that military conflicts were by far the primary cause for market downturns. The exception was the 1929 crash where it may be that industrial disputes between workers and management could have triggered caution.
Where can I get access to these graphs? Loved the video
Thank you for producing another excellent video.
Your welcome @Pim Inglis - I am glad you found it helpful
As a retiree I only invest in cash flow so I'm not dependent on share price. My priority is reliability of the cash flow. REITs, Mortgages (direct, not MBSs), utilities, various ETFs that do covered call options. It all pays about 6.5% in cash every month. Even my "insurance" gold holdings are in an ETF that writes call options on 1/3 of a SPDR bullion holding, and pays a reliable 6+ points in cash and still gets exposure to 2/3rds of any gold upside.
Thanks for the thorough analysis.
My pleasure @Stephen Johnson I am glad it was helpful
Thats amazing, thanks for that really like this.
Thank you Your Plumbing Pal. Glad you are enjoying them. Thanks Ramin
Fantastic content as always Ramin!
Much appreciated Adam terry
I'm obsessed with these videos, I'm learning a ton. Hopefully the channel can grow exponentially!
So glad you are finding them useful Ganok.
What are the expected forward returns for a global portfolio which is tilted? 30% global all cap / 30% global small cap (or global value) / 40% developed world bonds. This is representative of a portfolio held by DIY indexers.
Most UA-cam commentary focuses only on US megacap, which can be argued is only a quarter of the investable opportunity set.
I have never before commented on a video - but I feel compelled to do so in this case. I found this video to be of exceptionally high quality with very real added value. The information provided is beautifully presented. But what if Ray Dalio is correct and the current situation is more like 1929 than any period since? If so, the pain will be much worse than these well-worked probabilities convey.
Hi Bryn that is certainly possible but unlikely. The United States is a very different country now e.g. it's no longer as rural and on average much wealthier. Unemployment is still high following the pandemic amongst service sector employees but is improving slowly. And the US government is really going to town on its fiscal stimulus which will help immensely. So I think we're past the worst part of this crisis. Thanks, Ramin.
Ramin, Great video, as always. As you and I are both up there in years and we both invest conservatively, the impact of a long duration decline equal to our remaining years of carrying this mortal coil becomes more significant. I'm wondering if there is a betting theory that can use the probability of a crash and remaining number of bets to determine the size of our current bet (asset mix). I need to read still another book.
Very detailed analysis, must be lot of hard work. Thanks for all the insights. I think all this volatility is due to the Robinhood Investors, LOL. Keep up the good work. I am in India but it still makes sense, Amazing!
Very useful 👏👏👏
Glad you think so @berkayguner
On the excess cap yield forecast of 4.1% is that for the s&p 500 or the world stock market?
good video. Great Info
Glad it was helpful @David Dennis. Thanks Ramin
Just come across your channel, great evidence-based vid. But is the final comment on 'Drip Feeding' (i.e. Dollar Cost Averaging) vs Lump Sum Investment definitely true?
This brings me back to Bayesian inference (which I haven't actually studied much, but I care a lot).
Let A be the event "market has had a decline (e.g. 10%)"
and B is the "market is expensive (using Shiller's formula)" event.
In the video you reported the probability P(A) of falling and probability P(AandB) of falling when the market is expensive and probability P (Aand-notB) of falling when the market is cheap.
So P(A) is the a priori probability of having a drop. We should then calculate the posterior probability P(A|B) = P(AandB)/P(B), where P(B) is the probability that the market is expensive. Isn't it or I'm totally wrong?
Thanks a lot for your video
He is finding the probability that the market goes down, say, 30% the following year, given that it is expensive (or cheap) using empirical data so you don't really need to use Bayes' here. This occurs 5% of the time when the market is expensive according to the actual data so you could formalize this as P(30% D | M.Ex) = 0.05
Since he constructed the condition that the market is expensive half the time and cheap half the time (by using the median as the cut-off), you could write that P(M.Ex) = 0.5
This is crude and probably a bit arbitrary so conclusions from it may be unreliable, but, assuming it is one approach, then you could use Bayes' Theorem to write:
P(30% D | M.Ex) = P(30% D ∩ M.Ex) / P( M.Ex) => 0.05 = P(30% D ∩ M.Ex) / 0.5 => 0.05 x 0.5 = P(30% D ∩ M.Ex)
So, P(30% D ∩ M.Ex) = 0.025 i.e. the probability that the market experiences a 30% drop AND is expensive is 2.5%. But as stated, not sure this is very reliable/helpful. The comparison of the empirical data seems more useful and understandable intuitively.
Ramin, you keep outperforming yourself with these impressive videos.
I of course agree with the video and your conclusions. However, in the disclaimer document of every single stock, index fund or ETF, it always says past performance is not an indication of future growth or decline. How much confidence can we put into these probabilities derived from a past that was very different than today?
Hi Sam you're right that the future will be different from the past but we have to calibrate our beliefs somehow. That's the idea of base rates - start off with approximately correct beliefs and then fine-tune based on the latest information. Sometimes those beliefs will be very different from your base probabilities but it's usually best to start in roughly the right place. Thanks, Ramin.
Thanks Ramin!
Dosn't the Shiller ECY totally depend on central bank yield curve control and exponentially growing central bank balance sheets?
Another awesome video Ramin.
Thank you @Wurzley! Ramin.
You got a Great voice, Are you in the Radio business? If not maybe you should.👍✅
A useful and interesting video . I wonder how often in history a 25 basis point rise in interest rates has instantly lead to a 20 % market correction ? As it would have if Mr Powel had uttered the words .. I still think the ice is very thin .
Is the blue a fall of between 10 and 20% - ie excluding the bear and the fall - or does it include the bear and the fall - ie >10% fall?
Being a bear has been a very bad move for a very long time. I’m betting on the money printer.
Money printer go BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
'Don't fight the fed' isn't just a meme, it's also the truth.
Greg mannarino agrees .
Printing money to boost the economy is like pouring gas during a wildfire
I lost my ass being conservative with stocks less than 3 % everybody making 8-14
Thank you
You're welcome Alexey Vasilyev
Sir thank you 👍👃
Always amazed by the way Ramin manages to extrapolate miningful information from the data to build such robust arguments. I just wonder whether estimating the probability of a crash now using also data from more than 100 years ago might not be misleading.
Hi Arsenio the problem with annual data is that there aren't many data points, so there isn't any way around the fact that you have to go back far into the past if you can. But I still think that 100 year old data is better than no data at all and a belief grounded only in opinion. Thanks, Ramin.
(1) The modern market system is vastly different to late 19th century and early 20th century market, so the historical data argument shouldn't hold any weight. The historical data should be weighted massively towards the era of derivatives.
(2) You would see the data for where to invest better if you did the same analysis on sectors of the economy instead of the overall economy. I don't see it as a question of whether to get in cash or be in equity, but where to be in equity.
(3) Thanks for the analysis of the CAPE, I am not familiar with it and will have to look at it more.
By ur comment I suspect u are in a bear mode right now? It seems u know a lot... just wondering
Very insightful vid Ramin! I'm not sure how available the data is, but I wonder what the probabilities would be for a global index, rather than the S&P 500. A portfolio concentrating on a set of large-cap companies in one country may increase the overall risk of a crash? Unless the S&P 500 has an extremely high correlation with global markets, which may be the case...
MSCI / FTSE all world are 66% US so over short time spans they are extremely well correlated even if the SP500 has significantly outperformed since 2012. In terms of the conclusions though it doesn't make a difference. Likes of the DAX, NAS100, FTSE100 not so because they are not nearly as broad as the SP500. Having said that a bear market in the SP500 would normally be matched in all indices.
@@andrewwrench1959 The FTSE Global All Cap Index has a 56.5% US allocation and the S&P 500 is approximately 80% of the US market. I would estimate that the S&P 500 is probably just under 50% of a global index. And as you say, it has over-performed in recent years, so historically it may have only counted for 40-45%, which is still a huge chunk.
Most of the crashes have occurred during global events i.e. World Wars and Global Financial Crisis etc. But I do wonder if the probabilities of a correction occurring on a global index might be smaller than the S&P 500...
Hi Ramin, loved your video!
I was trying to recreate the same for Indian markets and had some doubts. For p(correction) using valuation, do you use historic 1 year return or post year return?
Also, did you adjust log real returns in any way?
Hi Ashish I use the valuation at the beginning of the period i.e. Excess CAPE Yield on January 1st 2019 then look at the return in the following year (January 1st 2019 to January 1st 2020). Thanks, Ramin.
Wow fantastic video
Are these graphs available somewhere?
Hi Stefano the data is available from Robert Shiller's website (www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm). I did the graphs myself in R using the ggplot2 library created by Hadley Wickham. Thanks, Ramin.
As interesting and useful as this kind of education is, it is only part of the story. Most successful investors base their decisions on individual assets. To think of it in a different way, if one were to bet on which soccer team would be the most successful during the coming season, analyzing 150 years of data would be useful, but understanding each team and its coaches and players during the next season would be even more helpful.
This is the same as active fund managers Vs passive. The majority of active managers under perform their benchmark.
@@mutton_man However it does appear retail investors ( who are mostly active) are performing very well.
Thanks for your analysis. But there is no compelling secular growth in the equity indexes and its apparent that artificial growth from central bank money printing is not sustainable. So at some point this ponzi scheme gonna bust and trapped liquidity will find its way to the riches leaving us with price inflation and menacing supply/demand missmatch. Analysis gives a glimpse of muscle memory but this time is different and there is no reasoning to be long in this market.
Exactly !
Humanity will continue to innovate and increase productivity. Growth continues but we tend to over-leverage to fuel additional growth. I agree some deleveraging will be necessary but there’s a floor of fundamental value. Dalio describes well how historically empires use inflation and money printing to devalue the currency as a mechanism for minimizing debt. The creditors lose but the debtors benefit. As a debtor country, this can be good for the US. Nothing lasts forever but it can continue for quite a while.
The question isn't whether. It's when.
When
I actually understand what is taught on this channel.
Hi Swan Moon that's great! Thanks, Ramin.
Maybe another topic would also be good. The market crash and invest in value, valuations has been the topic for the last months.
What you should have done is worked out all returns for all periods without any bias, worked out the standard deviation and mean, and then done a Monte Carlo simulation to get estimates of losses. In fact this is a much better way of estimating risk than just looking at volatility (standard deviation) - sd says nothing about risk, it only talks about the variance of the data about the mean.
Could you make a video on when you think that growth/tech stocks will recover?
We hear so much about what happens to stocks during historic market crashes. What about what happened to government bonds?
wonderful video, but can we get sub titles? Most of the channel's videos do have them but somehow not this one :)
funny you post this now, you're in for a chuckle