Markets Weekly April 13, 2024
Вставка
- Опубліковано 2 лип 2024
- #federalreserve #marketsanalysis
Inflation Data Shocks Market
Fed is Still Cutting
Bernanke visits the Bank of England
00:00 - Intro
1:19 - Inflation Data Shocks Market
5:36 - Fed is Still Cutting
10:05 - Bernanke visits the Bank of England
For my latest thoughts:
www.fedguy.com
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www.centralbanking101.com
My best seller on monetary policy:
www.amazon.com/Central-Bankin... - Навчання та стиль
Such a rare skill set to have an out of consensus view, and have it explained in a manner that an experienced market participant can appreciate, and a layperson can comprehend. You are doing magic, Joseph!
Great job as usual Joseph!
I appreciate my Cousin Joseph's weekly videos!
Joseph great video . Would appreciate your reason for so much bullishness . Thanks
You have way more understanding and experience than I, but, Im thinking higher for longer. Seems like the fed wants some ammo to be able to cut rates and not cut too soon. Im estimating 0-1 rate cut for this year.
Thank you so much JW
Thank you Joseph
Americans are good with data and softwares and money. There’s little of that in the EU (not just UK). Great vids as always 👍
I like Joseph, he is the only one who is not afraid to say that everything is just fine.
Great work Joseph, thank you for all you do!
Love the analysis. Thanks for the video. Similarly I bought on Friday as well and hope it works out.
Also agree on 3 cuts. Powell has been pretty straightforward the whole time estimating 3 cuts. The markets thought 6-7, now 0-3 and the Fed has been saying the same thing. I’ll trust their direction
Great video Joseph. First saw you speak at the CFA dinner in Calgary a few years ago and have been following ever since. Enjoy hearing your thoughts each week
Thanks! Great event and enjoyed the city
Wish these vids were in 1080p, or even 1444p. Sounds would be much better. Love these vids!
Thanks Joseph!
Great explanation of current status of PCE and CPI in US
Thank you sir for God given information
"if nothing bad happens over the weekend" - jinxed it 😅
Joseph needs an updated report. And by the way who is this one person that doesn't agree with rate cut?
just some wars going here and there, nothing to be worried about
Think the market was already expecting the counter strike
@@johnl.7754 Bitcoin didn't- diff asset obviously & new info has been put out since then. let's see
Thanks Joseph👍
Good Video Joseph. Thanks
Thanks buddy! 🇺🇸
Thank you for the update. You mentioned a video? from Omar Sharif explaining the difference between CPI and PCI. Can you post a link here?
A little more global macro would be fantastic. Just an idea. Thanks for the uodates
thank you
A hotish CPI and moderate PPI may be a positive for earnings reports.
The Bernanke / BOE thing reminds me of The Monty Python Crimson Permanent Assurance sketch. :)
Yes implies higher margins
You're a lovely man and I'm sure you are well versed with a whole bunch of fancy charts. All I got to go by is my grocery bill, rent and day to day costs. They are all going up for me. That's my view.
Government figures are clearly arbitrary and inaccurate, but are nevertheless critically important as they're used for other significant calculations, namely bond yields. So the data must still be respected and carefully considered, even if we know they're BS
Tnx!:)
King Joseph
How is a fan chart worse than a dot plot? Aren't they pretty much the same thing?
The PCE forecast you showed for march is still higher than february which was also higher than january, thus PCE is on the rise again
Glad to hear Bank of England will be improving things per Bernanke's advice. Perhaps Bank of Canada will do same.
Hello my friend Joseph
J "Arthur Burns" Powell: Inflations bumpy ride down will hit the curb and guard rails a few times but its all transitory. 😂
Wasn’t Bernanke in charge of the Fed when the GFC occurred. Leaders are paid to guess right about the future; seems to me he did not guess right.
Rebuttals will be appreciated.
good luck with ur SPX trade, i think it's to early
plz can u do for us some earnings coverage
And yet the best economists are from UK while the best traders from US.
Increases in CPI is not necessarily inflation. Also, the CPI has components that make it a lagging metric. Consider truflation rate now estimates inflation at 1.69%. China is experiencing outright deflation. Inflation stickier than expected? The inflation impulse is completely melted. The FED doesn't guide markets. The markets guide the FED. The hubris of the FED is quite remarkable. I can't think of a more fiscally irresponsible entity than the federal government. We need smaller government, smaller FED. We don't need central planners.
The BoE doesn't have an IT infrastructure problem, it has a competency problem.
And we all know why....
Come on Joseph, re BoE communications. It's not like the market listens to the Fed!
6-7 cuts in 2024! The market hasn't listened properly to Fed messaging for over 18 months now.
Hike not in the cards - foreshadowing
Joseph great info!
Core view = cutting this year.......
Air pocket = housing? 30 year lows due to rates......
What is your take on housing in relation to overall economic activity? As in, how much knock on effects as the lower home sales ripple through realtors, mortgage companies, home builders etc
Do you feel this a big cooling factor other than unemployment ?
Very interesting to hear your take on these aspects
Although there are thousands of markets and even more thousands of tertiary markets, housing in aggregate is not hurting at all at and below median housing price. For the most part, luxury housing above median price is dropping by a few points. Overall, absolutely nothing to write home about. The crash bros have people on the edge of their seats waiting for some phantom housing crash though, as those perspective investors eat opportunity cost.
It's very disgusting to see people get fearful and not take action because some yahoo gets a kick out of scaring them.
For example, the crash bros will say new housing builds are showing price reductions. Without any mention that new home builders are finally building smaller homes that don't cost as much as the larger homes. Makes total sense, but if the necessary info is not shared then it looks like housing prices are dropping. Lies of omission are still lies.
Now i know why you are called the fed guy, you know how those guys operate more than everyone else i am listening to, i don't see how they can avoid cutting in such a divisive election year, as for my country, the UK, i am sorry that we had to seek advice from Ben, anyone remembers what his job was before and during the GFC? 🤣,Even Biden shares your view on this one, cuts are coming, Thanks Jo.
But supposedly voters top concern now is inflation not economy
3 rates cut wow, if things are great in the economy why not do one cut? 3 is huge
Not everybody had bad forecasts on inflation. Bitcoin Twitter was calling it the whole time.
@Joseph. First thanks for the primer on CPI v. CPE. And the info on PPI. Bank of England is old school and unlikely to change after Ben B. Their technology is not up to date across the board. They rely on the United States to prop them up going back to Queen E in WW2. Their war in Falklands was only due to the United States. Not only with satellites but also oilers to get there. Their flagship HMS Sheffield was destroyed and the sinking was discovered by American assets and transmitted to London. Not by British Navy. In essense, Britain is sorry place and only exists due to the Monarchy. The people are little more than modern day serfs. King Charles only exists due to American dollars. They have a navy that cannot do much.
Another agent of the anti-British, anti-west demoralisation and destabilisation propaganda campaign.
0:32 ... Well - so much for "nothing bad happens over the weekend." In truth, this isn't much of an "attack." It was pretty weak and highly telegraphed. It (Iran/Israel) could even be considered, somewhat Staged and Coordinated to appease some hardliners on both sides... just so that Economies (Markets) do not fall-off a Cliff. Still I think the sell-off Monday continues. Because, as of 10:00 in morning central Europe time, it is somewhat managed bordering on incidental, still ... geopolitically ... not good news.
Oh-well ... Laa'di-daa ... 🤷♂️
Tom Lee update
first
Wang would have prevented ww3 😂
I do not understand how one can say inflation PCE is going down.... overall the trend is clearly higher. Having a wrong picture of inflation does not help the macro view. sorry for that and all the best
Something bad happened
I hope sayyy you too deyy make money ohh
Go buy the f-ing dip
"It's not CPI, it's PCE". Well, it's CPI which is a target, right? May they cut 6 times but to what effect, especially given inflation is going up...
Iran thanks you for your long, lol
?
Thank you Joseph