Never mind the antemask brigade doug, I've chosen to never wear one, that's my choice, people want to wear one that's their choice, don't judge me on mine I won't judge you on yours then
The one time it happened to me, I had kings, the real short stack had Aces, and the big stack had Queens. So would of still doubled up basically but a Q was first card up. Craziest hand ever saw was with Queens, raise UTG, saw a raise, followed by 4 all ins, and I folded. Aces, 2 people with Kings, another with Queens, and Jacks. Aces held. This was live also.
Had one where a dude not raising all night went all in with aces. I had kings. A guy with queens and a short stack goes all in. I fold the kings preflop and the dude surely enough ended up having aces. Great fold on my part. BUT THE TURN WAS A GOD DAMN KING AND I WOULDVE HELD.
Yeah, the backraise here was terrible. Assuming neither player had a read on her, which I'm guessing at least one of them probably did, the back raise in this spot is so strong it just screams AA. Much the same way in low level games, if you ever see an amateur or a fish flat from UTG or another very early position, and then back raise, it's AA like 90-95% of the time.
Exactly. You are so far ahead, and you know from their prior bets they have pocket face cards, why scare them off preflop? Maybe she was feeling some bad ju-ju on the flop?
I'm guessing that, at Bilzerian's home game, his opponents are his dad's business partners who keep saying, "Wow, you bluffed me again. That's enough for me. Tell your dad I said hi."
Last year's WSOP was won because the worst hand in KK vs QQ vs JJ spiked a set and took got a HUGE chip stack after that. Not saying he didn't play well (he certainly did), but that one hand is what got him to the final table and setting himself up to win.
@@pilocrap statistically speaking, JJ has a slightly higher chance of hitting a set than any other pocket pair but some would argue it's not too often.
Great to hear your commentary and I enjoy your sense of humor! I'll come over from Houston sometime and play at your place. I believe that as long as the economy is doing ok, the fields in the main event will grow every year.
you missed out on one of the sickest hands ever. i think it was hachems son vs michael mizrachi with quads vs full and they checked it down! was one of the day ones i think or day two
It was nearly an illegal play in the WSOP. If it wasn't for J10cc it would have been. If you have the nuts and you are last to act in a hand, you MUST raise. This is to prevent collusion, although I'm not sure how well it does that or even how often that situation would ever arise where two players who are colluding face each other and one has the stone cold nuts on the river, to the point they had to actually make this a rule. Seems very unlikely to happen.
@@nathanparsons3145Aaron was interviewed by pokernews about the hand and said the guy who called didn’t think of a hand that Aaron could have there other than JTcc Or is just a giant nit I’m friends with Aaron and he told me he prob would’ve folded to a shove
its more likely he tought he had a flush and not a straight flush. I've seen it before at the casino. but instead it was a 4 card flush on board and the guy folded his straight flushes because he said the other guy must has the Ace high flush.. then when he folded he realized his 1 card made a straght flush and not just a small flush
chance of you getting aces/kings/queens paired is 221/3. so thats 73.66:1. if you get that- 2 pairs are left, with 5 other players (in six way) that is 221/5/2 for another player have one of the others thats 22,1:1. last pair is 221/4 (four players left) 55,25:1. so chance for having QQ+KK+AA on same table (six way) is 73,66*22,1*55,41:1 = 90201 to 1 - meening that you expirience 3 players having exacly QQ+KK+AA, where you are one of them on the same table, every 90201 hand you play. for expirienced players thats not as uncommon as one might think.
This isn't quite right. The odds of AA vs KK vs QQ in a random deal at a 6 player table, where you are one of these players is 1 in 141,378. The reason for the discrepancy is two-fold: 1. In the second part of your calculation, you overcount combinations by a factor of 2. 2. After the first pair is removed, the odds change a little from 1 in 221 for the subsequent pairs. Here's how you could make your approach perfect: The odds you have one of AA,KK,QQ are 18/(52 choose 2), which is 1 in 73.66 as you said. Now that one of the pairs is removed, two remain, pair A and pair B. Out of the remaining 5 players, select 2. There are (5 choose 2) = 10 ways to do this. Now that we have the remaining 2 players selected, there are two ways to proceed. Both are fine,, but I will write both to illustrate why we don't have an extra factor of 2: i) Select which player has pair A and which has pair B. There are 2 ways to do this. The odds of each player having their pair are 6/(50 choose 2)~1/204.16 and 6/(48 choose 2)=1/188. Thus we come to final odds of 10 * 2 * 1/73.66 * 1/204.16 * 1/188 ~ 1/141,378 ii) Out of the 2 chosen players, pick one, it doesn't matter which. This player can have either pair, and there are 12/(50 choose 2) ~ 1/102.08 ways to do this. The remaining player can only have the remaining pair, and there are 6/(48 choose 2)=1/188 ways to do this. Thus we come to final odds of 10 * 1/73.66 * 1/102.08 * 1/188 ~ 1/141,378
well agree that i did forget the less combinations after i get set a or b or c (101 combinations removed with first set and 99 more with 2nd set). dont agree with the following "pick two" since there are 5 players to get set b or c and there is 4 playes to get remainding set. (all factors have to happen) you simply just cant say 10 * 2 * 1/73.66 * 1/204.16 * 1/188 but have to say 1/73.67 (set a or b or c) * (204,16/2(sets b+c)/5 random players) * 4/188 (set c amongs 4 random players) so with my miss calculation factored in - the odds go down not up. 1:70634,8 lets ask you this : "if someone have AA, what are the chance of you having KK or QQ?" you would say 204,16/2 and if i asked you "if someone have AA and someone have KK, what are the chance of you having QQ?" you would say 188/1 if i said "someone on the table have AA, and there are 5 players left, what are the chance of someone holding KK or QQ" you would say 204,16/2/5 if i said "someone on table is holding AA and someone else KK on the table, and there is 4 players left, what is the chance of one holding QQ" you would say 188/4 but thx for the correction, had it in mind, at first but dident understand its impact, so i ignored it - that was a mistake.
Doug!?? Can we please get the breakdown on the check check four-of-a-kind vs full house hand between mizrachi and Hachem? It was super weird. I still don't understand what happened.
Its simple, quads quy thought the opponent has an ace or nothing. So he checked for an check raise. But the opponent had only a bad FH because any ace beats him. So he did a check back.
Yeah, the backraise here was terrible. Assuming neither player had a read on her, which I'm guessing at least one of them probably did, the back raise in this spot is so strong it just screams AA. Much the same way in low level games, if you ever see an amateur or a fish flat from UTG or another very early position, and then back raise, it's AA like 90-95% of the time.
@@derenkov I'm not so sure about that... That kind of mindset is not how you win tournaments, this is a dream spot. And while it may have been nerve racking if both players had called, I'm sure she would have at the very least wanted QQ to call, as she had 10x what he had left to go all in with. Any player would take that all day, it would be totally insane not to. And if they both call and QQ wins, she's still going to almost double up. The more I think about it, the more I realize how wrong you are. Maybe in a cash game you'd be happier just to take it down and win $40,000 with no risk, but in a tourney, you have to take risks to win. Those blinds will eat you alive if you are conservative.
The correct odds of AA vs KK vs QQ at a 9 player table in a given hand is 1 in 16,830.78 or 0.00594%. Some other comments are incorrect, as you have to be careful here with the combinatorics. Lets calculate it right: Number the players 1 through 9. The odds that exactly player 1 has AA, player 2 has KK, and player 3 has QQ is precisely 6/(52 choose 2)*6/(50 choose 2)*6/(48 choose 2). There are then (9 choose 3) ways to pick 3 players out of 9, and 3! ways to order those 3 players, so there (9 choose 3)*3!=9!/6! different ways to assign AA, KK, QQ, among the individually numbered 9 players. Thus the precise amount is the product of these quantities, 6/(52 choose 2)*6/(50 choose 2)*6/(48 choose 2)*9!/6! = 108/1817725, which is approximately 1/16,830.78. The same approach implies that, in a given hand at a 9 player table, we have the following odds: AA vs KK: 1 in 626.67 AA vs AA: 1 in 3760.06 AA vs KK vs QQ: 1 in 16,830.78 AA vs AA vs KK: 1 in 100,984 AA vs KK vs QQ vs JJ: 1 in 483,885
@1:50(nerd checking in) How common is AA vs KK vs QQ? let's do some math... there are (52!/34!)/(2^9) ways to deal a full 9 ring game ~ 5.3359755e+26 (move the decimal point to the right 26 times. big number!) now lets imagine each of the players' hands (i.e. two hole cards) as its own bin, so in a 9 ring game, we have 9 bins. to simplify things, lets assume that the first three bins are the aa, kk, qq hands (we will rearrange this later to avoid under-counting). there are 6 ways to make each pair, we have 6^3 = 216 ways to make the first three bins the way that we want them, and as for the next 6 bins, there are (46!/34!)/(2^6) ~ 2.9122263e+17 ways to deal out the remaining 6 hands. so we have 6^3*(46!/34!)/(2^6) ~ 6.2904087e+19 ways to deal out a 9-ring game, with seats 1,2,3 having the pairs that we care about now, we restricted the table to have the pairs at seats 1,2,3, but in reality any seat can have them, so we have to multiply by 9! ---> 9!*(6^3*(46!/34!)/(2^6)) ~ 2.2826635e+25 the answer will be the number from the previous paragraph divided by the number in the first paragraph... (9!*(6^3*(46!/34!)/(2^6)))/((52!/34!)/(2^9)) ~ .00000016318797 or 000016318797% or about 1:10,000,000, so we would expect to see this scenario once every ten million hands.
Poker is alive and mostly well, my only problem is that so much of the US is unable to legally get to online poker. If they could, I’d venture we be at 15k+ main event entries already.
Hey Doug, been watching your videos for a long time and really have developed a strong hatred for that out of place outlet in the bottom left corner of your facecam. Your videos wouldn’t be complete unless that outlet was removed from existence. Thank you. Also keep making videos lol, always funny :)
I have a theory with main event numbers and that is we see more entries now because the youngsters who got involved during the initial boom are now peak income and can afford the entries. This is great short term but a decline is likely when you look at the average ages of entries it's going up year on year which nobody seems prepared to speak about.
Dude’s casually folding kings. Meanwhile there has been one recent hand involving Mateos with aces where he faced all in against AKs, easy call, AKs got runner flush. That was legit disgusting.
Here is the calculation for probability of AA vs KK vs QQ at an 8 player table. There are 8 players to pick from to have the aces. Once the aces are picked, there are 7 remaining players to pick from to have KK, and then 6 remaining players to pick from to have QQ. There are 6 combinations each for AA, KK, and QQ. The remaining players can have any two of the remaining cards, (if we are okay with two people having QQ or KK or AA). That gives (46 choose 2), (44 choose 2), (42 choose 2), (40 choose 2)*(38 choose 2) for the remaining hands. Take the product of all the numbers listed to get the number of combinations of AA vs KK vs QQ. Now, we divide this by the total number of combinations of all 8 player hands. That is (52 choose 2)*(50 choose)*(48 choose 2)*(46 choose 2)*(44 choose 2)*(42 choose 2)*(40 choose 2)*(38 choose 2). Most of these terms divide out, and we are left with a probability of (8*7*6)*(6*6*6)/((52 choose 2)*(50 choose 2)*(48 choose 2) = 3.96*10^(-5) = .00396%. For an n player table, this goes up to (n*(n-1)*(n-2))*(6*6*6)/((52 choose 2)*(50 choose 2)*(48 choose 2) So for 9 players, this means it is slightly higher at 0.00594%. This is about 4-6 times more likely than a straight flush for a single player, but slightly less likely than one player at the table having a straight flush.
@@andrewdinns1746 Where is my mistake? I will make the correction. For a calculation like this that probably will not make a difference in any poker game, I am happy using decimals personally. For the ones that matter, I find odds better than fractions or decimals, but that is my preference.
A8 is not leading out into two players on the flop. J8 and T8 is not always a call preflop from the SB, though sometimes the suited combos are in there. JJ is almost always raising preflop. So 88, JJ, J8, T8 are the only hands he can have for value, out of which 88 is most likely.
That guy with the pocket 10’s who busted 1st hand….2 years ago, 1st hand he bets $400, I bump to$1,300. Three spades come out (which I didn’t notice at the time).I bet $1,200 and he raise to $4,500 with A-6-10 all spades. Next card A-6-10-A and I check, he goes $4,500 and I raise to $12k which he calls. The river is a blank. I know he’s got a K high flush but I all-in the rest of it. He takes a few minutes and calls. What did I have? He had the K high flush…..
Top pros might not like the mask/glasses combo, but as a rec player who saves all year to go to the WSOP to fire one bullet in one tournament, I'm wearing both. Gotta get over it.
I've folded KK preflop three times, I was up against AA two of those times. These are rare situations, but I tend to trust my reads, 2 outta 3 ain't bad.
Doug, what about Lodge vs. Lodge... tournaments best 3 vs 3 live stream and 4 vs 4 live poker wearing San Antonio vs. Austin shirts tournaments $500 buy in 50k guaranteed cash 50k buy in 50 / 100 blinds???? Let's freaking go!!!!
I play low stakes live tourneys and ALWAYS fold to the limp-backraise. I have yet to see anything but AA turned over. Maybe that makes me exploitable, I am fine with that. That said, I recently accidentally limped (silently tossed in a single oversized chip) when i tried to minraise 77 UTG but didn't let on about my mistake. Goes call, call, 5 BB raise from the button, cold call from the BB, and I exploitatively shove 36 BB to take it down. Raiser mutters something about wanting to call but he just doesn't know "what that guy is doing" and points to me as he folds.
I have to say that, those bad beats we like to advertise all over the internet are bad for the game image and must be a big deterrent to those curious about NLH...I can already hear them " See I told you it's all about luck"....sigh
I just called "bottom" quads in JJ822 😂 in my defense it was a mistake. I thought he put me all in and I was so excited I just snap called. But yeah, he just had raised 😂 luckily he had T high for the airball bluff vs my 10% pot lead with 0.5 spr
No mention of the guy bouncing in his chair throughout the whole hand when he flopped a set? Everybody saw it, except the guy with Ace in his hand who offloaded a ton of chips to him. For those curious, look up day 3 stream, 41m mark. Commentators were even commenting on his head bobble, lol.
If they make it over 100k entrants, the prize pool will be 1b... I feel like an event that large would not be feasible to have all players playing simultaneously!
GTO geeks would never make those “questionable” plays that Hellmuth did. And they won’t have the bracelets either. I guess you were sitting at the table, with the goods on all the players tendencies
Can you do POKER HANDS analysis of Lococo A-3 VS Lu A-4 ??? and Adrian Mateos AA vs Hernandez AK ??? PLEASE !!!!! If you do this , i promise to sign up for Upswing Poker Lab
Doug, how does it feel to simultaneously be the best looking man in poker while paradoxically bearing the most resemblance to Vanessa Selbst of anyone in the world?
HURRY! Everything at the Upswing Poker Lab is 33% off, but only until July 17th: upswingpoker.com/
🤔
How can you upload this video without mentioning the KK vs AA on the bubble?
Never mind the antemask brigade doug, I've chosen to never wear one, that's my choice, people want to wear one that's their choice, don't judge me on mine I won't judge you on yours then
Aye the next lockdowns will be because the government fake an alien invasion, convid was j7st the test run😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅
Phil’s last 20 years of televised nittiness is finally paying off. What a legend.
1:53 “can some nerd let me know” Doug my brother in christ you are the nerd this is why we are here
lol
AA vs KK vs QQ . Always happens. And I get screwed no matter which hand I have
I have seen that too many times. A new one I have been a part of is AKs vs AKo vs QQ(me) and suited AK makes the nuts. Happen a spam of 1 week. 😅
The one time it happened to me, I had kings, the real short stack had Aces, and the big stack had Queens. So would of still doubled up basically but a Q was first card up.
Craziest hand ever saw was with Queens, raise UTG, saw a raise, followed by 4 all ins, and I folded. Aces, 2 people with Kings, another with Queens, and Jacks. Aces held. This was live also.
dont talk about it. save your energy. be in today my frens
Had one where a dude not raising all night went all in with aces. I had kings. A guy with queens and a short stack goes all in. I fold the kings preflop and the dude surely enough ended up having aces. Great fold on my part. BUT THE TURN WAS A GOD DAMN KING AND I WOULDVE HELD.
because you fail to fold KK and QQ correctly like the guys in the video
"Maybe 8-2 is in the fold range, but 10-2, of course, gotta pay your respects, then everything better is in there, I guess." XDDD
8-2 is actually better than 10-2, if the board runs 3-4-5-6-7 then you'll have a hecking 7-card straight and win the bracelet straight up
The official swaps in By-bit has lagged!!!
I just put up vid to show this
When you swap it gives you almost x 8=
that simpsons plug was hillarious
Timestamp?
Nvm found it
Jerry Yang trying to avoid Homeland Security
And the IRS
Story time?
He's not with the Proud Boys, eh?
Wrong, he is just a brainwashed sheep.
while doing his best impression of the Unabomber... the original one!
Andrew neime and Phan are the only two people that I’ve seen play there AA so bad that they got KK and QQ to fold
Yeah, the backraise here was terrible. Assuming neither player had a read on her, which I'm guessing at least one of them probably did, the back raise in this spot is so strong it just screams AA. Much the same way in low level games, if you ever see an amateur or a fish flat from UTG or another very early position, and then back raise, it's AA like 90-95% of the time.
Exactly. You are so far ahead, and you know from their prior bets they have pocket face cards, why scare them off preflop? Maybe she was feeling some bad ju-ju on the flop?
I'm guessing that, at Bilzerian's home game, his opponents are his dad's business partners who keep saying, "Wow, you bluffed me again. That's enough for me. Tell your dad I said hi."
Really good humor in this video tbh. Good video Doug
I remember when you folded KK's pre flop to Andrew Neeme ........ that was cold blooded !
Neeme kicked him under the table.
"Put that in your smoker and smoke it"
Best comment of the year...along with the Jerry Yang comments 😂
Last year's WSOP was won because the worst hand in KK vs QQ vs JJ spiked a set and took got a HUGE chip stack after that. Not saying he didn't play well (he certainly did), but that one hand is what got him to the final table and setting himself up to win.
JJ gets a set way too often.
@@pilocrap statistically speaking, JJ has a slightly higher chance of hitting a set than any other pocket pair but some would argue it's not too often.
This feels like semi-retired, working a part time job for the fun of it Doug. I like it
The Jomboy of poker lol... the comedic timing is great Doug!
Great to hear your commentary and I enjoy your sense of humor! I'll come over from Houston sometime and play at your place. I believe that as long as the economy is doing ok, the fields in the main event will grow every year.
Nothing is as crazy as that FT bubble hand with nick manion kings vs kings vs aces but folding kings pretty sick
I've folded KK pre exactly once. It was versus a tourist where I was just sure he had it. And... I was close, he had the other two kings.
you missed out on one of the sickest hands ever. i think it was hachems son vs michael mizrachi with quads vs full and they checked it down! was one of the day ones i think or day two
Calling with the straight flush on the river must’ve been the GTO play 😂😂
"He's never calling you with anything less than a higher str8 flush, bro."
more likely is that the player didn't realize he had the straight flush, he just thought he had the flush when he called
It was nearly an illegal play in the WSOP. If it wasn't for J10cc it would have been. If you have the nuts and you are last to act in a hand, you MUST raise. This is to prevent collusion, although I'm not sure how well it does that or even how often that situation would ever arise where two players who are colluding face each other and one has the stone cold nuts on the river, to the point they had to actually make this a rule. Seems very unlikely to happen.
@@nathanparsons3145Aaron was interviewed by pokernews about the hand and said the guy who called didn’t think of a hand that Aaron could have there other than JTcc
Or is just a giant nit
I’m friends with Aaron and he told me he prob would’ve folded to a shove
What a deep cut with the Ivey massage pic omg lol.
Buddy prolly thought that quads beat straight flush 😂
its more likely he tought he had a flush and not a straight flush.
I've seen it before at the casino. but instead it was a 4 card flush on board and the guy folded his straight flushes because he said the other guy must has the Ace high flush.. then when he folded he realized his 1 card made a straght flush and not just a small flush
chance of you getting aces/kings/queens paired is 221/3. so thats 73.66:1. if you get that- 2 pairs are left, with 5 other players (in six way) that is 221/5/2 for another player have one of the others thats 22,1:1. last pair is 221/4 (four players left) 55,25:1.
so chance for having QQ+KK+AA on same table (six way) is 73,66*22,1*55,41:1 = 90201 to 1 - meening that you expirience 3 players having exacly QQ+KK+AA, where you are one of them on the same table, every 90201 hand you play. for expirienced players thats not as uncommon as one might think.
This isn't quite right. The odds of AA vs KK vs QQ in a random deal at a 6 player table, where you are one of these players is 1 in 141,378. The reason for the discrepancy is two-fold:
1. In the second part of your calculation, you overcount combinations by a factor of 2.
2. After the first pair is removed, the odds change a little from 1 in 221 for the subsequent pairs.
Here's how you could make your approach perfect:
The odds you have one of AA,KK,QQ are 18/(52 choose 2), which is 1 in 73.66 as you said. Now that one of the pairs is removed, two remain, pair A and pair B. Out of the remaining 5 players, select 2. There are (5 choose 2) = 10 ways to do this. Now that we have the remaining 2 players selected, there are two ways to proceed. Both are fine,, but I will write both to illustrate why we don't have an extra factor of 2:
i) Select which player has pair A and which has pair B. There are 2 ways to do this. The odds of each player having their pair are 6/(50 choose 2)~1/204.16 and 6/(48 choose 2)=1/188. Thus we come to final odds of 10 * 2 * 1/73.66 * 1/204.16 * 1/188 ~ 1/141,378
ii) Out of the 2 chosen players, pick one, it doesn't matter which. This player can have either pair, and there are 12/(50 choose 2) ~ 1/102.08 ways to do this. The remaining player can only have the remaining pair, and there are 6/(48 choose 2)=1/188 ways to do this. Thus we come to final odds of 10 * 1/73.66 * 1/102.08 * 1/188 ~ 1/141,378
well agree that i did forget the less combinations after i get set a or b or c (101 combinations removed with first set and 99 more with 2nd set).
dont agree with the following "pick two"
since there are 5 players to get set b or c
and there is 4 playes to get remainding set.
(all factors have to happen)
you simply just cant say 10 * 2 * 1/73.66 * 1/204.16 * 1/188
but have to say 1/73.67 (set a or b or c) * (204,16/2(sets b+c)/5 random players) * 4/188 (set c amongs 4 random players)
so with my miss calculation factored in - the odds go down not up.
1:70634,8
lets ask you this : "if someone have AA, what are the chance of you having KK or QQ?" you would say 204,16/2
and if i asked you "if someone have AA and someone have KK, what are the chance of you having QQ?" you would say 188/1
if i said
"someone on the table have AA, and there are 5 players left, what are the chance of someone holding KK or QQ" you would say 204,16/2/5
if i said
"someone on table is holding AA and someone else KK on the table, and there is 4 players left, what is the chance of one holding QQ" you would say 188/4
but thx for the correction, had it in mind, at first but dident understand its impact, so i ignored it - that was a mistake.
You have the only poker podcast worth watching in terms of entertainment value alone
Doug - Your poker knowledge, content and humour is greatly appreciated.
Doug!?? Can we please get the breakdown on the check check four-of-a-kind vs full house hand between mizrachi and Hachem? It was super weird. I still don't understand what happened.
Was four of kind first to act or last act if he was first he check to check raise
Board was AA464. Mizrachi had 44 and Hachem had 66. Check check on turn. Check check on river.
@@noelcook2389Four of a kind was first to act.
Its simple, quads quy thought the opponent has an ace or nothing. So he checked for an check raise.
But the opponent had only a bad FH because any ace beats him.
So he did a check back.
Doug poker genius!! Watch, listen and learn!
Phan totally misplayed her hand. She basically played her hand face up. Sucks for her not being able to get any value.
Lol u havent played enough poker , she was probably happy they folded , too many suckouts in that tourney
Yeah, the backraise here was terrible. Assuming neither player had a read on her, which I'm guessing at least one of them probably did, the back raise in this spot is so strong it just screams AA. Much the same way in low level games, if you ever see an amateur or a fish flat from UTG or another very early position, and then back raise, it's AA like 90-95% of the time.
@@derenkov I'm not so sure about that... That kind of mindset is not how you win tournaments, this is a dream spot. And while it may have been nerve racking if both players had called, I'm sure she would have at the very least wanted QQ to call, as she had 10x what he had left to go all in with. Any player would take that all day, it would be totally insane not to. And if they both call and QQ wins, she's still going to almost double up. The more I think about it, the more I realize how wrong you are. Maybe in a cash game you'd be happier just to take it down and win $40,000 with no risk, but in a tourney, you have to take risks to win. Those blinds will eat you alive if you are conservative.
@@augustgreig9420 yea she was happy the big stack folded then wanted small stack to call
Bilzerian and Hellmuth playing like Mike Postle!
Seeing a new video of Polker hands is as exciting as flopping a set.
Keep 'em coming!
Doug crushing these videos 😂
Perfect mix of funny, hand history and information. Thank you Doug. Big fan!
The correct odds of AA vs KK vs QQ at a 9 player table in a given hand is 1 in 16,830.78 or 0.00594%.
Some other comments are incorrect, as you have to be careful here with the combinatorics. Lets calculate it right:
Number the players 1 through 9. The odds that exactly player 1 has AA, player 2 has KK, and player 3 has QQ is precisely 6/(52 choose 2)*6/(50 choose 2)*6/(48 choose 2). There are then (9 choose 3) ways to pick 3 players out of 9, and 3! ways to order those 3 players, so there (9 choose 3)*3!=9!/6! different ways to assign AA, KK, QQ, among the individually numbered 9 players. Thus the precise amount is the product of these quantities, 6/(52 choose 2)*6/(50 choose 2)*6/(48 choose 2)*9!/6! = 108/1817725, which is approximately 1/16,830.78.
The same approach implies that, in a given hand at a 9 player table, we have the following odds:
AA vs KK: 1 in 626.67
AA vs AA: 1 in 3760.06
AA vs KK vs QQ: 1 in 16,830.78
AA vs AA vs KK: 1 in 100,984
AA vs KK vs QQ vs JJ: 1 in 483,885
If they got it, they got it
Doug is one cool cat! Jayrentv rocks with homie.. the finger snap at the end is classic
@1:50(nerd checking in) How common is AA vs KK vs QQ?
let's do some math...
there are (52!/34!)/(2^9) ways to deal a full 9 ring game ~ 5.3359755e+26 (move the decimal point to the right 26 times. big number!)
now lets imagine each of the players' hands (i.e. two hole cards) as its own bin, so in a 9 ring game, we have 9 bins.
to simplify things, lets assume that the first three bins are the aa, kk, qq hands (we will rearrange this later to avoid under-counting).
there are 6 ways to make each pair, we have 6^3 = 216 ways to make the first three bins the way that we want them, and as for the next 6 bins, there are (46!/34!)/(2^6) ~ 2.9122263e+17 ways to deal out the remaining 6 hands. so we have 6^3*(46!/34!)/(2^6) ~ 6.2904087e+19 ways to deal out a 9-ring game, with seats 1,2,3 having the pairs that we care about
now, we restricted the table to have the pairs at seats 1,2,3, but in reality any seat can have them, so we have to multiply by 9! ---> 9!*(6^3*(46!/34!)/(2^6)) ~ 2.2826635e+25
the answer will be the number from the previous paragraph divided by the number in the first paragraph... (9!*(6^3*(46!/34!)/(2^6)))/((52!/34!)/(2^9)) ~ .00000016318797 or 000016318797% or about 1:10,000,000, so we would expect to see this scenario once every ten million hands.
Hellmuth playing like 2010 Tom Dwan is so pure.
Cool to see Aaron Barone still going strong playing poker. Remember him from the old 2+2 STTF days and loading on top of his SNG sessions 😅
15:14 shots fired 😂😂😂
Poker is alive and mostly well, my only problem is that so much of the US is unable to legally get to online poker. If they could, I’d venture we be at 15k+ main event entries already.
@dougpolkpoker do you ever feel like going to the WSOP main event?
Hey Doug, been watching your videos for a long time and really have developed a strong hatred for that out of place outlet in the bottom left corner of your facecam. Your videos wouldn’t be complete unless that outlet was removed from existence. Thank you.
Also keep making videos lol, always funny :)
12:25
What a straight flush !
I have a theory with main event numbers and that is we see more entries now because the youngsters who got involved during the initial boom are now peak income and can afford the entries. This is great short term but a decline is likely when you look at the average ages of entries it's going up year on year which nobody seems prepared to speak about.
Dude’s casually folding kings. Meanwhile there has been one recent hand involving Mateos with aces where he faced all in against AKs, easy call, AKs got runner flush. That was legit disgusting.
"You'd rather play for 1 minute and leave". Cold blooded haha
Here is the calculation for probability of AA vs KK vs QQ at an 8 player table.
There are 8 players to pick from to have the aces. Once the aces are picked, there are 7 remaining players to pick from to have KK, and then 6 remaining players to pick from to have QQ. There are 6 combinations each for AA, KK, and QQ. The remaining players can have any two of the remaining cards, (if we are okay with two people having QQ or KK or AA). That gives (46 choose 2), (44 choose 2), (42 choose 2), (40 choose 2)*(38 choose 2) for the remaining hands. Take the product of all the numbers listed to get the number of combinations of AA vs KK vs QQ. Now, we divide this by the total number of combinations of all 8 player hands. That is (52 choose 2)*(50 choose)*(48 choose 2)*(46 choose 2)*(44 choose 2)*(42 choose 2)*(40 choose 2)*(38 choose 2).
Most of these terms divide out, and we are left with a probability of
(8*7*6)*(6*6*6)/((52 choose 2)*(50 choose 2)*(48 choose 2) = 3.96*10^(-5) = .00396%.
For an n player table, this goes up to
(n*(n-1)*(n-2))*(6*6*6)/((52 choose 2)*(50 choose 2)*(48 choose 2)
So for 9 players, this means it is slightly higher at 0.00594%.
This is about 4-6 times more likely than a straight flush for a single player, but slightly less likely than one player at the table having a straight flush.
you are off.
p.s. its much better to think in terms of fractions as a poker player. you should stop using decimalization.
@@andrewdinns1746 Where is my mistake? I will make the correction.
For a calculation like this that probably will not make a difference in any poker game, I am happy using decimals personally. For the ones that matter, I find odds better than fractions or decimals, but that is my preference.
@@patrickgambill9326 nvm no mistake. i thought u made a typo and was just being a nit. .00396% = 0.0000396 and is correct. sry.
@@andrewdinns1746 No worries! I wanted to make sure I didn't spread any bad calculations by mistake
the blue "call now" screen was very funny
Doug you're so hilarious. KILLIN it out here.
A8 is not leading out into two players on the flop.
J8 and T8 is not always a call preflop from the SB, though sometimes the suited combos are in there.
JJ is almost always raising preflop.
So 88, JJ, J8, T8 are the only hands he can have for value, out of which 88 is most likely.
Your last sentiment was funny and on point. Cheers
lol Doug your outlet in the bottom left corner had me trying to wipe what I thought was a smear on my phone
Doug just wanted to flex his kings fold. I see you Dougy. Don’t worry.
Finally you post a vid. Lol always love ur stuff Douglas K Polk 😊
Could the straight flush guy have called all-in? I didn't see anything in the tweet that said he had anything behind.
Knocked out day 3. One has to think I am not playing against 1000s, I'm playing against eight people at a time.
That guy with the pocket 10’s who busted 1st hand….2 years ago, 1st hand he bets $400, I bump to$1,300. Three spades come out (which I didn’t notice at the time).I bet $1,200 and he raise to $4,500 with A-6-10 all spades. Next card A-6-10-A and I check, he goes $4,500 and I raise to $12k which he calls. The river is a blank. I know he’s got a K high flush but I all-in the rest of it. He takes a few minutes and calls. What did I have? He had the K high flush…..
Yohviral vs Galiana HU bluff for a bracelet????? YOU'VE SEEN IT, RIGHT?????
Top pros might not like the mask/glasses combo, but as a rec player who saves all year to go to the WSOP to fire one bullet in one tournament, I'm wearing both. Gotta get over it.
1:50 I have been in two hands with AA,KK,QQ, I was QQ both times. Another hand, KK,QQ,JJ and I was JJ.
5:10 is that a reference to Charlie's line "put that in your solver"...?
What about the Mizrachi hand on the bubble hand where he just called with the full house (2nd nuts) afraid of aces full!
Doug … the jokes Doug 😂🤣😂🤣
I've folded KK preflop three times, I was up against AA two of those times. These are rare situations, but I tend to trust my reads, 2 outta 3 ain't bad.
Doug I adore your humor - thank you
Doug, what about Lodge vs. Lodge... tournaments best 3 vs 3 live stream and 4 vs 4 live poker wearing San Antonio vs. Austin shirts tournaments $500 buy in 50k guaranteed cash 50k buy in 50 / 100 blinds???? Let's freaking go!!!!
I was in the bb srp with kj on an AJ65T board the guy bet flop n turn then x the river n shows JJ. He worried about qk
He said sorry thinking the set of 8's was good. Don't say sorry when you aren't sorry!
Day 2 entry has helped with the numbers more days for unique entries
That was a very savvy humble brag of yourself folding kings preflop 😂
i was playing in AC had JJ we had 4 way all in AA,KK,QQ,JJ and "10,10" folded
Put that in your solver. I laughed so hard I almost tore my stitches
table shuffler rigging it up real good......................
I had a guy not raise with quads because he was worried I had a royal when I just had second nut flush.
so you were 1 card away from royal?
Doug are you going to review Lena900s elimination hand from main event FT?
Phan always has aces there... I've seen so many people fold kk after that action and be right 90% of the time
Amazing reporting as always @FougPolkPoker
I think WSOP should give out BBB - B3 - B (cubed) = Bat Beat Busted chip or card weight
I play low stakes live tourneys and ALWAYS fold to the limp-backraise. I have yet to see anything but AA turned over. Maybe that makes me exploitable, I am fine with that.
That said, I recently accidentally limped (silently tossed in a single oversized chip) when i tried to minraise 77 UTG but didn't let on about my mistake. Goes call, call, 5 BB raise from the button, cold call from the BB, and I exploitatively shove 36 BB to take it down. Raiser mutters something about wanting to call but he just doesn't know "what that guy is doing" and points to me as he folds.
lmfao. this was a VERY funny video Doug. Hate ya and love ya at the same time but this was quality work.
I have to say that, those bad beats we like to advertise all over the internet are bad for the game image and must be a big deterrent to those curious about NLH...I can already hear them " See I told you it's all about luck"....sigh
That’s a cool photo of Darth Ngyuen.
I just called "bottom" quads in JJ822 😂 in my defense it was a mistake. I thought he put me all in and I was so excited I just snap called. But yeah, he just had raised 😂 luckily he had T high for the airball bluff vs my 10% pot lead with 0.5 spr
In this wsop, in day 3. I was hoping to be featured in this video as I was watching 😂
@9:57 In a tournament, isn't it a penalty if you only call with the nut hand on the river when you are heads up?
This is the kind of gold we expect from you
Loans are the biggest mistake
My first straight flush was at the WSOP. True story.
No mention of the guy bouncing in his chair throughout the whole hand when he flopped a set? Everybody saw it, except the guy with Ace in his hand who offloaded a ton of chips to him. For those curious, look up day 3 stream, 41m mark. Commentators were even commenting on his head bobble, lol.
hi,Doug,can u analize lena900 call for the tornment?
Poker is alive and well for those who’ve already made money in poker and then Crypto
If they make it over 100k entrants, the prize pool will be 1b...
I feel like an event that large would not be feasible to have all players playing simultaneously!
GTO geeks would never make those “questionable” plays that Hellmuth did. And they won’t have the bracelets either. I guess you were sitting at the table, with the goods on all the players tendencies
Can you do POKER HANDS analysis of Lococo A-3 VS Lu A-4 ??? and Adrian Mateos AA vs Hernandez AK ??? PLEASE !!!!! If you do this , i promise to sign up for Upswing Poker Lab
12:53 lol 🤣
Nice channel dude, please keep doing more like this = success 😉
i think GTO mixed with "Feel" is very important. sometimes the spirits around you be letting you know...
Helmuths implied image odds start to work. Only took 2 decades.
Where was this video on Saturday when I had Kings?
For once i dont blame the guy who got eliminated first by the pocket 8s i would never have pinned 4 of a kind as the first deal lol
I agree that poker is growing, however, we need to take into consideration that 10k is less in 2024 than it is in say, 2010.
Doug, how does it feel to simultaneously be the best looking man in poker while paradoxically bearing the most resemblance to Vanessa Selbst of anyone in the world?