Why the Middle East won’t quit oil | Business Beyond
Вставка
- Опубліковано 4 тра 2024
- No other region in the world has been as profoundly shaped by oil as the Middle East. Within just a few decades, Gulf countries grew incredibly rich and acquired enormous power on the world stage.
For the citizens of these petrostates, quality of life improved dramatically. For their rulers, a kind of social contract emerged: autocratic regimes were accepted in exchange for economic well-being. But the security blanket provided by oil had other effects too: private enterprise and education took a backseat as oil provided for the people.
The rapid development enabled by oil was also powered by an influx of expats lured by the promise of paying little or no tax. But times are changing. Climate change and fluctuating oil prices have forced Gulf leaders to rethink their economies and diversify them away from oil. Huge changes are underway, with renewable projects like "Neom" developing at a rapid pace.
But as the recent COP climate change conference in Dubai made clear, the age of oil is far from over.
In this video, we explore three questions: whether investing in renewables translates into quitting fossil fuels, what the lessening importance of oil could mean for geopolitical relations and how life could change for Gulf citizens as a result. Video features expert analysis from historian and author Ellen Wald, energy analyst Carole Nakhle and energy researcher Roman Valkulchuk.
Chapters:
00:00 INTRO
01:00 HOW OIL HAS SHAPED THE REGION
02:58 WHY DIVERSIFY?
03:50 THE BIG TRANSITION
5:30 NEW OIL MARKETS
09:08 OIL AND POWER
14:42 A NEW SOCIAL CONTRACT?
16:06 CONCLUSION
Subscribe: ua-cam.com/users/deutsche...
For more news go to: www.dw.com/en/
Follow DW on social media:
►Facebook: / deutschewellenews
►Twitter: / dwnews
►Instagram: / dwnews
►Twitch: / dwnews_hangout
Für Videos in deutscher Sprache besuchen Sie: / dwdeutsch
#middleeast #oil #energytransition
No company anywhere is going to voluntarily stop selling their oil, but if demand for oil drops due to other technologies, like hydrogen powered vehicles, then their sales will drop. There will always be some demand for oil for uses that don't include burning it, like pharmaceuticals, cleansers, lubrication, etc.
Lots of other demand. Paint, plastics, asphalt for roads, synthetic rubber for tires, a long list of other uses.
It used to be good business to pick up natural ice and store it and transport it thousands of miles. The business finally went away after world war 1. That same thing will happen to oil.
Off course oil will go no where but demand will drop significantly if the “green” transition happens, just remember what happened during the pandemic.
@@weird-guy There's no transition, only addition.
@@weird-guy The "green" transition needs a major technology breakthrough. Trying to go exclusively with scaled-up wind and solar would probably have worse environmental impacts than just sticking with fossil fuels. Not to mention cratering the economy.
America is the biggest oil producer in the world now, ask them if they are going to quit oil.
no they only ask the middle eastern because how dare people of color are becoming rich?
@mike1831
We Columbians aren't going to quit oil anytime soon, in my humble opinion. However, we'll get more of our energy from renewable sources for certain. Oil 🛢️ is too precious a resource to be burnt. We need oil to lubricate the world literally. Coal is too polluting to use worldwide so yeah, we are phasing out of coal and phasing in renewable energy sources. In electricity generation (which product I consider to be the most precious form of Gibbs free energy available,) renewable energy has already surpassed coal.
Reducing using coal will have the most impact on greenhouse gas emissions as well as improving human health and well-being in Second World countries.
We Columbians can reduce oil usage gradually by transforming our social institutions. I have commuted decades with burning a lot of oil products just to move from an electricity source at home to sit near an electricity source at work. 😂
Oil is not necessarily only an energy source, but also a staple material used in other industries. Should the world successfully pivot from fossil fuel to cleaner energy sources, oil is still likely to remain as materials to other industries, if not cheaper, as there would be less demand from the energy side.
Oil is a god's gift.
Oil pushed the development of humanity
Oil can't be replaced by new modern energy technologies. Impossible.
These technologies will be never as affordable as oil and natural fossil fuel 😊.
I
Only Europe dream of overnight transition. Europe itself still uses Russian gas today despite "sanction." Worst, Norway is applauded for doing what Saudi is doing, so why the double standards or rascism
once america drills oil again middle east oil is worthless $30 barrels
Norway is the founder of NATO and a member of the EU. Saudi Arabia is an ally of the U.S.A. which has extraterritorial violations of human rights executed abroad. It's neither double standard nor racism.
If Saudi Arabia behaves in the same way as Norway does, we Columbians will look up to Saudi Arabia in the same way we do Norway !
I admit that Saudi Arabia was correct in its regional assessment insofar as Iraq and Yemen are concerned but we Columbians chose some rather drunken or dopey leaders for sure ! 😢
Good video overall but a major thing that was ignored is that oil has so many uses beyond just energy. Renewables are primarily electricity, not the many other uses of fossil fuels, including industrial steam. The latest generation of nuclear reactors show promise on this front.
But energy is its main use... like at least 80% of it.
@@xihua12370 not merely electrical energy. Electricity and energy should not be used interchangeably.
It is silly to think that the oil companies have to go green. Others have to provide alternative, consistently reliable and affordable energy sources, which means the energy companies lose their business. There must therefore be alternatives to the many materials that can be made from oil. Until then, at least another 30 years, the oil, coal and gas companies keep the world running. They make it possible for you to protest where you want.
Hasil AKHIR berikut dengan
Efek dan lain'.
Very good and eye opening!
Oil is their bread and butter.
They don't have anything other than that lol
CAMELS AND DATES. YUM
LOL you're wrong but still thank god for oil
Teacher: There's no dumb question
DW: wHy miDdle East won't quit OIL
This is a really good reporting
very informative
Great presentation!
I noticed an error that need to be addressed. 12 minutes into the show, the lady was talking about why Biden ask the Saudis Not to drop production by 1 million barrels. The lady said it does not make sense since US is the world top producer. Of course, it makes sense. When the supplies reduced worldwide. The price of oil is interconnected. 😊
Unfortunately, I also noticed a decrease in the quality of content, I think due to the economic crisis in Germany.. this TV channel does not have enough money to hire experienced journalists
That's true, the oil economy is connected internationally.
I also noticed something off about that part. I didn't nuderstand the way that was explained either. I thought it was just me. I watched it 3x now lol
not only that, but also she is stating that the US Is the biggest oil producer... forgetting that the US Is also the biggest oil CONSUMER 😂
so when she says that, she is overlooking the impact and leverage Gulf countries have on oil markets
Biden is still of the mindset from decades ago when the U.S.A. was highly dependent upon *CHEAP* oil 🛢️ but the truth is that over the decades we've already made our economy much more *RESILIENT* to an oil price -increase shock.
This row with Saudi Arabia and the diplomatic debacles with Saudi Arabia and Venezuela were entirely unnecessary.
That's what we all get with our great-grandfatherly paternal paternal paternal leaders who like to grabble at thingy. 😤
We love DW from much from Africa, thank you DW
You European will never leave Middle East alone
They have military there and unfortunately have business investments in the middle east
Am I the only person on the planet that knows that we do a lot more with oil than burn it for energy? We're still going to need oil long after a successful transition to green energy.
No, you are not. But electricity production is a major part of carbon emission. And greening the electricity production opens up new opportunity to remove oil from other processes like industrial heating.
Especially all the plastic on these green alternatives
By 2060 20% of oil production is forecasted to be used for plastic polymer production.
"A lot more" is an overstatement, as one can see by the distribution of oil demand per sector. Statista data for 2022:
Road transportation: 49.24%
Petrochemicals: 12.12%
Other industry: 10,89%
Residential/commercial/agricultural: 8.5%
Aviation: 7.41%
Marine bunkers: 3,27%
Electricity generation: 3.05%
Rail & domestic waterways: 1,53%
Roughly 3/4 is used to burn for energy, mostly for combustion. Of which some are not easily replaced in the medium near future.
Further clarification:
Petrochemicals: This sector includes the manufacturing of plastics, resins, and other petroleum-based products.
Residential/Commercial/Agricultural: This sector includes oil demand from households, businesses, and agriculture (machines).
Other Industry: This category typically includes all industrial sectors that are not explicitly mentioned. It can include a wide range of industries such as manufacturing, construction, mining, and more. The specific industries included can vary depending on the source of the data.
Marine Bunkers: This term refers to the quantities of fuel oil delivered to ships of all flags that are engaged in international navigation. It is the fuel used to power these ships. Bunkering is the supplying of fuel for use by ships.
Lastly, peak oil has been predicted too early many times, so we might still see large absolute demand for these sources. On the other hand, Wright's Law - which states that for every cumulative doubling of units produced, costs will fall by a constant percentage - applies to many of the alternatives to fossil fuels. Which may drive demand growth exponentially once certain cost levels are broken.
Sorry to burst your bubble but alot of new bio-refining techniques are further going to get rid of many of the processess you say oil also goes into.
I was expecting the commentary at the 6:15 mark about "demand coming from elsewhere" after the US, China, Europe, and others electrify their transportation sectors. Maybe India will have the money to pay for large scale oil imports but it is unlikely that Cameroon and such countries will suddenly become rich enough to buy lots of oil and buy cars.
China is electrifying its transportation sector with coal, they are doubling down on new coal plants, and forming the future of China's energy towards coal.
As a Kenyan I can say this * supply will always meet demand* Its not those who supply but who demand should be made pay for the damage . EUROPE AND CHINA should do more if they wants have moral on this
That's the thing. Europe is always expected to act as the responsible person of the planet. If for example Africa can't get to their goals on their own, Europe is expected to help them. Meanwhile China doesn't do anything that doesn't immediately benefit them. Africa would be in a position to do something, but the corrupt governments are stealing all the little wealth that's generated and preventing any further development. Then there are the religious militia groups waging war on whomever they see fit.
On top of that, the climate change is affecting Africa and other least developed regions the heaviest, so you can draw your conclusions from there.
Europe and China?
thank you
Excellent and very well researched report!
Are u this blind or maybe young so werent around that time? Report is so biased, quoting pre 2008 events as if those were true from the getko. Please just google those events you will get the true info...
Great Video
That was a great piece, thank you!
Well logical that oil countries are the last to wanting to transition. By then its too late for them. The reason why they don't want to transition is because 93% of their economies are based on oil. So every year that Europe + China + other regions are transitioning 1-4% to green energy, is a year where oil and gas will become a smaller market.
And in 2050 Europe is completely energy transitioned, and China by 2060. So sooner or later 93% of oil Arab states income will be wiped out. It will be disastrous.
I bet you trust the $cientist™️
You fail to understand how reliable oil is compared to any other technology.
1000 kg of electric batteries have the same power 5kg 3.5 liters of gasoline
Nice input Einstein, now pls take your meds before you hurt yourself
@@TheAmericanMonaLisa
Batteries make huge improvements in many ways, not just from existing elements but from new elements that are far less rare to use.
Also the weight to energy storage ratio is almost getting to the point that we can store the required energy in relative less weight to use for electric planes to fly.
And that is one of the harder problems to fix. Europe's average energy transition is 25% today with Sweden leading a 60%.
Point is. Green energy will replace fossil fuels for atleast the extreme majority.
And fusion will do the rest. Japan, EU and China is very far in this.
Even by the European’s own estimates there’s no way they will be completely transitioned from fossil fuels by 2050. And that’s not really even the goal. The goal is net zero which is also not very likely.
Good video.
Y’all said some crazy shot in here.
excellent
Demand will most likely go up long term...
Population that can switch to renewables or low carbon alternatives near term ammounts to less than bilion or two.
Most of the people on the planet will use oil as their primary source of energy, and the rest that currently live in total energy powerty will most likely profit from lower demand in advanced countries...
There are some very naive points in this video. The US doesn't have total oil pricing control in its territory, because oil is not produced by state-owned companies, it is produced by private companies, mega large and mega small, that would incur big opportunity cost losses if prices were fixated by the government. Also, shale oil is much more expensive to extract and has thus much lower margins. Many small produces went bankrupt in the US when Saudi Arabia declared a pricing war on them. Of course Saudi Arabia has pricing control of oil in the US and of course the US has a big incentive in protecting Saudi's oil production militarily. If Saudi's production goes offline, prices would soar and the entire world would enter a big depression. Please do your homework. You are not casual UA-camrs.
The main naive point is that oil producing countries will be shifting to renewables at some point. The only way they can regrain from using oil is to replace it with nuclear power which we can see going on.
Is making and keeping human slaves that are marketed as part of a society that is depressed something thats not happening now?
What if cavemen were far better off than you?
This was not mentioned intentionally, and that tells you about the motives of this report. Political rather than analytical
Hats off to DW for such an amazing documentary
Because major regions in. The world have either Gas( Snow regions) or Oil( Sea short or offshore) depending if Phosphate rock was exploited or not.
Question of environment and other plans stop some countries to look for extraction including economic cost particularly
Stability of earth of some volcano and earthquake is to explore fossil energy.
Question of economic comparative advantages ( some for green. Others for fossils..
Do Norway and Australia. Both want to be green, but sell fosil fuels.
do not forget USA and Canada etc
Germans constantly avoid talking about Nuclear Energy and their mistake to close their NPPs. Oil producing countries couldn´t be happier about this German decision.
Thanks for another interesting episode
Insightful comments not easily found elsewhere
Oil companies are making record profits, countries that are supposedly leading the way in the green transition: the USA is the largest oil producer, Europe is expanding infrastructure for hydrocarbons. Who's crazy here? 🤔
Never trust a nation to keep their promise when the stated goal is decades away. The energy transition will happen eventually, but not on the timescale that politicians have laid out. Europe wants to go green by 2050? More like 2070 or 2080. Emerging markets in Africa and Asia will keep the oil fields alive, but maybe for another two or three decades before we start to see peak oil demand. Everything the EU promises will happen, just multiply the timetable and costs by 2x.
Battery energy density is increasing by around 7% per year.
Is there demand to continue human slavery?
Authoritarian countries stick to their stated national goals more often than democratic ones where plans change with elections. That's why the dates set for their transition is farther away as their more realistic outcomes then Western countries.
@@bunk95doesn't mean slavery and human trafficking still doesn't exist.
Biggest hurdle in Renewable Energy is none other than America. Keep in mind america is mostly control by oil and arms companies. USA is the biggest oil producer in the world, oil transaction are done in dollar so oil also guarantee dollar dominance so america is not going to abandon oil so easily
😅 I heard the Green Lie and thought DW will tell the truth
Germany will NEVER stop using oil ... but no you want to talk about Saudi Arabia 😂
It's probably clear that every nation of the world will act in its own self-interest, both producers and consumers.
And the individual decisions of each country will largely be based on that nation's level of development, access to financial and technological resources and domestic skill level.
For example although the decision what type of power plant to build for an advanced and developed nation is fairly clear because the decision would be driven primarily by economics because every other factor is not scarce or lacking, for a developing nation the lack of various requirements can mean that its decisions will instead be based on what is possible and this often means burning fossil fuels because the requirements of minimal initial cost, lack of complexity and availability of materials are all met.
Because the global energy needs of the next 50 years or so will be provided by diverse solutions, no energy source including oil is likely going to die and be replaced by a "better" solution and this means that although demand will eventually drop for fossil fuels, it probably won't happen in our lifetime as long as new markets keep opening up.
Tony,
there is no indication of any energy source to replace fossil fuels, so the talk of transitioning away from them is simply empty words.
Oil should not be a concern in this lifetime., although we should be using it to create independence and wealth, not dependence and war
Why did you film that at Strausberger Platz? Isnt DW Berlin in Wedding?
the line is really a secret pipeline to move oil away from the other side without ships
Good report but this program fails to realize some main points :
1. Africa produces more oil than it needs. The problem they face is refining and distribution which they're currently solving. In the next 30 years, they'll have the capacity to implement their oil self-sufficiency in necessary industries while others would have transitioned to renewables.
2. There is on-going enormous pressure on countries by Western UN to achieve their 17 SDGs with at least 3 goals focused on moving away from fossil fuel. ESG scores are a real thing and they're globalized already, with governments around the world being forced to implement their own carbon credit score versions. There is no escape from this.
In 70 years the gulf will be selling more sand than oil
No discussion of the unreliability of wind and solar.
@@sevenidols607Good point. not to mention that they're produced using fossil fuels. The making of batteries, solar panels and the recycling of both + related components are done by high polluting industries powered by fossil fuels
I think you underestimate how much people will not tolerate being poor. Phasing out fossil fuels only creates lots of bolsanaros/trumps.
I'm watching the Iowa caucus. This all could have been avoided by not pursuing degrowth with such fervor.
Carbon capture technologies are making great strides to the point where we don’t really need to curb fossil fuel usage
Carbon capture is a pseudoenviromental scam that capitalizes on low level of physics and chemistry knowledge.
12:05 looks an awful lot like the gas turbine plant in Ribatejo, Portugal. Are you sure it's a nuclear power plant? Hint: nuclear power plants don't have huge smokestacks for exhaust gases.
I only have one question to all this. What if no one else but the west has oil, would there be a call to going green?
@16:52 - Sultan Al Jaber - An agreement is only as good as its implementation. We are what we do not what we say. WE must take the steps necessary to turn this agreement into tangible ones." We can only hope that tangible action begins with admitting that the age of oil is coming to an end!
The title is so dumb
That's like asking why won't VW quit selling cars
Question ZERO, how do you manufacture a solar panel, battery or wind turbine WITHOUT OIL?
At least they did more than the europeans. Who are now back to using coal. Talk talk talk.
BUSINESS AS USUAL.
2 minutes in, and the little history lesson is complete nonsense.
Saudi Arabia spends more of its money on education than any European country has ever done.
No mention of course about religious fanaticism, instead u get a nonsense line about a "social contract"
where
Ellen Wald is in the business of pushing oil, increasing carbon emissions which affect all of us. There’s only one atmosphere folks, and renewables and small nuclear plants would be a better solution for India, China, and the multitude of countries and cultures that comprise Africa.
Why DW is not focussing on Shale gas and oil. Along with capturing of European has supply after subotaging Nord Stream.
Why doesn't America stop war buisness
I believe they are restructuring towards ski resorts tourism as we speak.
Fact: Germany still uses coal to generate electricity. Germany will not stop doing this in the near future.
I think at the same time, DW has discounted the oncoming AI revolution that will change the world in a decade. IF the MUSK dude figures out AGI for driving, then all things will change and thats scary
They conveniently forget at time point 13:00 that transmitting electricity down high voltage cables is an extremely efficient method of moving energy even when considering building the grid. Much more so than building all the infrastructure, refineries and tanker ships to move it as oil! They only talk about "storing energy" and forget that the tides are predictable and reliable (as long as there is a moon in orbit and liquid water...). As is the sun in the middle east! If the sun is up for twelve hours in the day then you only have to store enough for the night. It is not rocket science! Wind and solar PV is the cheapest form of generating electricity.
Surely people don't believe that we can quit oil anytime in the next 50yrs.
Hey would the Middle East quit fossil fuel ?! Their whole economy revolves around it.
there is no climate crisis. Only a self driving belief in a climate crisis There may be concerns. But there's no crisis.
The industrialzed world won't give up oil either becuase we are totally dependant on it for how we live and function!
Your land my rules 😎
On the other hand, many governments are subsidising those highly profitable fossil fuel industries.
I’m not leaving my gas car it works very well
DJ's against drugs
Is like
Bees against honey.
This is the same.
We should have a global agreement oil should be used in supporting industries that develop green future. In 50years we will have the infrastructure in place then to make world 70% green..
I watch it from Russia, each time they say 'democracy' I laugh a bit, they still didn't get what their political situation is after North Stream? That's so funny. 😅
5:53 why is it always that when people talk about consumption of fossil fuels developing economies are talked about . It is always the point that they will increase consumption which will lead to sustenance of the oil trade . the reality is that developed nations out consume even china (which uses large amounts of petroleum for production of goods and not personal consumption) by at least ten folds on a per capita basis . They have also kept on increasing their demand but africa is somehow in the conversation about places causing oil consumption to be very high
We might be in peak oil right now with more and more EVs, China's economy having huge problems and Russia having to cut production.
Oil will always be there atleast for the next 50 years.
50 years isnt really a long time.
1000 years, it’s impossible to make “green energy” without oil for lubricants, silicon, plastics, adhesive etc etc
500
@@PepeCoinMania 501
@@a9503128
Doing without oil is impossible but doing without petroleum is. We in Columbia have soybean oil, corn plastics, biogas, biodiesel, animal fats, etc. which can all displace petroleum at various price levels. There's absolutely no way that it's 1000 years for petroleum at even gradually reducing rate of consumption of petroleum.
Unless there is a huge breakthrough in efficiency in renewable and storage solution, there will always be OIL.
BS!
When the transition is made on renewebles its game over whit protection
All advanced country pay income tax.... it is simple the facts that say declare our best assets is our people.😊
Because it makes them hundreds of billions and allows them to live the delusional monarch lifestyle.
This is where they get their bread they will never stop exploring oil until it's getting dry.
Carole Nakhle is beautiful and smart!
i was not sure if the dw had negative intention towards Gulf nations until 10:37 when she called them a cartel.
I don't think they were ever going to stop extracting oil 😶 (referring to Saudia Arabia)
Then stop buying it lol
If it is really economically viable to move away from oil, the world would move away. Govts, have to look a the whole life cycle of the alternatives than the subsidizing of upfront costs and letting people feel the consequences. EVs are subsidized up front, but the insurance costs and the repair costs are much higher and no Govt. looked at them. One would look at all these things when buying an EV or a heat pump. That the reason for Hertz moving away from EVs. Unfortunately politicians re not educated enough in EU to make informed decisions.
That is fiction that can be used to market things outside of the fiction its from.
@@bunk95 You make no sense and seems to have no clue of the problem and solution.
@@xinghoney8314 I dont know about humans acting like fiction is non-fiction and/or being tortured into appearing/sounding like they are?
Despite how hard we try to because "carbon neutral" and reduce our dependence on oil, the power of the pump is and remain "King" ! The rest of the world needs access to cheap energy and we will not reduce our dependence overnight. New oil producers in South America, Africa and other oil producing nations need cash and oil/gas provides that. As long as there is need there will always be a demand. Get use to it world!
I wonder how much water they are pulling out of their wells in Saudi Arabia.
Maybe they're cutting for a reason they'll never admit to, that they can't hold their production anymore.
Yeah that would be like the cartel giving up drug dealing. Not gonna happen
Insane
Foreign lies about who owns the oil.
What If Germany was a major oil producer?
Why would they give up yheir income
Being able to produce hydrogen in high quantities while minimising damage to the environment would be a great investment in the long run while supporting infrastructure development.
why don't they invest in technology that will capture/fossil carbon from fossil fuels?
without watching a second of the video, money!
Just like cigarettes,oil is slowly but steadily declining, let's get rid of fossil fuels
Great documentary, like somebody once said, the reason 2050 was chosen as the year of carbon neutrality was so that business and governments would have enough time to develop a new narrative before then. Like with the EU committing to only clean energy vehicles by 2035 and hence creating the push for EV development, not for clean vehicles and the betterment of society but rather for the all important Euro…
Exactly a point I raised. What if the west has oil and no one else does, would there be this call for green energy?
Pretty much everything is made from oil. It's gonna be a hard thing to quit
It's clearly they are in the process of converting their wealth from oil oriented to renewable. Of course theyll maximize oil profits first before changing to renewable. completely normal strategy
Of course, Saudi Arabia is "opening up to tourism".
I bet their burqa beaches will be a big hit. No one will ever want to go to "beaches where you can wear what you want" again.
Same for their mint tea festival that will completely destroy Oktoberfest.
But.. But. UAE were said to be the champions of Climate action 🤔
everything would be great, but in Germany food production is now stopping, and food from other countries will be much more expensive due to the money spent on logistics, and you’re talking about hydrogen..
Fossil fuels are not cheap.
Saudi influences the oil market entirely on its own because of its mass reserves and low cost of production. Sure the US has the highest production in the world but it only achieves this through Fracking which is vastly more expensive and the wells exponentially decline in production. So of course this still has a major influence on the US and always will. The fact that DW has a historian (Ellen Ward) giving your viewers incorrect information just shows the incompetence of this channel.