Yeah it's been driving me nuts watching people say that there's like 15 million democrat votes missing when you can just... look at the results and see that there's something like 15 million votes left to count. Like California is still left with 7-8 million uncounted votes. And that's California alone.
I think the confusion came from reporting that there were "record numbers" of votes cast. Which would indicate that there should be more votes than were cast last cycle. So if Biden had 81M and Trump had 71M that means there should be OVER 152M votes. Plus whatever made up those record numbers. So far, there are only about 130M votes accounted for. And even if you add on 8M for California, the math is still not adding up for people.
@@mandirants There were record numbers of *early votes* cast, and there were predictions that that would mean "record numbers of _total votes_," but that didn't pan out. A bunch of people just sat this election out.
Thank you for the we're here special edition, hank. I read it on Wednesday when I was feeling very fragile and tense and it made me cry, but it also made me look forward and get me out of bed for the day😊
John and Hank, thanks for being here through these tough times and continuing to make videos. Seeing a new vlogbrothers video get posted is incredibly comforting.
That percent usually is about counties, not the number of votes. Some counties, especially in California have upward of 10 times the number of voters as others. Even then only another about 5 million is left which still doesn't add up to the number that voted in 2020
To quote from a great book, "when you don't know what to do, do what's right, and do what's in front of you - but not necessarily what's right in front of you." I'm putting my phone away except for music today. Time to go for a hike.
thank u hank. as a scared 19 yr old who watched crash course throughout high school. thank u for getting it, and breaking it down. hope you get some R&R. this whole country needs it right now.
@@Grunttamercan you provide some insights? I work in a field that interfaces with government policies quite frequently and have heard the opposite. A right wing controlled house (tentative), senate, and white house seems pretty impactful but maybe I'm missing something.
@@Cobalt_11 first, the news has been painting conservatives as actual monsters and it’s just not true. We just want less over reach, affordable groceries and safe streets. Second, the policies laid out in agenda 47 are not things that are all that controversial. We want legal immigration, we want to deport criminal aliens, we want less taxes, we want to use our natural resources to become energy independent.
p.s. I was assaulted in the train station this week, but rewatching you and John make tea on the livestream from last week has been keeping me together
You are not a cartoon hero. You cannot change the world on your own. Instead, be where you are needed. There are people who need your help. Wherever you look, you will find somebody that could use your help. If your thinking about giving up, I understand, but I also would feel bad for the people who could have used your help. Something I heard someone say, that I think should be spread.
Thank you for this, Hank. This community continues to be a good place to be even during times of complete and total bewilderment and frustration. One of the proudest moments I had recently was when my son was watching a UA-cam video with us where information was being presented as fact, and he blurted out, "She's not saying any evidence!" He was picking up on a perceived lack of cited sources, and we were able to have a discussion about how that particular channel does do a lot of research and posts the sources in the video descriptions, but that he was correct in being skeptical even though the things in the video sounded good. Hank and John, your videos all across UA-cam have been an invaluable tool for helping my wife and I teach our kids how to be curious, skeptical, and empathetic. For us at the very least, the world is a better place because of everything you do. Thank you so much.
Thanks for this, Hank. Those maps always irritate me for a lot of the reasons you said. My parents are also liberal but living in largely conservative, less populated areas, and I know seeing their areas painted entirely red bothers them, too. Thanks for taking the time to make a video, though we'd have understood if you didn't. Keep taking care of yourself ❤
That special edition was the thing I needed to finally feel the sadness. To grieve as you put it. Now I’m doing things. If my existence is protest I’ll keep being loud about it. I painted my nails. Writing poetry. Connecting with friends. Thank you
I hate gerrymandering. Theyre literally misrepresneting how many people live in certain places. Like people think places that are bigger have more power but no its the amount of people.
This isn't exactly gerrymandering. But the fact that there is a huge rural/urban split in how people vote means all maps have to be looked at with a lot of skepticism. He showed a cartogram, which distorts based on population. Those are good for getting a sense of how the votes actually pan out, but aren't very good for actually figuring out how a given area voted.
@@nathanspear8035 The electoral college mechanics are arguably a subtype of gerrymandering, just by drawing up the value of each "district" to give more voting power to certain demographics, instead of drawing up borders which do so. It's a vaguer use of a term which is more traditionally precise, but the outcome is the same.
@@falleithani5411 The only states where it's possible to gerrymander the Electoral College are Maine and Nebraska. Every other state assigns winner-take-all so there's no districts to fiddle with. Unless you're saying along the lines that it's gerrymandering to say, count Virginia and West Virginia as being split since it ends up with 13 votes blue and 4 votes red, but if you had combined the two, it'd be 17 votes red. Since the presence of West Virginia effectively cordons off a massive chunk of red voters that would have been have made Virginia's total election much more competitive. But for that point of view, you'll have to take it up with the states existing at all. Most didn't get much control over their original border, and even those who did, locked in what that border looks like over a hundred years ago.
Hank, thank you for lending your critical eye to this. We all need to use logic and love moving forward, rather than jumping to conclusions and division. We're in this together!
@@scratch7971 1. Calling me a dolt is unnecessary. 2. If we do not see other people as humans we will fall apart. Yes, the overall right wing movement is about division and working against us. But that movement is made of a lot of people. Some of whom agree with everything the movement stands for but many of whom who do not. Do we need to be friends with them? Of course not. Do we need to find those that are reachable and have conversations? Yes. Do we need to counter misinformation (like the graphs Hank showed) and point out flaws in the logic, rather than dismiss them as stupid? Yes.
@@scratch7971 the movement is about affordable groceries, government overreach, and safe streets. Take some time to feel your feelings about the election, they are valid. But try to calm down and just see how things go. The news has been so hyperbolic about Trump for years that otherwise reasonable people are having a legit fight or flight reaction for no reason.
@Maxpower644 i mean the democrats are guilty of everything that they have accused the republicans of doing. It's pathetic that you can't see that. All the msm lies over the years. And you're all concerned about elons tweets? He wants to be fact checked. You all want to be right when you're not.
@ I know he did? Is that what we're supposed our eyes to? He won fair and square, we got crushed. Let's hope your conservative utopia lives up the fucking hype.
I legit did all the things that made me happy on Weds. Put the top down and went for a long drive, played with the kids, and literally NOTHING could get rid of the despair I felt....hoping it gets better???? 😞
When I saw this coming when biden was initially running, I did all my crying then. And eventually you get through it, but it takes a couple months. What I mourned that democrats would sell their souls for a brutal international crime (no one had problems calling similar death and displacement numbers ethnic cleansing when it was bosnia in the 90's) all for it to also lose us the election and our rights at home (by losing the muslim and non-voting-bro)
I can relate. I've decided to turn my depsair into rage, and to focus that rage directly into gaining progress and educating myself and others so our grandkids at least stand a chance at a better world.
Thank you, Hank! There's a lot of panic and finger-pointing going on right now and I am also not in the mood for dissecting all the "reasons" this happened. We just need to be vigilant and keep doing what's right.
Thank you for the we're here special edition, hank. I read it on Wednesday when I was feeling very fragile and tense and it made me cry, but it also made me look forward and get me out of bed for the day.
I would stay & fight, but I have kids to worry about. Even before Trump was elected the first time I was accosted for going to the bathroom because they mistook me for a trans woman (I was still an egg back then, FTM trans man now.) And overheard in the grocery line in, I think 2010 or so, that people like me (atheist) shouldn't be allowed to keep their children. We're getting passports & leaving Hank. And we wish you luck.
I feel like the question of "how did this happen?" isn't as important as "what do we do now?", and even that question is one that has to wait on folks currently in power to decide what safe guards theycan put up. The hardest part is always the waiting.
I think those questions have a lot of bearing on each other, though. If this only happened because of inflation, then we probably don't need to change much, if it happened because the internet created a huge shift toward a world that is distrustful of institutions, we need to change tack dramatically.
I was listening to the Downside podcast this morning. They said something that got me thinking and was something I didn't know I had to come to terms with: Younger people, gen z, voted for trump over Harris. A lot of people have this notion that he somehow was more qualified or more trustworthy despite.. so much evidence to the contrary. The point Gianmarco and co made was: ignorance and selfishness does not disappear when the aging generations die out. It made me realize, the fight against this wave of populism and manipulative non-fact-based rhetoric, much like the fight against patriarchy and for individual rights, will persist and need attention as young people gain the right to vote. Education never stops being important, and we have a vacuum of critical thinking and community focus in America. Our shared values are leading us astray and the result was this election. I never would have thought younger people could be convinced a very diminished felon could make a good president, but I'm not in those conversations because I turned a blind eye to what young people are talking about. It concerns me about how we will ever move past this American obsession with capitalism in a country that is increasingly hostile to labor and artistry and the parts of life that actually matter...
You say that, but no one had seen more black men in cages with Kamala since the Civil War. Maybe instead of voting for a racist candidate that chooses her race based on what gets her more attention at that time, you vote 3rd party.
Propaganda machines have been built and are well oiled, sometimes by actual capital "O" Oil. Children who have had no opportunity to develop critical thinking skills are tricked into thinking being conservative is counter cultural, when they don't even have the ability to comprehend the parts of their future they're trading away
@@danieldorn9989did the CDU in 2004 plan to establish a colony in Africa for mass deportations? This argument seems to be a classic afd apologist stance and it's just not true. Even if it was true, the CDU sucks now and it sucked in 2004. The AFD is obviously a far right party. If you're gonna support them at least have the guts to say it.
Oh, Hank.. Thank you for creating this comfortingly informed and conscientious community and for reassuringly being here, even in times when I'm sure you must feel as deflated, frustrated, and tired as many of us.. but also with the millions of UA-cam and other social media subscribers and companies that most of us don't have to think about. Please take care of yourself (first)! You and your brother are so appreciated and cared for by us. ❤️
Hank I find your presence very comforting, no matter the subject. I don't think you need to make super relevant stuff right now if it's going to effect your mental health. I think we're all here because we care about you, the world, and learning. So like. Anything to do with any of those three is cool, and I think you'll find an easy time finding something to learn about at the very least
@AOC recommendations also were: "Make sure to be part of a community, because communities is what we will need to defend ourselves." I also think the most important thing we can do is get together, be sure to have each other within reach, and brace ourselves for next year.
Community is dead. I came home yesterday to a note on my van saying it was reported for being parked in the same spot for over 4 days, when there was an empty spot next to me. Today is street sweeper day, so I had to drive my 7.3 liter diesel van to work instead of ride my bicycle because I couldn't park in an empty parking lot for one more day.
Yeah, try to get to know people in your area who can actually do things for each other. Sympathetic people especially, but maybe cautiously sidle up to a few who, as long as they're not dangerous to you, aren't so sympathetic as well. If you can safely do it, be the counterexample someone thinks of when authority tells them a group you're a part of aren't real Americans or good people.
I needed to clear my head on the morning of the 6th and I went hiking. Someone broke into my car while I was doing so and robbed me. Came home and my PC died, then the handle broke off of my toilet. This has been a very bad few days, I'm weary.
The part where he says "land does not vote", but that's kind of what the electoral college does, give more voting power to people in lower population density areas
I'm a business analyst for a living. It's frustrating beyond belief trying to convey how misleading these graphs (and others) are to people that adamantly believe what the chart creator is trying to instill in them. In my head doing my job isn't all that hard, but in retrospect maybe it is for the common person 🤦🏻
Something that people don't realize is that in 2020 a lot more people got an absentee ballot in the mail (you know due to a certain pandemic). This made it a lot more convenient for more people to vote. This helped cause a few things one of which was that people who felt like their vote didn't matter were much less likely to actually vote. ("Why wait in line to vote if it doesn't change anything?" as opposed to "my vote probably doesn't matter but I have the ballot already so might as well fill it out.") This makes red counties look redder and blue counties look bluer (on the arrow map). The pandemic totally changed the way the 2020 election looked and the way it took place which makes comparison very difficult, and usually misleading.
This is an interesting point and I know that voting accessibility was compromised in quite a few areas. However, I don't think we currently have an idea of real numbers that would suggest the significance of those changes, e.g. how many people had mail-in ballot access in 2020 but didn't in 2024. But certainly a whole let less people voted this cycle
Hank, thanks for making videos even in the midst of this certain uncertainty. I hope to see you and John working a lot during these next four years to help us push back against the violence and lies peddled by the people who desire to control us and make us feel like we don't deserve to be free and happy.
An extremely important and absent piece of context to all of these election maps is "how many people DIDN'T vote?" Also, one thing I have seen from many people, as warning signs before the election and as analysis after the election, is that people broadly felt that the democratic party abandoned them. Not only was there assumption that the main base would vote for them anyway, there was active rejection of many demographics that normally vote for democrats. Anger aimed towards genocide protestors at universities and legislation intended to label them as "antisemitic" for protesting genocidal actions and not ethnic groups. That alienates Arabic populations as well as young voters in universities. Latino/latina populations didn't get any concessions. Black voters didn't get concessions. Anti-war people didn't get concessions. Most people are caught up in their daily lives and aren't as likely to hear all the details. They care about narratives and stories and what affects them most immediately. The democratic party desperately needs to change to activate their base again instead of taking that base for granted, clearly. I just hope that the comments from people at high levels of control in the party aren't truly indicative of where they're going since they indicated they think they're not enough like republicans already. But, I have to admit, I don't have much personal hope of that at this point.
Thanks for touching on Point 2. I've been feeling the same, but as someone outside the US, without US voting rights, I feel utterly useless while still being fully aware that what happens in the US has an affect on my part of the world too.
At this point, you need to stop emotionally reacting to ignorance. It's been like this for a long time. You know this is the world you live in. Stressing about misinformation will only waste energy and drain your emotion health.
Hank, leading up to the election it was framed as a coinflip - 50/50, anyone’s game. Now that it's over, there's a flood of analysis from one side, digging into all the reasons for the loss. It makes me wonder: Was there a hidden factor missing in the simulations, and it wasn’t really a coinflip after all? Or if it truly was a coinflip, what’s all this post-analysis actually giving us that we didn’t have before? It’s like I’m picturing a literal coin flip, it lands, and suddenly experts are brought in to explain why it landed heads instead of tails. 🤔
Most analysis is back looking and seeks justification for things that happened. I wouldn't put much weight into these people unless their forward looking analysis is also usually right.
This is the problem I have with polling. All of the polling data and surveys indicated that people would vote for Harris about as much as they would vote for Trump; so it’s a coin flip, and the campaigns felt comfortable going into the race with that information. What campaign strategy often misses though, is putting together the head to head polls with “country vibes” polling questions like “do you approve of the current administration” or “do you think the country is on the right track”. Biden stayed in the race because he was winning head to head polls, but an incumbent admin will LOSE if the vibes questions are overwhelmingly negative, and they were. The Biden admin, as Hank said, is historically unpopular to a ridiculous degree, which should have indicated a much lower voter turnout than Dems claimed they expected, and a much higher turnout for Trump, which is what we saw on election night. We need to stop staring at the “people will vote for Harris 50% more of the time to Trump 49%”. Or whatever the head to head polls are saying, and we need to stop campaigning off of margins like that. Control the vibes questions. Those should be the only priority, and it’s why we’ve needed a stronger labor movement candidate.
i think being able to properly capture the entirety of the dynamics impacting one of the world's largest regular elections is a mathematician's wildest dream. i'd compare the reaction less to scientific analysis, but to how humans process unwanted outcomes (similar to the stages of grief) it's part of our nature to reflect upon circumstances outside of our control (because let's be honest, on an individual level that is true) and to try to rationalize our way into a comforting understanding of the why and how. we like to think that things are predictable, we are comforted by the concept of control. our analysis is biased by this undying desire to be able to do something different next time. we are still in the emotional aftermath of this event, real rational analysis is a long ways away.
It wasn't a coin flip. Polling averages showed Trump leading in all/almost all swing states, and slightly ahead in the popular vote. Betting markets clearly favored Trump. Wishful thinking clouded people's judgement, but the result was not surprising given the data we had.
That is exactly what's happening. None of the analysis is good faith attempts to understand, either. The choice of what to blame is entirely strategic (also these people have no clue why anything happened, they just get paid a lot to pretend they do)
"A lot of bad takes that are not representative of reality" Very very true, but, we're now in a country that seems utterly impervious to facts and that entails massive boding of the horrific kind.
Congrats, your sport team won, see how it will actually improve your life in the next four years 😂 your president only cares about his rich friends. he will not do anything for your gullible ass and it’s so obvious. we’re all laughing at you from outside the US
speaking on the election itself, one thing that irks me is that whenever a republican wins, everyone sees it as a free and fair election (which it is) and the democrat concedes. yet, whenever a democrat wins, you get millions of people saying it's unfair and that we need to re-count and this and that, and the republican doesn't concede unless there's an act of god. what's with that? it's just something that has annoyed me since i've been able to vote (and even before that, lol).
Just like 2016, when the Democrats cried and screamed for 4 years about Russian election interference and tried to delegitimize the Trump Presidency? And Obama illegally spied on the Trump campaign by lying in order to get FISA warrants. Look it up.
I felt like I really needed this to smack some calm and rationality back into me because everyone is emotionally compromised and social media is going crazy. This was a good reminder to breathe and really look at things.
Hank if Not for you I would have not gotten though my crisis in school as an adult student Thank you. You have a beautiful mind and we need you. You are qualified!
I'm just... I'm so indescribably angry that the emotion has circled back twice and now I'm just numb. Doesn't feel quite real yet. I live in a rural, conservative area and this is just going to make me retreat even further but I can't bear to look these people in the eye anymore tbh.
I've been thinking for a long time that we need kids to get a "Defense Against The Dark Arts" class where we specifically train this sort of critical thinking. There are dark wizards out there working hard to deceive you - for political reasons (propaganda), but also for commercial ones (advertising and marketing). Not to mention just good old fashioned scamming and phishing and hustling. They use bad graphs, bad data, yes - but also fallacious arguments, psychological tricks, and lots and lots of money. We need to teach these examples in schools; how to spot them, how to analyze them critically, how to talk about them productively to others who are being misled. You do such a good job of this. Your recent video on Elon Musk's factually incorrect tweets was another gem. I feel like this could be a whole series, or even a whole channel. Keep up the good work!!!
Critical thinking and media literacy are sorely needed in this country, and that's exactly what the republican party wants to make sure people don't get.
@@devinglass9967A lot of "us" read her books before she came out as a transphobic ghoul. It was a quite popular book series! Culturally important, even, for a lot of us who tend to be rather nerdy.
Greetings from Juneau. Alaska is organized into boroughs, which essentially function like counties. Some boroughs, like The City and Borough of Juneau, are unified with a city and also function the same as a city. Others like the Mat-Su Borough may incorporate many smaller cities and function as an umbrella entity above them. But boroughs are created by the people who live in the given area, and it's possible to simply not choose to have (or not have the political infrastructure to create) a borough. Much of rural Alaska is within "the unorganized borough," which is really just no borough at all. But with so much of Alaska so sparsely populated and difficult to access, a defined county system doesn't really work up here.
help us organize. lives are at stake. please be bold about this. I don't even need to tell you which way to think. You're smart, Hank. Much dumber people are dominating this space.
@@Dad_Jordan A lot of lives are at stake. The GOP's abortion bans are going to get more women killed than they will save fetuses. Abortions are necessary for more than just accidental pregnancies. Trump can incite violence on anyone he hates like he did on January 6th, like he did to the legal Haitian immigrants, the poll workers, the FEMA operators and innumerable others. His supporters blindly believe his lies and will attack anyone who they deem as a threat to him. He's dangerous and untouchable and he knows it.
I saw this graph on twitter, and also immediately realized all of those issues in it, not because I am that smart, but because tons of people pointed them out in the comments! This is the steelman for why open discourse helps elevate truth.
One of the other ways graphs lie to you is that it assumes that the body of voters is the same each election, but the breakdown of those voters changed. In many cases, there were people who were non-voters that decided to vote for Trump, or Biden voters who decided not to vote for Harris. I don't know the number of "Biden voters turned Trump voters" but I'm wary of graphs that make it seem like that's what happened.
@@toggle2565 You didn't read the sentence correctly. It doesn't apply to you. See where it says "those of us who value reason and reality" and not "those of us who would've voted for Hitler"?
I’m really glad Hank (and by extension John, even though he avoided election talk) are being really level-headed and such when it comes to the election and such, at least so far. Cuz it’s really difficult seeing SO many people resort to doom and gloom, some even already deciding to flee the country. I’m just happy they aren’t mongering anything and just being factual and stuffs. It’s good to see, at least to me.
@@EmogetaMost people don’t have the means to leave a place they’d rather not live in. People staying when times are bad for them is an indicator of unfreedom.
@@Emogeta 1. … what? 2. Suggesting that the average person escape into cyberspace to avoid their real problems ignores every possible reality of that situation. It’s unbelievable that some people actually hope for Ready Player One or worse to come true.
Hank know that I love you even though we have never met. Stay safe out there it’s gonna be rough for everyone and educated motivated voices like you are important.
One piece of advice, as an argentinian having had similarly awful elections for the past 3 iterations: the election was lost months ago, when the candidates got locked in and they were two awful old men with terrible reputations. Kamala was a weird twist but the bottom line is that something is failing WAY before the elections if you're having to make these kind of decisions.
I feel like it was lost in 2021 when Joe Manchin blocked the BBB plan. All that Biden was going to do to help ordinary people fizzled, and he never regained his prestige. Nobody really liked him again.
As someone who makes a lot of electoral maps as a hobby (mostly for Wikipedia pages on elections in Texas), I constantly struggle with how to balance the simplicity of the map with trying to explain its context. I can look at a map of Wisconsin and instinctively know that the blue dots of Milwaukee and Madison represent a lot more people than the blue dots of La Crosse and Eau Claire, but someone who doesn’t do this all the time won’t, so I have to explain it to them. I prefer making precincts maps, since most precincts are supposed to be within roughly an order of magnitude of population from any other given precinct in a state, but that comes with its own set of problems (namely that there are thousands of them and that you have to zoom in and out a bunch when looking at different cities). There is no perfect solution, but it’s always important to try to understand the context of maps you’re looking at, and if you’re the one making the map, make sure that context is easily attainable or directly explained.
Thanks for making stuff, Hank. It's very understandable that a lot of people are feeling uninspired right now & needing a break from everything. Today I walked my dogs in the woods & saw lots of cool moss & ravens.
Thanks Hank. I have felt like I need to do something since the election but I don't know what. I do think hearing from communities I trust and care about has been helpful.
I do love how these graphs and “data” about how many Dems stayed home started before all votes were counted. Specifically before all votes were counted in the west coast states. Hmmmmm wonder how these trends appeared in our incomplete data set
Thank you. For this video. For everything. You are both bright spots in my world, and especially you, Hank. You are the central point of so many of the bright spots in my life and part of the reason I'm still trying to become a scientist. I hope you find many happy, bright spots right now. I hope all of you do, that all of us do.
I'm right there with you Hank I don't know how to think about this I don't know how to understand this and I'm trying my hardest not to fall into this pit of mistrust and darkness thank you for your video I believe it did what you wanted it to do
Thank you, Hank. I’m a queer person living in Missouri, a very red state. The LGBT+ people I’m around are extremely sad but also more motivated than ever to fight for change. We’re getting organized and preparing for the next four years. To my fellow LGBT+/queer friends- talk to those around you, get organized, and prepare. Look into online activist spaces and try to bring those topics up in real life conversations. But more than anything else, enjoy the holidays and enjoy your life now. We don’t know what will happen, but for now we are okay. Hope is not lost, and you are not alone. Taking care of yourselves is a fantastic act of protest.
Also, Hank- I’m graduating at the beginning of December with a degree in comp sci and minors in math and philosophy. I used to hate all of those subjects actually because I found them too challenging. Your videos inspired me when I was younger. I wanted to challenge myself to learn more and develop strong, informed beliefs. You helped give me the framework I needed to make informed decisions. I’m certainly not alone in that. Right now things feel bleak, but you have made a huge difference in so many people’s lives and can continue to do so. Thank you again, and I wish you the best in whatever is to come in the next 4 years.
I agree that there have been a lot of bad takes. I suspect that my own take is one of them. I'm still trying to figure this out, but it's hard for me to get past the sense that, to most of this country's electorate, I am apparently not considered a person worthy of rights because I have a uterus.
THANK YOU. Honestly just knowing I'm not the only one who thinks like this if so comforting... I've felt like I'm in crazy town the past few days seeing people pass these charts around without thinking.
The map discussion is a very welcome thing for me. Because I live in one of the stranger states to depict on an election map on: New York State. On most maps, we would be a “blue state”. But then when you break down the state itself, the New York City area is blue and the rest is red. Which makes it seem like everyone in Upstate New York is a Republican. But it does not account for the fact that a lot of NYS isn’t inhabited by people. You can’t build cities in places like the Adirondacks or the Catskills. Partially because they’re mountains and partially because there are laws trying to preserve the wilderness that’s left in them (and as you said, land doesn’t vote).
1:20 "Fill in the blank with your own biases" This was my reaction to hearing about a vote disparity. I feel like there are so many good reasons for why there might be a disparity (if there even is one in the end) that don't rely on malicious manipulation that it would foolish to take such a disparity as evidence for said manipulation.
I'm really grateful that you are willing to admit you aren't an expert on all topics, and explain what that means. And that you use that to make well researched content that is very aware and open about the limitations. Just, thank you. I think it really helps to show how complicated, silly, diverse, and wonderful the world is. How you can spend meaningful time researching and trying to understand and that there can still be big questions. That being curious and trying to find answers can lead to you being very knowledgeable and versed and still lacking in the answer, and how that's both beautiful and hard. I deeply value the journey of research and making sense of it all. And the last almost two decades worth vlog brothers has been wonderful for that journey.
The first thing I learned in my college stats class was: when graphing "represent magnitudes honestly" and when you see a graph always check the actual data because most people do not represent magnitudes honestly. It's easy to make a graph that technically isn't lying, but our brain is processing it as magnitudes when something else is shown. Cutting off the Y axis like you showed is so common and I hate it!
Hank, I’ve been seeing data everywhere that millions of dems didn’t vote for Harris but they had for Biden. Can you help me understand if this is true or not?
Alaska doesn't have counties, but it does have a system of subdivisions. It has 19 organized boroughs which have their own level of government like counties in other states. And then there's the "unorganized borough" which is divided into 11 "census areas" and is administered directly by the state of Alaska. So all together Alaska has 30 subdivisions. Louisiana is the only other state to call its subdivisions something other than counties, but at least Louisiana calls all 64 of theirs "parishes" instead of having a confusing system of boroughs and census areas.
I'm not sure why, but the official state website in Alaska shows results not by borough/census area, but by state house district. Despite results being individually available for all 40 Alaska state house districts, CNN, the NYT, and Google don't divide the results for Alaska up at all, which is probably why that map only has one arrow for the entire state.
In the case of Louisiana, the name "Parish" is just a nod to the state's Catholic history. They used to be counties until 1845, and still function just like any other state's counties.
I’m in the U.K., and let’s face it, we’ve had many of the problems you have right now. You can survive it, but there’s a lesson to take from the big orange baby; start campaigning now for the next election. Remember, all he needed to do was publicly criticise those in power without any expectations to be able to do anything about it. You have the right to free speech and the right to assemble (they can’t take it away from you without risking that amendment they love so much). Use those rights, organise and get out there now. His party played a very long game starting from the ground up, it’s time to do the same
If a similar map were drawn with one arrow per congressional district (that is, one arrow per House seat), would that “fix” the county size problem? It wouldn’t be perfect of course (the restrictions of 435 districts that must each be part of only one of the 50 states means that some districts are unavoidably going to have more people than others, especially in the states that only get one seat), but if we ignore that effect, would it fix the “land doesn’t vote” problem? Heck, if we went one step further and drew 538 arrows, one per House seat, one per Senate seat, plus one arrow for each of DC’s 3 electoral votes (meaning each Presidential election voter should be part of three different arrows), I think we’d get a map that could show an intuitive representation of how the electorate’s _influence_ on the result changed, even taking the electoral college into account. There’s still the “all-or-nothing” slate of electors problem though, I suppose.
Totally not having to do with this video but here it is anyways. I feel like a lot of people have forgotten how to human. I saw a woman in a comment section say how scared she is of losing healthcare due to chronic illness. And a person responded some version of "ha ha, lib tears, move or die." And it just kinda shocked me. I know this is the internet but when did it get where people are comfortable laughing at truly scared folks? I feel like I'm in a daycare watching a handful of 4 year olds running around biting people and laughing. And at least one teacher is egging them on, laughing along, and giving them gold stars for doing it. I'm not talking about ethics or morals. Literally just being human. Holding doors for people, not tripping old ladies crossing the street, feeling sad when you see a sad person. These are just _human_ things and I don't know when being human became something to question in a significant part of the population. I don't know. Just thoughts.
Because people suffering no consequences of being evil assholes on the internet has made them comfortable. Internet anonymity is both a blessing and a curse.
You do know half the internet isnt real people right? You almost know that trolls don't have lives or do what Trump or Elon does and tweet like 30 times a day.
I think because certain people choose who they are empathetic or sympathetic towards, and revoke that empathy and sympathy arbitrarily, based on who they feel would be sympathetic towards them. It's my personal belief that humanity's greatest accomplishment is the ability to feel for *everything*, like feeling sad about dented cans at a grocery store, or saying sorry to a table you ran into. It is our greatest sin that humans can also revoke that feeling for anything, including other people. I try to remember that everyone, *everyone* is human, and deserves a baseline level of respect for that. I don't know how to remind other people of that though, this is a personal understanding I came to privately and I don't know how to convince others of that, or even if it would be ethical to do so. That's just my two cents
I'm a data guy. Data visualization is a whole giant topic. I worked at a place that had over 3 billion pieces of information a month and the sales team (among others) had to pare that down to something a human brain could wrap itself around. For most sales people that means a simple line graph.
I have a suspicion that all of the charts Hank mentioned in this video are deficient in part because we need more than three dimensions to accurately capture all aspects of the data. Would you say that that's accurate?
I’m a young, queer college student. I’m scared and nervous for my future, my rights, my safety and especially those of my friends and the people I love. Thank you for alleviating my mind with some comforting data :)
The only thing I can think of is to talk to or read about people who were in your situation when it was even more dangerous. Let their expertise guide you about how to best survive this. Because we know that some did. And you will too. History is your friend right now.
Ignore the other commenter. You are important, you are loved. I’m also a young queer college student and I’m scared too. We can get through this, I know it. We just have to stick together. 💜
I (and looking at it, America) need a series of detective Hank going deep to uncover high-profile cases of graph crime. Maybe call it something catchy and noir like "Crash Course Data Science"
Thank you! I've been shouting this from the rooftops.
Yeah it's been driving me nuts watching people say that there's like 15 million democrat votes missing when you can just... look at the results and see that there's something like 15 million votes left to count. Like California is still left with 7-8 million uncounted votes. And that's California alone.
oh legaleagle is a nerdfighter. I guess I'm not surprised! But it's good to know.
I think the confusion came from reporting that there were "record numbers" of votes cast. Which would indicate that there should be more votes than were cast last cycle. So if Biden had 81M and Trump had 71M that means there should be OVER 152M votes. Plus whatever made up those record numbers.
So far, there are only about 130M votes accounted for. And even if you add on 8M for California, the math is still not adding up for people.
Hello eagle 🦅
@@mandirants There were record numbers of *early votes* cast, and there were predictions that that would mean "record numbers of _total votes_," but that didn't pan out. A bunch of people just sat this election out.
Thank you for the we're here special edition, hank. I read it on Wednesday when I was feeling very fragile and tense and it made me cry, but it also made me look forward and get me out of bed for the day😊
John and Hank, thanks for being here through these tough times and continuing to make videos. Seeing a new vlogbrothers video get posted is incredibly comforting.
Trump 2024
There's no tough times, you sound so pathetic and helpless. Trump 2024 🎉
@@laxattack032Why do you wanna vote for a felon who thinks his daughter is hot?
Puss boy
@@laxattack032 kamala 2024
Thank you, I did not realize that half of votes in California were not yet counted.
AP is currently showing 58% reporting
This is true. In my district there is a .2% (
That percent usually is about counties, not the number of votes. Some counties, especially in California have upward of 10 times the number of voters as others.
Even then only another about 5 million is left which still doesn't add up to the number that voted in 2020
the fact the count is still ongoing yet was called so quickly will never sit right with me
@@illiterobecause it is mathematically impossible for it to be otherwise.
To quote from a great book, "when you don't know what to do, do what's right, and do what's in front of you - but not necessarily what's right in front of you." I'm putting my phone away except for music today. Time to go for a hike.
You should take your own advice and do what’s right. You won’t though.
@@VidelxSpopovich Be specific.
did the same thing, cleaned house
@@VidelxSpopovich What's right is what my grandfather did in 1942. Would you like me to elaborate?
Going for a hike myself sometime this weekend. Need to just get away from people in general for a few hours lol
thank u hank. as a scared 19 yr old who watched crash course throughout high school. thank u for getting it, and breaking it down. hope you get some R&R. this whole country needs it right now.
@@phoebemelchor there is no reason to fear. Take time to process the election and see what actually changes. I’m betting not much
Dont watch fearmongering media. He was president before and it didnt lead to a fourth reich with people getting rounded up and shot in the head.
@@Grunttamercan you provide some insights? I work in a field that interfaces with government policies quite frequently and have heard the opposite.
A right wing controlled house (tentative), senate, and white house seems pretty impactful but maybe I'm missing something.
@@Cobalt_11 first, the news has been painting conservatives as actual monsters and it’s just not true. We just want less over reach, affordable groceries and safe streets.
Second, the policies laid out in agenda 47 are not things that are all that controversial. We want legal immigration, we want to deport criminal aliens, we want less taxes, we want to use our natural resources to become energy independent.
there's reason to fear, but there's some good in this world that is worth fighting for (best lotr quote ever)
Hank, I don’t know what to do or think this week, but thank you for being here with us ❤
p.s. I was assaulted in the train station this week, but rewatching you and John make tea on the livestream from last week has been keeping me together
Sorry reality is your leftist dream and never was
@@juliaxchung hope you stay safe ❤
@ oh didn’t know that
You are not a cartoon hero. You cannot change the world on your own. Instead, be where you are needed. There are people who need your help.
Wherever you look, you will find somebody that could use your help. If your thinking about giving up, I understand, but I also would feel bad for the people who could have used your help.
Something I heard someone say, that I think should be spread.
"America is weird" is the most charitable criticism of the country I've heard this week.
Thank you for this, Hank. This community continues to be a good place to be even during times of complete and total bewilderment and frustration.
One of the proudest moments I had recently was when my son was watching a UA-cam video with us where information was being presented as fact, and he blurted out, "She's not saying any evidence!" He was picking up on a perceived lack of cited sources, and we were able to have a discussion about how that particular channel does do a lot of research and posts the sources in the video descriptions, but that he was correct in being skeptical even though the things in the video sounded good.
Hank and John, your videos all across UA-cam have been an invaluable tool for helping my wife and I teach our kids how to be curious, skeptical, and empathetic. For us at the very least, the world is a better place because of everything you do. Thank you so much.
Thanks for this, Hank. Those maps always irritate me for a lot of the reasons you said. My parents are also liberal but living in largely conservative, less populated areas, and I know seeing their areas painted entirely red bothers them, too. Thanks for taking the time to make a video, though we'd have understood if you didn't. Keep taking care of yourself ❤
I took the tea quiz. pelicans are the kind of cat I am, how did you know
That special edition was the thing I needed to finally feel the sadness. To grieve as you put it. Now I’m doing things. If my existence is protest I’ll keep being loud about it. I painted my nails. Writing poetry. Connecting with friends. Thank you
As a fellow Montanan, I feel you Hank. At least when we look out across the land, we see blue mountains and rivers.
Montana loves folks like you. Bears need food in a harsh winter.
💙
My vote in California is equally as worthless. Only a few states matter.
@@JoshuaTootell Your vote still matters a lot for House and Senate, a lot of House Seats in California went red this election
@@JoshuaTootell hey, you helped push the popular vote and the house and senate seats.
I hate gerrymandering. Theyre literally misrepresneting how many people live in certain places. Like people think places that are bigger have more power but no its the amount of people.
This isn't exactly gerrymandering. But the fact that there is a huge rural/urban split in how people vote means all maps have to be looked at with a lot of skepticism. He showed a cartogram, which distorts based on population. Those are good for getting a sense of how the votes actually pan out, but aren't very good for actually figuring out how a given area voted.
@@biddinge8898 that why Northern California hates sf and la
This map (and presidential elections in 48/50 states) has nothing to do with gerrymandering.
They count vote totals by state, not by district.
@@nathanspear8035 The electoral college mechanics are arguably a subtype of gerrymandering, just by drawing up the value of each "district" to give more voting power to certain demographics, instead of drawing up borders which do so.
It's a vaguer use of a term which is more traditionally precise, but the outcome is the same.
@@falleithani5411 The only states where it's possible to gerrymander the Electoral College are Maine and Nebraska. Every other state assigns winner-take-all so there's no districts to fiddle with. Unless you're saying along the lines that it's gerrymandering to say, count Virginia and West Virginia as being split since it ends up with 13 votes blue and 4 votes red, but if you had combined the two, it'd be 17 votes red. Since the presence of West Virginia effectively cordons off a massive chunk of red voters that would have been have made Virginia's total election much more competitive. But for that point of view, you'll have to take it up with the states existing at all. Most didn't get much control over their original border, and even those who did, locked in what that border looks like over a hundred years ago.
Hank, thank you for lending your critical eye to this. We all need to use logic and love moving forward, rather than jumping to conclusions and division. We're in this together!
We are NOT in this together, you dolt. Conservatives WILL NEVER be on our side, their movement IS ONLY ABOUT DIVISION.
@@scratch7971 1. Calling me a dolt is unnecessary.
2. If we do not see other people as humans we will fall apart. Yes, the overall right wing movement is about division and working against us. But that movement is made of a lot of people. Some of whom agree with everything the movement stands for but many of whom who do not. Do we need to be friends with them? Of course not. Do we need to find those that are reachable and have conversations? Yes. Do we need to counter misinformation (like the graphs Hank showed) and point out flaws in the logic, rather than dismiss them as stupid? Yes.
@@scratch7971 the movement is about affordable groceries, government overreach, and safe streets. Take some time to feel your feelings about the election, they are valid. But try to calm down and just see how things go. The news has been so hyperbolic about Trump for years that otherwise reasonable people are having a legit fight or flight reaction for no reason.
@@Grunttamerhaha, hahahahaha.
Funny.
@scratch7971 You instantly yelled at someone on your side without hesitation. That's how divide and conquer works.
Thank you for expressing your, "I don't know how to feel or what to do" moment at the end. I think so many of us can relate.
@@jttinsleyjoeyWhat do you people mean when you say "Open your eyes". Please, enlighten us with specifics. If you can.
I mean, four years ago, I just kept going to work when Orange Man lost.
Maybe just keep going to work?
@Maxpower644 i mean the democrats are guilty of everything that they have accused the republicans of doing. It's pathetic that you can't see that. All the msm lies over the years. And you're all concerned about elons tweets? He wants to be fact checked. You all want to be right when you're not.
@@Maxpower644 Trump won fair and square. Deal with it. Move on. Live your diddycrat life.
@ I know he did? Is that what we're supposed our eyes to? He won fair and square, we got crushed. Let's hope your conservative utopia lives up the fucking hype.
I legit did all the things that made me happy on Weds. Put the top down and went for a long drive, played with the kids, and literally NOTHING could get rid of the despair I felt....hoping it gets better???? 😞
When I saw this coming when biden was initially running, I did all my crying then. And eventually you get through it, but it takes a couple months.
What I mourned that democrats would sell their souls for a brutal international crime (no one had problems calling similar death and displacement numbers ethnic cleansing when it was bosnia in the 90's) all for it to also lose us the election and our rights at home (by losing the muslim and non-voting-bro)
Aweh muffin! Did you give your kids a day off too? Aweeeeeee you poor baby! Grow a pair you puss boy
We will get through this together.
I can relate. I've decided to turn my depsair into rage, and to focus that rage directly into gaining progress and educating myself and others so our grandkids at least stand a chance at a better world.
I woke up that morning and decided it was time for me to leave the country. This place is my home no longer.
Thank you, Hank! There's a lot of panic and finger-pointing going on right now and I am also not in the mood for dissecting all the "reasons" this happened. We just need to be vigilant and keep doing what's right.
I am so tired of attention based media still kicking us while we’re down. First the polling data, and then the voting results. When will it stop 😭
But I’m also actually proud of Utah, for once
It won't, as long as you continue to willfully consume it.
@@Bluebloods7 Consume what?
When we start paying for news media that doesn't use ads to sustain it
No, it's good. We can't bubble, unless you want fascism forever.
Thank you for the we're here special edition, hank. I read it on Wednesday when I was feeling very fragile and tense and it made me cry, but it also made me look forward and get me out of bed for the day.
We're STILL here because we're here! Nerdfighters- keep fighting 💪 this is not the end.
As a geospatial analyst, thank you for doing this breakdown! Graphical literacy is super important
I would stay & fight, but I have kids to worry about.
Even before Trump was elected the first time I was accosted for going to the bathroom because they mistook me for a trans woman (I was still an egg back then, FTM trans man now.) And overheard in the grocery line in, I think 2010 or so, that people like me (atheist) shouldn't be allowed to keep their children.
We're getting passports & leaving Hank. And we wish you luck.
Canada welcomes you, if you are so inclined.
Oof
Good luck and Godspeed.
I'm sorry you had to deal with that. I hope your new life is better and I hope others don't have to face this kind of hate
I feel like the question of "how did this happen?" isn't as important as "what do we do now?", and even that question is one that has to wait on folks currently in power to decide what safe guards theycan put up. The hardest part is always the waiting.
It happened because Trump is a winner and yall are loosers
Puss boy
I think those questions have a lot of bearing on each other, though. If this only happened because of inflation, then we probably don't need to change much, if it happened because the internet created a huge shift toward a world that is distrustful of institutions, we need to change tack dramatically.
History has lessons to teach. Things don't get brighter from here.
@vlogbrothers how can you not see how most people have changed their minds? Are you blind or ignorant?
I was listening to the Downside podcast this morning. They said something that got me thinking and was something I didn't know I had to come to terms with:
Younger people, gen z, voted for trump over Harris. A lot of people have this notion that he somehow was more qualified or more trustworthy despite.. so much evidence to the contrary. The point Gianmarco and co made was: ignorance and selfishness does not disappear when the aging generations die out. It made me realize, the fight against this wave of populism and manipulative non-fact-based rhetoric, much like the fight against patriarchy and for individual rights, will persist and need attention as young people gain the right to vote. Education never stops being important, and we have a vacuum of critical thinking and community focus in America. Our shared values are leading us astray and the result was this election. I never would have thought younger people could be convinced a very diminished felon could make a good president, but I'm not in those conversations because I turned a blind eye to what young people are talking about. It concerns me about how we will ever move past this American obsession with capitalism in a country that is increasingly hostile to labor and artistry and the parts of life that actually matter...
Hey, i just wanted to let you know that it's the same in Germany right now. Young people are increasingly voting for the far right party, AfD 😞
You say that, but no one had seen more black men in cages with Kamala since the Civil War. Maybe instead of voting for a racist candidate that chooses her race based on what gets her more attention at that time, you vote 3rd party.
Propaganda machines have been built and are well oiled, sometimes by actual capital "O" Oil. Children who have had no opportunity to develop critical thinking skills are tricked into thinking being conservative is counter cultural, when they don't even have the ability to comprehend the parts of their future they're trading away
@@chrys363 AfD is not far right. Their policies are the same as the CDU 20 years ago.
@@danieldorn9989did the CDU in 2004 plan to establish a colony in Africa for mass deportations? This argument seems to be a classic afd apologist stance and it's just not true. Even if it was true, the CDU sucks now and it sucked in 2004. The AFD is obviously a far right party. If you're gonna support them at least have the guts to say it.
Oh, Hank.. Thank you for creating this comfortingly informed and conscientious community and for reassuringly being here, even in times when I'm sure you must feel as deflated, frustrated, and tired as many of us.. but also with the millions of UA-cam and other social media subscribers and companies that most of us don't have to think about. Please take care of yourself (first)! You and your brother are so appreciated and cared for by us. ❤️
"Graph Crime"!
I really want a graph investigation decision sketch, and possibly a graph vigilante character. Someone to fix visual data for all.
Straight to graph jail!
This feels like a PBS show skit ala Cyberchase or something.
I love it when people explain maps and graphs like this, thank you!
Hank I find your presence very comforting, no matter the subject. I don't think you need to make super relevant stuff right now if it's going to effect your mental health. I think we're all here because we care about you, the world, and learning. So like. Anything to do with any of those three is cool, and I think you'll find an easy time finding something to learn about at the very least
@AOC recommendations also were: "Make sure to be part of a community, because communities is what we will need to defend ourselves."
I also think the most important thing we can do is get together, be sure to have each other within reach, and brace ourselves for next year.
Community is dead.
I came home yesterday to a note on my van saying it was reported for being parked in the same spot for over 4 days, when there was an empty spot next to me.
Today is street sweeper day, so I had to drive my 7.3 liter diesel van to work instead of ride my bicycle because I couldn't park in an empty parking lot for one more day.
Yeah, try to get to know people in your area who can actually do things for each other. Sympathetic people especially, but maybe cautiously sidle up to a few who, as long as they're not dangerous to you, aren't so sympathetic as well. If you can safely do it, be the counterexample someone thinks of when authority tells them a group you're a part of aren't real Americans or good people.
I needed to clear my head on the morning of the 6th and I went hiking. Someone broke into my car while I was doing so and robbed me. Came home and my PC died, then the handle broke off of my toilet. This has been a very bad few days, I'm weary.
Sounds like you need to back the blue so you can catch the bad guys/ Just don't call the police on any POC or you're a racist bigot.
That is so awful man. I hope you’re doing a bit better today. Sending love from Missouri
I hope you get a moment to watch the sun set tonight. Many deep breaths friend 💛
Rest well friend. One bite at a time
And that is why you dont walk under ladders! (Tho seriously that sucks, hope things turn around)
The part where he says "land does not vote", but that's kind of what the electoral college does, give more voting power to people in lower population density areas
I'm a business analyst for a living. It's frustrating beyond belief trying to convey how misleading these graphs (and others) are to people that adamantly believe what the chart creator is trying to instill in them. In my head doing my job isn't all that hard, but in retrospect maybe it is for the common person 🤦🏻
Reminder: if you want to find the truth, turn towards Twitter… and head in the exact opposite direction
Something that people don't realize is that in 2020 a lot more people got an absentee ballot in the mail (you know due to a certain pandemic). This made it a lot more convenient for more people to vote. This helped cause a few things one of which was that people who felt like their vote didn't matter were much less likely to actually vote. ("Why wait in line to vote if it doesn't change anything?" as opposed to "my vote probably doesn't matter but I have the ballot already so might as well fill it out.") This makes red counties look redder and blue counties look bluer (on the arrow map). The pandemic totally changed the way the 2020 election looked and the way it took place which makes comparison very difficult, and usually misleading.
This is an interesting point and I know that voting accessibility was compromised in quite a few areas. However, I don't think we currently have an idea of real numbers that would suggest the significance of those changes, e.g. how many people had mail-in ballot access in 2020 but didn't in 2024. But certainly a whole let less people voted this cycle
Thank you for being a voice of reason. These tines are very uncertain
Hank, thanks for making videos even in the midst of this certain uncertainty. I hope to see you and John working a lot during these next four years to help us push back against the violence and lies peddled by the people who desire to control us and make us feel like we don't deserve to be free and happy.
An extremely important and absent piece of context to all of these election maps is "how many people DIDN'T vote?"
Also, one thing I have seen from many people, as warning signs before the election and as analysis after the election, is that people broadly felt that the democratic party abandoned them. Not only was there assumption that the main base would vote for them anyway, there was active rejection of many demographics that normally vote for democrats. Anger aimed towards genocide protestors at universities and legislation intended to label them as "antisemitic" for protesting genocidal actions and not ethnic groups. That alienates Arabic populations as well as young voters in universities. Latino/latina populations didn't get any concessions. Black voters didn't get concessions. Anti-war people didn't get concessions.
Most people are caught up in their daily lives and aren't as likely to hear all the details. They care about narratives and stories and what affects them most immediately. The democratic party desperately needs to change to activate their base again instead of taking that base for granted, clearly. I just hope that the comments from people at high levels of control in the party aren't truly indicative of where they're going since they indicated they think they're not enough like republicans already. But, I have to admit, I don't have much personal hope of that at this point.
Thanks for touching on Point 2. I've been feeling the same, but as someone outside the US, without US voting rights, I feel utterly useless while still being fully aware that what happens in the US has an affect on my part of the world too.
I'm living in the US without US voting rights 😭
I pay taxes for this and don't even get to throw my one tiny scrap of paper into the mix
Thanks for posting, even though you were already struggling leading up to the election. I see you, Hank. And I appreciate what you do.
This graph has been driving me insane since Nov 6th.... Thanks
At this point, you need to stop emotionally reacting to ignorance. It's been like this for a long time. You know this is the world you live in. Stressing about misinformation will only waste energy and drain your emotion health.
Hank, leading up to the election it was framed as a coinflip - 50/50, anyone’s game. Now that it's over, there's a flood of analysis from one side, digging into all the reasons for the loss. It makes me wonder: Was there a hidden factor missing in the simulations, and it wasn’t really a coinflip after all? Or if it truly was a coinflip, what’s all this post-analysis actually giving us that we didn’t have before? It’s like I’m picturing a literal coin flip, it lands, and suddenly experts are brought in to explain why it landed heads instead of tails. 🤔
Most analysis is back looking and seeks justification for things that happened.
I wouldn't put much weight into these people unless their forward looking analysis is also usually right.
This is the problem I have with polling. All of the polling data and surveys indicated that people would vote for Harris about as much as they would vote for Trump; so it’s a coin flip, and the campaigns felt comfortable going into the race with that information. What campaign strategy often misses though, is putting together the head to head polls with “country vibes” polling questions like “do you approve of the current administration” or “do you think the country is on the right track”. Biden stayed in the race because he was winning head to head polls, but an incumbent admin will LOSE if the vibes questions are overwhelmingly negative, and they were. The Biden admin, as Hank said, is historically unpopular to a ridiculous degree, which should have indicated a much lower voter turnout than Dems claimed they expected, and a much higher turnout for Trump, which is what we saw on election night.
We need to stop staring at the “people will vote for Harris 50% more of the time to Trump 49%”. Or whatever the head to head polls are saying, and we need to stop campaigning off of margins like that. Control the vibes questions. Those should be the only priority, and it’s why we’ve needed a stronger labor movement candidate.
i think being able to properly capture the entirety of the dynamics impacting one of the world's largest regular elections is a mathematician's wildest dream. i'd compare the reaction less to scientific analysis, but to how humans process unwanted outcomes (similar to the stages of grief)
it's part of our nature to reflect upon circumstances outside of our control (because let's be honest, on an individual level that is true) and to try to rationalize our way into a comforting understanding of the why and how. we like to think that things are predictable, we are comforted by the concept of control. our analysis is biased by this undying desire to be able to do something different next time. we are still in the emotional aftermath of this event, real rational analysis is a long ways away.
It wasn't a coin flip. Polling averages showed Trump leading in all/almost all swing states, and slightly ahead in the popular vote. Betting markets clearly favored Trump. Wishful thinking clouded people's judgement, but the result was not surprising given the data we had.
That is exactly what's happening. None of the analysis is good faith attempts to understand, either. The choice of what to blame is entirely strategic (also these people have no clue why anything happened, they just get paid a lot to pretend they do)
"A lot of bad takes that are not representative of reality" Very very true, but, we're now in a country that seems utterly impervious to facts and that entails massive boding of the horrific kind.
Yuuuup.....
Cope and seethe we won.
Congrats, your sport team won, see how it will actually improve your life in the next four years 😂
your president only cares about his rich friends. he will not do anything for your gullible ass and it’s so obvious. we’re all laughing at you from outside the US
speaking on the election itself, one thing that irks me is that whenever a republican wins, everyone sees it as a free and fair election (which it is) and the democrat concedes. yet, whenever a democrat wins, you get millions of people saying it's unfair and that we need to re-count and this and that, and the republican doesn't concede unless there's an act of god.
what's with that? it's just something that has annoyed me since i've been able to vote (and even before that, lol).
All conservatives are Republican but not all Republicans are conservative, I would say its the conservative part that got mad
@Chance_Rice true, it's just simpler to say democrat/republican since those are the parties, whilst liberal/conservative are more ideologies.
Just like 2016, when the Democrats cried and screamed for 4 years about Russian election interference and tried to delegitimize the Trump Presidency? And Obama illegally spied on the Trump campaign by lying in order to get FISA warrants. Look it up.
Besides spite, you're one of my biggest inspirations to keep on trudging
I felt like I really needed this to smack some calm and rationality back into me because everyone is emotionally compromised and social media is going crazy. This was a good reminder to breathe and really look at things.
Hank if Not for you I would have not gotten though my crisis in school as an adult student Thank you. You have a beautiful mind and we need you. You are qualified!
I'm just... I'm so indescribably angry that the emotion has circled back twice and now I'm just numb. Doesn't feel quite real yet. I live in a rural, conservative area and this is just going to make me retreat even further but I can't bear to look these people in the eye anymore tbh.
Dig a hole in your back yard and sit in it. Trumps your new daddy! 🎉
@@Ryanwizardstaff You're right, me being upset that people voted in a fascist is definitely the problem here.
Grow up, you're acting !like conservatives after 2020
@@jttinsleyjoey Nice try bud.
@josephceschini5023 i didn't try anything. I called you an infant lol you infant
I've been thinking for a long time that we need kids to get a "Defense Against The Dark Arts" class where we specifically train this sort of critical thinking. There are dark wizards out there working hard to deceive you - for political reasons (propaganda), but also for commercial ones (advertising and marketing). Not to mention just good old fashioned scamming and phishing and hustling.
They use bad graphs, bad data, yes - but also fallacious arguments, psychological tricks, and lots and lots of money.
We need to teach these examples in schools; how to spot them, how to analyze them critically, how to talk about them productively to others who are being misled.
You do such a good job of this. Your recent video on Elon Musk's factually incorrect tweets was another gem. I feel like this could be a whole series, or even a whole channel.
Keep up the good work!!!
But I thought you guys hate J.K. Rowling now? lol
Critical thinking and media literacy are sorely needed in this country, and that's exactly what the republican party wants to make sure people don't get.
@@devinglass9967God forbid people have nuance these days I guess
@@devinglass9967A lot of "us" read her books before she came out as a transphobic ghoul. It was a quite popular book series! Culturally important, even, for a lot of us who tend to be rather nerdy.
Kids can't be arsed to do anything hard.🤨
Greetings from Juneau. Alaska is organized into boroughs, which essentially function like counties. Some boroughs, like The City and Borough of Juneau, are unified with a city and also function the same as a city. Others like the Mat-Su Borough may incorporate many smaller cities and function as an umbrella entity above them. But boroughs are created by the people who live in the given area, and it's possible to simply not choose to have (or not have the political infrastructure to create) a borough. Much of rural Alaska is within "the unorganized borough," which is really just no borough at all. But with so much of Alaska so sparsely populated and difficult to access, a defined county system doesn't really work up here.
help us organize. lives are at stake. please be bold about this. I don't even need to tell you which way to think. You're smart, Hank. Much dumber people are dominating this space.
@@Dad_Jordan Misinformation peddler
@@Dad_Jordan I love when people who only watch Fox news assume everyone else religiously watches a singular news source. It's really telling.
@@IcespherePlaysGames do you believe that anyone’s life is at stake besides Trumps own?
@@IcespherePlaysGames and you just assumed I watch fox (I don’t), you’re a hypocrite buddy
@@Dad_Jordan A lot of lives are at stake. The GOP's abortion bans are going to get more women killed than they will save fetuses. Abortions are necessary for more than just accidental pregnancies.
Trump can incite violence on anyone he hates like he did on January 6th, like he did to the legal Haitian immigrants, the poll workers, the FEMA operators and innumerable others.
His supporters blindly believe his lies and will attack anyone who they deem as a threat to him. He's dangerous and untouchable and he knows it.
Thank you Hank and all other Nerdfighters. Self care and when you are ready keep an eye open for opportunities to act.
Correcting bad takes on Hankschannel seems like something a lot of us would like to see. Thank you, Hank!
I saw this graph on twitter, and also immediately realized all of those issues in it, not because I am that smart, but because tons of people pointed them out in the comments! This is the steelman for why open discourse helps elevate truth.
One of the other ways graphs lie to you is that it assumes that the body of voters is the same each election, but the breakdown of those voters changed. In many cases, there were people who were non-voters that decided to vote for Trump, or Biden voters who decided not to vote for Harris. I don't know the number of "Biden voters turned Trump voters" but I'm wary of graphs that make it seem like that's what happened.
Difficult week for those of us who value reason and reality.
Puss boy
The reality is that Trump is the 47th President of the United States
No, I am having a great week.
Yeah, I've been chronically online for the past few days trying to support and encourage everyone. I'm scared for the future.
@@toggle2565 You didn't read the sentence correctly. It doesn't apply to you. See where it says "those of us who value reason and reality" and not "those of us who would've voted for Hitler"?
I want to say thank you to this whole community for making this a safe and loved place.
+❤️
I’m really glad Hank (and by extension John, even though he avoided election talk) are being really level-headed and such when it comes to the election and such, at least so far. Cuz it’s really difficult seeing SO many people resort to doom and gloom, some even already deciding to flee the country. I’m just happy they aren’t mongering anything and just being factual and stuffs. It’s good to see, at least to me.
They aren't going to flee. They said that last time and look what happened.
@@EmogetaMost people don’t have the means to leave a place they’d rather not live in. People staying when times are bad for them is an indicator of unfreedom.
@@CharlieQuartz Sounds like the technological new age and start of the transhuman era.
@@Emogetatake your meds
@@Emogeta
1. … what?
2. Suggesting that the average person escape into cyberspace to avoid their real problems ignores every possible reality of that situation. It’s unbelievable that some people actually hope for Ready Player One or worse to come true.
Hank know that I love you even though we have never met. Stay safe out there it’s gonna be rough for everyone and educated motivated voices like you are important.
I eagerly await your analysis. Rational, evidence-based voices with huge audiences are even more important now.
One piece of advice, as an argentinian having had similarly awful elections for the past 3 iterations: the election was lost months ago, when the candidates got locked in and they were two awful old men with terrible reputations. Kamala was a weird twist but the bottom line is that something is failing WAY before the elections if you're having to make these kind of decisions.
Kamala never won a primary and would have lost to someone like Bernie. She has never had a huge following.
@@ekki1993 this is very true. The democrat party has a terrible primary system. What they did to Bernie in 2016 has lead to all of this insanity.
I feel like it was lost in 2021 when Joe Manchin blocked the BBB plan. All that Biden was going to do to help ordinary people fizzled, and he never regained his prestige. Nobody really liked him again.
Good luck with the chainsaw guy.
One more term of Trump won’t be a disaster. The concern is basically that it won’t be one term.
@@Justanotherconsumer exactly
As someone who makes a lot of electoral maps as a hobby (mostly for Wikipedia pages on elections in Texas), I constantly struggle with how to balance the simplicity of the map with trying to explain its context. I can look at a map of Wisconsin and instinctively know that the blue dots of Milwaukee and Madison represent a lot more people than the blue dots of La Crosse and Eau Claire, but someone who doesn’t do this all the time won’t, so I have to explain it to them.
I prefer making precincts maps, since most precincts are supposed to be within roughly an order of magnitude of population from any other given precinct in a state, but that comes with its own set of problems (namely that there are thousands of them and that you have to zoom in and out a bunch when looking at different cities). There is no perfect solution, but it’s always important to try to understand the context of maps you’re looking at, and if you’re the one making the map, make sure that context is easily attainable or directly explained.
Thanks Hank. I'm trying to figure out things as well and coming up with a resistance plan for the next 4 years. Glad to know you are still with me.
Thanks for making stuff, Hank. It's very understandable that a lot of people are feeling uninspired right now & needing a break from everything.
Today I walked my dogs in the woods & saw lots of cool moss & ravens.
Thanks Hank. Appreciating this channel this week.
This is the kind of stuff they should be showing on public TV, vital information about how to read statistics
Thanks Hank. I have felt like I need to do something since the election but I don't know what. I do think hearing from communities I trust and care about has been helpful.
I do love how these graphs and “data” about how many Dems stayed home started before all votes were counted.
Specifically before all votes were counted in the west coast states. Hmmmmm wonder how these trends appeared in our incomplete data set
Thank you. For this video. For everything. You are both bright spots in my world, and especially you, Hank. You are the central point of so many of the bright spots in my life and part of the reason I'm still trying to become a scientist. I hope you find many happy, bright spots right now. I hope all of you do, that all of us do.
I cannot get over my joy at your level of information literacy and your ability to communicate it. You are so brilliant and I am grateful for you ❤
Appreciate your work Hank. If you are going to stay in informed for these events. Know that I will too.
I'm right there with you Hank I don't know how to think about this I don't know how to understand this and I'm trying my hardest not to fall into this pit of mistrust and darkness thank you for your video I believe it did what you wanted it to do
@jttinsleyjoey troll go back to your bridge I doubt these fine people want your disgusting smell wafting about ruining everyone's day
@jttinsleyjoey Troll go back to your bridge we don't want you here unless you plan on actually saying something relevant
Thanks for explaining Hank! It is so easy to be fooled by a map. I never actually stopped to check what exactly the arrows in that map really meant.
Thank you, Hank. I’m a queer person living in Missouri, a very red state. The LGBT+ people I’m around are extremely sad but also more motivated than ever to fight for change. We’re getting organized and preparing for the next four years. To my fellow LGBT+/queer friends- talk to those around you, get organized, and prepare. Look into online activist spaces and try to bring those topics up in real life conversations. But more than anything else, enjoy the holidays and enjoy your life now. We don’t know what will happen, but for now we are okay. Hope is not lost, and you are not alone. Taking care of yourselves is a fantastic act of protest.
Also, Hank- I’m graduating at the beginning of December with a degree in comp sci and minors in math and philosophy. I used to hate all of those subjects actually because I found them too challenging. Your videos inspired me when I was younger. I wanted to challenge myself to learn more and develop strong, informed beliefs. You helped give me the framework I needed to make informed decisions. I’m certainly not alone in that. Right now things feel bleak, but you have made a huge difference in so many people’s lives and can continue to do so. Thank you again, and I wish you the best in whatever is to come in the next 4 years.
I agree that there have been a lot of bad takes. I suspect that my own take is one of them. I'm still trying to figure this out, but it's hard for me to get past the sense that, to most of this country's electorate, I am apparently not considered a person worthy of rights because I have a uterus.
You are not alone Hank. A map video was just what I didn't know I needed this week, thank you 💖
THANK YOU. Honestly just knowing I'm not the only one who thinks like this if so comforting... I've felt like I'm in crazy town the past few days seeing people pass these charts around without thinking.
The map discussion is a very welcome thing for me. Because I live in one of the stranger states to depict on an election map on: New York State. On most maps, we would be a “blue state”. But then when you break down the state itself, the New York City area is blue and the rest is red. Which makes it seem like everyone in Upstate New York is a Republican. But it does not account for the fact that a lot of NYS isn’t inhabited by people. You can’t build cities in places like the Adirondacks or the Catskills. Partially because they’re mountains and partially because there are laws trying to preserve the wilderness that’s left in them (and as you said, land doesn’t vote).
Thanks I felt like this was the case but wasn’t gonna look into it bc I don’t have the energy for that.
I can’t even acknowledge what’s happened yet because I’m so crushed
1:20 "Fill in the blank with your own biases"
This was my reaction to hearing about a vote disparity. I feel like there are so many good reasons for why there might be a disparity (if there even is one in the end) that don't rely on malicious manipulation that it would foolish to take such a disparity as evidence for said manipulation.
I'm really grateful that you are willing to admit you aren't an expert on all topics, and explain what that means.
And that you use that to make well researched content that is very aware and open about the limitations.
Just, thank you. I think it really helps to show how complicated, silly, diverse, and wonderful the world is. How you can spend meaningful time researching and trying to understand and that there can still be big questions. That being curious and trying to find answers can lead to you being very knowledgeable and versed and still lacking in the answer, and how that's both beautiful and hard.
I deeply value the journey of research and making sense of it all. And the last almost two decades worth vlog brothers has been wonderful for that journey.
The first thing I learned in my college stats class was: when graphing "represent magnitudes honestly" and when you see a graph always check the actual data because most people do not represent magnitudes honestly. It's easy to make a graph that technically isn't lying, but our brain is processing it as magnitudes when something else is shown. Cutting off the Y axis like you showed is so common and I hate it!
Hank, I’ve been seeing data everywhere that millions of dems didn’t vote for Harris but they had for Biden. Can you help me understand if this is true or not?
Been following you for ages, love it!
As a fellow Montanan I also am always frustrated with how we get treated on maps
Alaska doesn't have counties, but it does have a system of subdivisions. It has 19 organized boroughs which have their own level of government like counties in other states. And then there's the "unorganized borough" which is divided into 11 "census areas" and is administered directly by the state of Alaska. So all together Alaska has 30 subdivisions. Louisiana is the only other state to call its subdivisions something other than counties, but at least Louisiana calls all 64 of theirs "parishes" instead of having a confusing system of boroughs and census areas.
I'm not sure why, but the official state website in Alaska shows results not by borough/census area, but by state house district. Despite results being individually available for all 40 Alaska state house districts, CNN, the NYT, and Google don't divide the results for Alaska up at all, which is probably why that map only has one arrow for the entire state.
In the case of Louisiana, the name "Parish" is just a nod to the state's Catholic history. They used to be counties until 1845, and still function just like any other state's counties.
Thank you for this video. I will have to look in getting that book.
I’m in the U.K., and let’s face it, we’ve had many of the problems you have right now. You can survive it, but there’s a lesson to take from the big orange baby; start campaigning now for the next election. Remember, all he needed to do was publicly criticise those in power without any expectations to be able to do anything about it. You have the right to free speech and the right to assemble (they can’t take it away from you without risking that amendment they love so much). Use those rights, organise and get out there now. His party played a very long game starting from the ground up, it’s time to do the same
If a similar map were drawn with one arrow per congressional district (that is, one arrow per House seat), would that “fix” the county size problem? It wouldn’t be perfect of course (the restrictions of 435 districts that must each be part of only one of the 50 states means that some districts are unavoidably going to have more people than others, especially in the states that only get one seat), but if we ignore that effect, would it fix the “land doesn’t vote” problem?
Heck, if we went one step further and drew 538 arrows, one per House seat, one per Senate seat, plus one arrow for each of DC’s 3 electoral votes (meaning each Presidential election voter should be part of three different arrows), I think we’d get a map that could show an intuitive representation of how the electorate’s _influence_ on the result changed, even taking the electoral college into account. There’s still the “all-or-nothing” slate of electors problem though, I suppose.
Unironically, get Hasan or Vaush to continue this conversation forward.
Great Video, Love the Tea quiz! :3
Totally not having to do with this video but here it is anyways.
I feel like a lot of people have forgotten how to human. I saw a woman in a comment section say how scared she is of losing healthcare due to chronic illness. And a person responded some version of "ha ha, lib tears, move or die." And it just kinda shocked me.
I know this is the internet but when did it get where people are comfortable laughing at truly scared folks? I feel like I'm in a daycare watching a handful of 4 year olds running around biting people and laughing. And at least one teacher is egging them on, laughing along, and giving them gold stars for doing it.
I'm not talking about ethics or morals. Literally just being human. Holding doors for people, not tripping old ladies crossing the street, feeling sad when you see a sad person. These are just _human_ things and I don't know when being human became something to question in a significant part of the population.
I don't know. Just thoughts.
Yes, democrats have forgotten how to behave like humans.
Because people suffering no consequences of being evil assholes on the internet has made them comfortable. Internet anonymity is both a blessing and a curse.
You do know half the internet isnt real people right? You almost know that trolls don't have lives or do what Trump or Elon does and tweet like 30 times a day.
I think because certain people choose who they are empathetic or sympathetic towards, and revoke that empathy and sympathy arbitrarily, based on who they feel would be sympathetic towards them.
It's my personal belief that humanity's greatest accomplishment is the ability to feel for *everything*, like feeling sad about dented cans at a grocery store, or saying sorry to a table you ran into. It is our greatest sin that humans can also revoke that feeling for anything, including other people.
I try to remember that everyone, *everyone* is human, and deserves a baseline level of respect for that. I don't know how to remind other people of that though, this is a personal understanding I came to privately and I don't know how to convince others of that, or even if it would be ethical to do so. That's just my two cents
That's what's shocking to me too. It's disturbing.
Stats 101: Always check the y-axis.
I'm a data guy. Data visualization is a whole giant topic. I worked at a place that had over 3 billion pieces of information a month and the sales team (among others) had to pare that down to something a human brain could wrap itself around. For most sales people that means a simple line graph.
I have a suspicion that all of the charts Hank mentioned in this video are deficient in part because we need more than three dimensions to accurately capture all aspects of the data. Would you say that that's accurate?
Also, avoid news and news-adjacent media, take brisk walks if you’re physically able, and, most importantly, spend lots of time with dogs.
I’m a young, queer college student. I’m scared and nervous for my future, my rights, my safety and especially those of my friends and the people I love. Thank you for alleviating my mind with some comforting data :)
@@zbatchDOC It's not MSNBC. It is trump's BEHAVIOR that we can see. Plus, you lie. Glad we cleared that up.
The only thing I can think of is to talk to or read about people who were in your situation when it was even more dangerous. Let their expertise guide you about how to best survive this. Because we know that some did. And you will too. History is your friend right now.
Ignore the other commenter. You are important, you are loved. I’m also a young queer college student and I’m scared too. We can get through this, I know it. We just have to stick together. 💜
@@jttinsleyjoey
Ooooo
A trans person will exist within 400 miles of you
Ooooo
Spoooooooky
@@ThePoodle yeah, ya'll look very spooky indeed
Thank you Hank
I (and looking at it, America) need a series of detective Hank going deep to uncover high-profile cases of graph crime. Maybe call it something catchy and noir like "Crash Course Data Science"
3:22 as super weird as the population corrected map looks, I _do_ like that it looks like a MAJESTIC PHOENIX rising from the ashes.