THANK YOU LARRY. I bought your annual forecast for the 1st time this year; very informative-- must have read it 40x. Ill be buying it every year now. Glad to see I'm included in the smart money-(sometimes doesnt feel like it)- as I've been buying Navallier's A rated stocks-(like COST)- even though it hurts at times. Keep up the good work and thanks again.
Thank you very much for your great analysis and that you share your great knowledge with us!!! I read a lot of your books and courses and learned and still learn so much from you. I wish you all the best, stay healthy, happy and successful!!!! Good thoughts and good wishes from Germany!!
My concerns are the unprecedented amount of printing Fed has done in the last 2 years. By far nothing we’ve seen in history. Add to that still mounting on our trade deficit. I think that will break the seasonality/cycles aspect inflation will continue on for bit longer. Or a lot, we’ll see.
@@blazetrader I am only an index fund investor and I entered the market in July 2021. I dollar cost average into the dips and will hold long term. Your buy points have been spot on. Welcome:)
"People just love to trade because this is like sex you don't have to be good at it to enjoy it. So people just rush in and they trade anything. If it moves, they'll trade it." Larry Williams this man is a pure genius! I enjoy watching his seminars!
Another well-reasoned, well-researched video from one of the all-time greats! FWIW, Larry, your friend and former colleague, Jake Bernstein, was showing some similar things and expressing similar projections (based on his own research and indicators), which makes me feel better. Not that you both can't be wrong, but it also lines up with EW/Fibonacci analysts' views like Avi Gilburt and Carley Garner. Most valuable and important for me was recognizing the difference between a Correction and a Bear Market. Since 1980, the SPX has corrected 14% on AVERAGE, which we have not had for nearly two years, so this is perfectly natural reversion to a mean before markets resume their 100-plus-year uptrend.
Larry, things have deteriorated since this video. What are seeing going forward through May and into June. Looks like we are headed for trouble. What do you think?
Hi Larry. I’m somewhat new to investing. Made 4x my money and lost 3/4 of that Nov-Feb. As a problem solving engineer in automotive I’m Very keen on your charting analysis…and wish you were not in retirement ha! What software do you go to analyze the charts?
So glad you put this webinar together Larry. You are the voice of reason that we all need from time to time to give us a reality check. I buy your annual forecast every year and it keeps me level headed and on track with all my trading. Like I have said before, you are the Yoda of trading. Thanks for everything, I am super grateful:)
How timely! The last time I saw you was you with your jacket over the shoulder calling market bottom during the covid crash. I was like is he nuts? Now I know why you were the one and only nut who stuck his neck out calling bottom during maximum fear in the market and proven totally right. Thanks again for the invaluable lessons. I will never forget that confidence look with the jacket over the shoulder in March 2020. Please do another video on 4/28.
@@tradingbuddysystem7416 Thank you sir! Q: what if instead of a ten-year cycle (1952, 62, etc.) we calculate a four-year cycle (the year of the midterm elections 2022, 2018, etc.). I'll try to make such a chart tomorrow. I hope to read your thoughts on this idea here.
One question please: what about what the Decennial Cycle reveals us, that we will have more downside into May/June? Thank you very much Mr Williams and stockcharts for histing all these LW youtube events!
@@blazetrader One bearish concern though: Russell 2k shows perfect Stage 4 beginning as per Stan Weinstein's and Wyckoff's studies on the wkly chart: a wide several-month Stage 3 and now early in Stage 4 (the Decline Phase) after a retest of the down breakout at $210 for IWM etf, setting 210 as resistance aftyer Stage-3 support. Therefore, after this retest, we should Russell 2000 falling for at least several weeks to complete S4.
This is impeccable timing if this is indeed a bottom (with peak geopolitical worries at the moment). If this is a bottom, do you think we would also see a rebound with high growth high multiple tech and biotech stocks, like ARKK and XBI? Thanks!
Hi Larry, I bought your annual forecast and it says we should be looking for weakness in stocks about right now, contrary of what you are saying right know....!!! little confused, also in the oil market!!
@@blazetrader Thanks for the reply…. the price line crosses into 2022 at a higher point than it crosses into 2023. It’s in a downtrend for a 3/4 of the year. How is that not negative for the year?
Hey Larry…Don you have any data regarding situation like Ukraine going on tonight. I’m curious about the drastic decline since the start…would this be just a discount for buying opportunities.
Another excellent video from one of the greatest! Larry, whenever you actually retire will your stockcharts indicators continue to be updated with data on their backend to make sure that indicators such as money flow, accumulation, sentiment, Williams value, etc. are still accurate? Thanks again!
Great presentation as always not just answer but WHY, as with trading not just the right answer but why you have that answer not for the present but the reason why for the futures decisions. 1982 comment of previous high inflation number, memory serves that was Reagan and read a time he doubted his decisions to slow Carters money policy. A low point in his career as president, and a time he actively supported a young senate canidate from Montana. A better time than 1982 would probably seen a different election result for that support.. Vix/Trin still adding for market info, thanks again for your insight on that subject. As always great insights. thanks Steve (Gate)
Thank you sir! Q: what if instead of a ten-year cycle (1952, 62, etc.) we calculate a four-year cycle (the year of the midterm elections 2022, 2018, etc.). I'll try to make such a chart tomorrow. I hope to read your thoughts on this idea here.
@@blazetrader Yes, sir! You are absolutely right! I watched Your previous performance on my PC, but I left a comment on another video that was published later..)) That is, I made a mistake and commented on the wrong video that I wanted! In any case, thanks for Your answer! I'm starting to watch this video!
Dear Larry, Thank you very much for this video! I bought your 2022 FORECAST. With the current political situation "Russia-Ucrania", would the forecasts for the 2022 still be valid? According to your comments if there is a war or a big conflict there would be a big sell off. Every day we are getting closer to an armed conflict... Best of health and happiness!
Thanks Larry! I have missed your weekly Larry TV so much that I wish it could come back, maybe Louise can take your place as the commentator and you just sit back and relax as a consultant to her. Miss you guys!
@@blazetrader These are the years you should enjoy as you see fit. That’s what I tell my 79 y/o father. Larry, you sound good, coherent and lively. May you be blessed with many more years.
Always love to hear your perspective. Your May-April 2020 call was perfect. Everyone was bearish, you were the lone voice saying we're going higher. Thanks Larry, God bless
From my view, Probability of a recession from FRED is not something that we can rely as a leading indicator. It is updated only once a month and the provided example of Feb 2020 and Mar 2020 couldn’t warn the investors in advance. By the time we got the probability for Mar 2020, the stock market has already crashed. Basically it moved from 0.08 in Feb 2020 to 100 in Mar 2020. Therefore, it being low at the moment does not give any positive signal to me.
Hi Larry, Wow what a treat. Thanks so much so this special presentation. I didn't understand the relationship re Gold bullion and the stock market chart. I understand stock market is undervalued vs Gold bullion. I am clarifying if the Gold bullion market is also undervalued as well as the stock market. Kindly clarify. Thanks so much for everything you do. Kind regards
@@blazetrader Hi Larry, You were bang on on the stock market as usual. I purchased the annual newsletter. The newsletter forecast re: Gold bullion , says will start to go down end of February,2022. I am quite symathetic to the Ukranian people, can't imagine, what will be the end result. I am wondering, does the Gold forecast change as a result of the Ukranian / Russia war, for example, will Goild bullion continue it's uptrend in March,2022. Does the forecast stand regardless of the Russia Ukranian crises. Thanks so much for everything you do.
Larry, thank you for your work as usual, but at 10:05, are you implying that technical analysis has no value when it comes to recessional pullbacks? or ?
Larry W. Always delivers! Thank you for sharing your thoughts and views of the markets right now. Been very bullish lately mainly due to all the fear and also many areas of the market that have corrected so much already. Love the content & great to have things "confirmed". Amazing work as usual. Bless 🙏
Not so sure the value of gold to stock market applies when we we are in a period of very high inflation and people are bidding up gold. I'd put an quetion on that indicator.
The first chart about 1982 - 1984 stock market growth is not really relevant. stock market turned bullish around Aug 1982 and that's not when the inflation was on its peak. It was actually around the time when the inflation was well under control with CPI index of 5.85. CPI peak actually around Feb 1980 and from 1980 to 1982 while CPI was being controlled, the market was bearish throughout, which might be more similar to what we are going through now.
@@blazetrader Thanks Larry for the comment. I just found that I forgot to express my appreciation. I really appreciate all your effort invested in this video creation. I learned so much from your video and, currently, I'm doing my own research to understand information you have presented better. I'm a novice investor but want to be a responsible one.
@johnatan No sales or discounts that I'm aware of, but you can keep an eye out for any that might come in the future. For what it's worth, I think Larry's tools are well worth the investment, but that's a decision you'll have to make for yourself.
Can you elaborate a bit more on the JP Morgan indicator of VIX rises by more than 50% of its 1-month MA? Is this the same as a 30 MA set up on a daily chart?
Don't need a chart for that metric. It Would not have worked Well in March 2020, the worse of the decline happened afterwards. The vix more than doubled.
Hi Larry! Thank you for your amazing comment for market .. I needed that! I have your forecast 2022, I have your Stock Trading Course… and I am very happy with all great information you give to us! I wish you all Helth and Happiness, you deserve everything the best! I am so sorry , that you don’t have some subscription every month.. I miss you! Good luck and I appreciate very much your updates for the market! Thank you! Thank you! Thank you 🙏
Am I seeing things? it seems that the vix indicator was up by more than 50% back in 2020 while the market was only half way on it's downward spiral when I backtested the vix index.
But the CB Leading Index is not forwarding looking, it is laggard. Typically for a 100 years history US CPI does not cross over 8.5%; so the Fed has to work its hiking cycle end QT. NYSE margins are at all time highs, until they get a wash out....it is not time to hit the long term BUY & HOLD. A fair level on the S&P500 is probably around 4100. Joe Biden can't do a Ukraine response; war spikes inflationary pressures & the Fed can't do its inflation taming. Historically mid-term elections dampens the bulls. The SPX calls optionality is skewed towards Nov-Dec, ie the bulls are timed for the bottom then & there. We probably bump around in a highly volatile market.
I don't think FED has a choice because the next FOMC meeting is very far away and the mid term election is in November. Biden told Powell to put inflation the first priority. The sooner FED deals with the inflation, the sooner inflation may be under control: at least, the asset class such as real estate, the stock price and the car price will have to drop. Those who planned for early retirement may be forced to go back to work... therefore, the labor costs can be lower when the labor supply increase. Also, FED probably cares about the US reserve currency status in the world...The bubble needs to be burst...the sooner the less pain for everyone
Thank you so much I always look forward to Larry's video. He's a legend and still kind enough to share his knowledge with us. Last year was spot on !
Thank you Larry for sharing your wisdom and analysis. You're simply the BEST, and a true legend. Best of health and happiness to you sir.
Thanks Larry for your well-reasoned analysis.
Larry Williams is so knowledgeable. I respect him so much. Thanks so much for sharing.
This is one of the best videos that explains whats is currently happening in the stock market. Excellent !!!
All ITALY loves you Larry .... I did ask you for a video and you did ..... God bless you in everything Sir
Thank you Larry! We appreciate what you do always!
Larry Williams you’re a gem. Thanks
Thanks Larry, for the showing us your factual situation
Thank you so much for a very informative update, the timing of the video is impeccable! I also bought the 2022 forecast and found it very valuable.
THANK YOU LARRY. I bought your annual forecast for the 1st time this year; very informative-- must have read it 40x. Ill be buying it every year now. Glad to see I'm included in the smart money-(sometimes doesnt feel like it)- as I've been buying Navallier's A rated stocks-(like COST)- even though it hurts at times. Keep up the good work and thanks again.
Hey man would you be kind enough to share? I don't mind paying my share via PayPal. I couldn't find a 2022 report to buy. Thanks in advance
So wonderful! Thanks Larry for helping to ease bear market fears and showing a potential buying opportunity! :)
Thank you ! Always look forward to hearing your perspective.
Thanks Larry always very interesting to listen to you!
Everyone is that bearish right now that suggests the bear will be coming but not any time soon😉
Larry thanks for sharing your wisdom earned over many decades 🙏
Larry's the best. Walks you through his analysis in logical and understandable steps. Thanks as always.
Larry never says anything unless the indicators back him up. A big reason why he’s one the best market guys ever.
Thank you Larry for sharing your view! Best wishes!
Thanks Larry, I appreciate you doing these.
Thank you very much for your great analysis and that you share your great knowledge with us!!! I read a lot of your books and courses and learned and still learn so much from you. I wish you all the best, stay healthy, happy and successful!!!! Good thoughts and good wishes from Germany!!
Larry, enjoy your videos. Ride the wave and have no fear this year!
My concerns are the unprecedented amount of printing Fed has done in the last 2 years. By far nothing we’ve seen in history.
Add to that still mounting on our trade deficit. I think that will break the seasonality/cycles aspect inflation will continue on for bit longer. Or a lot, we’ll see.
Larry Williams: THE GOAT
Always appreciate you sharing your wisdom. Thank you!
Thank you Larry. I bought your 2022 forecast.
@@blazetrader I am only an index fund investor and I entered the market in July 2021. I dollar cost average into the dips and will hold long term. Your buy points have been spot on. Welcome:)
Larry, I appreciate your insight and experience.
"People just love to trade because this is like sex you don't have to be good at it to enjoy it. So people just rush in and they trade anything. If it moves, they'll trade it." Larry Williams this man is a pure genius! I enjoy watching his seminars!
Another well-reasoned, well-researched video from one of the all-time greats! FWIW, Larry, your friend and former colleague, Jake Bernstein, was showing some similar things and expressing similar projections (based on his own research and indicators), which makes me feel better. Not that you both can't be wrong, but it also lines up with EW/Fibonacci analysts' views like Avi Gilburt and Carley Garner.
Most valuable and important for me was recognizing the difference between a Correction and a Bear Market. Since 1980, the SPX has corrected 14% on AVERAGE, which we have not had for nearly two years, so this is perfectly natural reversion to a mean before markets resume their 100-plus-year uptrend.
Hi Larry. How often do you use the PMO price movement oscillator? What do you think of this indicator.?
Thanks for the great videos. SPG
Larry, things have deteriorated since this video. What are seeing going forward through May and into June. Looks like we are headed for trouble. What do you think?
Hi Larry, looking at the yield curve today and it looks like there is a slight up turn. Does that change your views?
@@blazetrader thank you for your response
Larry is the best !!!
amazing, amazing, AMAZING AS ALWAYS!!!! Thank YOU Larry!!
Larry is awesome!
Amazing as always, Larry!
Great Video Larrys always well researched .
Thanks Larry. As always in- depth analysis 🧐 we love ❤️ you. 👍
Thank you Larry. Always fascinating.
Great video !
Hi Larry. I’m somewhat new to investing. Made 4x my money and lost 3/4 of that Nov-Feb. As a problem solving engineer in automotive I’m Very keen on your charting analysis…and wish you were not in retirement ha! What software do you go to analyze the charts?
These analyses are excellent!! Thank You for sharing!
Thank you
Larry is the best. 100%.
Thanks Larry.
Good stuff, thank you larry
So glad you put this webinar together Larry. You are the voice of reason that we all need from time to time to give us a reality check. I buy your annual forecast every year and it keeps me level headed and on track with all my trading. Like I have said before, you are the Yoda of trading. Thanks for everything, I am super grateful:)
Thanks for sharing.
Another amazing video Larry. I have always appreciated all your content, the best in the business.
Thank you, Larry!
How timely! The last time I saw you was you with your jacket over the shoulder calling market bottom during the covid crash. I was like is he nuts? Now I know why you were the one and only nut who stuck his neck out calling bottom during maximum fear in the market and proven totally right. Thanks again for the invaluable lessons. I will never forget that confidence look with the jacket over the shoulder in March 2020. Please do another video on 4/28.
I remember that too! I was telling all my trading friends and they were 100% skeptical. Now they all love Larry!
@@tradingbuddysystem7416 Thank you sir!
Q: what if instead of a ten-year cycle (1952, 62, etc.) we calculate a four-year cycle (the year of the midterm elections 2022, 2018, etc.). I'll try to make such a chart tomorrow.
I hope to read your thoughts on this idea here.
One question please: what about what the Decennial Cycle reveals us, that we will have more downside into May/June? Thank you very much Mr Williams and stockcharts for histing all these LW youtube events!
@@blazetrader thank you, Larry! I appreciate all your work tremendously!
@@blazetrader One bearish concern though: Russell 2k shows perfect Stage 4 beginning as per Stan Weinstein's and Wyckoff's studies on the wkly chart: a wide several-month Stage 3 and now early in Stage 4 (the Decline Phase) after a retest of the down breakout at $210 for IWM etf, setting 210 as resistance aftyer Stage-3 support. Therefore, after this retest, we should Russell 2000 falling for at least several weeks to complete S4.
@@flavours8611 iWM and SPY have been uncorrelated since Nov 2020, so I don’t see your point.
This is impeccable timing if this is indeed a bottom (with peak geopolitical worries at the moment). If this is a bottom, do you think we would also see a rebound with high growth high multiple tech and biotech stocks, like ARKK and XBI? Thanks!
Hi Larry, I bought your annual forecast and it says we should be looking for weakness in stocks about right now, contrary of what you are saying right know....!!! little confused, also in the oil market!!
My fear is running out of hot sauce for my conch chowder. Great job Larry
21:10... it looks like the cycle forecast predicts a negative year for 2022 - is that a correct interpretation???
@@blazetrader Thanks for the reply…. the price line crosses into 2022 at a higher point than it crosses into 2023. It’s in a downtrend for a 3/4 of the year. How is that not negative for the year?
Hey Larry…Don you have any data regarding situation like Ukraine going on tonight.
I’m curious about the drastic decline since the start…would this be just a discount for buying opportunities.
Another excellent video from one of the greatest! Larry, whenever you actually retire will your stockcharts indicators continue to be updated with data on their backend to make sure that indicators such as money flow, accumulation, sentiment, Williams value, etc. are still accurate? Thanks again!
Ok. I'm calmed down now. Thank you again Larry. Time to make money off the lemmings again though.
Great presentation as always not just answer but WHY, as with trading not just the right answer but why you have that answer not for the present but the reason why for the futures decisions. 1982 comment of previous high inflation number, memory serves that was Reagan and read a time he doubted his decisions to slow Carters money policy. A low point in his career as president, and a time he actively supported a young senate canidate from Montana. A better time than 1982 would probably seen a different election result for that support.. Vix/Trin still adding for market info, thanks again for your insight on that subject. As always great insights. thanks Steve (Gate)
Really like the content and how Larry elaborate everything together. Big thumbs up
Thank you sir!
Q: what if instead of a ten-year cycle (1952, 62, etc.) we calculate a four-year cycle (the year of the midterm elections 2022, 2018, etc.). I'll try to make such a chart tomorrow.
I hope to read your thoughts on this idea here.
@@blazetrader Yes, sir! You are absolutely right! I watched Your previous performance on my PC, but I left a comment on another video that was published later..)) That is, I made a mistake and commented on the wrong video that I wanted! In any case, thanks for Your answer! I'm starting to watch this video!
Thank you Larry. I wished I had your skills and be able to analyze the market as deeply as you do. Do you run or have classes for that?
Ha Ha always great to have a ``bearer`` of good news thanks a lot that was great. 👍
Very insightful, Larry. Thank you
I think the negative wild card is if Russia invades Ukraine then bull market is at risk.
@@blazetrader You were 100 % right Larry !! Thursday was the bottom. Last week, I saw Jim Cramer commented on your forecast.
Dear Larry, Thank you very much for this video!
I bought your 2022 FORECAST. With the current political situation "Russia-Ucrania", would the forecasts for the 2022 still be valid?
According to your comments if there is a war or a big conflict there would be a big sell off. Every day we are getting closer to an armed conflict...
Best of health and happiness!
@@blazetrader Thanks Larry!
Larry, you are the best! Thanks so much for your guidance.
Thanks Larry! I have missed your weekly Larry TV so much that I wish it could come back, maybe Louise can take your place as the commentator and you just sit back and relax as a consultant to her. Miss you guys!
@@blazetrader These are the years you should enjoy as you see fit. That’s what I tell my 79 y/o father. Larry, you sound good, coherent and lively. May you be blessed with many more years.
Always love to hear your perspective. Your May-April 2020 call was perfect. Everyone was bearish, you were the lone voice saying we're going higher. Thanks Larry, God bless
Amazing content! So much wisdom from a LEGEND. Thank you isn't anywhere near enough for this video
Mr. Williams you are the best of the best. Money in the bank. Thank you for all your valuable and awesome knowledge! All the best.
Thank you Larry! I really enjoyed your video.
I think the better question is in which month will the bear market arrive this year.
From my view, Probability of a recession from FRED is not something that we can rely as a leading indicator. It is updated only once a month and the provided example of Feb 2020 and Mar 2020 couldn’t warn the investors in advance. By the time we got the probability for Mar 2020, the stock market has already crashed. Basically it moved from 0.08 in Feb 2020 to 100 in Mar 2020. Therefore, it being low at the moment does not give any positive signal to me.
Hi Larry, Wow what a treat. Thanks so much so this special presentation. I didn't understand the relationship re Gold bullion and the stock market chart. I understand stock market is undervalued vs Gold bullion. I am clarifying if the Gold bullion market is also undervalued as well as the stock market. Kindly clarify. Thanks so much for everything you do. Kind regards
@@blazetrader Hi Larry, You were bang on on the stock market as usual. I purchased the annual newsletter. The newsletter forecast re: Gold bullion , says will start to go down end of February,2022. I am quite symathetic to the Ukranian people, can't imagine, what will be the end result. I am wondering, does the Gold forecast change as a result of the Ukranian / Russia war, for example, will Goild bullion continue it's uptrend in March,2022. Does the forecast stand regardless of the Russia Ukranian crises. Thanks so much for everything you do.
Larry, thank you for your work as usual, but at 10:05, are you implying that technical analysis has no value when it comes to recessional pullbacks? or ?
@@blazetrader it does, thanks for your input as always
Larry W. Always delivers! Thank you for sharing your thoughts and views of the markets right now. Been very bullish lately mainly due to all the fear and also many areas of the market that have corrected so much already. Love the content & great to have things "confirmed". Amazing work as usual. Bless 🙏
Thanks Larry - always enjoy your perspective
Not so sure the value of gold to stock market applies when we we are in a period of very high inflation and people are bidding up gold. I'd put an quetion on that indicator.
@@blazetrader Very kind comment. Thanks for the video it provided very useful information. I'm now a new subscriber.
Thanks Larry for your analysis.
Thank you Larry Clear and objective as always!
The first chart about 1982 - 1984 stock market growth is not really relevant. stock market turned bullish around Aug 1982 and that's not when the inflation was on its peak. It was actually around the time when the inflation was well under control with CPI index of 5.85. CPI peak actually around Feb 1980 and from 1980 to 1982 while CPI was being controlled, the market was bearish throughout, which might be more similar to what we are going through now.
@@blazetrader Thanks Larry for the comment. I just found that I forgot to express my appreciation. I really appreciate all your effort invested in this video creation. I learned so much from your video and, currently, I'm doing my own research to understand information you have presented better. I'm a novice investor but want to be a responsible one.
Thank you Larry! Great work here and great analysis of the real situation with prove points to understand closely the situation 👌
Thank you, Larry
Very informative video, especially for new traders like myself, thank you Larry!
Some say Doomsday???? Really? Great video Larry.
#3 fear on your list is by far the scariest! 😬
Does your analysis change given the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the increase in energy costs which will increase inflation?
How do I find WillVal in stock charts? Thank you.
It's part of Larrys "Stock Trading Starter Pack" ACP plugin. You can read about it here: schrts.co/WNdjEBsW
@@StockChartsTV What about a discount or sale on this product?)
@johnatan No sales or discounts that I'm aware of, but you can keep an eye out for any that might come in the future. For what it's worth, I think Larry's tools are well worth the investment, but that's a decision you'll have to make for yourself.
@@StockChartsTV Excellent, thank you! I think you are right.
Larry is a God
Can you elaborate a bit more on the JP Morgan indicator of VIX rises by more than 50% of its 1-month MA? Is this the same as a 30 MA set up on a daily chart?
Don't need a chart for that metric. It Would not have worked Well in March 2020, the worse of the decline happened afterwards. The vix more than doubled.
Great guidance during these tumultuous times! Thank you
Hi Larry! Thank you for your amazing comment for market .. I needed that!
I have your forecast 2022, I have your Stock Trading Course… and I am very happy with all great information you give to us! I wish you all Helth and Happiness, you deserve everything the best!
I am so sorry , that you don’t have some subscription every month.. I miss you!
Good luck and I appreciate very much your updates for the market!
Thank you! Thank you! Thank you 🙏
Am I seeing things? it seems that the vix indicator was up by more than 50% back in 2020 while the market was only half way on it's downward spiral when I backtested the vix index.
Jeremy Grantham take notice...
Thanks so much, very educational!
But the CB Leading Index is not forwarding looking, it is laggard. Typically for a 100 years history US CPI does not cross over 8.5%; so the Fed has to work its hiking cycle end QT. NYSE margins are at all time highs, until they get a wash out....it is not time to hit the long term BUY & HOLD. A fair level on the S&P500 is probably around 4100. Joe Biden can't do a Ukraine response; war spikes inflationary pressures & the Fed can't do its inflation taming. Historically mid-term elections dampens the bulls. The SPX calls optionality is skewed towards Nov-Dec, ie the bulls are timed for the bottom then & there. We probably bump around in a highly volatile market.
I don't think FED has a choice because the next FOMC meeting is very far away and the mid term election is in November. Biden told Powell to put inflation the first priority. The sooner FED deals with the inflation, the sooner inflation may be under control: at least, the asset class such as real estate, the stock price and the car price will have to drop. Those who planned for early retirement may be forced to go back to work... therefore, the labor costs can be lower when the labor supply increase. Also, FED probably cares about the US reserve currency status in the world...The bubble needs to be burst...the sooner the less pain for everyone
Thank You Sir 🙏 😃
Thanks Larry. I simply see no Bear in the NYA index.