Become a Camel Crew member here: ua-cam.com/channels/r_DLep7UQ0B_IFhvTORu8A.htmljoin Download the highly requested 'An Introduction to Trading Cycles' PDF here: camel-finance.creator-spring.com/listing/an-introduction-to-trading-cyc?product=1227 Support my work here: www.buymeacoffee.com/camelfinance Send me something: Camel PO BOX 429 Barnstaple EX32 2LD England UK 10% off Tangem Cold wallet here: tangem.com/ (use code R5TH4Z at checkout) Trading View Charts: www.tradingview.com/gopro/?share_your_love=camelfinanceyt Get a Trezor Cold wallet here: affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=241&aff_id=31615 Buy PHYSICAL Gold & Silver here: www.tavexbullion.com Use code 'CAMELCREW22' to claim a discount on the following products: Gold: Seymour Unicorn 1oz Seymour Unicorn 1/4oz Beowulf 1oz Tavex 1g Bar 1oz Gold Britannia 1/2oz Gold Britannia 1/4oz Gold Britannia 1/10oz Britannia Silver: Britannia Liberty Silver Coin British Royal Arms Coins Australian Kookaburra Listen to the Camel finance theme tune here: suno.com/song/feb08cd8-dabe-4652-80e5-8d0cbca4cfee
Just got your cycles PDF. Truly appreciate all the time you put into teaching and making these videos. My trading game / macro analysis game has improved in a BIG way since I found your channel. Best / most realistic finance channel on all of UA-cam. Keep up the great work and thanks again. Gonna be joining level 3 soon too. Cheers!
I don't think that 2020 was an outlier so much as the new realm within which we might be living. That is the realm of hyper-liquidity, it's reflected everywhere. I could be wrong, but it's something to at least consider.
Recession doesn't automatically mean bear market. One example: Germany has been in a recession for 2 years now and yet the DE40 has printed new ATH and is about to print another one.
Failed cycle takes us out. Trendline break and cycle low to get back in Plus c19 was a 4 year cycle low that was overdue so we knew it was coming and would be violent and fast
Thanks Camel, enjoyed the update. Refinancing the debt will be needed and Currency devaluation, issuing debt by the money printer achieves that. But, there is a chance of repricing the book value of gold by Fed. Statuary rate currently: Value per oz currently $42.2222. Open market $2700 ish. In 1934 The Gold Reserve Act did just that… the result decrease in strength of dollar and increase in strength of Gold. Obviously the gold standard existed then but… you never know it’s a crazy world!
Last time we did qt the reverse repo broke and we printed, idk what else it takes to break the market besides it being drained. We’re doing harder qt, doesn’t it also make sense that printer is coming tho?
I agree we won’t have Covid again but in Sept of 2019 after using QT till the reverse repo broke the stock market was at ath and they transitioned to QE which gave us that nice gain going into Covid.. Again it wasn’t Covid bazooka, but didn’t the printers turn on
My bruh, put M1SL and M2SL tickers in your tradingview and see. They still keep printing in the background all this time. The last 12 months HAS BEEEN ALREADY QE !!! Greetings from the Czech Republic, sending lots of love, good memes indeed :D
Hey camel, great stuff as always. I have never bought gold or silver. I would like to acquire some and I see the link that you provided in the comments. Can you also buy and sell on this platform just as easy as any other trading platform?
Hi Jeff. That link gets you the lowest spot prices on the coins listed in the pinned comment / description. I do not get a kickback or anything from that link, other than to be able to offer camel crew members the lowest prices. If you are uk based and want to buy some physical metals that is one option. Selling physical metals is not as simple as selling etfs or metal derivative products. To sell physical you will need to go online, secure a quote, post the metal to the supplier, then they will pay you upon receipt at the original quoted price. This means physical is no where near as liquid. But it does carry no counterparty risk and certain British coins are CGT free upon sale. You’ll have to weigh up all of the pros and cons and see what suits you best. Here’s a summary of product types you can research: physical coins are CGT exempt and carry no counter party risk - physical bars gives you the lowest premium but are subject to CGT etfs give you instant exposure & liquidity, can be held in isa or sipp etc. but carry counterparty risk amongst other risks (tracking for example) and have fees for holding. mining stocks / etfs give you exposure and again can be held in isa / sipp to make them tax efficient but are more volatile and risky if not diversified derivatives (spreadbetting / cfds / futures / options etc) gives one exposure to exploit short term trades if you are more experienced but are more expensive and leveraged by nature so have a different set of risks, some are tax efficient such as spreadbetting, others are not. Cheers
agreed...but considering a huge part of the US Debt has to be rolled over this year sure makes you think they would love to have very low interest rates for that, so maybe we get an 'accidental' black swan type event to give them that opportunity
They probably do sit around and decide when the recession should start 😂. People think they want to see the printer but don't want to see everything get more expensive 😅
I have a question on this, your points are right. But with ‘we first need to pause, before even printing’ - wouldn’t all this happen insane quickly? The announce they pause (or when there are problems, even announce QE) but in both cases everyone piles into assets because they don’t want to miss the QE. still we can have -> crash -> QE -> up ofc But in video you talk like after a pause in QT there is a lot of time to react
Usually there is plenty of time to react I know I said we can jump on that opportunity if they move to a pause. But that’s only if the technical setups present at the time. I didn’t mean blindly jump into markets without using my system based solely on a headline. There is always time - never any need to rush
So I guess we got the daily cycle low wrong on btc, hopped on too early, put the stop loss in the wrong place, took a loss and now we don't have a safe enough entry and we're missing the pump?
There is no close below day 56 which means that could be the low with no true failed cycle Stop loss was run. That happens sometimes - but the trade prior was closed at the same time locking in profit from around 50k. And we are still holding spot. We are exposed to and catching the move via COIN, RIOT, WULF and HUT which are all outperforming bitcoin since the lows. Edit - typos
“The base case” from when Camel.. ?? from when the realization the entire American exceptionalism hangs on the markets, which translates to the dollar and DEBT.. Without the financial markets and the defacto global collateral of UST’s being heavily supported the “affordance” of anything less would indeed put into question this privilege.. you are not unreasonable but the market since 2008 has indeed been unreasonable lol.. When the world is paper you can’t afford any fires..
All very reasonable points. Interested in your thoughts on the strength of USD and whether that impacts QE/Liquidity? ie Lots of rumblings from incoming administration that the dollar is too strong and needs to be weakened. Not saying 'printer go brrr', but wondering if you think that grounds for some QE or injection of liquidity?
Given that the US is running very large post-WW2-esque deficits at a time when unemployment is low and the stock market is close to the ATH there is an argument that to say that a severe recession will be more painful to "ride out" than has been the case heretofore. I agree that expecting a prompt C19-type liquidity injection is unreasonable. However, I can see the Fed being forced to drop QT, resume QE and perhaps even engage in YCC measures. It will take something dire to prompt such a response though; and many market participants will not avoid significant losses in this type of scenario.
if gvts get bigger and bigger relative to the private sector/working class (and this happened and keeps happening) and if debt gets bigger and bigger relative to the GDP (and it happened and keeps happening) then we DO reach levels where they cannot afford a recession because at that point printing is the only option to fund gvts. unless they massivley cut spending (especially for them and the state apparatus) they cannot sustain the gvt in a recession because tax revenue dries up - and they can't afford that (at some point at least). it seems you ignore the public debt which was lower in prior recessions. just my 2 sats - i'm prepared for the worst though. to your point: when did you see a prior recession with global debt to gdp of 300%+? never... you're also in new territory
Monday 90K --> Friday 105K. Crazy markets? Trump trade? The two scenarios for next week are: 1) crypto executive orders and 4th angle or 2) anything else and correction.
2020 Australia Wildfire, Covid-19 2025 Los Angeles Wildfire, HMPV?? Interestingly it's scary if the past start to rhyme a bit doesn't it? I still wonder if live in a simulation.
I don't see how any of this argument is valid. The printer is not coming but the market is at the ath, I am bearish but long. Fellas, if you are in profit, just take it. It gets ridiculous by the day.
Thanks Camel. Epic memes 😂 I believe BTC and rest will make a top sometimes around 20 march. After that we are going to correct. The perception of the correction we be exponential and it is going to be called a Crash. The FED will slash rates an end QT. Even start QE and around October we are going to blow off top in the markets....
Money printer is inevitably coming just because of the enormous unpayable debt, nevermind the market. Maybe not short term or even medium term what ever that means, but its coming.
Hi Camel, appreciate your analysis, totally makes sense, and is reasonable. How long do you think the markets can run higher with the existing liquidity, before they drop?
Keep up the good work, spot on as always Camel. Must be hard to deal with all the people who don't understand that everyone is always the most single sided positive at the tops.(Which I personally hope are soon because I need to buy a new kitchen) 10 Oct, 4 Nov connecting the lows seems to explain a bit of the recent bitcoin price movement(using the coinbase chart).
A Camel…with diamonds in his eyes!! Masterclass content Mr Camel, thank you, needed this update on the wider picture. Maybe one for tomorrows base case review, but can you explain how or whether you still believe we might eventually see a deflationary bust this year or next, how might this play out is currently what fascinates my simply mind.
Hey Camel, your cycles pdf was a great read. Just wondering if a daily cycle is still considered failed if price at any given point wicks below but closes above? Also, if a half cycle inversion is observed, does that mean you restart your daily cycle count off the inversion? Maybe I'm overthinking it..
@ no, he specifically and repeatedly said, markets usually top after the first rate cut or two …. He’s been calling a top since last July. I follow along his videos daily. I never miss one. So, I was wondering what he thinks about it. I’d like to hear him address that …
My guess is people think the FED will cut rates sooner rather than later is because the dollar is too strong compared to other currencies which leads to problems with export. This combined with tariffs will lead to problems real quick. And since Trump seems hell bent on the tariffs, weaking the dollar may be the only way to soften the blow. Also everyone thinks the only way for America en Europe to pay off their debts is to weaken the currencies and make them worth less by causing a secondary wave of inflation. These are not my opinions or wishes by the way. I’m just trying to pass on what I’ve picked up on and understand why people are still so ‘risk on’ at all-time highs. I already took a lot of the table, because I don’t have the same confidence these people do. But conlusion is: the FED wouldn’t cut because the markets are 2% off all-time highs, they’d do it despite them being 2% off all-time highs, leading to the supercycle everyone has been speculating about.
When do you think the btc/au pair will top to rotate out of btc? I keep hearing about capital rotation from stocks and bonds to gold and commodities. I wonder if btc will have a bear market or be treated as commodity, pm or risk off asset
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Single best financial channel to follow. Incredible video!
thanks!
100% - Camel is the GOAT.
lol, your example of “they” sit in a room and say…” engage recession “ 😂😂😂😂 classic
Just got your cycles PDF. Truly appreciate all the time you put into teaching and making these videos. My trading game / macro analysis game has improved in a BIG way since I found your channel. Best / most realistic finance channel on all of UA-cam. Keep up the great work and thanks again. Gonna be joining level 3 soon too. Cheers!
Camel remains my primary money printer.
Thank you, Camel! You’re the best!
Thanks
Cheers! Thanks for the update , Camel ! 😀
Great episode, thanks for explaining the topic. Best wishes to you too!
Thanks Camel, you the man.
Always nice to ear you Camel! Thanks, Cheers!
I made it to the end. Have a great weekend everyone.
Amazing analysis again, thanks
Everytime I heard the word " Darkroom " I cracked up XD Lmao
I don't think that 2020 was an outlier so much as the new realm within which we might be living. That is the realm of hyper-liquidity, it's reflected everywhere.
I could be wrong, but it's something to at least consider.
Good job
Recession doesn't automatically mean bear market. One example: Germany has been in a recession for 2 years now and yet the DE40 has printed new ATH and is about to print another one.
Loved the vid. Thanks Camel
My pleasure!
Right on Camel...right on
Are we still chopping sideways for 2 months?
Every day with SONY432R is filled with anticipation.
Printer is coming, saw it on TikTok
I do agree though markets will crash before.
Sterling performance as usual 👍🏻
cheers Camel
Cheers John
Camel, how did you trade covid? Did your system do okay with the 3 levels?
Failed cycle takes us out. Trendline break and cycle low to get back in
Plus c19 was a 4 year cycle low that was overdue so we knew it was coming and would be violent and fast
I think we all understand that fiat is in a parabolic inflationary trap.
wild times !
So what I'm hearing is, the printer isn't coming but the markets don't care :D
Works for me!
Lol I doubt 95% of ppl in comments understand this more than camel
Also I think it’s important to note that even though Btc is at 105k, it’s purchasing power is less than it was last cycle top at around 69k.
Great video!
Thanks Camel, enjoyed the update. Refinancing the debt will be needed and Currency devaluation, issuing debt by the money printer achieves that. But, there is a chance of repricing the book value of gold by Fed. Statuary rate currently: Value per oz currently $42.2222. Open market $2700 ish. In 1934 The Gold Reserve Act did just that… the result decrease in strength of dollar and increase in strength of Gold. Obviously the gold standard existed then but… you never know it’s a crazy world!
my suspicion is it will be a combo of both with ~20k gold and some fiat debasement. time will tell. Cheers!
Let's enjoy the ride 🥂
Its a world printer. Not just North America 💵💴💶💷📈
We BREAKING OUT like Swing out Sister!
When is your btc entry ? Is it better to wait to just before market close above 103k? Or to wait for ATH break?
positioned via miners - will update tomorrow in the members vid
Hey Camel, sorry if im missing something, dont we need to print to pay off the debt?
Not exactly. They can revalue gold. Amongst other things
They will likely print tho - just not until late 2026 imo
Last time we did qt the reverse repo broke and we printed, idk what else it takes to break the market besides it being drained. We’re doing harder qt, doesn’t it also make sense that printer is coming tho?
I agree we won’t have Covid again but in Sept of 2019 after using QT till the reverse repo broke the stock market was at ath and they transitioned to QE which gave us that nice gain going into Covid.. Again it wasn’t Covid bazooka, but didn’t the printers turn on
Is it wise to add on IN LONG POSITION in BTC or wait for little fall.
I’ll update members tomorrow
Early left translated half cycle low instead of day 70 cycle low perhaps?
So if you bought Btc at 69k last cycle and hodl to 108k this cycle… you are actually worse off…
The camel crew bought the lows bro. Go back and see for yourself
damn, btc at 104k rn
Camel crew!
My bruh, put M1SL and M2SL tickers in your tradingview and see. They still keep printing in the background all this time. The last 12 months HAS BEEEN ALREADY QE !!! Greetings from the Czech Republic, sending lots of love, good memes indeed :D
Lol they can increase without printing as much of those are deposits and mmfs etc.
No way are they going to start printing with inflation creeping up.
Hey camel, great stuff as always. I have never bought gold or silver. I would like to acquire some and I see the link that you provided in the comments. Can you also buy and sell on this platform just as easy as any other trading platform?
Hi Jeff.
That link gets you the lowest spot prices on the coins listed in the pinned comment / description. I do not get a kickback or anything from that link, other than to be able to offer camel crew members the lowest prices.
If you are uk based and want to buy some physical metals that is one option.
Selling physical metals is not as simple as selling etfs or metal derivative products.
To sell physical you will need to go online, secure a quote, post the metal to the supplier, then they will pay you upon receipt at the original quoted price. This means physical is no where near as liquid. But it does carry no counterparty risk and certain British coins are CGT free upon sale.
You’ll have to weigh up all of the pros and cons and see what suits you best.
Here’s a summary of product types you can research:
physical coins are CGT exempt and carry no counter party risk - physical bars gives you the lowest premium but are subject to CGT
etfs give you instant exposure & liquidity, can be held in isa or sipp etc. but carry counterparty risk amongst other risks (tracking for example) and have fees for holding.
mining stocks / etfs give you exposure and again can be held in isa / sipp to make them tax efficient but are more volatile and risky if not diversified
derivatives (spreadbetting / cfds / futures / options etc) gives one exposure to exploit short term trades if you are more experienced but are more expensive and leveraged by nature so have a different set of risks, some are tax efficient such as spreadbetting, others are not.
Cheers
agreed...but considering a huge part of the US Debt has to be rolled over this year sure makes you think they would love to have very low interest rates for that, so maybe we get an 'accidental' black swan type event to give them that opportunity
They probably do sit around and decide when the recession should start 😂. People think they want to see the printer but don't want to see everything get more expensive 😅
I have a question on this, your points are right.
But with ‘we first need to pause, before even printing’ - wouldn’t all this happen insane quickly?
The announce they pause (or when there are problems, even announce QE) but in both cases everyone piles into assets because they don’t want to miss the QE.
still we can have -> crash -> QE -> up ofc
But in video you talk like after a pause in QT there is a lot of time to react
Usually there is plenty of time to react
I know I said we can jump on that opportunity if they move to a pause. But that’s only if the technical setups present at the time. I didn’t mean blindly jump into markets without using my system based solely on a headline.
There is always time - never any need to rush
So I guess we got the daily cycle low wrong on btc, hopped on too early, put the stop loss in the wrong place, took a loss and now we don't have a safe enough entry and we're missing the pump?
Maybe you got it right, but conditions create an unexpected outcome.
There is no close below day 56 which means that could be the low with no true failed cycle
Stop loss was run. That happens sometimes - but the trade prior was closed at the same time locking in profit from around 50k. And we are still holding spot.
We are exposed to and catching the move via COIN, RIOT, WULF and HUT which are all outperforming bitcoin since the lows.
Edit - typos
why is it acceptable to spout and regurgitate? ... thats the internet baby ☠. Just listen to Camel IYKYK
Camel, look at every time a "virus" outbreak happened over the years. Out of like 3 or 4 times, they always V recover.
There has only been 1
Agree, I think JP is very stubborn on the 2% figure. Its healthier for the economy to run a Gov deficit than to run straight to printer.
“The base case” from when Camel.. ??
from when the realization the entire American exceptionalism hangs on the markets, which translates to the dollar and DEBT..
Without the financial markets and the defacto global collateral of UST’s being heavily supported the “affordance” of anything less would indeed put into question this privilege..
you are not unreasonable but the market since 2008 has indeed been unreasonable lol..
When the world is paper you can’t afford any fires..
What about members that only trade crypto tho... Should we look for longs?
up to you
Camel, eyes on miners please 👀
It might print but the 2 years of global economic downturn before any positive impact from it are gonna suck.
All very reasonable points. Interested in your thoughts on the strength of USD and whether that impacts QE/Liquidity? ie Lots of rumblings from incoming administration that the dollar is too strong and needs to be weakened. Not saying 'printer go brrr', but wondering if you think that grounds for some QE or injection of liquidity?
Strong Dxy tightens liq.
They can lower it without true qe though. Time will tell. I suspect trump will want a weaker dollar
Think printer already arrived heneevwhy bond yields went down everywhere.
Its the debt market that counts not stocks
Given that the US is running very large post-WW2-esque deficits at a time when unemployment is low and the stock market is close to the ATH there is an argument that to say that a severe recession will be more painful to "ride out" than has been the case heretofore. I agree that expecting a prompt C19-type liquidity injection is unreasonable. However, I can see the Fed being forced to drop QT, resume QE and perhaps even engage in YCC measures. It will take something dire to prompt such a response though; and many market participants will not avoid significant losses in this type of scenario.
I agree - I just think the QE and YCC will take many months to show - time will tell. Cheers
BTC/GBP new ATH
The printer never stops 💴💴💴💶💶💶💷💷💷💵💵💵
Hi dear BTC crossed 102 k line, its correct time to add on or wait for rebound around 90-92 k, your suggestion matters alot
I am not adding here as I am positioned via crypto stocks
When America spends more then it brings in with Taxes it prints Dollars on a data base. ( A lot of $$$ )
if gvts get bigger and bigger relative to the private sector/working class (and this happened and keeps happening) and if debt gets bigger and bigger relative to the GDP (and it happened and keeps happening) then we DO reach levels where they cannot afford a recession because at that point printing is the only option to fund gvts. unless they massivley cut spending (especially for them and the state apparatus) they cannot sustain the gvt in a recession because tax revenue dries up - and they can't afford that (at some point at least). it seems you ignore the public debt which was lower in prior recessions. just my 2 sats - i'm prepared for the worst though. to your point: when did you see a prior recession with global debt to gdp of 300%+? never... you're also in new territory
the break out has happened!
Monday 90K --> Friday 105K. Crazy markets? Trump trade? The two scenarios for next week are: 1) crypto executive orders and 4th angle or 2) anything else and correction.
Camel your knowledge gave me so much!! thank you bro, thank you for living !
Love your realistic point of view on the market.
03:30 - maybe it is part of the "new normal", they repeated over and over?
Hi Camel, planning to go long on BTC if and when a true breakout is confirmed? Cheers!
2020 Australia Wildfire, Covid-19
2025 Los Angeles Wildfire, HMPV??
Interestingly it's scary if the past start to rhyme a bit doesn't it? I still wonder if live in a simulation.
Why i said that? Well i got infected with HMPV i live in SEA. It's very very contagious. Still recovering.
@@Heqvypraying for a recovery ❤️ peace be with you
Happy Friday to the crew
The 102k you are looking for is done and dusted 😊
Thanks for this macro update!
I don't see how any of this argument is valid. The printer is not coming but the market is at the ath, I am bearish but long. Fellas, if you are in profit, just take it. It gets ridiculous by the day.
It has happened in the face of QT because markets are forward looking and pump based on the future market participants deem most likely.
Thanks Camel. Epic memes 😂
I believe BTC and rest will make a top sometimes around 20 march. After that we are going to correct. The perception of the correction we be exponential and it is going to be called a Crash. The FED will slash rates an end QT. Even start QE and around October we are going to blow off top in the markets....
❤ dayumm!!! What a video! ....best Business Camel video yet. Putting the data together like a champ
Thanks Camel
Money printer is inevitably coming just because of the enormous unpayable debt, nevermind the market. Maybe not short term or even medium term what ever that means, but its coming.
How would people survive with the worsening inflation and cost of living. There will be riots
No shit
Agreed. Printer is coming, and soon. And for this reason, nothing to do with markets.
Did you not watch the video?
Why does the unpayable debt mean the printer is coming?
Money printing increases the debt because other countries buy more bonds to facilitate it.
Hi Camel, appreciate your analysis, totally makes sense, and is reasonable.
How long do you think the markets can run higher with the existing liquidity, before they drop?
What did you mean when you said gold price is central bank driven? Sorry I didn't understand what you meant there.
central banks are buying the gold and making it more expensive since that is how they are going to fix the debt issue
@camelfinance I don't know why I didn't put that together. Call me captain obvious lol. Thanks for taking the time.
Keep up the good work, spot on as always Camel.
Must be hard to deal with all the people who don't understand that everyone is always the most single sided positive at the tops.(Which I personally hope are soon because I need to buy a new kitchen)
10 Oct, 4 Nov connecting the lows seems to explain a bit of the recent bitcoin price movement(using the coinbase chart).
I dig it. Thanks.
Were the stop losses earlier suggested around 90k triggered, and if so is the argument to re-allocate or wait?
💲🐪🐪💲
A Camel…with diamonds in his eyes!!
Masterclass content Mr Camel, thank you, needed this update on the wider picture.
Maybe one for tomorrows base case review, but can you explain how or whether you still believe we might eventually see a deflationary bust this year or next, how might this play out is currently what fascinates my simply mind.
Do level 3 members get their own videos with your trade set ups live time?
yes they get their own vids and live notifications of my entries with exact levels for entry and stop loss
Hey Camel, your cycles pdf was a great read. Just wondering if a daily cycle is still considered failed if price at any given point wicks below but closes above? Also, if a half cycle inversion is observed, does that mean you restart your daily cycle count off the inversion? Maybe I'm overthinking it..
You were heavily saying, markets top after 1 or 2 rate cuts …. What are your thoughts on that now ?????
he was actually saying markets usually withstand the first 1-2 cuts.
also we had 3 and the stocks lost their 3rd angles and are yet to recover them.
@ no, he specifically and repeatedly said, markets usually top after the first rate cut or two …. He’s been calling a top since last July. I follow along his videos daily. I never miss one. So, I was wondering what he thinks about it. I’d like to hear him address that …
That intro was hella funny wth is that clip 😂
Hi uncle 🐫... if we got a day 70 dcl, then it will be reasonable to expect the next dcl on March 14th Purim lunar eclipse festival ritual?
Thanks!!
if day 70, we reset the count from that low on day 70 and expect the next low 60 after +/-6 days
And on the Macro front ; T is coming.....
Cheers camel.
Great stuff as usual, Camel. Thanks ! Hoping to re-enter BTC as and when we stabilise above 102.5K.
LETS GO CAMEL!
My guess is people think the FED will cut rates sooner rather than later is because the dollar is too strong compared to other currencies which leads to problems with export. This combined with tariffs will lead to problems real quick. And since Trump seems hell bent on the tariffs, weaking the dollar may be the only way to soften the blow.
Also everyone thinks the only way for America en Europe to pay off their debts is to weaken the currencies and make them worth less by causing a secondary wave of inflation.
These are not my opinions or wishes by the way. I’m just trying to pass on what I’ve picked up on and understand why people are still so ‘risk on’ at all-time highs. I already took a lot of the table, because I don’t have the same confidence these people do.
But conlusion is: the FED wouldn’t cut because the markets are 2% off all-time highs, they’d do it despite them being 2% off all-time highs, leading to the supercycle everyone has been speculating about.
VIX is starting to look very tasty - how far away is it from your buy zone?
Agreed. It's close
quite far
When do you think the btc/au pair will top to rotate out of btc? I keep hearing about capital rotation from stocks and bonds to gold and commodities. I wonder if btc will have a bear market or be treated as commodity, pm or risk off asset