that's a lot of companies! appreciate the insights -- definitely skipped ahead to BCEL, RGNX, MDGL, and SAVA. I forgot Viking exists! Been so long since the NASH hype era...
on a sidenote you do not seem happy going through your picks and past recommendations in this vid. It's been an absolutely brutal year for bios, you're honestly doing as well as if not better than most biotech-based hedge funds. The sector will turn -- and if you think it won't, it never hurts to add stocks outside it.
Appreciate the kind words! It has been tough but I think I could have tweaked my strategies with some companies to give myself a better advantage. Ones that stick out are: - I should have sold some TRIL closer to the peak (I got greedy wanting to hold the whole position when I could have just held 1/3 or something) - I shouldn't have bought BCEL so early (the stock sold off quite a bit before it made sense to anticipate any 'run-up") - I shouldn't have held companies without upcoming catalysts (mdgl, vktx) I do have non-biotech accounts that are doing better. Thanks again!
To survive profitably, you almost had to play the ups and downs of Annovis, SAVA and other psycho stocks. Holding has not worked well. Rather depressing which can lead to stupid selling and long slow drops with little bounces here or there. Genomes and stem cell/ regenerative sectors have done fine, the rest of small cap biotechs have mostly slowly slid since 2/21. Need another rotation. Otherwise gains only come on catalysts and PR. Thanks for this comprehensive overview. I thought it was just about earnings, which I already knew.
Matt - We like when you "beat to death" the CNS companies, keeping in mind the magnitude of potential patients. Would you consider producing a quarterly summary of CNS therapy catalysts?
Ha! Thank you. I could do something like that. I'll definitely be watching the upcoming CRTX readout, but besides that, I think most interesting CNS updates are coming in 2022.
@@breakingbiotech Thanks Matt. Besides the CRTX p3 Alz readout, AVXL may have one or two P2b/P3 ReTT syndrome readouts. And there is always the possibility of partnerships being formed and other unexpected events.
What about Catabasis? They recently completed a reverse split only allowing 12 mil shares in the float. They have QLS215 and they believe it will replace the current first in class treatments for Hereditary Angioedema. Clarus, Astrazeneca, Viridian, Perceptive, Xontogeny and Armstice all have a postion there. Thanks
I am not sure I would agree about the curis updates being unlikely to move the stock much. The company has said they want to pursue aa for both flt3 and splicesome mutations so if that data stays strong as n gets larger and no issues with safety at the phase 2 dose it will prob be up a lot.
I jumbled that a bit, but I meant to say that since investors already expect positive data, these on-going updates need to show even better data in order to move the stock. This isn't always the case, but my experience is that after the first positive news, the subsequent ones are less impactful. CRIS does have some nuance to it, given the target, but it's something to keep in mind.
I think rhabdo is one of the major concerns with Curis so I think the safety st 300mg is as important as efficacy which is likely to be good. I agree that efficacy is unlikely to improve enough to move stock up but def think 0 cases of rhabdo at phase 2 dose will be a major upside catalyst.
I think their full dataset is coming in Sept? I didn't have a chance to get through it. Their AAIC presentation was difficult to parse out. The sell off put them at a a more attractive price point but I need to see what exactly the 'full dataset' would mean. They have had a bunch of data releases lately and I'm concerned this one won't add enough.
"It seems like I have been incorrect in my decision to hold Trillium" Haha! I'm sure, a week later, you will take that back ;). Congrats!
My timing couldn't have been better to call out TRIL there, lol.
Thank you!
Amazing presentation. Thank you.
Congrats on TRIL!
Thank you!
감사합니다 형님. 혹시 휴머니젠은 어떠신가요? _ how about HGEN?? I was very impressed with your lecture in Korea and would like to ask your thoughts on HGEN.
that's a lot of companies! appreciate the insights -- definitely skipped ahead to BCEL, RGNX, MDGL, and SAVA.
I forgot Viking exists! Been so long since the NASH hype era...
on a sidenote you do not seem happy going through your picks and past recommendations in this vid. It's been an absolutely brutal year for bios, you're honestly doing as well as if not better than most biotech-based hedge funds. The sector will turn -- and if you think it won't, it never hurts to add stocks outside it.
Appreciate the kind words! It has been tough but I think I could have tweaked my strategies with some companies to give myself a better advantage.
Ones that stick out are:
- I should have sold some TRIL closer to the peak (I got greedy wanting to hold the whole position when I could have just held 1/3 or something)
- I shouldn't have bought BCEL so early (the stock sold off quite a bit before it made sense to anticipate any 'run-up")
- I shouldn't have held companies without upcoming catalysts (mdgl, vktx)
I do have non-biotech accounts that are doing better. Thanks again!
To survive profitably, you almost had to play the ups and downs of Annovis, SAVA and other psycho stocks.
Holding has not worked well. Rather depressing which can lead to stupid selling and long slow drops with little bounces here or there.
Genomes and stem cell/ regenerative sectors have done fine, the rest of small cap biotechs have mostly slowly slid since 2/21.
Need another rotation. Otherwise gains only come on catalysts and PR.
Thanks for this comprehensive overview. I thought it was just about earnings, which I already knew.
Matt - We like when you "beat to death" the CNS companies, keeping in mind the magnitude of potential patients. Would you consider producing a quarterly summary of CNS therapy catalysts?
Ha! Thank you. I could do something like that. I'll definitely be watching the upcoming CRTX readout, but besides that, I think most interesting CNS updates are coming in 2022.
@@breakingbiotech Thanks Matt. Besides the CRTX p3 Alz readout, AVXL may have one or two P2b/P3 ReTT syndrome readouts. And there is always the possibility of partnerships being formed and other unexpected events.
replimune also postponed all of their readouts to q1 22 when they released q2 earning
Thanks for the heads-up, I totally missed this.
Kind of strange.
Are you able to cover sava again ?
What about Catabasis? They recently completed a reverse split only allowing 12 mil shares in the float. They have QLS215 and they believe it will replace the current first in class treatments for Hereditary Angioedema. Clarus, Astrazeneca, Viridian, Perceptive, Xontogeny and Armstice all have a postion there. Thanks
Interesting. Thanks for the suggestion. I haven't had a chance to look at them, but I'll put them on my list.
I am not sure I would agree about the curis updates being unlikely to move the stock much. The company has said they want to pursue aa for both flt3 and splicesome mutations so if that data stays strong as n gets larger and no issues with safety at the phase 2 dose it will prob be up a lot.
I jumbled that a bit, but I meant to say that since investors already expect positive data, these on-going updates need to show even better data in order to move the stock. This isn't always the case, but my experience is that after the first positive news, the subsequent ones are less impactful.
CRIS does have some nuance to it, given the target, but it's something to keep in mind.
I think rhabdo is one of the major concerns with Curis so I think the safety st 300mg is as important as efficacy which is likely to be good. I agree that efficacy is unlikely to improve enough to move stock up but def think 0 cases of rhabdo at phase 2 dose will be a major upside catalyst.
That's true! I think at 300mg they are likely to be good on safety given most of the other signals were at 400 or higher, IIRC
what about ANVS?
I think their full dataset is coming in Sept? I didn't have a chance to get through it. Their AAIC presentation was difficult to parse out. The sell off put them at a a more attractive price point but I need to see what exactly the 'full dataset' would mean. They have had a bunch of data releases lately and I'm concerned this one won't add enough.
@@breakingbiotech
thanks
$hepa earnings coming out tomorrow aftermarket 👀