Retire off Palantir [PLTR] by 2030... How Many Shares??
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- Опубліковано 17 січ 2022
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How many PLTR shares would you need to retire in 2030?
In this video I break down 4 different scenarios to find the answer to that question.
Here is a link to the spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
Let me know if you notice any crucial errors and I can fix it / update it.
#pltr #palantir #retire
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A couple points of clarification:
- This is a thought experiment. It's a 'what if' calculation. Obviously putting all your eggs in one basket is risky and I am not literally suggesting that people should pin their entire retirement plans on PLTR. While I am a PLTR bull and it's my single largest investment in an individual stock, the majority of my net worth is tied up in real estate and long-term, broad index investments.
- I did not factor in taxes because it's too complicated depending on different jurisdictions & tax rates. So, either assume that this all occurs within a Roth IRA / TFSA OR make a copy of the spreadsheet and add in your own personal tax bracket.
What is your current profit/loss on PLTR ?
@David D Not big enough!
Why did you not sell it, and buy more, cheaper... Also, why make a video if your going to put a disclamer in the description. You are falsely leading so many people in the wrong direction. Worst analysis
@@MarkFarfan just seeing this video .Should I buy now
As an lnvesting enthusiast, I often wonder how top level investors are able to become millionaires off investing. . I’ve been sitting on over $545K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here, is it a good time to buy into stocks or do I wait for another opportunity?
I think the safest strategy is to diversify investments. Like spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation.
Angela Lynn Schilling is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her a message. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I bought NVDA shares at $300, $475 low and 450% up, I kept adding in the managed holdings. i’m currently doings the same for PLTR and innovative equities. I wouldn't be surprised if they keep going higher.
NVIDIA hitting the scene so far! You definitely crushing it
Spot on! How effective is your managed tradings and which stocks wave should I consider on my fidelity right now?
Ma’am stocks is not only about anticipating moves based off trends but anticipating through participating behind real top performers and attain how they execute perfectly.
coach Frost hilda take good care of my holdings giving me an edge to successful interest.
l've been getting suggestions to use a proper enlightened top tier, similar to your viewpoint.
I’m trying to figure out your selected holdings at the moment
I currently own tech equities and ETFs constructively, having gained full insight. In terms of price to earnings ratio (P/E ratio) NVDA, PLTR, AMD and few others has been my main growth drivers in my holdings. Feel free to imitate my steps with a high achiever.
Been beating myself up a bit that I sold my 603 shares of PLTR at $33 each back in May 2023. Now thinking of liquidating a few other investments to rebuy but afraid to do so. I also currently have 500k in Retirement accounts making me next to nothing.
Everyone needs a Margin of Safety in their portfolios and just remember, It's time in the market versus timing the market.
De-risk your portfolios, shore up your core holdings, and take some profits while balancing your portfolio allocations. I’d also suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
this is all new to me, How do I find a suitable fiduciary, can you recommend any?
*Jennifer Leigh Hickman* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find a webpage and necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I appreciate this. After curiously searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Rose Strayer
I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
Her good reputation already speaks for her .I’m also one of the beneficiary of Natalie Strayer. So happy I gave it a trial after being skeptic of the process.
I'm happy that u made this video. I've been doing the math for PLTR for retirement at work on my down down. :)
Great video. When I bought my position I had the high scenario in mind. 250 billion is reasonable provided we start getting these large network effects going
Always glad to come across Palantir videos, I have been holding for almost 2years now. Once the Price dropped under the $10-$9 mark I grabbed up as much as I was willing to risk and have been just dollar cost averaging throughout the run. AMD, MU, TSM and PLTR biggest gains so far.
Great video.. perfect timing... with very little fiat left after the never-ending dips, I was torn on how much to add to my pltr and other positions in my retirement account. The excel sheet is really helpful!
Glad you found it useful! I’m also running out of cash and the dip just keeps dipping!
Appreciate the transparency. Going to add some to these lows
Great analysis, thanks!
I hv to say love this kind of content
Thanks I enjoyed hearing about all the possable 2030 share prices
Glad you enjoyed it!
First time viewer. Loved the format ! Subscribed.
Cheers!!
I think by 2030 or a little further on with Palantir you could even be receiving quite a decent dividend. They have a high margin business which seems it will end up being very profitable. If so they'll accumulate cash and have to either spend it on acquisitions ,, buy back shares or pay out in dividends. Hoarding cash is not a good investment
Excellent idea/ goal and breakdown!! Can you please do the same breakdown video using other stocks?? Am looking forward to it!!
Got a new one coming out today! Glad you enjoyed it :)
Nice work!!I am looking to throw a few extra bucks in my pocket over the next five years!!So it looks like PLTR may be the stock for me!!MakIng that first $100,000.00 is the toughest after that its cake...retirement is ok but I guarantee you will still be in the big show...
Simplicity is our key to be free. I have a stuff addiction cars, houses, tools. Downsizing is much more challenging than endlessly accumulating.
Agreed! The required amount could be far lower if we implemented some financial minimalism
Great stuff! I made a similar video using Tesla stock. For me that is my endgame, but I am starting a position in PLTR because it is getting "stooopid" cheap according to my own analysis.
If that was the winter storm in Toronto last week. I am completely with you lOL. I wanna retire. I am holding PLTR under 15.
Yeah! Ottawa, but same diff. Get me outta here
🔥🔥🔥 - gotta have that long term mindset
That's right! No day trading here
You really are holding the bag. This is very proactive of you..... pump it, pump it!
3200 @ 24.50 not even worried at 50% loss. Palantir is the future. Big wigs want it cheap so they’re trying to get rid of everybody. Oldest game in the book. Holding until stars align. Always worked for me! My biggest successes comes from stocks that dropped 50%+ before making me money. Know the game!
It’s only a loss if you sell ;)
Why do You think palantir is future? Love to hear your thoughts! 😊👀
you still holding?
@@xshakespearex1 Absolutely! DCA’d down.
I purchased 3000 shares the day of the direct listing for about a $11 a share. I have a decent amount in my 401(k), this is more or less my hopeful lotto ticket.
5900 @ $11.74.
What got you balls enough to do that? Barely anything was known about the company at that time. And that was a time that every spac and IPO was going up 50% to 100% in a week. This one on that frame set looked like an absolute dud
Moderna stock went from $20 to over $300 in a year. Hopefully our beloved PLTR will do the same or more 🙏🙏🙏
Don’t think like this, I’m all in trust me this is not how you should think
Very tough to compare - apples and oranges! And Moderna had a pretty MASSIVE catalyst, as we know... not sure Palantir could see that kind of rapid price appreciation so don't hold your breath :)
@@MarkFarfan very true... people forced to take medicine ...equals massive catalyst
Don't look at it as a means to an end
Palantir Technologies Inc? Are you referring to these one? I’m new to this. Just making sure.
Top quality.
I currently have 1,000 shares and looking at doubling or tripling to 2k or 3k.
In 8 years time I think stock price of Palantir will still be highly volatile / relatively unstable.
I think this company represents one of the very interesting current investments.
Palantir is one of the ten companies that I am most interested in.
Hope you’re around in 8 years
Tell me you bought PLTR at the top without telling me 😂
This didn’t age very well 😂😂😂
2600 shares @22.77 average. Hoping to double down this week if the price holds at 15ish.
Hoping to hold 5,000 shares w/ various over and under sold buys and sells until 2035 and sell them for around $1,000ish a share at that point.
You buying the dip this week? Last week I think you said you were looking to
@@MarkFarfan so looking. My money is not here yet so it's a good thing! I think I should wait for the 14 bounce anyway from how things are looking.
Lol 1k?? Bruh you’d be likely if it hits 50ish the next 5 years
@@tomastsega your speaking too smart for the fan club
@@tomastsega You're right, I'm just joking I hope it never goes above $5, because I'll have like 100,000 more shares over the next five years! I'm really looking forward to the next 2600 block to print. Money should be here this week, but if not by next week, and I'm going to fire my Trustee for making me wait for my money! Wow did she fail on timing.
I've never bought more than 500 shares of a company at once. 2600 shares of PLTR coming up in the next week. Hurry up Trustee if you want to keep my money, you better give me the money I told you to give me.
So how is your portfolio doing one year later
Might be smart to increase the number of shares over time. Consider stock based compensation.
That's what the 2%/ year issuance rate is! In any case, the currrent SBC is coming from shares that were set aside at DPO, the total float hasn't changed since the company went public
All my crypto gains from this bull cycle went all into pltr
Ouch
@@Iron_Sharpens_Iron why? Palantir isn't a day trade for me.
Yolo!
What a mistake you make lol
@@mentalframer Well see, i'll come back to this coment in 8 to 10 years.
This is a good story. What’s your view on share outstanding and dilution by the founders?
very conservative, which I like in a long term forecast on a growth company. It’s not a “100$ in a year” with no numbers behind it. Solid stuff man
Cheers, thanks for watching!
I hold the bag on this stock mid 20's 6000 shares if it hits between 100 to 150. I could live with a 3 -4 % of that money per year in my native country where everything is a lot cheaper.
How many shares are you currently holding my man? Love the content and the Canadian creators always get an extra nod from me. A sub from a fellow Canuck
Welcome to the channel. And slightly under 1000 shares right now - hoping to pick up some more over the next few weeks & months
I would think that 5,000 shares of Palantir is a nice round number to hold (or to build up).
Love it! Was wondering if you could cover NNDM too? I’m starting to hear a lot of chatter on that again and I see a lot of value in it bcs of that billion dollar pile of cash they have
I haven't done analysis on that company! Perhaps at some point in the future... Thanks for watching :)
whois holding palating? still think it was a good investment?
Great video.... what program do you use to show illustrations and articles while you chat ?
My editing software is Final Cut Pro!
@@MarkFarfan awesome... im currently at about 2,000 shares w cost basis avg around 17 gonna be a buyer and holder lol
Great video!
Thanks!
Ok, the only problem i see with the math is that in one statement the realistic goal of collecting the total amount of shares over 8 years is the goal, then the total cost of the total amount needed is projected to cost the amount if bought all at today's price. If the scenario of growth is correct, the price to accumulate the stock over time will also be substantially more.
This is true. I can't predict what cost basis it would take to acquire that many shares! I used today's prices simply to illustrate how much it would cost to buy those shares NOW, but yes it would likely cost more over time.
Is this including income from selling Covered calls if you own enough shares to do covered calls?
I can see where PLTR is going and hold a bunch. Planning to retire on one stock is a fools errand. Stick 1m in a vanguard fund and collect $200k /yr based on a 20% return which is what they have returned on avg over 10yrs. No risk diversified
When one retires its often a smart idea to move into dividend aristocrats with a decent yield. If you have enough capital to earn a livable income of the dividends, you won't have to sell anything
What dividend stocks do you see holding their value let alone staying in business that long.
@@jeremymeyer5552 Microsoft
@@jeremymeyer5552 T will be around for your grandkids to inherit. Worth keeping an eye on once more details come out about the Discovery merger
Nobody can predict the future, but I feel like J&J, McDonald's, Colgate (maybe?), 3M
Those are a good jumping off point but doing ones own DD is a must.
That's right
you are so confident of PLTR!!
I’ve been doing research on the company for over a year now and the conviction just keeps building !
This was an interesting video. I like that you factored in the increasing share float. I’m a very frustrated PLTR shareholder as I keep buying dips only to see it dip again. New subscriber here.
Glad you enjoyed it!
I keep adding PLTR to my position. Solid company, could be the next Google!
Does this take into consideration the possibility of stock splits? What are your thoughts?
This assumes no stock splits! Tbh, I think stock buy-backs might be more likely than stock splits over the next few years. In any case, a stock split wouldn't affect the company's valuation or the relative % of PLTR that you own with your shares
How much longer do you have to work if you put all your money into this stock? 3X?
Planning retirement around drawing down funds over 25 years seems like a bad idea - especially if you're shooting for early retirement. I'd suggest taking a look at the 4% rule (or rule of 25).
Like your video, but just selling your stock off during retirement would be foolish.You could receive cash flow off of your existing shares by selling covered calls or puts on your existing shares. Look into this strategy, it helps you to retain your principal in the company.
the price went down today. time to stock up a bit
There is a missing scenario where Palantir is worth $400 / share, this is based on Alex Karp's own understanding of where the company is headed. He said it in an interview last year, look it up.
I use to own pltr back then at 9.90 and sold it at 24$ I might start of A new position on them
What inflation did you take into account when considering the increasing needs you will have? Aka you will be able to buy much less at year 25 of your retirement using $60k than at year 1!
The 8%/yr perpetual growth rate is inflation adjusted, so that all the figures can be presented in today's $$. The actual S&P500 growth rate (against which I've benchmarked this calculation) is something like 11%
Did you take into account inflation on the 5k you will be taking out for 25 years? Better yet what do you think the purchasing power of 5k will be in 2030 let alone 2055?
I'm at 2450 shares, definitely shooting for the Stars align scenario.
I have 500 and i thought I had alot 😂. Hope it works out well for both of us! I just got into the stock market last year in October. How long have you been doing it?
@@wardor9214 I have over 3500 now, I keep on averaging down.
Follow Tom Nash on UA-cam.
He did a video an hour ago about the fundamentals.
This will be a great opportunity, it's just going to take some patience.
@@neilmac4730 That's awesome and will do thank you!
i'm convinced. throwing all my cash in pltr tomorrow! XD
your performance % total is not supposed to be cumulative, but an average depending on cost per share
The average cost per share is irrelevant post-2030 in this calculation! The amount that it costs to acquire the shares would obviously differ depending on purchase dates but the growth rates on the total amount post -2030 are the key
Interesting, perhaps stars align level in palanter, sofi and tesla. These are my biggest holdings and probably not far out on all three. I could then perhaps look for a couple more star stocks before 2030. Now that could be a plan,
And probably get most of it into a tax free account by 2030. Have to get my calculations hat out!
Great dream Mark. I go along.
Can you do an analysis on NNDM nano dimensions?
The wife and I are sitting on 844 shares as of right now. Have about the same amount of $ in PATH, DNA and RKLB.
Great idea putting all that money in speculative growth stock in this climate. Might as well take your chances in a casino while your at it
Sorry Kurt but that is not even half of the dumbell approach that you're looking at. The other "half" is in a Top 200 Russell fund. No margin, no debt, no need for the money for at least 10 years. Will just DCA as it all goes down and then comes back up. Then it's time to get that condo on the beach in Mexico. I'll Airbnb it when I'm not using it myself.
I'm right with you on the Mexico beach dream...
Ia your assumption PLTR is going to pay dividends? Why PLTR as it's speculative. Use probability analysis and wonder if it's better to dream or buy something more realistic.
What if you sold calls on your shares every week?
I think we should to assume a moderate to high inflation as well, by 2030 the average annual expenditure to live comfortably assuming you have paid of your mortgage will probably be around $100,000/year for a family of 4. Of course this number varies from state to state/country to country.
I think the net worth of your household should be about 3 million(?) in order for you to retire comfortably and without worry.
$100K / year with no housing expenses?? What would you even be spending all that money on? The $60K/year figure includes housing and I already think it would be easily possible to live on less than that
@@MarkFarfan Insurance, healthcare, school, etc you do realise this for a family of 4 with a 4% inflation rate for the next eight years which increases prices approximately 50% from today's prices. (100k in 2030 would mean 65k today) As I said this would vary from state to state.
I have 14,000 shares of FUBO and 12,000 shares of TTCF. Should I sell covered calls and when they execute roll that cash into PLTR ?
I can’t tell you what to do with your $$!
30 months ago it was $45 - now $15. Dream on. It has taken 5 years to triple revenue, and net loss ($373 million) isnt shrinking fast. You may be good with a spreadsheet but i need more
Are you adjusting for the dilution?
Yes - assuming a 2%/year issuance rate, although no NEW shares have actually been issued so far since the company went public (rather, the stock-based compensation is coming from shares that were set aside from the total float)
If you're relying on Palantir for your retirement, you better hope your parents don't cut you out of the will...
You forgot 8 years of inflation at 6%, assuming the Fed gets a hold on inflation. 60k/y won’t be enough for 30y. Nowhere close. I mean 30y ago, college was $20k/y. Now, it’s $80k/y. Your projected 8% return is uncertain. Inflation over the next four decades is nearly certain. I also watch Tom Nash - I really like his stuff, but note that he was strongly bullish on Peloton about a year ago. He had to recant that one yesterday. I actually like Palantir and I like Tom Nash, but this kind of extrapolation just puts your thinking on rails.
It’s an inflation adjusted ROI so that all of the figures can be presented in today’s dollars!And I will be shocked if inflation continues at 6% for more than a few quarters but we’ll see
PLTR. is now like 7.00 a share . Did you sell ?
Yes good question !?
Ahead of the game ,I'm currently in for 7021 shares and i want more .it's my retirement plan 😎 im loading up on Nio and a side etf among others
Ah yes the side piece etf 😂
That's a big bet!
I like your motivation
Cold is a powerful motivator
I hope I remember to revisit this video in 2030.
Set a calendar reminder!
I have a pension that will give me 5,100 every month.. and I have as of now 233k in 401k and Stocks combined and I plan on working for another 10 yrs … putting 17% away a week into 401k … in your opinion am I on the ok right track ?? And at 50 yrs old no kids not married and in great shape.. so it’s all for me as if now
$5,000 a month I think is pretty good to live on, and great if you own your own home with no mortgage. If you're going to shop every week and spend $500 each time, well that would be stupid. $5,000 is plenty
Nice analysis, but you didn't take into account persistent inflation. At 7% yearly inflation, 60K in 2030 gives you 35K in current spending power.
7% is unlikely as a yearly inflation number.. As a plus you will also get Social Security, so maybe you don't need PLTR to fund 100% of your retirement.
oracle is a growth company ?
Can you do this for S&P 500 fund or ETF (VOO). Appreciate it!
I did! Check my channel page ;)
Fellow #PLTR investor. $60K (today’s value) is a significantly underestimated cost of living IMHO. Nevertheless, I did enjoy the vid.
Thanks! The 8%/yr perpetual growth is meant to be inflation adjusted, so that the figures can be presented in today's $$ and be easier to compare to what we already know. The actual S&P500 growth rate (against which I've benchmarked this calculation) is something like 11%
$66 in 5 years. If your young and single you can build this position but if your older with a family to look after, regularly ploughing money into a stock is riskier.
CURRENT PRICE OF PALANTIR IS 24.93 AS OF MARCH3 2024.
GREAT VIDEO AND LOOKS LIKE I WAS DEAD ON WHEN LOOKING A T THIS STOCK.
MARCH 3 2024. I ONLY HAVE 40 SHARES OF PLTR. I BETTER GET MOVING.
Could you do projection for SYM? I do have 500 shares of Palantir
Nice analysis BUT .. (a) Retirement very risky if depend on only one stock whether TSLA or PLTR, (b) WHO IS RETIRING? you or Alex Karp or other seller! I know a 26 year old got $100m from pltr - he retired - not sure you will :)
You're right, putting all your eggs in one basket is risky (especially when it's a growth stock like PLTR)! I'm not literally saying that people should do that, this is moreso a thought experiment just to see a few possible scenarios for what it would take
Anything can happen by 2030. Making price projections for PLTR is kind of pointless. If we look back 10 years ago from now, a lot of growth companies like PLTR are now bankrupt. What I can say is people shouldn't buy PLTR unless they can understand what the company actually does, & can stomach volatility. NOT because you like the ceo's hairstyle
I don’t like the CEO, but I like the business potential - government contracts. Just imagine a Microsoft buyout or Arista buyout here. I’m adding all the way down to a buck, and more if they reverse 10-1 split as long as they keep those government contracts.
This guy is out of his mind
He is in your mind now
Why?🤔
Check out the top ten market cap tech firms back in 1999. Then see how many are still around today. Buyer beware.
Palantir is no Pets dot com! This company is primed to do well in a recession / inflationary environment
"this goddamn winter storm" 🤣
I'm watching your video from Portugal right now. Can recommend 👌
Dude, you're living the dream!
Selling call options could make it so you get paid without having to sell
True!
nice , i hold 287 , will buy more
How many bags are you holding dude?
Great video. Building my portfolio now. 2 shares of Palantir currently, avg of 29$.
Dang, I got a high average too. Bad times man
@@benwilkinson7319 it is quite easy to average down a 2 stock position now.
@Bruce Bear yeah when you want to throw excess money at a falling knife stock. I bought at 18, sold at 45, back in 25, sold 35 back in at 32, then 25, 22, 18, 15. My average is 26.20. I turned 450 stocks into 800. Now hold 1200. Probably will add more, but where is the bottom. But yeah really easy haha 100 stocks, I fall 0.70 cents average usually lol
sitting on 4824 shares right now in my roth.....fingers crossed
Nice - gotta love those tax free capital gains
@@MarkFarfan will when the price goes back up 💰
Investor Fantasy...Good Luck
$70B market cap by 203 is a little over 2x from current market cap. Wouldnt it be better to invest in spy type etf and will probably 2x your investment in same time period and less risk? 2x is not worth the risk.
Agreed. It all comes down to your level of conviction about which scenario is more likely to come to pass!
PLTR South Korea, PLTR Canada, PLTR Germany, PLTR United Kingdom, PLTR Japan, PLTR Brazil, PLTR Australia, PLTR Israel, PLTR UAE, PLTR Netherlands, PLTR Norway, PLTR Italy, PLTR Denmark, PLTR France, PLTR Sweden - No point but don't try to tell me this company isn't growing.
Forgot Switzerland
@@matthiaswaage4725 I bet there are even more.
I bought the dips... Sitting on 2000 Goldnuggets here
Excellent vid on how yolo your hard earned cash on a company that has yet to become profitable.
U could say the same about tesla b4 they became profitable. Look where they are as a growth company. For the record, I am NOT saying pltr is tesla I'm just saying it's a growth stock for a reason
@@gc-yt6627 So how is that not yoloing your hard earned cash on a company that has yet to become profitable?
@@davidkoba I just reread what u said, pltr is producing operating profit and has real revenue numbers with credible customers. In terms of yoloing money, I don't agree with that either but he pinned a message showing that he is diversified
@@gc-yt6627 the video is about yoloing. Palantir has yet to post a profitable year. They will one day but that is not today. Reading comprehension is not your thing i see.
@@davidkoba and yet I just said read his pinned msg. He literally says that he does not recommend and will never yolo into a single stock
Palantir is getting beat up right now which is unfortunate. I cant wait for it to bounce back, such a great company!
agreed!
Just landed in a random point in the video and hear that an 8% perpetual growth rate is conservative. Are we reading the same dictionary and doing the same math? What does perpetual mean to you?
How can your average share cost be more than the highest price you paid
That’s just the bottom of the spreadsheet… many rows above