Gramercy's El-Erian, Koenigsberger on Fed, EM, China
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- Опубліковано 27 січ 2022
- Gramercy Funds Chair Mohamed El-Erian and founder and Chief Investment Officer Robert Koenigsberger discuss Federal Reserve policy, emerging markets, and the influence of geopolitical risk on investment strategy. They speak on "Bloomberg The Open." El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, his opinions are his own.
Excellent interview again. I love Mohamed El-Erian for his candid ability to speak the truth and tell it how it is. Respect ✊
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Time after time, Mr. Mohamed surprising me. What a honest view he is holding. More wonder is his determination to take it to public. Thank you CNBC.
We need to go 10% interest rate. All fake corporations must go and people's hard working dollar should have the most value!!
A dollar is a dollar. Where do working dollar tax rates go to pay 10% government debt interest?
all corps are near fake! they all make 10% of their money by buying the S&P 500 etf. that flows through to earnings and share price goes up. then they buy more etfs! circular "melt ups".
nah,,, 6% is the historical norm.
But the fed will stop at 2 or 3 hikes as the market pukes and crashes.
zirp until hyperinflation/
Brazil is 9.5%
Jon is one of the BEST interviewers on bloomberg.
i still think this is a SUPER BUBBLE
Mohamed is a trusted source on the economy!
I respect his opinion.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 go back and look what he said 18 months ago before huge boost. Do the opposite of what he says. He has always preached gloom and doom. However, I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day.
No he is not! LoL
@@exhausted.dad.here- He called alarming inflation at 3%, 4%, 5%, 6% and now 7%. He must have 3 broken clocks
@@bobc9786 opinion on what exactly? From everything I know of him he's a wholesome guy but his predictions are nothing than extrapolations of the past which have been led to consistently being wrong. An index fund has significantly outperformed his predictions.
Point being, economists don't know what's going to happen any more than the next man or woman. They tell good stories and provide theories but I think it's important not to get caught up in them and definitely don't take it as sage financial advice.
Excellent interviews, yet my head hurts just listening to these guys.
Op
EVERYONE should look at physical silver bullion . Silver is over 50% below its two time high of $50.00 per ounce . For over 5000 years , silver always follows gold .
Gold bars are being stockpiled into central banks and governments as we speak ! WHY ???
Silver have been heavily shorted since last year.
@@Wulfcry
When it goes , it’s going to the moon .
Invest in real business .... Gold for boomers
@@Bekssss
5000 year history .
There are mines globally ; they cost billions to run & operate .
Central banks and governments are stockpiling gold …
Just for a complete change… the Fed should be honest & responsible !
When you hand over $$$ to the high spenders and manufacturers know it, prices rise.
Mohamed is right on here. The game has only just begun.
So any response of Fed to put out the Inflation fire is not the spark set in Apr 20 but would have to take account of the period since 2008-09..and will not be easy to handle....
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We need 3 to 4 interest rate hikes of 2+ percent each to stop the rise of inflation.
Unlikely , they r pushing the narrative that the inflation is from the supply chain disruption not the QE . They will be proven wrong but they dont care as the 1% is just getting richer and richer
That will destroy the economy because the massive debt problems everywhere. The fed can’t ease and can’t tighten. It’s fucked
Or, we just needs goods to flow again...
Dreaming aren't we. lol You stop inflation by butting the federal govt defict by 25% to 50%. Nobody body seems to be talking about the defict anymore.
Muhammad is spot on, rather the question to Muhammad is "How can we best protect ourselves from the impact of the devaluation and be in the form when it hit the wall.
Second question to Muhammad, "How will China policy by easing, reduce rates twice in a week and more further fown the road, being on opposite US affect the overall market. More to choose?
Last question, "How likely is the rise of the dollar to new heights and later drop follow by a recession, repeat of history again?
Jerome told me to prepare for inflation 🤷🏻♂️
Be vewy, vewy afwaid!
Gran Tierra energy GTE on the NYSE.
Markowitz argues that mean* and varaiance** of a stock price, provide a 'distribution of probable expected outcomes' and from this, portfolio choice depends upon a comparison of these attributes, however this requires effectively equivalent either god, or the law of energy conservation : systemic energy is constant, for an existential guarantee.
* The average or mean of 1 + 1 + 1 = 3 /3 = 1.
** The average dispersion of numbers from the mean, called the sample standard deviation, is the 'square root' of one minus the mean 'squared,' or one minus the mean times one minus the mean, plus one minus the mean squared and one minus the mean squared, divided by how many numbers there are minus one, which equals zero in this case.
Fed doesn't even know high how rates will go if Fed attempts to run off balance sheet.
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Brazil is a great place to buy stock right now....
Remember currency risk. Stocks are cheap because of huge inflation and high rates.
@@960john so US stocks going to be this cheap next year )))
@@Bekssss Not like Brazil. lol Interest rates are like 10% there. Or Russia. Stocks are cheap in Russia, anyway. But Rubl depreciate at 8-9% a year against US dollar. So not so great...
@@960john it's some time lag for USD lost this year 10% :)
Mr Buffet once said if the tide goes out it shows who has been swimming naked
They are going down 2008 2.0
I think we're in deep 💩 for financial stability.
Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.
Lord Palmerston
As soon as the talk of raising rates, everyone gets "Fed up...
First Fang fell today Meta...canary in a coal mine...initial drop in 2000 was 20% followed by 20% bounce...then the bottom dropped out
With no grease the bearings seize up
The can't cease purchasing securities, because this supports compensation and bonuses for Demigarchs. LGBFJBJT.
head winds, tail winds.. minimize the collateral.. Dudes.. I'm still trying to get my head around all of this economics stuff and it strikes me that 99% of the "capital" in the world is borrowed (forgive me if I don't have the exact figure). If it's anything near that, then it seems the total capital which exists is inflated by 100-fold due to the arbitrary process of banks deciding how much they are prepared to lend people. If I haven't buggered up anything so far, then the logical conclusion is when a banker wakes up one morning and decides to lend a little bit more (given the money he is lending is not existent but created out of thin air), everything (house prices etc) go up.
So the economy is sorted basically (at least locally in the UK) because Boris the buffoon allowed (I assume there is a process limiting the amount banks can lend which depends on approval from government else they would have been winging it a long time ago) banks to raise the amount which they would lend for a mortgage (I guess this is a sizable portion of the economy) from 5-times a person's salary to 7-times (only if you're a nurse or something) so maybe we should all invest in houses which are close to hospitals.
Please Mohamad, you seem like the local guru here where have I gone wrong?
When I see him on Bloomberg TV i just get up and do something until he's done.
You are pretty much bang on about the banking system--but I'm assuming you're being semi-cheeky haha.
Now, if I am not mistaken, the banks don't provide money completely in an arbitrary manner. Each banker/employee involved in providing a loan is trying make money for the company and incentivized to do so by getting commissions, bonuses, raises, or promotions (generally). So, then, it looks arbitrary short-term if they lend to anyone. But, the hope is, to make more money back in the future based on the interest charged. And, if you made a bad loan, you loose that money, which means no interest, which means they get closer to not having any money to continue operating and go out of business. So, there's a hope is the bank continues to make good loans and not make so many bad loans to burn themselves out. Banks can borrow from banks too before they burn out completely, but the costs get so big that eventually, you're out of money (insolvent). (Or so I surmise.)
So, essentially, not only is it a house of cards with respect to loans, its a house of cards with respect to having smart and talented people to help them and the economy "grow". But, then, the question is... Regardless of smarts or talent, do you think every hire at these banks hire people who are helping the bank and the economy grow? Or, is it simply their own bank accounts that grow at the expense of society?
@@Prash1c Hey man, cheers for engaging. I love economics when there's no jargon involved. The point you make about loans serving the purpose of rewarding efficient capital allocation, that doesn't justify bloating the world's capital by 100-fold through the arbitrary expansion of debt limits does it? I mean surely they could have got that anyway just lending the dosh that was actually knocking around in the vault?
So if that's true that the arbitrary and limitless expansion of debt limits has bloated the worlds capital by 100-fold, and as a result everything which depends on borrowed money (houses etc, probably shares or whatever) costs 100-times more than they otherwise would, surely we are living in a bit of a fictional world where it looks like assets are appreciating when really the only thing that is appreciating is debt limits.
It's confusing to me because people make a massive fuss about GDP growth or whatever as if it matters or is some intrinsic property of an economy or sector and I can't understand what the hell is actually growing!
@@damiengreen7000 Cheers!
On your point about GDP:
The massive fuss made is likely 3 fold:
1) snakeoil salesman selling his snake oil (no free lunch on Wall Street... They give you free advice on TV so they can sell into your buy)
2) people who don't entirely know what they are doing but are just following a playbook and there "street smarts"
3) some smart people who understand the problem but also understand the utility of a simple brief statistic like GDP
On the 100-fold increase and efficient allocation commentary:
Yes to everything haha. I think the problem is that we got so high because of gaming... money wasn't allocated efficiently. It was allocated into safe sure bets--like R/E. Hence, why we have so much inflated prices in the housing market. And, that easy-money and safety-mindset is everywhere... from allocation of capital, to hiring, to entrepreneurship... Its all a house of cards built on too many trying to "work smarter not harder" not understanding that their shortcuts may cause them to miss the big picture because they just want to get rich quick.
How long will this all last? Who knows!
@@klam77 Agreed but also, I've seen heard and seen very clever clever economists as well. They tend to be on top--else they eventually get fired. The one's you may have met are may very well be the lackeys but make a good living at doing whatever they do.
C'est la vie!
@@Prash1c Crazy times.. I just hope someone comes along and explains how we're both wrong (no jargon please). In the meantime..
So if debt availability determines the size of an economy (when it is measured in the local currency), then the other side of the coin that determines the size of an economy relative to another economy (in a different currency) seems to be exchange rates.
While we assume the markets "price in" any inequalities (
15 rate hikes + 25 boosters+USD drops...cause they need to keep printing moar!
This guy has prayed for the world to end for decades .
Nope !
He has been a market bear for a long time. Eventually he made it right this time after being wrong for years.
@@tommyma6562 yup,he's beyond a bear he gets paid to invoke was much negative sentiment as he can . Nobody is permanently negative unless they are mad about being wrong or getting paid to be . And every channel gets more views for warning rather than cheering. That's why they continue to say it's going to get worse and more rate hikes will happen now because they didn't raise the other day .when they only raise once it's gonna be the end of America .
Recession in 6 months.
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Watch who is manipulating stocks market and Down Jones up and down 34,000 to 37,000 points
It is not fresh injections of liquidity that caused this massive flate up of Inflation..surprising all but the net result of continued injections commenced in 2008, this aspect in recent narratives is seen objectively in light of Covid, but has to be seen in overall perspective of liquidity management since then.
2008's shockwave
liquidity risk!!!
Bring back Hugh Hendry
Brasil raising interests when bizarre becomes ludicrous the worlds largest slave state raising interest on the 200MM bank slaves what a tragedy 😡😡😡😡😡🥵🥵
Thay said a lot of nothing. El-Erian just speaks very abstract obvious facts, so to sound smart while having not much to say.
WHEN POWELL IS LOOKING DOWN AT Q CARDS.. RUN 🏃♂️ 🏃♂️ 🏃♂️
Pull all of your money out of the banks, and save yourselves.
Nah, the Greenspan Put will save us. (Gov will bail them out)
"Lingers"? ... Try dominates among the informed.
0.1% Atlanta Fed Jan. GDP
Dooom gloom boomerrrrr
LOL the 🌈🐻 himself, the sky is falling! 8 rate hikes, off load the entire balance sheet today! Shirt down every bank!!!!!! World is falling apart
Buy the dip 🤙
Tell me how is the economy looking bright rn
@@jonathanleclerc2788 the economy is strong along with employment numbers, only thing sucking azz has been the stock market
@@samangeles1846 gogo strong economy then! 👌
0.1% Atlanta Fed GDP. Stagflation is here
The millionaires around the world think they will be exempt from the great reset...🤣🤣🤣
Fear the Brandon
get a job.
I suspect the S&P500, Dow and Nasdaq to crash 40% when US 10 year yields near or pass 2.5%
Thing is no one believes rates can rise that much.
Mohammed is disappointed...lol...no wonder, this guy is calling crash for 13 years....now he thinks its his time...nah dream on bruh!
Your gains broh, your gains... probably gone.
Whoa, broh,,, wohha LOL!
Don't worry buy another joke stock... hell farts in jar... I hear they're going for good gains broh... Farts in jar!
Shit dude. Nothing matters... big greens tendies chicken shits and goobers... green in the wallets.
Nobody and nothing else... so long as you got the Gains bro... all 'bout them gains, am I right?
El-Erian loves the term "journey" we're all on an economic journey....🙄