Monte-Carlo Simulation in the Energy Industry

Recorded session from Quantrix Dimension 2022 Conference:
Gilbert Hangartner, Brainwork Consulting / ALPIQ
Themes: Uncertainty / Scenarios / Monte-Carlo Simulation
Brainwork has used Quantrix to provide agile modelling and simulation services to ALPIQ, a European Electricity production and trading company. The future has always been unpredictable, but with Covid, Climate Change and the Russian war, demand and prices for energy have never been more volatile, which has heavily impacted business forecasts in the energy market. In this presentation we will share how we have used Quantrix to build risk, uncertainty and scenario thinking into a corporate financial model. All uncertain inputs to the P&L, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow were modelled as risk distributions. Using Monte-Carlo simulation, thousands of recalculations are done to provide output distributions of all KPIs transformed with descriptive statistics into a management-friendly presentation in Quantrix to support decision processes.
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