I consider your channel one of my most trusted sources of financial information on UA-cam. No BS. Just facts. This is the info I missed going to college. Thanks Cameron.
Finally, someone on UA-cam that performs actual financial analysis from the financial statements and presents them in an easy to understand manner from a free cash flow perspective! Time saver! Subscribed! Liked! Keep up the good work! 👍
Hi, have you thought about updating your video with the latest earnings? It’s okay if you still believe that it is overvalued but if your perspective has changed it could be a valuable lessons for everyone. This would help us improve and understand the limitations of the current valuation model.
NVDA is very similar to Sun in 1997, when it was selling practically gold because all internet companies needed sun workstations to operate websites. A few years later Sun was sold for pennies on the dollar.
Picked up a few hundred shares of NVDS at 35. Holding to 67. That's my 10 year treasury! Once I saw TSM crater, I knew the amount of orders for chips was cosplay! Sorry, can't use preorders as revenue stream to mislead the retail crowd. Someday, but not now!
*what a HORRIBLE decision as of today 2/6/24!!!!* 🤣 NVDA is my largest position (+500 shares with avg. cost basis $121.39 most shares acquired 4th quarter '22). Your wife (and you?) obviously don't have a clear grasp of specific grip NVDA has pertaining to it's top selling chip- competitors aren't even close to catching up, that's why NVDA keeps going up.....bubble, sure, but *NOT* for the next year or two (at LEAST)!!! *NVDA will cross into $1K/share by 2025* (which will make your wife's decision 5 months ago, further flawed).
People are trashing Cameron in the comments but I think theyre missing the point that its about avoiding downside... impossible to predict how wild a stock like this can get but he makes a good case for why its not worth taking the risk
I respect the very intelligent financial analytics, excellent work. The question I have is that where i totally understand the valuation concern and how their market cap could come down despite earnings increasing. However, I would think the stance improves as they earn more revenue. For example, they are 30 billion in sales now, which is. 40x multiplier to the market cap. If they grow from 30 billion to over 100, then even at a 10x multiplier we’re still at the 1 trillion market cap. I heard their sales prediction into 2027-2028 could be 200-300 billion so if that is true, and we maintained even a 10x multiples of sales, then we’d be at 1.5-3 trillion market cap, so we’d 3x the stock. I’d think that 80$ valuation could occur if there is vulnerability in the short term while we still have only 30-40 billion in sales. Or, when the AI gravy train is over in 5-10 years and we have to still earn those annual sales but are having trouble.
Understood that the multiplier of 70x isn’t sustainable, but if the forward P/E ratio is reduction from 200 to 20-30, that increases value and could attract more shareholders without changing the price. So, it would make the 500/share more valuable, thus driving it further?
One thing to note is that that stock based compensation, while growing, is lessening as a percentage of equity over the past years as stock based comp doubled while the share price went up over six times. Of course thats stupid because nobody knows what the stock price will do but still interesting.
Love this channel! Super appreciate you explaining your thought process. Was ballsy to make this NVDA clip. It's definitely way overvalued, priced for utmost perfection, and I see it being flogged in any downturn or miss.
What happens once all data centers are outfitted with NVIDIA chips - They will not require faster chips for a long time or do they? Also, once LLMs are trained, the question is wether you still need so fast chips to run the models?
There will always be a desire to have a better, faster chip. Even beyond what is there now, which is highly advanced. Do more, faster, better. Improve supply chain and better meet demand. The demand right now is through the roof and AI isn’t going away, this is real.
NVDA buyers are buying due to FOMO and also miss to understand value in AI software vs hardware. They miss out on the logic that software companies the one who buy hardware will jump to next affordable hardware vendor once there is an alternative available. NVDA will end up have to adjust their margins which will have big impact on their earnings.
this comment didn't age well.......(NVDA reached *$1062/share* today 5/23/24) just another retail investor who still doesn't understand that even at today's price, NVDA is cheap....so glad I ignored BAD ADVICE like this comment and have been holding onto my *507* shares of NVDA ($134.78/share cost basis)- NOT selling a single one (likely adding to it over next year) for at least the next 1-2 years...... *SMH*
👍Thanks. 👍 THE BIG Q: technically and legally, if NVIDIA's earnings come in below expectations, does it have enough cash to promise a stock buyback (in order to avert a crash in its stock price) ?????
Cash flow statement is the most important statement there is, shows the real story. The momentum guys and the option guys are messing with it. The stock is worth 2 times book at most. They all come down. Also, QQQ is dependent on 7 stocks and NVDA is part of them. If you got in years ago great, but chase it now? Why.
I was wondering about stock buy back when they don’t have enough cash on hand. I thought growing company needs to spend cash on capital improvement to make more products for future sales, marking up prices for higher revenue is short lived business practice, too many competitors. The high stock compensation is a sign of greed, it is good for employees but not for the company. If it is not good for the company, it is not good for investors.
I would nibble under $200 with a long term hold knowing it could possibly go to about $100. NVDA will trade at a premium but the price now is insane the Fomo in this company well it speaks for itself. I don’t like the macro right now anyone still in this is playing with a massive downside right now. I’m a growth investor very comfortable buying some future earnings NVDA is just in a world of their own.
NVDA might be the luckiest company in the world .They accidentaly caught lightning in a bottle twice! By companies using their GPUs to do things they weren't actually designed to do. Crypto mining and AI computation.
no they spent many years to develop AI chips. jensen said his original goal starting this company was to provide for data center workload. nevertheless, biggest bubble on wall st for crypto yes that was pure luck
Thing is, there is a ton of stocks with higher multiples. It’s a hyper growth stock with no real competition. I don’t think it has an entry point right now with the uncertainty globally. Clearly it’s not a value stock, or a growth stock, it’s hyper growth
Not according to Nvidia’s guidance Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down I just did a video on it Beware ! Main stream financial News is a giant scam 😂
I think 120 is probably more likely relative to historical trends and obviously these numbers change as the story progresses but yeah a 90% crash is likely.
Cameron, why would you use assumed growth rates rather than analysts earnings projections? I would think the next 1-2 years of analyst earnings are generally in the ballpark. At least from my experience they have most of the time been quite accurate and its rare to see a company provide completely out of line results. This is because the analyst is calculating business cycles, inventories, customer demand thats being communicated to the company. Its actually not that difficult and I have to do this in my own business projecting earnings for myself and I get generally close to what actually happens. . It seems more rational to use projections based on the business flow rather than what seem to me as a random choice. All that said, your model would be very different if NVDA brings in the 365% projected this year and 43% for 2024.
Analysts are wrong frequently and I don’t have their models, no idea how they get to the price. At least with my numbers I know the underlying assumptions
@@CstewartCFA what about the news reporting on nvidia shipping 550,000 units of h100 in 2023 , cost 3k sell 30k each, 1000% profit margin, markup 70k each to china , est. $28b revenue.
Bro just asking why don't you analyse with latest Q1&Q2 earning report data? It could be more attractive as old data not relecting the latest trend. Just an opinion
Yes !!!! In this earnings report, Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down I just did a video on it Beware ! Main stream financial News is a giant scam 😂
their trailing 12 months net income is ~10 billion so far in 2023. stock comp is 3 billion. Their projected growth is 200% in 2024. They have a monopoly on AI accelerators, through both software and hardware superiority, which are forecasted to growth at least 30% CAGR over the next 10 YEARS. AI will be a 10+ trillion dollar industry in the next 20/30 years that will disrupt every industry. Computing power needed for AI is exponentially increasing and all companies are desperate today to win the AI race. Companies are valued on future cashflows, not past.
@@CstewartCFA That may be the case, but analyst are projecting 11 EPS and 16 EPS in 2024 & 2025 alone. This would be it at a ~30 PE in 2025. I don't think this stock is as overvalued as many make it out to be
I can't pull the trigger on NVDA either. So many are saying it is going to be 2 trillion valuation while having 60 billion in revenue by 2025. How does that even make sense? These are from people who consider themselves quality financial analysts. Just looney.
Where is the follow up to this video? Why don’t you have the guts to continue calling out NVDA? Just cause the price skyrocketed since this video doesn’t mean you go silent…there have have been numerous red flags on nvda’s earnings reports and I’d like to hear your thoughts on NVDA again.
Started to sell once it got over 450. Looks too high, my it ppl tell me nvidia position/platforms will be challenged by other competitors once next gen stuff hit mainstream. 2-5 years down the road.
But you told us the same a few months ago when it was going down. We listened and missed the boat. I get it, you are value investors, this stock has never been a value play even when it was $30 stock. I agree, this stock belongs to the $80 area, but the stock market is run by manipulators (Wallstreet, Hedge funds, etc.), they will pour gas whenever they like, nothing you can do about it.
You are very knowledgeable on the numbers/charts, but not on the core fundamentals of Nvidia's products that have little or no competition in the five segments they dominate. AI is happening now with Nvidia selling every high margin AI chip TSMC can make with a backlog going into 2024. None of your comparisons apply to Nvidia.
How many times do you have to be wrong with NVDA before you stop? You should know evaluation methods and assumptions aren’t linear across all companies. You don’t understand some of the companies you make videos on well enough to apply as many valuations as you do.
It's a bubble. AI wont solve issues that we have in the world. Multiple repeatable things that can be achieve/teached to AI can allready be done without massive AI-backbone. At the moment AI is just very expensive game of guessing the right word. Actually this AI bubble has become more of an security risk cause there is chance it can be teached to decrypto things. This is very dangeous specially what comes to global power politics.
Can you make a retake video on Nvidia valuation post the latest earnings and guidance? They are expecting 20% growth per quarter till end of the year which would bring them to close to 15 eps for the full year
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Would have been an informative video if it wasn't inaccurate because Nvidia is trading at less than 30X forward. Also you said their stock based compensation reduces their free cash flow, which it doesn't, it just dilutes the shares. Lastly that 2024 projected ebita is way too conservative, they're going to produce that ebita in each quarter from now forward.
Nvidia normal ebitda cagr is 25% (over 20 years mind you, not sure how you guys just noticed...) but sure... Let's drop it down to 5%. Yes, they did 25% off of video game nerds, but they can't keep that up with a huge ai revenue base unlocked... /s.
I'm so tired of the bulls shouting anyone down that does not buy this ridiculous valuation.. we are in 2000-2001 bubble territoty all over again... Thank you for this logical analysis
You think Nvidia sales peaked on $800 crypto gpus, when they're about to sell H100 for 20-40k..... Lol.... This is why you don't follow headlines. Crypto boom is nothing compared to the ai revenue Nvidia is about to recognize. The gpus are already sold out for 2 years... They just have to be delivered....
I consider your channel one of my most trusted sources of financial information on UA-cam. No BS. Just facts. This is the info I missed going to college. Thanks Cameron.
I’m honored by your comment and the likes that followed. Thank you for watching.
hahahaha.
Not on this video.
@@CstewartCFA Not sure what you thought was "rational" about your take on nvidia. And nvidia is STILL a buy at 730
could u do an updated vid? they already did the ebitda you predicted for 2033
Don't confuse people with the facts. They don't want to hear it. 🤷🏻♂️
🤣
😆
I want to hear it bruh😢
Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down
I just did a video on it
Real investor wants to hear it 🤷 Channel is with word "rational", so...
Finally, someone on UA-cam that performs actual financial analysis from the financial statements and presents them in an easy to understand manner from a free cash flow perspective! Time saver!
Subscribed! Liked!
Keep up the good work! 👍
Thank you!!!!!
Told myself it was over priced when I sold it in 2019…….
Ouch
This channel is super underrated
Hi, have you thought about updating your video with the latest earnings? It’s okay if you still believe that it is overvalued but if your perspective has changed it could be a valuable lessons for everyone. This would help us improve and understand the limitations of the current valuation model.
NVDA is very similar to Sun in 1997, when it was selling practically gold because all internet companies needed sun workstations to operate websites. A few years later Sun was sold for pennies on the dollar.
🙈 I am old enough to remember that like yesterday. So many of my friends lost their savings when they tried to get rich on tech stocks.
Can we get an update vid?
Hindsight is 20/20 but NVDA is trading above $720 today. I sold some at $591.
Wild
well done, the crash is coming
Picked up a few hundred shares of NVDS at 35. Holding to 67. That's my 10 year treasury! Once I saw TSM crater, I knew the amount of orders for chips was cosplay! Sorry, can't use preorders as revenue stream to mislead the retail crowd. Someday, but not now!
My wife already sold her NVIDIA shares at $400/share. To me, it is a grenade with the pin already pulled.
Put options
Thx her
Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down
I just did a video on it
Main stream financial News is a giant scam 😂
*what a HORRIBLE decision as of today 2/6/24!!!!* 🤣 NVDA is my largest position (+500 shares with avg. cost basis $121.39 most shares acquired 4th quarter '22). Your wife (and you?) obviously don't have a clear grasp of specific grip NVDA has pertaining to it's top selling chip- competitors aren't even close to catching up, that's why NVDA keeps going up.....bubble, sure, but *NOT* for the next year or two (at LEAST)!!! *NVDA will cross into $1K/share by 2025* (which will make your wife's decision 5 months ago, further flawed).
$800 now lol
@@fhowland Yes, she would be quite depressed -- if she hadn't spent the entire $20K to buy Eli Lilly at $300.
Appreciate your channel 🙌
Stocks aren't purchased for past performance but expected future performance. Retail investors cant move the needle like that on large cap stocks.
It’s important to conduct your own research and make investment decisions based on your own analysis.
Thank you for your cash flow analysis.
People are trashing Cameron in the comments but I think theyre missing the point that its about avoiding downside... impossible to predict how wild a stock like this can get but he makes a good case for why its not worth taking the risk
Walking your own path can be lonely, no problem
I respect the very intelligent financial analytics, excellent work.
The question I have is that where i totally understand the valuation concern and how their market cap could come down despite earnings increasing. However, I would think the stance improves as they earn more revenue. For example, they are 30 billion in sales now, which is. 40x multiplier to the market cap. If they grow from 30 billion to over 100, then even at a 10x multiplier we’re still at the 1 trillion market cap. I heard their sales prediction into 2027-2028 could be 200-300 billion so if that is true, and we maintained even a 10x multiples of sales, then we’d be at 1.5-3 trillion market cap, so we’d 3x the stock.
I’d think that 80$ valuation could occur if there is vulnerability in the short term while we still have only 30-40 billion in sales. Or, when the AI gravy train is over in 5-10 years and we have to still earn those annual sales but are having trouble.
Perfect work. Thank you
Amazing video, good job cameron 👍
NVIDIA's current evaluation is irational
Totally
Understood that the multiplier of 70x isn’t sustainable, but if the forward P/E ratio is reduction from 200 to 20-30, that increases value and could attract more shareholders without changing the price. So, it would make the 500/share more valuable, thus driving it further?
Enjoying the content, thank you Cameron !
The current EV/EBIDTA is actually 166.... and P/FCF is 210... Insanely overvalued
This aged like milk.
Mark Cuban lost $2.5 billion because he didnt invest in Uber due to being OVERVALUED. 🤷
Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down
I just did a video on it 🫡
@@lotto5742I remembered how the doubters when Netflix became public.
Another great video. Missed the run up. It got away from me before I got in. Even at half this price I can't see getting in.
U will get ur 50% discount
Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down
I just did a video on it
Main stream financial News is a giant scam 😂
@@Agorax_gg Is it really? 😂
Great Video ! Nvidia is way over valued & that's why I sold mine at about $430 which I had bought at about $150 .
And then you shorted it?
@@TheFinnmacool No, just locked in the gains !
@@eagerbeever22 Well done!
nice
Congrats! Would look at nvds (nvda bear etf) Inverse head and shoulders.
Great video - thanks
One thing to note is that that stock based compensation, while growing, is lessening as a percentage of equity over the past years as stock based comp doubled while the share price went up over six times. Of course thats stupid because nobody knows what the stock price will do but still interesting.
Thank you sir!
more like THANKS for losing YOU lots of *NVDA gains* (5 months later). SMH
I think the stock buyback is for next year’s stock base compensation for their employees.
Love this channel! Super appreciate you explaining your thought process.
Was ballsy to make this NVDA clip. It's definitely way overvalued, priced for utmost perfection, and I see it being flogged in any downturn or miss.
very good sharing. I agree with your conservative approach of analysis.
You dont understand the math admit it.
thank you for sharing this amazing video
What happens once all data centers are outfitted with NVIDIA chips - They will not require faster chips for a long time or do they? Also, once LLMs are trained, the question is wether you still need so fast chips to run the models?
This are the right questions. And i think it will lead to a big crash of nvidias stock price. maybe not in this year, but for sure in the next 5.
There will always be a desire to have a better, faster chip. Even beyond what is there now, which is highly advanced. Do more, faster, better. Improve supply chain and better meet demand. The demand right now is through the roof and AI isn’t going away, this is real.
computing power needed for AI is exponentially increasing and AI will be a 10+ trillion dollar industry
I'm loving nubank at its current price
NVDA buyers are buying due to FOMO and also miss to understand value in AI software vs hardware. They miss out on the logic that software companies the one who buy hardware will jump to next affordable hardware vendor once there is an alternative available. NVDA will end up have to adjust their margins which will have big impact on their earnings.
Are you saying NVDA is a monopoly now
Nvidia agrees with u
Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down
I just did a video on it
Beware !
Main stream financial News is a giant scam 😂
this comment didn't age well.......(NVDA reached *$1062/share* today 5/23/24) just another retail investor who still doesn't understand that even at today's price, NVDA is cheap....so glad I ignored BAD ADVICE like this comment and have been holding onto my *507* shares of NVDA ($134.78/share cost basis)- NOT selling a single one (likely adding to it over next year) for at least the next 1-2 years...... *SMH*
can you make a review for SE stock? thank you
Finally a rational mind. Thank you.
Just doesnt understand basic maths.
👍Thanks. 👍 THE BIG Q: technically and legally, if NVIDIA's earnings come in below expectations, does it have enough cash to promise a stock buyback (in order to avert a crash in its stock price) ?????
Not sure
Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down
I just did a video on it
Beware !
The cash flow per share is 4.76 for ffs ! The operating cash flow is 11.9BILLION NVDA is one of the strongest stocks in the market today .
Cash flow statement is the most important statement there is, shows the real story. The momentum guys and the option guys are messing with it. The stock is worth 2 times book at most. They all come down. Also, QQQ is dependent on 7 stocks and NVDA is part of them. If you got in years ago great, but chase it now? Why.
Agree with it being extremely overvalued but the growth rate of 5% is a little too pessimistic.
Im a noob in stocks. Sooo....if a stock goes up too fast, is that a warning of a coming crash?
I was wondering about stock buy back when they don’t have enough cash on hand. I thought growing company needs to spend cash on capital improvement to make more products for future sales, marking up prices for higher revenue is short lived business practice, too many competitors. The high stock compensation is a sign of greed, it is good for employees but not for the company. If it is not good for the company, it is not good for investors.
Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down
They r milking before the crash
I just did a video on it
Beware !
Main stream financial News is a giant
Great warning, but these guys are the leader in their field, and we aren't going backwards with GPU'S. Hedge at your own peril
I would nibble under $200 with a long term hold knowing it could possibly go to about $100. NVDA will trade at a premium but the price now is insane the Fomo in this company well it speaks for itself. I don’t like the macro right now anyone still in this is playing with a massive downside right now. I’m a growth investor very comfortable buying some future earnings NVDA is just in a world of their own.
Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down
I just did a video on it
Main stream financial News is a giant scam 😂
fair value probably 150-180, at most
Good Job!!!! Thanks :)
Thank you
NVDA might be the luckiest company in the world .They accidentaly caught lightning in a bottle twice! By companies using their GPUs to do things they weren't actually designed to do. Crypto mining and AI computation.
Yeah.... lucky..... lol
no they spent many years to develop AI chips. jensen said his original goal starting this company was to provide for data center workload. nevertheless, biggest bubble on wall st
for crypto yes that was pure luck
Have you ever done a video on Constellation Software? CNSWF
I've went out from Nvidia about month ago when it became ridiculous. Can you do Autodesk and or Adobe please??
I'd like to see an ADBE vid too.
Thing is, there is a ton of stocks with higher multiples. It’s a hyper growth stock with no real competition. I don’t think it has an entry point right now with the uncertainty globally. Clearly it’s not a value stock, or a growth stock, it’s hyper growth
Till now, the hyper growth is just speculation. Lets see what they will announce...
Not according to Nvidia’s guidance
Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down
I just did a video on it
Beware !
Main stream financial News is a giant scam 😂
amazing as always... but maybe 85$ is harsh.. personally around a 100$ would be acceptable.
hahahahahaha.
It’s closer to $85 now after the the stock split
Cameron, please consider SMCI next. They are related to NVDA but have down to earth metrics
Interesting stock
Can you please do AMD in the future? Thanks
Another great one, can you look at GIS, General Mills?
Very insightful.. but there’s no logic in this market.
for me that is fine the 10% for the employees. No employees, no company.
Did you short it? That would show us that you are serious and confident about your opinion.
He is a shorter which is what this gobbldygook video is all about.
I think 120 is probably more likely relative to historical trends and obviously these numbers change as the story progresses but yeah a 90% crash is likely.
Ha like your comparison with Crypto currency , Apple to ??
Cameron, why would you use assumed growth rates rather than analysts earnings projections? I would think the next 1-2 years of analyst earnings are generally in the ballpark. At least from my experience they have most of the time been quite accurate and its rare to see a company provide completely out of line results. This is because the analyst is calculating business cycles, inventories, customer demand thats being communicated to the company. Its actually not that difficult and I have to do this in my own business projecting earnings for myself and I get generally close to what actually happens. . It seems more rational to use projections based on the business flow rather than what seem to me as a random choice. All that said, your model would be very different if NVDA brings in the 365% projected this year and 43% for 2024.
Excellent point.
Analysts are wrong frequently and I don’t have their models, no idea how they get to the price. At least with my numbers I know the underlying assumptions
@@CstewartCFA what about the news reporting on nvidia shipping 550,000 units of h100 in 2023 , cost 3k sell 30k each, 1000% profit margin, markup 70k each to china , est. $28b revenue.
Bro just asking why don't you analyse with latest Q1&Q2 earning report data? It could be more attractive as old data not relecting the latest trend. Just an opinion
Yes !!!!
In this earnings report, Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down
I just did a video on it
Beware !
Main stream financial News is a giant scam 😂
Funny 'mental miss calibration..... I'll track and be back to grade this forecast
Nvda head and shoulders in play
All sane ppl know this. Good analysis 👍
looking at the history MSFT was .19cents in 1986. today it is $318. so let the data speak for itself.
Love your strategy and style. As a value investor we definitely think the same. However honest question why do you use EBIDA? It is not the best.
You can manipulate gross margins but you can’t manipulate free cash flow..
Really kicking myself for not buying it last fall
their trailing 12 months net income is ~10 billion so far in 2023. stock comp is 3 billion. Their projected growth is 200% in 2024.
They have a monopoly on AI accelerators, through both software and hardware superiority, which are forecasted to growth at least 30% CAGR over the next 10 YEARS.
AI will be a 10+ trillion dollar industry in the next 20/30 years that will disrupt every industry. Computing power needed for AI is exponentially increasing and all companies are desperate today to win the AI race.
Companies are valued on future cashflows, not past.
It’s about the multiple applied to those cash flows. And this one is over valued
@@CstewartCFA That may be the case, but analyst are projecting 11 EPS and 16 EPS in 2024 & 2025 alone. This would be it at a ~30 PE in 2025. I don't think this stock is as overvalued as many make it out to be
Thank you for this video. How do you analyze growing companies such as OM and RBLX?
I can't pull the trigger on NVDA either. So many are saying it is going to be 2 trillion valuation while having 60 billion in revenue by 2025. How does that even make sense? These are from people who consider themselves quality financial analysts. Just looney.
can you revisit this topic? it's aged very poorly. curious what your thoughts are now. i definitely think its a bubble at these levels
Where is the follow up to this video? Why don’t you have the guts to continue calling out NVDA? Just cause the price skyrocketed since this video doesn’t mean you go silent…there have have been numerous red flags on nvda’s earnings reports and I’d like to hear your thoughts on NVDA again.
Nvidia normally has a 20%+ net profit margin. They have money to pay the employees.
Started to sell once it got over 450. Looks too high, my it ppl tell me nvidia position/platforms will be challenged by other competitors once next gen stuff hit mainstream. 2-5 years down the road.
No offence but I doubt it. The competition is really thin and Nvidia is going even further in front....
@@venice2823I also think the stock will split in the near future
Which website is this that you are using for analysis?
Time to go short?
Question is when. Tesla was/is waaay overvalued and shorts got their asses handed to them for years.
This didnt age well.
thanks Cameron, would love to see one on ATD - Couche tard
But you told us the same a few months ago when it was going down. We listened and missed the boat. I get it, you are value investors, this stock has never been a value play even when it was $30 stock. I agree, this stock belongs to the $80 area, but the stock market is run by manipulators (Wallstreet, Hedge funds, etc.), they will pour gas whenever they like, nothing you can do about it.
Cvs plunged.
You are very knowledgeable on the numbers/charts, but not on the core fundamentals of Nvidia's products that have little or no competition in the five segments they dominate. AI is happening now with Nvidia selling every high margin AI chip TSMC can make with a backlog going into 2024. None of your comparisons apply to Nvidia.
How many times do you have to be wrong with NVDA before you stop? You should know evaluation methods and assumptions aren’t linear across all companies. You don’t understand some of the companies you make videos on well enough to apply as many valuations as you do.
nvda is the biggest bubble on nasdaq
nope , hedge funds are closing their puts
Well Put them back 😂
Turns out it was cheap. It’s important to understand the product, market, and their competitive advantages.
Please review PYPL😢
Stock's doubled since
Tripled.
If you realize how big AI will be in the coming years and that Nvidia is on top of that beast, then 70 times earnings isn't that crazy.
It's a bubble. AI wont solve issues that we have in the world. Multiple repeatable things that can be achieve/teached to AI can allready be done without massive AI-backbone. At the moment AI is just very expensive game of guessing the right word. Actually this AI bubble has become more of an security risk cause there is chance it can be teached to decrypto things. This is very dangeous specially what comes to global power politics.
Seems rational. Your arguments I mean. NVDA valuation is irrational 😂
Can you make a retake video on Nvidia valuation post the latest earnings and guidance? They are expecting 20% growth per quarter till end of the year which would bring them to close to 15 eps for the full year
Finally someone asking the right question 🫡
Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down
I just did a video on it
Beware !
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looks like it is going to reach 850 after the earning report
Nvidia guidance for 2024 n 2025 is down
I just did a video on it
Beware !
Main stream financial News is a giant scam 😂
Nvidia is gonna make everyone soooo rich
Would have been an informative video if it wasn't inaccurate because Nvidia is trading at less than 30X forward. Also you said their stock based compensation reduces their free cash flow, which it doesn't, it just dilutes the shares. Lastly that 2024 projected ebita is way too conservative, they're going to produce that ebita in each quarter from now forward.
Nvidia normal ebitda cagr is 25% (over 20 years mind you, not sure how you guys just noticed...) but sure... Let's drop it down to 5%. Yes, they did 25% off of video game nerds, but they can't keep that up with a huge ai revenue base unlocked... /s.
I'm so tired of the bulls shouting anyone down that does not buy this ridiculous valuation.. we are in 2000-2001 bubble territoty all over again... Thank you for this logical analysis
I hope you are right. All assets need to crash.
@@chiragmehta8212 2022
You think Nvidia sales peaked on $800 crypto gpus, when they're about to sell H100 for 20-40k..... Lol.... This is why you don't follow headlines. Crypto boom is nothing compared to the ai revenue Nvidia is about to recognize. The gpus are already sold out for 2 years... They just have to be delivered....