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Are Electric Vehicles at a Tipping Point?
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- Опубліковано 15 бер 2018
- Electric vehicles are set to overcome historic and significant hurdles: sticker price, range anxiety and limited model options. Annual sales are forecasted to jump from 1% today to 25% in 2030 and cross 50% by 2040. Nearly every major car maker has announced new models for EVs. By 2020, there will be 44 models of EVs available in North America.
Sven Beiker - Moderator & Keynote Speaker, Stanford GSB
Pat Romano - CEO, Chargepoint
Fred Kim - R&D Group Manager, Daimler Benz
Albert Liu - Director of Battery Technology, Lucid Motor
Please join us for a lively panel discussion with diverse electric vehicle experts as they provide their take on the future of the industry and tackle tough questions like:
What are the remaining technical, economic and political hurdles that will impact the mass adoption of EVs?
Charging infrastructure vs EVs - the chicken and the egg problem. What’s the right amount and mix of charging infrastructure?
Connected, Autonomous, Shared and Electric - How important is “electric” to this futuristic concept?
When will EVs be cheaper to own than conventional internal combustion engine vehicles?
Battery costs have fallen 74% since 2010 - what other technology opportunities exist i.e. new battery chemistry, economies of scale?
China’s EV targets outpace Europe and the US. What are the implications for traditional automakers and Silicon Valley startups?
California’s latest Executive Order targets 5 million EVs on the road by 2030. How do we get there?
March 2019 represented a tipping point in Norway as this was the first time that more than 50% of new cars sold in a month were fully electric.
The tipping point will occur a lot sooner than 2040 - in fact, the game will be all but over for ICE technology by 2028. Like many "academic analysts", these commentators calibrate progress a a LINEAR progression, whereas what happens in reality is that technology disruptions happen as exponential "S" curves. While what they say (ie: electric transport will dominate), they blinker themselves from a fundamental truth about disruptions - the acceleration with which they occur.
Oops. I've just written what you wrote 6 months ago. Watched the video and just started writing. Apologies.
Tony Seba, Clean Disruption.
The S curve has begun. Anyone buying an ICE car now will be stuck with a lemon, and playing musical chairs trying to get rid of it.
@@ahaveland Ha, just saw this pop up. Absolutely agree with you. So, in about 3-4 years time, maybe less, there are going to be quite a few people being pissed off and suggesting they weren't informed.
To quote: "Annual sales are forecasted to jump from 1% today to 25% in 2030 and cross 50% by 2040."
Way overly cautious. Typical linear adoption forecast when all paradigm shifting adoption rates are S curves.
You are asking OPEC about the EV adoption?! That's EPIC ! LOL
At 29:33 the Mercedes speaker says that in 2019 the Smart will become all electric with no gas versions and with the focus on e mobility solutions.
One year and 13 days after this presentation, Daimler announced a deal with China's biggest private automaker Geely to make Electric Smart cars.
They will be Chinese.
A sign of things to come.
Tesla has a huge factory in China as well.
After owning an electric car for a year and a half, there's NO WAY I'd even consider buying an ICE vehicle again.
These are so good! Thank you so much for adding light to the end of the tunnel.
Your forecast is too long and slow, next year will be the game changer because of solid state battery, the world can reach 50% for only 5 years time
Just wondering: Around 1:03, moderator sounds mega-irritated for a couple of seconds, I'm guessing it's because of the way the tech is handling the mic. Is that what that was all about?
At other points, this continues to be a problem. Clearly someone didn't plan the logistics of microphone use.
The main reason I don't drive an electric car is because I'm too poor to afford any car at all, electric or otherwise. And because I don't have a good parking spot nearby even if I could afford it. And because I've come to prefer public transport for most situations anyway. Here in Europe, we have good public transit networks.
I’d make the switch today were it an affordable purchase. Going the Tesla is more than twice the cost of my car. The Tesla model is ok, but they nibble the wrong end of the marketplace, I.e. luxury cars. The Chevy Bolt EV is $11000 more than my brand new car. I can go a long way on $11000 in gasoline and it is pay-as-you-go.
Buy a pre-owned low millage EV for 1/2 the new cost. I bought a 2016 LEAF with 1200 miles on it, from a dealer, for 1/2 the new cost.
I have no sound for this video... is it just me?
Listening to the amount of shit some of them are talking, you're better off without sound.
super caps with proprietary electronics to regulate current draw from the caps
Good discussion. The only way we'll have mass adoption of EV's is when the solid state Li-on battery comes out with rapid recharge time (10-15 min.), longer range (400 mi.), and lower prices for the cars, than what they are today. Fueling an EV is cheaper and more convenient, on a daily basis but long trips can be scary. I'm sure by 2020 - 2022, we'll see more mass adoption of EV's, with the new tech batteries.
How would one go about shorting gasoline station depots?
I like the way you think
Like the way you think
Please understand; 35.000 dollar is not an affordable price for the majority. Why can't nobody build a cheap E.V., One that you can just charge at home. To many manufacturers seem scared, how could you loose with a concept like this? that is the question!
Because they are expensive to make.
Industry insiders never understand exponential trends. Ive seen 3 different analysis now that say the cost of batteries is going to plummet over the next 5 years as production is coming online that is 8x todays levels. I know 2 that are saying EV's like the model 3 will cost less than a smart car today by 2025. ua-cam.com/video/2b3ttqYDwF0/v-deo.html
Yes, the costs plummet - but the speed of the plummet also slows exponentially. This means that whether you start developing your EV 5 years ago, or in a year, matters a lot for profitability. e.g. the Chevy Bolt is estimated to sell at a loss until 2021's battery prices.
This is why Nissan start work on their EV in 2005 but have no idea when they'll make money. They are sure the EV adoption will happen, but they have no idea of what timescale it'll happen on. Tesla start development in about 2004.. Jaguar start in 2013, still out of conviction. By the time Mercedes start their purpose-designed EV project in 2015, it's now more a of a "Ah, okay, we're almost at the tipping point, time to join in" decision.
Hey thanks, I have seen Toby Seba his work, but that was a few years ago years ago; thanks for the link.
peter four I agree and 35k seems high. Keep in mind that the cost of ownership is much lower. If the price hits 30k, it will be like buying a 25k or less car with only tires and tire rotations to buy for the life (essentially) of the car.
Facilitator of the talks sounds bias towards traditional auto
Alexander C - c
Got one question: Where does the electricity from your wall come from? Think the emission control system is better in a modern vehicle than it is in a coal or nuclear power plant? You bet it is.
Charles Murry, I have yet to see containment that can last 250,000 years to store nuclear waste. Mountain top removal to get the coal and fracking to get the natural gas do not seem to be benign ways of procuring energy.
Our current electrical use is only is only 20% of the energy we consume every year. Of that, only a small percentage is renewable. So electric car proponents want to dig into the 80% slice of the pie when they are nowhere close to switching the present grid load to renewables. Delusional.
Not only do we charge our car from our roof solar, our local electric company users zero coal fired sources.
Where do you live, West Coast?
The projections are nonsense. It’s price, price, price, price. Infrastructure needs much improvement.
Well, that was an hour of my life I’ll never get back.
duhh - JUST LIKE solar - no break through - just steady improvements - sadly, typical college clueless
Lithium the lightest, one of the most abundant minerals - potential to improve 2x perhaps 3x - we shall see.
Anywhere you find salt, you find Lithium, yes even in the oceans. (required mineral for almost all life)
at 5-7% per year, perhaps 10% per year improvements
I bet these guy hate mustang and BMW and Detroit diesel
Sven Beiker (Moderator & Keynote Speaker, Stanford GSB) and Fred Kim (R&D Group Manager, Daimler Benz) sounds like they want to stay with gasoline and diesel and using this event as a front to make it seems like are really for EVs. I wonder who sponsored this event? Hmmmm!
Most traditional dealerships, gas and diesel stations will go out of business if they do not convert their business model to meet the changes that are coming.
Folks, every industry goes through changes and disruptions from time to time.
The energy and transportation sectors are going through a massive shift and those that move with the shift should survive and even prosper, the rest will just be a memory.
Please remember, the only constant is change.
We don't have to look at environment, everything about ev is better than ice, in 10 years time nobody will want a ice car, then the ice car still on the road will last 10 years or so. THAT'S IS IT.
If there's mention of the environmental cost of heavy metals from EV cars, I missed it. So why can't we have inexpensive natural gas cars we can refuel from the natural gas systems in our homes? Probably because politicians can't easily skim off the top of the fuel supply.
Came for substance. Got propaganda about MIT and Lucid, etc. After 10 minutes I am out of here. The most superficial program about the most fundamental technology of our time. Bye.
I would like to say that the way a battery is charged from AC to DC uses electronics that consume 50% of of the energy in that process. Then using solid state electronics to drive an electric motor from a battery consumes 50% of the battery power to heat.
so 25% efficiency is the best one can get! best regards Thomas.
No idea where you get the percentages, but the electronics to charge are all switching circuits. 80% efficient on average.
Thomas, your efficiency numbers are way too low
where is Elon Musk????
This vid is useless. And I was trying to kill time before meeting friends...
A conversation about electric cars without Tesla, who organized this? Obviously trying to shift attention and take credit for an effort they still haven't made.
J de la Cruz dB FZ
Referrer ex
chicken and egg problem - Tesla got +400,000 $1000 deposit - why don't others?
Benz did save Tesla with $50million stock purchase -but they couldn't resist short term gains, sold their Tesla stock.
Benz made first Smart electric (then stopped, same as GM EV1). Tesla made the 2nd generation Smart electric and again Benz stopped. Now Benz introducing 3rd generation. go figure