Very interesting! I learned a lot. It was insightful to learn about the policies of the Obama administration in the Middle East and how it led directly to the events we are currently seeing. Also very good summary of the different factions within Syria.
Missed you two so much. Skipping a week is way too long! I checked several times each day from last Tuesday until today. This was a great episode. Thank you both! Have been dying to hear Mike’s assessment given the shift to Turkey. You never disappoint! The two of you together are an unbeatable combination. Please arrange a meeting with Trump and Bibi. Mike they need your input on this one.
Thank you Mike for your insight with respect to the PKK in Syria. As you pointed out, like other Israelis, I also fear Turkey will replace Iran trying to lead the Islamic world via the promise to free Jerusalem… I am not sure real politics can ever last as long as it needs under heavy cultural cross currents to the opposite. As long as Muslim brotherhood type mentality is leading, it feels like Israel it taking its chances regardless of how it plays
Awesome presentation on Turkey, Syria and Israeli policy. I learned a lot, and appreciate the depth of the discussion, and how much it helped me to grasp the current policy choices in light of the fall of Assad. Israel Update is a tremendous podcast.
Thanks, Mike! You answered my question that I posed on yesterday's Deep Dive episode in my comment: Why are you so pro Turkey?. It was long, but now I understand particularly since I am no fan of Obama. I lay the blame for the current Mideast kerfluffle directly at his feet.
What an education I'm getting...thanks you guys. I've never heard the case before and now understand that US policy toward Turkey needs to change in order to enhance regional security, especially for Israel where I live. It's shocking that the Israeli political establishment doesn't understand the case that Mike laid out so succinctly. Perhaps Mike can find a way to educate them, yes?
@SharonaLight his greatest observation on Turkey was that in the near future, Iran would turn into what secular Turkey used to be, and Turkey would turn into a fundamentalist Islamic regime.
@@asafgozlan wow I didn’t know that. I respect Bernard Lewis a lot but I wonder how he could have predicted such a thing before he died. I mean, Turkey descending into Islamism I can believe, although it seems to me most Turks today pride themselves on being secular. But maybe secularism and terrorism are not mutually exclusive. But what will happen in Iran seems hard to predict right now. Then again, what Mike is saying here seems plausible to me as well. I just don’t know.
:) I once read Mike's essay on the Iran deal. It revealed so much more than I could find elsewhere that I also followed him ever since. His description of the policy and the personalities even in this show is as revelatory as ever! (Having said that, I am concerned about potential Islamization of Turkey, and I'd love to hear what Mike thinks or knows about the sudden "moderation" of the new Syrian leader and his dependence on Ankara)
I really admire both of you and enjoy greatly the back and forth between you. I grain such a better understanding of the situation in Israel and the situation in the Middle East. I think you both should be a part of the inner circle of advisers to Trump and Netanyahu. Thank you for sharing your wit and wisdom.
A fascinating break down of the History and situation in Syria. I’m just wondering where is it possible for the Kurds to achieve self determination and their own State in that part of the World
Brilliant exposure by Michael Doran. Not forgetting the millions of Syrians now helping the diversity programme in Europe. Also, in its way, thanks to OBummer. PS how does Greece and South Cyprus think about Turkey? And does this advise seeming rapprochements with Israel and others.
Our (Israel) fear is we fighting a seven front war, finally defeating Iran, and then we are depleted weapon wise, while Turkey and Egypt, the largest armies in the middle east wait patiently. Could you be right about Erdogan practical motives? Possibly, but didn't we say the same things about Hamas? That they have no logical reason to attack us? Radical Islam is a powerful force. Your argument about the other forces in Turkey is more reassuring.
To me, the question now is whether it is worth exploring some form of cooperation with Turkey - cautiously and with our eyes wide open. It may lead to peace and stability. It may not.
Erdogan and Putin both fancy restoring their empires. I had hoped that their desires would lead to conflict over Ukraine (which was captured by both the Russian and Ottoman Empires), and they would fight each other. But, sadly they seem to be in alliance. As long as this remains true, these genocidal tyrants are a threat to the near east and eastern Europe.
Great analysis of the folly of US foreign policy through the lens of Turkey, Israel, the Kurds and Syria, Mike. I love it when you get so complex that I have to go back and listen a second time. But, then I’m a political scientist (of US political economy). As such, I’ve got a question for the professors in both of you. Can you provide your listeners with a good, short, historical reading list, to give us a better understanding of the present?
Calling Ben Gvir a "clown" (or a "racist" as it was fashionable to do pre-Oct 7), reflects very poorly on the speaker. The guy has been consistently on the right side of history. It was otherwise a very good episode
I enjoy this show immensely, and have learned a lot. Also great chemistry between you two. Mike mentioned several times the mutual interests Turkey & Israel have. Aside from limiting Iran, what others do they have in common? I find myself arguing with many pro Israel friends about not antagonizing Turkey, and all I hear is 'they host Hamas," "Muslim Brotherhood," "they're Israel's enemy" etc.
All of which is true. They host Hamas, they welcome Muslim Brotherhood. Recently political echelon of Turkey is moving into a much more religious direction…
Welcome back gentleman. I read an Arutz Sheva article which quoted Mike clarifying the situation with the Kurds in Syria. Certain Israeli officials apparently had their heads screwed on backwards. Go Mike! (We think you’re great too Gadi but Mike has his finger on pulse of Syria).
Job 3:25 NKJV "For the thing I greatly feared has come upon me, And what I dreaded has happened to me." Gadi's biblical reference. Everyone should read the Bible! It's fascinating!!
By far, the best analysis I have heard so far. If only more Americans and Israelis knew about Obama'\Biden's delusional policies, many lives could have been saved. Thanks Mike and Gadi, and keep up the good work and funny vibes.
It's dissappointing that Mike is parroting the superficial depiction of BenGvir in mainstream media. BenGvir is actually very effective, and open-minded, and it's clear that Mike is hardly aware of Ben Gvir's meaningful activity in reality. It's also sad that Gadi doesn't push back against this superficial uninformed statements of Mike on Ben Gvir. And let me note: I'm not one of Ben Gvir's voters.
BG has acted like a clown for decades. Whether he is one now or not, he acted like he was a Jewish Department asset. Trust would have to be earned over a long period of time watching him carefully.
Mikes egotism always disgusts me but I could hardly get through this episode without heaving. His favorable views of Türkiye and Erdogan are dangerously naive. Erdogan has repeatedly said “he’s coming for Jerusalem”. He has made many predictions on Israel Update and they have all been wrong. He also supported GW Bush’s invasion of Iraq. His track record speaks for itself…
The collision between Israel and Turkey is inevitable because the Turks see themselves as the natural rulers if this area they call the Mediterranean "our sea" and Israel a state that could disturb their dominance in the region, the generals are busy fighting today's wars thinking what might be tomorrow but they have no idea what will come in 5-10 years.
@Mike: Thank you. Thank you!!! FINALLY getting to how/why Obama pivoted so hard on the work we did in the 90s and early 2000s in Washington and Jerusalem to isolate Iran (and Libya) at the time. I switched into public health and medicine and missed much of the geopolitical world from Obama until Biden :-) A question for you Mike: I had heard that Brzezinski's viewpoint changed in the mid-2000s from his 1997 The Grand Chessboard articulation. Clearly MIka and Mark were highly involved with Obama, does that make it likely that the Brzezinski pivot is what caused this past 16 years of turmoil in the Middle East because they reoriented their strategy/tactics around the chessboard? It seems highly likely. That might also make it that Obama (and Biden) was just playing the role given to him, i.e. it was more of a policy to lure our enemies into thinking we were weaker than we are so we could trap them and checkmate them in the war for the Caucasus region and Middle East. Thus, I might suggest some global chess playing on behalf of Zbigniew, Mika, and Mark, et al! IF that's the case, that is amazing next-level (for how most in the policy sectors see these things, i.e. most just watch and analyze the political theater, instead of looking at the chess and policies).
Mike on Ben Gvir "I'm against ethno- religious chauvinists" Mike sounds like AOC and it's truly embarrassing: he is as superficial, uninformed and bigoted in this case. Very disappointing to hear this kind of BS here.
As long as this discussion was about surveying the map of interests and timeline, it was great. But Mike Turkey-fillia is too much for me. I am the last one to trust Erdogan. Mike is wrong from time to time... reminder: the 2006 agreement that led to the 1701 resolution did not work for us well, and I think that Mike was part of the diplomats to work on this fiasco of resolution.
Usually i put this video in the background while doing other things, but this time it seems I'll have to listen to this a second time with a pen and paper; VERY detailed analysis of the Turkish-rebels-Israeli interests in Syria, i was not expecting that, no offence lol.
There’s 40 million Kurds and they are always persecuted. They need a state more than any other group in the Middle East. It’s just a fact so really don’t get why you’re lying about them and saying they’re all PKK.
It all seems to be going as Dr Doran said it would. You might say a bit about Ron Dermer's November visit to Moscow which the media took to be about the Lebanon but may have been about Syria.
Tucker Carlson published an interview with Jeffrey Sachs. Blaming Israel/netanyahu for the Assad fall. He is saying that Israel decided to change the Middle East 30 years ago. And it’s all the fault of Netanyahu. Ofcourse he adds AIPAC blames too. Your comments please?
Fwiw Tucker's dad was deep state, the scroll on sub stack went deep on his explorations and experimentations and speculates on Tucker's role now. In response I'd say so what? Taking down a neighboring dictator with a murderous history without firing a shot is brilliant, snipers will snipe and the Israel derangement syndrome is real, I'd heard Mr Zack's previously talking in context of Ukraine and thought he was savvy, but then it's become normal to discover that someone you're listening to that you respected has Israel derangement syndrome and what else are they lying about
Sachs is a rah rah Columbia University guy and very deep state asset whose role/ideological bent is now (or at least in the past numerous years) to always blame Israel for everything. I suspect him of having a character to play, but who knows what he really thinks because he's from Columbia.
Carlson will platform anyone who criticizes Israel, he's a hater. And Sachs is simply obsessed with Israel to the point that he cannot see that Turkey, not Israel, overthrew Assad, albeit it due to Israeli action in Lebanon.
Love you guys. A bit skeptical at Mike's claims of strength of the Real Politique stance in Turkey. Also I'm worried that going along with this analysis would then numb the Israeli government and security forces to real threats coming from Islamists like Erdogan, when they're escorted by action which we learned to take seriously finally. I'm suspicious of Turkey, doesn't mean I'm pro the PKK alignment, but I think Israel and Israelis ought to be.
mike's views on turkey resemble ariel sharon's views on iran the 1980s. ignore rhetoric, focus on interests. turned out to not work that way. Now maybe its true that iran is a revolution and turkey is a country, but turkey could still one day become very problematic. if russia can be a problem for not just ukraine but most of its neighbors, TR can become that for israel.
@@yanivreif7379 it doesnt matter, israel has never supported PKK/YPG as much as TR has and continues support for hamas. tons of money, protection for its leaders, diplomatic support for hamas and vicious attacks on israel, there have been small arms seziures from TR to hamas. TR state may have done cyber attacks on israel. what does exactly mike want? that israelies should like this behavior because something something iran something something obama ??
@@yanivreif7379 it doesnt matter, israel has never supported PKK/YPG as much as TR has and continues support for hamas. tons of money, protection for its leaders, diplomatic support for hamas and vicious attacks on israel, there have been small arms seziures from TR to hamas. TR state may have done cyber attacks on israel. what does exactly mike want? that israelies should like this behavior because something something iran something something obama ??
Been eating for this such a good conversation but one thing stand up to me is that the Golenists are not Islamists to the best of my knowledge, on the contrary. Here’s a good conversation about Golen and his movement by Professor Efrat Aviv ua-cam.com/video/9Vx7WZSkFCg/v-deo.htmlsi=ZpFCY195BcsEuzT6
Really appreciate this analysis. However I continue to think Mike has a soft spot for Turkey. I don’t trust Turkey, despite all the nuances and complexities of the situation.
"Real Politiq" exists for Israel as well . From my perspective, that includes the "possible" (offering some protection to the Druze in Syria, and to Jordan) , and the "wishful thinking" -- that seems to escape Mike (that includes a 'similar situation' based identifying with the Kurdish people , and their struggle for an independent State , a State that goes against the "Real Politiq" of Iran, Iraq, and yes ... Turkey) . So it may not be understandable or relatable, but the Kurdish desire for self determination resonates with many Israelis, and even some Americans (and American Jews apparently) --- ironically much in the same way that the "Palestinian struggle" resonates with their (non Jew hating) supporters . It is ironic, that just as an inward looking American Administration enters, the weakness of Iran and Syria allows the Kurds to feel closer to independence than ever before ... -- a "perfect time" for their strongest opponent (Turkey) to attempt to crush them .
What is your view on the reuniting and supporting; The Syrian Druze with Israel? I hope you can comment on potential permanent enhancements to Israel and the Druze in light of current events. Cheers from Seattle! 🍻
Great informative discussion. Thank you Mike. Yet, Israel must prioritize its interests. 1. Iran nuclear weapons 2. Iran nuclear plan 3. Iran U (atomic element 92). I also think that we need to work towards breaking up Syria because homogeneous nations are far more stable than the Sykes-Picot balloony. Specifically, Alawites along the coast line, Christian Orthodox autonomy around Aleppo, Kurdistan in the north east, and Druze autonomy east to the Israeli Golan and "Jabel Druze". And let ISIS and the shiite (and you can remove one "i") kill each other. This means that Israel will have 2 allies (Druze and Kurdistan). BY THE WAY: the kurds in Iraq, led by Barazani in the 80s were a great allies of Israel. Furthermore, Kurds are the largest minority in the world without a homeland (30M+ people). And they deserve a state far more than the invented nation of Palestine. Also, Erdogan, a known antisemite, is part of the muslim brothers and he yearns to revive the Ottoman rule in its 21st century form. And we cannot trust this antisemite.
Mike Doran feels vindicated because finally his pistachio induced allergy he chronically suffered from, had a major supply setback. Now his biases for coffee and nutella seem to be clouding his rational judgment. For a principled realist who cares about balance of power, It is quite unusual to be rooting for a regional power band-wagoning behind a relatively not so strong in-the-making regional hegemon, and in the process, sacrificing the descendants of "the sun Roj". Assuming the region currently has 3 and a half powers(Turkey, Iran, Israel with the half being egypt+arabs) , under what international relations theory is it in the interest of Israel to form a strategic alliance with Turkey, especially with Iran on full retreat? Other than keep your enemy your best friend, why would you do that ? How can you balance against Turkey if you allow it quasi-ottoman influence in the region ? or a simpler question : how can you trust Turkey to know its limits in the new regional order, and not go full hegemon, get caught in the classic irrationalities of the region, and commit strategic suicide like Iran did ? Isn't better for Israel to have some form of a balanced relationship with both Kurds and Turkey, as a form of checks and balances on the potential hegemony of Turkey ? Morally: Do Kurds have or deserve any right of self-determination in Doran's worldview ? And how would you sell this argument in DC : let's offer an ethnic group that literally fought and died for us, as a make-up gift to an ally who's unsure about their relationship with us ? On another note, I like Mike.
Ugh! This comments section is the verge of worshipping you two. 1st of all, you guys are not that great, and secondly Rumble sucks, and actually UA-cam does too…
That was really a remarkable analysis of Syria's role in the Middle East. Thanks for sharing it with us.
Can't you spare us two hours? You are both brilliant and yet personable an entertaining. I learn much from your discussions.
Been waiting for this.
Very interesting! I learned a lot. It was insightful to learn about the policies of the Obama administration in the Middle East and how it led directly to the events we are currently seeing. Also very good summary of the different factions within Syria.
Long week when circumstances are out of control. Now, time to enjoy this update.
Don't leave us for this much time again
Indeed. Too hard.😅
Best episode to date! Mike's analysis and breakdown of Syria, Turkey, the American side of the story and what not was phenomenal
Love you guys!!!!!
Missed you two so much. Skipping a week is way too long! I checked several times each day from last Tuesday until today. This was a great episode. Thank you both! Have been dying to hear Mike’s assessment given the shift to Turkey. You never disappoint! The two of you together are an unbeatable combination. Please arrange a meeting with Trump and Bibi. Mike they need your input on this one.
I seem to remember last time Trump was the only member of NATO, together with Stoltenberg, who wasn't nasty to Erdogan.
Very informative, great show.
Thank you Mike for your insight with respect to the PKK in Syria. As you pointed out, like other Israelis, I also fear Turkey will replace Iran trying to lead the Islamic world via the promise to free Jerusalem… I am not sure real politics can ever last as long as it needs under heavy cultural cross currents to the opposite. As long as Muslim brotherhood type mentality is leading, it feels like Israel it taking its chances regardless of how it plays
Awesome presentation on Turkey, Syria and Israeli policy. I learned a lot, and appreciate the depth of the discussion, and how much it helped me to grasp the current policy choices in light of the fall of Assad. Israel Update is a tremendous podcast.
Excellent analysis by Mike. Thank you!!
"I'm against ethno- religious chauvinists" says erdogan's cheerleader mike doran 😂
Thanks, Mike! You answered my question that I posed on yesterday's Deep Dive episode in my comment: Why are you so pro Turkey?. It was long, but now I understand particularly since I am no fan of Obama. I lay the blame for the current Mideast kerfluffle directly at his feet.
What an incredible class on what is going on around Israel and its origins. Thanks to both of you
What an education I'm getting...thanks you guys. I've never heard the case before and now understand that US policy toward Turkey needs to change in order to enhance regional security, especially for Israel where I live. It's shocking that the Israeli political establishment doesn't understand the case that Mike laid out so succinctly. Perhaps Mike can find a way to educate them, yes?
Missed you both last week, but this show made up for it! Superb political summary of the Syrian theatre by Mike...I hope Bibi was listening!
פרק מעולה, סקירה מרתקת של חלקים במזרח התיכון. אוהב את שניכם!❤
What a privilege to be able to listen to these guys!
Superb analysis, as always.
Usually Bernard Lewis laughs at Mike's comments from heaven but these comments in defense of Turkey have him spinning in his grave
Wasn’t Bernard Lewis a Turk-Phile?
@SharonaLight his greatest observation on Turkey was that in the near future, Iran would turn into what secular Turkey used to be, and Turkey would turn into a fundamentalist Islamic regime.
@@asafgozlan wow I didn’t know that. I respect Bernard Lewis a lot but I wonder how he could have predicted such a thing before he died. I mean, Turkey descending into Islamism I can believe, although it seems to me most Turks today pride themselves on being secular. But maybe secularism and terrorism are not mutually exclusive. But what will happen in Iran seems hard to predict right now. Then again, what Mike is saying here seems plausible to me as well. I just don’t know.
I was wondering where you were
Best analysis! None of the other Israeli-English channels give anywhere near this depth, never mind US or Euro outlets. Keep going!
Love the shoutout on my comment Mike 🎉
I once saw you speak while I was a Hertog fellow and have been following ever since
:) I once read Mike's essay on the Iran deal. It revealed so much more than I could find elsewhere that I also followed him ever since. His description of the policy and the personalities even in this show is as revelatory as ever! (Having said that, I am concerned about potential Islamization of Turkey, and I'd love to hear what Mike thinks or knows about the sudden "moderation" of the new Syrian leader and his dependence on Ankara)
Great. Saving for a sweeter ride to work 🙃
I missed you both.
this show is fantastic…great mixture of thoughts you both make this a great and quite entertaining and thought provoking show…don’t change a thing 😊
Agreed. But shorten the banter at the beginning a bit.
Kurds were enormously helpful in Iraq. And particularly loyal.
I really admire both of you and enjoy greatly the back and forth between you. I grain such a better
understanding of the situation in Israel and the situation in the Middle East. I think you both should be a part of the inner circle of advisers to Trump and Netanyahu. Thank you for sharing your wit and wisdom.
A fascinating break down of the History and situation in Syria. I’m just wondering where is it possible for the Kurds to achieve self determination and their own State in that part of the World
As a Turkish i can say everything Mike said is True, and İsrael and Turkey work together to support Azerbaijan.
Great and informative guys.
Brilliant exposure by Michael Doran. Not forgetting the millions of Syrians now helping the diversity programme in Europe. Also, in its way, thanks to OBummer. PS how does Greece and South Cyprus think about Turkey? And does this advise seeming rapprochements with Israel and others.
So enjoy having the picture so clearly laid out by those who know the truth, thank you both very much
Our (Israel) fear is we fighting a seven front war, finally defeating Iran, and then we are depleted weapon wise, while Turkey and Egypt, the largest armies in the middle east wait patiently.
Could you be right about Erdogan practical motives? Possibly, but didn't we say the same things about Hamas? That they have no logical reason to attack us? Radical Islam is a powerful force.
Your argument about the other forces in Turkey is more reassuring.
To me, the question now is whether it is worth exploring some form of cooperation with Turkey - cautiously and with our eyes wide open. It may lead to peace and stability. It may not.
Erdogan and Putin both fancy restoring their empires. I had hoped that their desires would lead to conflict over Ukraine (which was captured by both the Russian and Ottoman Empires), and they would fight each other. But, sadly they seem to be in alliance. As long as this remains true, these genocidal tyrants are a threat to the near east and eastern Europe.
We missed you too!! 💟❤
Great analysis of the folly of US foreign policy through the lens of Turkey, Israel, the Kurds and Syria, Mike. I love it when you get so complex that I have to go back and listen a second time. But, then I’m a political scientist (of US political economy). As such, I’ve got a question for the professors in both of you. Can you provide your listeners with a good, short, historical reading list, to give us a better understanding of the present?
Calling Ben Gvir a "clown" (or a "racist" as it was fashionable to do pre-Oct 7), reflects very poorly on the speaker. The guy has been consistently on the right side of history.
It was otherwise a very good episode
Brilliant, as always. Gentlemen, you kick my socks off. How come Israelis didn’t crack Brett McGurk, what happened to their intelligence prowess?
Your audience missed you both very much.
You missed each other. But what about us? We looked for you every day!
Very informative!
I enjoy this show immensely, and have learned a lot. Also great chemistry between you two.
Mike mentioned several times the mutual interests Turkey & Israel have. Aside from limiting Iran, what others do they have in common?
I find myself arguing with many pro Israel friends about not antagonizing Turkey, and all I hear is 'they host Hamas," "Muslim Brotherhood," "they're Israel's enemy" etc.
All of which is true. They host Hamas, they welcome Muslim Brotherhood. Recently political echelon of Turkey is moving into a much more religious direction…
very interesting analysis of Turkey. Id love to see a whole hour on it.
A judicial system straight out of Chelm.. 😂
Welcome back gentleman. I read an Arutz Sheva article which quoted Mike clarifying the situation with the Kurds in Syria. Certain Israeli officials apparently had their heads screwed on backwards. Go Mike! (We think you’re great too Gadi but Mike has his finger on pulse of Syria).
Bibi's testimony at this time does not pass the REASONABLE LAW!!!! Totally insane, actually.
Job 3:25 NKJV
"For the thing I greatly feared has come upon me, And what I dreaded has happened to me."
Gadi's biblical reference. Everyone should read the Bible! It's fascinating!!
Reminds me of Dr Seuss and the Circus McGurkus. Sorry for the flippancy but Mike and Gadi are not the only ones shedding tears.
Great show. Really
Wow Mike! So smart and informative. Pls get into Bibis office and tell him personally
Wow great analysis
Michael Doran is awesome.
Thank you
By far, the best analysis I have heard so far. If only more Americans and Israelis knew about Obama'\Biden's delusional policies, many lives could have been saved. Thanks Mike and Gadi, and keep up the good work and funny vibes.
It's dissappointing that Mike is parroting the superficial depiction of BenGvir in mainstream media. BenGvir is actually very effective, and open-minded, and it's clear that Mike is hardly aware of Ben Gvir's meaningful activity in reality. It's also sad that Gadi doesn't push back against this superficial uninformed statements of Mike on Ben Gvir. And let me note: I'm not one of Ben Gvir's voters.
BG has acted like a clown for decades. Whether he is one now or not, he acted like he was a Jewish Department asset. Trust would have to be earned over a long period of time watching him carefully.
Mikes egotism always disgusts me but I could hardly get through this episode without heaving. His favorable views of Türkiye and Erdogan are dangerously naive. Erdogan has repeatedly said “he’s coming for Jerusalem”.
He has made many predictions on Israel Update and they have all been wrong. He also supported GW Bush’s invasion of Iraq. His track record speaks for itself…
Erdoğan never said anything hostile against İsrael state, he usually bash Netanyahu but not İsrael.
@@cemyurdakul1128 couple of week ago he said he was ready to attack iasrael
The collision between Israel and Turkey is inevitable because the Turks see themselves as the natural rulers if this area they call the Mediterranean "our sea" and Israel a state that could disturb their dominance in the region, the generals are busy fighting today's wars thinking what might be tomorrow but they have no idea what will come in 5-10 years.
@Mike: Thank you. Thank you!!! FINALLY getting to how/why Obama pivoted so hard on the work we did in the 90s and early 2000s in Washington and Jerusalem to isolate Iran (and Libya) at the time. I switched into public health and medicine and missed much of the geopolitical world from Obama until Biden :-)
A question for you Mike: I had heard that Brzezinski's viewpoint changed in the mid-2000s from his 1997 The Grand Chessboard articulation. Clearly MIka and Mark were highly involved with Obama, does that make it likely that the Brzezinski pivot is what caused this past 16 years of turmoil in the Middle East because they reoriented their strategy/tactics around the chessboard? It seems highly likely. That might also make it that Obama (and Biden) was just playing the role given to him, i.e. it was more of a policy to lure our enemies into thinking we were weaker than we are so we could trap them and checkmate them in the war for the Caucasus region and Middle East.
Thus, I might suggest some global chess playing on behalf of Zbigniew, Mika, and Mark, et al! IF that's the case, that is amazing next-level (for how most in the policy sectors see these things, i.e. most just watch and analyze the political theater, instead of looking at the chess and policies).
Mike on Ben Gvir "I'm against ethno- religious chauvinists" Mike sounds like AOC and it's truly embarrassing: he is as superficial, uninformed and bigoted in this case. Very disappointing to hear this kind of BS here.
As long as this discussion was about surveying the map of interests and timeline, it was great. But Mike Turkey-fillia is too much for me. I am the last one to trust Erdogan. Mike is wrong from time to time... reminder: the 2006 agreement that led to the 1701 resolution did not work for us well, and I think that Mike was part of the diplomats to work on this fiasco of resolution.
I like Mike but Tukey is his kryptonite, I can't take his takes on Turkey seriously.
Usually i put this video in the background while doing other things, but this time it seems I'll have to listen to this a second time with a pen and paper; VERY detailed analysis of the Turkish-rebels-Israeli interests in Syria, i was not expecting that, no offence lol.
There’s 40 million Kurds and they are always persecuted. They need a state more than any other group in the Middle East. It’s just a fact so really don’t get why you’re lying about them and saying they’re all PKK.
Mike doesn't like ethno religious chauvinists. You mean like Erdogan?
It all seems to be going as Dr Doran said it would. You might say a bit about Ron Dermer's November visit to Moscow which the media took to be about the Lebanon but may have been about Syria.
hopefully still as sane as possible under the out of control circumstances!
Ole!
Tucker Carlson published an interview with Jeffrey Sachs. Blaming Israel/netanyahu for the Assad fall. He is saying that Israel decided to change the Middle East 30 years ago. And it’s all the fault of Netanyahu. Ofcourse he adds AIPAC blames too. Your comments please?
Fwiw Tucker's dad was deep state, the scroll on sub stack went deep on his explorations and experimentations and speculates on Tucker's role now.
In response I'd say so what? Taking down a neighboring dictator with a murderous history without firing a shot is brilliant, snipers will snipe and the Israel derangement syndrome is real, I'd heard Mr Zack's previously talking in context of Ukraine and thought he was savvy, but then it's become normal to discover that someone you're listening to that you respected has Israel derangement syndrome and what else are they lying about
Sachs not Zack
Sachs is a rah rah Columbia University guy and very deep state asset whose role/ideological bent is now (or at least in the past numerous years) to always blame Israel for everything. I suspect him of having a character to play, but who knows what he really thinks because he's from Columbia.
Carlson will platform anyone who criticizes Israel, he's a hater. And Sachs is simply obsessed with Israel to the point that he cannot see that Turkey, not Israel, overthrew Assad, albeit it due to Israeli action in Lebanon.
Love you guys. A bit skeptical at Mike's claims of strength of the Real Politique stance in Turkey.
Also I'm worried that going along with this analysis would then numb the Israeli government and security forces to real threats coming from Islamists like Erdogan, when they're escorted by action which we learned to take seriously finally.
I'm suspicious of Turkey, doesn't mean I'm pro the PKK alignment, but I think Israel and Israelis ought to be.
Gadi, Octopuses have 6 legs and 2 arms, but no tentacles 😮
Please post the Lapid website - Eretz Nehderet should do a skit of Lapid, Harris, Bernie Sanders, Trudeau, Macron and Merkel doing a talk show
No one would bet on the wife over the mistress.
The guy i want to hear on this podcast is mostly quite
We also missed you badly
mike's views on turkey resemble ariel sharon's views on iran the 1980s. ignore rhetoric, focus on interests. turned out to not work that way. Now maybe its true that iran is a revolution and turkey is a country, but turkey could still one day become very problematic. if russia can be a problem for not just ukraine but most of its neighbors, TR can become that for israel.
Mike’s point is Turkish defense establishment and Erdogan are not one like the the Supreme leader and the IRGC
@@yanivreif7379 it doesnt matter, israel has never supported PKK/YPG as much as TR has and continues support for hamas. tons of money, protection for its leaders, diplomatic support for hamas and vicious attacks on israel, there have been small arms seziures from TR to hamas. TR state may have done cyber attacks on israel. what does exactly mike want? that israelies should like this behavior because something something iran something something obama ??
@@yanivreif7379 it doesnt matter, israel has never supported PKK/YPG as much as TR has and continues support for hamas. tons of money, protection for its leaders, diplomatic support for hamas and vicious attacks on israel, there have been small arms seziures from TR to hamas. TR state may have done cyber attacks on israel. what does exactly mike want? that israelies should like this behavior because something something iran something something obama ??
@@yanivreif7379 Also, we have to work with Turkey just as Turkey has to work with Israel.
Where you bin guys!
Been eating for this such a good conversation but one thing stand up to me is that the Golenists are not Islamists to the best of my knowledge, on the contrary.
Here’s a good conversation about Golen and his movement by Professor Efrat Aviv
ua-cam.com/video/9Vx7WZSkFCg/v-deo.htmlsi=ZpFCY195BcsEuzT6
Mike, anything changes in you Israel Turkey analysis in Syria if Iranian regime is toppled and pro west Iran emerges?
Really appreciate this analysis. However I continue to think Mike has a soft spot for Turkey. I don’t trust Turkey, despite all the nuances and complexities of the situation.
serious times demands strong but not too serious characters like you..............................
question: why didn’t Trump fire McGurk in his first term. Does Trump agree with the policy of supporting SDF/PKK?
"Real Politiq" exists for Israel as well .
From my perspective, that includes the "possible" (offering some protection to the Druze in Syria, and to Jordan) , and the "wishful thinking" -- that seems to escape Mike (that includes a 'similar situation' based identifying with the Kurdish people , and their struggle for an independent State , a State that goes against the "Real Politiq" of Iran, Iraq, and yes ... Turkey) .
So it may not be understandable or relatable, but the Kurdish desire for self determination resonates with many Israelis, and even some Americans (and American Jews apparently) --- ironically much in the same way that the "Palestinian struggle" resonates with their (non Jew hating) supporters .
It is ironic, that just as an inward looking American Administration enters, the weakness of Iran and Syria allows the Kurds to feel closer to independence than ever before ... -- a "perfect time" for their strongest opponent (Turkey) to attempt to crush them .
You don't seem to understand that the PKK policy is to partition Turkey. By horrible force.
how many compliments do i have to give you before you read my comment mike??
The Italian states used to go to war with each other before the country was united. Learn your history!
What is your view on the reuniting and supporting; The Syrian Druze with Israel? I hope you can comment on potential permanent enhancements to Israel and the Druze in light of current events.
Cheers from Seattle! 🍻
we all missed you crying or not...................
Israel is not a democracy so the ICC has jurisdiction.
Great informative discussion. Thank you Mike. Yet, Israel must prioritize its interests.
1. Iran nuclear weapons
2. Iran nuclear plan
3. Iran U (atomic element 92).
I also think that we need to work towards breaking up Syria because homogeneous nations are far more stable than the Sykes-Picot balloony. Specifically, Alawites along the coast line, Christian Orthodox autonomy around Aleppo, Kurdistan in the north east, and Druze autonomy east to the Israeli Golan and "Jabel Druze". And let ISIS and the shiite (and you can remove one "i") kill each other. This means that Israel will have 2 allies (Druze and Kurdistan). BY THE WAY: the kurds in Iraq, led by Barazani in the 80s were a great allies of Israel.
Furthermore, Kurds are the largest minority in the world without a homeland (30M+ people). And they deserve a state far more than the invented nation of Palestine. Also, Erdogan, a known antisemite, is part of the muslim brothers and he yearns to revive the Ottoman rule in its 21st century form. And we cannot trust this antisemite.
Mike Doran feels vindicated because finally his pistachio induced allergy he chronically suffered from, had a major supply setback. Now his biases for coffee and nutella seem to be clouding his rational judgment. For a principled realist who cares about balance of power, It is quite unusual to be rooting for a regional power band-wagoning behind a relatively not so strong in-the-making regional hegemon, and in the process, sacrificing the descendants of "the sun Roj".
Assuming the region currently has 3 and a half powers(Turkey, Iran, Israel with the half being egypt+arabs) , under what international relations theory is it in the interest of Israel to form a strategic alliance with Turkey, especially with Iran on full retreat? Other than keep your enemy your best friend, why would you do that ? How can you balance against Turkey if you allow it quasi-ottoman influence in the region ? or a simpler question : how can you trust Turkey to know its limits in the new regional order, and not go full hegemon, get caught in the classic irrationalities of the region, and commit strategic suicide like Iran did ?
Isn't better for Israel to have some form of a balanced relationship with both Kurds and Turkey, as a form of checks and balances on the potential hegemony of Turkey ?
Morally: Do Kurds have or deserve any right of self-determination in Doran's worldview ? And how would you sell this argument in DC : let's offer an ethnic group that literally fought and died for us, as a make-up gift to an ally who's unsure about their relationship with us ?
On another note, I like Mike.
The PKK are to the Turks as Hezbollah and Hamas are to the Israelis. They are not just an ethnic group.
😮doran thinks erdigan is thinking something he isn't saying. That's rich.
Could you quit funding the Supreme Court?
מרוב שאני אוהב את מייק דוראן כמעט השתכנעתי שצריך לתמוך בטורקיה
either really really clueless or really really evil
one simple question in this complicated matter, who was and is behind barrack Obama????
Obviously who benefited the most, Iran!!
serious times demands strong but not to serious characters like you.......
Ugh! This comments section is the verge of worshipping you two. 1st of all, you guys are not that great, and secondly Rumble sucks, and actually UA-cam does too…
Thanks, Laura. We should not be worshipped, but we are as sane as possible under the circumstances.
doran isn't sharp on these things.
תרגום לעברית פליז
ulai...tistakel b'arutz ivri shelahem :-)
What does Mike think about the non-YPK Kurds that are in the northeastern section of Syria?