I'm deep in the countryside. Yep, we're dying. All the youngsters want to leave right when they finish high school. 80% actually do. They leave for big cities and stay single or get married in their late 30s or even 40s and have zero children. The 20% who remain here marry each other and have 1-3 kids. They often live with their parents or in-laws rent free and seldom travel even to big cities in Japan. In the worst cases they fall into borderline poverty when the parents die and the pension money disappears. At least they have a house with no mortgage, but it's over 40 years old now and on such serious need of renovation that it might as well be abandoned. It will be by the time the current children leave for Tokyo 10-15 years from now.
It's just a matter of time before the people in the countryside, as impoverished as they are, will be relatively well off as the Japanese (and global) economy collapses and currencies lose all their value and relevance. I'm not even being a doomer as The Limits to Growth has graphed it all out (way back in 1972). Sadly it's the "carbon pulse", the fossil fuel era, that is responsible. All things concrete and car will be stranded assets. Truly, nature likes a circle. We'll all (not just people in Japan) be back to where we were. It's already happening. Where I live, in Kyoto, for a while while there were negative interest rates, evey spare green space was hunted down and turned into plasticky houses a la Daiwa or Sekisui house (ie. sogoshosha, the large trading and materials conglomerates). That game sustained the Japanese and even the global economy until the price of oil and weak yen made it a losing proposition. And now, with the higher interest rates here in Japan, the green fields are being turned into parking lots. After another 5-10 years and then they will not be parking lots any longer but people will be struggling so hard to turn them into food growing fields. It's so sad that the plasticky houses will cause a lot of trouble as they will make it so much harder to grow food. There were not many green fields in my neighborhood when I moved to Kyoto 10 years ago, but there were some, and they could have fed a lot of people. But they went to make the Wall Street rich richer instead. Already the price of rice is increasing and widespread rice shortages are starting. Not to be as I said a "doomer", but with climate change and the end of cheap oil (i.e. peak oil) the world and not just Japan, is in for a bumpy ride.
Great video, it feels like urbanisation is not only a problem in Japan but a worldwide phenomenon. A better distribution of labour, business and industry outside the metropolitan areas could be a solution indeed.
I agree with you Paul and also think that this process is accelerating in recent years, even though it’s been happening for a long time. An example I have from over 25 years ago…we bought a second-hand 7 tiered hina doll set from an elderly woman in a small town in Hyogo prefecture. She was so happy that we were interested in it, as both her daughters who had grown up celebrating hina matsuri with it had moved away from the town and were not interested in inheriting it. I think a lot of people these days find the big hina doll sets too bulky to store and too time consuming to set up and pack away each year. Needless to say, we still make the effort here to set it up each March, even though we now live in Australia Thanks for another thought provoking video!
My wife's hina dolls are in her parent's home...no idea what will happen to them in the future, as we do not have room in our house for them. It would be an absolute shame if we can't figure that one out some day.
Whats interesting to me is that NHK sent a crew to Hawaii to document how we celebrate obon. The first Japanese immigrants came to Hawaii during the Meiji Era and many traditional customs have been preserved here as it was when the first immigrants came
That's really interesting! Can you give some examples of what has been preserved? Obon is one of my fascinations, and I would love to learn of more related customs.
A very thoughtful presentation. I think a lot of people feel as you do. I've lived in Tokyo since 1989 and I love the city but the issues you raise are very important ones
Thank you for the comment. I love Tokyo, and have many great memories of the city (and plan to make more). I feel a bit bad because it felt a bit like I was blasting the city as being a problem - it isn't. It's only a problem if it becomes THE Japan.
It doesn’t seem like the JP government has the will to tackle the birthrate issue when the PM encourages women to go to school while on maternity leave. Also, i have heard from multiple friends in JP corporations that they are expected to work punishing hours, sometimes later than 11pm, while also going out to drink with bosses. How could you foster the desire to have kids under those circumstances??
The issue is all incentives. JP government doesnt know how to craft the right incentives - as a matter of fact, I don't think they ever have, which is evident from the last 30 years of poor economic policy in general.
You mention tough hurdles indeed, and call into question whether anyone in power really understands the nature of the issue - and may not even care enough to. The constant inertia on such huge issues of import makes me question the will of the government to do anything proactive as well.
Book suggestion: ‘Console Wars’ by Blake Harris. It’s about the marketing war between Nintendo and Sega in the early 1990s. While the book focuses on the Sega of America (SOA) inner circle and there successes (plus later failures), a constant point of friction was with Sega of Japan (SOJ) and there inflexibility to respond to the market. SOJ would say since certain things work in JP, it will work in America. If that is the cultural philosophy in the corporate world, how much worse is it in government?
Just recently discovered your channel. I wish anyone considering moving to Japan would watch your video on who should consider moving to Japan and who should not. It would at least help them temper their expectations or not decide not to move to Japan. I would like to note that yes the Japanese government needs policies to make life better for younger workers. That said there seems to be an inertia on the part of companies to change their practices. I feel like this is due to the mindset and psychology of the Japanese middle and upper management. I remember articles in the western media back in the 80s and 90s about a generation of young boys being brought up spoiled. Yes they had so much pressure to do well in school but they were not taught how to deal with life and issues outside of school work. Fast forward and this generation is in charge. Why should they change how things are done? They overwork the younger staff and have them do tasks that have no value to the company but gives them power to dispense praise or scorn as they see fit. They drag them out drinking where they can get plastered and be flattered with fake praise. They go to hostess type bars where they have female company rather than going home to their families, which I suspect, that they are estranged from. And all this on the company dime. Government can make all the legislation they want but if they don’t enforce it or more importantly if the company management don’t work to make these changes then nothing will happen. Human nature being what it is I don’t see companies making changes until it is too late
It's the same in all the big three nations of East Asia really - cities are strangling their cultures and economies to death. It'll cost money to demand companies hire beyond the city, but to be honest these companies are the ones who caused this issue in the first place by demanding everyone move to the city to service their business. There's no reason in the year of current that they cannot open branches in small towns and such and interconnect them using the internet, but they continue to insist on having their entire workforce employed locally in the city. There would be nothing unfair about government policy forcing companies who have profited from this to now foot the bill in restoring the Japanese countryside.
If the government had the courage they could pass some carrot and stick reforms. The carrot - tax breaks, grants, subsidies to companies that move from Tokyo. The stick - higher taxes, tougher regulation, angry looks, at companies that stay in Tokyo.
You think no one's thought about this until now? This conversation was going on in the 90s when I arrived here, various schemes and initiatives were tried, various carrots dangled and sticks wielded, but nothing works long term t change the trend. All serious companies still centralize their operations in Tokyo, and if you as an individual wanna make it in career terms, you have physically got to be there.
I totally agree with you. And, as an American (born and raised in the Silicon Valley), I have zero desire to ever visit Tokyo. I do, however, have immense fantasies about traveling throughout rural Japan. I LOVE the culture - art, traditional clothing/dance/music/design/gardens, and food - but the thought of even spending a single night in Tokyo absolutely appalls me. I don't even like going into the Silicon Valley anymore. I live in the bordering mountains on the valley and it's bliss...I guess I am just very traditional and prefer the simple/organic way of living! Thank you for your wonderful channel!
I've studied JP language, history and culture for 4 years in uni and hearing this, makes me kind of sad. I still have this wish of becoming a tour guide or working with some traveling agency and I would love to find these local artisans you are talking about. Leading people to some unique experiences outside of the big city, like making your own noodles. Tea ceremonies, ikebana, stuff like that.
Pick up Alex Kerr's book "Hidden Japan". May it inspire you to that dream! Its possible, and the sooner you and others grab potential chances to exhibit traditional local cultures to others, the better.
The sad thing is that urbanisation has already killed off almost all local culture here in the UK. It would have been amazing to see what village life was like when my grandparents were growing up in the 1930s. Nagi is a really interesting case as it's a real success story of how a Japanese town was able to turn around its low birthrate, the key ingredient? Community.
I travelled around the UK in 1999 and found the small towns I visited to be charming on a level that was really pleasing and eye opening to an American. Your suggestion that going back to the 30s would be better really makes me think.
I hiked the Nakasendo trail some years ago. Little villages were largely empty, with the exception of some elderly people and very young children. I assume that in some cases the working young people leave their little kids with their parents while they go work weeks at a time in the larger cities.
I know Tokyo very well, I've spent, and plan to spend, a lot of time there, and you can find very non-touristic places and experiences within the city if you feel to move a little bit from the city center, and it is a place I deeply love, but man, what I felt and experienced in places like the little towns around the Nakasendo trail, or deep in the Japanese Alps, another kind of experience, another kind of Japan. 100% agree with your video.
You seem like my soulmate 😁. I could have written the exact same comment. I LOVE Tokyo. I love the back streets, the local communities, the places most tourists never visit. The little neighbourhood sentos and used stuff shops. But the countryside, I fell in love with Wakayama, and Gunma, and hope to visit many more areas of the countryside. Sadly I live way too far away from Japan, but I hope to visit many more times (first stay was in -98, so I’ve seen the development too, it’s quite sad for people like me who appreciated the localness and all the small communities even Tokyo had back then).
@@Kaarver hahaha totally can relate! One thing that I couldn't stop thinking while traveling and visiting these places, is that probably I'm looking at the last generation of people that are keeping these little shops, inns, and little local businesses open and working, and being for the majority, elderly people, in the next 10 years most of these places would become almost ghost towns, and I'm visiting something that soon, will not be experience any longer. It is a sad realization staying somewhere that you love but know is not going to last long.
I feel I did Tokyo a disservice by not talking about the genuine Tokyo cultures that exist in the old neighborhoods, the shitamachi folk, and the multi generational Tokyoites. But I figured that would be a video for another day, this one was already long enough. And if I do a Tokyo culture video, it'd be one where I could actually visit some of these places and talk to local people.
@@Exjapter Oh not at all, it was clear what you were talking about, and anyone who traveled a bit and has seen the different aspects of Japan, perfectly understands your point and that is not a critic of Tokyo or the OG people who are born and lived there all their life!
That's also what I thought. Barakamon, one of my favorite Anime is a pretty good example. It's about an artist that has to move to the Goto islands, a very remote place. As soon as he arrives he gets to know people from the village. Over time he experiences their dialect, traditions and other things specific to that area. Pretty much everything you mentioned and gets lost in translation to big cities. Everybody knowing each other so it's easier to find a partner and everyone keeping their traditions alive. Or in other words: It's the loss of community.
Great, well-balanced take. I love living in rural Nagano. The pace of life is so nice, and most are very friendly. I will likely need to live in a bigger city in the future for job prospects, but I'm glad this was my starting point.
Yeah, I was trying to keep it light since my whole point was "foreigners have already irrevocably changed Japan" and not get bogged down in actually talking about the post war period.
I’m sure Japan has seen what happens to other countries that have mass immigration, and are like “naaah…we’d prefer to be very selective of who comes to live here”. Hopefully they can incentivize younger people to have more even make the countryside more attractive (maybe bringing more businesses there). I don’t want kids myself, but I don’t live in a country where the birth rate is an issue.
Yeah plus mass immigration doesn’t really solve the issue, like if Japan brought in millions of foreigners who have way more kids than the Japanese then the Japanese people would be on their way to becoming a minority in their own country. It happens very quickly and is fairly irreversible.
What you are describing is common. Every richer country has a birth rate below replacement level. All richer countries are heavily urbanised. All national cultures are homogenized. The future of the countryside is as a recreational facility for city people. A kind of theme park populated by fake locals who've opted out of the city. I've lived in Tokyo for 10 years and now the mountains of Saitama for 10 years. My village is dying quite fast. When I moved in maybe 20% of the houses were akiya and it's going up fast as the elderly die off. And the local events are just social gatherings for old men.
You are not wrong. As an American, in Japan it hits much harder for me than when I think of similar issues in the USA. In the US, small town culture is a baby when compared to the centuries of history many places in Japan have. The weight of what is being lost seems so much greater. Maybe if I was from France or Italy I would find it more relatable and would then feel differently perhaps.
I've travelled all over Japan and always look forward to getting out of Tokyo. I enjoy going out with family to eat some great food and the transports very convenient unless your like rugged up for the winter and then jumping on a stinking hot crowded Yamanote train. Its such a contrast when you get out to some chilled out mountain or coastal area or an island. I like coastal Chiba (Kujukuri to Ohara), mid to Northern Wakayama coast, Miyazaki, especially Nichinan coast and mid Shikoku East Coast. Mainly coz they are surfing coastlines. Ichinomiya is awesome coz its only a 1.5hr drive across the aqualine or 2hrs by train to get there and you feel so chilled, very little buildings over 2 story, a sense of space, quiet roads and still has farming community interwoven into everything else.
I explore new parts of the countryside whenever I can, and I will probably steal some of the places you have mentioned. I find so much of my stress melts away, the farther from the Metropolis I get.
Filming location is a hard balance, as quieter streets naturally have less going on for people to see, but I totally understand it makes the audio experience less comfortable.
I hardly consider life in a city to be a challenge for parenting - in fact, it is often much the opposite. Similar to countries like Korea (and even, as I have recently discovered, New Zealand), I think the main issue is poor work-life balance, especially for women but also for men, that comes with having children... and a general unwillingness from men to properly split domestic chores and childcare activities. The latter is a huge issue almost everywhere, though. Interesting to hear what your impressions are, and what Japanese people with whom you have talked are concerned with regarding their cultural shift. I hope the best for the future of Japan (but I won't hold my breath).
I often have the topic "The most important issue in Japan" assigned to my students either as a speech or an essay. The falling birthrate is a popular choice, and the students do a pretty good job of analysing and reporting on the data, but they rarely come up with any sort of suggestions or solutions within their rhetoric beyond "the government should do something." Nor do they tie the countryside/city dynamic like I have in this video. Now I am curious why you think the city makes it easier to have children? I am open to a good argument.
@@Exjapter Oh, the city for childcare dynamic opinion of mine is down to being a choosy/picky parent. I recall my parents (mum in particular) spending weeks going all over the city and checking out daycares, kindergartens, and schools to choose which ones to apply for sending us to. Even in countries I’ve lived in that don’t have school choice and assign you an institution based on your zip code, there are at least two or three public options that you can select - or you look into budgeting like a madman and applying for a spot at a private institution. Choice of doctor and dentist are also much greater in the city. Then there are all the shopping options - as you know, a family requires a sea of diapers and toilet paper… and food, on a continuous basis. Cities tend to have loads of supermarkets and stores to choose from - and these typically alternate what items they have on sale. There are all the public transit options or at least the sidewalks, and the many activities to do (movie theaters, museums, parks, playgrounds, etc. etc.). A town does of course have these things as well, but without the range of choices. Because having so much of everything is a privilege of areas with higher population density. Also, just for the adults as well, having both parents working a good job they are happy with is much easier to accomplish while living in a city. Especially if you don’t want to commute like a madman. It’s easier to manage a family if both parents are happy at their jobs and live close-ish to their work. Now, life in a town also has its upsides - these are ONLY BENEFITS that a city has over a town. I’m not saying that the city has to be the best choice for families. I’m just sharing some reasons that it can be :)
I think it's highly exaggerated. Japan has all of those issues, and i think a lot of these relate to demography and inaka dying out, alongside with the "culture bearers", but honestly it feels like nothing compared to situation in my country. I'm ukrainian, and our country has issues with demography before(echoes of ww2 and essentially struggling with birth rates same as another european countries), but now, out of ~30 mln people, around 10 mln migrated(most of these are never coming back), a few million died in war, probably million/hundreds of thousands missing, half of left 15-20 mln is elderly. With every day of ongoing stuff age pyramid becomes more horrible and horrible, birth rates now are worse than south korea, and essentially, mathematically, we really have no future. "There will be 100 mln japanese in mostly big cities with some parts of culture dying out in god-knows-how-many years" for me seems like nothing compared to literally second largest(territorially) country in Europe literally becoming depopulated, with most of the Donbass region and some southern parts being literal ecological catastrophy and unlivable for decades to come(ironic thing that they were initially called "wild field" because it was just endless steppe and nothingness, later it become economic and industrial powerhouse, and now it will probably become "wild field" again) and maybe like 5-10 mln(out of initial 50 back in the 90s) being left in the country. And with that goes out the culture, the language, and all things releated, except some pockets of people in emigration. That's what i really call the culture dying :) There was even quite an artsy movie called "Atlantis"(2018) about that
In most ordinary conversations, sure, but I still find myself in situations where I don't have the vocabulary to cope. Since starting my PhD I haven't continued my Japanese study, so I still have work to do.
There is hope. Many beautiful things are being drained of life and threatened by death in this age. But there is hope. I will return and actually watch this video when I do.
Imagine a Tokyo 25 years from now where 1/5 of the area kids in 2050 have a non Japanese parent and several million additional 'foreign guest workers' have been added into the mix. Most of the Japanese who are currently age 65 or over are of course gone by then... Is that within the realm of possibility? If so, what 'Tokyo culture' could possibly emerge?
While I concur with several points you've raised, I maintain a more optimistic outlook regarding Japan's future. Firstly, it's important to note that Japan is far from facing extinction. The Japanese people have inhabited this archipelago continuously for 40,000 years, with the population experiencing a dramatic surge in the past century, surpassing 100 million in only several decades. Secondly, although no nation has yet devised a foolproof strategy to boost birth rates, demographic shifts occur gradually and predictably, allowing for measured economic preparation and adaptation. Thirdly, the primary factor behind the disappearance of corporations from regional towns is not purely economic, but rather a complex interplay of geopolitical and national security concerns-a dynamic that is rapidly weakening. Fourthly, both the Japanese government and numerous corporations are now heavily investing in artificial intelligence and robotics. This echoes the mechanization of Japanese industry during the 1960s, a period of high economic growth catalyzed by a significant labor shortage. Lastly, there's a growing trend among young people to relocate to rural areas, facilitated by widespread internet access and the convenience of online shopping. In my view, those who vociferously decry the low birth rate and declining population in media and political discourse often represent leftist or globalist ideologies. Their underlying agenda is to promote increased immigration, to terminate Japan's distinct cultural heritage.
ur first and second point only misdirect the main discussion and didn't address any real effect of shrinking population which are numerous the third point is directly linked to the shrinking population problem by a very straightforward logic, less people, less incentive for corporate investment fourth point is also a direct effect of shrinking population problem: less people, more automation last point might be accurate, but still need to see the long-term effects. whether or not there is leftist/globalist agenda at play there, the increased immigration is also direct effect of the shrinking population low-earning job is not preferable any more by a highly develop societies this is evident in the US and in EU, as well as other "Western" countries, like Australia, Canada im not an optimist or a pessimist, but a realist and this is the reality of a developed economy: shrinking population, inflaction and high cost of living, increased immigration, etc Japan will and actually alraedy have the same set of problems the West have
@@Nous98 Frankly, I'm struggling to grasp the intent of your argument. Can you clarify your points 1. and 2. Can you specify the exact issues arising from Japan's current population decline? 3. You mention reduced corporate investment incentives. Can you elaborate on the implications of this? Is our primary concern the overall GDP or GDP per capita? 4. Regarding the trend of increased automation as the population decreases, what specific challenges do you foresee? 5. I question the direct link you draw between population decline and increased immigration. Can you provide a more detailed explanation of how a decreasing population might lead to an increase in low-wage jobs? The experiences of the United States, EU, Australia, and Canada seem to indicate failures in immigration policy rather than inevitable consequences of demographic shifts. Lastly, can you specify the interconnection between population decline, inflation, rising living costs, and increased immigration? The relationship between these factors is not immediately apparent to me.
@hayek218 I don't know enough about economics to really address the points you make here. I will say the following, however: I believe Japan is in a unique space where they could create policies and initiatives to try to establish a sustainable population "stabilization." I have said before, in another video (so it's not a secret), that I am ambivalent to the idea of immigration being a solution to Japan's population issue. I feel that with the right policies, with the aid of automation, telework, and AI, Japan could become a leader in what can be done when dealing with a falling population, without the 'necessity' of immigration. Perhaps a pipe dream, but worth a shot in my humble (non economics expert) opinion. But in a way this is neither here nor there for the purpose of the topic I am on about in the video. If the trend reverses too far in the future, the death of many local cultures will have already occurred, and those cultures will not be revived.
@@Nous98 Wait what is your argument about the first point? You've said nothing concrete or clear about that whatsoever? How about looking at describing Japan's situation of demographics vs National boundaries and resources first of all? Japan's population is 126m (iirc) today. Now comparing that population size to California which is 95% the size of Japan which has a population size of about 39m. Let's look back to the end of the Edo period where Japan's population was about 30m and 100% sustainable without external Oil resources or Nuclear. Now from the extreme of the past pre-industrial society to the modern or present society of 126m there's clearly 2 extremes we can pin a future population trajectory on for Japan that manages modernity with a reduced population size that increases SUSTAINABILITY thus reducing for Japan it's Ecological Footprint and Carbon Footprint which in turn will benefit the Environment of Japanese islands and contribute to the Global agenda also. In short you've not added to the original message on point one at all while proclaiming to dismiss the OP's optimism with apparent realism (where is the realism without correct description?) which should be optimistic about declining population size which augments sustainability of this nation which has limited farm land and limited natural resources per head of population. IE IN conclusion: Japan HAS to ensure a decline in population to revert between those numbers of 30m (low end) to 126m (high end). A good start would be a natural decline below 100m for example and even that is still too high in likelihood. This is in tandem with transition from say consumer-economic driven society to sustainability-human driven society paradigm shift. As for point 2: Birth rates increase when conditions of mating and family planning are conducive - it's easy to study this in animals and humans are no different except in complexity eg psychology affecting behaviour etc. For example, humans will breed when their life-cycles align with their age periods and optimizing their living standards holistically (not necessarily above a necessary materail standard) eg more space for living per family, healthy living, removal of stress, spiritual or meaning in daily life work and social structures around that. All things that are mitigated against by modern Urban-Economic-Consumerism living conditions!
@@Exjapterit’s always “fun” to read immigrants such as yourself not wanting immigrants 😂anyway, the problem with Japan is capitalism. Remove capitalism, they start breeding again and they won’t need immigrants (such as yourself)
I love Japan ❤ I practice Shinto and Zen Buddhism. And my father was stationed in Japan in the 1950s and he fell in love with it. He visited Shinto Jinja and Buddhist temples in Nara As well as taken up judo and some karate while he was in Osaka. He paid his respects in Hiroshima. And told me about it. I hope the culture and the Japanese people don't die out. And I hope the countryside doesn't vanish. I hope to visit Japan someday. I'm in my 60s I was born in the Showa period. It's part of my kick the bucket list. Great video very thought provoking.
Shinto and Buddhism are not in direct danger of dying out, as long as places like Kamakura and Kyoto and other such famous centers of religion and spirituality exist. However, countryside shrines (and their festivals) and temples are in danger of disappearing. I can't explain it, but the thought makes me incredibly sad. Most local festivals I have ever been to, on the surface, seems to follow a similar pattern, but are always different in important ways. A fishing village will have particular songs and dances, while a festival in the mountains will slam the portable shrine (mikoshi) on the ground in order to awaken the gods. They are all unique in their own ways.
TOTALLY AGREE WITH YOU. We need a proper distance between our eyes and a visible object to see it clearly. Paul, you are the healthy eyes that see clearly. Your love and respect for the Japan-its culture and people, is that appropriate distance. Your experience after 22 years living among the Japanese is the light that shines on the object. I am totally with you. Job opportunities should be generated more in the suburbs then country side. Universities should be moved away from big cities. University towns will exist. The next generation will look beyond those towns and outward. In the meantime, elder care centers should be in the country side. Immigrant workers are more than happy to work AND live there. Medical technology allows health care to reach out to remote area. All the Japanese need is the political will.
There are UA-cam videos about foreigners buying Akiyas in the Japanese countryside. Is that influx of foreigners into the Japanese countryside significant enough to change its culture?
I want to think that, for now at least, these foreigners who desire the peaceful rural Japan life have already bought into the culture and adopted a lot of the sensibilities and such. The big cities however, that may be a bigger challenge.
From what I have seen (on youtube and people I know)- the majority of foreigners who move to the countryside tend to embrace and want to fit in with the local community as much as they can. At least the ones who are actually serious about giving residence in Japan a go. Now that you mention it - since most foreigners live in Tokyo, they aren't put into that same position or opportunity. I think that is why I feel so strongly about all of this - I started off in a countryside community.
"Authenticity" is a trap. If it's happening in Japan, it is Japanese culture. You cannot force "authenticity", the real world just happens. Things change. As the old man once said, the only constant is change.
Thank you for an excellent, thought-provoking video. People like you are the new life force of Japan. Japan is blessed to have adopted such good sons and daughters; I only hope she will have the strength to change. PS: I don't know what your work is. I am also very passionate about Japan. Hopefully, I could learn something from you and we could work on something together. :)
@@Exjapter Thank you for your receptive response 😊 I am interested in how to rejuvenate Japan socially and economically, the policies and cultural changes to help Japan attract but also integrate foreign talents, how Japan should navigate the uncertain time ahead. My background is in international trade, macroecon, geopolitics. I am moving to Osaka in Jan for a short language course, with focus on staying long-term. I'm not sure specifically how I can be of help to you yet. But I hope we can meet up when I come to Tokyo. Thanks again. 😊 And please let me know if I can assist you in anything. I'm from Vietnam. So anything about Japan's role and future in SEAsia, perhaps.
The problem I see from my own students is, they see it as an escalator - of course everything leads to Tokyo. And they don't question it. I don't see it as indifference, but more a lack of critical reflection.
Would it help if Japanese government federalized and moved many domestic government functions into state capitals? Tokyo would act as the capital and house foreign affairs type bureaus and other cities would act as state capitals acting in regards to domestic service bureaus. Like Yokohama becoming the capital of a Kanto state, Hiroshima the capital of a Chugoku state, Fukuoka the capital of a Kyushu state, etc. Then companies that work with government on domestic infrastructure and services would move out of Tokyo.
That's an interesting idea, and could be part of initiatives to diversify ministries across Japan. One thing I forgot to mention in the video is that it seems remarkably foolish to have everything so centralized that a major earthquake takes out all the eggs in the basket at once.
I think if there was no hospital fees for child births or childcare care was free, then perhaps women may consider having children. I have 2 teenagers and I don’t work. I don’t know how women who work raise kids! I take my hat off to you all
Childcare is the big one, not only the cost but even finding one with openings and is in any way convenient to where one lives. Giving birth in Japan is technically free (you pay up front, but then apply for a reimburse from the government afterwards.)
Bro you made a UA-cam video ? lol I mean come on why not move to inaka somewhere and start a family with Japanese woman yourself and have like 4 kids ? I mean that would be the real solution here
News flash, Japan along with most cultures have been changing for centuries and even thousands of years. It's not that long ago for Japan to have adapted writing from China and adapted it to their own unique style. You can't expect Japan to keep Kabuki theater as their only form of entertainment can you? Japan will never die, it will evolve like so many others. After all, the world has become smaller with travel and internet.
I used Kabuki as an example at the beginning of the video to make the exact same point you do, and to show that's not what I am talking about. With the world being smaller, I think that gives us even stronger tools to preserve what is dying. And the Japanese, who claim at least a wish to preserve traditional Japanese culture, should begin doing so.
I'm deep in the countryside. Yep, we're dying. All the youngsters want to leave right when they finish high school.
80% actually do. They leave for big cities and stay single or get married in their late 30s or even 40s and have zero children.
The 20% who remain here marry each other and have 1-3 kids. They often live with their parents or in-laws rent free and seldom travel even to big cities in Japan. In the worst cases they fall into borderline poverty when the parents die and the pension money disappears. At least they have a house with no mortgage, but it's over 40 years old now and on such serious need of renovation that it might as well be abandoned. It will be by the time the current children leave for Tokyo 10-15 years from now.
Let's do an interview about this some time.
That's sad. I love the small towns in the countryside :/
It's just a matter of time before the people in the countryside, as impoverished as they are, will be relatively well off as the Japanese (and global) economy collapses and currencies lose all their value and relevance. I'm not even being a doomer as The Limits to Growth has graphed it all out (way back in 1972).
Sadly it's the "carbon pulse", the fossil fuel era, that is responsible.
All things concrete and car will be stranded assets.
Truly, nature likes a circle. We'll all (not just people in Japan) be back to where we were.
It's already happening. Where I live, in Kyoto, for a while while there were negative interest rates, evey spare green space was hunted down and turned into plasticky houses a la Daiwa or Sekisui house (ie. sogoshosha, the large trading and materials conglomerates). That game sustained the Japanese and even the global economy until the price of oil and weak yen made it a losing proposition. And now, with the higher interest rates here in Japan, the green fields are being turned into parking lots. After another 5-10 years and then they will not be parking lots any longer but people will be struggling so hard to turn them into food growing fields. It's so sad that the plasticky houses will cause a lot of trouble as they will make it so much harder to grow food. There were not many green fields in my neighborhood when I moved to Kyoto 10 years ago, but there were some, and they could have fed a lot of people. But they went to make the Wall Street rich richer instead.
Already the price of rice is increasing and widespread rice shortages are starting.
Not to be as I said a "doomer", but with climate change and the end of cheap oil (i.e. peak oil) the world and not just Japan, is in for a bumpy ride.
Great video, it feels like urbanisation is not only a problem in Japan but a worldwide phenomenon. A better distribution of labour, business and industry outside the metropolitan areas could be a solution indeed.
I agree with you Paul and also think that this process is accelerating in recent years, even though it’s been happening for a long time. An example I have from over 25 years ago…we bought a second-hand 7 tiered hina doll set from an elderly woman in a small town in Hyogo prefecture. She was so happy that we were interested in it, as both her daughters who had grown up celebrating hina matsuri with it had moved away from the town and were not interested in inheriting it. I think a lot of people these days find the big hina doll sets too bulky to store and too time consuming to set up and pack away each year.
Needless to say, we still make the effort here to set it up each March, even though we now live in Australia
Thanks for another thought provoking video!
My wife's hina dolls are in her parent's home...no idea what will happen to them in the future, as we do not have room in our house for them. It would be an absolute shame if we can't figure that one out some day.
Very interesting and thought-provoking! Been click-baited with garbage takes too many times but I'm glad I decided to give this video a chance :)
Thank you for the comment. I will admit I went with a rather click-batey title, but felt I had (hopefully) the rhetoric to back it up.
Whats interesting to me is that NHK sent a crew to Hawaii to document how we celebrate obon. The first Japanese immigrants came to Hawaii during the Meiji Era and many traditional customs have been preserved here as it was when the first immigrants came
That's really interesting! Can you give some examples of what has been preserved? Obon is one of my fascinations, and I would love to learn of more related customs.
that's just exoticism. they're not trying to learn about japanese culture that they've lost, they're just staring.
A very thoughtful presentation. I think a lot of people feel as you do. I've lived in Tokyo since 1989 and I love the city but the issues you raise are very important ones
Thank you for the comment. I love Tokyo, and have many great memories of the city (and plan to make more). I feel a bit bad because it felt a bit like I was blasting the city as being a problem - it isn't. It's only a problem if it becomes THE Japan.
It doesn’t seem like the JP government has the will to tackle the birthrate issue when the PM encourages women to go to school while on maternity leave. Also, i have heard from multiple friends in JP corporations that they are expected to work punishing hours, sometimes later than 11pm, while also going out to drink with bosses. How could you foster the desire to have kids under those circumstances??
The issue is all incentives. JP government doesnt know how to craft the right incentives - as a matter of fact, I don't think they ever have, which is evident from the last 30 years of poor economic policy in general.
You mention tough hurdles indeed, and call into question whether anyone in power really understands the nature of the issue - and may not even care enough to. The constant inertia on such huge issues of import makes me question the will of the government to do anything proactive as well.
@@Exjapter I dont think they have a clue about what to do. Old politicians cling to power and the people keep voting for them.
Book suggestion: ‘Console Wars’ by Blake Harris. It’s about the marketing war between Nintendo and Sega in the early 1990s. While the book focuses on the Sega of America (SOA) inner circle and there successes (plus later failures), a constant point of friction was with Sega of Japan (SOJ) and there inflexibility to respond to the market. SOJ would say since certain things work in JP, it will work in America. If that is the cultural philosophy in the corporate world, how much worse is it in government?
Just recently discovered your channel. I wish anyone considering moving to Japan would watch your video on who should consider moving to Japan and who should not. It would at least help them temper their expectations or not decide not to move to Japan. I would like to note that yes the Japanese government needs policies to make life better for younger workers. That said there seems to be an inertia on the part of companies to change their practices. I feel like this is due to the mindset and psychology of the Japanese middle and upper management. I remember articles in the western media back in the 80s and 90s about a generation of young boys being brought up spoiled. Yes they had so much pressure to do well in school but they were not taught how to deal with life and issues outside of school work. Fast forward and this generation is in charge. Why should they change how things are done? They overwork the younger staff and have them do tasks that have no value to the company but gives them power to dispense praise or scorn as they see fit. They drag them out drinking where they can get plastered and be flattered with fake praise. They go to hostess type bars where they have female company rather than going home to their families, which I suspect, that they are estranged from. And all this on the company dime. Government can make all the legislation they want but if they don’t enforce it or more importantly if the company management don’t work to make these changes then nothing will happen. Human nature being what it is I don’t see companies making changes until it is too late
It's the same in all the big three nations of East Asia really - cities are strangling their cultures and economies to death. It'll cost money to demand companies hire beyond the city, but to be honest these companies are the ones who caused this issue in the first place by demanding everyone move to the city to service their business. There's no reason in the year of current that they cannot open branches in small towns and such and interconnect them using the internet, but they continue to insist on having their entire workforce employed locally in the city. There would be nothing unfair about government policy forcing companies who have profited from this to now foot the bill in restoring the Japanese countryside.
If the government had the courage they could pass some carrot and stick reforms. The carrot - tax breaks, grants, subsidies to companies that move from Tokyo. The stick - higher taxes, tougher regulation, angry looks, at companies that stay in Tokyo.
You think no one's thought about this until now? This conversation was going on in the 90s when I arrived here, various schemes and initiatives were tried, various carrots dangled and sticks wielded, but nothing works long term t change the trend. All serious companies still centralize their operations in Tokyo, and if you as an individual wanna make it in career terms, you have physically got to be there.
I totally agree with you. And, as an American (born and raised in the Silicon Valley), I have zero desire to ever visit Tokyo. I do, however, have immense fantasies about traveling throughout rural Japan. I LOVE the culture - art, traditional clothing/dance/music/design/gardens, and food - but the thought of even spending a single night in Tokyo absolutely appalls me. I don't even like going into the Silicon Valley anymore. I live in the bordering mountains on the valley and it's bliss...I guess I am just very traditional and prefer the simple/organic way of living! Thank you for your wonderful channel!
Thank you for the comment! It certainly sounds like you have an allergy for cities.
I've studied JP language, history and culture for 4 years in uni and hearing this, makes me kind of sad.
I still have this wish of becoming a tour guide or working with some traveling agency and I would love to find these local artisans you are talking about. Leading people to some unique experiences outside of the big city, like making your own noodles. Tea ceremonies, ikebana, stuff like that.
Pick up Alex Kerr's book "Hidden Japan". May it inspire you to that dream! Its possible, and the sooner you and others grab potential chances to exhibit traditional local cultures to others, the better.
The sad thing is that urbanisation has already killed off almost all local culture here in the UK. It would have been amazing to see what village life was like when my grandparents were growing up in the 1930s. Nagi is a really interesting case as it's a real success story of how a Japanese town was able to turn around its low birthrate, the key ingredient? Community.
I travelled around the UK in 1999 and found the small towns I visited to be charming on a level that was really pleasing and eye opening to an American. Your suggestion that going back to the 30s would be better really makes me think.
I hiked the Nakasendo trail some years ago. Little villages were largely empty, with the exception of some elderly people and very young children. I assume that in some cases the working young people leave their little kids with their parents while they go work weeks at a time in the larger cities.
That probably does happen, but I don't think it's the norm.
大岡小学校〜鎌倉街道〜弘明寺銀星会かんのん通り商店街〜高校生の時毎日通学に使った道🎉
弘明寺公園の🌲林の中もイイお散歩コースですね✌️
I know Tokyo very well, I've spent, and plan to spend, a lot of time there, and you can find very non-touristic places and experiences within the city if you feel to move a little bit from the city center, and it is a place I deeply love, but man, what I felt and experienced in places like the little towns around the Nakasendo trail, or deep in the Japanese Alps, another kind of experience, another kind of Japan. 100% agree with your video.
You seem like my soulmate 😁. I could have written the exact same comment.
I LOVE Tokyo. I love the back streets, the local communities, the places most tourists never visit. The little neighbourhood sentos and used stuff shops.
But the countryside, I fell in love with Wakayama, and Gunma, and hope to visit many more areas of the countryside.
Sadly I live way too far away from Japan, but I hope to visit many more times (first stay was in -98, so I’ve seen the development too, it’s quite sad for people like me who appreciated the localness and all the small communities even Tokyo had back then).
@@Kaarver hahaha totally can relate! One thing that I couldn't stop thinking while traveling and visiting these places, is that probably I'm looking at the last generation of people that are keeping these little shops, inns, and little local businesses open and working, and being for the majority, elderly people, in the next 10 years most of these places would become almost ghost towns, and I'm visiting something that soon, will not be experience any longer. It is a sad realization staying somewhere that you love but know is not going to last long.
I feel I did Tokyo a disservice by not talking about the genuine Tokyo cultures that exist in the old neighborhoods, the shitamachi folk, and the multi generational Tokyoites. But I figured that would be a video for another day, this one was already long enough. And if I do a Tokyo culture video, it'd be one where I could actually visit some of these places and talk to local people.
@@Exjapter Oh not at all, it was clear what you were talking about, and anyone who traveled a bit and has seen the different aspects of Japan, perfectly understands your point and that is not a critic of Tokyo or the OG people who are born and lived there all their life!
That's also what I thought. Barakamon, one of my favorite Anime is a pretty good example. It's about an artist that has to move to the Goto islands, a very remote place. As soon as he arrives he gets to know people from the village. Over time he experiences their dialect, traditions and other things specific to that area. Pretty much everything you mentioned and gets lost in translation to big cities. Everybody knowing each other so it's easier to find a partner and everyone keeping their traditions alive. Or in other words: It's the loss of community.
the same phenomena are occurring in the west to some extent, especially this sense of a homogeneous urban monoculture
Great, well-balanced take. I love living in rural Nagano. The pace of life is so nice, and most are very friendly. I will likely need to live in a bigger city in the future for job prospects, but I'm glad this was my starting point.
Nagano is my dream prefecture. If I could at least get a besso there, I can die happy!
"The Americans showed up again in 1945"...yeah, that's an interesting way to put it.
Yeah, I was trying to keep it light since my whole point was "foreigners have already irrevocably changed Japan" and not get bogged down in actually talking about the post war period.
Japanese- style understatement.
Excellent video. Let's hope for the best.
Since Tokyo is susceptible to earthquakes it might be a good idea to decentralize too. I look forward to your book list
I plan to get on the booklist video later this week, with it probably coming out next week. Thanks for the comment!
Congrats on the 22 years, dude! Would you change anything? Or just keep it the same?
Great question....gonna have to think on that.
I’m sure Japan has seen what happens to other countries that have mass immigration, and are like “naaah…we’d prefer to be very selective of who comes to live here”. Hopefully they can incentivize younger people to have more even make the countryside more attractive (maybe bringing more businesses there). I don’t want kids myself, but I don’t live in a country where the birth rate is an issue.
Yeah plus mass immigration doesn’t really solve the issue, like if Japan brought in millions of foreigners who have way more kids than the Japanese then the Japanese people would be on their way to becoming a minority in their own country. It happens very quickly and is fairly irreversible.
I went to the old Kabuki Theater in Ginza before the remodel and loved it.
What you are describing is common. Every richer country has a birth rate below replacement level. All richer countries are heavily urbanised. All national cultures are homogenized. The future of the countryside is as a recreational facility for city people. A kind of theme park populated by fake locals who've opted out of the city. I've lived in Tokyo for 10 years and now the mountains of Saitama for 10 years. My village is dying quite fast. When I moved in maybe 20% of the houses were akiya and it's going up fast as the elderly die off. And the local events are just social gatherings for old men.
You are not wrong. As an American, in Japan it hits much harder for me than when I think of similar issues in the USA. In the US, small town culture is a baby when compared to the centuries of history many places in Japan have. The weight of what is being lost seems so much greater. Maybe if I was from France or Italy I would find it more relatable and would then feel differently perhaps.
I've travelled all over Japan and always look forward to getting out of Tokyo. I enjoy going out with family to eat some great food and the transports very convenient unless your like rugged up for the winter and then jumping on a stinking hot crowded Yamanote train. Its such a contrast when you get out to some chilled out mountain or coastal area or an island. I like coastal Chiba (Kujukuri to Ohara), mid to Northern Wakayama coast, Miyazaki, especially Nichinan coast and mid Shikoku East Coast. Mainly coz they are surfing coastlines. Ichinomiya is awesome coz its only a 1.5hr drive across the aqualine or 2hrs by train to get there and you feel so chilled, very little buildings over 2 story, a sense of space, quiet roads and still has farming community interwoven into everything else.
I explore new parts of the countryside whenever I can, and I will probably steal some of the places you have mentioned. I find so much of my stress melts away, the farther from the Metropolis I get.
Nice content, but please choose quieter streets to walk ... they would have better air as well!
Filming location is a hard balance, as quieter streets naturally have less going on for people to see, but I totally understand it makes the audio experience less comfortable.
Look up the birthrate map; most of the entire world is below replacement levels, with many below half of replacement (
I hardly consider life in a city to be a challenge for parenting - in fact, it is often much the opposite.
Similar to countries like Korea (and even, as I have recently discovered, New Zealand), I think the main issue is poor work-life balance, especially for women but also for men, that comes with having children... and a general unwillingness from men to properly split domestic chores and childcare activities. The latter is a huge issue almost everywhere, though.
Interesting to hear what your impressions are, and what Japanese people with whom you have talked are concerned with regarding their cultural shift.
I hope the best for the future of Japan (but I won't hold my breath).
I often have the topic "The most important issue in Japan" assigned to my students either as a speech or an essay. The falling birthrate is a popular choice, and the students do a pretty good job of analysing and reporting on the data, but they rarely come up with any sort of suggestions or solutions within their rhetoric beyond "the government should do something." Nor do they tie the countryside/city dynamic like I have in this video. Now I am curious why you think the city makes it easier to have children? I am open to a good argument.
@@Exjapter Oh, the city for childcare dynamic opinion of mine is down to being a choosy/picky parent.
I recall my parents (mum in particular) spending weeks going all over the city and checking out daycares, kindergartens, and schools to choose which ones to apply for sending us to.
Even in countries I’ve lived in that don’t have school choice and assign you an institution based on your zip code, there are at least two or three public options that you can select - or you look into budgeting like a madman and applying for a spot at a private institution.
Choice of doctor and dentist are also much greater in the city.
Then there are all the shopping options - as you know, a family requires a sea of diapers and toilet paper… and food, on a continuous basis. Cities tend to have loads of supermarkets and stores to choose from - and these typically alternate what items they have on sale.
There are all the public transit options or at least the sidewalks, and the many activities to do (movie theaters, museums, parks, playgrounds, etc. etc.).
A town does of course have these things as well, but without the range of choices. Because having so much of everything is a privilege of areas with higher population density.
Also, just for the adults as well, having both parents working a good job they are happy with is much easier to accomplish while living in a city. Especially if you don’t want to commute like a madman. It’s easier to manage a family if both parents are happy at their jobs and live close-ish to their work.
Now, life in a town also has its upsides - these are ONLY BENEFITS that a city has over a town. I’m not saying that the city has to be the best choice for families. I’m just sharing some reasons that it can be :)
I think it's highly exaggerated. Japan has all of those issues, and i think a lot of these relate to demography and inaka dying out, alongside with the "culture bearers", but honestly it feels like nothing compared to situation in my country. I'm ukrainian, and our country has issues with demography before(echoes of ww2 and essentially struggling with birth rates same as another european countries), but now, out of ~30 mln people, around 10 mln migrated(most of these are never coming back), a few million died in war, probably million/hundreds of thousands missing, half of left 15-20 mln is elderly. With every day of ongoing stuff age pyramid becomes more horrible and horrible, birth rates now are worse than south korea, and essentially, mathematically, we really have no future. "There will be 100 mln japanese in mostly big cities with some parts of culture dying out in god-knows-how-many years" for me seems like nothing compared to literally second largest(territorially) country in Europe literally becoming depopulated, with most of the Donbass region and some southern parts being literal ecological catastrophy and unlivable for decades to come(ironic thing that they were initially called "wild field" because it was just endless steppe and nothingness, later it become economic and industrial powerhouse, and now it will probably become "wild field" again) and maybe like 5-10 mln(out of initial 50 back in the 90s) being left in the country. And with that goes out the culture, the language, and all things releated, except some pockets of people in emigration. That's what i really call the culture dying :) There was even quite an artsy movie called "Atlantis"(2018) about that
Yukio Mishima predicted this decades ago.
Mishima looms large, but is unfortunately a gap in my knowledge about Japan. I mean to remedy that sooner rather than later.
can I ask if you're fluent in japanese after all those years?
In most ordinary conversations, sure, but I still find myself in situations where I don't have the vocabulary to cope. Since starting my PhD I haven't continued my Japanese study, so I still have work to do.
There is hope. Many beautiful things are being drained of life and threatened by death in this age. But there is hope. I will return and actually watch this video when I do.
Imagine a Tokyo 25 years from now where 1/5 of the area kids in 2050 have a non Japanese parent and several million additional 'foreign guest workers' have been added into the mix. Most of the Japanese who are currently age 65 or over are of course gone by then...
Is that within the realm of possibility?
If so, what 'Tokyo culture' could possibly emerge?
Hard to imagine in many ways. At least for me.
“In the highest level a man has the look of knowing nothing .”
― Tsunetomo Yamamoto, Hagakure: The Book of the Samurai
2:45 I would like to hear you're thought on this topic
While I concur with several points you've raised, I maintain a more optimistic outlook regarding Japan's future.
Firstly, it's important to note that Japan is far from facing extinction. The Japanese people have inhabited this archipelago continuously for 40,000 years, with the population experiencing a dramatic surge in the past century, surpassing 100 million in only several decades.
Secondly, although no nation has yet devised a foolproof strategy to boost birth rates, demographic shifts occur gradually and predictably, allowing for measured economic preparation and adaptation.
Thirdly, the primary factor behind the disappearance of corporations from regional towns is not purely economic, but rather a complex interplay of geopolitical and national security concerns-a dynamic that is rapidly weakening.
Fourthly, both the Japanese government and numerous corporations are now heavily investing in artificial intelligence and robotics. This echoes the mechanization of Japanese industry during the 1960s, a period of high economic growth catalyzed by a significant labor shortage.
Lastly, there's a growing trend among young people to relocate to rural areas, facilitated by widespread internet access and the convenience of online shopping.
In my view, those who vociferously decry the low birth rate and declining population in media and political discourse often represent leftist or globalist ideologies. Their underlying agenda is to promote increased immigration, to terminate Japan's distinct cultural heritage.
ur first and second point only misdirect the main discussion and didn't address any real effect of shrinking population which are numerous
the third point is directly linked to the shrinking population problem by a very straightforward logic, less people, less incentive for corporate investment
fourth point is also a direct effect of shrinking population problem: less people, more automation
last point might be accurate, but still need to see the long-term effects.
whether or not there is leftist/globalist agenda at play there, the increased immigration is also direct effect of the shrinking population
low-earning job is not preferable any more by a highly develop societies
this is evident in the US and in EU, as well as other "Western" countries, like Australia, Canada
im not an optimist or a pessimist, but a realist and this is the reality of a developed economy: shrinking population, inflaction and high cost of living, increased immigration, etc
Japan will and actually alraedy have the same set of problems the West have
@@Nous98
Frankly, I'm struggling to grasp the intent of your argument. Can you clarify your points
1. and 2. Can you specify the exact issues arising from Japan's current population decline?
3. You mention reduced corporate investment incentives. Can you elaborate on the implications of this? Is our primary concern the overall GDP or GDP per capita?
4. Regarding the trend of increased automation as the population decreases, what specific challenges do you foresee?
5. I question the direct link you draw between population decline and increased immigration. Can you provide a more detailed explanation of how a decreasing population might lead to an increase in low-wage jobs?
The experiences of the United States, EU, Australia, and Canada seem to indicate failures in immigration policy rather than inevitable consequences of demographic shifts.
Lastly, can you specify the interconnection between population decline, inflation, rising living costs, and increased immigration? The relationship between these factors is not immediately apparent to me.
@hayek218 I don't know enough about economics to really address the points you make here. I will say the following, however: I believe Japan is in a unique space where they could create policies and initiatives to try to establish a sustainable population "stabilization." I have said before, in another video (so it's not a secret), that I am ambivalent to the idea of immigration being a solution to Japan's population issue. I feel that with the right policies, with the aid of automation, telework, and AI, Japan could become a leader in what can be done when dealing with a falling population, without the 'necessity' of immigration. Perhaps a pipe dream, but worth a shot in my humble (non economics expert) opinion.
But in a way this is neither here nor there for the purpose of the topic I am on about in the video. If the trend reverses too far in the future, the death of many local cultures will have already occurred, and those cultures will not be revived.
@@Nous98 Wait what is your argument about the first point? You've said nothing concrete or clear about that whatsoever?
How about looking at describing Japan's situation of demographics vs National boundaries and resources first of all?
Japan's population is 126m (iirc) today. Now comparing that population size to California which is 95% the size of Japan which has a population size of about 39m. Let's look back to the end of the Edo period where Japan's population was about 30m and 100% sustainable without external Oil resources or Nuclear. Now from the extreme of the past pre-industrial society to the modern or present society of 126m there's clearly 2 extremes we can pin a future population trajectory on for Japan that manages modernity with a reduced population size that increases SUSTAINABILITY thus reducing for Japan it's Ecological Footprint and Carbon Footprint which in turn will benefit the Environment of Japanese islands and contribute to the Global agenda also.
In short you've not added to the original message on point one at all while proclaiming to dismiss the OP's optimism with apparent realism (where is the realism without correct description?) which should be optimistic about declining population size which augments sustainability of this nation which has limited farm land and limited natural resources per head of population.
IE IN conclusion: Japan HAS to ensure a decline in population to revert between those numbers of 30m (low end) to 126m (high end). A good start would be a natural decline below 100m for example and even that is still too high in likelihood. This is in tandem with transition from say consumer-economic driven society to sustainability-human driven society paradigm shift.
As for point 2: Birth rates increase when conditions of mating and family planning are conducive - it's easy to study this in animals and humans are no different except in complexity eg psychology affecting behaviour etc.
For example, humans will breed when their life-cycles align with their age periods and optimizing their living standards holistically (not necessarily above a necessary materail standard) eg more space for living per family, healthy living, removal of stress, spiritual or meaning in daily life work and social structures around that. All things that are mitigated against by modern Urban-Economic-Consumerism living conditions!
@@Exjapterit’s always “fun” to read immigrants such as yourself not wanting immigrants 😂anyway, the problem with Japan is capitalism. Remove capitalism, they start breeding again and they won’t need immigrants (such as yourself)
I love Japan ❤ I practice Shinto and Zen Buddhism. And my father was stationed in Japan in the 1950s and he fell in love with it. He visited Shinto Jinja and Buddhist temples in Nara As well as taken up judo and some karate while he was in Osaka. He paid his respects in Hiroshima. And told me about it. I hope the culture and the Japanese people don't die out. And I hope the countryside doesn't vanish. I hope to visit Japan someday. I'm in my 60s I was born in the Showa period. It's part of my kick the bucket list. Great video very thought provoking.
Shinto and Buddhism are not in direct danger of dying out, as long as places like Kamakura and Kyoto and other such famous centers of religion and spirituality exist. However, countryside shrines (and their festivals) and temples are in danger of disappearing. I can't explain it, but the thought makes me incredibly sad. Most local festivals I have ever been to, on the surface, seems to follow a similar pattern, but are always different in important ways. A fishing village will have particular songs and dances, while a festival in the mountains will slam the portable shrine (mikoshi) on the ground in order to awaken the gods. They are all unique in their own ways.
where is that you are walking? everywhere looks the same , looks just like Chiba prefecture
This was a shopping arcade street in Yokohama, closest station Gumyoji.
Great insights 🙏
what could be more representative of the japanese summer than... cicadas
judging by how small passerbys appear, you must be around 2 meters
I had the same thought as I walked through the park. They were REALLY loud in person. Not sure what's creating the height illusion though...
TOTALLY AGREE WITH YOU.
We need a proper distance between our eyes and a visible object to see it clearly. Paul, you are the healthy eyes that see clearly. Your love and respect for the Japan-its culture and people, is that appropriate distance. Your experience after 22 years living among the Japanese is the light that shines on the object.
I am totally with you. Job opportunities should be generated more in the suburbs then country side. Universities should be moved away from big cities. University towns will exist. The next generation will look beyond those towns and outward.
In the meantime, elder care centers should be in the country side. Immigrant workers are more than happy to work AND live there. Medical technology allows health care to reach out to remote area.
All the Japanese need is the political will.
Thank you for the comment. We can hope, ne?
There are UA-cam videos about foreigners buying Akiyas in the Japanese countryside. Is that influx of foreigners into the Japanese countryside significant enough to change its culture?
I want to think that, for now at least, these foreigners who desire the peaceful rural Japan life have already bought into the culture and adopted a lot of the sensibilities and such. The big cities however, that may be a bigger challenge.
From what I have seen (on youtube and people I know)- the majority of foreigners who move to the countryside tend to embrace and want to fit in with the local community as much as they can. At least the ones who are actually serious about giving residence in Japan a go. Now that you mention it - since most foreigners live in Tokyo, they aren't put into that same position or opportunity. I think that is why I feel so strongly about all of this - I started off in a countryside community.
@@Exjapter do you reckon your kids will want to stay in a more rural area or also spin off into a city? Or too soon to tell?
In the first 30 seconds of this video I realized that Japanese culture may die away, but the Japanese cicada will forever dominate. :D
They were every bit as dominant 'in person' as they sound on the recording.....
"Authenticity" is a trap. If it's happening in Japan, it is Japanese culture. You cannot force "authenticity", the real world just happens. Things change. As the old man once said, the only constant is change.
Very true. Pachinko is just as much Japanese culture as kabuki.
These videos are so good.
I appreciate the comment.
Thank you for an excellent, thought-provoking video. People like you are the new life force of Japan. Japan is blessed to have adopted such good sons and daughters; I only hope she will have the strength to change.
PS: I don't know what your work is. I am also very passionate about Japan. Hopefully, I could learn something from you and we could work on something together. :)
Interesting comment. What do you have in mind?
@@Exjapter Thank you for your receptive response 😊
I am interested in how to rejuvenate Japan socially and economically, the policies and cultural changes to help Japan attract but also integrate foreign talents, how Japan should navigate the uncertain time ahead.
My background is in international trade, macroecon, geopolitics.
I am moving to Osaka in Jan for a short language course, with focus on staying long-term.
I'm not sure specifically how I can be of help to you yet. But I hope we can meet up when I come to Tokyo.
Thanks again. 😊 And please let me know if I can assist you in anything. I'm from Vietnam. So anything about Japan's role and future in SEAsia, perhaps.
yeah we just "showed up" in the 40s lmao
Pretty much, lol.
Japan is not interested in solutions and the average person is too indifferent to care.
The problem I see from my own students is, they see it as an escalator - of course everything leads to Tokyo. And they don't question it. I don't see it as indifference, but more a lack of critical reflection.
22 Years!!!
You are Strong,Fortune and Lucky ❤
Would it help if Japanese government federalized and moved many domestic government functions into state capitals? Tokyo would act as the capital and house foreign affairs type bureaus and other cities would act as state capitals acting in regards to domestic service bureaus. Like Yokohama becoming the capital of a Kanto state, Hiroshima the capital of a Chugoku state, Fukuoka the capital of a Kyushu state, etc. Then companies that work with government on domestic infrastructure and services would move out of Tokyo.
That's an interesting idea, and could be part of initiatives to diversify ministries across Japan. One thing I forgot to mention in the video is that it seems remarkably foolish to have everything so centralized that a major earthquake takes out all the eggs in the basket at once.
@@Exjapter That's another good point.
Or heaven forbid war.
がんばってね
I think if there was no hospital fees for child births or childcare care was free, then perhaps women may consider having children. I have 2 teenagers and I don’t work. I don’t know how women who work raise kids! I take my hat off to you all
Childcare is the big one, not only the cost but even finding one with openings and is in any way convenient to where one lives. Giving birth in Japan is technically free (you pay up front, but then apply for a reimburse from the government afterwards.)
gotdam sweJ
Bro you made a UA-cam video ? lol I mean come on why not move to inaka somewhere and start a family with Japanese woman yourself and have like 4 kids ? I mean that would be the real solution here
Well, have the woman and 1 kid, but as I mention towards the end, I too am a victim of living in the greater metro area in order to have decent work.
News flash, Japan along with most cultures have been changing for centuries and even thousands of years. It's not that long ago for Japan to have adapted writing from China and adapted it to their own unique style. You can't expect Japan to keep Kabuki theater as their only form of entertainment can you? Japan will never die, it will evolve like so many others. After all, the world has become smaller with travel and internet.
I used Kabuki as an example at the beginning of the video to make the exact same point you do, and to show that's not what I am talking about. With the world being smaller, I think that gives us even stronger tools to preserve what is dying. And the Japanese, who claim at least a wish to preserve traditional Japanese culture, should begin doing so.