DV Lottery Greencard | DV2024 Europe CEAC data analysis and predictions!!!
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- Опубліковано 27 чер 2024
- DV Lottery Greencard
Are you a DV2024 winner, especially from the EU region - well you need to watch this video. The CEAC data was published on Monday, and I have promised to produce a video for each region to explain what I can about how the next few months will go. In this video I explain what numbers are in a safe range and what factors make me suggest that range.
Please remember, these are projections - very much an educated guess, but a guess nonetheless. I am not 100% confident in these numbers and I don't advise anyone takes these projections as a certainty.
You can ask questions at:
britsimonsays.com/
#DVlottery #Greencardlottery #greencard #dv2024 #BritSimon #Europe - Розваги
Man you are the best.the way you help us may God bless you abundantly.
Many thanks for your effort to keep us informed!
Right in time! I just grabbed myself a cup of coffee!
Dear Simon
Thanks for the work you are doing. Very helpful
Kind regards
Thank you for this video, number EU31K here, there is still hope 🍀😊
thanks a lot for giving such useful informations. please , could you do projections and predictions for Uzbekistan
Thank You!
Thanks a lot for the analysis and the hard work across the months for this DV 2024.
I have EU45k and I can now grieve in peace.
I will still monitor the numbers, and have my Ds260 ready for summer just in case. I also will do AoS as I have a J1 visa already.
Thanks!
That's exactly the right attitude. You are now informed, but alert just in case something unexpected happens. But at least you won't be obsessed every minute and then suddenly shocked.
Thank you for your analysis! Now I’ll be sleeping well with my 19k in Warsaw embassy. Though the question, last year it was a giant cut-off leap between January and February bulletins. Should we expect the same this time?
VB progress is a bit more complex, but in general the next three or four bulletins are the ones that drive the busier scheduling months.
Thanks for all your work and the insights you provide. Up until I watched the EU video I was quite hopeful with a EU41XXX number as I thought this would be similar to last year, obviously didn't know that EU got lucky and benefited from poor performance from other continents last year...No good news but better now than making career choices based on incorrect assumption and I rather be positively surprised mid year....
Exactly. You have some chance, but at least you can get in the right mindset. Best of luck to you!
Dear Brit Simon.
Thank you for such an informative video.
We have the following situation: our case was in cut off in January, we were not invited for interview. Decided to wait for the February bulletin, silence again.
Could you please share your thoughts
, do you recommend to unlock the case and sending it again?
What are our overall chances of being invited to an interview based on your experience and knowledge.
Mr Saiman, situation of sri lanka is different to what you said on 2024/01/03. You have lot of viewers in sri lanka and I am one of them. Please give us a predition
Hello Simon, thank you soo much for your prediction!:) I’m from Serbia, with the number 307XX. I have high hopes, altough really disappointed with the latest bulletin moving up for 500 only for May. Are the current numbers changing your prediciton for 2024? Are you surprised as well? Also, do you know when is the latest we can get the invite, September? Cheers and thanks again!
Hello, thank you for all the work you have done!!
My case number is around EU9000 from ANKARA. So far the latest case number that they have scheduled interviews is EU3900 for February. I feel like they are worse than last year :(
Should I be worried?
Thanks.
I don't know - because I can't see the future.
Thanks Simon, it helps a lot in my case as I needed to commit lots of money for AOS process. So I think I won't pay the application fee since my Case is EU50k
Well you wouldn't be able to submit your package until current anyway, but yeah, at least you can avoid the medical fees.
Hello Mr. Simon, how are you? I am writing to you from Turkey, I won dv2024 and case number is 53XX. I have my hesitations about Ankara, when do you think I will have an interview? Thanks for your analysis.
Simon I have case 31000, tell me how close my case is to receiving a visa?
Hi Simon, thank you for your work, appreciated.
I haven’t won anything, but I am getting hooked to your videos and explanations. I have a question, maybe a silly one. I understand now how the region works (mine is EU), however I am confused about countries in a region. I got the impression from your Asia video that a specific country has a specific range in that region. e.g. France (or Germany or any other country) may not go current because the case numbers for it are between 35k-36k. Is it right? Or Russia will go current bc its case numbers are between 3k-8k.
Also, am I to deduct that we will not see case numbers from France outside of the 35k-36k range? Or that there will not be any case numbers from Russia outside of the 3k-8k? (These numbers are just assumptions, not real, if anyone wondered)
Am I making sense?
Thank you for the video and the dedication, it sure is a lot of work on your end, and it is highly appreciated.
Wishing a Happy and Healthy New Year to you and your family ❤
Your assumption/impression is incorrect. Within a region the draw is random so a country (not limited one) like France could have winners anywhere in the range. Assuming the number of winners for that country is large enough to meet statistical norms, then the winners would be evenly spread over the full range. However, if the number of winners for that country were super small, then that could ruin the random appearance/even spread.
Limited countries (countries like Uzbekistand and Russia in EU region) confuse this a little because they have so many more entries than the other countries. They get a high frequency of selectees, and therefore meet a draw cap (around 5500 in DV2024) faster as the draw is happening, and get "limited" from a certain number onwards. For Uzbekistan, that happened at about case number 17k, so there are only Uzbek cases under 17k and none from that point forward. They only have low numbers. Some people think that is unfair BUT it actually means that Uzbeks had a lower chance of selection than non limited countries. If you really want to understand better look on my blog for articles and videos where I meantion the draw process.
britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/
Hello Mr. Britt, I Dont understand English so good, can you say me what is the highest number for europe? I watched the video but my English is bad And I dont understand, and for my language is not chaption, thank you
Hello Simon,
Thank you for the very well explained analysis!
Case No: EU28K+ I can say I am a bit relieved, however it is still on the edge for me and nothing is certain until I see the email.
Do you think the worst case scenario, it can get lower than 28K?
Thanks in advance for your reply!
I guess we will see...
Hello, my case number is 300XX. I am from Azerbaijan, normally I was supposed to enter Georgia, but I currently live in Poland and was transferred here. Is this a logical step?
Hello, thank you! But what is the column selectees(49119)?
That was DV2023 selectees for each region, 49119 being the number for AF region.
Do the countrys in Europe matter? For example if you are from Croatia where only 30 people were selected, is there a higher chance you will be interviewed? Or do we depend on other countries on Europe? Does it matter if we got higher case number 37000 for example but we are from a smaller country?
Nope
Hello Simon and thank you for your help! Could you ,please, explain how did you get a 15% non response rate? What was the year that was an actual non response rate? Thank you
The NR is not published. It is assumed based on the data.
@@BritSimon,you probably mean 15% from the total case numbers including holes. If we look at percentages of non-responders from real case numbers it is 25-30% isn’t it?
Hello Simon. My case number 36xxx from Tajikistan . What do you thinks how much the probability of getting chance for the interview ?
That is answered in the video.
Hi Simon Can you explain why in previous years people in front of them more than 25k cases in AF but they are still getting visas ??
I don't understand your question.
Dear Simon,
If someone is eligible for AoS, could he/she decide to proceed with CP? So he/she will leave USA and go to Europe for the process?
Thanks a lot
Yes, that is an option.
Hello! I know when visa bulletin of March Will be released?
8th to the 15th of each month
Hello dear Simon,
I really appreciate your time and information, I am from Ethiopia CN AF32k and I have located my interview to Naples, Italy. How do you rate this chance and path from your years of experience. how do you rate my choice and the embassy of US in Naples?
Thank you so much.
Naples is fine.
Sir, sorry for my question, it is outside the topic of this video. I watched the video about Africa and became very afraid, especially since I am from Algeria, which is one of the exceptional countries, and my number is 60.7k. I think this is the end of the dream.
Just don't lose hope, but at the same time, live like you haven't won the lottery, because it is not worthy to JUST wait you know
You are being overly pessimistic. You still have chances.
@@BritSimon I hope I get my chance. Thanks for the reply, Mr.Simon
What about Albania
What about EU24600case number? Is that high?
Watch the video rather than asking a question that is answered in the video...
June bulletin has 21000 for EU, if I have 2024EU17xxx how soon would I get an appointment letter in Ankara
Ankara is very backlogged and I doubt they will schedule that number.
Hi,BritSinon.
Why you always skipping Bulgaria and never talk to?
Out of 142000 people selected, 142 are from Bulgaria....
First comment
Hey BritSimon, thank you so much for your Videos! I love them and really appreciate all of your hard work. We "play" the lottery since 20 years and finally got selected. Case No.: EU18XXX
I hope we will get our interview :) Again thank you for all your information, really appreciate it.
I'm sending you some good luck wishes!!!