Dave has hated on Kyren Williams from the get go and... IM HERE FOR IT, the man had a crazy season arch, if I recall correctly the first 2 games he had 4 tds con like 40 carries for 100 yards, yes he had great games down the stretch, but it was just so improbable everything
Avoid the landmines... and I do not even think of injury with some of these players. When you mentioned James Cook, I immediately flashed back to some doghouse time due to fumbles! That is one of my determinations on whether I want to consider these rookie QB's and backs like MarShawn Lloyd. The idea of these players ending up on the bench for stretches of time due to turnovers makes me crazy! You two did a fine job explaining why you chose these players... to fade a touch... and this was good information and opinions for others to consider. You can lead a horse to water but... you can only shoot it to put it out of "your" misery... that is how the saying goes, right??? Thanks for sharing your Perpetual Sadness! Take care and enjoy!
Rome odunze over james cook. Ya lost me. literally made me get my phone to comment...how tf do you have odunze over him, dude has to compete with dj, Allen AND swift for targets. Cooks has no real competition and their is like 300+ targets that got vacated on the bills offense....you dont think cooks will get a uptick in targets,
Yeah I know Dave’s in on Caleb, but still, without an injury to someone in Chicago I don’t agree with Odunze>Cook. I’m not a believer in Cook at ADP but you can’t argue with his floor.
I agree with everything that was said about Sam Laporta and his current draft position. But nothing in your arguments said why he shouldn't be tight end number one. Everything you argued was that he was going too early and you wouldn't spend the draft capital on him which I agree with but you didn't say why, if all tight ends were available, you wouldn't take him first. That's what ranking actually is obviously. I'd like to hear more who the two tight ends are that you have ranked above him, why they're ranked above him, and how much more confident you are in them.
As much as i want a spot in the listener league, i simply couldn't bring myself to say Arthur Smith is a good coach, but i have no issue at all advising everyone to AVOID THE LANDMINES! A little too late for Pittsburgh though.
You are wrong on Jefferson's stats. The first game you are counting he didn't even start, so it should be thrown out. The bigger issue is that you are only looking at three of the four games he started at the end of the year. In the last four games of the season, he had 476 yards and two TDs. In those four games he averaged 18.65 fantasy points, which would have been WR3 last year in half PPR on a points per game basis. I do think he'll have a limited ceiling with the QBs this year, but you should get your stats straight when discussing these guys.
Genuine question here. When everyone agree that this was one of the weakest RB classes we’ve seen in awhile, why are so many fantasy analysts attempting to pump up rookie RBs from that class as guys who can compete with, or even beat out, guys we’ve seen actually SUCCEED as NFL RBs? It seems kinda wild to me. These rookies are being hella overrated.
@@ferratorr1033 There are a few reasons for the hype about rookie RBs in my opinion. First of all, they may be talking up rookie RBs but very few are actually ranking them higher than NFL starting RBs. Trey Benson has the highest ADP of the rookie RBs, and he’s ranked as RB45 on Footballguys(FBG) and RB39 on FantasyPros(FP) (full PPR rankings). At FBG that’s after every non-rookie starting RB in the NFL. For FP they have Benson ranked 39, Jerome Ford 40, Gus Edwards 41, Blake Corum 42, Antonio Gibson 43 and Chuba Hubbard 45. Ford is the default starting RB in Cleveland if Chubb doesn’t return to start, and even if Ford doesn’t split carries with Chubb, he will split with D’onta Foreman. Any news about Nick Chubb will affect Ford’s ADP. Gus Edwards is technically the starting RB for the Chargers, but it will likely be a committee of Edwards, JK Dobbins, and/or Kimani Vidal. Plus Edwards is 29 and showing signs of regression, while Dobbins is coming off an injury but is still just 25 and is a Jonathan Taylor level talent when healthy. Vidal has also had a good camp. At 42 is Blake Corum, who is expected to get at least 150 touches in the Rams run-heavy offense alongside Kyren Williams, who was an undrafted free agent (so there are plenty who say it won’t take much for Corum to earn an even bigger role as a rookie. Antonio Gibson at 43 is the backup to Rhamondre in New England, a poor offense. Lastly at 44 is Chuba Hubbard, the default starting RB in Carolina until Jonathan Brooks is healthy enough to take over. The few starting RBs that Benson and Corum are ranked over are backup level talents and/or are part of a committee. And it is a fact that at least a couple rookie RBs end up with larger roles than anyone anticipated because the position is so prone to injury it’s unavoidable. For fantasy, trying to get one of those lucky rookies is like getting a winning lottery ticket because you usually can get them in the final round of your draft. So yeah, there’s good reason to be excited about rookie RBs, but for the most part they’re not ranked higher than established starters. Gus Edwards is the one exception this season, but he was only a starter last year because of injuries to Melvin Gordon and Keaton Mitchell. Prior to last season Gus Edwards never rushed more than 144 times, or had more than 6 rushing TDs. And again, he’s 29 going into the season.
@@tmartin8888So, my comment and view here may seem “nitpicky” but I’m not arguing consensus or the ADP rankings per se. But rather those who are making arguments, like in this video, that there’s a legitimate shot these rookies are anything but true handcuffs, to the point that while the rookies may have lower ADPs, talented and proven vets are getting ranked LOWER as a result.
I think the fantasy industry is nuts sometimes. If you don’t think fantasy analysts aren’t immune to the same biases and delusions that fantasy managers are, all you have to do is look at current ECR. My 100% sure-fire fantasy land mine: Marvin Harrison, Jr. Prior to this offseason, rookie WRs were not valued higher than the fourth round. MHJ’s current ECR according to FantasyPros: WR11, #17 overall. That means even in a 10 team league you’ll have to pay a second round pick for him, two full rounds more expensive than any rookie WR in the history of fantasy. Think about all the rookie WRs in recent memory who came into the league with a ton of hype. Julio Jones, OBJ, Calvin “Megatron” Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, AJ Green, Jalen Waddle, Mike Evans. None of them ranked higher than round 4 for fantasy drafts. This is obviously an overreaction to Ja’marr Chase’s rookie year. Fantasy experts are so enamored with the possibility that a rookie WR can hit those kinds of numbers that they’re willfully ignoring the last 50 years of NFL history. But for the sake of argument let’s say you just have to pull the trigger on MHJ in the second round, and he actually produces like a winning lottery ticket. Okay, you get to brag that you took a crazy risk and you got at most one round of value from MHJ. Good job. Will he have won you the fantasy championship? Probably not, because everyone else in round 1 and 2 are taking top fantasy assets too. No, for you to capitalize on a great pick, you have to have gotten good value for your pick. That’s now impossible with MHJ.
You guys are SOOOOOOO WRONG on Achane! He's the BEST RB in Miami and it's not even close, will also be lined up out wide some. Plus he bulked up in the offseason because McDaniel needs him to get more touches. He's basically Jahmyr Gibbs at a discount, and I see him going in the 4th round now in mocks!
Great list other than the bizarre Cook take. The Stroud ADP was a mystery to me. I like him, good situation, but is it really 5 rounds better than guys like Purdy and Goff? Or 3-4 rounds earlier than Prescott and Love? He's falling, but starting to think he wont hit the 80s like I expected so I wlll have virtually none of him.
They're likely not going to be very pass-heavy with Sam Darnold or a rookie QB with minimal pass attempts in college. We actually discussed the fact that Jefferson had a 30% target share during the bad stretch of production last year. Targets are typically a great indicator of fantasy success, but there's a chance that the "flooding" of targets may not be enough to validate a top-6 selection.
There are no doubt, multiple reasons why James Cook may not be an RB1 next season but to suggest that the primary reason will be the presence of Ray Davis is the most nonsensical take I've seen so far this draft season. Do better!
I also mentioned his downtick in efficiency, changes made post-Dorsey, and Buffalo’s desire to find a complementary RB. But at the end of the day, it just comes down to an expected dip in volume. Because Ray Davis is there.
I used Footballguys as my main source of learning when I first started doing office leagues so long ago. Now I am looking to Avoid the Landmines!
Dave has hated on Kyren Williams from the get go and... IM HERE FOR IT, the man had a crazy season arch, if I recall correctly the first 2 games he had 4 tds con like 40 carries for 100 yards, yes he had great games down the stretch, but it was just so improbable everything
Avoid the landmines... and I do not even think of injury with some of these players. When you mentioned James Cook, I immediately flashed back to some doghouse time due to fumbles! That is one of my determinations on whether I want to consider these rookie QB's and backs like MarShawn Lloyd. The idea of these players ending up on the bench for stretches of time due to turnovers makes me crazy! You two did a fine job explaining why you chose these players... to fade a touch... and this was good information and opinions for others to consider. You can lead a horse to water but... you can only shoot it to put it out of "your" misery... that is how the saying goes, right??? Thanks for sharing your Perpetual Sadness! Take care and enjoy!
Rome odunze over james cook. Ya lost me. literally made me get my phone to comment...how tf do you have odunze over him, dude has to compete with dj, Allen AND swift for targets. Cooks has no real competition and their is like 300+ targets that got vacated on the bills offense....you dont think cooks will get a uptick in targets,
Yeah when Dave said Odunze > Cook I was surprised. But Dave has good reasoning. (Alfredo)
Yeah that’s quite a stretch
Nah I’m with u, that’s just a straight up bad take
James Cook has a floor of 1200 total yards (800 rushing and 400 receiving). There's no way Rome even sniffs 1000 yards. Not in 2024, anyway.
Yeah I know Dave’s in on Caleb, but still, without an injury to someone in Chicago I don’t agree with Odunze>Cook. I’m not a believer in Cook at ADP but you can’t argue with his floor.
Planning to avoid the landmines in my keeper. Got 10 tens in late rounds. Grabbing some absolutes early.
I agree with everything that was said about Sam Laporta and his current draft position. But nothing in your arguments said why he shouldn't be tight end number one. Everything you argued was that he was going too early and you wouldn't spend the draft capital on him which I agree with but you didn't say why, if all tight ends were available, you wouldn't take him first. That's what ranking actually is obviously. I'd like to hear more who the two tight ends are that you have ranked above him, why they're ranked above him, and how much more confident you are in them.
James Cook was the starter week 1. Not next man up due to injury
Well dose it count if I took achane in the late 4th round
That’s a solid draft cost
Amazong draft stock never seen him go past the second round oddly
Achane : my take is they will run and use him, because they have 3 sound RBs.. im taking all 3 of them in drafts.. easy deal
54:46 You will be…😐
55:13 Wouldn’t the incumbent and current starter be the same person?🤷🏾♂️
You’re absolutely right, I misspoke.
You crushed last year with this video.. you have my attention
Thank you 🙏
As much as i want a spot in the listener league, i simply couldn't bring myself to say Arthur Smith is a good coach, but i have no issue at all advising everyone to AVOID THE LANDMINES! A little too late for Pittsburgh though.
"Welcome to the quarterback show, where we don't have to mention how lousy a TE option is Tyler Conklin!"
You get it
1 Qb full ppr 12 team season league. I can keep Anthony Richardson in the 11th round, Laporta in the 5th and/or Tank Dell in the 14th round
Tank in the 14th is so good. But I think Richardson in the 11th is a legit league winner.
The Podcast of Perpetual Sadness....
You are wrong on Jefferson's stats. The first game you are counting he didn't even start, so it should be thrown out. The bigger issue is that you are only looking at three of the four games he started at the end of the year. In the last four games of the season, he had 476 yards and two TDs. In those four games he averaged 18.65 fantasy points, which would have been WR3 last year in half PPR on a points per game basis. I do think he'll have a limited ceiling with the QBs this year, but you should get your stats straight when discussing these guys.
Moral of the story is Dave and Alfredo's ranks are more realistic than the rest of FG.
Guys one of those games back after injury Justin Jefferson only played like 20 percent of the snaps.
How did you miss Garrett Wilson. He is being drafted at an ADP that is higher than he ever came close to.
Only hard part is picking from 5-7. St. Brown or Bijan the RB1
Olave as a round 2 WR is about as mind-blowing as Kadarius Toney being drafted high last year
Genuine question here. When everyone agree that this was one of the weakest RB classes we’ve seen in awhile, why are so many fantasy analysts attempting to pump up rookie RBs from that class as guys who can compete with, or even beat out, guys we’ve seen actually SUCCEED as NFL RBs? It seems kinda wild to me. These rookies are being hella overrated.
@@ferratorr1033 There are a few reasons for the hype about rookie RBs in my opinion. First of all, they may be talking up rookie RBs but very few are actually ranking them higher than NFL starting RBs.
Trey Benson has the highest ADP of the rookie RBs, and he’s ranked as RB45 on Footballguys(FBG) and RB39 on FantasyPros(FP) (full PPR rankings). At FBG that’s after every non-rookie starting RB in the NFL. For FP they have Benson ranked 39, Jerome Ford 40, Gus Edwards 41, Blake Corum 42, Antonio Gibson 43 and Chuba Hubbard 45.
Ford is the default starting RB in Cleveland if Chubb doesn’t return to start, and even if Ford doesn’t split carries with Chubb, he will split with D’onta Foreman. Any news about Nick Chubb will affect Ford’s ADP.
Gus Edwards is technically the starting RB for the Chargers, but it will likely be a committee of Edwards, JK Dobbins, and/or Kimani Vidal. Plus Edwards is 29 and showing signs of regression, while Dobbins is coming off an injury but is still just 25 and is a Jonathan Taylor level talent when healthy. Vidal has also had a good camp.
At 42 is Blake Corum, who is expected to get at least 150 touches in the Rams run-heavy offense alongside Kyren Williams, who was an undrafted free agent (so there are plenty who say it won’t take much for Corum to earn an even bigger role as a rookie.
Antonio Gibson at 43 is the backup to Rhamondre in New England, a poor offense.
Lastly at 44 is Chuba Hubbard, the default starting RB in Carolina until Jonathan Brooks is healthy enough to take over.
The few starting RBs that Benson and Corum are ranked over are backup level talents and/or are part of a committee. And it is a fact that at least a couple rookie RBs end up with larger roles than anyone anticipated because the position is so prone to injury it’s unavoidable. For fantasy, trying to get one of those lucky rookies is like getting a winning lottery ticket because you usually can get them in the final round of your draft. So yeah, there’s good reason to be excited about rookie RBs, but for the most part they’re not ranked higher than established starters. Gus Edwards is the one exception this season, but he was only a starter last year because of injuries to Melvin Gordon and Keaton Mitchell. Prior to last season Gus Edwards never rushed more than 144 times, or had more than 6 rushing TDs. And again, he’s 29 going into the season.
@@tmartin8888So, my comment and view here may seem “nitpicky” but I’m not arguing consensus or the ADP rankings per se. But rather those who are making arguments, like in this video, that there’s a legitimate shot these rookies are anything but true handcuffs, to the point that while the rookies may have lower ADPs, talented and proven vets are getting ranked LOWER as a result.
Avoid the landmines! Never forget Mike Tolbert
Mike Davis?
@@johnjacobs3601 that's what I meant
@@All22_FF I fell victim, and I KNEW he was not going to pan out 🤦
I think the fantasy industry is nuts sometimes. If you don’t think fantasy analysts aren’t immune to the same biases and delusions that fantasy managers are, all you have to do is look at current ECR. My 100% sure-fire fantasy land mine: Marvin Harrison, Jr.
Prior to this offseason, rookie WRs were not valued higher than the fourth round. MHJ’s current ECR according to FantasyPros: WR11, #17 overall. That means even in a 10 team league you’ll have to pay a second round pick for him, two full rounds more expensive than any rookie WR in the history of fantasy. Think about all the rookie WRs in recent memory who came into the league with a ton of hype. Julio Jones, OBJ, Calvin “Megatron” Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, AJ Green, Jalen Waddle, Mike Evans. None of them ranked higher than round 4 for fantasy drafts.
This is obviously an overreaction to Ja’marr Chase’s rookie year. Fantasy experts are so enamored with the possibility that a rookie WR can hit those kinds of numbers that they’re willfully ignoring the last 50 years of NFL history.
But for the sake of argument let’s say you just have to pull the trigger on MHJ in the second round, and he actually produces like a winning lottery ticket. Okay, you get to brag that you took a crazy risk and you got at most one round of value from MHJ. Good job. Will he have won you the fantasy championship? Probably not, because everyone else in round 1 and 2 are taking top fantasy assets too. No, for you to capitalize on a great pick, you have to have gotten good value for your pick. That’s now impossible with MHJ.
In order to avoid the landmines, one must embrace the landmines. Radical acceptance.
Tyler Conklin boutta be a PPR MACHIIINE
You guys are SOOOOOOO WRONG on Achane! He's the BEST RB in Miami and it's not even close, will also be lined up out wide some. Plus he bulked up in the offseason because McDaniel needs him to get more touches. He's basically Jahmyr Gibbs at a discount, and I see him going in the 4th round now in mocks!
Nobody said he's not the best RB in Miami. If he's going in the 4th round that's a great price, but his currently ADP is at the end of the 2nd round.
I feel like Artax from The Neverending Story after listening to this friggin episode. 😢😂 Avoid the Landmines and the Swamp of Sadness!
Atreyu was heartbroken. Artax sunk right in front of him 😭
@@johnjacobs3601 So was I. 😢😭😥
Avoid the landmines! Don’t draft RB who went to new teams. Just not a high % play.
“Avoid the “Arthur Smith’s” Landmines”
I agree💯
Avoid the landmines!
I say this on every podcast I listen to St Brown is gonna be WR1
Avoid the land mines, but keep drafting Tyler Conklin 😈
hahaha 😂
Great list other than the bizarre Cook take. The Stroud ADP was a mystery to me. I like him, good situation, but is it really 5 rounds better than guys like Purdy and Goff? Or 3-4 rounds earlier than Prescott and Love? He's falling, but starting to think he wont hit the 80s like I expected so I wlll have virtually none of him.
Avoid the land mines…..
such as praising Arthur Smith as being a good coach! 😖😖😖
Not really sure why Tyler Conklin keeps catching strays. Aaron Rodgers TE are always productive and he wasn't obsolete with their horrible QBs.
Vikings are not going to be run-heavy with Aaron Jones, plus Hockenson looks to be out for weeks. JJ is going to be flooded with targets.
They're likely not going to be very pass-heavy with Sam Darnold or a rookie QB with minimal pass attempts in college. We actually discussed the fact that Jefferson had a 30% target share during the bad stretch of production last year. Targets are typically a great indicator of fantasy success, but there's a chance that the "flooding" of targets may not be enough to validate a top-6 selection.
Avoid the land mines
Avoid the land mines!
TG the leagues I'm in flexed th TE position.
Avoid the landmines & the hand grenades
Avoid the landmine
If you have a player ranked 12th and he’s going at the 12th for the position then wtf are you talking about here ?
did you listen to the pod at all?
Avoid the landmines
Avoid the land mines.
👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
Avoid the land lines, stay mobile
Not sure I agree with Puka he can break fantasy
Avoid the landmines.
Oh yeah avoid the landmines
AVOID THE LANDMINES!!!
Kupp will be good don’t like puka
NOlave for me personally, Derek “Crash” Carr stinks🤮
Lol, "we see it every year except for that 5 year run Kelce went on " 😅😂
.
Ok enough with the sad episodes
More waffles.
There are no doubt, multiple reasons why James Cook may not be an RB1 next season but to suggest that the primary reason will be the presence of Ray Davis is the most nonsensical take I've seen so far this draft season. Do better!
I also mentioned his downtick in efficiency, changes made post-Dorsey, and Buffalo’s desire to find a complementary RB. But at the end of the day, it just comes down to an expected dip in volume. Because Ray Davis is there.
Ray Davis could easily be this year's Tank Bigsby.
Avoid the land mines
Avoid the landmines!
Avoid the landmines
Avoid the landmines!