How many of you test impossible to execute strategies with tens of thousands of real money-dollars using bots you've never written the very first time you're told about the strategy? 😂
I made a strategy that has an 80 percent win rate with a sometimes different win to loss ratio. The bot made money during the back test between 2000 and 2021 therefore proving one can make money in Forex consistently. Price may be random or price may not be random regardless if the probability is a 50% percent the price will go up or down within a specific time the probability is not 50 percent that a using a trailing stop with one put order and one call order for example will not get a profit. While over 90 percent of traders lose money and most of the rest seemingly barely understand the market and money management that does not mean it is not possible. How can randomness in the market get proved 100 percent? edit: I tested hundreds of bots over two months and the amount of hours is equal to over a week, it was hard and I magically did not think of the entry and exists during the first day. I did not program the bot to use any indicators but made something similar to candle sticks. Forex is an evolving field, some people make money some people don't, if you can invent the something new use it and the is no way to predict with 100 percent certainty something cannot be achieved. Spent an average of around five hours a day doing this and got burned out and running on an hour of sleep. The macd, rsi, scholastic by itself and all of the other indicators do not by themselves have over a 50 percent win rate on the forex market. All the courses, the day traders claiming they are making a profit from these indicators alone and they work are most likely false. backtest them
@Raven Gaming When back tested the macd, rsi, ma, Ema, stochastic, Bollinger bands and so on do not have over a 50 percent win rate using the buy and sell signals. For example the RSI may be profitable during a ranging market and the beginning and end of trends but in between the losses are bigger then profits. I uploaded a back test video proving the validity of the back tested code I have not tested the ea on the live market and while the market changes the profits remain almost the same. I did not know about Renaissance technologies what types of algorithms are used?
I'm a software tester. I ALWAYS use the credit card of my boss to test HIS system that the people HE hired have made. (But also advice him to check his payment system does not have a 'sandbox' mode)
Just a thank you comment. I did many courses here and there, and tried reading blogs and articles, but your videos teach me new information every time. I want to thank you for your honest videos. "Realisation of ignorance, initiates it's destruction" . Thank you
Prices in short term doesn’t follow a Brownian Motion. This is because BM assumes normal distribution and financial time series is proven that it doesn’t follow a normal distribution. An example of this is this why now these days Black Scholes model doesn’t work at all, it assumes a ND.
@@antheajaars6657 really?? You take one of his courses?? I think he does a mixture of short-term and long-term … although time horizon has lengthened somewhat in recent years. Why so defensive??
Timescale is important... unfortunately day trading is too short. The shorter the timescale is the more random the price is, also the price range is reduced as the timescale is reduced.
Just as an FYI, as a tax accountant, an IRS audited tax return isn’t really a thing. I think you meant the audited financial statements or Professional prepared tax returns (two different things but both I think would be better terms to use). Audited returns are returns that are flagged for review by the IRS for potentially mistaking income, expenses, taking credits you don’t qualify for etc. Sorry! I’m a tax nerd!
I was thinking same too but I think he meant a return confirmed by IRS. Assumption is you wouldn’t lie to the IRS. I don’t think he meant “audited” since if you get audited by the IRS as an individual you must be up to something.
I have an issue with the conclusion of the paper presented at 7:45. I'm not surprised that the more trading days there are more people lose, since this is just the negative expectancy playing out. But the time frame traders are observed is too short. I would argue that pretty much all profitable traders need multiple years to become profitable, which means it is expected to have a negative expectancy in the first year. A study over 5 or 10 years would have been much more valuable and could give a more accurate representation of how many people make money longterm.
bro the paper he presented is very famous, eugene fama 3-factor model literally came from that and yes they examined data for a long time which they acquired from the brokerage firm. This paper he presented is taught in all investments course, conclusion: Individual investors only make money (+alpha) through investing in local firms (inside information/network)
Maybe price action is random in the short term, but I'm a swing trader/position trader. If price was a random walk, then trends wouldn't exist and markets wouldn't be cyclical.
I think you nailed it! His intention here is for UA-cam Views. Anyone who has studied gambling knows Martingale and knows how risky it is. I think the fact that he reviews it only after the fact is total BS.
You found Ol’ CamFous The best Trading Marketer Ever! He has admitted he’s loss more money trading and made more selling courses lol dudes making millions though heavy sigh Martingale though martingale…
Sorry to break it to you coding Jesus but while coins and price don't have memory, the participants in the markets do. The participants drive the prices and they do so based on their memories of what's happened in the past which impacts their expectations of what will happen in the future. 🤷♂️ and no one needs to exactly predict a price. Just being right 51% of the time with predicting if the next bar will be green or red is enough to make a nice profit over time.
I don’t understand quant-maybe one day- but this video made me classify myself as turtlian rabbit - I manage my own portfolio but I didn’t give up my day job. I try to discern investable companies (turtle) and then it’s casino action where I make frequent trades rabbit) on a monthly basis. Thanks to an overwhelming bull market, I can’t tell if I actually suck at this- but I 100% agree that day trading is a fools errand. Thanks for stimulating thoughts for us all- good luck
I don't mind agreeing to the short-term price fluctuations being random Brownian Motion but it seems clear there's more to it than that even in the short-mid term. You can see "the trend" hold more often than not in all sorts of situations. If it were truly random, the price of everything would be fuzzy and flat. I would love to work out even roughly how trends form and hold or break but I suppose there are so many variables it appears close to random.
If price is random then surely large funds would not be making any profit… and how do you trade random price? In my opinion (this is only observational), price can be defined however one prefers and that very definition is the filter through which they trade it. To me, if there was one force that drove price, it would be liquidity. I’d like to hear your thoughts. Thank you.
This guys on point, one thing I learned over time is that trading etc is like riding a bike it takes time to learn and your strategy is a movement from knowledge not charts, charts just help implement when to enter or exit, I would listen to this guy and don’t listen to the fakes the guy he’s reviewing has been trading charts for years it’s gambling, learn the history of our economy I hope that helps and bots only go so far if the bot is not set up around our historical structure your doomed I would love to sit down with this guy just bc he knows coding and I know how to actually invest lol……. I don’t know coding so helps with security and a lot more…. Overall day trading is a skill you can’t pay for it you need to learn
I'm having a hard time grappling with the ramdomness of price concept, I must admit. The fact NVDA is at 1000 is not due to randomness. It is due to the fact it was at 999 one trade before. If price was random, NVDA would show 1000 one second, then 259.75 the next, then 11.25, then 1453.50 the next, etc. Can you elaborate on that ?
I think he means in the short term, any given second the chance of it going up or down is practically 50%, not that there is no fundamental reason for the price to be around a certain amount
That's why I will use Kelly criterion or at least half of it... In a lot of books written by Ed Thorp (and not only) is shown that the Kelly criterion is better than martingale in a long term if you play in the real world.
I do not daytrading and I believe that 99% of the gurus on youtube are scammers. But ... casino is gambling daytrading is not the same thing. Roulette is gambling because, as you said, each event is totally independent from the previous one. Instead, day trading is made up of people with opposing interests. Example: you go to the supermarket and zucchini cost $2 per kilo. If you know that next week there will be a farmers' strike or that there will be a hailstorm, the price of zucchini will most likely rise. There will be half a zucchini on the market and you can sell them for $ 4 a kilo. You can't do this if you go to the casino. Therefore it is not at all true that in the market every instant is independent of the other. They are always related by the law of supply and demand. Always!
Run an autocorrelation function plot of the changes in asset prices, see the lags there, some maybe be breaking the 95% CI, but even then the autocorrelation of the lags should still be
The martingale system, after 20 "flips" would be a 1 in 1,000,000 chance of occurring...but that is better odds than most lotteries. So 20 losses in a row can happen and does happen. At $10 initial investment you will end up doubling 20 times and will end up spending $10,485,760 to earn back your $10.
The casino games are random, following a trend wouldn't make the martingale work...but the thing is if you use it on trading it might work because majority of traders are following the trend and because of those majorities, the probability of losing streak decrease, and the probability of extending the trend duration is higher ...so it's not that it wouldn't work...but it's not the best strategy for emotional traders or low pocket individual the doesn't have another strategy except for the martingale
this is surprisingly good. i fell on the video following a Coffeezilla rant (always funny). i was expecting scammy crap. but congrats Coding Jesus you talk like a scientist and i agreed with all of your comments. i am gonna listen to your "stop loss = scam" video now. i agree already, haha. because stop loss is just a target for someone to go take you out... let's hear what you say. i might subscribe. thx for making this content.
Yes events are independent but central limit theorem dictates that over a long period things average out. However because exchanges are crooks, funds are not unlimited and stocks can go bust that rediculuos theory also know as double or quits doesn't apply.
In one of my first probability courses, we had to prove that for any finite amount of money, the probability of losing everything using the Martingale system is 100%
when he said martingale i knew he is a guru literally no one uses martingale only if you like to do a gamble because martinge is win big lose big at short time, no martingale system will ever work in long term
Just a simple note , Regarding the number of deals, you can make the strategy in more than one account, 10 accounts, for example, that allow opening 10 times the number of Trades, and the problem of unlimited funds remains only. And you can get rid of this problem like that by studying the longest direct decline or rise without changing the path for a particular pair, you may find a pair for which the strategy can be applied
It seems like this strategy could work on a long time frame with the s&p 500 or qqq if you predict a large pullback. For example if you have 50,000cash. If the market drops 5% you buy $1000, if the market drops another 5% you buy in $2000. if the market drop another 5% you buy $4000. at some point the market will reverse before you run out of money and your cost basis will be pretty close to the bottom. So best case scenario is when you reach your maximum allowed funds the market would have dropped 50-55% which is about as much as the market is going to drop anyway in worse case scenario. So in most scenarios you would have not ran out of money before the market reversal.
I'm neither a trader nor a programmer and only got here by accident. To me, the only reasonable approach to gambling is to invest only a fraction of your wins, once you made a win on the limit you put on yourself betting. You reach that limit not having won? Walk. I've never even gambled though, but that would be my approach.
ON markets are random. what about adverse effect? and larger blocks of orders broken down into smaller blocks being injected into the markets? don't such inventories offer distinct price behavior??
Hi Trading Jesus. Why do you claim that price movement is completely random? Price movement indeed can be random, yet it also can have inefficiencies. It depends on the market and timeframe. Some timeframes tend to be more in trend, daily and weekly. There are markets that have obvious inefficiencies. For example, the US penny stock market. It consistently has ''pump and dump'' stocks, which you can short as they start to fall after the huge rise and hype.
I was going to say Martingale before I saw the video. Also another thing to note, if it needs to assume that you have an infinite amount of money, that in itself nullifies the idea of using Any strategy including Martingale, because you cannot add to an infinite balance
there is a little bit of randomness regarding price, but if you can think outside of what you've been taught in your academic lessons, which is respectable nevertheless, you might be able to spot major resistance and support levels on most assets which is part of technical analysis which you call it chart astrology, but is more real than you think. this is where retail traders can make their $.
Sorry, but I don't agree that day trading is gambling like you said, opinion from a software engineer. Gambling definition is when you're taking an action based on no criteria/variables but just on probabilities.
If you think of a round in the martingale as losing until you win and plan to play until you win $X you will be betting X/win_amount rounds. If you calculate the odds of a streak of losses losing you an amount equal to $X in X/win_amount rounds the odds are the same as the odds of winning a single flip. I mean if you think about it every time you double the target amount you want to win you are doubling the amount of rounds and so doubling the odds of rolling a bigger losing streak. You may as well bet the entire target amount on the first bet because your odds of a win are the same all the way up to whatever bankroll you have or house limit there is you should not play unless you are ok betting the your full bank roll or house limit in the first game.
You believe that the markets are efficient models with random motions, so it becomes impossible for the retails to outperform them by applying any strategies at all. I don't think that's entirely true, because the participants make biased, often poorly-informed decisions towards buying or selling the assets. This creates a two-way process. The participants influence the price, and in turn, the prevailing price trends influence their further decisions.
SIR, Trading forex supply & demand if 4 hour trend is up,& 1 hour trend is up as well--then on 15 minute time frame chart one has to wait until price comes down to support level(derived from 1H chart) & using smaller 15 minutes chart watch that this level holds & then buy. Next step would be how this long position attacks higher supply level ON THE SAME 1H chart & only sell if forex pair turns down at this higher supply level--otherwise just hold the position on to next higher supply level ON SAME 1HOUR CHART--any modifications you suggest
Hi, I'm a day trader and I'd be happy to prove you day trading price is not random and can be actually traded with straight rules that go against the 95%. Keep up the good work. cheers.
These day trading gurus are all full of nonsense but if you attack or critize them, they'll never show cold bullet proof evidence that they are profitable, they'll just block you or call you a hater/troll.
Yes. They will not show IRS Audited Tax Returns. Anyone who has a reading comprehension level of a fourth grader and who has read any academic paper on financial markets knows that it is impossible to generate alpha in the long run using technical analysis. Furthermore I do not care if they are profitable, which is possible in a bubble of time (just like I can have a profitable day in the casino). I care if they generate alpha consistently .
@@CodingJesus yup keep exposing these clowns! try madaz money, my investing club, timothy sykes, or warrior trading. those clowns run the penny stock game... as well as dux who u already showed was a joke
Markets are not memoryless processes; they tend to not follow a Brownian motion. But yes, this day-trading bot business is a recipe for ruin (the gambler variety).
I don't want to debate gravity with anyone, but wouldn't you agree that the variance on a price time series is partly explained by randomness and partly explained by "stuff that happens out there in the real world" (notwithstanding EFH)?
Jesus! Jesus! Since the first time I watched one of your videos, now I keep getting more and more of them popping up on my dashboard. The problem I have with your trading gospel, is there are no practicals, it’s all theory. It's like "faith" without "works"!!
Position limits are very real but picture the poor guy who'd start this doubling down bot a few days before the settlement of a physically delivered contract such as oil or lean hogs. he lala xD
Hello Coding Jesus, what do you think about Financial Engineering Masters course offered by world quant University as a path to break into the quant Space?
how is the price is purely a brownian motion like phenomena, and an independent event if it most of the times it fall into support and resistance levels? i mean it can go either up and down i get it, but does it not hold a resemblance of memory ? maybe inherit by the memory of the traders using metrics to determine where to place bets
I totally forgot what I was going to say. That's right, the martingale derivations. I have one, I have it in my copy of World Scientific of Futures Markets.. first chapter, is a description of the market as a martingale. I was a chemist, what is Brownian motion, what is it specifically. Brownian motion is the description of the motion of a particle, in solution or similar with other particles.. how do you describe the location of that particle over time, and the motion is caused by collisions.. however you're not describing the collisions, just the overall motion.. mostly a description of diffusion. So I definitely have this write up, as a proof. So there is no proof, that the market obeys Brownian motion.. because it doesn't. However, there are proofs based on a theoretical market that has price changes by Brownian motion. That's not quite a real market though, because prices are moving in the direction of certain prices favorably... there are proofs based on Brownian motion, but it is not proven that the market is actually described that way. I'm looking at some of the books, there are models that sound more correct.
Yo Jesus i want to comment on your remark RE 8 tail flips, next one is more likely to be heads. Your reasoning, each flip is independant event. I think thats somewhat incorrect of terms of reasoning. The true reason why there is no "higher" chance for flip #9 to be heads is that for such a chance to exist, you would have to clearly define a maximum amount coin of tosses. As it is, the amount of coin tosses basically goes to infinity, in which case by mathematics its impossible to assign a chance as the series is unlimited. I hope this makes sense. If you would however rule that you would do 9 flips, and the the first 8 come out flips, then i believe going by stastics indeed you would be overdue a heads flip and it would be correct to bet on it (in fact you should raise your beginning with flip 5).
It is not incorrect to state that every coin flip is an independant event. The main argument is some laymen actually believe losing consecutively will increase the chance of you winning on the next flip, as if every flip has a probability effect on the next flips. Also, you’re not overdue a win on the ninth flip if you lost the first eight flips lol.
Those statistics apply to the probability of your coin flips being 8 heads consecutively not to your next one. Its like betting that a 50-50 scenario coinflip going to one side 8 times consecutively is a good bet to make, even 2 consecutively would be a good probablity bet, but interms of the next one coin flip that will be 50-50 even if its flipped 10 times to heads consecutively
no, you are wrong. you can make money as a day trader just u have to be able to control yourself, like you would be a fricking machine, than u can make money it is not even so difficult. TA works more than not. probability game, nothing more.
Very few. I applaud you if you are truly profitable. Most people get upset with day traders when they start selling courses, and promising huge and most importantly quick returns. This leads unsuspecting people down a dangerous path. There’s no reason for profitable traders/ business people in general to selling their secrets to the public. Those are the types I myself and many anti-day traders are against. However, those who aren’t targeting innocent people & are privately profitable, wether that be professionally or for themselves I have no problem with.
Again, Jesus is wrong. That’s fine, cause you are not a quant, just a developer. For those who wants to know, here’s why martingale strategy doesn’t work, the assumption of martingale strategy is the asset return is a sub-martingale. Which in most cases not, in real market
Daytraders are NOT risk seeking. Daytraders are Risk Managers. You are talking about gamblers. I don't know how to code so don't talk about it. Maybe you can learn something from me.
How many of you test impossible to execute strategies with tens of thousands of real money-dollars using bots you've never written the very first time you're told about the strategy? 😂
I made a strategy that has an 80 percent win rate with a sometimes different win to loss ratio. The bot made money during the back test between 2000 and 2021 therefore proving one can make money in Forex consistently. Price may be random or price may not be random regardless if the probability is a 50% percent the price will go up or down within a specific time the probability is not 50 percent that a using a trailing stop with one put order and one call order for example will not get a profit. While over 90 percent of traders lose money and most of the rest seemingly barely understand the market and money management that does not mean it is not possible. How can randomness in the market get proved 100 percent?
edit: I tested hundreds of bots over two months and the amount of hours is equal to over a week, it was hard and I magically did not think of the entry and exists during the first day. I did not program the bot to use any indicators but made something similar to candle sticks. Forex is an evolving field, some people make money some people don't, if you can invent the something new use it and the is no way to predict with 100 percent certainty something cannot be achieved. Spent an average of around five hours a day doing this and got burned out and running on an hour of sleep.
The macd, rsi, scholastic by itself and all of the other indicators do not by themselves have over a 50 percent win rate on the forex market. All the courses, the day traders claiming they are making a profit from these indicators alone and they work are most likely false. backtest them
@Raven Gaming When back tested the macd, rsi, ma, Ema, stochastic, Bollinger bands and so on do not have over a 50 percent win rate using the buy and sell signals. For example the RSI may be profitable during a ranging market and the beginning and end of trends but in between the losses are bigger then profits. I uploaded a back test video proving the validity of the back tested code I have not tested the ea on the live market and while the market changes the profits remain almost the same. I did not know about Renaissance technologies what types of algorithms are used?
So who should we follow? Any suggestions
Yes infeeed. I love you both
I'm a software tester. I ALWAYS use the credit card of my boss to test HIS system that the people HE hired have made.
(But also advice him to check his payment system does not have a 'sandbox' mode)
Just a thank you comment.
I did many courses here and there, and tried reading blogs and articles, but your videos teach me new information every time. I want to thank you for your honest videos.
"Realisation of ignorance, initiates it's destruction" . Thank you
Prices in short term doesn’t follow a Brownian Motion. This is because BM assumes normal distribution and financial time series is proven that it doesn’t follow a normal distribution. An example of this is this why now these days Black Scholes model doesn’t work at all, it assumes a ND.
The larger the time frames, the more probability of being profitable.
I'm shocked that day traders use the martingale strategy.
You should do an interview with Anton Kreil ;)
I’d love to see that
Oh that could be wicked!
Why Anton Kriel. He’s not so much into day trading anymore
@@stefanbelkowski6153 he was never into day trading fool
@@antheajaars6657 really?? You take one of his courses?? I think he does a mixture of short-term and long-term … although time horizon has lengthened somewhat in recent years.
Why so defensive??
Timescale is important... unfortunately day trading is too short. The shorter the timescale is the more random the price is, also the price range is reduced as the timescale is reduced.
Just as an FYI, as a tax accountant, an IRS audited tax return isn’t really a thing. I think you meant the audited financial statements or Professional prepared tax returns (two different things but both I think would be better terms to use).
Audited returns are returns that are flagged for review by the IRS for potentially mistaking income, expenses, taking credits you don’t qualify for etc.
Sorry! I’m a tax nerd!
I was thinking same too but I think he meant a return confirmed by IRS. Assumption is you wouldn’t lie to the IRS. I don’t think he meant “audited” since if you get audited by the IRS as an individual you must be up to something.
Stumbled across this video. Never comment on video's ever really but you nailed this. Definitely one new follower, instant follow here!
I have an issue with the conclusion of the paper presented at 7:45. I'm not surprised that the more trading days there are more people lose, since this is just the negative expectancy playing out. But the time frame traders are observed is too short. I would argue that pretty much all profitable traders need multiple years to become profitable, which means it is expected to have a negative expectancy in the first year. A study over 5 or 10 years would have been much more valuable and could give a more accurate representation of how many people make money longterm.
bro the paper he presented is very famous, eugene fama 3-factor model literally came from that and yes they examined data for a long time which they acquired from the brokerage firm. This paper he presented is taught in all investments course, conclusion: Individual investors only make money (+alpha) through investing in local firms (inside information/network)
agreed, but most people fail and quit within the first few years.
Maybe price action is random in the short term, but I'm a swing trader/position trader. If price was a random walk, then trends wouldn't exist and markets wouldn't be cyclical.
I think you nailed it! His intention here is for UA-cam Views. Anyone who has studied gambling knows Martingale and knows how risky it is. I think the fact that he reviews it only after the fact is total BS.
You found Ol’ CamFous The best Trading Marketer Ever! He has admitted he’s loss more money trading and made more selling courses lol dudes making millions though heavy sigh Martingale though martingale…
Sorry to break it to you coding Jesus but while coins and price don't have memory, the participants in the markets do. The participants drive the prices and they do so based on their memories of what's happened in the past which impacts their expectations of what will happen in the future. 🤷♂️ and no one needs to exactly predict a price. Just being right 51% of the time with predicting if the next bar will be green or red is enough to make a nice profit over time.
YOU JUST AGREED to what he said its gambling and not proven
lol. reminds me of the 28 yo kid who destroyed england's oldest bank
You’re right. Anyone in their right mind would never use real money to test a trading bot for the first time!
I don’t understand quant-maybe one day- but this video made me classify myself as turtlian rabbit - I manage my own portfolio but I didn’t give up my day job. I try to discern investable companies (turtle) and then it’s casino action where I make frequent trades rabbit) on a monthly basis. Thanks to an overwhelming bull market, I can’t tell if I actually suck at this- but I 100% agree that day trading is a fools errand. Thanks for stimulating thoughts for us all- good luck
I don't mind agreeing to the short-term price fluctuations being random Brownian Motion but it seems clear there's more to it than that even in the short-mid term. You can see "the trend" hold more often than not in all sorts of situations. If it were truly random, the price of everything would be fuzzy and flat. I would love to work out even roughly how trends form and hold or break but I suppose there are so many variables it appears close to random.
If price is random then surely large funds would not be making any profit… and how do you trade random price? In my opinion (this is only observational), price can be defined however one prefers and that very definition is the filter through which they trade it. To me, if there was one force that drove price, it would be liquidity. I’d like to hear your thoughts. Thank you.
He definitely lost $72,000 as he clearly cannot afford a decent shirt 😆
This guys on point, one thing I learned over time is that trading etc is like riding a bike it takes time to learn and your strategy is a movement from knowledge not charts, charts just help implement when to enter or exit, I would listen to this guy and don’t listen to the fakes the guy he’s reviewing has been trading charts for years it’s gambling, learn the history of our economy
I hope that helps and bots only go so far if the bot is not set up around our historical structure your doomed
I would love to sit down with this guy just bc he knows coding and I know how to actually invest lol……. I don’t know coding so helps with security and a lot more….
Overall day trading is a skill you can’t pay for it you need to learn
I'm having a hard time grappling with the ramdomness of price concept, I must admit.
The fact NVDA is at 1000 is not due to randomness. It is due to the fact it was at 999 one trade before.
If price was random, NVDA would show 1000 one second, then 259.75 the next, then 11.25, then 1453.50 the next, etc.
Can you elaborate on that ?
I think he means in the short term, any given second the chance of it going up or down is practically 50%, not that there is no fundamental reason for the price to be around a certain amount
That's why I will use Kelly criterion or at least half of it... In a lot of books written by Ed Thorp (and not only) is shown that the Kelly criterion is better than martingale in a long term if you play in the real world.
thanks for mentioning, i will check this!
Check this ua-cam.com/video/V4zoOKKcO4M/v-deo.html
I do not daytrading and I believe that 99% of the gurus on youtube are scammers. But ... casino is gambling daytrading is not the same thing. Roulette is gambling because, as you said, each event is totally independent from the previous one. Instead, day trading is made up of people with opposing interests. Example: you go to the supermarket and zucchini cost $2 per kilo. If you know that next week there will be a farmers' strike or that there will be a hailstorm, the price of zucchini will most likely rise. There will be half a zucchini on the market and you can sell them for $ 4 a kilo. You can't do this if you go to the casino. Therefore it is not at all true that in the market every instant is independent of the other. They are always related by the law of supply and demand. Always!
Lol your over thinking about trading
Run an autocorrelation function plot of the changes in asset prices, see the lags there, some maybe be breaking the 95% CI, but even then the autocorrelation of the lags should still be
@flavorisyou895 no he just taught you how to make money and you ignored it.
The martingale system, after 20 "flips" would be a 1 in 1,000,000 chance of occurring...but that is better odds than most lotteries. So 20 losses in a row can happen and does happen. At $10 initial investment you will end up doubling 20 times and will end up spending $10,485,760 to earn back your $10.
The casino games are random, following a trend wouldn't make the martingale work...but the thing is if you use it on trading it might work because majority of traders are following the trend and because of those majorities, the probability of losing streak decrease, and the probability of extending the trend duration is higher ...so it's not that it wouldn't work...but it's not the best strategy for emotional traders or low pocket individual the doesn't have another strategy except for the martingale
this is surprisingly good. i fell on the video following a Coffeezilla rant (always funny). i was expecting scammy crap. but congrats Coding Jesus you talk like a scientist and i agreed with all of your comments. i am gonna listen to your "stop loss = scam" video now. i agree already, haha. because stop loss is just a target for someone to go take you out... let's hear what you say. i might subscribe. thx for making this content.
Another great video, TY!
It called the Gambler's Fallacy, Coding Jesus!
This dude way to happy to be taking a 72k loss
Fortunately, there are some real idiots out there. In a zero-sum game, we need the 90-95% losers to fund the winners (and the brokers).
Yes events are independent but central limit theorem dictates that over a long period things average out. However because exchanges are crooks, funds are not unlimited and stocks can go bust that rediculuos theory also know as double or quits doesn't apply.
In one of my first probability courses, we had to prove that for any finite amount of money, the probability of losing everything using the Martingale system is 100%
when he said martingale i knew he is a guru literally no one uses martingale only if you like to do a gamble because martinge is win big lose big at short time, no martingale system will ever work in long term
The Brownian motion is optimus in every price chart . In fact is a stochastic presses with drift
excellent video
Any retail trader that has the slightest bit of savvy would never use the martingale…this dude must have a high risk tolerance.
Price is not random, the market is not stochastic, price can be stochastic but it's just a state among others
Just a simple note , Regarding the number of deals, you can make the strategy in more than one account, 10 accounts, for example, that allow opening 10 times the number of Trades, and the problem of unlimited funds remains only.
And you can get rid of this problem like that by studying the longest direct decline or rise without changing the path for a particular pair, you may find a pair for which the strategy can be applied
But you will only earn 0.000001%
I was always on the fence about progressive coin flips. Thank you!
nice video coding jesus
It seems like this strategy could work on a long time frame with the s&p 500 or qqq if you predict a large pullback. For example if you have 50,000cash. If the market drops 5% you buy $1000, if the market drops another 5% you buy in $2000. if the market drop another 5% you buy $4000. at some point the market will reverse before you run out of money and your cost basis will be pretty close to the bottom. So best case scenario is when you reach your maximum allowed funds the market would have dropped 50-55% which is about as much as the market is going to drop anyway in worse case scenario. So in most scenarios you would have not ran out of money before the market reversal.
Maybe that tail tail of him losing $72,000. Was because of his embarrassment of his teeth !
I'm neither a trader nor a programmer and only got here by accident. To me, the only reasonable approach to gambling is to invest only a fraction of your wins, once you made a win on the limit you put on yourself betting. You reach that limit not having won? Walk. I've never even gambled though, but that would be my approach.
ON markets are random.
what about adverse effect? and larger blocks of orders broken down into smaller blocks being injected into the markets? don't such inventories offer distinct price behavior??
I'm an aspiring software engineer and this video is giving me more reason to not get into trading. Thank you Coding Jesus.
Why ??
I am a trader and make good money better than salary of software engineer but it’s all about discipline that matters in trading and lot of hard work
Alternative title: long haired man explains basic maths to random people on UA-cam who just wanted to laugh at some dude
you got to be a pretty humble guy to call yourself Jesus 😂
I'm lucifer
Wait, did he not stop to google what the martingale system is?
That is what average down and average up is.
So glad he pointed out the spelling on channel lol!
Hi Trading Jesus. Why do you claim that price movement is completely random?
Price movement indeed can be random, yet it also can have inefficiencies. It depends on the market and timeframe. Some timeframes tend to be more in trend, daily and weekly. There are markets that have obvious inefficiencies. For example, the US penny stock market. It consistently has ''pump and dump'' stocks, which you can short as they start to fall after the huge rise and hype.
I was going to say Martingale before I saw the video. Also another thing to note, if it needs to assume that you have an infinite amount of money, that in itself nullifies the idea of using Any strategy including Martingale, because you cannot add to an infinite balance
Thank you. Some sound advice.
I love this channel.
there is a little bit of randomness regarding price, but if you can think outside of what you've been taught in your academic lessons, which is respectable nevertheless, you might be able to spot major resistance and support levels on most assets which is part of technical analysis which you call it chart astrology, but is more real than you think. this is where retail traders can make their $.
Sorry, but I don't agree that day trading is gambling like you said, opinion from a software engineer. Gambling definition is when you're taking an action based on no criteria/variables but just on probabilities.
If you think of a round in the martingale as losing until you win and plan to play until you win $X you will be betting X/win_amount rounds. If you calculate the odds of a streak of losses losing you an amount equal to $X in X/win_amount rounds the odds are the same as the odds of winning a single flip. I mean if you think about it every time you double the target amount you want to win you are doubling the amount of rounds and so doubling the odds of rolling a bigger losing streak. You may as well bet the entire target amount on the first bet because your odds of a win are the same all the way up to whatever bankroll you have or house limit there is you should not play unless you are ok betting the your full bank roll or house limit in the first game.
You believe that the markets are efficient models with random motions, so it becomes impossible for the retails to outperform them by applying any strategies at all. I don't think that's entirely true, because the participants make biased, often poorly-informed decisions towards buying or selling the assets. This creates a two-way process. The participants influence the price, and in turn, the prevailing price trends influence their further decisions.
SIR, Trading forex supply & demand if 4 hour trend is up,& 1 hour trend is up as well--then on 15 minute time frame chart one has to wait until price comes down to support level(derived from 1H chart) & using smaller 15 minutes chart watch that this level holds & then buy. Next step would be how this long position attacks higher supply level ON THE SAME 1H chart & only sell if forex pair turns down at this higher supply level--otherwise just hold the position on to next higher supply level ON SAME 1HOUR CHART--any modifications you suggest
Hi, I'm a day trader and I'd be happy to prove you day trading price is not random and can be actually traded with straight rules that go against the 95%. Keep up the good work. cheers.
These day trading gurus are all full of nonsense but if you attack or critize them, they'll never show cold bullet proof evidence that they are profitable, they'll just block you or call you a hater/troll.
Yes. They will not show IRS Audited Tax Returns. Anyone who has a reading comprehension level of a fourth grader and who has read any academic paper on financial markets knows that it is impossible to generate alpha in the long run using technical analysis. Furthermore I do not care if they are profitable, which is possible in a bubble of time (just like I can have a profitable day in the casino). I care if they generate alpha consistently .
@@CodingJesus yup keep exposing these clowns! try madaz money, my investing club, timothy sykes, or warrior trading. those clowns run the penny stock game... as well as dux who u already showed was a joke
Martingale algorithm are everywhere...😅😅...
Curious as to why you say price is random? I though it was based on supply and demand (people buying or selling what ever asset)
I think he only means in the short term, you can't predict short term volatility so it is in practice random
being a fake guru is less risky than being a real guru
Markets are not memoryless processes; they tend to not follow a Brownian motion. But yes, this day-trading bot business is a recipe for ruin (the gambler variety).
Why dont you trade live somedays so we know what your whole quant strat is all about
I don't want to debate gravity with anyone, but wouldn't you agree that the variance on a price time series is partly explained by randomness and partly explained by "stuff that happens out there in the real world" (notwithstanding EFH)?
nice vid, amazing channel, following. cheers from italy
Jesus! Jesus! Since the first time I watched one of your videos, now I keep getting more and more of them popping up on my dashboard. The problem I have with your trading gospel, is there are no practicals, it’s all theory. It's like "faith" without "works"!!
2:48 *shows million dollar homes, and brags about success*
3:05 also: "you spelt *channel* wrong" lol
How can an exchange limit me buying 2shares then 4 then 8 etc? Great channel by the way
Position limits are very real but picture the poor guy who'd start this doubling down bot a few days before the settlement of a physically delivered contract such as oil or lean hogs. he lala xD
Hello Coding Jesus, what do you think about Financial Engineering Masters course offered by world quant University as a path to break into the quant Space?
how is the price is purely a brownian motion like phenomena, and an independent event if it most of the times it fall into support and resistance levels? i mean it can go either up and down i get it, but does it not hold a resemblance of memory ? maybe inherit by the memory of the traders using metrics to determine where to place bets
Silly if you're down even a few thousand why wouldn't you get out?
"moneys a scarce resource" lmaoooooo this dude doesnt trade huh lol
thank yo coding jesus... [
3:50 , 4:08
Actualy there is a silver bullet 😂
I totally forgot what I was going to say. That's right, the martingale derivations. I have one, I have it in my copy of World Scientific of Futures Markets.. first chapter, is a description of the market as a martingale. I was a chemist, what is Brownian motion, what is it specifically. Brownian motion is the description of the motion of a particle, in solution or similar with other particles.. how do you describe the location of that particle over time, and the motion is caused by collisions.. however you're not describing the collisions, just the overall motion.. mostly a description of diffusion. So I definitely have this write up, as a proof. So there is no proof, that the market obeys Brownian motion.. because it doesn't. However, there are proofs based on a theoretical market that has price changes by Brownian motion. That's not quite a real market though, because prices are moving in the direction of certain prices favorably... there are proofs based on Brownian motion, but it is not proven that the market is actually described that way. I'm looking at some of the books, there are models that sound more correct.
This dude is so self absorbed
Arrogant Fantasy World ... Wake up Coding Demon !
there is way to much interruption
This is a stupid strategy. "If the proprietary traders don't use it you shouldn't use it either."
That’s not the tell. The tell is he said “tooken” which isn’t even a word. So, then ask yourself…you wanna listen to this guy lol?!
The fuckin ross cameron if you see his damn video you will find he’s the biggest pumper in the stock market
I do not believe that dude. It looks like he is trying to sell a service by poo-poo-ing another system.
if you say money is a scarce resource then you have a limiting belief about money sir.....
Yo Jesus i want to comment on your remark RE 8 tail flips, next one is more likely to be heads. Your reasoning, each flip is independant event. I think thats somewhat incorrect of terms of reasoning. The true reason why there is no "higher" chance for flip #9 to be heads is that for such a chance to exist, you would have to clearly define a maximum amount coin of tosses. As it is, the amount of coin tosses basically goes to infinity, in which case by mathematics its impossible to assign a chance as the series is unlimited. I hope this makes sense.
If you would however rule that you would do 9 flips, and the the first 8 come out flips, then i believe going by stastics indeed you would be overdue a heads flip and it would be correct to bet on it (in fact you should raise your beginning with flip 5).
It is not incorrect to state that every coin flip is an independant event. The main argument is some laymen actually believe losing consecutively will increase the chance of you winning on the next flip, as if every flip has a probability effect on the next flips. Also, you’re not overdue a win on the ninth flip if you lost the first eight flips lol.
bro it doesnt matter how many times you flip a coin, there are only 2 sides the probablity will be 50/50 regardless.
Those statistics apply to the probability of your coin flips being 8 heads consecutively not to your next one.
Its like betting that a 50-50 scenario coinflip going to one side 8 times consecutively is a good bet to make, even 2 consecutively would be a good probablity bet, but interms of the next one coin flip that will be 50-50 even if its flipped 10 times to heads consecutively
"You spelt channel wrong" hahaha
Even if tou have infinite amauubt of mone you have equal chance to win infinite amaunt ald lose everything
Gravity is STILL a THEORY BRO no mater how you look at it they can't prove it exists. It's been a theory forever. LMAOOO
no, you are wrong. you can make money as a day trader just u have to be able to control yourself, like you would be a fricking machine, than u can make money it is not even so difficult. TA works more than not. probability game, nothing more.
paper trading comes in hand.
Freaking Handsome Guy!
You anti traders need to understand that some of us a smart enough to figure it out. Been trading for 14 years
Seriously lol, these people here can’t accept that some people are actually dedicated and figure it out .
@@Bl00dm0ney136 share your P&L?
Very few. I applaud you if you are truly profitable. Most people get upset with day traders when they start selling courses, and promising huge and most importantly quick returns. This leads unsuspecting people down a dangerous path. There’s no reason for profitable traders/ business people in general to selling their secrets to the public. Those are the types I myself and many anti-day traders are against.
However, those who aren’t targeting innocent people & are privately profitable, wether that be professionally or for themselves I have no problem with.
Again, Jesus is wrong. That’s fine, cause you are not a quant, just a developer. For those who wants to know, here’s why martingale strategy doesn’t work, the assumption of martingale strategy is the asset return is a sub-martingale. Which in most cases not, in real market
Daytraders are NOT risk seeking. Daytraders are Risk Managers. You are talking about gamblers.
I don't know how to code so don't talk about it. Maybe you can learn something from me.
This guy (the trading guru) is well known as a faker he has been exposed many times.