Major Warning Signs Of This Stock Market Bubble
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- Опубліковано 9 чер 2024
- Bubbles are part of our past and they’ll always be part of our future. The goal of this video is to help you prepare for market bubbles that will inevitably happen and show you the warning signs to watch out for. Paul Gabrail goes deep into the history of the stock market and the emotional side of investing, especially as stocks fall.
#everythingmoney #valueinvesting #bubble
0:00 Bubbles are inevitable
0:57 What does the story say now…
2:11 Stock market history
3:17 The emotional side of things
5:57 This bubble’s posterchild
7:01 Birth of a new bull-run
7:53 The turning point
10:22 What now
11:11 3 major questions
12:38 When the market crashes
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Tags: stock market, stock market crash, stock market recession, recession, stock market bubble, stock bubble, stock market bubble burst, warnings signs of a stock market bubble, major warning signs of a stock market bubble, stock market bubble warning signs, stock market bubble warning signs to watch, market crash, market bubble, stock market investing, value investing
The amount of people telling me “nvda is still undervalued” at 900/share was the biggest sign that the top was near.
Absolutely - GC
There portfolios prolly down like 40% 🤣
Didn't Paul lose his pants on nvda short?
@@nokilatu2874 It went up 300% in few months I doubt they are crying
@@nokilatu2874 what?
Buying a stock is easy, but buying the right stock without a time-tested strategy is incredibly hard. Hence what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist? I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $560K for sometime now, my major challenge is not knowing the best entry and exit strategie;s ... I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.
Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
Svetlana Sarkisian Chowdhury is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Thank you for this tip.
An event I've been patiently waiting for.
Thanks for following us - GC
Thank you, Paul! Have a good weekend!
Thanks... you too - GC
This channel has helped me 10 fold, my mindset needed to change, helped me get my emotions in check, I appreciate what you all do over there. Look forward to continuing to learn and grow as an investor.
Our pleasure!Thanks for the kind words ! AP
Buffet... “We haven't the faintest idea what the stock market is gonna do when it opens on Monday - we never have,” "I don't think we've ever made a decision where either one of us has either said or been thinking: ‘We should buy or sell based on what the market is going to do,’" “market timing is both impossible and stupid”
Thanks for following us - GC
Just live 99 years like munger good 👍
@@KenjiEspresso😂
Excellent video Paul. Keep up the great work
Thanks for the support ! AP
thanks for sharing but im all good with my consistent earnings with coach spencer
he's mostly on Telegrams
using this user name
tradinghold 7
his got a nice credential and also very dependable
seen this name being praised on an article i was reading
Thank you
Thanks for the comment .AP
First signs of market trouble is when the leaders start falling apart one by one. Tesla, Apple, Google, ExxonMobil, etc have been trading in wide trading ranges at the top for months. That's distribution (selling off). Add layoffs to the mix.
Good comment - GC
Thanks for all the great information. Im from Peru 🇵🇪
Thanks for watching! - GC
I like and agree with this video
Good vid Paul
Much appreciated ! AP
Paul, first of all thank you for your content, you are my go to on UA-cam and really look up to you when I think of how to deal with my investments. Been following your channel for years now.
I wanted to ask you, where did you learn what you know, books, degree, courses? I would love to subscribe to you stock analyser tool but have no idea how to reason around the numbers you put in, where can I learn more in depth? Investopedia?
As far I heard a bit of everything , he made mistakes obviously just like everyone , and his mindset evolved . AP
Your thoughts on HUMA??
Took half the words out my mouth.. subbed
Welcome aboard - GC
Why did you took the tesla video offline? I was very exited to watch it
This video is 🔥
The best video yet! No other channel like it
100 % still do not understand, there are not millions following them, I believe anyone following them will do great in the market, problem is other sites selling get rich quick stocks and there are too many to name
Glad you think so!AP
Good video! Get some good jumbo shrimp this weekend!
paul if i my ask, whats the point of having some cash to buy at a crash if the inflation hit before? isnt assets (stocks) a better value in such matter? thanks..
You can make your cash work on short term bonds , so you can have it ready to buy .AP
Paul love your channel and watch all the time. PFE stock is one of the most hated stocks in the market and is way overdone to the down side in my opinion. With its 6.5 percent dividend and new drugs coming on line in the future should this stock not be trading in the mid 30s? I have a sizable position at around 26 am I wrong on this one
Love this Chanel 😂
What do you guys think about MNMD?
Will have to give it a look .AP
1982, if me memory is close, 10 year was 14%, was inflation the cause or the competition of fixed income kept equities at bay?
Value investing = "sell when SPY is expensive; buy when SPY is cheap." The problem is that there are very few entry and exit points and how do you know when it is expensive or cheap?
Trend trading = "buy when SPY rising in a trend; sell when SPY breaks below trend." This is has many entry and exit points and can be done by computer trading algorithms.
Just dca and sell when approaching retirement , doing trends its something completely different , that some of the guys get thought by Moe .AP
This is a buying opportunity. News is super scary. The war is getting worse, markets are overvalued, Fed isn’t cutting rates, inflation still going.
How much more scary bad information can they pile on? I bought Friday. I’ll be buying tomorrow as well, and if continues to correct I’ll continue buying
Thats the exact strategy .AP
Hi Paul..I recall you did mention in one of your videos that once Apple stock price plunges, that is a sign of probably the 'bubble bursting'. Apple stock price is beginning to slide down..I been waiting for the moment when I can deploy my 'war chest' cash into quality stocks like this when Mr Market shows up with huge discounts...
You can do it - GC
Finally getting paid to wait, My finger itching to add more Tesla, but I hear you.
The things that is so wonderful about buying at bottoms is that you don't have to buy a ton to make a huge difference in your future wealth. Always have some cash!
Good comment - GC
At what valuation level are gold and silver miners then?
The thing is that they have to be your valuations ,not ours .AP
Read Security Analysis.
What about cash, how much should you keep?
I suggest buying the new tesla innovation shares at this point as they are relatively cheap and are sure to yield dividends long-term
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios in the last 3rd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
What happened to the 8 pillars?
Paul is sounding more and more like Phil Town every day.
All investors start sounding the same when they all have the same mindset .AP
I swear I saw this video 2 months ago - did you reupload it?
No , but we always preach the same .AP
It's easy to say all this stuff ones the stock market drops.
Paul’s been saying this for 2.5-3 years now. One thing about Everything money, they have a philosophy and they stick to it. Never have I seen them change their opinions to get more views or popularity
@@user-bo9ox7iu1o They've been wrong forever.
If you think so go back to our videos and you will see its not like that .AP
I wonder if overvaluation we see isn't caused by all these new investors entering the market, because it is easier to understand how market works now than it was 15 or 20 years ago. I'm not sure how much did US changed in that time, but my friends says, they were barely conscious of stock market existence, and even if they wanted to invest, they didn't know how. I guess it doesn't explain entire overvaluation, but meaby part of it is caused by easier access to stock market.
Still DCAing into Voo but have lots of cash on the side waiting to deploy
Thats awesome .AP
Paul, I agree with almost everything you say. But I don’t on your 90% overvalued thesis. The current P/E ratio is 21. The average long term is 17. This is around a 25% overvaluation. With your theory, the P/E should be around 12 (21 divided by 1.9) which doesn’t make any sense.
Great stuff ....tx for sharing - GC
The PE of what? S&P 500 is almost 27
You are talking about forward PE. That in itself is speculative. The only truly objective measure is trailing PE.
@@Nemi51500515 The market is forward looking you 🤡
Paul whenever he say bubble you know it going rally..
Investing and tolerating red days become easier when you know how much you should be investing.. invest what you can afford to lose .. especially if you have one source of income
Great stuff - GC
I wanted to put more cash into A.I. last year. I did buy, but after what happened to me in 2022, I was very cautious about how much I deployed. That won’t happen again. I bought 3 month treasury bills to park cash in January and they just expired. I have about 60% cash, and will just sit back and wait. I need a black swan event baby. But I’ll take a -20-30% bear market. We all know what happens when price of hype stocks do a straight line up. It’s impossible to continue at that rate.
Ladies and Gentlemen. Man your cash stacks, we’re going dip buying!
I'm not saying the market is fair valued, but doesn't it make sense that as the barriors to entry to the stock market are basically gone and more and more people learn to invest that over time the market would hold a higher overall PE or market to GDP ratio because more and more money is in the market?
OMG doing puts , shorting ARM has been amazing..made more money shorting them than i did during entire fake bull market we have/had
Not sure this is a bubble. But valuations are high.
Perma bear Paul is back! This is why we love him. He hasn't changed at all, haha. The truth is that not everything is overvalued, but some things are as always. Stay invested, be wise and picky, we'll diversified, and big gains, and lots of beautiful women are ahead.
I think the reality is. At any giving time. The average joe has all his/her money invested. Whether in an etf or individual stocks. So when the evanescence of a crash takes place. Most can't take advantage of the falling prices. That's why most fear crashes. Crashes are less scary when you have money available and ready to deploy. Matter of fact. When you have available money, you have a different mindset. You actually welcome crashes! Especially when you been sitting on pile of cash for along time! Morale of the story. Have a strategy. Always have cash on hand. Because falling stocks prices are inexorable. It will happen at some point. And when it does you want to be ready!
Buy the dip!
This is a window of opportunity to get as much of the latest tesla innovation shares as possible considering the dip
Parking half of my money into the s&p n the other half to buy more when the bubble burst n buy great company..
Good strategy - GC
ETF fund flows don't lie: for everyone who says they buy more when stocks are getting cheaper, there are outnumbered 10:1 by those who dump their position.
Here's the thing: this is a feature, not a bug. In order for the market to go higher you need to flush out the weak holders.
All that anyone has to do is just LOOK at the way the charts have gone up, forget the p/e ratio etc just look, and common sense should tell you things are way overvalued
Micheal Jackson loved bubbles.
Thanks for leaving a comment .AP
Every invester always say nothing beats the S&P500, but i disagree. Annualized, people's emotions will always beat it
I invested in long short positions (some are ultraX2) and i am really dieing for this crash
I suggest buying the new tesla innovation shares at this point as they are relatively cheap and are sure to yield long-term profits
@@Christineperkins-uw8ow what are tesla innovation shares?
Or you mean regular tesla stock and you are just joking?
@etieldagan3306 LOL I'm not joking
They're those shares that represent tesla's cutting-edge ideas and progress.
Are you on nsta so I exp!ian better?
I'll try to drop mine
@@etieldagan3306 pm @christine perkins1 👍
I started investing in November 2021 - at this point, I'm more comfortable being in the red than in the green, lol.
I hope you do better ! AP
I sold my nvidia stocks 7 months ago thinking we were in a AI bubble
The Robbo taxi is a fairy tale, story without numbers.. Stock heading sub $100 by year end.. EV blood bath, race to the bottom…
They need to focus on the Tesla 2 model to halt the slide.. Else sub 100 without question..
Just did over 5000 miles with my Tesla in full self driving in 13 days. It’ll be a reality for everyone soon enough.
now they're including government spending in GDP so the imbalance is even more profound
Cool - GC
Qualified investors are selling MAG7 and buying Groq. Small timers can't buy Groq until it goes public.
This is a window to get as much of the latest tesla innovation shares as possible considering the dip
As soon as you hear "things are different now" or "no old rules don't apply anymore" run for the exit door.
Totally true .AP
Hey Paul, companies are actually posting growth and more importantly profit during this rally in comparison to the 2000 bubble where it was all just stories and less numbers.
Thanks for sharing - GC
Ok now that you guys made this video I am 100% sure the bull run continues lol
pushing out all the shit and garbage!!! should we invest WM?
Do you my man...thanks for the note - GC
Great moat, but a bit overpriced at the moment in my opinion. Keep in mind no deep dive from my side. But that's a nice joke
❤❤❤❤
We aren't a bubble.
Source: I've read the report. (I can't read)
Nice one - GC
✅💎📈
Well maybe the us debt market is in a bubble based on his analysis
I’ve been praying mr market for for few years for this type of red days
Pray more.. need a proper market sell off..
Keep watching my man - GC
Fallout from a decade of ultra low interest rates and QE
Print print print
Pump pump pump
Repeat repeat repeat
I won’t be buying now until 2026 onwards, while everyone else tries to catch a falling knife. 12 - 18 months of hell ahead across all sectors staring with growth stocks then moving across all stocks…
Good commnet - GC
👍👍 Thanks for the update! Despite the economic recession, I no longer depend on Government Grants since I acquire $86,400 weekly profits.
Great news! how did you get that?
It's all thanks to Silbert Mason @@swetaghale
It's all thanks to Silbert Mason.@@swetaghale
It's all thanks to Silbert Mason.
Wow I know Silber Mason. His platform maintains a unique perspective and is very transparent with their investors. Regardless of whether or not he outperforms. I will forever stay invested!
I’m pretty sure when warren buffet was a teenager they were still learning how to build pyramids
LOL .AP
Gold is up, Real estate is up, Stocks are up and we still have a trillion dollars in bonds waiting to be deployed above 6% YoY growth. The ONLY place to put money is STOCK MARKET I’m siding with Permabull!
soooooo buy more PYPL and BABA. okay!
Have a good weekend bro - GC
And 3M
🕒 Time Value of Money
When you entered a position, you entered a trade. Doesn't matter if you bought Microsoft 15 years ago and held a 15 year open trade. Trader math says:
1) 30% drawdown in your account needs 43% return to BREAK EVEN.
2) 50% drawdown needs a 100% to BREAK EVEN.
3) 60% drawdown needs a 150% return to BREAK EVEN.
Buy and hold + Dollar Cost Averaging in all market conditions is a fools errand. With the S&P 500 5yr return of 68% (13% per year), all you will is break even during the next bull markets. Breaking even will take years. Many "value" stocks never recover to former glory.
Most investors are watching accounts bleed. Then throw money into a the hole (dollar cost avg) during the crash to patch the bleeding. Then say they're smart for losing 30-60% of their profits. 😂 Instead of taking cashing out at tops.
Thnaks for sharing - GC
Stock pickers market. There's always a bull company somewhere.
Don’t listen to them guys!! sToNkS are baaaaaack and everything is going to keep PAMPING!! 🤩🤩🚀🚀📈
This is an event I absolutely do not care for. I'm a long term investor. I DCA 10 stocks and 2 ETFs no matter what since 2014.
I suggest buying the new tesla innovation shares at this point as they are relatively cheap and are sure to yield long-term profits
@@Christineperkins-uw8ow I've been TSLA holder since 2014. my current average is $76. It used to be below $30. 😀
@@joec.5009 It's nice talking to a fellow long-term tesla investor. Do you invest in tesla's new innovation shares?
Dow is not even 5% down from its record high. I’m not buying yet!
Good mindset - GC
Tesla is a bubble but there is obvious value there. 250B easy buy.
You’re correct.
Good stuff - GC
Janet Yellen disagrees.
He dose not show how he calculate his fictional over valuation? Based on future earnings? P/E? xD😅
Would love to see a crash. Over the 90 degree move
*ARK INVESTING… YA GOTTA WIPE OUT ALL THE SHI N GARBAGE* 😂😂
Nvidia down 20%.
Correction had to happen - GC
Not watched yet but i bet Mo is a no show
Do you miss Mo?
ADAP cancer treatment 📈
Blah blah blah
AI is going to destroy the market..Androids don't buy stock
NKLA a penny stock 😂😂😂
Only one day red. Paul is on here bragging again. Next week we might seee nvda go to $1000. In reality, short term predictions are impossible. Don't over estimate yourself paul. If you are so good, your wouldn't be losing your pants on NVDA short. LoL
Its been at least a month that the market has been coming down.AP
I get a lot of wisdom from your channel but not a single useful information
I bought Nike and starbucks this week im up 2 and 1%
Don't worry about short term gains .AP
@@EverythingMoney Its not that is more that im up then the market is down. And if i was a daytrader i would have made profits. If i buy and the market goes lower then next day. Then i made the wrong decision.
lol I want to short so bad 😂😂😂
Cryptocurrency and IBIT ETF will get you through this Brandon mess.
Buying a stock is easy, but buying the right stock without a time-tested strategy is incredibly hard. Hence what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist? I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $560K for sometime now, my major challenge is not knowing the best entry and exit strategie;s ... I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.
Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.