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I will buy his book. It is 2024 now and he wrote this book in 2003. Considering what happened between these two dates, he proved to be an excellent historian. About this interview: It would have been so nice to hear the guest to talk more. The host keeps interrupting, it is so annoying.
I first heard him a few days ago on French TV being interviewed about his new book. He's STILL being constantly interrupted . It's because he has something to say that the MSM find totally unacceptable.
He also anticipated collapse of USSR during 80's whith demographic study. "Todd attracted attention in 1976 when, at age 25, he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, based on indicators such as increasing infant mortality rates: La chute finale: Essais sur la décomposition de la sphère Soviétique (The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere).[3]" Wikipedia
He start to had reputation during 90's when he anticipated the collapse of USSR with demographic studies. "Todd attracted attention in 1976 when, at age 25, he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, based on indicators such as increasing infant mortality rates: La chute finale: Essais sur la décomposition de la sphère Soviétique (The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere).[3]" Source: wikipedia
He is very brave to say those things in year 2003, it must have been pretty "wild" for an average American to hear such predictions but he hit the nail on the head. I will watch this few more times just to soak it all in and digest it correctly, thank you Emmanuel Todd.
Since the WWII, US economy has been based on USD as global reserve currency and MIC. War is a business. As long as the US can borrow in $ and print greenbacks without domestic inflaflatory consequences, it had worked. Dedollarisation and BRICS will be a blow.
@2:20 he has that bit completely backwards. The US Tsy securities everyone else buys is with USD the US government already spent, so the USA already got the goods. When their US Tsy bond matures the FED just debits the Tsy account and credits the bond holders check account. The "debt" is only an obligation to redeem for the currency issuer, it is not a burden to anyone's grandchildren or the "tax payer". Tax payers cannot get the dollar until the government first spends, or State licensed banks issue credit. The reality of "a huge trade deficit" is that the USA sends everyone a bank account statement (cheaper than paper) and everyone else sends the USA computers, smartphones, BMW's and the rest. The USA is making everyone else into their factory workers. The US "West" will only collapse when their trade deficit is drastically reduced, meaning that no one wants to export to the USA anymore. When the hell is that ever likely to happen? People have gross greed and insatiable demand for the US dollar. If you can eliminate that greed then the USA might decline. I don't see that happening in my lifetime.
There are now many question marks hanging over the strength of the US economy. Much of the USA's $21 Trillion GDP is made of FIRE and service transactions. China's industrial output alone exceeds that of the US, EU, AUS, NZ, Japan and South Korea (The West) combined! The Russia-Ukraine war has also exposed how Russia alone produces more weapons than the combined West on a far less budget. What happens when the rest of the world continues to accelerate de-dollarization and the US can no longer get goods for free by virtue of having a reserve currency?
Some answers, the Chinese economy is mostly reliant on exports and leverage in the Chinese system is far higher than US ever had, without having the cusion of reserve currency. Russia can produce a lot of weapons of inferior quality but when supplied with western equipments, a relatively weak nation can cause a stalemate with Russia. De-dollarization sounds great in theory but in practice it would be difficult to replace it with a less trustworthy currency like the Yuan.
We don't need another reserve currency(balance of pmts). We won't miss all the bloody bags that come with the $ Don't worry about China; they will be fine. Being the world bully is tiring. Wake up and adapt to change: unless we egoistically want to push the rest of the world to collective suicide. Sad!
@ftk2589 Don't anything is sacrosanct because of a book, as we tend to read accept the arguments that supports our opinion, Russia is indeed gifted with abundant natural resources still their system of governance has let them down.
@ftk2589 Please keep laughing its good for mental health, if according to you I don't have the moral standing to question something, then there is no point continuing this forward. Adios.
@@raouledjoo9479China produces in a year more naval vessels than the UK’s whole fleet. It has the fastest transition to green energy and net zero in the world. They are now trading with Russia in these countries local currencies. Sanctions against China (after Russia) will be the final nail to the EU and most likely to the USA.
Emmanuel Todd makes a good point about the theatrics of "show" wars. On the other hand, I always believed that Iraq was the door opener to the MidEast. I wonder how much Israel influenced Bush's decision to attack Iraq.
Ignoring entirely the fact that the USSR helped Europe to defeat the Nazis as well, and sacrificed approximately 50 times the number of lives that Americans did. This didn't age well for the interviewer. American exceptionalism worn as goggles while sitting in the garden of America cultivated from European cuttings pondering how to extend it to encompass the globe.
Looking back at the expansion of NATO to Georgia and Ukraine was part of the same process. It's interesting that there was very little support for NATO in those countries, but still by clever manipulation of the local elites the Americans brought it about, with obvious help from their eastern European allies.
nope. that it totally relevant. especially today. The effort the USA puts in making sure Europe remains a vasal, going as far as destroying the Nord Stream pipeline which is harming the German Economie. He is completely right.
@@azenkwedYou missed the point. I agree that USA makes an effort to keep Europe as a vassal.But it's nothing to do with that being scared, it's proven since the ddecisions after World War II, that it is to maintain a market for US gooods and to keep them as a unit for US interests militarrily, also. You need to do research on the decisioon on both Germany and Japan's future directly post-war, because this proves my point. the initial decision, was later changed by businessman, from changing Germany into an impotent agricultural society(As punishment and avoidance off future destruction), to rebuilding its industrial capability to facilitate market for the future US globalised world to make morre money for USA.This was only becausee Germany and Japan would be the biggest markets as they have the most numerous population- This is not debatable, it is the offficial reason, in congressional debates on the topic. * US elites knew that Europe would never be a threat - Germany was only ever a threat to thosee directly around it anyway - that's how USA became the ascenndaant military and economic power. "In the 1st place." - Geographical privilege in beinng able to stay out of a war and actually make mone FROM the war, whilst everyone else was becoming imppoverished and destroyed. The only way for European couuntries to remain a legitimate competitor and threat to United States, individually as countries e.g. UK, Fraance and Germany, as they still were, despite having slipped marginally behind the USA in wealth and powerafter World War I, wato find a waay to avoid a repeat of that conflict, because they simply don't have the population sizes to compete . The conflict happened again, those countries Unfortunately, for them, they are geographhically next to each other and cannot avoid such a thing and the rest is history. Europe is obviously finished in multiple ways If it doesn't find a way to work together and become a more efficient "Homogenised" group - especially the tradditional elite powers of UK, France, Germanyand Italy. Over time, tech and information becomes cheaper, more readily available and more easily transferable, so it doesn't matter how clever your population is, aas individuals, e.g. the ancestors of the UKin particular, inventing the modern world with libberal democracy and the explosion of industriinventions… eventually larger landmasses, better natural resoources and much larger populations will be able to harness that tech as well and eventually will become far more powerfful than you. if Europe doesn't find a solutionwithin 10 years, thenBrazil, India, IndonesiaNigeria, Argentina, amongst others, will join China, as countries that achieve "at least" parity with UK, and France and thenn move aheaad of them afterwards, which will lead to their impoverishment economically and militarily
@@azenkwed Totaly agree and would suggest to add use of the extraterritorial law on US dollar as a weapon to maintain european company as vasal too with tremendous fine.
Now 2024 he is in the right direction different of Fukuyama that is wrong. Eurasia is a great power region now with Russia and China. Germany tried to be free from UsA but they can’t. Now Russia is in charge with China.
Did America really help to fight Nazism!!!! Seems to have forgotten where the defeated Nazi went…… and how they were hidden and shielded……. Except for the unlucky few who got prosecuted!!!!
And do you remember "Dr" Mengele? It was never mentioned, anywhere, what happened to him after the war. I heard something, which many years ago sounded crazy, but now I can believe it. They say he got a new job in the U.S., doing terrible researches involving children. They needed somebody who had the stomach for it. Now I think it was true.
Well, the German engineers finished their work with rockets (V1&2) and the atomic bomb very comfortably and openly in the US. All Allied including the USSR benefitted from German engineering skills.
My sense is that Rose doesn't understand the theoretical framework that historians use to think about nation states and international relations. When Todd says "America" he's referencing the Empire and it's power politics. When Rose hears "America" he thinks of the elected government. This interview took place over 20 years before terms like deep state came into parlance. Todd even points out 6:50 that specific actors may or may not really be conscious of the real trajectory of power. One has to at a minimum separate neo-liberal rhetoric from the real world implications and results of policy.
yeah and Emanuel catches this vibe and specifically mentions not to take it with feelings and emotion and that he is not anti-American. Russia is needed as a balancer is a 100% true, United States throwing a tantrum because it wants to be the single power, like it was during the 90 and so on, its crazy.
Valuable analysis by a very perceptive thinker, though the topics aren't the most current ones, things are changing. But read the book by Emmanuel Todd "The defeat of the West" (2024) -- if you can read it at all (it's in French so I can't & the "English" version I have is a google translation, pretty horrible. For all the money they pay their AI team there should be a better LLM for French-to-English translation; reading this great book is like trying to understand some recent immigrant butchering the language. I enjoy the weird experience though, it's like deliberately switching off the gps guidance in your car, makes you think more :-) . Where to find the book, not yet officially translated to English? libgen. If you don't know what it is, you're unfortunate - find out a.s.a.p.
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Emmanuel Todd vision is based on reality! Thank you Todd!
I will buy his book. It is 2024 now and he wrote this book in 2003. Considering what happened between these two dates, he proved to be an excellent historian. About this interview: It would have been so nice to hear the guest to talk more. The host keeps interrupting, it is so annoying.
I first heard him a few days ago on French TV being interviewed about his new book. He's STILL being constantly interrupted . It's because he has something to say that the MSM find totally unacceptable.
He recently published another book untitled "The Defeat of the West" 3 weeks ago and it is taking France by storm.
Thank you, I will keep an eye on it for the English version. It's not on Amazon yet.@@HamzaBaqoushi
He also anticipated collapse of USSR during 80's whith demographic study.
"Todd attracted attention in 1976 when, at age 25, he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, based on indicators such as increasing infant mortality rates: La chute finale: Essais sur la décomposition de la sphère Soviétique (The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere).[3]" Wikipedia
He start to had reputation during 90's when he anticipated the collapse of USSR with demographic studies.
"Todd attracted attention in 1976 when, at age 25, he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, based on indicators such as increasing infant mortality rates: La chute finale: Essais sur la décomposition de la sphère Soviétique (The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere).[3]" Source: wikipedia
He is probably among the last majors french intellectuals.
He wrote a new book not yet translated in english: The West defeat
He is very brave to say those things in year 2003, it must have been pretty "wild" for an average American to hear such predictions but he hit the nail on the head.
I will watch this few more times just to soak it all in and digest it correctly, thank you Emmanuel Todd.
Wow, Emmanuel thinking has proven to be a prophecy listening to this 2003 interview 22 years later
Excellent Summary. Brilliant !!!
amazing prediction! I was in college at the time studying macroeconomics . . . chilling.
His analysis of Ukraine war is brilliant
Agreed ! This guy is massively underrated, he’s a geopolitical David Goggins
What Todd said in this interview about America 20 yeras ago is much clearer now than ever
All he say is absolutely right in my opinion
Wish I had known of Emmanuel Todd earlier. Cant trust the UK media to focus on who really. matters intellectually any longer.
And he got his PhD in Cambridge University
This guy predicted the fall of the USSR in 1976!!
And he predicted the end of the west power
khoya hamza, it's nice to see that another morrocan is also a fan of emmanuel todd, i wish you the best to you and to your family. Lahi 7afdek khoya.
@@AliBaresi مرحبا السي علي بارك الله فيك و شكرا بزاف . تحياتي.
Since the WWII, US economy has been based on USD as global reserve currency and MIC. War is a business. As long as the US can borrow in $ and print greenbacks without domestic inflaflatory consequences, it had worked. Dedollarisation and BRICS will be a blow.
You have no idea what you’re talking about
@@CalNaughtonjr33are you serious??
This moderator needs to be quiet and let the guest finish his thought.
Rose Self Exincted
I’m buying his book. 👍
This aged well
idneed:)
The interviewer shows ignorance mentioning Iraq, Kosovo...
It's an old upload, regardless: thanks !
Apex french intellectual.. Still active today
what an extremely intelligent and beautiful man i have a crush on him.
@2:20 he has that bit completely backwards. The US Tsy securities everyone else buys is with USD the US government already spent, so the USA already got the goods. When their US Tsy bond matures the FED just debits the Tsy account and credits the bond holders check account. The "debt" is only an obligation to redeem for the currency issuer, it is not a burden to anyone's grandchildren or the "tax payer". Tax payers cannot get the dollar until the government first spends, or State licensed banks issue credit.
The reality of "a huge trade deficit" is that the USA sends everyone a bank account statement (cheaper than paper) and everyone else sends the USA computers, smartphones, BMW's and the rest. The USA is making everyone else into their factory workers. The US "West" will only collapse when their trade deficit is drastically reduced, meaning that no one wants to export to the USA anymore. When the hell is that ever likely to happen? People have gross greed and insatiable demand for the US dollar. If you can eliminate that greed then the USA might decline. I don't see that happening in my lifetime.
What an intelligent French man who speaks very good English without a French accent either.
Emmanuel Todd is the best analyst.
There are now many question marks hanging over the strength of the US economy.
Much of the USA's $21 Trillion GDP is made of FIRE and service transactions.
China's industrial output alone exceeds that of the US, EU, AUS, NZ, Japan and South Korea (The West) combined!
The Russia-Ukraine war has also exposed how Russia alone produces more weapons than the combined West on a far less budget.
What happens when the rest of the world continues to accelerate de-dollarization and the US can no longer get goods for free by virtue of having a reserve currency?
Some answers, the Chinese economy is mostly reliant on exports and leverage in the Chinese system is far higher than US ever had, without having the cusion of reserve currency.
Russia can produce a lot of weapons of inferior quality but when supplied with western equipments, a relatively weak nation can cause a stalemate with Russia.
De-dollarization sounds great in theory but in practice it would be difficult to replace it with a less trustworthy currency like the Yuan.
We don't need another reserve currency(balance of pmts). We won't miss all the bloody bags that come with the $
Don't worry about China; they will be fine.
Being the world bully is tiring. Wake up and adapt to change: unless we egoistically want to push the rest of the world to collective suicide. Sad!
@ftk2589 Don't anything is sacrosanct because of a book, as we tend to read accept the arguments that supports our opinion, Russia is indeed gifted with abundant natural resources still their system of governance has let them down.
@ftk2589 Please keep laughing its good for mental health, if according to you I don't have the moral standing to question something, then there is no point continuing this forward. Adios.
@@raouledjoo9479China produces in a year more naval vessels than the UK’s whole fleet. It has the fastest transition to green energy and net zero in the world. They are now trading with Russia in these countries local currencies. Sanctions against China (after Russia) will be the final nail to the EU and most likely to the USA.
Emmanuel Todd makes a good point about the theatrics of "show" wars.
On the other hand, I always believed that Iraq was the door opener to the MidEast. I wonder how much Israel influenced Bush's decision to attack Iraq.
Ignoring entirely the fact that the USSR helped Europe to defeat the Nazis as well, and sacrificed approximately 50 times the number of lives that Americans did. This didn't age well for the interviewer. American exceptionalism worn as goggles while sitting in the garden of America cultivated from European cuttings pondering how to extend it to encompass the globe.
Brilliant arguments. But really no matter how good your English is, if you are not a native speaker, it is better to use a translator.
ياليت تترجم بالعربي
You can activate subtitles (CC) then after you choose automatic traduction, and finally Arab. Hello from France
Looking back at the expansion of NATO to Georgia and Ukraine was part of the same process. It's interesting that there was very little support for NATO in those countries, but still by clever manipulation of the local elites the Americans brought it about, with obvious help from their eastern European allies.
This aged terribly- I mean the bit where he says USA is scared of Europe 🤣🤣
nope. that it totally relevant. especially today. The effort the USA puts in making sure Europe remains a vasal, going as far as destroying the Nord Stream pipeline which is harming the German Economie. He is completely right.
@@azenkwedYou missed the point. I agree that USA makes an effort to keep Europe as a vassal.But it's nothing to do with that being scared, it's proven since the ddecisions after World War II, that it is to maintain a market for US gooods and to keep them as a unit for US interests militarrily, also.
You need to do research on the decisioon on both Germany and Japan's future directly post-war, because this proves my point. the initial decision, was later changed by businessman, from changing Germany into an impotent agricultural society(As punishment and avoidance off future destruction), to rebuilding its industrial capability to facilitate market for the future US globalised world to make morre money for USA.This was only becausee Germany and Japan would be the biggest markets as they have the most numerous population- This is not debatable, it is the offficial reason, in congressional debates on the topic.
* US elites knew that Europe would never be a threat - Germany was only ever a threat to thosee directly around it anyway - that's how USA became the ascenndaant military and economic power. "In the 1st place." - Geographical privilege in beinng able to stay out of a war and actually make mone FROM the war, whilst everyone else was becoming imppoverished and destroyed.
The only way for European couuntries to remain a legitimate competitor and threat to United States, individually as countries e.g. UK, Fraance and Germany, as they still were, despite having slipped marginally behind the USA in wealth and powerafter World War I, wato find a waay to avoid a repeat of that conflict, because they simply don't have the population sizes to compete . The conflict happened again, those countries Unfortunately, for them, they are geographhically next to each other and cannot avoid such a thing and the rest is history.
Europe is obviously finished in multiple ways If it doesn't find a way to work together and become a more efficient "Homogenised" group - especially the tradditional elite powers of UK, France, Germanyand Italy. Over time, tech and information becomes cheaper, more readily available and more easily transferable, so it doesn't matter how clever your population is, aas individuals, e.g. the ancestors of the UKin particular, inventing the modern world with libberal democracy and the explosion of industriinventions… eventually larger landmasses, better natural resoources and much larger populations will be able to harness that tech as well and eventually will become far more powerfful than you.
if Europe doesn't find a solutionwithin 10 years, thenBrazil, India, IndonesiaNigeria, Argentina, amongst others, will join China, as countries that achieve "at least" parity with UK, and France and thenn move aheaad of them afterwards, which will lead to their impoverishment economically and militarily
No, it didn't age terribly. Relevant people in the US were conducting similar analyses and responded accordingly.
@@azenkwed Totaly agree and would suggest to add use of the extraterritorial law on US dollar as a weapon to maintain european company as vasal too with tremendous fine.
@@lostonthetube2832 Yes, and also that.
Listen, listen, Radio Moscow is speaking!
Where did all those WOMD and anthrax packets go? Isnotreal strikes again....
Now 2024 he is in the right direction different of Fukuyama that is wrong. Eurasia is a great power region now with Russia and China. Germany tried to be free from UsA but they can’t. Now Russia is in charge with China.
Did America really help to fight Nazism!!!! Seems to have forgotten where the defeated Nazi went…… and how they were hidden and shielded……. Except for the unlucky few who got prosecuted!!!!
And do you remember "Dr" Mengele? It was never mentioned, anywhere, what happened to him after the war. I heard something, which many years ago sounded crazy, but now I can believe it. They say he got a new job in the U.S., doing terrible researches involving children. They needed somebody who had the stomach for it. Now I think it was true.
Well, the German engineers finished their work with rockets (V1&2) and the atomic bomb very comfortably and openly in the US. All Allied including the USSR benefitted from German engineering skills.
amen to that, so true.
The interviewer was very condescending .
My sense is that Rose doesn't understand the theoretical framework that historians use to think about nation states and international relations. When Todd says "America" he's referencing the Empire and it's power politics. When Rose hears "America" he thinks of the elected government. This interview took place over 20 years before terms like deep state came into parlance. Todd even points out 6:50 that specific actors may or may not really be conscious of the real trajectory of power. One has to at a minimum separate neo-liberal rhetoric from the real world implications and results of policy.
He…forget his name…is awfully defensive, not really wanting to hear about what maybe America’s motives for going war!
yeah and Emanuel catches this vibe and specifically mentions not to take it with feelings and emotion and that he is not anti-American. Russia is needed as a balancer is a 100% true, United States throwing a tantrum because it wants to be the single power, like it was during the 90 and so on, its crazy.
How was the Iraq war a success….?
Iraq was about oil
The announcer is stupid and hostile and Emmanuel Todd is great
fop
The perfect depiction of two really ignorant people talking nonsense
The perfect comment of an ignorant person
Great human !!❤
Valuable analysis by a very perceptive thinker, though the topics aren't the most current ones, things are changing.
But read the book by Emmanuel Todd "The defeat of the West" (2024) -- if you can read it at all (it's in French so I can't & the "English" version I have is a google translation, pretty horrible. For all the money they pay their AI team there should be a better LLM for French-to-English translation; reading this great book is like trying to understand some recent immigrant butchering the language. I enjoy the weird experience though, it's like deliberately switching off the gps guidance in your car, makes you think more :-) . Where to find the book, not yet officially translated to English? libgen. If you don't know what it is, you're unfortunate - find out a.s.a.p.