Just a reminder for those interested in My Research Platform - the yearly price is going up by the end of the year, so you can lock in the current price forever if you are interested: sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com/p/stock-market-research-platform
REIT rents are often cpi-index adjusted, they actually make good profits with slow, climbing interest rates, because the financing "was done in the past" when interest rates were lower, and important that they have diversified financing, with different bond expiration dates, or bank loans with fixed rates.
The best way to describe the present economy is 08' 2.0. Yes stocks are at a discount and things will eventually get better but my monthly living expense is up $3750 from $1600 and I'm left wondering what retirement have in store for me 5years down the line, I'm ill-prepared tbh, my 401k gains are zero-nothing and my stock portfolio?...OH WELL!
My God man, With one video you have expressed everything that was in my mind about all the bullet points. When you said be happy with the returns even if it’s 1% that hit home. Thank you for making this video
As Mark Twain famously said that he was amazed at how much smarter his father became between the time when Mark was a teenager and the time when Mark became an adult, so am I amazed at how much smarter you've gotten over the past few years. It is only thanks to you that I didn't actually have overall losses during the time that I've been investing. I just wish I had made this amazing mental realization when I first saw your channel 3 years ago. Thank you.
Listening to the language of Dalio and yourself Sven . The observation of financial assets v productive assets is really highlighting the gap between what is now speculation and true productive environments . The time is coming where those that have been pushed up by speculation and not PRODUCING and real profits will re balance soon . Once this occurs flows will head back to the more stable older industries that service basic human needs . Even housing due to high debt positions and those that rent them out are for income could be once called productive assets have converted to financial assets because all the rental income is going towards servicing debt and not creating income surpluses .
Thanks! I mostly share your vision on everything, but I lack the financial expertise (am in computer science) and sometimes am uncertain what and where to invest my money. Your video's help tremendously!
Grazie druze sven, come al solito ottima lezione. La sintesi per il 2022 è praticamente sempre quella:camminare sempre con tutte e due le mani dietro il dupe e no te sbagli mai... Grazie per il servizio
People own bonds because they tend to behave well (like 9 tenths of the time) when the equity market crashes. For some people this is not about getting to destination faster, it is about having also a comfortable ride and not have to cry blood when you experience severe turbulences on the way, which is understandable. As individual long term investment, bonds don’t look great. As an insurance (where you actually get paid the premium instead of paying for it), it is one of the best in the financial markets. This still applies to current conditions
Awesome video Sven!! revisiting it after one month again! Amen to your take on bonds - I ditched bonds mid last year! ALso commodity, energy & REIT stocks have been doing great for me after listening to you and Lyn Alden who i also follow on her website and helping me hold the rest of my portfolio without getting jumpy!! Thank you for the great information you share on this channel!!
I am mimicking buffet right now. Buying value stocks with dividends and holding a larger sum of cash. When and if things enter a correction I will buy and hold. In the long term these "investments" will pay off. Value investing has been around forever and has proven it works time and time again. You just have to be disciplined enough to follow through.
Hey Sven! I haven't watched the video yet, but I hope you're not ignoring the semiconductor field. A lot of experts (Ph.D's, high positions in The industry) are now saying they don't see a return to normalcy (which I took to mean demand being met) until 2026 at the earliest. Between that, and the current interest rate situation, hardware, the companies that make it, and the companies supplying them with tools are the biggest chunk of my portfolio.
@@Value-Investing Supply and demand typically swing in the industry, so at some point there will probably be stockpiles and a big cut in profit margins. Overall though, of course I think "chips" will do well forever, and if they don't, stocks will be the last thing on our minds.
Hi Sven! First of all, wish you a great 2022. I appreciated a lot your participation in Pietros channel. Was really funny and interesting. If i could express a wish: were nice if you will speak little more about dividends and "how to use" they in a well planned strategy. Second, i would like a "geographical" analisis, where at the moment we can found "value" and where we can find just "price". Long live to Sven and value investing! Ciao
I rent out two properties. Most of the time everything runs on autopilot and no action or interference is needed. Of course sometimes there are issues when tenants leave or the dishwasher need service so owning dividend stocks is much easier. But I like the asset class diversification, plus I have full control over the properties as opposed to REITs. I do not care about any market price fluctuations of the properties and obviously with a property there is no "ticker" that updates every second giving you a real time price. I intend to keep the properties until I die and then my kids inherit them. You can do the same with stocks, of course, but most people are tempted to follow the market prices and get drawn into the game of chasing yields and beating the index or whatever. Another benefit with properties is that at least some time ago you could get good mortgage deals (with fixed interest rates) that allows for low risk leveraging.
Very nice video.. having a value driven mindset is first to me and then finding my circle of competence is second, in which arena i feel comfortable playing.. the investment world is huge.. what worked for me is a value mindset: train my brain to look for real and not emotional value and having the focus to look in a narrow defined circle where I can create an edge.. and if I am patient and persistent opportunities will come knocking
I have lots of shares in RIO dident sell at the top. i will keep them for the very long term. like the company and the dividends that thay have given me over all the years:)
Thanks, Sven! There's no asset class devaluing itself faster than crypto. More than 10,000 cryptos already created, and thousands more will be created every year going forward. Based on that, the overwhelming majority will end up worthless, if not all of them.
Total crypto market cap doesn’t tell that story. Many cryptos will disappear, others may get crazy returns. The total market May go to 0 or to 10 trillion, either case, they represent one of the best asymmetric bets in the history of investment and speculation
I don’t own any crypto I’d however not be as blanket statementy as you. Some crypto’s like Etherium have other uses and we have the old kid on the block Bitcoin. Those two will likely be pretty relevant for a long time going forward. You’re correct about most crypto though.
@@walogalego That doesn't make any sense. It doesn't matter how many companies are created as long as they generate earnings and possibly dividends. Companies (if you buy the right ones) are productive assets. Crypto is like gold, it doesn't produce anything. And the fact that so many are being created means that the overwhelming majority if not all will be worthless as a store if value.
Sven you’re definitely not an idiot on crypto . I would encourage you to read however the research and writings over at Horizon Kinetics on the crypto. They are dyed in the wool value guys but make a compelling case.
Hi Sven, I don't know if this is already included in your research, but it might be interesting to go over some emerging markets, such as Indonesia, Vietnam or India. These are countries that probably will grow similarly as China did in the last 10 years. Gelukkig nieuwjaar alvast, bedankt voor alle wijsheden afgelopen jaar. Je hebt mij zo veel geleerd, ik ben je eeuwig dankbaar!
Excellent video. There is no alternative to the stock market these days… so we all pile in. When alternatives materialise there will be a horrible sell off.
Hi Sven, Shiller has replaced his cape ratio with the excess CAPE, which actually takes into account also interest rates, which actually is more hollistic approach
@@Value-Investing Not the first time someone says it to justify paying more because this time it is different. There is always a habits in the ways in which make stocks look cheap. It is the manipulation of data.
Great video Sven! I am renting out 2 small houses in the Netherlands but I am worried about the extreme regulation by the government. Currently yield is okay, but regulation will cause additional taxes and due to renters-protection not possible to evict tenants (even when yield is negative). I am now regretting my decision to start as (social) landlord and asking low rents.. Would love to see a video with your take on regulation / taxes.
@@Value-Investing Regulations prevented me from raising rents at all. Nevertheless currently it is still a reasonable yield. My tenants are very pleased so I doubt they will ever leave. This might be a curse disguised as blessing :) Changing regulations can cause tremendous problems and you mentioned being interested in real estate in the Netherlands, so keep that in mind. My advise for new landlords in the Netherlands: never rent a property out for an undetermined period.
Thank you very much for this great video - as always!! Particularly, your opinion about the "alternatives" I can share out of my own experience (e.g. iranian carpets). However, with all the other options: in my view, diversification is often an illusion if it is done by intention. The reason: the valuations of the different options often highly correlate and even within one asset class there is often correlation. I would highly appreciate - if not done by you, yet - a video on this issue (e.g. dollar vs. gold, stocks vs. real estate, utilities vs. tech). In contrast, if diversification is the result of buying assets only when they are cheap, then diversification is the result of an investment strategy and not the primary goal. The latter makes sense in my view.
Sven on crypto: “Thanks for the comments saying I’m an idiot.. those are the comments I love the most.” 😂 That made me laugh so hard. I appreciate your sense of humor Sven!
I love this conservative outlook for stocks and it actually motivates me a bit. I’m quite sure the returns will be higher mid term than projected. But like I said multiple times … talking about the different regions / markets makes a ETF allocation video helpful for your community.
Quite honestly with you..about crypto i should say that is more easy to understand the technology behind them rather than "traditional financial system"... great video btw.
You are amazing, thanks so much for all the advice, i don't think there is any other youtuber capable of condensing so much information such little amount of time. Thanks for your work, love it.
Hi Sven, while I agree with you buying real value business. Longer term Bonds offer something you don't know much about, and that's it negative correlation with the stock market. That means if you expect a stock market crash, go all in long term bonds and sell on after crash when the bonds are up 20-30%.
yes those do, but think of the value destruction over time to your portfolio if you hold bonds all the time to get the feeling of protection in a crash - it is not cost effective!
Hi Sven, thanks for all your contents, i always can't wait for your next video! I would like to understand what you mean with "i will make a lot of money when you trade those etf as a market maker", talking about crypto ETFs. So how can you be a market maker?
Excellent video. Always amazes me that this is not the mainstream way of thinking about investing. I blame the school system for the huge knowledge gap 🙂
The wisest thing that should be on everyone mind currently should be to invest in different streams of income that doesn't depend on the govt. Especially with the current economic crisis around the world. This is still a good time to invest in Gold, silver and digital currencies(BTC, ETH..).
Thanks Sven my opinion is it’s all about China bigger picture. In Australia most of our GDP is from mining related companies. BHP , Rio -Tinto , Fortescue metals and coal !? Ect so It’s all in the ground . 20 million population! This blog just about says it all for about investing your style 👍🇦🇺
Sometimes when you are an expert, it's hard to learn new things. You should make an honest effort to learn about crypto. It is, like you said, a new asset class and it is worth your time
Imo commoditis + precious metals are the places to be. Extremely undervalued (especially gold/silver miners) =) but maybe I'm biased because I bought a lot of those =))
Great video as always! "Why would people invest in Bonds?" Well, let me tell you something about taxation and investment in Romania: they tax 25% for social assistance (mainly pension), another 10% health and another 10% as tax income. Of that 25% almost all goes to pay the pensions of TODAY retirees; only a small percent (3.75%) is going to your future pension and of course is mainly invested in bonds. :) And of course you can invest in "optional pension funds" which, of course are "safe" (70% in bonds) and "aggresive" (50-50 bonds vs stocks). Pretty safe for a future retiree from Romania, isn't it? :)
I think high yield short duration corporate bonds will perform better than other types of bonds and stocks during hiking interest rate period in 2022 and 2023.
Sven can you clarify what you're talking about at 17:30? Your reference to having "picks and shovels" infers that you have some kind of investment in a crypto-related stock. What exactly were you talking about? How are you going to profit from any crypto boom? It was a bit unclear. Thanks!
Buffet on "the more you know the less diversification you need". That sunk in years ago when I used to try and juggle 30-50 stocks for the sake of diversification. I've chopped it down to always less than 20 I follow, any half that I own. One always being Berkshire, because I want diversification within his knowledge base of chewing gum, soft drinks, insurance, banking, railroads, building supplies...... That leaves me time to focus more on long and short-term home runs within my knowledge base, not chewing gum.
Thanks a lot for the great video, Sven. Would you make a video as to how to invest under inflation? Which sectors might be affected the most, and which ones investors can consider, like banks or something. In my opinion, your portfolio will be safe and I am happy that I have finalized mine based on that but curious to know if you have any new comments or advice.
Thanks for another great video Sven. Might I suggest one addition, crypto miners. As they are like gold, but in an emerging market. So finding value there sounds like another option depending on their buisiness model as the crypto is most likely here to stay. What do you think?
Great video sven! I bought little residential properties in Scotland over the last 15 years buying with my savings over the years, it's turned out well, l have 10 buy to let properties with an overall 9% rent yeald, and likely the properties doubling in value approximately every 15 years, however I stopped buying three years ago and pivated to buying shares in companies because like Mr Buffet sais "you have to become a caretaker or janitor for the tenants and properties " , better to pick undervalued companies in the market's and like Mr Munger sais " sit on your ass and make money " , here's hoping l am picking the right companies at fair prices! You and one or two others l follow have been a great help to me in doing that so far and thank you once again for great guidance here, happy new year. 👍
Love your channel Sven. Do you mean that you don´t see Rio Tinto as a buy for 10 years, only as something to trade between cyclical swings? Is it just speculation to say we will go through a comedity bullcycel with in these 10 years due to were we are in time?
Great video Dr. Carlin. You should take a look at Lakeland Industries which is a PPE manufacturer. No debt, and 100m in cash and inventory at a 160m market cap. My conservative projections show a 38% annualized return for the next 5 years with a 8% growth rate and no multiple expansion. I feel like it is such a good deal that I must be missing something. Thanks again for all your work!
About REITs, I bought SPG in the $50s last year and from now on I'm going to be paid > 10% div yield on my initial investment every year. They do keep their real estate for very long time and David Simon is one of the best CEOs I know. It's fairly valued now but I'm not selling, just collecting those dividends :)
Thanks you Sven for another year of great work and insightful content (as well as great information on your research platform;)! Have a wonderful new year - and hopefully a less crazy one as I would wish to all mankind.
Dr. Carlin can you compare FSTA & FTXG Both Consumer Staples please. I was going to ask about VHT & VGHCX, but you answered my question about US stocks vs global/ EM. thank you
Another great video. Not sure how often you look at companies recommended in comments, but... I am a fan of a miner, in what feels like an emerging market (lol), that I think is a long term value play as they expand and diversify. Would love your perspective as a professional. SBSW
@@honeredchimp4814 thanks for the heads up. I assume you mean historically, over the long term? I know they've made numerous acquisitions over the years (the reason for issuance?), but in recent years they've been throwing a lot of cash at debt, DIV, and earlier this year was a significant buyback. CEO constantly reiterates that shareholders are very important.
So stocks are relatively cheap compared to the bond bubble and even cheaper compared to the crypto bubble. That seems a crazy way to value assets. Which assets offer intrinsic value over the next 20 years? Is it small cap value, large cap value, or blended stocks in emerging markets?
CLO Equity tranches seem very good atm. Especially stuff that stays above CCC. It's floating rate paper so relatively immune to interest rates and gives 6-10%. Only potential issue could be credit quality issues materialising but I'd bet it wouldn't get that bad over the medium term
interested in why you chose munger's take on crypto (him and warren haven't had a great record in technology and they don't invest in it as they don't understand it ). While Ray Dalio an equally reputable and sophisticated investor says that bitcoin deserves a spot in your portfolio (2% is his last weighting I saw him mention). Notice he said bitcoin specifically as like you said all these other assets are speculative at best and outright scams at worst, and while some show great promise and might one day flip bitcoin, it is way too early to say which will do so and given that most of them will completely die it's better to not dabble in them unless you do extensive research and know they are short term plays.
Dalio is a not even close to Buffett or Munger ?!?!?!?!?! Too much noise there, you can't distinguish the fundamentals. Dalio is not an investor, he is a player!
I actually think that gold and silver miners are the best value sector outthere at the moment. Share buybacks, very low EV/EBITDA, rising dividends etc. All on a background of extreme monetary policy that has put the wind in the sails of precious metals
Just a reminder for those interested in My Research Platform - the yearly price is going up by the end of the year, so you can lock in the current price forever if you are interested: sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com/p/stock-market-research-platform
REIT rents are often cpi-index adjusted, they actually make good profits with slow, climbing interest rates, because the financing "was done in the past" when interest rates were lower, and important that they have diversified financing, with different bond expiration dates, or bank loans with fixed rates.
what will be the new price, Doctor Carlin?
@@-Blick182- just a bit higher this time, in line with inflation..
The best way to describe the present economy is 08' 2.0. Yes stocks are at a discount and things will eventually get better but my monthly living expense is up $3750 from $1600 and I'm left wondering what retirement have in store for me 5years down the line, I'm ill-prepared tbh, my 401k gains are zero-nothing and my stock portfolio?...OH WELL!
My God man,
With one video you have expressed everything that was in my mind about all the bullet points.
When you said be happy with the returns even if it’s 1% that hit home.
Thank you for making this video
thanks, nice to hear that!
As Mark Twain famously said that he was amazed at how much smarter his father became between the time when Mark was a teenager and the time when Mark became an adult, so am I amazed at how much smarter you've gotten over the past few years. It is only thanks to you that I didn't actually have overall losses during the time that I've been investing. I just wish I had made this amazing mental realization when I first saw your channel 3 years ago. Thank you.
thanks, that is great to hear!
Listening to the language of Dalio and yourself Sven . The observation of financial assets v productive assets is really highlighting the gap between what is now speculation and true productive environments . The time is coming where those that have been pushed up by speculation and not PRODUCING and real profits will re balance soon . Once this occurs flows will head back to the more stable older industries that service basic human needs . Even housing due to high debt positions and those that rent them out are for income could be once called productive assets have converted to financial assets because all the rental income is going towards servicing debt and not creating income surpluses .
it will never change, it is just that we focused on producing assets will do well, the others will not, but they will never learn!
Thanks! I mostly share your vision on everything, but I lack the financial expertise (am in computer science) and sometimes am uncertain what and where to invest my money. Your video's help tremendously!
thanks, but give it time!
Grazie druze sven, come al solito ottima lezione. La sintesi per il 2022 è praticamente sempre quella:camminare sempre con tutte e due le mani dietro il dupe e no te sbagli mai... Grazie per il servizio
hahahaha
Recently found your channel. I have found much value in its diverse educating.
Welcome aboard!
I have finished the whole video, it is easy to digest. And thank yoj for your sharing and advice!
thanks!
People own bonds because they tend to behave well (like 9 tenths of the time) when the equity market crashes. For some people this is not about getting to destination faster, it is about having also a comfortable ride and not have to cry blood when you experience severe turbulences on the way, which is understandable.
As individual long term investment, bonds don’t look great. As an insurance (where you actually get paid the premium instead of paying for it), it is one of the best in the financial markets. This still applies to current conditions
depends on how you look at things :-)
Awesome video Sven!! revisiting it after one month again! Amen to your take on bonds - I ditched bonds mid last year! ALso commodity, energy & REIT stocks have been doing great for me after listening to you and Lyn Alden who i also follow on her website and helping me hold the rest of my portfolio without getting jumpy!! Thank you for the great information you share on this channel!!
happy to hear that!
Thank you Sven for constantly reminding me to think about value. It is so easy to get carried away by fomo. Keep calm and way for real value.
Happy to do that!
Thank you for this interesting and valuable video!
happy to hear that!
I shorted government bonds and it worked really really well for me
great to hear!
Great analysis and esthetically pleasing!
Excellent time stamps. Please keep up with these!
Thanks, will do!
I am mimicking buffet right now. Buying value stocks with dividends and holding a larger sum of cash. When and if things enter a correction I will buy and hold. In the long term these "investments" will pay off. Value investing has been around forever and has proven it works time and time again. You just have to be disciplined enough to follow through.
absolutely!
What would you do if there is stagnation but no correction? Do you wait until there is 20% correction or how do you decide when to deploy your cash
i wouldnt be holding large somes of cash in this enviornment
@@ang5035 I buy something when it is an obvious screaming deal. If it's not I wait. Simple.
@@windythecatt And if the market corrects how will you buy the dip?
One of my favourites of your videos this year. Thanks for posting Sven!
nice to hear that!
Hey Sven! I haven't watched the video yet, but I hope you're not ignoring the semiconductor field. A lot of experts (Ph.D's, high positions in The industry) are now saying they don't see a return to normalcy (which I took to mean demand being met) until 2026 at the earliest. Between that, and the current interest rate situation, hardware, the companies that make it, and the companies supplying them with tools are the biggest chunk of my portfolio.
ok, by 2026, and then??? Why not focusing on a business that will forever do well :-) Simple difference, but huge for investing!
@@Value-Investing Supply and demand typically swing in the industry, so at some point there will probably be stockpiles and a big cut in profit margins. Overall though, of course I think "chips" will do well forever, and if they don't, stocks will be the last thing on our minds.
Sven, I have to be honest, I really liked the analysis on crypto
:-)
Agree. He is not motivated by the greediness and stupidity we are observing atm. Educated mister!!!
Bitcoin is not crypto learn for yourself u won’t regret putting in time to learn.
Thanks for sprinkling these videos with your Dutch humor. This not an asset, but an ass-et. Genius.
:-)))))
Hi Sven! First of all, wish you a great 2022. I appreciated a lot your participation in Pietros channel. Was really funny and interesting. If i could express a wish: were nice if you will speak little more about dividends and "how to use" they in a well planned strategy. Second, i would like a "geographical" analisis, where at the moment we can found "value" and where we can find just "price". Long live to Sven and value investing! Ciao
thanks and thanks for suggesting :-)
I rent out two properties. Most of the time everything runs on autopilot and no action or interference is needed. Of course sometimes there are issues when tenants leave or the dishwasher need service so owning dividend stocks is much easier. But I like the asset class diversification, plus I have full control over the properties as opposed to REITs. I do not care about any market price fluctuations of the properties and obviously with a property there is no "ticker" that updates every second giving you a real time price. I intend to keep the properties until I die and then my kids inherit them. You can do the same with stocks, of course, but most people are tempted to follow the market prices and get drawn into the game of chasing yields and beating the index or whatever. Another benefit with properties is that at least some time ago you could get good mortgage deals (with fixed interest rates) that allows for low risk leveraging.
for 10k a year, I can paint a room :-)))
You’re going to get wiped out when the currency collapses
Very good video and wise video! I liked a lot the part of the Crypto where you give a real perspective to the situation!!
thanks!
Thanks Sven! Happy holidays!
Happy holidays!
I may have to share this with my Aunt at her New Years party.
thanks!
Very informative! Thank you!
Glad it was helpful!
Very nice video.. having a value driven mindset is first to me and then finding my circle of competence is second, in which arena i feel comfortable playing.. the investment world is huge.. what worked for me is a value mindset: train my brain to look for real and not emotional value and having the focus to look in a narrow defined circle where I can create an edge.. and if I am patient and persistent opportunities will come knocking
thanks!
Thank you for this sudden increase in video releases 🙏💪👌
:-) Not for long:-)
@@Value-Investing Ok, I'll see it as a Xmas gift then😉
I have lots of shares in RIO dident sell at the top. i will keep them for the very long term. like the company and the dividends that thay have given me over all the years:)
thanks for sharing!
One of the most informative videos of the year and super funny in the same time. Sven' eyes when he is talking about the government made my day. 10:52
thanks!
Thank you so much for your work Sven.
Thanks!
Thanks! Merry Christmas.
Merry Christmas!
Thanks, Sven! There's no asset class devaluing itself faster than crypto. More than 10,000 cryptos already created, and thousands more will be created every year going forward. Based on that, the overwhelming majority will end up worthless, if not all of them.
:-)))
Total crypto market cap doesn’t tell that story. Many cryptos will disappear, others may get crazy returns. The total market May go to 0 or to 10 trillion, either case, they represent one of the best asymmetric bets in the history of investment and speculation
By the way, how many companies are created each year and how many disappear on a 30y horizon. 99.5% of them?
I don’t own any crypto I’d however not be as blanket statementy as you. Some crypto’s like Etherium have other uses and we have the old kid on the block Bitcoin. Those two will likely be pretty relevant for a long time going forward. You’re correct about most crypto though.
@@walogalego That doesn't make any sense. It doesn't matter how many companies are created as long as they generate earnings and possibly dividends. Companies (if you buy the right ones) are productive assets. Crypto is like gold, it doesn't produce anything. And the fact that so many are being created means that the overwhelming majority if not all will be worthless as a store if value.
Another Christmas present from Sven. 🙏🏻
happy to hear that!
Lot's of value in this value in this video. As investor, we really have to be patient in these "interesting time".
Thanks!
Thanks for the New Years gift Sven!
Good overview
thanks!
Sven you’re definitely not an idiot on crypto . I would encourage you to read however the research and writings over at Horizon Kinetics on the crypto. They are dyed in the wool value guys but make a compelling case.
thanks for suggesting! But i think it is better for me to just do what I do! Crypto would remove my focus!
Hi Sven, I don't know if this is already included in your research, but it might be interesting to go over some emerging markets, such as Indonesia, Vietnam or India. These are countries that probably will grow similarly as China did in the last 10 years.
Gelukkig nieuwjaar alvast, bedankt voor alle wijsheden afgelopen jaar. Je hebt mij zo veel geleerd, ik ben je eeuwig dankbaar!
too complex to invest there, I dont' need to cover everything.
Excellent video.
There is no alternative to the stock market these days… so we all pile in. When alternatives materialise there will be a horrible sell off.
of course
Hi Sven, Shiller has replaced his cape ratio with the excess CAPE, which actually takes into account also interest rates, which actually is more hollistic approach
assuming interest rates stay always the same :-)))
@@Value-Investing Not the first time someone says it to justify paying more because this time it is different. There is always a habits in the ways in which make stocks look cheap. It is the manipulation of data.
Thank you for your great content.
My pleasure!
Ty Sven for plenty of great content, all the best for Christmas and New Year. Hvala Vam.
Hvala!
Great video Sven! I am renting out 2 small houses in the Netherlands but I am worried about the extreme regulation by the government.
Currently yield is okay, but regulation will cause additional taxes and due to renters-protection not possible to evict tenants (even when yield is negative). I am now regretting my decision to start as (social) landlord and asking low rents..
Would love to see a video with your take on regulation / taxes.
Not a specialist there, so I don't know :-( But you maybe will not be able to increase rents much, but still if your deal is ok, you should be ok!
@@Value-Investing Regulations prevented me from raising rents at all. Nevertheless currently it is still a reasonable yield. My tenants are very pleased so I doubt they will ever leave. This might be a curse disguised as blessing :)
Changing regulations can cause tremendous problems and you mentioned being interested in real estate in the Netherlands, so keep that in mind. My advise for new landlords in the Netherlands: never rent a property out for an undetermined period.
You’re going to lose everything
Thank you very much for this great video - as always!! Particularly, your opinion about the "alternatives" I can share out of my own experience (e.g. iranian carpets). However, with all the other options: in my view, diversification is often an illusion if it is done by intention. The reason: the valuations of the different options often highly correlate and even within one asset class there is often correlation. I would highly appreciate - if not done by you, yet - a video on this issue (e.g. dollar vs. gold, stocks vs. real estate, utilities vs. tech). In contrast, if diversification is the result of buying assets only when they are cheap, then diversification is the result of an investment strategy and not the primary goal. The latter makes sense in my view.
good points, I will discuss diversification a bit more in the future...
Great content as usual Sven!!! I enjoy your overview.
thanks!
Sven on crypto: “Thanks for the comments saying I’m an idiot.. those are the comments I love the most.” 😂 That made me laugh so hard. I appreciate your sense of humor Sven!
:-))))
I love this conservative outlook for stocks and it actually motivates me a bit.
I’m quite sure the returns will be higher mid term than projected.
But like I said multiple times … talking about the different regions / markets makes a ETF allocation video helpful for your community.
real or nominal :-))
Thanks
Thank you!
Thank you for the video Sven!
Thanks!
Quite honestly with you..about crypto i should say that is more easy to understand the technology behind them rather than "traditional financial system"... great video btw.
if you say so!
You are amazing, thanks so much for all the advice, i don't think there is any other youtuber capable of condensing so much information such little amount of time. Thanks for your work, love it.
thanks!
Hi Sven, while I agree with you buying real value business. Longer term Bonds offer something you don't know much about, and that's it negative correlation with the stock market. That means if you expect a stock market crash, go all in long term bonds and sell on after crash when the bonds are up 20-30%.
yes those do, but think of the value destruction over time to your portfolio if you hold bonds all the time to get the feeling of protection in a crash - it is not cost effective!
Those crypto marketcaps are an illusion. Sometimes the real marketcap is 100x less. Tulips all over again.
thanks for sharing!
Great video as usual! Thanks for all the great job you put in all the work!
thanks!
Sven, you Rock! As always...
Thank you! Wish you and your family a happy new year with huge returns🎆
All the best! Thanks!
Hi Sven, thanks for all your contents, i always can't wait for your next video!
I would like to understand what you mean with "i will make a lot of money when you trade those etf as a market maker", talking about crypto ETFs. So how can you be a market maker?
I am long a business that trades those, so more trading, mo money.
„Welcome to a crazy world“ sums it up pretty well, I would say. 😄
it always is it always will be, nothing new, people are people!
Amazing vídeo! Thanks!!!
thanks!
i am always eager to check out your latest videos. Its so very much educational.
thanks!
Excellent video. Always amazes me that this is not the mainstream way of thinking about investing. I blame the school system for the huge knowledge gap 🙂
Well said!
The wisest thing that should be on everyone mind currently should be to invest in different streams of income that doesn't depend on the govt. Especially with the current economic crisis around the world. This is still a good time to invest in Gold, silver and digital currencies(BTC, ETH..).
Investing in crypto now should be in every wise individuals list, in some months time you'll be ecstatic with the decision you made today
I traded with him. The profit are secured and over a 100% return on investment directly sent to your wallet.
Really great video! Thanks as always!
Thanks!
Thanks Sven my opinion is it’s all about China bigger picture. In Australia most of our GDP is from mining related companies. BHP , Rio -Tinto , Fortescue metals and coal !? Ect so It’s all in the ground . 20 million population! This blog just about says it all for about investing your style 👍🇦🇺
THanks!
Sometimes when you are an expert, it's hard to learn new things. You should make an honest effort to learn about crypto. It is, like you said, a new asset class and it is worth your time
I did put an effort :-) You should put an effort about learning about risk, reward, speculation and noise!
Thanks Sven for great video! My preferred is value businesses which are diversified over time (happens by its self over the years)
that is how it works!
another way to put it, in the short term the market is a liquidity game, in the long run its an earnings game.
yes!!!
Imo commoditis + precious metals are the places to be. Extremely undervalued (especially gold/silver miners) =) but maybe I'm biased because I bought a lot of those =))
IMO, that was the place to be :-) but you never know.
Great video as always! "Why would people invest in Bonds?" Well, let me tell you something about taxation and investment in Romania: they tax 25% for social assistance (mainly pension), another 10% health and another 10% as tax income. Of that 25% almost all goes to pay the pensions of TODAY retirees; only a small percent (3.75%) is going to your future pension and of course is mainly invested in bonds. :) And of course you can invest in "optional pension funds" which, of course are "safe" (70% in bonds) and "aggresive" (50-50 bonds vs stocks). Pretty safe for a future retiree from Romania, isn't it? :)
100% guarantee :-)))
Trist!
Physical gold and silver are better
I think high yield short duration corporate bonds will perform better than other types of bonds and stocks during hiking interest rate period in 2022 and 2023.
to me that is irrelevant
Sven can you clarify what you're talking about at 17:30? Your reference to having "picks and shovels" infers that you have some kind of investment in a crypto-related stock. What exactly were you talking about? How are you going to profit from any crypto boom? It was a bit unclear. Thanks!
:-) too complex
@@Value-Investing just found where you got this. Guy Spere at 1:19:30 ua-cam.com/video/Yj99ea3dRq8/v-deo.html
Thank you Sven
thanks!
Thanks Sven!!
My pleasure!
Buffet on "the more you know the less diversification you need". That sunk in years ago when I used to try and juggle 30-50 stocks for the sake of diversification. I've chopped it down to always less than 20 I follow, any half that I own. One always being Berkshire, because I want diversification within his knowledge base of chewing gum, soft drinks, insurance, banking, railroads, building supplies...... That leaves me time to focus more on long and short-term home runs within my knowledge base, not chewing gum.
that is how it is done!
A plenty of valuable ideas!!! Thanks Sven
thanks!
Cash (USD and Euro), physical silver, physical gold, high quality dividend stocks, non USD denominated stocks. In that order.
that is also risky
Thanks a lot for the great video, Sven. Would you make a video as to how to invest under inflation? Which sectors might be affected the most, and which ones investors can consider, like banks or something. In my opinion, your portfolio will be safe and I am happy that I have finalized mine based on that but curious to know if you have any new comments or advice.
my answer is always the same:-) Invest in good businesses, whether there is inflation or not, you can't predict taht!
Thanks for another great video Sven. Might I suggest one addition, crypto miners. As they are like gold, but in an emerging market. So finding value there sounds like another option depending on their buisiness model as the crypto is most likely here to stay. What do you think?
not really my cup of tea, or better to say mining knowledge :-))
On gold miners, I have a 2% portfolio share in a Canada-based company developing mines in S Africa - Galane. Seems like the real deal to me.
thanks for sharing!
Great video sven! I bought little residential properties in Scotland over the last 15 years buying with my savings over the years, it's turned out well, l have 10 buy to let properties with an overall 9% rent yeald, and likely the properties doubling in value approximately every 15 years, however I stopped buying three years ago and pivated to buying shares in companies because like Mr Buffet sais "you have to become a caretaker or janitor for the tenants and properties " , better to pick undervalued companies in the market's and like Mr Munger sais " sit on your ass and make money " , here's hoping l am picking the right companies at fair prices! You and one or two others l follow have been a great help to me in doing that so far and thank you once again for great guidance here, happy new year. 👍
happy new year!
Great value! Thanks and Happy Holdidays.
Happy Holidays!
Love your channel Sven. Do you mean that you don´t see Rio Tinto as a buy for 10 years, only as something to trade between cyclical swings? Is it just speculation to say we will go through a comedity bullcycel with in these 10 years due to were we are in time?
crypto is not even a collectible, it's a scam. Great content as always
thanks for sharing!
I see your interview with Pietro Michelangeli...parli benissimo in italiano!!!
sicuro:-) sono meta italiano:-)
Thanks for the video!
thank you!
Hey Sven how concentrated are you in Chinese equities ie Baba? I’m a brand new investor so am still learning
won't share that here, I can just tell that I am doing great :-)
Thanks and Happy New Year
happy new year!
Great video Dr. Carlin. You should take a look at Lakeland Industries which is a PPE manufacturer. No debt, and 100m in cash and inventory at a 160m market cap. My conservative projections show a 38% annualized return for the next 5 years with a 8% growth rate and no multiple expansion. I feel like it is such a good deal that I must be missing something. Thanks again for all your work!
thanks for sharing!
About REITs, I bought SPG in the $50s last year and from now on I'm going to be paid > 10% div yield on my initial investment every year. They do keep their real estate for very long time and David Simon is one of the best CEOs I know. It's fairly valued now but I'm not selling, just collecting those dividends :)
thanks for sharing
Cool story bro
@@crohmer Cash is even cooler ;)
Thank you Sven, I like your view!!
thanks!
Hristos se rodi Sven!
:-)
Thanks you Sven for another year of great work and insightful content (as well as great information on your research platform;)!
Have a wonderful new year - and hopefully a less crazy one as I would wish to all mankind.
best 2022!
Sven, Americans can buy 10k of I bonds, currently at 7.12% interest rate. Could be worse!
???
@@Value-Investing and thank you for the great content per usual. I get a lot from your channel
I just finished lunch while watching uninteresting videos, and now that i have Just finished your new video pops up...it's gonna be a long espresso
enjoy!
Dr. Carlin can you compare FSTA & FTXG
Both Consumer Staples please.
I was going to ask about VHT & VGHCX, but you answered my question about US stocks vs global/ EM. thank you
:-)
Great video Sven, thanks!
Thanks!
Another great video. Not sure how often you look at companies recommended in comments, but... I am a fan of a miner, in what feels like an emerging market (lol), that I think is a long term value play as they expand and diversify. Would love your perspective as a professional. SBSW
thanks for suggesting!
@@honeredchimp4814 thanks for the heads up. I assume you mean historically, over the long term? I know they've made numerous acquisitions over the years (the reason for issuance?), but in recent years they've been throwing a lot of cash at debt, DIV, and earlier this year was a significant buyback. CEO constantly reiterates that shareholders are very important.
So stocks are relatively cheap compared to the bond bubble and even cheaper compared to the crypto bubble. That seems a crazy way to value assets.
Which assets offer intrinsic value over the next 20 years? Is it small cap value, large cap value, or blended stocks in emerging markets?
for that you can't look at asset classes, for value you need to look bottom up and find gems in the sea
CLO Equity tranches seem very good atm. Especially stuff that stays above CCC. It's floating rate paper so relatively immune to interest rates and gives 6-10%. Only potential issue could be credit quality issues materialising but I'd bet it wouldn't get that bad over the medium term
as you mention it, too much betting!
interested in why you chose munger's take on crypto (him and warren haven't had a great record in technology and they don't invest in it as they don't understand it ). While Ray Dalio an equally reputable and sophisticated investor says that bitcoin deserves a spot in your portfolio (2% is his last weighting I saw him mention). Notice he said bitcoin specifically as like you said all these other assets are speculative at best and outright scams at worst, and while some show great promise and might one day flip bitcoin, it is way too early to say which will do so and given that most of them will completely die it's better to not dabble in them unless you do extensive research and know they are short term plays.
Dalio is a not even close to Buffett or Munger ?!?!?!?!?! Too much noise there, you can't distinguish the fundamentals. Dalio is not an investor, he is a player!
I actually think that gold and silver miners are the best value sector outthere at the moment. Share buybacks, very low EV/EBITDA, rising dividends etc. All on a background of extreme monetary policy that has put the wind in the sails of precious metals
thanks for sharing!