Information format cause people perceive risk differently. I am agree. But base rate of current health outcomes is sufficiently high to merit attention. But risk literacy is at present more important than to listen news we never will understand.
Imagine if our risk illiterate politicians had applied some of what he talks about here.. What he says stands and is especially poignant. People overestimate threat and risk as a defense mechanism. The world's gone mad.
Takeaway: Percentages are easily misunderstood, so when someone talks about risk, ask for the absolute terms e.g. thrombosis went from 1 in 7000 to 2 in 7000 rather than went up by 100% the later relative terms in percentages are normally interpreted out of context and lead to panic in this case, and other times is deliberately misused to sell products or pursue private agendas.
Very good points! However, I find it interesting that in a video where he speaks about how presenting numbers a certain way can distort how accurately the risk is perceived, he says the number of deaths from the flu each year are 10,000. That sounds like a lot before you do the math and find that is less than 1 in every 30,000 people. And that's without realizing that most infections and deaths happen in highly populated urban areas like NYC. So if you live in NYC your risk may be more like 1 in every 15,000 while in Kansas, your risk may be more like 1 in every 60,000.
Believing 10,000 is a lot is a subjective opinion. His subjective opinion may differ. For example, he may believe that's a small number considering the number of people in the world etc. Very interesting video!
@@Soniboivs Exactly my point. He (I assume inadvertantly) missed the actual way to avoid misrepresenting data--by using the magic words my professors and some other researchers use--"out of...." It doesnt matter how objective we try to be ig we don't give the exact statistics of blank out of blank instead of just using percentages and such. It allows people to make up their own minds instead of things usually are where the presenter of the data may mean well but presents in a way that is biased by subjectivity. There's a reason organizations like the CDC record and show the EXACT numbers, not just the percentages.
As a coach and marketer, this is a constant battle I have to face. Marketing misleads people on the wrong paths sometimes, and then coaching tries to bring them back to the right path. Advertisement literally means to advert/direct attention to something- usually the best part of something. So, advertisement and marketing are literally dramatization and twisting of reality. Most advertisement/marketing is done to make money and sell products, not to actually improve the life of the people or the world. As marketing progresses, Rory Sutherland, Thaler, Kanhmen, etc are doing some good work that can use behavioral guidelines and better way to persuade and market things to people. Hopefully.
background incidence of VTE during pregnancy of approximately 1/1,000 deliveries per this source: Bates SM, Greer IA, Middeldorp S. Venous Thromboembolism, thrombophilia, antithrombotic therapy and pregnancy: Antithrombotic therapy and prevention of thrombosis, 9th ed: American College of Chest Physicians Evidence- based clinical practice guidelines. Chest 2012;141:e691s-736s.
Risk illiteracy is the single most important and most overlooked neurosis of society and government. It needs to be changed. More lives would be saved and for the least amount of money. Mankind would live in less fear. I love this message and it promoted me to buy one of his books. I challenge anyone to come up with a more effective solution to make civilization better and safer.
Correction: Risk illiteracy is the single most important and most overlooked neurosis of INDIVIDUALS. It is ONLY INDIVIDUALS who are to blame, who are at fault, who are responsible for the phenomenal hypocrisy & stupidity of their actions, their decisions, their choices, their habits, especially their VOTING habits. Even if it's one billion individuals all having the same illogical in risk analysis, it is STILL EACH of those one billion individual's fault & responsibility.
i love Gert's talks, i recommend further that everyone learns the principals of Bayes Theorem,
he finished with two and a half minutes to spare! looks like he correctly assessed the risk of crossing the time limit.
Information format cause people perceive risk differently. I am agree. But base rate of current health outcomes is sufficiently high to merit attention. But risk literacy is at present more important than to listen news we never will understand.
its so mind blowing!!!
Fantastic!
The flu pandemic that never occur?
That comment aged well..
Imagine if our risk illiterate politicians had applied some of what he talks about here.. What he says stands and is especially poignant. People overestimate threat and risk as a defense mechanism. The world's gone mad.
@@ofuel8037 i assure you, our politicians are highly risk literate
Risk literacy is hugely important to business, but American businesses are too arrogant and corrupted by extreme rationalism.
Takeaway: Percentages are easily misunderstood, so when someone talks about risk, ask for the absolute terms e.g. thrombosis went from 1 in 7000 to 2 in 7000 rather than went up by 100% the later relative terms in percentages are normally interpreted out of context and lead to panic in this case, and other times is deliberately misused to sell products or pursue private agendas.
Such a good talk. It certainly deserves (and needs) more views!
Thanks, that really put things into perspective... STEP OUT OF THE CAR IF YOU WANT TO LIVE
"Everyone who dares to know"...fantastic!!!
Very good points! However, I find it interesting that in a video where he speaks about how presenting numbers a certain way can distort how accurately the risk is perceived, he says the number of deaths from the flu each year are 10,000. That sounds like a lot before you do the math and find that is less than 1 in every 30,000 people. And that's without realizing that most infections and deaths happen in highly populated urban areas like NYC. So if you live in NYC your risk may be more like 1 in every 15,000 while in Kansas, your risk may be more like 1 in every 60,000.
totally right
Believing 10,000 is a lot is a subjective opinion. His subjective opinion may differ. For example, he may believe that's a small number considering the number of people in the world etc. Very interesting video!
@@Soniboivs Exactly my point. He (I assume inadvertantly) missed the actual way to avoid misrepresenting data--by using the magic words my professors and some other researchers use--"out of...." It doesnt matter how objective we try to be ig we don't give the exact statistics of blank out of blank instead of just using percentages and such. It allows people to make up their own minds instead of things usually are where the presenter of the data may mean well but presents in a way that is biased by subjectivity. There's a reason organizations like the CDC record and show the EXACT numbers, not just the percentages.
What a marvelous speaker!!
As a coach and marketer, this is a constant battle I have to face. Marketing misleads people on the wrong paths sometimes, and then coaching tries to bring them back to the right path. Advertisement literally means to advert/direct attention to something- usually the best part of something. So, advertisement and marketing are literally dramatization and twisting of reality. Most advertisement/marketing is done to make money and sell products, not to actually improve the life of the people or the world. As marketing progresses, Rory Sutherland, Thaler, Kanhmen, etc are doing some good work that can use behavioral guidelines and better way to persuade and market things to people. Hopefully.
really good talk!
We even used this in a lecture about risk in medical school. They started teaching it after all :)
Build your life on the Truth, the king james bible, ... or build on lies. It's your choice.
background incidence of VTE during pregnancy of approximately 1/1,000 deliveries per this source: Bates SM, Greer IA, Middeldorp S. Venous Thromboembolism, thrombophilia, antithrombotic therapy and pregnancy: Antithrombotic therapy and prevention of thrombosis, 9th ed: American College of Chest Physicians Evidence- based clinical practice guidelines. Chest 2012;141:e691s-736s.
Risk illiteracy is the single most important and most overlooked neurosis of society and government. It needs to be changed.
More lives would be saved and for the least amount of money. Mankind would live in less fear.
I love this message and it promoted me to buy one of his books.
I challenge anyone to come up with a more effective solution to make civilization better and safer.
+SeeSawMacaw Hi there, Is Risk Savvy one of his books
Correction: Risk illiteracy is the single most important and most overlooked neurosis of INDIVIDUALS.
It is ONLY INDIVIDUALS who are to blame, who are at fault, who are responsible for the phenomenal hypocrisy & stupidity of their actions, their decisions, their choices, their habits, especially their VOTING habits.
Even if it's one billion individuals all having the same illogical in risk analysis, it is STILL EACH of those one billion individual's fault & responsibility.
Good info the best info that i've ever had was with the Fergs Treatment Crusher (just google it) - definately the most useful info i've followed.
Amazing talk! Fully agree with the sentiment 👍
fascinating talk and control on speech
this was never more relevant!
Very good talk!
🕊
what a cool dude
the whole session was very nice 👌🏻
Why are people laughing at the most inappropriate times? I didn't find anything funny in his talk
Another way of Aha moments ? When they come to their senses
Excellent video!
Hey everyone, the best info that ive ever had was by following the Fergs Treatment Crusher (just google it) - I found it the no.1 info i've seen.
what does this have to do with the subject?