All the early analyses are focused on Oregon's offense -- but Oregon can win a 17-9-type game here if they have to. Oregon has a top-5 D-line in the country; Derrick Harmon and Ja'maree Caldwell on the inside, and Mataeo Uiagalelei and Jordan Burch on the edges are going to cause problems for Penn State.
Look, like PSU, OR has played one good team - OSU… and OR allowed 30 pts to OSU. PSU gave up 20 pts to the Suckeyes - only 6 in the 2nd half. Both teams have grown since they played OSU, so it’s hard to gauge how they’ll do against each other. Key point for me is whether the PSU D line will get pressure on Gabriel early… they are 9 deep and very tough & disciplined.
It's so funny when people just pick out specific games then push a narrative. I have no doubt Oregon is capable of winning this game by 10, but so is Penn State. If you're gonna mention moving the ball vs Michigan, I'll just mention that they only scored 16 vs Wisconsin.
It would have been very interesting if Michigan and PSU would have played each other. I think PSU would have won. But it would have been interesting see those two teams battle it out on the line of scrimmage. I think we would know a little more about PSU today.
The Vegas line is accurate and could go either way. Keep in mind that PSU already been battle tested on the road several times and lost to ohio state on mistakes. Nor here or there but it’s going to be a good game. Fingers crossed for a super competitive matchup.
I'm so old. I remember Penn St beating Oregon in the 94 rose bowl. It was devastating. Screw the lions. Also, their town is a piece of crap. I couldn't find weed the one night I partied there. 😊
That was the first Oregon game I watched. I remember the palpable excitement at school; the whole town was just super excited to see the Ducks playing in the Rose Bowl.
@@SS-vi9sj The first Rose bowl the Oregon Ducks played in was the 1916 Rose Bowl against the Pennsylvania Quakers. Then they played Penn State in 1994. They also played Ohio State in the 1957 Rose Bowl and Harvard in the 1917 Rose Bowl. It is difficult to pressure Oregon's QB because he is very mobile. elusive and they roll him out if their line is porous.
Penn Stare fan and season ticket holder here. Penn State will initially forget all their progress they've made all season, and pretend it's like it's week 1 for the first quarter to half of the game, then suddenly remember that they are in the Big Ten Playoff against Oregon. Maybe pick up the optempo and effectively unleash some new unused plays to play catchup against Oregon. Defense will do their best job effectively as always. Offense will have frequent 3 and outs, and cause the Defense to wear down. Penn State will still be playing catch up with Oregon. It'll suddenly be 10 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter, PSU will be down by 15 points..maybe get a field goal, and Oregon will slowly control the ball for the remainder of the game and bleed the clock. Oregon will play smart and pick apart all the reoccurring strategy that PSU repeatedly used all season, that's now on video. That's how they'll play and hopefully I'm wrong.
Scoreboard watching. Penn state chose to run the ball every single play Because they couldn’t stop it. That was when AK was keeping the playbook vanilla. Oregon gave up way more yards to Illinois then they did
It's going to be a fantastic game, both defenses are elite, literally!!!! My Nittany Lions 🦁 are going to pull off the upset 27-24 with a game winning field goal!!!! WE ARE
Duck fan here: Absolutely love your stats here!!.. Also, Love Penn St and the passion of their fans Congrats - Glad you're not Ohio (those fans will shoot and kill their own wounded)! On paper, this is a very evenly matched game.. My prediction is at the end of this overview. This game will be competitive in its beginning.
PENN STATE: I expect Penn St to have some success in the run game early (Oregon usually catches up and figures teams out by the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and will eventually shut down the run game). I also expect Penn St to pass often past Oregon’s secondary (there are some vulnerabilities there), this will be their best way to take down Oregon - and Penn St’s passing average is better than Oregon’s. Drew Allar: 207 passing completions @ 71% _Rank #37 (not bad) this means he relies on his pass. Penn state does well defending against 6 game winning teams but struggles creating a point spread against opponents with 7 game wins and over.. [1 win and 1 loss against ranked teams] Penn St = 362 total tackles and 32 sacks for the season (Average 19.25 pt spreads on away games). Penn St’s defense is among the best, I’m not convinced they will be able to overcome the best Offensive line in the country and hence not stop the Oregon offense as the game carries into the second half. OREGON: I expect Oregon come out running the ball - and testing the defense’s discipline - they will test Penn with the war of attrition.. this is the Oregon way (no huddle, hurry up and uptempo offense) Oregon = 665 total tackles and 39 sacks for the season-[10 sacks came in the last game]. (Average away win spread = 23 pts). [3 wins against ranked opponents]. Oregon will have the speed edge playing in a comfy stadium.. Tez Johnson (WR) is back .. AND we now have a healthy Jordan Burch (DE), Terrence Ferguson (TE) as well as Tez - back and rested - they showed their style of truth against Washington. I don’t expect Jordan James not to be looking to crack someone in the mouth.. As long as Dillon Gabriel stays steady and rides the atmosphere - Oregon should win ‘handily’. Dillon Gabriel: 275 passing completions at 73.5%_Rank #10 (best completion % in the country) due to his vision/confidence. Let's not forget (easily dismissed by most commentators) - Oregon's Offensive line is top notch and Penn st needs to get to Dillon to be effective - This will not be as easy as Penn St thinks! CONCLUSION: Oregon's Dan Lanning will win the psychological war here and out-coach Penn's coaches - He will be ready! Oregon’s ‘consistent’ defense has been phenomenal and will be the game changer.. Oregon’s defense will come after QB Drew Allar often and with ill intent to win this game - very likely leaving Penn St’s Drew Allar too shaken to be pertinent. Also, Penn St probably will not be able to stop the Oregon run game, and if left unchallenged - Oregon’s offense will run up the score. 16-38 Oregon
What has Oregon done against the best defenses they've faced? They scored over 30 points both times. What did Penn State do the only time they played a defense around the level of Oregon's? They scored 13. This isn't an emotional game for the Ducks. It's a business trip. P.S. Did you just say Dillon Gabriel doesn't have a strong arm? Okay bud.
Why is everyone so surprised and reluctant to accept that its closer on paper than they thought on both h sides if the ball? It shouldn't be surprising that an 11-1 team looks good in the analytics.
The most important player in this game could be Abdul Carter, if he starts to get to Dillon I believe that The Nittany Lions have the tools to win and barring any QB play breakdown or too many turnovers they should pull out the win.
If the defenses are about equal like you said under another comment, there's not really any chance of this going Penn States way. Because Oregon unquestionably has the better offense. Against the best defenses they've played, they've put up points. I don't see how Penn State does what Ohio State and Michigan couldn't.
@@kyletucker3811 I agree it all sounds nuts but I just look at the FPI and agree with that assessment , these two teams are actually on paper a little closer than most people believe which is crazy, can't wait to watch it , how about you ?
Vegas is the litmus test when it comes down to it. Never under estimate the Vegas spread. They are damn accurate all the time. It will be a close game, any team can win.
you are right about not having a repeat on teams playing each other. the powers that be for the playoffs need to be sure of that also. collage ball playoff is for the fans, let us see new match ups ,, thanks
Agreed, unfortunately the viewer is typically the last person on the mind of the powers that be. I am excited for this playoff though. 🙌 thanks for watching
PSU will not be able to keep up with Oregon's physicality. Oregon soundly handled Michigan in The Big House and the score against OSU does not represent the game whatsoever. And if you actually watch the OSU game in Autzen, OSU actually played some of their best ball all year... Oregon just outplayed them. OSU has had a bit of an identity crisis since then and Michigan exposed that. I expect the first half to be a ball game, but after halftime Oregon is going to pull away and PSU will be demoralized. 27-17 Oregon
I definitely feel like that is the best we have seen from OSU. I can't see Penn States offense putting up enough points to win here. Penn State defense would need to play their very best game of the year. Thanks for watching and good luck this weekend. We are going to break this one down in entirety tomorrow night 8 E, come join us.
Oregon beat osu not even playing a solid game and Ohio played good/smart/better than the ducks and still lost, after that game I knew osu would not be in the big 10 championship 😂😂
This whole video sounds like one big rationalization attempt to predict PSU. Just get it over with and put your pick on PSU. I feel like I'm watching Jack Nicholson at the bar in the "The Shining" and I'm the the bartender.
Holy Crap, I want what you are smoking. "Oregon's offense is slightly better then Penn States Offense. Penn States defense is slightly better then Oregon's defense." You forget that the Ducks tend to coast in the ENTIRE second half whereas Penn State has had to fight tooth and nail. It's obvious you are only looking at stats and not at games. Go watch the games, both Penn State and Oregon and then come back and give a knowledgeable opinion. Penn State didn't score a single offensive TD against tOSU and the Ducks hung the most points of any team this season on the Bucks. The Ducks are rested and healthy and I kind of pity PSU. I see the Ducks 39-13.
Because Idaho is a better team than people give them credit for, they are 10-2 overall And people said the same thing about Boise and look where they are. Sounds to me like they didn't take either one of those teams seriously at the beginning of the season.
@ Idaho football is a FCS team and plays a schedule that reflects that. The fact that they are 10-2 in a lower division of football doesn’t mean anything. If Oregon is as dominant as everyone says they are it shouldn’t even have been a game.
@@SoapTheFox I’m not disagreeing that every other team has a loss. I’m just saying Oregon isn’t the almighty like everyone thinks they are. They are capable of losing just like every other team
Penn State has no passing attack other than Warren. Oregon has a stable of receivers. PSU has no real running game except the qb. Oregon has 2 running backs that like to run over people. Oregon’s Defense had 10 sacks and 16 TFL Saturday. Han the kittens 🐈⬛ done that this season?
@ but you didn’t answer the question. Btw I wanted you all to beat OSU because even though you love your team you all aren’t quite as obnoxious as buckeye or wolverine fans
The only thing that really concerns me for Oregon is facing PSU's DLine with Abdul Carter coming off the edge. It's a type of pass rush that I don't think Oregon has faced yet, even against OSU and Michigan. But that is the only thing. I think Oregon will be well prepared for PSU's overall physical style of play and Tyler Warren.
Just shut up!! Both of you couldn’t turn a door knob!! Don’t know if Oregon can beat Penn State!!! 🤣🤣🤣! Oregon has just ran through the big bad BIG 10!!! Penn State is next!
All the early analyses are focused on Oregon's offense -- but Oregon can win a 17-9-type game here if they have to. Oregon has a top-5 D-line in the country; Derrick Harmon and Ja'maree Caldwell on the inside, and Mataeo Uiagalelei and Jordan Burch on the edges are going to cause problems for Penn State.
The defenses are very close to the same, this could be interesting
Penn will be reduced to a running team and not score enough points.
@@sonofrobert You could be right but you could be wrong too
@josephconfer5924 Anything can happen.
Penn states is better
Look, like PSU, OR has played one good team - OSU… and OR allowed 30 pts to OSU.
PSU gave up 20 pts to the Suckeyes - only 6 in the 2nd half.
Both teams have grown since they played OSU, so it’s hard to gauge how they’ll do against each other.
Key point for me is whether the PSU D line will get pressure on Gabriel early… they are 9 deep and very tough & disciplined.
Oregon moved the ball with ease against Michigan in the big house. I think Oregon wins this game by 10.
It's so funny when people just pick out specific games then push a narrative. I have no doubt Oregon is capable of winning this game by 10, but so is Penn State. If you're gonna mention moving the ball vs Michigan, I'll just mention that they only scored 16 vs Wisconsin.
@@stretch141000 Then i will mention that we beat the team you lost too. See how that works. Now it's your turn.
I agree. I don't understand why the line is 3.5 right now I feel like it should be more like 6 or 7 at least.
It would have been very interesting if Michigan and PSU would have played each other. I think PSU would have won. But it would have been interesting see those two teams battle it out on the line of scrimmage. I think we would know a little more about PSU today.
@@alta58043 your right, but let's be honest here, Ohio State should have won that game. If you watched the game, it was obvious.
The Vegas line is accurate and could go either way. Keep in mind that PSU already been battle tested on the road several times and lost to ohio state on mistakes. Nor here or there but it’s going to be a good game. Fingers crossed for a super competitive matchup.
I'm so old. I remember Penn St beating Oregon in the 94 rose bowl. It was devastating. Screw the lions. Also, their town is a piece of crap. I couldn't find weed the one night I partied there. 😊
I remember 94 too. I hope we dog walk the kitties
That was the first Oregon game I watched. I remember the palpable excitement at school; the whole town was just super excited to see the Ducks playing in the Rose Bowl.
@@SS-vi9sj The first Rose bowl the Oregon Ducks played in was the 1916 Rose Bowl against the Pennsylvania Quakers. Then they played Penn State in 1994. They also played Ohio State in the 1957 Rose Bowl and Harvard in the 1917 Rose Bowl. It is difficult to pressure Oregon's QB because he is very mobile. elusive and they roll him out if their line is porous.
I remember that too. Ki Jana Carter was tough.
Penn Stare fan and season ticket holder here. Penn State will initially forget all their progress they've made all season, and pretend it's like it's week 1 for the first quarter to half of the game, then suddenly remember that they are in the Big Ten Playoff against Oregon. Maybe pick up the optempo and effectively unleash some new unused plays to play catchup against Oregon.
Defense will do their best job effectively as always. Offense will have frequent 3 and outs, and cause the Defense to wear down. Penn State will still be playing catch up with Oregon. It'll suddenly be 10 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter, PSU will be down by 15 points..maybe get a field goal, and Oregon will slowly control the ball for the remainder of the game and bleed the clock. Oregon will play smart and pick apart all the reoccurring strategy that PSU repeatedly used all season, that's now on video. That's how they'll play and hopefully I'm wrong.
Hmm their only win over a ranked team was UI by 2 tds.
Ducks 38 - 24
Agreed, i do not love their resume. Or indianas for that matter.
Scoreboard watching. Penn state chose to run the ball every single play Because they couldn’t stop it. That was when AK was keeping the playbook vanilla. Oregon gave up way more yards to Illinois then they did
Oregon almost lost three games this year
It's going to be a fantastic game, both defenses are elite, literally!!!! My Nittany Lions 🦁 are going to pull off the upset 27-24 with a game winning field goal!!!! WE ARE
Jesus what a clown 😂😂😂😂
We are!
Duck fan here: Absolutely love your stats here!!.. Also, Love Penn St and the passion of their fans Congrats - Glad you're not Ohio (those fans will shoot and kill their own wounded)!
On paper, this is a very evenly matched game.. My prediction is at the end of this overview. This game will be competitive in its beginning.
PENN STATE: I expect Penn St to have some success in the run game early (Oregon usually catches up and figures teams out by the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and will eventually shut down the run game). I also expect Penn St to pass often past Oregon’s secondary (there are some vulnerabilities there), this will be their best way to take down Oregon - and Penn St’s passing average is better than Oregon’s. Drew Allar: 207 passing completions @ 71% _Rank #37 (not bad) this means he relies on his pass.
Penn state does well defending against 6 game winning teams but struggles creating a point spread against opponents with 7 game wins and over.. [1 win and 1 loss against ranked teams]
Penn St = 362 total tackles and 32 sacks for the season (Average 19.25 pt spreads on away games). Penn St’s defense is among the best, I’m not convinced they will be able to overcome the best Offensive line in the country and hence not stop the Oregon offense as the game carries into the second half.
OREGON: I expect Oregon come out running the ball - and testing the defense’s discipline - they will test Penn with the war of attrition.. this is the Oregon way (no huddle, hurry up and uptempo offense)
Oregon = 665 total tackles and 39 sacks for the season-[10 sacks came in the last game]. (Average away win spread = 23 pts). [3 wins against ranked opponents]. Oregon will have the speed edge playing in a comfy stadium..
Tez Johnson (WR) is back .. AND we now have a healthy Jordan Burch (DE), Terrence Ferguson (TE) as well as Tez - back and rested - they showed their style of truth against Washington. I don’t expect Jordan James not to be looking to crack someone in the mouth.. As long as Dillon Gabriel stays steady and rides the atmosphere - Oregon should win ‘handily’. Dillon Gabriel: 275 passing completions at 73.5%_Rank #10 (best completion % in the country) due to his vision/confidence.
Let's not forget (easily dismissed by most commentators) - Oregon's Offensive line is top notch and Penn st needs to get to Dillon to be effective - This will not be as easy as Penn St thinks!
CONCLUSION: Oregon's Dan Lanning will win the psychological war here and out-coach Penn's coaches - He will be ready!
Oregon’s ‘consistent’ defense has been phenomenal and will be the game changer.. Oregon’s defense will come after QB Drew Allar often and with ill intent to win this game - very likely leaving Penn St’s Drew Allar too shaken to be pertinent. Also, Penn St probably will not be able to stop the Oregon run game, and if left unchallenged - Oregon’s offense will run up the score.
16-38 Oregon
What has Oregon done against the best defenses they've faced? They scored over 30 points both times. What did Penn State do the only time they played a defense around the level of Oregon's? They scored 13. This isn't an emotional game for the Ducks. It's a business trip.
P.S. Did you just say Dillon Gabriel doesn't have a strong arm? Okay bud.
Very true, and thats why the ducks are favored. Known fact that dillon gabriel has an average strength arm.
😂😂 Dillion drops dimes 😂😂 ask Ohio, stewie exposed the first round db draftee in the country 😂😂 oregon has a million ways to kill Penn st, chose 1 😂😂😂
@cubegamer1210 never said he wasn't a good qb.
There is no way on earth this guy said Penn State has a better defense than Oregon 😂 VERY bold statement, cotton.
Why is everyone so surprised and reluctant to accept that its closer on paper than they thought on both h sides if the ball? It shouldn't be surprising that an 11-1 team looks good in the analytics.
Oregon has a PAC12 offense and an SEC defense. Good luck. GO DUCKS
Definitely look like the most complete team right now. Best of luck this weekend.
Georgia West
The most important player in this game could be Abdul Carter, if he starts to get to Dillon I believe that The Nittany Lions have the tools to win and barring any QB play breakdown or too many turnovers they should pull out the win.
If the defenses are about equal like you said under another comment, there's not really any chance of this going Penn States way. Because Oregon unquestionably has the better offense. Against the best defenses they've played, they've put up points. I don't see how Penn State does what Ohio State and Michigan couldn't.
@@kyletucker3811 I agree it all sounds nuts but I just look at the FPI and agree with that assessment , these two teams are actually on paper a little closer than most people believe which is crazy, can't wait to watch it , how about you ?
A lot of people seem to think so... Only -3.5 ducks.... But that's way, way too low.
I think they are giving Penn 3.5 for home field advantage.
Vegas is the litmus test when it comes down to it. Never under estimate the Vegas spread. They are damn accurate all the time. It will be a close game, any team can win.
you are right about not having a repeat on teams playing each other.
the powers that be for the playoffs need to be sure of that also.
collage ball playoff is for the fans, let us see new match ups ,, thanks
Agreed, unfortunately the viewer is typically the last person on the mind of the powers that be. I am excited for this playoff though. 🙌 thanks for watching
@@1st_LONG_CFB take care. fun week end coming up
PSU had a harder schedule
Ducks going to Skull drag the Baby lions
It’s gonna be a rose bowl redemption for the Oregon trues!!
FEBU!!! It’s duck season, we got this ☝️ Sco ducks!!!
PSU will not be able to keep up with Oregon's physicality. Oregon soundly handled Michigan in The Big House and the score against OSU does not represent the game whatsoever. And if you actually watch the OSU game in Autzen, OSU actually played some of their best ball all year... Oregon just outplayed them. OSU has had a bit of an identity crisis since then and Michigan exposed that. I expect the first half to be a ball game, but after halftime Oregon is going to pull away and PSU will be demoralized. 27-17 Oregon
I definitely feel like that is the best we have seen from OSU. I can't see Penn States offense putting up enough points to win here. Penn State defense would need to play their very best game of the year. Thanks for watching and good luck this weekend. We are going to break this one down in entirety tomorrow night 8 E, come join us.
Oregon beat osu not even playing a solid game and Ohio played good/smart/better than the ducks and still lost, after that game I knew osu would not be in the big 10 championship 😂😂
This whole video sounds like one big rationalization attempt to predict PSU. Just get it over with and put your pick on PSU. I feel like I'm watching Jack Nicholson at the bar in the "The Shining" and I'm the the bartender.
Holy Crap, I want what you are smoking. "Oregon's offense is slightly better then Penn States Offense. Penn States defense is slightly better then Oregon's defense." You forget that the Ducks tend to coast in the ENTIRE second half whereas Penn State has had to fight tooth and nail. It's obvious you are only looking at stats and not at games. Go watch the games, both Penn State and Oregon and then come back and give a knowledgeable opinion. Penn State didn't score a single offensive TD against tOSU and the Ducks hung the most points of any team this season on the Bucks. The Ducks are rested and healthy and I kind of pity PSU. I see the Ducks 39-13.
Why did Oregon almost loss to Idaho
Because Idaho is a better team than people give them credit for, they are 10-2 overall
And people said the same thing about Boise and look where they are.
Sounds to me like they didn't take either one of those teams seriously at the beginning of the season.
@ Idaho football is a FCS team and plays a schedule that reflects that. The fact that they are 10-2 in a lower division of football doesn’t mean anything. If Oregon is as dominant as everyone says they are it shouldn’t even have been a game.
Okay but every single other team has a loss?? Which is worse than close games??? At least Oregon won the games in the end lmao
@@SoapTheFox I’m not disagreeing that every other team has a loss. I’m just saying Oregon isn’t the almighty like everyone thinks they are. They are capable of losing just like every other team
Penn State has no passing attack other than Warren. Oregon has a stable of receivers. PSU has no real running game except the qb. Oregon has 2 running backs that like to run over people. Oregon’s Defense had 10 sacks and 16 TFL Saturday. Han the kittens 🐈⬛ done that this season?
Keep thinking that!!!! Be careful what you wish for!!!! WE ARE
@ but you didn’t answer the question. Btw I wanted you all to beat OSU because even though you love your team you all aren’t quite as obnoxious as buckeye or wolverine fans
NO...Penn State DID MORE than that!!!
@@josephcernansky1794 they got 10 sacks and 16 TFL in one game? If so which one.
Against Washington.
1 Tyler Warren is not gonna beat this Oregon defense bro!!! But Oregons offense has several Tyler warrens 🫣💚💛🦆
The only thing that really concerns me for Oregon is facing PSU's DLine with Abdul Carter coming off the edge. It's a type of pass rush that I don't think Oregon has faced yet, even against OSU and Michigan. But that is the only thing. I think Oregon will be well prepared for PSU's overall physical style of play and Tyler Warren.
Lanning is going to gut and bleed out the Lions on national tv.
Go Ducks!
Oregon in a breeze
Penn state played 1 high powered offense this year and what happen??? THEY LOST!!! OREGON WINS BY ATLEAST 14 POINTS BOOKMARK THIS COMMENT!!!
Just shut up!! Both of you couldn’t turn a door knob!!
Don’t know if Oregon can beat Penn State!!! 🤣🤣🤣! Oregon has just ran through the big bad BIG 10!!! Penn State is next!