Kentucky Derby & Oaks Horses to Beat + Oaklawn Handicap top picks on HorseCenter
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- Опубліковано 28 сер 2024
- This week on HorseCenter Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman continue their 2024 Kentucky Derby coverage by discussing the horses each believes is most likely to win on the first Saturday in May. Your hosts do the same for the Kentucky Oaks before providing analysis and top picks for the race of the week, the Oaklawn Handicap.
Just a Touch was up on the fast pace in the Bluegrass right behind Chad Brown's rabbit 🐇 🐰
*My* *Derby* *Dozen*
1. Sierra Leone
2. Fierceness
3. Dornoch
4. Just Steel
5. Catching Freedom
6. Honor Marie
7. Resilience
8. Forever Young
9. Stronghold
10. Endlessly
11. Just A Touch
12. Encino
I will be betting 12 horses from the possible 20 but I’ll be more focused on my top 4 when I go to my local OTB.
*Sierra* *Leone*
He’s only lost once in his career and it was by a nose to Dornoch in the Remsen. He defeated Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, and Resilience who all flattered that Risen Star win when CF and HM went 1-2 in the Louisiana Derby and Resilience won the Wood.
If Sierra Leone gets a clean trip similar to a Rich Strike and Mage from the past two Derbies while Fierceness gets caught in a brutal first half at :46 or less, then Sierra Leone is catching them all. He’s the best closer in this crop especially against the horses he soundly defeated in the Risen Star.
KY Derby is probably Sierra’s best shot at winning a Triple Crown race thanks to the fast pace early on. Preakness usually favors speed and Belmont favors tactical speed and freshness. If Sierra wins the Derby but loses the Preakness, he probably won’t even be in the Belmont. He’ll be saved up for the Travers which also benefits closers like him.
I watched some Florida and Arkansas preps last night, and it seems Track Phantom is one of those Songandaprayer and Spanish Chestnut types who can set a fast enough pace to set it up for Sierra Leone. I think the 2YO champ, Fierceness, is the FASTEST horse while Sierra Leone is the most CONSISTENT. SL was one nose away at being undefeated at 4-0.
Must use in all tickets. He’s a top 3 candidate whether he wins or not.
*Fierceness*
The 2YO champ has shown to be the fastest horse in this crop so far with a 105 Beyer in the BC Juvie and a 110 in the Florida Derby. If he doesn’t bounce like Bellamy Road, he wins this race going away. Maybe by 3-5 lengths with Sierra Leone fast closing for 2nd. But it may not be that simple with 20 horses in a race.
Since 2004, six horses who ran a 110 or higher Beyer in their final prep would later fail to hit the board in the Derby: Lion Heart, The Cliff’s Edge, Read the Footnotes, Bellamy Road, Sinister Minister, and Materiality. Half of them ran in 2004. But the one good thing is Fierceness ran a 105 BSF last year. So he’s shown it’s no fluke or he’s some cheap speed like Sinister Minister was.
The knocks on Fierceness is he might get a lively pace. Horses like Track Phantom, Just A Touch, and Encino like to be on or near the lead. Dornoch, Just Steel, and Forever Young might also keep it quicker near the front. I thought the Derby pace would be slow last year but it wasn’t. Went under :46 and I already knew Verifying and Reincarnate were cooked.
Then add the knock that Fierceness has never won two races in a row. I rewatched the Champagne and Holy Bull and he faded badly in both and he was 1-5 in both. He lost a lot of money for bettors those two times he lost. Has never shown grit in those losses. He simply faded. His inconsistency makes him unreliable but you still can’t throw him out because he’s the champ and the fastest of this crop.
Fierceness is really a bad bet who offers terrible value. Another Pletcher flop in the making. But I respect his class so much, that I can’t simply throw him out. If he runs his race, he wins this by a few lengths. He defeated Muth in Cali who would later flatter him by winning the Arkansas Derby. Muth would probably be the 3rd betting choice if his trainer wasn’t suspended.
Fierceness is very sink or swim and I think his best shot at winning a TC race isn’t the Derby but the Preakness since City of Light and Quality Road never won beyond 9F. And the Preakness is the TC race I think Sierra Leone will most likely lose in like Mage did last year. Pace makes the race and a fast pace in the Derby can help closers while a speed favoring track like Pimlico favors speedy horses.
I believe by post time, Fierceness will be the favorite but slightly over Sierra Leone. A lot of handicappers will realize he’s the class of this crop thanks to the 105 and 110 BSFs that they will drop big money on him late but then watch him lose as the chalk like he did in the Champagne and Holy Bull. Then he may avenge Sierra Leone in the Preakness.
Fierceness could be better played against if you think the pace will be brutal but it would not shock me either way if he wins by daylight or runs off the board. His name might be FIERCEness but he hasn’t shown that in his two losses.
*Dornoch*
I was ready to toss Dornoch because we rarely see a Derby winner fail to hit the board in their last prep and he did that running 4th in the Blue Grass. Sierra Leone got his sweet revenge on him. But Dornoch remains the only horse who defeated Sierra Leone.
The 2023 Remsen looked like the 1966 Chicken Flamingo won by Buckpasser. But Buckpasser was just lazy. How Dornoch won it was from pure determination. The thing is, he never crossed paths with Fierceness. Dornoch won the Fountain of Youth but wasn’t in the Holy Bull or FL Derby. But he has crossed paths with Sierra Leone twice drawing with him at 1-1.
Think last year when Mage kept losing to Forte in Florida. Then Forte gets scratched in Kentucky and Mage ends up winning. Dornoch is the full brother to Mage but they have opposite running styles. It would be cool if we see two full brothers win B2B Derbies. Good Magic and Puca should be proud parents. The Super Magic Bros.! Curlin on top and Big Brown on the bottom. Dornoch is bred to run at 10F.
*Just* *Steel*
1988: Winning Colors
1995: Thunder Gulch
1996: Grindstone
1999: Charismatic
D. Wayne Lukas, baby, Yeah, I know he hasn’t won a Derby in this century. A new generation doesn’t even know who the hell he is anymore. It’s been 25 years since Charismatic. But Muth isn’t in the race and Just Steel just happened to finish 2nd behind him in Arkansas with a 95 BSF which is higher than Stronghold’s SA Derby (89) and Encino’s Lexington (94). And the final eighth closing time in Arkansas was very fast at 12 and change.
Just Steel might be the Justify son to watch over Just A Touch. He seems to be improving in every race. He’s big similar to his dad. He wore blinkers similar to Thunder Gulch. Just Steel is just a flyer. Willing to throw $5 on him at 25-1. Be a great story if D. Wayne Lukas won another Derby at 88, his first since the “1900s”….
It’s NOT going to be a two-horse race between Fierceness vs. Sierra Leone 🇸🇱. The form tells you Fierceness wins by open lengths with SL closing for 2nd. But Fierceness could be like Holy Bull in 1994 and Point Given in 2001. And Sierra Leone has never hit over 100 in his BSFs and the median average is around the mid 90s in these final preps which is where many horses are. There’s 20 horses and anything can happen in a race like that.
I will have money for every horse in my Derby Dozen but my top 4 will be my main focus on Star Wars Day. My top 4 for May 4.
*Derby/NBA Finals* *Parlays*
Whichever 12 horses I listed wins the KYD.
Celtics wins East and Lakers wins West.
Whichever 12 horses I listed wins the KYD.
Celtics wins East and Nuggets wins it all.
Just Steel should be 50-1
Thanks y’all
I definitely like the Risen Star significance as of late. Particularly the 1st and 3rd place horses in the Risen Star have hit the trifecta in the Derby. Epicenter/Zandon. Angel of Empire/Two Phil's. I'll be playing Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom for sure. It's also hard to discount the significance of the Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby. 9 of the last 12 years, the horse who crossed the finish line first in Kentucky, came out of Santa Anita/Florida.
Fierceness-Just Steel exacta!!!!
Hope you're feeling better Matt...gotta be on your toes for the Derby! Thanks for the picks once again...🏇🏆💯
This looks like a rivalry building up between fierceness and Sierra Leone just like easy-goer and Sunday silence
Everyone is sleeping on Just Steel... this is a consistent runner and The Coach D. Wayne Lucas has the experience to win the Derby. If the Derby has a pace meltdown, I can see a scenario where Just Steel gets first run and hangs on from a hard charging Sierra Leone to the wire.
Not sleeping on him don't like him to win but has decent shot in the underneath slots 2nd 3rd or 4th SL isn't the only big closer he will be co chalk with the FLA Derby winner I'll be looking to beat both of them for the win
Forever young don't sleep on him.
Sierra leone is my pick.
Feel better Matt
Feel better MATT. TRY SOME LASIX WITH YOUR TEA.
Mystik Dan will be on all my Tickets (If) it rain's
My pick is Encino to win and Sierra Leone. If Encino, who has 40 points now, gets into the KY Derby, I think he will win because history does repeat and in 2016 Nyquist won the KY Derby whom Celino was sired off and Gun Runner came in 3rd whom Sierra Leone is sired from. If Celino doesn't run in the Derby he might be in the Preakness. I love Celino and had him to win in the Lexington.
Chad Brown's shenanigans in the bluegrass made Sierra Leone look better than he is, sure he will make his run, but I see him hanging like a clothespin late, I can't wait to see if I'm right, if I am, I'm getting paid 😊
All The Final Prep Races The Winners All Had To Excerpt A Lot Of Energy Excepting Fierceness Whom Won On A Canter Without Bein Wiped Or Ridden By His Jockey, Whom By The Way Is The Greatest In Modern Times And He’s Not Only Aiming At The Kentucky Derby Which He As Won But The Triple Crown To Put The Icing On His Lustrous Riding Career The Very Very Great 👑 🏆 King Johnny V 🏆👑,,,,🏰🇺🇸🇯🇲 Mr. KeenObserVatioN PhD,🇯🇲🇺🇸🏰
you can't have fierceness 2nd he's #1 or not in the top 5 you gotta take a stand. but sierra l has to be 1-2.
Sierra Leone And Forever Young, So Oerrated! Neither Have A Chance Against Fierceness!
You Can’t Have Fierceness Anything But 1St!
Fiercenesses body language in 100 %.
SORRY BUT YOUR COACH WAYNE LUKAS IS NO LONGER THE AUTHORITY HE USED TO BE WITH THOSE GREAT HORSES HE HAD. HIS HORSE CAN HANDLE THE TOP OF THE CLASS HORSES LIKE SIERRA LEONE OR FIERCENESS AND THE OTHERS. NICE TRY BUT THE ONLY HOPE LUKAS HAS IS TO HIT THE BOARD MAYBE A LUCKY 3RD.
Fierceness Is The Return Of Flightline, And Will Not Only Win The Kentucky Derby But Also The Preakness And The Belmont Stakes And The Breeders Cup Classic And The Dubai World Cup, Leaving The Travers And The Pegasus For The Others To Fight Over, And Will Return As A Four Year Old And Defend His Breeders Cup Classic,,,,Ps,,Don’t Be Fooled Fierceness Is The Only True And Real Speed In The Kentucky Derby, His Beyer Supersede Them All, The Only Danger Is Those Two Unknown Japanese Horses With Both Undefeated A No Record Of Their Races,,,,🏰🇺🇸🇯🇲 Mr. KeenObserVatioN PhD,🇯🇲🇺🇸🇯🇲
Flightline is a mature six year old horse. He's a big 6.2 hands tall. Fierceness is a young three year old and is slightly built. I don't find any reference to his height. Do you know how tall he is?
Delusional 🤣 🤣 🤣
He's due for a flop