Lackawanna Cut-Off - Update #21: A Presidential Prediction and the Cut-Off

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  • Опубліковано 17 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 151

  • @johnsherwood5901
    @johnsherwood5901 8 днів тому +1

    First off, thanks for all you do for this community and for the preservation of the cutoff. I’ve always respected and appreciated your in depth knowledge and insight and I have learned a lot over the years.
    I think the postmortem on this election in light of this video offers us a lot of useful information to use in the future. For one, there were many signs this election was potentially going this way. Alan Lichtman has had immense success with his 13 keys model, but this is only one model of many for predicting elections. Others, such as Nate Silver, have postulated the 13 keys can be subjective in nature and while Lichtman himself rejects the idea he had bias in determining the keys this cycle, an observer could see how bias could be introduced. Additionally, there were many unique factors in this election that his model clearly did not take into account. For that reason, I think we should look to a broader scope of prediction models in the future.
    I appreciate your ability to not attack one side or the other in your analysis, which sadly is not the norm in much online content these days. There are honest and decent people on both sides. In many of the analyses so far that I have read, there seems to be agreement that the democrat campaign failed to deliver a message that connected with moderate voters. Expanding on that, I think the cutoff is a great example of a project that democrats should have used (even if locally in the case of Bob Casey) to give moderate voters a better idea of how they want to help them. In PA, I don’t recall seeing any ads in print or TV that highlighted Casey’s work on this project; rather many were focused on attacking his opponent. We see the same at the national level; attacks on the other side while failing to deliver a clear message for the future did not connect with voters. As Sanders said, the democrat party abandoned the working class voter and in return those voters abandoned the party. Most of those voters (and many republicans I imagine) likely support projects like this, and I honestly don’t know why democrats didn’t pursue this argument for their agenda and instead chose to push polarizing and highly progressive ideas.
    Like you said in the latest video, while we don’t know the effects of the election results on this project, rarely does any project get all green lights. California high speed rail and the second ave subway are great examples of rail projects that faced and continue to face immense challenges. I chose to stay positive and believe in no way that this is the end of this project or of the USA. Frankly, I don’t see how the alarmist rhetoric achieves much; we heard similar arguments from the republicans during Obama’s time in office and it simply was not the end of the country like many wanted everyone to believe. For all the doubt that exists, our system of checks and balances is strong and limits immensely what any one administration can or can’t do.
    Thanks again for all you do and keep your head up.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  8 днів тому

      The Democratic Party can be partially blamed for the election debacle, but I tend to blame Biden himself. I think Harris was a weak candidate and was probably the reason why Biden chose her. He should have bowed out of a second term at least a year ago. As for Litchman, I think the unique circumstances did it. I don't think the keys are flawed. We'll see about Trump and how far he pushes his radical agenda. It is radical.

  • @de-fault_de-fault
    @de-fault_de-fault 2 місяці тому +15

    This is a public works project. Public works are public policy. Public policy gets made through the political process. Anybody grumbling that you’re “injecting politics” into this discussion is either arguing in bad faith or living in a fantasy world. One candidate is far more likely to continue this project than the other. In fact the other has now “promised” (sounds more like a threat) to involve Elon Musk, a man whose life’s work is to make sure nobody remembers trains have already been invented, so the distinction is pretty clear in terms of how this project would be impacted.

  • @ebt12
    @ebt12 2 місяці тому +2

    Always good to see an update. I look forward to the time when there is an update with work being done on the bridge in the background.

  • @EL-nc1cs
    @EL-nc1cs Місяць тому +3

    The Ride is over Chuck, that's the real world unfortunately, . Something for future Gen's to revive.

  • @M_vintage-f5b
    @M_vintage-f5b 15 днів тому +1

    Very good informative enjoyable video again.

  • @billwolverton1144
    @billwolverton1144 2 місяці тому +4

    Thanks for the update, Chuck. One thing I will disagree with you on is the economy. No, it is not doing well from my perspective and many others. I lost my job of 41 years as a direct result of the poor economic conditions and inflation that persist today because of the current administration in Washington DC. I can give you a lot of reasons, but it won't give me my job back.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +3

      Everyone has their own story and their rationale for their choice for president. I hope you make the right choice. I know I will.

  • @johnblair8146
    @johnblair8146 2 місяці тому +23

    Like it or not Railroading IS politics.

  • @stephenmacedo8796
    @stephenmacedo8796 2 місяці тому +1

    Thanks for the update Chuck. Followed you for a while. I live Hawaii and I will ride over the cutoff in my life. I hope. Looking forward to next update

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому

      That's makes you one of our most "distant" followers.

  • @Arturo-sm1tb
    @Arturo-sm1tb 2 місяці тому +11

    What a great way to start the day Chuck. Your video cheered me up today. You cannot argue with Lichtman's record...

  • @nolantherailfan5048
    @nolantherailfan5048 27 днів тому +1

    I'm so sick and tired of political interference. They need to stop playing politics with transit projects

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  24 дні тому

      Money in Washington is viewed as a zero sum game...if your project is vying for funding, someone is bound to think that it is competing with "their" funding. Maybe not on an individual basis (although that could be true) but at least in the aggregate. For example, the highway people may see transit as their enemy because transit might be getting funds that otherwise might go to them. Same with airline interests and trucking interests. Only in an ideal world--which will never exist--will this competition go away.

    • @PlayinWithMahWii
      @PlayinWithMahWii 13 днів тому

      @@LackawannaCutOff Looks like the project got 8.9 million in federal funding to PENNDOT. It's on Senator Casey's website. Great news!
      Admittedly, as you mentioned, there are a massive amount of interests against rail, not only from industries directly, but those adjacent to them (oil, large batteries for passenger cars). However, it seems like more politicians are coming around to the idea of revitalization of American passenger rail. Thanks to the "Buy America" rule, all of facilities for final assembly of future high speed rail locomotives and passenger cars **must** take place in the US. Ex: Siemens & Alstom in NY.
      As another example,, fewer cars are being made in the US nowadays. The number one seller of American made cars a few years ago wasn't even part of the Big 3, rather it was Toyota. If we are losing automobile manufacturing jobs, why not build up rail manufacturing to supplement those lost jobs?

  • @dougow3061
    @dougow3061 2 місяці тому +2

    Thanks Chuck for the update I am not a Harris fan but just hope this keeps going forward with NJ transit and Amtrak like to see the train pull into Blairstown again. like watching the Lake Cities in 1969 and also rode

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +1

      Fair enough. I see Harris as a lesser of evils.

  • @tomoconnell2320
    @tomoconnell2320 19 днів тому +1

    Chuck, is it true that the last of the funding for the full cutoff rebuild to launch service into Scranton just came through for Amtrak? Or are they still waiting on a few other sources of funding?

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  15 днів тому +1

      The funding you're referring to would upgrade the Pennsylvania portion of the Scranton Route between the Water Gap and Gouldsboro and replace the Slateford Road bridge that was filled in back in 1990.

    • @tomoconnell2320
      @tomoconnell2320 12 днів тому

      @@LackawannaCutOffhow much of the project remains unfunded? (In $ and % of total?)

  • @BobWalsh-n1p
    @BobWalsh-n1p 8 днів тому

    I can see some type of commuter service from New York to the Pocono’s but Amtrak to Scranton I’m not too sure about.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  8 днів тому

      Why? And who's going to run this "commuter service"?

  • @SteveRoberts5330
    @SteveRoberts5330 2 місяці тому +9

    Good morning Chuck! First, thanks for the video update! I, like many, are certainly looking forward to the next chapters in the series as well! Second, mixing politics and infotainment on UA-cam is always a difficult balance, but you managed it well here. Unfortunately, railroading and politics have been tied together for almost two hundred years in this country.
    People need to be honest about what their own values are, and many of us are hoping for a Harris Administration and looking forward to taking that modern-day "Phoebe Snow" from Penn Station here out to Scranton! Thank you again for all your work, Chuck! 🤞🏻2024

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +3

      I always prefer to be ahead of the times than lagging behind. It isn't as if Lichtman called heads for Harris and tails for Trump, which is what most pundits do.

    • @SteveRoberts5330
      @SteveRoberts5330 2 місяці тому +2

      @LackawannaCutOff I watched this segment and him speak on multiple networks live when it aired... Some people basically gasped despite the validity of the facts and previous track record. It actually is impressive when you look back from a historical perspective! Oh, and I forgot to mention - hopefully NJT gets the "nudge" you mentioned... Andover has been delayed way too long to add to any more delays now!

    • @1940limited
      @1940limited 2 місяці тому

      Nothing personal, but I gasp at the thought of a Harris Administration, Phoebe Snow or not. How can people be so blind to the failures of the Biden Admin. which will be carried over on steroids with Harris? I have a feeling your dream of a "Harris Admin." will not come about, or at least I hope so. The nation can't afford it.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +1

      OK, be more specific.

    • @SteveRoberts5330
      @SteveRoberts5330 2 місяці тому +1

      @LackawannaCutOff I was agreeing with you completely regarding Dr. Lichtman's methodology and historical accuracy in his predictions. As far as the Andover Service, you have in great detail on this channel depicted all the delays over the years in getting service started (Hudson Farms, etc) so I was also saying that I hope no further delays are incurred!

  • @berthayward7408
    @berthayward7408 2 місяці тому +1

    I am an avid follower of Mr. Walsh's efforts in support of the cutoff. I wish more influential people would listen up. Also, I wold love to have the name of the background music to play in my office, which I know would attract attention. Thank You.

  • @CharlesJLeechannel1000
    @CharlesJLeechannel1000 Місяць тому

    When will the Lackawanna Cutoff be completed? I want to see the completion of this.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  Місяць тому

      That's the $64,000 Question. We're working on it, however. Stay tuned.

  • @johns9571
    @johns9571 2 місяці тому +5

    The economy is not doing well for most working people. Their credit card debt is piling up and food prices continue to rise. Paying more than 30 cents per egg is just not sustainable, but moving on. The FRA is sitting on a pot of money that they will have to allocate; baring Congress acting to withdraw that money, highly unlikely regardless of the election outcome, the Scranton project should proceed. I just don't know how useful a train getting into NY-Penn at 9:34 AM is going to be. In addition, last year the tracks were ripped out between Montclair and Draw; eliminating an additional freight option for the Cutoff,and limiting the economic viability of the Cutoff to only passenger service.
    Thanks for the update Chuck!

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +5

      There won't be any freight option for the Cut-Off. That's dead issue.

    • @johns9571
      @johns9571 2 місяці тому +1

      I remember a few years back when Andover had finally resolved the culvert issue with Hudson Farms, the author of that article mentioning service to PA and possible freight use. I didn’t think freight was an option then because of the grade at Great Notch.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +1

      You can't get to Croxton Yard anymore. And trying to run long freights in and out of the commuter district was a problem back in the 70s. Now it's impossible.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому

      Who are "most people"? That's your opinion. Maybe it's most people you know. But that's different.

    • @jaydeeification
      @jaydeeification 2 місяці тому +1

      Congress can absolutely zero out the funding for Amtrak expansion (Corridor ID) that we hope would fund restoration of service on the Cutoff, in upcoming budgets. A GOP congress + President would be very bad for anyone who cares about passenger rail in the US, for this project and others

  • @mule1991
    @mule1991 2 місяці тому +4

    We NEED Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton, NOW! Politicians need to get out of the way!

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +3

      Well, the Allentown people dropped the ball when they failed to apply for the FRA's Corridor ID Program. So, it's a bit late now to be issuing demands that the service should happen "now". If you've been following the Scranton/Cut-Off saga, you'll understand that these things don't happen overnight. It takes a concerted effort for long periods of time. I wish it were otherwise, but that's the reality.

    • @johns9571
      @johns9571 2 місяці тому +1

      Add to that NS has very little interest in sharing the Lehigh Line with Amtrak. From about a mile west of Asbury, NJ to just East of Phillipsburg and then from Easton to Allentown, Amtrak would have to use the Lehigh Line.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому

      It would mean about 22 miles of new track if the Lehigh Line were chosen as the route. But it hasn't been chosen. And then there's the "small" detail of where's the funding going to come from?

  • @FreeJaffa92
    @FreeJaffa92 2 місяці тому +1

    At 12:40 they finishes the keys talk and moves to predictions.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому

      By "they" I presume you mean me.

    • @FreeJaffa92
      @FreeJaffa92 2 місяці тому +1

      @@LackawannaCutOff I only put down “they” because I assumed you have team of volunteers/ the name of the channel emphasizes the project over a person, also assumed you have an editor other than you.
      I don’t mean any disrespect and I appreciate your effort to educate.
      However I also know the 13 keys from other political UA-cam and I have limited time, so I posted the bookmark.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +1

      I draw upon the knowledge and expertise of others, and the channel is a reflection of that, but I'm it when it comes to producing the videos. Of course, I've interviewed a number of people, so their knowledge and expertise speaks for itself.

  • @electrictractiontrainsandt3063
    @electrictractiontrainsandt3063 2 місяці тому +2

    Great coverage like always! I always look forward to the next update!👍

  • @gregleuze6657
    @gregleuze6657 2 місяці тому

    With the sums of money being spent, of course this is going to be political. I would think that Trump would be interested in RR projects but probably more in the lines/tunnels between NY and NJ. I hope the Dr. is wrong but it will be what it will be.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +3

      Hmmm, I personally believe that Mr. Trump would try to kill the tunnel project à la Chris Christie. Anything remotely related to Mr. Biden will be a target (especially Amtrak).

  • @thoff1348
    @thoff1348 2 місяці тому +2

    Like the channel and all the updates, I am in NJ hope things get build. So another point to ponder, who is to say if Harris gets elected all Fed RR money goes to CA and fund their aggressive transit projects?

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +1

      I can't speak for FRA, but, for example, the California HSR project is in Step 1 just like Scranton service. One would think that they would try to build as many projects as possible. Whether Harris would push for a California project is unknown.

  • @ScottPalmer-mp1we
    @ScottPalmer-mp1we 2 місяці тому +1

    I found the negative discussion surrounding politics to be distasteful (not your fault). I think you're liberal and I'm conservative, but don't care. Unfortunately there are some blackguards on both sides who try to demonize the other side. If you are liberal, I would disagree with you on some issues, but still respect you.
    I do have one caveat with the analysis and that is that RFK Jr. going over to Trump is a positive for Trump. Everything I read said that RFK Jr. was more likely to take votes away from the Democrats than from Trump.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +2

      No, I'm a middle-of-the-road guy. Please note that you make the classic mistake of thinking that people who disagree with you are automatically "liberal" (Communist in the old days). You have a lot to learn my friend.

    • @ScottPalmer-mp1we
      @ScottPalmer-mp1we 2 місяці тому +1

      @@LackawannaCutOff Sorry, I shouldn't have assumed you are what I would call "liberal, and even if you were, I wouldn't mind. You have done admirable work to say the least and are top-notch in my book.
      Another subject pertaining to my area an Amtrak is that they are replacing the Connecticut River bridge for 1+ billion dollars. That's good news.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +3

      Thank you. At one point I was more along the lines of a Republican than a Democrat, and I do find the left-wing of the Democratic party annoying. But over time the Republican party has become intolerant of a number of things that I believe are important American ideals and I can't stomach it any more.

    • @ScottPalmer-mp1we
      @ScottPalmer-mp1we 2 місяці тому +2

      @@LackawannaCutOff Yeah, I'm conservative but not an idealogue nor am I even a Republican. I find some of the MAGA crowd to be annoying. Thanks for calling me out on my original post.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому

      Don't sweat it.

  • @x12z12
    @x12z12 2 місяці тому +3

    You can all relax, Trump wins in a landslide. I think most people are for little things like free speech, being able to afford to feed their family, and being able to actually vote for their candidate and not have them selected. Let's continue to teach people how to fish.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +2

      Of course he will. And he'll be a gracious and loving president to boot.

    • @x12z12
      @x12z12 2 місяці тому +1

      @@LackawannaCutOff I believe Trump will be positive to funding the cutoff as I think he believes in a whole transportation approach. He could probably run it better than the government to tell the truth. Love you videos by the way. Post more often.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +2

      Based on Project 2025 your "belief" is a fantasy.

  • @SolarPoweredPerson
    @SolarPoweredPerson 2 місяці тому +1

    Thanks for sharing these updates! I spent so much time exploring those tracks as a kid (or places where they used to be). It's literally my dream to be able to ride them home.

  • @brianfalzon6739
    @brianfalzon6739 2 місяці тому +1

    Thanks for the great coverage, keep us updated and hopefully everything will be ok in the future!

  • @billwhite9890
    @billwhite9890 2 місяці тому +2

    Thanks Chuck. Always look forward to your updates. Fingers crossed 🤞 this comes true.

  • @jaylipper1375
    @jaylipper1375 2 місяці тому +1

    Nicely done! Honest and fair analysis.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому

      Thank you. I expected some static because of, well, the message.

  • @1940limited
    @1940limited 2 місяці тому +20

    I'd sacrifice the cut-off before I'd put Harris in the White House! NJ Transit has had more than 10 years to get to Andover and done almost nothing.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +15

      Hmmm...New Jersey and the feds have collectively spent, depending how you count it, over $90 million on the acquisition and reactivation of the Cut-Off. But as far as "sacrificing" the Cut-Off is concerned, you're entitled to your opinion, but the Cut-Off would only be collateral damage to everything else that would be sacrificed.

    • @hlakegollum1
      @hlakegollum1 2 місяці тому +5

      @@LackawannaCutOff At the pace they are going, they may reach the Delaware in another 100 years.

    • @1940limited
      @1940limited 2 місяці тому +3

      @@LackawannaCutOff 90 million tax dollars spent and not much to show for it that I can see. Turning it over to Conrail was mistake #1. Or maybe go back further to EL selling the right of way for Rt. 80. Anyway, st the very least we should have been to Andover years ago. I admire your perseverance. I hope I live long enough to see something.

    • @Arturo-sm1tb
      @Arturo-sm1tb 2 місяці тому +2

      For any NJ commuter, or anyone knowing the benefit of running the line to Scranton, that's frankly crazy. American life will be fine with President Harris. Communists are not coming to take your money and guns. Train infrastructure will certainly be better off with Harris.

    • @gchristian7612
      @gchristian7612 2 місяці тому +6

      @1940limited Your point about progress on the cut off resonates with me. Under the leadership of Truesdale, the Cut Off was built in, what, 3 years? I live near the Kensico Dam which supplies NYC with fresh water. It was built in 4 years, 3 years ahead of schedule. With mules and steam engines. I realize that there is a lot more red tape these days, but I still have to ask: “what is taking so long?” (PS: Truesdale was a doer… a builder. Sounds a lot more like Trump, whose real estate projects would come in on time and under budget. I think we need more doer/builder leaders in our country.)

  • @paulw3106
    @paulw3106 2 місяці тому

    Was the Cutoff built solely with funding from the railroad?

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +4

      The New Jersey Cut-Off was paid for with 30-year bonds that the railroad sold under the corporation that was formed to finance its building: the Lackawanna Railroad of New Jersey..

    • @paulw3106
      @paulw3106 2 місяці тому

      Thanks for the information.

  • @FortMonroeCitizens
    @FortMonroeCitizens Місяць тому

    Sorry to see you wade into politics. No one knows who will win, even the Democrat and Harvard man Lichtman -- let's wait and see, Harris will not tell us what she stands for (joy?).
    And please stick to the Cutoff, where you are a beloved guy.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  Місяць тому +1

      I'm sorry you feel that way. We'll see who's right in November.

  • @gchristian7612
    @gchristian7612 2 місяці тому +3

    Bottom line, the west end (Delaware and Lackawanna) would benefit from a Trump win. The Cut-Off would benefit from a Harris win. Tax dollars going to transit projects would likely be bigger with Demacrat control. But our national economy would be stronger under Trump (compare 2016-2019 vs the last four years). For example, as a railroad employee, the Trump administration struck a deal with Ukraine to ship Pennsylvania Anthracite overseas. This increased our railroad’s carloadings. We actually earned an employee bonus because of this. A stronger economy means busier freight for the D & L.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +10

      Well, we'll see. It's all conjecture at this point. But I don't agree with your assessment of Trump and the economy, especially when considering that the economy tanked while he was president. The proof is in the pudding as they say.

    • @gchristian7612
      @gchristian7612 2 місяці тому +1

      @@LackawannaCutOff I suppose you could say the economy tanked in 2020 of his presidency, but that would've happened regardless of who was president, given all the lockdowns with covid. Trump's inflation rate got to like 1.3%. thru 2019 the economy was strong.

    • @LackawannaCutOff
      @LackawannaCutOff  2 місяці тому +8

      I think we're dealing with separate views of reality. Although Trump admirably championed Project Warp Speed to push for a Covid vaccine, he then spent the rest of his presidency doing whatever he could to undermine that accomplishment. Pure idiocy. Regarding inflation, during Covid we actually experienced deflation because of the lack of demand in many parts of the economy and was a major reason for Trump's defeat. Yet, Trump supporters doggedly hold onto the myth that the economy flourished under Trump. It's pure nonsense.

    • @larryc8568
      @larryc8568 2 місяці тому +2

      @@LackawannaCutOff Thank you for staunchly defending reality!

    • @josephpadula2283
      @josephpadula2283 2 місяці тому

      Maybe because the vaccine did not prevent the disease , he did not support it?
      Are you friends with people STILL wearing mask?

  • @Jeff-uj8xi
    @Jeff-uj8xi 2 місяці тому +1

    Chuck, I hope and pray Dr. Lichtman's prediction comes true.