Thank you. Great explanation. When I read the text book I got confused between total probability and Bayes theorem. You made it clear. Keep up the good work. Thanks.
I'm using the IPSUR( an Introduction to Probability and Statistics Using R) package in R by G.Jay Kerns to learn probability and statistics and Bayes theorem has been confusing me. Your explanation was quite enlightening and has completely explained it to me. I'll be recommending it to the author for inclusion in his next edition.
Hello, thank you for your help! Thus, we found that P(A|D) = [P(D|A)*P(A)] / P(D). However, would it be correct to say the following: P(A) = P(A|D)*P(D) + P(A|ND)*P(ND), thus P(A|D) = [ P(A)-P(A|ND)*P(ND) ] / P(D), ND standing for "not defective"? If not, why?
This is a great tutorial. I just have to point out that you really did leave an error in it though when you transferred the value from pg 2 to pg 3 for P(D|A). On pg 2: P(D|A)P(A) = 0.10(.36) On pg 3: P(D|A)P(A) = 0.036(.36) P(D|A) is actually the ratio of A's shipments that have been defective, right?
NP. I've been playing around with only a general understanding of Bayes Theorem, wishing to dive more deeply into understanding it for a while. Your explanation gave me a lot of context to help piece it together. I'm still not a Jedi master at Bayes, but inching ever closer still.
Thangaraj Arun I would like to help you. There is an implicit understanding that what I have produced is correct. If you are not obtaining the same result, then there is something missing in your calculation. If you provide what you are including in you calculation, we can help you correct your answer.
Thank you so much for the thorough, clear and easy to understand explanation/illustration/example for both theorems, they helped so incredibly much.
+Sandy Leung You are welcome and thanks for your feedback - so happy to help!
Thank you. Great explanation. When I read the text book I got confused between total probability and Bayes theorem. You made it clear. Keep up the good work. Thanks.
Visualization clears up so much for me! Thank you
I'm using the IPSUR( an Introduction to Probability and Statistics Using R) package in R by G.Jay Kerns to learn probability and statistics and Bayes theorem has been confusing me. Your explanation was quite enlightening and has completely explained it to me. I'll be recommending it to the author for inclusion in his next edition.
+Osunkoya Opeoluwa I like it! Anything I can do to help understand seemingly difficult concepts in math makes me happy.
Hello, thank you for your help! Thus, we found that P(A|D) = [P(D|A)*P(A)] / P(D). However, would it be correct to say the following: P(A) = P(A|D)*P(D) + P(A|ND)*P(ND), thus P(A|D) = [ P(A)-P(A|ND)*P(ND) ] / P(D), ND standing for "not defective"? If not, why?
This is a great tutorial. I just have to point out that you really did leave an error in it though when you transferred the value from pg 2 to pg 3 for P(D|A).
On pg 2: P(D|A)P(A) = 0.10(.36)
On pg 3: P(D|A)P(A) = 0.036(.36)
P(D|A) is actually the ratio of A's shipments that have been defective, right?
I see it now - you are right....probably should provide a comment! Thanks for making me aware!
NP. I've been playing around with only a general understanding of Bayes Theorem, wishing to dive more deeply into understanding it for a while. Your explanation gave me a lot of context to help piece it together. I'm still not a Jedi master at Bayes, but inching ever closer still.
nice one..helpful indeed..
how does P(D|A) suddenly equal to P(D|A) * P(A) when it was stated P(D|A) = 10%
really well explained thank you.
great video, thank you!
where the 0.036 come from?! It should be 0.1 09:10
thats what I'm thinking too. It looks like he did P(D|A) = the P(D|A)xP(A) and then multiplied the P(A) by that.
Hello, P(A|D) = P(D|A)*P(A)/P(D) = 0.036*0.36/0.072. That is, the quantity 0.036/0.072 needs to be multiplied by 0.5 to equal to P(A|D).
i get
P(D)=0.126
in total probability theorem...
Thangaraj Arun I would like to help you. There is an implicit understanding that what I have produced is correct. If you are not obtaining the same result, then there is something missing in your calculation. If you provide what you are including in you calculation, we can help you correct your answer.