The Car Market is NOT Crashing - Reacting to Doug DeMuro and JayEmm on Cars
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- Опубліковано 17 лис 2023
- Two popular youtubers released a video about the current state of the car market. But I don’t think that the data supports their conclusions for the US market.
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Based the data, I cannot agree to overall conclusions that are made in Doug’s and Jayemoncars’s video and I presented to you the reasons for it. Car prices have been falling since the beginning of 2022. During 2022 and the beginning of 2023, they indeed fell at above normal rates, but this does not apply anymore. Price trends for many models are flattening again.
Therefore, I think it is way too late to state that prices are finally falling.
Disclaimer: The Content is for educational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this video constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy or sell any cars. The information published has been obtained from or is based on sources which are believed to be accurate and complete. Although reasonable care has been taken, the completeness and the accuracy of any information published cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions may be wrong and may change at any time. You should always carry out your own independent verification of facts and data before making any purchase decision. - Авто та транспорт
Glad to see prices dropping. Making money on cars is not as cool as driving them.
I sold my 987.2 Cayman for $78000 AUD 12months ago. The same car would now sell for $58000. Cars have hit pre-covid levels. However cars that previously bottomed out pre covid (981/987) may now continue to drop even lower.
There are a lot of enthusiast cars for sale now. Probably more compared to pre covid. People are struggling. Things are starting to look messy.
Dude, you couldn’t get 58k for a 987.2 in 2019, maybe half that in good condition!!!!
@@bmahoney1568 Yep you definitely could. You just needed to be quick to snag the good ones. My first manual 987.2 I got was a 2009 model with 19,000kms in Aqua blue metallic. Paid $55,000 from EasyAuto123 Perth in April 2018. The second one I got was a 2011 Meteor Grey 987.2 Manual from EasyAuto123 Castle Hill NSW. Paid $56,000 with 40,000kms in JAN 2021. Both cars were pretty much mint.
Investors can worry and speculate. Enthusiasts could careless.
Thanks for the Videos.
I snagged a great price
On my first Porsche, a Boxter S and I'm planning to enjoy and care the heck out of it. 🏁🏎🏁
It's actually could NOT care less, but otherwise great comment!
Great video! Read my mind. After seeing both of their videos, I wasn't going to be convinced until I saw your impression. Thank you!
Well done. A great example of data supporting content.
Thanks for accurate information. I drive a 718. I wonder what effect the change to electric next year will have on my 718 as the new body style looks less Porsche.
Just watched both of these a few days ago. Cool stuff
Great video - thanks so much for the substantive info!
Well researched and always accurate. Well said!
Excellent video again, the numbers don't lie. Anyone with a brain can see that.
Some UA-camrs seem to like beating the drums for the drama of high appreciation, or depreciation, which makes for popular videos... Good Luck!
Great as always, Harlan. I would be interested in your take on Doug’s theory of a “market cap” for each model based on the value and number in existence. I think it is a very intriguing way to look at the older, more collectible cars.
Thanks for the suggestion, I missed his video on the 'market cap' theory.
Regards Harald :)
I like his idea. It makes a ton of sense and w a few exceptions ( don't know them but they must exist) he right
Very much look forward to analysis and reviews of the Uk car market 👌🏼👍🏼
Thank you to remain still on fundamental datas. Opinions and interpretations inside math evaluations are well balanced in relations to data models.
Been watching a lot of your videos lately as I'm planning to buy a car, would you say it is a good time to get into a Taycan right now as prices went down significantly and dealers offering year end deals, or would you predict the Taycan to have further to fall as we go into 2024 and taycan facelift?
More on this upcoming saturday.
Awesome analysis. Thank you.
love to see something on the huracan... why does the lambo do such strange things on pricing? it seems to hold mostly steady BUT it was doing so even at the beginning of this year i believe.. in fact a used model somewhere around 2018 MY still fetches around 180 at least... bizarre.
Huracans are relatively steady indeed. I am not sure when i will release a new market update for them as the interest in those seems quite low and there are no big movements.
I'd love to see an analysis combining three factors: regular depreciation, covid bump, recent inflation bump. Thus providing "New Depreciation Curves" for...2015 to 2022 New Cars. What _should_ the depreciated price of a 2020 Carrera S be...today and in 3 years?
We should always talk about our feelings though. Great vid
The car market is just like the art market. Those who consistently do well are in in for the long term, and i don’t mean a couple of months. The problem with youtubers is that they need content for their channels so they are always changing cars. I have come across youtubers who will buy a car and within six months make a series of videos explaining why it has to go. This is not the behavior of a car enthusiast, that's the behavior of someone who rents a car at the airport.
Real
Closer to a time to buy than a time to sell imo
Many models are down tremendously already
But mainstream influencers wouldn’t believe
What models are down?? In UK car prices are still 20% up on covid prices. Wer u based? Romainia 😂
@@richardamos8903 News flash everything is way more expensive now, they are not going back to pre 2020 levels.
Like the approach. As Jack Welch stated years ago, “in God we trust, everyone one bring data”.
Does the data suggest that prices are where they would be had the pandemic not happened?
Also, how's the GT3 RS market today? Is it a good time to buy?
With interest rates climbing , sales of homes and luxury watches are down for sure in The UK, double digits for luxury watches.
For Luxury cars the trend will follow the homes and luxury watches for sure.
Will it be like this in the US market, yes I think, because people have short memory and don't recall interest rates was around 6 to 7% before the 2008 crash.
And everything one thought interest rates is normal being at 1%.
All folks who have mortgage will be paying a significant amount now compare to a year ago.
And most folks who buy luxury watches and cars buy it on credit.
What are the sources for these charts?
Would love to get your opinion on purchasing a base 911. I’m in the market for one and don’t know if you think it’s a good time? Dealer is asking around 5k dealer markup. I’m located in Los Angeles if that’s any help. Thank you!
A base 911 historically depreciates the hardest among all 911s. Buying it new is pretty dumb value wise, buying it above msrp is absolutely worse, unless u don’t care about value. But it sounds like u care otherwise u wouldn’t be in this channel, get a lightly used S/4S/GTS/T at 10-20% below msrp, either CPO or still under warranty or get a low mileage one and buy extended warranty will be much better for u value wise. Of course if u want a new one then don’t consider value coz u will be very disappointed even a Porsche badge won’t save u from high depreciation on a mass produced model right before the 992.2 is released
I just saw a 2023 992T with every option except Burmeister go for $135K, It had 3K miles and was a CPO. Rubystone paint. Tremendous car. That car likely went out the door for over $150K less than 12 months ago. You can find used 992S in the $120 range.
This is great analysis looking at the data in the past year. However, the effect of Fed keeping the rate high is starting to put more pressure. US consumer spending starting in Q4 will hit a real winter, including car market that is highly sensitive to the rates. So my thesis is, everything in your video is correct, but it doesn't' mean the market is not going to keep dropping more next year, at least in the US. We need to recognize the impact of a tight monetary policy, A recession is coming in 2024.
I wonder how your analysis matches with the Canadian market... Does the Canadian market follow the same trend? Second, in Canada there are as an example approx. 20 718 - Gt4s and approx. 15 GT4Rs for sale ranging form 2020 to 2023 and have been on the market from a few weeks to 120 days plus. Prices range from $139900 to 220,000 Canada for the GT4 fand up to $330,000 for the GTRS. Pricing these models on the configurator (shows they are being priced on average $30,000CDN above MSRP for the GT4 and a higher on the 4RS. Looking at the data how realistic is it for anyone paying such a premium that will not likely be returned? it seems this investor minded pricing is keeping many away given the 7.8-10% interest rates... hence demand exist but pricing is too high. Therefore, everyone is waiting for the pricing to decrease... is this possible since we have never had such a market transition in previous cycles where vehicle values appreciated across the board, and many selling continue to believe these vehicles investments. how is this mentality accounted for in your models? Just a question and thought. 1st and 2nd qrtr. 2024 will be interesting to see for both US and Canada. Tnanks...
Definitely keen on uk data around 911’s especially 997 as I can’t afford the newer ones
I think it's funny that people are willing to dismiss Doug DeMuro's insight on the car market. He founded "Cars and Bids" and is still active in running the business. Doug has access to car pricing and sale information in real time and his company is tracking sale data across the industry to determine reserve numbers. Simply put, he is not just "a UA-camr shilling for views" Take a look at the car market on any car search engine...Prices are dropping.
Did you watch the video? As someone who owns a 911 and has been viciously tracking some markets, its pretty obvious their insight is very late. Price stabilization also seems to be the case for the 911 markets I’ve tracked (namely 991.1 c2+c2s,991.1+991.2 gt3+rs. Not sure if you have any evidence of the contrary?
@@phazemaster2385 What does "Viciously tracking mean? I have been watching the 992 S and 991.2 GTS markets and I receive at least 5 dealer mark downs per week. What is more interesting is that the total inventory have grown by 20% over the last 6 weeks. With multiple dealers now offering 2023 cars for below sticker. If you only watch prices and not sales I think you are only getting part of the story. It takes a while for people to realize that the demand has fallen off, What is worse, banks aren't willing to write notes for cars as aggressively.
Dommage qu'il n'y a pas d'analyse similaire pour l'Europe carolingienne: Allemagne, Benelux, France, Italie...
I assume your date is based on cars that are sold. Doug has access to cars and bid stats and I estimate that he came to his conclusion based on the number of cars that didn't get sold on his website.
but how do u judge the price based on the listing price? I've seen them listed for a long time, indicating it's not selling at that price.
It is cross referenced with the inventory data.
Well done, the numbers don't lie.
Sale price data doesn’t lie…… I don’t see much of that……
Careful! "There's lies, 'damn lies,' and statistics!" That said, he always does an impeccable and irreproachable job!
@@BUMHEAD1100yup, that is the issue with this analysis , it is using listed price data for 992 GT3s, Doug founded a large auto auction platform and is likely using data from sold cars/auctions. If you look at sold cars specifically on 992 GT3s, you will see there has been a significant drop in the past two months, we saw drops last year at this time , so they may be seasonal , but the drops this year seem more substantial when looking at sold auctions. There has been a lot of speculators on 992 GT3s, and there’s a disconnect between listed prices and sold prices.
Excellent analysis, I saw JayEmm's video but not Doug's. I think he has a good seat of the pants hold on the market but doubt his conclusion of Porsche GT cars becoming a great deal are off.
2012 911 S cabriolet black on black. What’s a fair value today without having to worry about too much of a drop in next year
Prices are still coming down, wholesale data supports this.
Yes the trend is down, on average 7-8 percent compared to last year.
Your the best Harald!
Their conclusions are just opinions and you know what they say about opinions? lol. I recently visited one of the largest volume Porsche dealers on the U.S. East coast. They recently received 40 cars from Germany and not one made it to their showroom floor. Yeah, the market is softening, lol, right....
Auctions in the uk suggest that it is….. especially lower end Ferraris ! I just sold one and my arse hurts !
If car manufacturers are going to rack up building performance cars that less and less people can now afford (look at the insurance prices up 180% for some) - the 2nd hand market will explode and the premiums would be eroded to the extent of it seeming to be crashed
I understand Porsche is going to direct sales. Went to a local deler where they had $130k over GT3RS and $75k over GT4RS
Do have links to support your info? Is this in addition to the boutiques they are creating to provide more info to potential customers in a less stressful environment?
I like the inflation adjusted numbers a lot.
One of the reasons I like Ferrari as an investment is they can raise prices above inflation. As we learned, cash sucks and you lost out keeping your money in cash, if you were saving for any vehicle/future. You lost so much trying to save in cash these last few years.
Oh dear - update for 2023…… that 5% cash rate versus the current real monetary policy rate is looking pretty good !
Curious where gt500s are sitting these days…
Who would have thought actual data to support your opinions provides a better look at reality from some talking head youtuber's "feelings"?
Doug is hardly a talking head UA-camr. He founded and owns one of the biggest online auto auction platforms and has a team of people for running data analytics. His data is based on actual auction sales , this is far more relevant than the methods used here which are based on publicly listed vehicles. With all of the speculating that’s been going on in the market , there is still a wide margin of difference between what a 911 may be listed for vs actual sales data , which is what Doug focuses on. The actual sales numbers supports a decline that Doug and others have mentioned.
I did not see Doug reveal any of the data to support his claims so i cannot comment on the specifics, but auction data in general has many limitations that create a bias in the price trend and increase the uncertainty in the estimates. Listing data, naturally, also has its limitations. The largest one being that there can be a difference between the selling and listing price. For example, the price trend for the listing price can be flat, while the selling price decreased. This limitation, however, is partially mitigated by analysing the inventory data as you could see in the video.
Exactly
But he controls the reserve.. he will be the first one to be notified if the reserve needs to be lowered in order to keep the % sales high, which is how he makes money.
The market is flat in the UK. Walk into any garage and they’re empty of people buying. A recession is kicking off and anyone wanting to buy should wait until 1st quarter of next year.
992GT3s coming down is not indicative of markets coming down. They were new and hot, and after the heated intiial period it alwaya comes down. Just like how G wagons always work each new generation. It always starts with paying significantly over MSRP, to MSRP, to even below MSRP, and eventually depreciates too after 2-3 years when more people have gotten their cars
With production nearly ending, dealers are still getting 75+ adm. This same cycle will continue when the .2 comes only with a higher msrp
Is this a battle of YT content creators trying to shape prices for their own Porsche stock?
Agree and disagree here. Yes, the market began dropping earlier than right now and to say that the market is crashing is an overstatement (who would have thought youtubers would use clickbait titles...?). But while I am not a big follower of Doug, he has real, live data of what is happening with Cars and Bids. Sell through rates at BaT and Cars and Bids have been dropping and that doesn't get captured in your analysis here.
Prices will not drop off a cliff but I think the Hagerty price chart provides a great forecast of what is to come over the next year. A steady and consistent decline in prices. Of course keep an eye on a year end sell off by anyone acting as an investor, rather than an enthusiast.
Thanks as always for your content.
I agree, a consistent decline seems most likely.
The 991 inflation figures shocked me! I thought for sure even with inflation they were up.
I guess your idea of a crashing car market is a bit different than that of other people’s🤷♂️
Car lots across the country are filled with vehicles that they cannot sell. Many, many dealers are in panic mode. Some dealers are closing their doors. What more do you need?
Yep, some really bad choices made when consumers paid over sticker for run-of-the-mill cars and are now just handing them back - along with dealers making bad business choices buying used cars that were priced to high - all while thinking the car market would be stratospheric forever. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.
yup you got it for sure
Nothing can’t beat statistics!
Can you do the same for the UK market? This would give us a clear comparison to the YT hype.
I do not yet have as much data about the UK market as for the US, but i am building it up slowly and you will see more about the UK in the 2024.
Hi,
we are Germans biggest Porsche Customer and for that reason we are also selling a lot of Porsche. FYI just over the Last 2 weeks we Sold the Same 911 for 10k less. (We do auction Europe) that is not included in your data.
Only the US is covered, more about Germany and the UK in 2024. Having said that, i think that Europe is not flattening like the US is.
If you want to we can share more Information. We can give you first hand data with real transactions from Germany to challenge your data.
@@CarVia That would be great, my contact details are in the video description.
I think this guy goes by just list prices. Not selling prices. Doug has a lot of knowledge about cars selling in the US market. But this guy has good knowledge about what dealers list their cars for. I’ve recently noted when selling cars in the US market, it’s turning into a buyers market. Seems like dealers do not want to drop prices, at the same time buyers are not willing to pay high prices. It’s turning more into a stagnant market.
By including the inventory stats, this makes using the advertised price actually a statistically better number to use. Doug’s knowledge is only from one data set which is limited to “cars and bids” which may not be indicative of the market as a whole. This video is all about statistical analysis which removes much of the “anomalies” in sales from a limited data set of a single selling channel.
4 months later, price seems to keep on going down
Yes going down at normal rates, not crashing. Only the EVs are going down at above average rates.
Porsche GT car markets in Germany looks awful last few months…
I am aiming to include the German market in the next GT3 market update. It will be interesting to see how they compare.
In Europe, particularly in Germany last few months,
992GT3(including Touring)- €20,000 discount against original asking prices compare to few months ago
991.2GT3(including Touring) - same as 992
997 GT3/RS - suddenly more cars for sales in the market , noticeably more 997.2GT3RS😳 are for sale and price of them seem to be €15,000 -20,000 lower than few months ago. (Medium milage 997.2GT3RS 3.8) Up to some while ago, we did not see many 997.2GT3RS for sale.
I have not checked 996GT3 market yet.
Just my observation and qualitative information.
@@ast7500 I tend to agree that the Europe is not flat lining, but I need a bit more data to support it.
I look forward to seeing your new video for Euro market soon.
Contrary to water cooled GT3s, old Carrera RS and some unique models are still resilient looks like. Some have been exported to the US even recently. If 964RS (mid-high mileage) tank the market in EU, they will go to the US more. 993RS price is still very high but we see more 993RS are for sale not only in the EU but in the UK compare to few months ago. (Mostly high mileage cars)
UK sellers are asking C16(UK models ,WRONG steering position) special models with very high prices still. Bad cycle. UK buyers won’t splash money as much as they used to anymore, and C16 cars aren’t able to export out.
My fearless prediction , 2024 won’t be a great year for the car market
And what is your data showing now?
Respectfully disagree. Anecdotal evidence suggests otherwise in the NYC market. I own a private race track near NYC and my members have mentioned they’re no longer pursuing hyper and super cars in earnest and are waiting for a spectacular crash on the other side of the recent, ludicrous price run up. The coming recession will accelerate depreciation on most high end cars.
I'm hearing the same thing in my circle. Our local exotic dealer consisting of Lambo, McLaren, Maserati, Bugatti, and Rolls sold ZERO cars, new and used, the entire month of October. They're practically begging me to take a 750S allocation.
It's simply a matter of money being too expensive right now. But unfortunately, the entire economy of the world is built on easy money and no matter how much they lie to you about Higher for longer, the sad truth is that this system is coming to an end and they will go back to low interest rates and printing money again
I will always value Harald’s data over boviating buffoons looking for sensationalistic drama that drives ad traffic. I also don’t like being screamed at. (Not naming names…)
Any student of history and economics could have seen a sharp and unsustainable high-end car purchasing ramp-up during the pandemic (= ridiculous mark-ups that have now evaporated) and the sell-off when the speculators thought inflation was going to ruin us all. Neither were true: it wasn’t sustainable and it wasn’t inflation as much as greedflation that caused the problems. No one died from either. (The pandemic is another story…)
You gotta know when to sit out of certain markets. It’s been better investing in stocks compared to high-end cars since March of 2020.
For those of us (= most of us) buying used base Porsches (looking at you, Boxster and Cayman) we’ve been able to enjoy our cars with little stress - since we aren’t in the volatile small market of super high-end car buyers. We’re in the larger market of super-fun car buyers who enjoy driving their cars. It’s clearly a safer place to be.
Keep up the good work, Harald!
Yessss✌️
👍🏼👍🏼
USA prices way higher than UK.
Anything EV dropping like a stone
😎😎😎😎😎
I like your information on 911’s. And for the most part I agree in that regard… But you’re dead wrong about all other cars trucks and SUVs. Depreciating cars pre pandemic were about .5% a week at most for the first 1-3 years then tappers off depending on model and style. We are currently sitting at 4 times that. Some smaller compacts are 6 times the depreciation compared to pre pandemic levels. I just wonder if you’ll make an apology video next year? I’m going to guess you won’t.
I don't think you grasped the main message of the video: Not all cars are crashing. The video shows that some cars, like certain 911 models, are not depreciating at above normal rates while other models, like Taycans, are crashing. Therefore, it is wrong to state that the complete market is crashing. I update the video every three months with new data so there will be a video one year from now.
Completely diff markets. USA growing by 6%, UK flatlining. Prestige and supercar prices falling like a stone. Bad luck USA
Prices r just normalizing
bWe'll se what will happen if the economy stagnates in 24 and 25 as many economists are forecasting. Central Banks flooded the world with paper money on pandemic times and that naturally overinflated all assets.
LOL! Dreamer! Really, have you purchased a new Supercar! LOL!
Yeah well look forward 12 months and it’s coming. Everyone is holding now but things are only getting worse in the USA. Time to sell, wait to buy.
Doug DeMuro is so annoying! You back up your perspective with statistics.
@@GWOTKoolAidYou watch Hagerty? They are also excellent.
Jayemm has a tendency to critize Porsche in general because his dna is different at least that is what he wants to promote.
Great data men and for that you are very good at. Just keep in mind that you are only focusing on the car market and I would argue that the economy as a whole has a great impact on the car market. For you to say that the market is not crashing and that it’s canceled sounds a little delusional to me. You aren’t doing yourself a favor by completely dismissing the state of the economy. A year till they lower down rates is a long away. I don’t think people will rush to by a car as soon as they drop 25 pts. The economy will still be in hurt even a little after they lower down rates. Great video on date tho but remind yourself that data is just a lagging indicator.
As discussed in the video, i am only making descriptive statements about what happened so far. It is clearly outlined when I switch from descriptive to predictive statements.
That's why I can't stand sensationalist BS like most of Doug's content has become - present some data and falsely assume that you can apply it to the broader market. On JM's video, I do feel like his video had a little bit more to it, because he was specifically targeting Porsche and he had that plug-in to showcase how dealers have been decreasing prices. Mind you that the UK has a very specific economic environment in the aftermath of COVID that is no longer comparable to the US - you barely hear people talking about inflation in the US, outside of capital markets, while the UK literally coined a new phrase for its own inflation situation ("cost of living crisis").
Yes i agree. I am not saying that JM is wrong when it comes to the UK market. His data supports his conclusion. I just don't see similar drops at the moment in the US.
Doug is focused on just cars resale value. It ruined him actually.
Borrowing rates are finally coming down, asset values go up. So I think we may have bottomed.
europe/ england are way worse off than usa. england apr 10 +%
More numbers on this soon. It will be interesting to see how they compare.
Popular you tubers but in regards to cars, both dont know what they are talking about. They cant even drive properly what do they know of market crushing? 🤦🏻♂️
Analysing couple years of trend with few terms used in economics 101 don't make your video credible. Sales of new luxury products including cars and fashion are declining in major markets and second-hand market will follow. Its pathetic to believe otherwise.
No, i don't think market is going to crash, and companies are smart enough to manage their production since used market price has a direct impact to their brand value.
But you must be delusional to think used car market is immune to macroeconomics. The growth of luxury car market was driven by the low interest rate set by the central government to artificially stimulate growth and we will be paying for it for the next couple years.
Can you explain your credibility concern? What evidence other than presented would you like to see to support the analysis that the market is not crashing?
i dont mind jayemm in general, but his recent video on car prices was total horseshit. there were so many chronological errors that i wouldnt have trusted anything in that vid. clickbait over fact.
Jayemm and Doug are full of opinions, they wouldn’t know the meaning of data
Jayemm has ZERO credibility. He is the KiNG of the click- baiters. I stopped viewing his channel 2 years ago.
Truck and car market is going to crash HARD!
You show the trends in used car prices and state they have normalized but you don’t show used car depreciation as it relates to the new car price which has not returned to pre pandemic norms. A one or two year old 911 turbo s is still going for the window sticker price, when that changes, the bottom will drop out.